Charlie Cook’s Keys to 2020 Insights into the 2020 election landscape visualized by National Journal’s Presentation Center June 11, 2019 Moderator Daniel Stublen Speaker Charlie Cook President Trump’s approval rating is currently lower than recent presidents when they were re-elected Approval ratings of re-elected presidents RATINGS AT COMPARABLE POINTS IN PRESIDENCES, TRUMP RATING CURRENT AS OF JUNE 3, 2019 ■ Clinton ■ W. Bush ■ Obama ■ Trump 90% Approval at reelection: W. Bush: 53% Obama: 50% 80% Clinton: 57% 66%, W. Bush, Trump approval: 40% 2002 midterm 70% 60% 47%, Obama, 2010 midterm 50% 40% 43%, Clinton, 38%, Trump, 1994 midterm 30% 2018 midterm 20% Jan '17 May '17 Sep '17 Jan '18 May '18 Sep '18 Jan '19 May '19 Sep '19 Jan '20 May '20 Sep '20 Sources: Gallup Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 10, 2019 2 Trump’s approval rating is between the last two presidents who did not win reelection Approval ratings of presidents who were not re-elected RATINGS AT COMPARABLE POINTS IN PRESIDENCES, TRUMP RATING CURRENT AS OF JUNE 3, 2019 ■ Carter ■ H.W. Bush ■ Trump 90% Approval at reelection loss: Carter: 31% H.W. Bush: 42% 80% Trump approval: 40% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Jan '17 May '17 Sep '17 Jan '18 May '18 Sep '18 Jan '19 May '19 Sep '19 Jan '20 May '20 Sep '20 Sources: Gallup Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 3 Major polls show Trump’s “strong disapproval” higher than “strong approval” Trump job approval, by intensity ■ Strongly approve ■ Somewhat approve ■ Don’t know/Not sure ■ Somewhat disapprove ■ Strongly disapprove Fox News 28% 18% 1% 9% 44% May 11-14, 2019 NBC/WSJ 29% 17% 3% 10% 41% April 28-May 1, 2019 ABC News/ Washington Post 28% 12% 6% 9% 45% April 22-25, 2019 Election National Exit Poll 31% 14% 1% 8% 46% Nov. 6, 2018 Sources: Fox News, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 4 National polling on voters’ intentions to re-elect Trump ■ Definitely voting to re-elect ■ Don’t Know ■ Considering/probably voting for Democrat/someone else ■ Considering/probably voting to re-elect ■ Definitely voting for Democrat/someone else NPR/PBS Marist, 36% 13% 51% May 31-June 4, 2019 ABC News/ Washington Post, 28% 14% 3% 55% April 22-25, 2019 Grinnell College/ Selzer and Co. 35% 3% 17% 45% Nov. 24-27, 2018 Fox News, 28% 10% 9% 7% 46% May 11-14, 2019 NBC/WSJ, 27% 14% 11% 15% 33% Feb. 24-27, 2018 *Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding Sources: NPR/PBS Marist, Grinnell College/Selzer and Company, Fox News, NBC/WSJ, ABC News/Washington Post Danari White | Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 5 Percent of people who “strongly approve” of Pres. Trump 2016 Trump voters 64% Republican Men 60% Republicans 60% Republican Women 60% Conservatives 52% White Evangelicals 51% White men without College Degree 37% Rural Whites 37% White Men 36% White Men with College Degree 36% Rural voters 35% Whites with no College Degree 34% Age 45+ years of age 34% Men 32% Whites 32% White Women With No College 31% Whites with College Degree 30% $50,000+ income 29% All Voters 28% White Women 28% Under $50,000 income 26% Urban 25% Women 24% Suburban 23% Under 45 years of age 20% Independents 17% Moderates 16% Non-whites 16% Democratic Men 8% Liberals 7% Democrats 5% Clinton voters 3% Democratic Women 2% Sources: Fox News Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 6 Percent of people who “strongly disapprove” of Pres. Trump Clinton voters 78% Democratic Women 78% Democrats 76% Liberals 76% Democratic Men 74% Non-whites 58% White Women with college degree 50% All Women 48% Under $50,000 income 48% Suburban 46% Urban 45% Moderates 45% Under 45 45% All Voters 44% White Women 43% Age 45+ 43% Whites with college degree 42% $50,000+ income 40% Whites 39% Rural voters 39% Independents 38% White Women with no college degree 38% Men 38% Rural Whites 38% Whites Without college degree 36% White Men with college degree 34% White Men 34% White Men without college degree 33% White Evangelicals 16% Conservatives 15% Republican Women 6% Republicans 5% Republican Men 4% 2016 Trump voters 4% Sources: Fox News Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 7 By Cook’s estimates, only 20% of the electorate is up for grabs Definitely voting Definitely voting Up for grabs, for Trump, against Trump, 20% 35% 45% “President Trump needs to win between 2/3 and 3/4 of the 20% that are up for grabs in order to be re-elected.” Sources: Cook Political Report Slide last updated on: March 8, 2019 8 Margin over 50% for Trump or Clinton head-to-head (independent and 3rd party candidates removed) *Clinton’s head to head margin over 50% in DC was 47.9% Sources: National Journal Research, 2019 Daniel Stublen | Slide last updated on: March 8, 2019 9 Trump’s 2016 results by state compared with Romney in 2012 (independent and 3rd party candidates removed) ■ Trump outperformed Romney ■ Romney outperformed Trump Sources: National Journal Research, 2019 Daniel Stublen | Slide last updated on: March 8, 2019 10 Candidates must secure at least 270 electoral votes to win Cook Political Report ratings 2020 ELECTORAL COLLEGE Solid to Lean R (220) Toss Ups (86) Lean to Solid D (232) 270 majority line Solid Republican 125 Likely Republican 56 Lean Republican 39 Toss Up 43 43 Lean Democrat 22 Likely Democrat 22 Solid Democrat 188 Source: Cook Political Report. Nicholas Wu | Slide last updated on: Jan. 28, 2019 86 electoral votes are in Toss Up states for the 2020 presidential election Cook Political Report: 2020 Electoral College ratings ■ Solid D ■ Likely D ■ Lean D ■ Toss Up ■ Lean R ■ Likely R ■ Solid R WA 12 VT MT ME* ND 3 3 4 OR 3 MN 7 ID 10 NH 4 SD WI NY 4 WY 3 10 MI 29 3 16 IA PA MA 11 NE* 6 20 NV OH 5 IL IN 6 UT 18 RI 4 20 11 6 CO WV CA 9 KS MO 5 VA 13 CT 7 55 6 10 KY 8 NC 15 NJ 14 TN 11 AZ OK AR 11 NM 7 SC DE 3 5 6 9 GA MS AL 16 MD 10 6 9 AK TX LA DC 3 3 38 8 FL HI 29 4 *Nebraska and Maine award two electors each to the winner of their state’s popular vote and one elector to the winner of each of their congressional districts Sources: Cook Political Report. Danari White | Slide last updated on: June 10, 2019 12 Consumer sentiment is around the same point as in 2016, but consumer confidence has increased significantly Tracking polls of consumers INDICES CALCULATED BY THE SURVEYING ORGANZATIONS ■ University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment ■ Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Sources: Conference Board, University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 13 The unemployment rate is at an almost historic low of 3.6% Monthly civilian unemployment rate PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL LABOR FORCE; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ■ Unemployment rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Sources: FRED, St. Louis Fed Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 14 Congressional results are mixed when a president wins or loses reelection President’s party gain/loss of seats in House or Senate VITAL STATISTICS ON CONGRESS ■ ■ House seats gained/lost by incumbent president’s party ■ ■ Senate seats gained/lost by incumbent president’s party 1 2012 8 Obama re-elected 4 2004 3 W. Bush re-elected -2 1996 -9 Clinton re-elected 0 1992 10 H.W. Bush not re-elected -2 1984 14 Reagan re-elected -12 1980 -34 Carter not re-elected 0 1976 -1 Ford loses election Sources: UC Santa Barbara Danari White | Slide last updated on: March 20, 2019 15 Historical partisan control of Congress after elections •House of Representatives 88TH-116TH CONGRESS 155 147 149 119 103 100 83 81 85 82 79 75 71 61 59 51 53 51 53 46 30 33 38 26 20 24 23 12 9 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 Senate 88TH-116TH CONGRESS 36 34 28 24 24 18 16 17 14 14 12 10 10 11 10 8 10 10 10 10 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 0 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 Source: United States Senate, Office of the Clerk of the House of Representatives Slide last updated on: March 19, 2018 16 Trump’s narrow victories in key states leave him vulnerable to even a small swing in 2020 10 states were decided by less than 5% ■ Clinton win ■ Trump win Clinton by 2.7% Clinton by 1.5% Trump by 1% Trump by 0.3% (19,995 votes) (44,470 votes) (27,257 votes) (13,080 votes) WA VT ME* MT ND VT-3 OR MN Clinton by 0.4% NH-4 (2,701 votes) ID SD WI NY NY WY MI IA PA Trump by 1.2% Clinton by 2.4% NV NE (68,236 votes) OH (26,434 votes) UT IL IN CO WV CA KS MO VA KY NC AZ TN Trump by 3.8% OK (177,009 votes) Trump by 3.9 % NM AR SC (91,682 votes) MS AL GA TX LA AK FL Trump by 1.2% (112,911 votes) HI *Clinton won Maine’s statewide vote, but Trump received an electoral vote for winning the 2nd district Source: National Journal research, 2019.