Black Carbon Emissions and Fuel Use in Global Shipping 2015 Acknowledgments
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BRYAN COMER, NAYA OLMER, XIAOLI MAO, BISWAJOY ROY, AND DAN RUTHERFORD BLACK CARBON EMISSIONS AND FUEL USE IN GLOBAL SHIPPING 2015 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors thank Environment and Climate Change Canada; Japan National Maritime Research Institute; Dr. Daniel Lack; National Research Council Canada; TNO The Netherlands; Transport Canada; University of California, Riverside CE-CERT; and VTT Finland for their review and advice. The authors also thank our colleagues Jen Fela, Fanta Kamakaté, Sarah Keller, and Joe Schultz for their review and support. The authors would like to acknowledge exactEarth for providing Automatic Identification System data and processing support. Thank you to the Climate and Clean Air Coalition for funding this research. International Council on Clean Transportation 1225 I Street NW, Suite 900 Washington DC 20005 USA [email protected] | www.theicct.org | @TheICCT © 2017 International Council on Clean Transportation ABBREVIATIONS AC Arctic Council AE Auxiliary engine AIS Automatic Identification System BC Black carbon BO Boiler CCAC Climate and Clean Air Coalition CCTS Clean Cam Technology System CH4 Methane CO2 Carbon dioxide DECA Domestic Emission Control Area DPF Diesel particulate filter DPM Diesel particulate matter dwt Deadweight tonnage ECA Emission Control Area EF Emission factor EGCS Exhaust gas cleaning system EGR Exhaust gas recirculation EMF Emulsified fuel EUROMOT European Association of Internal Combustion Engine Manufacturers FSN Filter smoke number GT Gas turbine gt Gross tonnage HDDI Heavy-Duty Diesel Initiative HFO Heavy fuel oil HSD High speed diesel IEA International Energy Agency IFO Intermediate fuel oil IMO International Maritime Organization kt Kilotonnes LNG Liquefied natural gas ME Main engine MEPC Marine Environment Protection Committee MSD Medium speed diesel Mt Million tonnes N2O Nitrous oxide NaOH Sodium hydroxide NOX Nitrogen oxides PAME Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment PM Particulate matter PM2.5 Fine particulate matter PPR Pollution Prevention and Response S Sulfur SO2 Sulfur dioxide SOG Speed over ground SOX Sulfur oxides SFOC Specific fuel oil consumption SSD Slow speed diesel ST Steam turbine SWS Seawater scrubbers U.S. EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency UCR University of California, Riverside WiFE Water-in-fuel emulsions i BLACK CARBON EMISSIONS AND FUEL USE IN GLOBAL SHIPPING, 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... v 1. Introduction ...........................................................................................................................1 2. Background ........................................................................................................................... 3 2.1. Black Carbon ......................................................................................................................................3 2.2. Black Carbon Control Strategies ................................................................................................4 2.3. Policy Context ..................................................................................................................................9 3. Methodology ........................................................................................................................12 3.1. Emissions Inventory ........................................................................................................................12 3.2. Estimating 2015 Fuel Consumption and Carriage ............................................................. 18 3.3. Estimating 2015 Vessel Emissions ............................................................................................ 19 3.4. Estimating Black Carbon Reduction Potential ................................................................... 28 3.5. Uncertainties ...................................................................................................................................30 4. Results and Discussion ......................................................................................................32 4.1. Fleet Characteristics ......................................................................................................................32 4.2. Time in Phase ..................................................................................................................................32 4.3. Fleet Activity and Fuel Use ....................................................................................................... 33 4.4. Emissions ...........................................................................................................................................35 4.5. Fuel Use and Carriage ................................................................................................................. 43 5. Comparison with Other Studies .......................................................................................49 6. Black Carbon Emission Reduction Scenarios..................................................................51 6.1. Scenario 1: All ships operating on residual fuel switch to distillate fuel .....................51 6.2. Scenario 2: Some ships switch to LNG from residual or distillate fuel oil ................52 6.3. Scenario 3: Some ships install exhaust gas cleaning systems ......................................52 6.4. Scenario 4: Some ships install diesel particulate filters ..................................................53 7. Policy Alternatives to Reduce Black Carbon Emissions ...............................................55 7.1. Alternative 1: Expanding or establishing more Emission Control Areas .................. 55 7.2. Alternative 2: Prohibit the use of residual fuel ................................................................... 55 7.3. Alternative 3: Establish a black carbon emission standard for ships ........................ 56 7.4. Alternative 4: Include BC in GHG reduction strategies .................................................. 56 7.5. Alternative 5: Promote vessel scrappage ............................................................................ 56 7.6. Alternative 6: Promote shore power ...................................................................................... 56 8. Conclusions .........................................................................................................................58 9. References ...........................................................................................................................62 10. Appendices .......................................................................................................................67 ii BLACK CARBON EMISSIONS AND FUEL USE IN GLOBAL SHIPPING, 2015 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Illustration of linear interpolation procedure where the speed over ground at point B is interpolated ..................................................................................................................................................14 Figure 2. Black carbon emission factors for 2-stroke engines by fuel type ...............................................20 Figure 3. Black carbon emission factors for 4-stroke engines by fuel type.................................................21 Figure 4. Time spent in each operating phase for major ship classes ..........................................................33 Figure 5. Black carbon emissions from ships in 2015 (1o x 1o resolution) ......................................................36 Figure 6. Distribution of BC emissions by latitude ...............................................................................................36 Figure 7. Share of global BC emissions by ship class...........................................................................................38 Figure 8. Proportion of black carbon emissions from main engines, auxiliary engines, and boilers for select ship classes ................................................................................................................................39 Figure 9. Black carbon emissions by main engine type and ship class, summarized by ship classes emitting the most BC, plus fishing vessels ............................................................................... 40 Figure 10. Black carbon emissions by main fuel type for the highest emitting ship classes and fishing vessels ...............................................................................................................................................41 Figure 11. Black carbon emissions by top emitting flag states ..........................................................................41 Figure 12. Tonnes of black carbon per ship per year for the highest emitting ship classes, 2015 ......... 42 Figure 13. Residual fuel use by ships in 2015 (1o x 1o resolution) ..................................................................... 44 Figure 14. Residual fuel carriage by ships in 2015 (1o x 1o resolution) ............................................................45 Figure 15. Percentage of different fuel burned, summarized by ship class.................................................47 Figure 16. Total fuel consumption by top 5 fuel-consuming flag states, summarized by ship class, 2015 ..............................................................................................................................................................47