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The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’S Revolutionary Guard
The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard SAEID GOLKAR AUGUST 2021 KASRA AARABI Contents Executive Summary 4 The Raisi Administration, the IRGC and the Creation of a New Islamic Government 6 The IRGC as the Foundation of Raisi’s Islamic Government The Clergy and the Guard: An Inseparable Bond 16 No Coup in Sight Upholding Clerical Superiority and Preserving Religious Legitimacy The Importance of Understanding the Guard 21 Shortcomings of Existing Approaches to the IRGC A New Model for Understanding the IRGC’s Intra-elite Factionalism 25 The Economic Vertex The Political Vertex The Security-Intelligence Vertex Charting IRGC Commanders’ Positions on the New Model Shades of Islamism: The Ideological Spectrum in the IRGC Conclusion 32 About the Authors 33 Saeid Golkar Kasra Aarabi Endnotes 34 4 The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi Executive Summary “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] has excelled in every field it has entered both internationally and domestically, including security, defence, service provision and construction,” declared Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi, then chief justice of Iran, in a speech to IRGC commanders on 17 March 2021.1 Four months on, Raisi, who assumes Iran’s presidency on 5 August after the country’s June 2021 election, has set his eyes on further empowering the IRGC with key ministerial and bureaucratic positions likely to be awarded to guardsmen under his new government. There is a clear reason for this ambition. Expanding the power of the IRGC serves the interests of both Raisi and his 82-year-old mentor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic. -
Flow Regime Change in an Endorheic Basin in Southern Ethiopia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3837–3853, 2014 www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/18/3837/2014/ doi:10.5194/hess-18-3837-2014 © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Flow regime change in an endorheic basin in southern Ethiopia F. F. Worku1,4,5, M. Werner1,2, N. Wright1,3,5, P. van der Zaag1,5, and S. S. Demissie6 1UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, the Netherlands 2Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, the Netherlands 3University of Leeds, School of Civil Engineering, Leeds, UK 4Arba Minch University, Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 21, Arba Minch, Ethiopia 5Department of Water Resources, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands 6Ethiopian Institute of Water Resources, Addis Ababa University, P.O. Box 150461, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Correspondence to: F. F. Worku ([email protected]) Received: 29 December 2013 – Published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: 29 January 2014 Revised: – – Accepted: 20 August 2014 – Published: 30 September 2014 Abstract. Endorheic basins, often found in semi-arid and 1 Introduction arid climates, are particularly sensitive to variation in fluxes such as precipitation, evaporation and runoff, resulting in Understanding the hydrology of a river and its historical flow variability of river flows as well as of water levels in end- characteristics is essential for water resources planning, de- point lakes that are often present. In this paper we apply veloping ecosystem services, and carrying out environmen- the indicators of hydrological alteration (IHA) to characterise tal flow assessments. -
Possible Succession Scenarios in Iran
Possible Succession Scenarios In Iran by Erfan Fard BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 2,062, June 3, 2021 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A presidential election will take place in Iran on June 18, and it is rumored that Ali Khamenei prefers one candidate above the others: Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi. While Raisi has never belonged to the IRGC, his election would nevertheless represent a victory for the hardliners. Despite his lack of religious credentials, Raisi is also considered a serious contender to succeed Khamenei as Supreme Leader. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is the main economic, intelligence, and military power in Iran. While also very strong politically, the Corps has yet to assume full power in the political sphere. The upcoming presidential elections are highly portentous for both the IRGC and the house of Khamenei. Several IRCG commanders announced their desire to run for the presidency, but only one, Mohsen Rezaee—an individual with close ties to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—was approved as a candidate and placed on the ballot. There are widespread rumors that Khamenei prefers the current Chief Justice, Ebrahim Raisi, over Rezaee for the presidency of the Islamic Republic. Rezaee was a presidential candidate in the 2017 elections but lost to the current incumbent, Hassan Rouhani. Should Raisi triumph in June, his ascent to the presidency over Rezaee would not represent a setback to the IRGC, as he too is closely linked to the Corps. It is highly likely that Raisi will indeed become the next president of Iran. The presidency is not, however, the only pressing internal matter in the country. -
Iran: 2021 Presidential Election
By Nigel Walker 5 July 2021 Iran: 2021 presidential election Summary 1 Background 2 2021 presidential election commonslibrary.parliament.uk Number CBP-9269 Iran: 2021 presidential election Image Credits Iran flag by OpenClipart – Vectors from Pixabay / image cropped. Licensed under Pixabay License. Free for commercial use. No attribution required. Disclaimer The Commons Library does not intend the information in our research publications and briefings to address the specific circumstances of any particular individual. We have published it to support the work of MPs. You should not rely upon it as legal or professional advice, or as a substitute for it. We do not accept any liability whatsoever for any errors, omissions or misstatements contained herein. You should consult a suitably qualified professional if you require specific advice or information. Read our briefing ‘Legal help: where to go and how to pay’ for further information about sources of legal advice and help. This information is provided subject to the conditions of the Open Parliament Licence. Feedback Every effort is made to ensure that the information contained in these publicly available briefings is correct at the time of publication. Readers should be aware however that briefings are not necessarily updated to reflect subsequent changes. If you have any comments on our briefings please email [email protected]. Please note that authors are not always able to engage in discussions with members of the public who express opinions about the content of our research, although we will carefully consider and correct any factual errors. You can read our feedback and complaints policy and our editorial policy at commonslibrary.parliament.uk. -
Hydrographic Development of the Aral Sea During the Last 2000 Years Based on a Quantitative Analysis of Dinoflagellate Cysts
Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 234 (2006) 304–327 www.elsevier.com/locate/palaeo Hydrographic development of the Aral Sea during the last 2000 years based on a quantitative analysis of dinoflagellate cysts P. Sorrel a,b,*, S.-M. Popescu b, M.J. Head c,1, J.P. Suc b, S. Klotz b,d, H. Oberha¨nsli a a GeoForschungsZentrum, Telegraphenberg, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany b Laboratoire Pale´oEnvironnements et Pale´obioSphe`re (UMR CNRS 5125), Universite´ Claude Bernard—Lyon 1, 27-43, boulevard du 11 Novembre, 69622 Villeurbanne Cedex, France c Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK d Institut fu¨r Geowissenschaften, Universita¨t Tu¨bingen, Sigwartstrasse 10, 72070 Tu¨bingen, Germany Received 30 June 2005; received in revised form 4 October 2005; accepted 13 October 2005 Abstract The Aral Sea Basin is a critical area for studying the influence of climate and anthropogenic impact on the development of hydrographic conditions in an endorheic basin. We present organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst analyses with a sampling resolution of 15 to 20 years from a core retrieved at Chernyshov Bay in the NW Large Aral Sea (Kazakhstan). Cysts are present throughout, but species richness is low (seven taxa). The dominant morphotypes are Lingulodinium machaerophorum with varied process length and Impagidinium caspienense, a species recently described from the Caspian Sea. Subordinate species are Caspidinium rugosum, Romanodinium areolatum, Spiniferites cruciformis, cysts of Pentapharsodinium dalei, and round brownish protoper- idiniacean cysts. The chlorococcalean algae Botryococcus and Pediastrum are taken to represent freshwater inflow into the Aral Sea. The data are used to reconstruct salinity as expressed in lake level changes during the past 2000 years. -
International Geography Exam Part 2
2018 International Geography Bee 7. Which of these Washington cities is driest due to rain International Geography Exam - Part 2 shadow? A. Seattle B. Tacoma Instructions – This portion of the IGB Exam consists of C. Bellingham 100 questions. You will receive two points for a correct D. Spokane answer. You will lose one point for an incorrect answer. Blank responses lose no points. Please fill in the bubbles 8. The Karakum Desert in Central Asia is bordered by completely on the answer sheet. You may write on the what two mountain ranges? examination, but all responses must be bubbled on the A. Ural and Atlas answer sheet. Diacritic marks such as accents have been B. Caucasus and Hindu Kush omitted from place names and other proper nouns. You C. Hindu Kush and Yin have one hour to complete this set of multiple choice D. Caucasus and Ural questions. 9. All of these contain parts of the Kalahari Desert 1. Which of these best defines the term intergovernmental EXCEPT which of the following? organization? A. South Africa A. a multinational corporation B. Kenya B. a treaty with multiple nations as signatories C. Namibia C. an organization composed of sovereign states D. Botswana established by a charter or treaty D. an international aid agency 10. All of these border the Red Sea’s western shore EXCEPT which of the following? 2. Which of the following is an example of an A. Saudi Arabia intergovernmental organization? B. Egypt A. the United Nations C. Djibouti B. the International Red Cross D. Sudan C. the Quartet D. -
Managing Expectations from Iran's Upcoming Presidential Vote
Managing Expectations from Iran’s Upcoming Presidential Vote © 2021 IAI by Sara Zanotta Iran will hold its thirteenth presidential Upon closer scrutiny, recent election on Friday, 18 June 2021. developments seem to indicate that ISSN 2532-6570 Much attention is devoted to this significant changes in Iranian policy event, due to the broad expectation should not be expected. This does not that Iran’s next president will herald detract from the importance of the from the conservative camp, replacing vote nor of the relevance of Iranian the current administration led by domestic politics more broadly. Rather, moderate-pragmatist President Hassan it underscores the need to appreciate Rouhani. how the past years have diminished differences between conservative and The election is taking place against moderate factions in Iran’s political the backdrop of ongoing international establishment. talks in Vienna on the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint This is particularly the case vis-à-vis Comprehensive Plan of Action the JCPOA and the US-backed sanction (JCPOA), and a severe economic crisis regime re-imposed on Iran and also within Iran, worsened by US sanctions extends to other important issues of and the covid-19 pandemic. Deeply Iranian policy. Having staked much of entrenched tensions with the US, as their political fortunes on the benefits well as Washington’s regional allies of engaging the US and Europe in in Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United negotiations, the moderate camp has Arab Emirates, add to the importance of suffered significant setbacks. Many of this appointment, with many watching its leading figures, including President the vote in an effort to understand its Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad impact on Iranian domestic and foreign Zarif, have consequently hardened policies. -
Iran Protests: Changing Dynamics Between the Islamic Republic and the Poor
Asian Regional Review DiverseAsia Vol.1 No.1 (2018) Iran Protests: Changing Dynamics between the Islamic Republic and the Poor 2017년 마지막 날, 이란은 경제, 사회, 정치 분노를 표출한 시위의 물결에 휩싸였다. 다양한 구호와 요구들이 표출된 가운데 경제적 원인 이 시위의 시발점 이었다고 볼 수 있다. 이 글은 금번 이란 시위의 배경을 1979년 혁명 이후 40년 간 이어온 국가와 저소득 계층간의 역학 관계 변화를 통해 밝히는 것을 목표로 하고 있다. 혁명 이후 저소득 계층은 혁명 정권의 주요 사회적 지지 기반이었으나 1990년대 초 정부 의 신자유주의 경제 정책으로의 전환은 저소득 계층의 소외와 국가와의 관계 악화라는 새로운 역학 관계를 낳게 되었다. In the final days of 2017, a wave of protests erupted in Iran, bringing to surface a host of economic, social, and political resentments. Despite the profusion of slogans and demands, the initial trigger is widely believed to have been economic. This article aims to contextualize Iran’s protests by examining the changing dynamics between the state and the poor in the four decades since the country’s 1979 revolution. A case is made that while in the first decade after the revolution the poor became the primary social base of the post- revolutionary state, the (neo-liberal) shift in economic policies since the early 1990s has cultivated new dynamics in which the lower economic strata are increasingly disenchanted with and disenfranchised from the state. Siavash Saffari (Department of Asian Languages and Civilizations - Seoul National University) To be sure, not all participants in the demonstrations came from the ranks of the poor. Though its unmistakable impetus was pervasive economic dissatisfaction among the lower as well as the middle classes, the protest movement was animated by a diversity of grievances reflected in chants ranging from “down with price hikes,” to “down with the dictator.” While acknowledging this medley of disenchantments, the present article discusses some of the ways in which the changing dynamics between the Islamic Republic and the poor may have People gather to protest over high cost of living in Tehran, Iran on December 30, 2017 Source: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images contributed to the rise of the recent uprising. -
What Drives the Water Level Decline of Lake Urmia Stephan Schulz 1*, Sahand Darehshouri1, Elmira Hassanzadeh2, Massoud Tajrishy3 & Christoph Schüth1
www.nature.com/scientificreports OPEN Climate change or irrigated agriculture – what drives the water level decline of Lake Urmia Stephan Schulz 1*, Sahand Darehshouri1, Elmira Hassanzadeh2, Massoud Tajrishy3 & Christoph Schüth1 Lake Urmia is one of the largest hypersaline lakes on earth with a unique biodiversity. Over the past two decades the lake water level declined dramatically, threatening the functionality of the lake’s ecosystems. There is a controversial debate about the reasons for this decline, with either mismanagement of the water resources, or climatic changes assumed to be the main cause. In this study we quantifed the water budget components of Lake Urmia and analyzed their temporal evolution and interplay over the last fve decades. With this we can show that variations of Lake Urmia’s water level during the analyzed period were mainly triggered by climatic changes. However, under the current climatic conditions agricultural water extraction volumes are signifcant compared to the remaining surface water infow volumes. Changes in agricultural water withdrawal would have a signifcant impact on the lake volume and could either stabilize the lake, or lead to its complete collapse. Lake Urmia is an endorheic lake located in north-west of Iran (Fig. 1). With an average original surface area of about 5,000 km2 it is one of the largest hypersaline lakes on earth1–3. Considering its original extent, Lake Urmia has more than one hundred islands, which are vital for the reproduction of various local birds, but also as a safe breeding refuge of migratory birds such as Flamingos and White Pelicans2. Te main islands are an ideal habitat for endangered species such as the Iranian yellow deer and Armenian moufon4. -
Iran Iran Presidential Elections June 2020
Iranian Presidential Election IRAN IRAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS JUNE 2020 solaceglobal.com Page 0 Iranian Presidential Election Iran Presidential Election Executive Summary The 18 June saw Iran hold presidential elections. The election was marred in the eyes of many before they were even held, with the majority of candidates barred from running. This resulted in many believing the election was rigged to give one favoured candidate, Ebrahim Raisi, victory. Raisi, who is currently the country’s Chief Justice, won the election with nearly 62 percent of the vote. Raisi has been accused of large-scale human rights abuses in the past and is nicknamed the “Butcher of Tehran”. In addition to now being the president-elect, he is tipped as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Khamenei. He has support among Iran’s hard-liners, close links to the clerical establishment and, importantly, the Revolutionary Guard. Thus, the election of Raisi can be viewed as an important step by these groups to realise control over the country after several years of governance by a moderate reformist President. Under a Raisi presidency, Iranian politics is likely to become more repressive. There will be little change in the country’s wider foreign policy under him. Despite this, there is still a moderate likelihood that a new nuclear agreement can be reached with the US and other Western countries, as the lifting of sanctions would be beneficial to the Iranian establishment and wider domestic economy. Presidential Profile Ebrahim Raisi is supported by the hard-line and conservative factions of Iranian politics. He was born to a clerical family in the holy city of Mashhad and is purported to be a descendent of the Prophet Mohammad. -
From Rouhani to Raisi: Pressing Questions on the Eve of Iran's
MENU Policy Analysis / PolicyWatch 3503 From Rouhani to Raisi: Pressing Questions on the Eve of Iran’s Election by Omer Carmi Jun 17, 2021 Also available in Arabic / Farsi ABOUT THE AUTHORS Omer Carmi Omer Carmi was a 2017 military fellow at The Washington Institute. Brief Analysis With Ebrahim Raisi’s road to the presidency seemingly paved, the regime has been working to prevent low voter turnout and give him a vote of confidence through a landslide win. his year’s Iranian presidential election cycle will probably be remembered as a dull one. Early in the process, T the Guardian Council disqualified several high-profile figures from running in the June 18 vote, including former Majlis speaker Ali Larijani, Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, and former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The decision left judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi as the most prominent candidate with no real competition, making for one of the most boring presidential races in Iran’s history. Even the three public debates failed to create excitement among the citizenry. Despite the lack of fireworks and the near-certain outcome, several important questions have arisen in the lead-up to the vote. The answers could affect the regime’s legitimacy at home and its future policies abroad. What Will the Turnout Be? I ranian leaders have often used high voter turnout as “proof” of both the regime’s support base and the people’s “resistance” to the West. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continued this tradition in his last speech before the election, claiming that Western media are trying to “decrease the people’s turnout at the ballot boxes.” He then urged Iranians to vote and foil the supposed conspiracy. -
Paved-With-Good-Intentions-Final.Pdf
Paved with Good Intentions PENGUIN BOOKS PAVED WITH GOOD INTENTIONS Barry Rubin is a specialist on American foreign policy and on Middle East politics. He is a Fellow at George town University’s Center for Strategic and International Studies. PAVED WITH GOOD INTENTIONS The American Experience and Iran BARRY RUBIN PENGUIN BOOKS PENGUIN BOOKS Published by the Penguin Group Viking Penguin Inc., 40 West 23rd Street, New York, New York 10010, U.S.A. Penguin Books Ltd, 27 Wrights Lane, London W8 5TZ, England Penguin Books Australia Ltd, Ringwood, Victoria, Australia Penguin Books Canada Ltd, 2801 John Street, Markham, Ontario, Canada L3R 1B4 Penguin Books (N.Z.) Ltd, 182190 Wairau Road, Auckland 10, New Zealand Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: Harmondsworth, Middlesex, England First published in Great Britain and the United States by Oxford University Press, Inc., 1980 Published in Penguin Books 1981 10 9 8 7 6 5 Copyright © Oxford University Press, Inc., 1980 All rights reserved LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING IN PUBLICATION DATA Rubin, Barry M. Paved with good intentions. Originally published: New York: Oxford University Press, 1980. Bibliography: p. Includes index. 1. United States—Foreign relations—Iran. 2. Iran— Foreign relations—United States. I. Title. E183.8.I55R83 1981 327.73055 814634 ISBN 0 14 00.5964 4 AACR2 Printed in the United States of America Except in the United States of America, this book is sold subject to the condition that it shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, resold, hired out, or otherwise circulated without the publisher’s prior consent in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser Artificial sprites As by the strength of their illusion Shall draw him on to his confusion He shall spurn fate, scorn death and bear: His hopes ‘bove wisdom, grace and fear: And you all know security Is mortal’s chiefest enemy.