MALAYSIA JUNE 19, 2017 www.theedgemarkets.com NO TELLING WHAT WILL HAPPEN AT THE POLLS | S2 BN always emerges stronger after a testing time S4 | I think the same party will come back to power S5 | We will off er good governance S8 | BN is weak, but opposition is not strong S9 | We are focused and committed to reform S10 | Pakatan Harapan is just about ready S11 Will economic or political issues hold sway? STORIES BY AZAM ARIS, KATHY FONG, JOSE BARROCK AND ESTHER LEE he outcome of a general election in Malaysia may the British people would be all for it. What he got instead such issues as rising unemployment and cost of living not be that hard to predict, given that the Umno-led was a vote in favour of Britain exiting the EU, or Brexit. and more expensive healthcare as well as cuts in the ed- coalition has won every one since independence Just a year later, his successor, Theresa May, called a ucation allocation? Will the irregularities at 1Malaysia in 1957. The Barisan Nasional (BN), along with its snap election, confi dent that she would strengthen her Development Bhd (1MDB), FELDA and its unit, Felda Glob- predecessor — the Alliance Party — is today the position and that of the Conservative Party. It turned out al Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV), be enough to convince Tlongest ruling party in the democratic world. to be a setback for the Tories, who lost their parliamenta- voters in the Malay heartlands and FELDA settlements Will the 14th general election, which must be held ry majority as a resurgent Labour Party surprisingly won to opt for a change? anytime between now and August 2018, be any diff erent? over the bulk of young voters. Or will Malaysians stick to the tried and tested BN Worldwide trends at present indicate that populism In between the British election and the Brexit ref- that touts political stability and policies that have de- holds sway, and that race and religious issues have become erendum, Donald Trump in the US surprised everyone, livered continuous economic growth, albeit at a slower important factors in infl uencing election results. At the including his own Republican Party, when he defeated rate than before, for the larger part of its 60-year rule? same time, bread-and-butter matters such as employment Hillary Clinton in the presidential election with his pop- Political strategist James Carville was credited with still dominate many campaigns, while fi ckle-minded vot- ulist “America First” campaign. coming out with the phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid”, ers, especially the youth, are less easy to fi gure out. Voters in France, meanwhile, handed Emmanuel Ma- when he advised Bill Clinton to focus on economic is- In the last couple of years, pollsters and major news cron a landslide victory and checked the rise of Marine sues during the US presidential election in 1992. Clin- channels have more often than not got their predictions Le Pen’s far-right party — which came as a huge relief for ton defeated the senior George Bush, whom many had wrong. the liberals of the world. expected to win after the US had successfully defeated David Cameron had called for a referendum on whether Will Malaysia’s 14th general election spring any sur- Iraq in the first Gulf War only a year earlier. Britain should remain in the European Union as he believed prises? Can the opposition gain more votes and seats with CONTINUES PAGE S6 S2 MALAYSIA JUNE 19, 2017 MALAYSIA JUNE 19, 2017 S3 RUN-UP TO GE14 analysts believe about 43 seats are more, I cannot see the opposition still up for grabs. Liew says in these parties reaching a consensus on constituencies, 60% to 70% of the who should be their candidate for voters are Malays, although many prime minister before GE14,” says of them have at least 30% non-Ma- Second Finance Minister Johari. lay voters. “In these areas, if you No telling don’t win the non-Malay votes, Opposition’s woes and let’s say the Malay votes are While the opposition seems shaky split 50:50, you will still lose. But on all fronts, Mahathir, in an ex- if you secure a high percentage clusive interview with The Edge, of the non-Malay votes and the warns, “Yes, it looks pretty shaky Malays are split equally [even if but believe me, it’s not as shaky what there is a three-cornered fight as made out to be.” between Umno, PAS and Bersa- But there seem to be many is- tu/Amanah/PKR], then you have sues that the opposition has to a chance to win.” deal with. The deaths of former Kelantan will happen Najib shows his strengths but menteri besar and PAS spiritual still overall popularity drops leader Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik At the Umno general assembly Mat or Tok Guru in February 2015 in December last year, Najib, in and Bukit Gelugor MP and former a fiery speech to 2,729 delegates, DAP national chairman Karpal labelled Mahathir’s decision to Singh in April 2014 had an ad- at the polls quit Umno and set up PPBM as verse effect on the coalition, while the ultimate betrayal of the par- the jailing of Anwar for sodomy ty, the race and the country. One for the second time was an even here was great difficulty jority are of the view that it will be doors for the opposition to get delegate says Najib’s speech gave bigger blow. in getting people to talk around October this year — after into the Malay heartland, notably him goose pimples. Political observers believe that to The Edge for this cover the Southeast Asian Games, which the FELDA settlements — Umno The prime minister has also if Tok Guru had not died, PAS would story. We sent questions is slated to be held between Aug 19 strongholds — that comprise the been generous. Recently, during not have pulled out of the opposi- to Prime Minister Datuk and 30 (see infographic). majority of over 54 constituencies. a visit to FELDA Sayong in Johor, tion coalition. The party’s decision Seri Najib Razak’s office With Malaysia likely to do well But did Mahathir do the right he announced a cash incentive of to leave the opposition coalition in the belief that he would match because of home ground advan- thing by joining the opposition? RM500 for each FELDA settler’s revolved around RUU355, a private Tanyone the opposition put forward tage and our 60th Merdeka cele- One seasoned businessman says family and an additional RM280 member’s bill tabled by Marang but his executives politely rebuffed brations following closely behind, Mahathir made a mistake in part- from Felda Global Ventures Hold- MP and PAS president Datuk Seri our request. the feel-good factor could be brew- nering DAP and the rest of the ings Bhd (FGV). Abdul Hadi Awang. Though not Defence Minister Datuk Seri ing, which means a snap election opposition. He believes the for- This was over and above the firmed up yet, Umno has courted Hishammuddin Hussein said no could be called. mer premier should have done a quarterly 1Malaysia People’s Aid PAS by sending the Islamist par- via WhatsApp while Youth and Two years ago, Singapore host- deal with PAS, which would not (BR1M) 2017, the second payment ty signals that it would support Sports Minister Khairy Jamalud- ed the SEA Games and the govern- have divided the Malays. “I believe of which was made on June 5. Na- RUU355, which aims to increase din Abu Bakar declined after sev- ment rallied its people after com- many Malays are united against jib also announced this month the the power of the shariah courts. eral attempts to contact him. ing in second — their best-ever Mahathir … seeing him on stage government’s plan to offer free But without the support of While we know that The Edge performance in the Games’ history with old foe Kit Siang was the digital television decoders to 4.2 Sarawak and Sabah BN, it is un- is a business publication and not — and went to the ballot box. The last straw. I, for one, have lost all million BR1M recipients in Ma- likely that Umno will support the part of mainstream media, we Games ended in mid-June and the respect for Mahathir.” laysia in phases until the end of bill. This issue and the pulling thought our cover story would election was called three months But some political observers next year. The decoders are worth out of the opposition coalition give the ruling Barisan Nasional later in mid-September. feel that many Malays in the ur- RM199 each. have caused a lot of dissatisfac- (BN) coalition an opportunity to The ruling People’s Action Party ban, semi-urban and even rural Nevertheless, Najib’s popularity tion among the PAS grassroots, show how it has fared as the in- did its best since 2001 with 69.86% areas might think twice about has taken a turn for the worse. The especially those in the urban ar- cumbent government and how of the popular vote — up 9.72% voting for Umno this time round going has been tough, largely as a eas who think Umno is taking confident and equipped it is to face from the 2011 election. because Mahathir is still well re- result of the many issues plaguing the party and Hadi for a ride. PAS the next general election. However, in Malaysia, there are garded and respected as a leader the country, such as the lack of itself seems to be split into three Some of the others who de- many other issues, one of which of the Malays and who has done a transparency and losses at 1Ma- factions despite the “progressive” clined were former deputy prime is the presence of former prime lot for the community and Islam.