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Ali-A-2018-Phd-Thesis.Pdf A study of technology efficiency, environment and socio-economic impact of renewable energy in off-grid rural areas – The case of Bangladesh A thesis submitted to Imperial College London for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) By Anika Ali Centre for Environmental Policy Faculty of Natural Sciences Imperial College London 2018 1 Declaration of Originality I hereby declare that this thesis is entirely my own work, except for that which has been appropriately referenced. Anika Ali Copyright Declaration The copyright of this thesis rests with the author and is made available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives licence. Researchers are free to copy, distribute or transmit the thesis on the condition that they attribute it, that they do not use it for commercial purposes and that they do not alter, transform or build upon it. For any reuse or redistribution, researchers must make clear to others the licence terms of this work. 2 Acknowledgements I would like to thank all those who have been continuous points of strength for me in completing this journey with two kids. A heartfelt thank you to my supervisor Dr. Judith Cherni for her guidance and support. A special thanks goes out to my husband who has been extremely understanding and supportive. I would also like to thank all those involved with the field study in Bangladesh including members from Techno Green Carbon, who supported the technical installations and funded this PhD and Dr. Saleemul Huq from ICCCAD Bangladesh for his advisory support. This thesis is dedicated to my late parents. 3 Abstract Remote rural communities in developing countries without access to modern energy can greatly benefit from the uptake of small scale renewable energy technologies. Large proportion of rural communities in Bangladesh suffer from lack of grid energy supplies and with limited financial means such communities struggle to access modern energy. Although small off-grid solar systems are being widely promoted, there is a lack of systematic exploration of diversified energy technologies, natural resources, technical performance, socio-economic impact, long-term sustainability and how users are to afford their maintenance. This study therefore aimed to undertake a technical, socio-economic and sustainability study through data collection and modelling of renewable energy adoption amongst energy deprived rural communities in off-grid parts of Khulna, Bangladesh. Using a quasi-experimental case study with treatment and control groups, surveys were conducted to gather data on socio-economic status, energy priorities and finance indicators pre- and post-installation of three pilot energy systems, including solar PV, wind, and solar-wind hybrid. Atmospheric and technical primary data from the region over a year was used to develop future scenarios. 4 The technologies were modelled using MATLAB-Simulink while their long-term sustainability and livelihood impacts were assessed using SURE-DSS software over a 10-year time frame. Using the socio-economic analysis and Osterwalder approach, a business plan framework was developed. Research revealed that the greatest impact in terms of energy provision to rural communities was derived from the hybrid system, followed by solar PV system and finally the wind system. Solar and wind technologies complemented each other particularly well resulting in more stable power output. Multi-factor modelling, including atmospheric, socio-economic, finance and sustainability, helped in identifying suitable technologies for future development. Energy access increased willingness to pay for energy amongst all groups. The hybrid group also experienced a noticeable positive change in disposable income post energy adoption. 5 Table of Contents Declaration of Originality ........................................................................2 Acknowledgements ...................................................................................3 Abstract .....................................................................................................4 List of Tables .......................................................................................... 15 List of Figures ....................................................................................... 17 List of Pictures ...................................................................................... 20 List of Equations ................................................................................... 21 List of Acronyms ................................................................................... 22 1. Introduction ....................................................................................... 24 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................ 24 1.2 Motivation ................................................................................. 25 1.3 Aims and objectives ....................................................................... 33 1.4 Outline of thesis .............................................................................. 34 2. Literature Review .............................................................................. 38 2.1 Introduction.................................................................................... 38 2.2 Global energy- demand and negative impacts .............................. 39 2.3 Energy access in the South Asian region ...................................... 41 2.4 Renewable energy- global trends and role in rural electrification 43 2.4.1 Overview .............................................................................. 43 6 2.4.2 Suitability and sustainability for rural regions ..................... 45 2.4.3 Social and economic impact of renewable energy adoption in rural regions of developing countries ............................................ 50 2.4.4 Private sector engagement in renewable energy financing .. 54 2.5 Modelling and business frameworks to forecast sustainable technical, social, economic energy development .................................................. 57 2.5.1 Atmospheric modelling – wind resources ............................ 57 2.5.2 Technology modelling.......................................................... 58 2.5.3 Sustainability modelling ....................................................... 59 2.5.4 Financing mechanisms ......................................................... 63 2.5.5 Business Modelling .............................................................. 69 2.6 Thesis approach ............................................................................. 72 2.6.1 Identification of factors influencing the successful expansion of the renewable energy sector ...................................................... 73 2.6.2 Socio-economic assessment: pre and post assessment and control group inclusion ............................................................................ 75 2.6.3 Technical assessment: MATLAB-Simulink ........................ 76 2.6.4 Sustainability analysis: SURE-DSS ..................................... 76 2.6.5 Business Model: IDCOL-Grameen Model and Osterwalder Business Model Framework .......................................................... 77 2.7 Conclusion ..................................................................................... 78 3. The Energy Sector in Bangladesh .................................................... 80 7 3.1 Introduction.................................................................................... 80 3.2 Demographic overview.................................................................. 81 3.3 Energy in Bangladesh .................................................................... 84 3.3.1 Patterns of installed capacity for electricity generation and consumption .................................................................................. 85 3.3.2 Gas and oil based power supply ........................................... 87 3.3.3 Coal based power supply ..................................................... 90 3.4 Renewable energy – production, potential and challenges ........... 91 3.5 The deficit in rural electrification and the role of renewable energy ................................................................................................................. 95 3.6 Conclusion ..................................................................................... 98 4. Research Methodology .................................................................... 101 4.1 Introduction.................................................................................. 101 4.2 Methods and approaches ............................................................. 102 4.3 Literature review – secondary sources ........................................ 105 4.4 Field-work – primary sources: surveys ....................................... 106 4.4.1 Region and village selection: features and suitability ...... 107 4.4.2 Sampling design: three-stages method ............................. 111 4.4.3 Household surveys: questionnaire and semi-structured interviews .................................................................................... 115 4.5 Field-work – primary sources: atmospheric and power generation ........................................................................................................... 118 8 4.5.1 Atmospheric data collection .............................................. 118 4.5.2 Energy data collection .......................................................
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