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CRVA Report – Liberia

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CRVA Report – Liberia Country Risk and Vulnerability Ass essment LIBERIA MAY 2017 ECOWAS COMMISSION COMMISSION DE LA CEDEAO COMMISSÃO DA CEDEAO Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: Liberia | 1 DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. Cover photo: “West Point in Monrovia” by Mark Fischer, accessed via Flickr (https://www.flickr.com/photos/fischerfotos/14701471092). Reproduced under CC BY-SA 2.0. Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................... 5 Message from the President of the ECOWAS Commission .................................................................................... 6 Statement from the Vice President of the ECOWAS Commission ......................................................................... 7 Preface ...................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................. 9 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................. 11 Research Process ............................................................................................................................................... 11 Terminology and Conceptual Definitions .......................................................................................................... 13 Literature Review ................................................................................................................................................ 14 Research Questions ........................................................................................................................................... 15 Description of the Sample ................................................................................................................................. 17 Data Analysis ...................................................................................................................................................... 18 Scope and Limitations of the Study .................................................................................................................. 18 Country Background ............................................................................................................................................... 20 National-Level Vulnerabilities, Risks and Resiliencies ......................................................................................... 22 Economics and Resources (Most Vulnerable Pillar) ......................................................................................... 26 Population and Demographics (Second Most Vulnerable Pillar) ..................................................................... 28 Politics and Governance (Third Most Vulnerable Pillar) ................................................................................... 30 Security (Fourth Most Vulnerable Pillar) ........................................................................................................... 32 Rule of Law (Least Vulnerable Pillar) ................................................................................................................ 34 External Factors .................................................................................................................................................. 35 Gender Considerations ...................................................................................................................................... 36 Sub-National Level Vulnerabilities, Risks and Resilience Factors: Observations by Region ............................. 38 Montserrado County ........................................................................................................................................... 38 Lofa County ......................................................................................................................................................... 40 Nimba County ..................................................................................................................................................... 42 Bong County ........................................................................................................................................................ 44 Bomi County ........................................................................................................................................................ 46 Grand Gedeh and River Gee Counties .............................................................................................................. 48 Grand Cape Mount County ................................................................................................................................. 50 Grand Bassa County ........................................................................................................................................... 52 Margibi County .................................................................................................................................................... 55 Conclusion and Recommendations ...................................................................................................................... 57 Appendix A: Data Sample ....................................................................................................................................... 59 Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: Liberia | 3 Appendix B: Vulnerability Index ............................................................................................................................. 63 Appendix C: Additional References ....................................................................................................................... 65 Appendix D: Matrix of Vulnerabilities, Risks, Resilience Factors, and Recommendations by Human Security Pillar ......................................................................................................................................................................... 66 Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: Liberia | 4 Acronyms and Abbreviations ACLED Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project AfDB African Development Bank CPIA World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment CRA Conflict Risk Assessment CRVA Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment DDR Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration DPA ECOWAS Directorate of Political Affairs DPKRS ECOWAS Directorate of Peacekeeping and Regional Security ECOMIL ECOWAS Mission in Liberia ECOMOG ECOWAS Monitoring Group (Liberia) ECOWARN ECOWAS Early Warning and Response Network ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States ECPF ECOWAS Conflict Prevention Framework EWD ECOWAS Directorate of Early Warning FGD Focus Group Discussion GBV Gender-Based Violence GDP Gross Domestic Product GSDRC Governance and Social Development Resource Centre ICC International Criminal Court IMF International Monetary Fund IncReps ECOWARN’s Incident Reports KII Key Informant Interview LERN Liberia Early Response Network LURD Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy MODEL Movement for Democracy in Liberia NDP National Development Plan NZAID New Zealand Agency for International Development PBO Peacebuilding Office (Liberia Ministry of the Interior) REWARD Reacting to Early Warning and Response Data in West Africa SitReps ECOWARN Situation Reports SNA Stakeholder Network Analysis SSR Security Sector Reform UMEOA West Africa Economy and Monetary Union UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNMIL United Nations Mission in Liberia USAID United States Agency for International Development WANEP West African Network for Peacebuilding Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: Liberia | 5 Message from the President of the ECOWAS Commission The 15 Member-States of the ECOWAS Community represent a thriving region of the world, with a population of approximately 366 million and a rich human and topographical diversity. From the coastline to the mountain peaks of Fouta Djallon, across the Sahara and the mangroves of the Niger Delta, ECOWAS is home to diverse families, communities, and nations. Over the last decade, the region has witnessed significant progress in lifting the standard of living for millions. However, along with the richness of natural resources, human capital and great opportunity, there are also challenges to contend with such as natural disasters, pandemics, ethno-sectarian tensions, and security threats caused by extremism and terrorism. Global developments and changes such as advances in technology, human migration and climate change, have added new levels of complexity, presenting new challenges for strategic planning and preparedness as we look ahead to the future. This is where Early Warning plays a critical role in helping ECOWAS to understand the changing dynamics so as to strengthen decision making and early response at the regional and national levels. The Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessments (CRVAs) serve as an important resource in this regard. These reports are useful for strengthening
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