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Significance to Climate Change and Forcing Abstract Ther

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Significance to Climate Change and Forcing Abstract Ther An overview of the swell dynamics and their implications over Africa: significance to climate change and forcing Abstract There is a growing interest in climate dynamics as the quantity and quality of new observational and theoretical applications are increasing. The ideas involved in understanding large-scale atmosphere-land-ocean dynamics and their interactions continue to hold special fascination because of their central importance for both theoretical and practical applications. This paper presents a theoretical assessment of the African swell dynamics imploring atmospheric formulation. Africa exhibits substantial inter-annual and inter-decadal climatic variability due to cyclone activity, storm surges and sea waves. Most of these surges and corresponding swell trains form over the tropical environment as easterly waves propagate westward across the Indian Ocean primarily between 10° and 20° S, termed source region. Localized sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and ocean upwelling play a vital role to provide moist enthalpy to power the surges. Also, multi-decadal variations in major wave activity are associated with SST changes in the Atlantic because tropical North Atlantic correlates positively with major hurricane activity. A key remote factor is temperature variability in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation. The continuous erosion, perennial ocean surges, coastal swells and associated flooding due to the wave energy and its pounding effect are of great concern. Just like in most parts of the world where development of these systems is critical, they need to be closely watched particularly over southern Africa. Key Words: climate dynamics; swell train; source region; wave energy; ocean surge. 1. Introduction temperatures (SSTs), sea level rise and Africa experiences a wide variety of ocean upwelling. It is clear that any climate regimes and is one continent substantial changes in numbers or strongly affected by the subtropical fatalities of these events have significant anticyclonic belts and has extensive consequences in the active and/or areas of tropical-subtropical climates. vulnerable regions during periods of Changes in climate dynamics and wind disturbance, storm surge, cyclone variability are likely to exacerbate the activity and/or damaging floods. For existing problems due to episodic wave example, southern east Africa –including events that occur with little advanced the island of Madagascar appears to be warning [1]. These impacts are likely to influenced by SST changes over much affect many different aspects of the larger regions [3], and references world’s environments. Year-to-year therein]. The region is frequently variations in tropical cyclone (TC) affected by cyclonic and other numbers are great, and in many regions significant weather events [4] that strongly linked to El Niño Southern unleash large wave events over land [1] Oscillation [2]. Also, regions of wave between December and March. Majority activity may increase poleward as a of these TCs track south-westerly away result of increasing sea surface from the mainland and back towards the Indian Ocean. According to Mather and 1 Stretch [1], these cyclones sometimes climate regime spanning to seasons, remain semi-stationary south of decades or centuries. Understanding the Madagascar that cause the biggest swells root causes of these changes and the in the region. The southern part of perceived value of seasonal prediction is Madagascar also appears to be well- vital, given the overwhelming positioned to receive strong south- importance of the timescales of climate westerly swells from these systems as information and adaptive responses [9]. they move over the ocean [5]. Although advances to understand these The northwest coast often experience complex mechanisms and how they may mid-latitude depressions that track influence future climate variability are across the North Atlantic [6] –the region made, this is a critical area requiring with a wave activity subject to a high further research [10]. For example, seasonal variation and enhances during projecting future climate evolution needs the northern-hemisphere winter. some kind of mathematical- or physical Similarly, West-Africa receive north- approach to understand and/or model. As westerly swells from the North Atlantic such, climate scientists try to tackle during the northern winter and the these issues by understanding the link occasionally long-range swells from the between various factors that relate air South Pacific during the southern winter. movement and clouds, heat and On the other hand, east Africa is often temperature, rainfall and cloud affected by locally-generated wind seas, formation, pressure changes and wind together with the south (south-easterly) field. One application is the use of swells from mid-latitude depressions that existing mathematical laws (the so- would have otherwise occurred or called atmospheric equations) to propagate over the South West Indian understand the underlying physical Ocean (SWIO). One significant problems. Fundamental laws of fluid difference between the South Indian dynamics and thermodynamics Ocean and the South Atlantic Ocean is governing atmospheric behavior are that the former is much larger and allows expressed in terms of partial differential the nature of the Indian Ocean High equations involving the field variables as (IOH) to be more modified [7]. dependent or independent variables in According to the author, the IOH is not a space and time. These are basic laws of single steady synoptic entity, and tends motion derived from the same equations to slowly move eastwards across the governing all classical fluid dynamics. South Indian Ocean and often splits into This paper aims to understand the status two waves, particularly with a strong and evolution of the swells and their depression poleward and the transition influence on the African climate from one cell to the next that provides variability. We address this on the issues the trickiest navigation dilemma. of geophysical fluid dynamics applying The interplay between the atmosphere, some fundamental atmospheric land and oceans driving these systems is equations. The main objective is to extremely complex. Indeed interactions analyze the swell trains as a possible aid between the waves and currents induce to theoretical and/or operational change in the wave direction [8], and forecasting. The paper also highlights on references therein. Interactions can result interannual and intraseasonal variability in large variations in weather and/or in the wave activity, including links to 2 large-scale phenomena such as El Niño areas of influence by these systems. The Southern Oscillation (ENSO), SSTs and five broad wave environments have been the quasi-binneal oscillation (QBO). recognized as: Also described are some characteristics i) Storm wave environments: occurs demonstrated about African storms and where gales generate short high-energy global wave environments. waves of varying direction. ii) East coast swell: consist of weaker 2. Wave climates and swell generation swell, amplified by local wave 2.1 Major global wave environments generation There are significant patterns of wind iii) West coast swell: occurs on coasts belts and oceans identified globally, that experiencing low long-swell waves of cause the major wave climates. The consistent direction with rare storms largest of which are associated with gale iv) Monsoon influence environments: force winds of the sub-polar and experience a reversal of principal wind temperate latitude regions, characterized wave directions, and by the occurrence of westerly winds and v) Protected sea environments: large frontal activity [11]. According to the water bodies in which wave generation author, these occur in latitudes around is localized rather than swells from the 60S in the southern hemisphere (SH), large ocean basins. whereas in the northern hemisphere As shown in the figure, the east and west (NH) they occur in the “roaring forties”, coasts are often affected by the east and 40–60N. The trade wind belts are west swells, with the southeast also characterized by strong persistent winds subject to the TCs from the SWIO and maintain the swells, although they tracking westwards. Moving further east are rare in the doldrums of equatorial towards south Asia, the region is subject latitudes. Tropical cyclones (also to monsoon influence which sometimes described in different nomenclature in reach Africa via the so-called Great different places) significantly influence Horn of Africa. waves on many tropical coasts, but do not occur within 5N–5S region of the equator. Figure 1 illustrates the major 3 Fig. 1. Major wave climates [11] disturbance is one necessary condition 2.2 Wave generation and swell trains for a TC development, a vast majority of over Africa which form over tropical environments Africa is generally characterized by stark [14]. climatic contrasts, significant inter- Almost all swell trains reaching Africa annual and inter-decadal climate are generated from the southern oceans’ variability [12]. An upper anticyclonic storms with less frequency coming from circulation continues aloft in both the northern oceanic areas. Occasionally, hemispheres all year round so that a high storms approach from the east driven by zonal index prevails. The continent is frontal systems over the SWIO (Fig. 2). surrounded by the Atlantic and Indian The figure shows regions of active oceans that play
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