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Forced from Home: Climate-Fuelled Displacement

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Forced from Home: Climate-Fuelled Displacement OXFAM MEDIA BRIEFING 2 December 2019 Forced from Home Climate-fuelled displacement Background Climate-fuelled disasters were the number one driver of internal displacement over the last decade – forcing an estimated 20 million people a year from their homes. Today, you are seven times more likely to be internally displaced by cyclones, floods and wildfires than by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, and three times more likely than by conflict. While no one is immune, it is overwhelmingly poor countries that are most at risk. Eighty percent of those displaced in the last decade live in Asia – home to over a third of the world’s poorest people. Small island developing states such as Cuba and Tuvalu make up seven of the 10 countries that face the highest risk of internal displacement as a result of extreme weather events and are 150 times more likely to be displaced by extreme weather disasters than communities in Europe. And countries from Somalia to Guatemala are seeing large numbers of people displaced by both conflict and the climate crisis. Despite this, the international community has made little progress towards the provision of new funds to help poor countries recover from loss and damage resulting from the climate emergency. With this contentious issue expected to take centre stage at the UN Climate Summit in Madrid from 2–13 December, Oxfam is calling for more urgent and ambitious emissions reductions to minimize the impact of the crisis on people’s lives, and the establishment of a new ‘Loss and Damage’ finance facility to help communities recover and rebuild. Introduction Climate-fuelled disasters are the number one driver of internal displacement – forcing millions of people to leave home to seek refuge within the borders of their own country. Today, you are seven times more likely to be internally displaced by extreme weather disasters such as cyclones, floods and wildfires than by geophysical disasters such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, and three times more likely than by conflict.1 New Oxfam analysis of data from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre reveals that there was a five-fold increase in the reported number of extreme weather disasters that resulted in people being displaced over the last decade.2 On average, over 20 million people a year were internally displaced by extreme weather disasters over the last 10 years – 87% of all people internally displaced by disasters during this period. Millions more have been driven from their homes by drought, rising sea levels and other ‘slow-onset’ climate-fuelled disasters. More still are forced to flee across borders to find refuge outside their home country. 1 This briefing shows that it is the world’s poorest countries and communities, which bear little responsibility for global carbon pollution, that face the highest risk of climate-fuelled displacement. And it sets out how some poor countries are working, with little or no support from rich polluting nations, to help communities recover from loss and damage resulting from the climate crisis, including forced displacement. Key points • Small island developing states such as Cuba and Tuvalu make up seven of the 10 countries that face the highest risk of internal displacement as a result of extreme weather events. In Cuba, Dominica and Tuvalu, nearly 5 percent of the population has been displaced annually by extreme weather on average over this period - equivalent to almost half the of the population of Madrid being displaced within Spain in a single year.3 • People in low- and lower-middle income countries such as Somalia and India are over four times more likely to be displaced by extreme weather disasters than people in high-income countries such as Spain and the United States.4 • Many poor countries face multiple risks, with large numbers of people displaced by conflict as well as the climate crisis. In 2018 Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan saw 3.8 million people newly displaced by conflict and just under 1 million people newly displaced by extreme weather disasters such as floods. These countries also regularly see large proportions of their population impacted by drought.5 The contentious question of support for poor countries that suffer loss or damage as a result of the climate crisis is likely to take centre stage at the UN Climate Summit in Madrid with the conclusion of a review into the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss on Damage. Oxfam is calling for more urgent and ambitious emissions reductions to minimize the impact of the climate crisis, and the establishment of a new Loss and Damage finance facility to help communities displaced or otherwise impacted by the climate crisis rebuild their lives and their livelihoods. Figure 1: Number of climate-related disasters per year that have resulted in people being internally displaced 1600 1518 1400 1200 1000 865 800 650 607 558 600 527 400 325 234 248 201 188 200 67 76 97 21 28 30 47 24 37 46 42 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Weather-related Non-weather-related Source: Oxfam analysis of data from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre.6 2 High-risk countries People in low- and lower-middle income countries such as Somalia and India are over four times more likely to be displaced by extreme weather disasters than people in high-income countries such as Spain and the United States.7 In the decade between 2008 and 2019, low- and lower- middle income countries saw over 11 times more people displaced by extreme weather than in high-income countries.8 The vast majority – around 80% – of those displaced live in Asia. The region is home to around 60% of the world population, and over a third of the people globally who live in extreme poverty.9 Many of its cities and megacities in low-lying coastal areas are particularly susceptible to rising sea levels and storms. For example, a single event, Cyclone Fani, triggered the displacement of nearly 3.5 million people in Bangladesh and India in May 2019, most of who were pre-emptively evacuated. In 2018, 3.8 million people were reported displaced by extreme weather in the Philippines and a further 3.8 million in China.10 However, many other countries face very high risks of displacement from extreme weather in terms of the proportion of population affected. Small Island Developing States People from the Small island Developing States (SIDS), particularly those from the Caribbean and the Pacific, face the greatest risks. Seven of the 10 countries with the highest rates of displacement from extreme weather disasters between 2008 and 2018 are classified as SIDS, a recognized grouping in UN climate and environmental negotiations.11 A further two of the 10, the Philippines and Sri Lanka, are also developing island states (though not part of the SIDS grouping at the UN climate talks). While numbers vary significantly year-to-year, more than 1% of people living in SIDS were displaced by sudden-onset extreme weather disasters on average each year between 2008 and 2018. In Cuba, Dominica and Tuvalu, nearly 5% of the population has been displaced annually by extreme weather on average over this period – equivalent to the entire combined populations of New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Houston all being displaced each year in the US, or nearly half the population of Madrid being displaced within Spain each year.12 Table 1: Ten countries where people are most at risk of displacement from extreme weather disasters Country Key cause of displacement Percentage of Emissions per population newly capita (global rank displaced by sudden- out of 193 Member onset extreme weather States of the UN as of 2014) events on average each year between 2008–18 Cuba Tropical cyclones (Atlantic hurricanes) 4.8% 127th Dominica Tropical cyclones (Atlantic hurricanes) 4.6% 96th Tuvalu Tropical cyclones13 4.5% 158th 3 Philippines Tropical cyclones (north-western Pacific 3.5% 170th typhoons), floods Saint Maarten Tropical cyclones (Atlantic hurricanes) 2.8% (No data) Vanuatu Tropical cyclones 2.4% 131st Fiji Tropical cyclones, floods 1.5% 190th Sri Lanka Floods, storms 1.4% 147th Tonga Tropical cyclones 1.3% 121st Somalia Floods 1.1% 132nd Global average 0.3% Source: Oxfam analysis of data from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre14 plus emissions data from World Resources Institute.15 Approximately 95% of people that were forced to move within SIDS between 2008 and 2018 were displaced by tropical cyclones and storms. Storms are becoming more destructive as warmer waters contribute to higher maximum wind speeds and more rainfall, while sea level rise is also causing more damaging storm surges. Overall, people living in SIDS are around 150 times more likely to be displaced by extreme weather disasters than people in Europe, 12 times more likely than people living in high-income countries, and four times more likely than the global average.16 In addition to the high risk of sudden-onset disasters, many SIDS are also dealing with the creeping threat of slow-onset changes such as sea-level rise and drought. Between 2006 and 2016, the rate of global sea-level rise was 2.5 times faster than it was for almost all of the 20th century.17 At the extreme end of this vulnerability are the world’s atoll countries – including the Pacific nations of Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands. All rank among the 50 countries facing the highest risk of displacement from extreme weather disasters. With little or no land more than a few metres above sea level, these countries face the prospect of having to relocate large portions of their population as rising seas swallow land and homes and contaminate soils and fresh water supplies.
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