29-Aug-2013
Morning Matters
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F E A F
TE A xF TE tA SET Intra-Day Graph WHAT’S INSIDE xF MT tA ax RT ct On The Platter ix rG st or OfficeMate (OFM TB;FVTHB71.5-Buy): Online Business Pioneer kV |o sa w OfficeMate is a major distributor of office supplies and stationery |l t equipment. Its recent merger with Central Retail Corporation (CRC) u h involved the transfer of two of the latter’s units, Office Club and B2S, into e the group. We like the company for the healthy growth potential of its | | Source: Bloomberg upcoming online business, which will be launched in 4QFY13, and initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation and a TP of THB71.50. Key Market Indices (28 August 2013)
Value Chg % Chg % YTD SET 1275.76 -18.21 -1.4% -8.3% MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS SET50 873.62 -10.28 -1.2% -7.6% SET100 1911.71 -25.77 -1.3% -8.0% GMM Z removes RS satellite channels in fee row Government lowers speed of railway megaprojects Dow Jones 14824.51 48.38 0.3% 13.1% S&P500 1634.96 4.48 0.3% 14.6% PTT warnsof net profit downturn Nasdaq 3593.35 14.83 0.4% 19.0% Retailers expect flat prices in second half FTSE 6430.06 -10.91 -0.2% 9.0% Renewable energy push to spark growth FSSTI 3010.89 -23.13 -0.8% -5.1% Hang Seng 21524.65 -350.12 -1.6% -5.0% SCCC freezes Cambodia cement plant Nikkei 13414.50 155.04 1.2% 29.1% KLCI 1686.17 -15.07 -0.9% -0.2% SHANGHAI SE 2101.30 -2.27 -0.1% -7.4% ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS JCI 4026.48 58.63 1.5% -6.7% India: Rupee Plunge Risks Economic Nosedive for India SET 5-yr avg 2012 2013F U.S.: Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Dropped 1.3% in PE (x) 13.8 14.1 12.4 July P/BV (x) 1.8 2.0 1.9 Yield (%) 4.1 3.4 3.7 Canada: Canada Factories Count on U.S. Pickup to End Recession Key Statistics Brazil: Brazil Raises Rate to 9% as Real Undercuts Inflation Fight
SET Value by investor Type: Daily U.K.: Carney Offers Banks Liquidity-Rule Sweetener for Lending Buy (THBm) Sell (THBm) Net (THBm) Spaniards Fleeing Jobless Scourge Seek Jobs in Morocco Institution 5,055.94 7,834.52 -2,778.58 Proprietary 10,955.74 8,460.22 2,495.52 Foreign 11,671.29 14,726.95 -3,055.65 Retail 26,005.72 22,667.02 3,338.70 SET Value by investor Type MTD (THBm) YTD (THBm) Institution 12,230.70 72,128.65 Proprietary -2,957.77 -8,221.99 Foreign -40,378.23 -116,464.46 Retail 31,105.30 52,557.80 SET50 Index Future Long Short Net MTD YTD Institution 11,212 13,996 -2,784 4,678 16,921 Foreign 5,773 6,883 -1,110 -5,722 -20,189 Local 17,993 14,099 3,894 1,044 3,268 Foreign Fund Flows (USDm) Last MTD YTD YTD%
-94.7 -1,273.7 -3,780.2 -280.8
TM See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFA Platform
Media Highlights GMM Z removes RS satellite channels in fee row GMM Z has removed all channels owned by rival RS Plc from its platform due to a dispute over broadcast fees charged by the latter. The satellite-TV arm of GMM Grammy Plc notified its subscribers that RS's satellite-based Channel 8, Sabaidee TV, You Channel and Star Max Channel can no longer be viewed from its set-top boxes from this past Tuesday. The announcement explained that GMM Z could broadcast these channels if it complied with conditions set by RS. But the company considers these conditions to be in conflict with National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission regulations that stipulate companies licensed by the NBTC must not foster unfair competition. Therefore, GMM Z decided to stop broadcasting all RS channels via its set-top boxes. Company executives were not available for comment. (Bangkok Post)
Government lowers speed of railway megaprojects The government will switch its railway investment from high-speed to medium-speed trains following strong criticism about the cost-effectiveness of the scheme, says Pansak Vinyaratn, chief policy adviser to Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Medium-speed trains capable of 250 kilometres per hour carry a lower investment cost than high-speed ones and are suitable for product shipments, he said without elaborating. A source said medium-speed trains will be used for the project's four routes. They are Bangkok-Nong Khai, Bangkok-Chiang Mai, Bangkok-Hua Hin and Bangkok-Rayong. The routes are the major part of the government's 2-trillion-baht megaproject investment over seven years. (Bangkok Post)
PTT warnsof net profit downturn PTT Plc, the country's largest oil and gas conglomerate, is warning its net profit could fall to about 100 billion baht this year from almost 105 billion last year due mainly to the weak oil price in the first half. PTT achieved first-half revenue of 1.39 trillion baht for a net profit of 48.4 billion. A full-year net profit below 100 billion baht was last seen in 2010 _ 83.1 billion on revenue of 1.9 trillion. Mr Surong said the rising oil price could come as a boon to PTT's group financial performance, particularly to PTT Exploration and Production and other petrochemical units, while the baht's weakness could boost profits since some revenue comes in US dollars. A US-led military strike against Syria, the possibility of which is already spiking the oil price, would have only a psychological effect on the price level, he said. But a more widespread war would be the biggest concern, as that could weaken geopolitical stability in the Middle East. (Bangkok Post)
Retailers expect flat prices in second half The prices of consumer goods are unlikely to increase much the rest of this year thanks to slower local consumption and higher competition. "Domestic trading activities during this period are tepid, as the country's overall economic condition is not good," said Somchai Pornrattanacharoen, president of the Thai Retailers and Wholesalers Association (TRWA). "Consumers have less purchasing power, so prices are likely to stay put." Consumers have changed their spending behaviour, shopping at community retail outlets and being more cautious, he said. Thanavath Phonvichai, vice-president for research at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said it's a buyer's market now thanks to the sluggish economy. Suwit Kingkaew, vice-president of CP All Plc, added competition among convenience store operators is expected to heat up in the remaining months, as new players like Japan's Lawson rev up their expansion. (Bangkok Post)
Renewable energy push to spark growth The Energy Ministry has vowed to eliminate regulations that obstruct the expansion of renewable energy, saying investment in the sector is vital to Thailand's economic growth. Energy Minister Pongsak Raktapongpaisal said yesterday that the ministry is speeding up the revisions to support investments such as rooftop solar panels. Other investments are community solar farms, biogas from napier grass and municipality waste-to-energy projects. Spending on renewable energy and energy efficiency will be another tool to stimulate the Thai economy. The expected delay of the 2.2-trillion-baht infrastructure plan has prompted the state to support renewables. The Energy Ministry expects investment in the sector to top 400 billion baht between this year and 2020. Renewable energy use is planned to reach 25% of Thailand's energy mix by 2020, up from 8% now. Based on average GDP growth of 4% a year, the ministry says energy efficiency measures will help reduce consumption by 20% by then. (Bangkok Post)
SCCC freezes Cambodia cement plant Siam City Cement Plc (SCCC), Thailand's second-largest cement maker, has shelved its US$150-million cement plant in Cambodia over political uncertainty in the neighbouring country as it looks at a possibility in Myanmar. Philippe Arto, managing director of SET-listed SCCC, said the board has decided to "put on the shelf" the plan to build a 1-million-tonne cement plant in Cambodia after finishing a feasibility study. SCCC, which is 27.5% owned by Switzerland's Holcim Ltd, in late 2010 signed a memorandum of agreement with Cambodia's Chip Mong Group for the study. "The board decided that the project is not a priority while we have many things to do in Thailand," Mr Arto said yesterday. Two of SCCC's kilns have been shut down for five years, but one will be reactivated in October and the opening of the other one is in the pipeline. Under the previous plan, construction of the Cambodian plant was due to start around the end of this year and take two years to complete. (Bangkok Post)
See important disclosures at the end of this report 2
Economic Highlights
India: Rupee Plunge Risks Economic Nosedive for India India needs to immediately use its foreign exchange reserves to arrest the rupee’s record plunge as the weakening currency has the potential to send the economy into a “nosedive,” billionaire Adi Godrej said. India’s rupee plummeted the most in two decades to a record yesterday as a surge in oil prices threatens to worsen a current account deficit and push the economy toward its biggest crisis since 1991. A continued drop in the rupee will stoke inflation, which is at a five-month high, in turn depressing consumer demand and raising costs for companies. India’s budget and current-account deficits are responsible for the rupee’s slide, Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said on Aug. 27. The government is taking steps to contain the shortfall in the broadest measure of trade to within $70 billion in the year through March 2014, he said, compared with an unprecedented $87.8 billion in the previous 12 months. (Bloomberg)
U.S.: Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Dropped 1.3% in July Fewer Americans signed contracts in July to buy previously owned homes, a sign that rising mortgage rates are starting to slow momentum in the housing market. The index of pending home sales dropped 1.3 percent, the most this year, after a 0.4 percent decrease in June, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. Economists forecast no change in the gauge from the month before, according to a median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Mortgage rates at a two-year high and a limited number of existing homes are pushing some prospective buyers out of the market, threatening to slow the pace of the recovery in real estate. Improvements in employment and income growth would help provide additional fuel for housing, which has been a source of strength for the economy. (Bloomberg)
Canada: Canada Factories Count on U.S. Pickup to End Recession Canadian manufacturers, dogged by the effects of a strong currency, are counting on a pickup in U.S. demand to end the sector’s deepest contraction since 2009. Canadian factory production has shrunk 2.7 percent since the end of 2011 and is 7.6 percent weaker than it was in July 2008, right before the country slipped into its last recession. Aside from agriculture, manufacturing is the only part of the economy that has failed to return to pre-slump levels. Manufacturers are contending with a Canadian dollar that has risen 52 percent against its U.S. counterpart since the end of 2001. This has boosted the price of exports, making them less competitive, and increased production costs, such as wages, relative to the U.S. When measured in U.S. dollars, unit labor costs in Canada have increased 92 percent since March 2003, compared with a 12 percent rise for American businesses. (Bloomberg)
Brazil: Brazil Raises Rate to 9% as Real Undercuts Inflation Fight Brazil’s central bank raised the key rate by half a percentage point for a third straight meeting, as a plunge in the currency undermines efforts to slow inflation in the world’s second-largest emerging market. The bank’s board, led by President Alexandre Tombini, today unanimously voted to raise the benchmark Selic rate to 9 percent from 8.5 percent, as forecast by 50 of 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. One economist expected a 75 basis-point increase, while one forecast a 25 basis-point boost. Brazil’s central bank has stepped up efforts to prevent a declining real from undercutting the largest rate increase among the world’s major central banks by pushing inflation above its target range. While last week’s announcement of a $60 billion intervention plan has helped to buoy the currency, policy makers have maintained the pace of rate increases to fight pass-through to consumer prices, according to JPMorgan economist Fabio Akira. (Bloomberg)
U.K.: Carney Offers Banks Liquidity-Rule Sweetener for Lending The Bank of England moved to boost lending to consumers and businesses by the largest U.K. banks by offering to ease liquidity rules for institutions that meet capital targets. The central bank will allow the main U.K. lenders to shrink required holdings of low-yielding, easy-to-sell securities, such as government bonds, once they hold capital reserves equivalent to 7 percent of their risk-weighted assets, Governor Mark Carney said today in his first policy speech since taking over from Mervyn King in July. The Bank of England said in June that five U.K. banks need to find an additional 13.4 billion pounds to meet tougher minimum capital requirements, including the 7 percent rule, set to take effect at the end of this year. Shares of the U.K.’s largest lenders, including Barclays Plc (BARC) and Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY), surged after Carney’s speech today. (Bloomberg)
Spaniards Fleeing Jobless Scourge Seek Jobs in Morocco While Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy says Spain is starting to recover from the crisis and the deepest austerity in its democratic history, it must still deal with the legacy of the recession: a 26 percent jobless rate. Almost a third of the unemployed in the 17- nation euro area are in Spain. With the end of the real-estate boom that attracted foreign workers, annual migration into Spain has fallen by almost half in the past four years. At the same time, the number of Spaniards moving to Morocco last year was 32 percent higher than in 2008. After Latin American and European countries, it was the number one destination for Spanish emigrants. Morocco’s Interior Ministry has urged Europeans coming to work to get permits in a country where the informal economy is estimated at 40 percent of gross domestic product. Labor Ministry statistics show only 10 percent of foreigners living in Morocco have one. (Bloomberg)
See important disclosures at the end of this report 3
Outperform
Current Target Upside/ Rec. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks
(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013F 2013F
ADVANC Buy 238.00 319.00 34.0 18.8 5.3
AOT Buy 149.50 222.00 48.5 19.8 2.0 Trading BTS Buy 7.40 10.20 37.8 34.1 7.3 Trading INTUCH Buy 74.25 104.00 40.1 15.7 5.8 . PTT Buy 318.00 388.00 22.0 8.1 4.3
PTTGC Buy 66.50 82.10 23.5 8.9 5.1
Underperform
Current Target Upside/ Rec. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks
(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013F 2013F
AP Neutral 4.86 6.30 14.0 5.6 3.9
KTB Buy 16.40 28.30 72.6 7.6 4.6
TCAP Neutral 30.00 41.00 36.7 3.9 4.4
TISCO Sell 35.25 41.00 16.3 6.6 7.3
See important disclosures at the end of this report 4
NVDR Daily Trading by Stock Top 20 Net Buy Top 20 Net Sell Rank SymbolNVDR Net Buy Value (Bt mn) Rank Symbol NVDR Net Sell Value (Bt mn) 28-Aug 27-Aug 26-Aug 23-Aug 22-Aug 28-Aug 27-Aug 26-Aug 23-Aug 22-Aug 1 PTTEP 945.4 13.6 (95.9) 427.5 (3.7) 1 SCC (269.4) (321.3) (303.1) (516.9) (49.3) 2 BAY 743.8 (440.0) 98.9 (319.7) 551.0 2 CPALL (207.7) (173.8) (72.7) (143.8) (91.8) 3 PTT 43.1 (151.6) 47.7 27.5 68.3 3 INTUCH (196.0) 2.9 185.2 (11.8) 154.9 4 LPN 30.9 21.5 (0.1) 62.7 (79.1) 4 BBL (193.2) 42.1 (166.6) (12.1) (412.4) 5 IVL 15.3 13.2 21.5 (21.1) (14.9) 5 ADVANC (150.0) (83.8) 24.1 (63.6) (145.9) 6 KTB 13.6 (98.2) (27.6) (67.0) (23.2) 6 CPN (137.3) 22.0 (12.0) 4.2 (3.7) 7 CK 12.1 (0.6) (5.1) 0.0 21.0 7 NOBLE (130.4) (16.1) (4.9) (2.1) 7.4 8 TMB 10.8 5.0 (87.8) (25.4) (147.4) 8 DTAC (128.6) (30.0) (34.5) (137.7) (60.4) 9 ROBINS 9.9 (0.5) (0.4) 5.0 4.2 9 LH (126.8) (1.7) (55.0) (26.0) (307.0) 10 CPF 8.9 (79.4) (9.1) 6.9 108.9 10 BGH (125.2) (18.9) 12.8 (17.6) 61.4 11 DELTA 8.7 (4.7) (4.4) 8.1 1.4 11 PTTGC (116.0) (141.0) (16.0) (76.9) 150.6 12 AEONTS 7.0 7.1 (0.2) (1.5) (0.8) 12 BTS (78.9) 27.2 27.4 23.1 15.6 13 JAS 6.5 16.0 (128.1) 33.2 24.4 13 TUF (76.2) 7.2 (2.6) (5.1) (8.5) 14 STEC 6.4 (28.6) (10.3) 0.1 43.7 14 BANPU (76.1) 64.1 (31.0) 138.1 126.4 15 EGCO 6.0 16.5 (1.1) 12.3 2.6 15 AOT (55.8) (55.6) (85.3) 31.5 (163.9) 16 AP 5.4 5.0 (0.5) 10.5 1.4 16 HMPRO (42.4) (35.0) (7.5) (23.1) (4.5) 17 HEMRAJ 5.2 (13.7) (0.8) (3.3) (1.9) 17 SCB (36.8) (106.9) (24.2) (58.8) (377.6) 18 PM 4.2 7.1 3.1 2.1 7.3 18 GLOBAL (35.5) (4.8) 0.0 (1.2) (3.6) 19 DRACO 3.9 3.3 (0.2) - - 19 MBK (28.4) (6.3) (10.1) 1.6 (1.9) 20 MAJOR 3.7 14.2 17.8 12.3 4.6 20 CENTEL (16.3) 10.0 (7.3) 0.4 (5.2)
------NVDR Most Active Values (Bt m)------NVDR Outstanding Share (m shares)------% No.of Shars Paid Up Capital % of Paid Up Symbol BUY SELL Total NET Turnover Symbol In Hand Shares Capital 1 KBANK 663.9 666.0 1,329.8 (2.1) 24.8 1 TISCO-P 0.02 0.03 66.2 2 PTTEP 1,018.7 73.3 1,092.0 945.4 19.0 2 BBL 576.2 1,908.8 30.2 3 BAY 838.0 94.3 932.3 743.8 27.1 3 KBANK 631.1 2,393.3 26.4 4 LH 286.3 413.1 699.4 (126.8) 46.8 4 INTUCH 734.9 3,206.4 22.9 5 INTUCH 232.5 428.5 661.0 (196.0) 12.7 5 SPALI 379.2 1,716.6 22.1 6 BBL 197.4 390.6 588.0 (193.2) 31.9 6 E-W1 74.6 347.0 21.5 7 ADVANC 206.4 356.4 562.8 (150.0) 11.7 7 GOLD-W1 74.2 392.1 18.9 8 SCC 98.1 367.4 465.5 (269.4) 26.9 8 NMG-W3 302.2 1,647.7 18.3 9 CPALL 77.3 285.0 362.4 (207.7) 11.5 9 LH 1,820.5 10,025.9 18.2 10 PTT 187.9 144.8 332.8 43.1 12.3 10 THRE 637.0 3,512.5 0.0 11 AOT 119.9 175.7 295.6 (55.8) 14.0 11 LPN 251.1 1,475.7 17.0 12 DTAC 72.2 200.8 273.0 (128.6) 27.5 12 TWFP 1.6 9.5 16.7 13 PTTGC 59.7 175.7 235.4 (116.0) 9.3 13 DTAC 369.5 2,367.8 15.6 14 BGH 47.2 172.3 219.5 (125.2) 12.4 14 TCAP 196.8 1,277.8 15.4 15 SCB 84.2 121.0 205.2 (36.8) 5.4 15 AP 426.3 2,859.9 14.9 16 CPN 24.1 161.3 185.4 (137.3) 8.7 16 THIP 1.2 8.0 14.5 17 NOBLE - 130.4 130.4 (130.4) 43.8 17 BAY 849.0 6,074.1 14.0 18 KTB 71.0 57.3 128.3 13.6 4.9 18 LALIN 114.3 825.0 13.9 19 BTS 22.9 101.9 124.8 (78.9) 7.0 19 PRANDA 54.3 406.7 13.3 20 BANPU 22.2 98.3 120.5 (76.1) 8.2 20 GBX 139.2 1,089.1 12.8 Source: SET,RHB OSK
Initiating Coverage, 28 August 2013
OfficeMate (OFM TB) Buy Consumer Cyclical - Retail Target Price: THB71.5 Market Cap: USD323m Price: THB32.3
Macro Risks 2 Online Business Pioneer Growth . 2 0 Value .
02
0
. 03 0 OfficeMate is a major distributor of office supplies and stationery . Officemate (OFM TB) 0 Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) equipment. Its recent merger with Central Retail Corporation (CRC) 0 96 230 involved the transfer of two of the latter’s units, Office Club and B2S, 0 into the group. We like the company for the healthy growth potential of 86 207 its upcoming online business, which will be launched in 4QFY13, and 76 184 initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation and a TP of THB71.50.
66 161
Growth in online business. OfficeMate and CRC aim to launch a new 56 139 online shopping website in early 4QFY13, which will market the latter’s 46 116 entire product range, such as electrical appliances from electronics retailer Power Buy and sporting equipment from Supersports. Moreover, 36 93 CRC’s customers can also use their points from the 1 Card loyalty programme as a discount when purchasing products from the website. 268 70 7 The company also offers free next-day delivery services in 23 provinces 6 and plans to increase its coverage to 50 provinces by 2014. We expect 5 4 revenue from the online business to grow to THB3bn and account for 3 20% of the group’s total turnover in 2016 2 1
Vol Vol m Store expansion. OfficeMate plans to open 10 new stores each year,
focusing on the upcountry areas where the penetration rate is low and
Jul-13
Oct-12 Apr-13
Feb-13 Dec-12 Aug-12 where it only has a few stores. Moreover, the company is in the process of rebranding B2S, which will focus on high school and university Source: Bloomberg students as its target customers. OfficeMate plans to open 10 B2S
Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 18.7m/0.60m stores each year, five of which will be small format outlets opened jointly with Family Mart. Given that it is the top player in the office supply Cons. Upside (%) 207.4 industry, but with only a 25% market share, there is plenty of room to Upside (%) 122 expand for OfficeMate to expand its businesses moving forward. 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 32.3 - 86.3 Free float (%) 31 Higher gross margin As a result of the merger with CRC, the company’s bargaining power over its suppliers has increased, and its Shareholders (%) gross profit (GP) margin is expected to increase by 2% to 28% in 2013. However, we expect the GP margins to decline to 26% in 2014 and Mr Narongrit Chirathivat 9.8 25.5% in 2015, as the proportion of sales from its lower-margin online Mr Sutthitham Chirathivat 9.1 business is expected to increase significantly. Mr Worawoot Ounjai 8.8
Shariah compliant Forecasts and Valuations Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F Total turnover (THBm) 7,177 8,556 11,136 13,424 15,474 Reported net profit (THBm) 288 425 587 677 757 Recurring net profit (THBm) 288 425 587 677 757 Recurring net profit growth (%) 0.0 47.6 38.3 15.4 11.7 Core EPS (THB) 1.18 1.51 1.83 2.12 2.36 DPS (THB) 1.59 0.53 0.73 0.85 0.95 Kowit Pongwinyoo +662 862 9743 Dividend Yield (%) 4.9 1.6 2.3 2.6 2.9 License No.18348 Core P/E (x) 27.3 21.4 17.6 15.2 13.6 [email protected] Return on average equity (%) 0.0 9.8 12.6 13.5 13.9 P/B (x) 1.86 2.31 2.14 1.97 1.82 Chun Phokaisawan +66 2862 2029 P/CF (x) 19.6 18.1 12.1 10.6 9.5 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 13.4 13.2 10.4 8.6 7.1 Net debt to equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash Our vs consensus EPS (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFATM Platform 1
OfficeM ate (OFM TB) 28 August 2013
Thailand’s Next Amazon Core business. OfficeMate was founded in 1994 by CEO Worawoot Ounjai. It started as a business supplying products – ranging from office equipment to daily-use items – to corporations and individual customers. Over the years, it has expanded from stationery and equipment distribution, through catalogue sales and a call centre, and started deriving substantial revenues from online and e-procurement services to some 5,000 public and private sector clients. The company offers free next-day delivery services to customers in Bangkok and nearby provinces. In 2012, it merged with CRC. This corporate exercise saw two CRC business units – Office Club and B2S – transferred under the OfficeMate umbrella. Today, the latter’s three major business units are: i) OfficeMate, ii) B2S, and iii) the online business.
Figure 1: OFM’s business model
OfficeMate
OfficeMate B2S Online Business -Catalog Sales -Store -Department Store Online -Store -Online -e-Business Model -Online Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Figure 2: Sales breakdown
25%
41%
34%
B2S OfficeMate (Store) OfficeMate (Non Store)
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
OfficeMate: With 43 stores throughout the country, OfficeMate is Thailand’s largest retailer of office equipment, stationery supplies and furniture. Additionally, the company’s entire product line is available via catalogue and online. Purchases of THB499 and higher can be delivered free of charge nationwide. As the office equipment and stationery supplies industry is highly fragmented – OfficeMate is the largest player with a market share of only around 25% (most of its competitors are small retailers) – we believe there is plenty of room for the company to expand its business in the future. OfficeMate targets to increase its market share to 50% in the next three years. In 2QFY13, non-store and store revenue accounted for 25% and 34% of total revenue respectively.
Figure 3: OfficeMate’s store format Figure 4: OfficeMate product catalogue
Source: Company Source: Company
See important disclosures at the end of this report 2
OfficeM ate (OFM TB) 28 August 2013
B2S: B2S is a largest edutainment store chain in Thailand with 82 branches nationwide, with more than 60,000 stock-keeping units (SKUs) of books and stationery. B2S’ products are categorised into three groups: i) books, ii) stationery, and iii) entertainment. It retails a variety of books, ranging from: i) foreign titles, ii) business and computers, iii) literature, iv) magazines, and v) educational text. In 2012, books accounted for around 30% of the company’s total sales while stationery goods (mainly school supplies like pens, notebooks, files, paper, office supplies, and art & craft equipment) accounted for 48%. The entertainment segment retails international/domestic music and movies. B2S is currently rebranding itself and intends to focus on the high school and university student demographic as its target customers. OFM plans to open 10 B2S stores each year, five of which will be small format outlets opened jointly with Family Mart.
Figure 5: B2S’ store format Figure 6: B2S online
Source: Company Source: Company
Online: OfficeMate and CRC plan to launch a new online shopping website in early 4QFY13 to sell CRC’s entire product range, which includes electrical appliances from Power Buy and sporting equipment from Supersports. Given that CRC’s total 2012 revenue was THB160bn, and that is expected to grow to THB400bn in 2022, we believe there is a substantial growth potential for OfficeMate’s online business unit, as the company aims to migrate CRC customers to this online offering. Moreover, Thailand’s 2012 e-commerce penetration rate of 2.6% is relatively low when compared to the 6.5% global average. We expect the country’s e-commerce penetration to improve significantly in the near future – this year alone, ICT spending is expected to be exceptionally high on higher investments from both the public and private sectors. Specifically, the Government’s infrastructure investment plans that will boost ICT spending in 2013 include: i) the SchoolNet project, ii) free Wifi spots across the country, and iii) the THB120bn Smart Thailand project. As a result, online transactions should improve accordingly. Hence, we forecast that revenue from OfficeMate’s online business unit will grow to THB2.5bn in 2016, or 16% of total sales.
Figure 7: Worldwide e-commerce sales Figure 8: E-commerce penetration rate
18 2000 16 1800 14 1600 12 1400 1200 10 1000 8
800 6 600 4 400 2 200 0 0 2013F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F North America Asia-Pacific Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East & Africa South Korea US Japan Global China Thailand
Source: eMarketer, RHB estimates Source: National Statistical Office, RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report 3
OfficeM ate (OFM TB) 28 August 2013
Figure 9: Internet vs e-commerce penetration rates Figure 10: Revenue contribution from online business
(THB bn) 90 20 80 18 70 16 4 60 14 3 50 12 2 5 40 10 1 4 4 30 8 0 0 4 3 3 20 6 9 10 4 7 8 5 5 6 0 2 South Korea United States Japan China Thailand 0 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F Internet e-commerce OfficeMate B2S Online
Source: eMarketer, RHB estimates Source: National Statistical Office, RHB estimates
High operational efficiency. OfficeMate’s strength lies in its logistics and customer database management system. The company has been in business for more than 20 years and has compiled in-depth customer information, such as inventory turnover, receivables days and credit terms. As it has its own programming team that builds its own in-house inventory and management system, OfficeMate is able to effectively and efficiently manage its own inventory and logistics. Strong balance sheet. OfficeMate has a strong balance sheet with a net cash position. As its operations have always generated positive and stable cash flow, we believe it can expand without the need to increase capital. We expect its ROE to improve to 9.1% in FY13 and 10.7% in FY14 (from FY12’s 6.8%) due to significant improvement in GP margin after the OFM-CRC merger. 2QFY13 results. OfficeMate reported an 18.8% y-o-y jump in 2QFY13 net income to THB78m. Meanwhile, its total revenue only increased by 3.8% y-o-y, as the company is currently undertaking a logistics and inventory adjustment process post merger. However, its GP margin improved to 28.3% in 2QFY13 from 26.4% in 2QFY12, on the back of improved efficiency in purchasing and inventory management. Its selling, general and administrative (SG&A) to sales ratio climbed to 23.9% in 2QFY13 (from 2QFY12’s 21.9%) as a result of expenses related to its online business, which is expected to launch in 4QFY13. We expect its performance to improve in 2HFY13 when its logistics and inventory adjustment process is completed.
Figure 11: 2QFY13 results Consolidated 2Q13 2Q12 yoy 1Q13 qoq 1H13 yoy year to 31 Dec (THBm) (THBm) %chg (THBm) % chg (THBm) %chg Sale 2,226.4 2,144.0 3.8 2,284.3 -2.5 4,510.7 4.1 Gross Profit 629.4 566.0 11.2 625.1 0.7 1,254.4 7.3 Net Profit 78.2 65.8 18.8 102.9 -24.0 181.1 -1.5 Net Profit (Ex EI) 78.2 65.8 18.8 102.9 -24.0 181.1 -1.5
Gross margin(%) 28.3 26.4 7.1 27.4 3.3 27.8 3.1 SG&A to sale (%) 23.9 21.9 9.3 21.6 10.5 22.8 n.a. Net margin(%) 3.5 3.1 14.4 4.5 (22.1) 4.0 (5.4) Source: Company data
Initiate with BUY. We initiate coverage on OfficeMate with a BUY recommendation and a DCF-based TP of THB71.50, using a terminal growth rate of 1% and WACC of 8.05%. The company is currently trading at 24.0x FY13F P/E, which reflects the future growth potential of its online business.
Figure 12: Peer comparison P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA Div yield (%) ROE (%) EPS Company 2013F 2014F 2013F 2014F 2013F 2014F 2013F 2014F 2013F 2014F 2013F 2014F Suning Commerce 44.7 26.7 2.0 1.9 21.7 18.3 0.6 0.5 4.8 4.6 0.2 0.3 K's Holding Corp 13.0 11.8 1.1 1.0 9.1 8.2 1.9 1.9 9.8 9.3 247.2 272.0 Yamada Denki 14.8 13.1 0.6 0.6 9.6 8.5 2.3 1.9 5.1 4.5 226.4 256.6 Staples 10.3 11.4 1.5 1.5 5.0 5.6 3.1 3.4 14.0 13.4 1.4 1.2 OfficeMax 19.6 17.9 0.9 0.9 8.1 7.7 0.8 0.8 4.5 6.5 0.5 0.6 OfficeMate 21.4 16.3 2.0 1.9 12.5 9.8 2.4 3.1 11.2 13.8 1.5 2.0 Source: Bloomberg, RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report 4
OfficeM ate (OFM TB) 28 August 2013
Financial Exhibits
Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F Total turnover 7,177 8,556 11,136 13,424 15,474 Cost of sales (5,131) (6,274) (8,201) (9,976) (11,576) Gross profit 2,046 2,282 2,935 3,449 3,898 Selling expenses (1,662) (1,753) (2,203) (2,604) (2,954) Operating profit 383 529 732 845 944 Operating EBITDA 525 634 886 1,038 1,175 Depreciation of fixed assets (142) (105) (154) (193) (231) Operating EBIT 383 529 732 845 944 Interest expense (4) (0) (1) (1) (1) Pre-tax profit 380 529 732 844 943 Taxation (92) (104) (145) (167) (187) Profit after tax & minorities 288 425 587 677 757 Reported net profit 288 425 587 677 757 Recurring net profit 288 425 587 677 757
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Cash flow (THBm) Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F Operating profit 383 529 732 845 944 Depreciation & amortisation 142 105 154 193 231 Change in working capital 46 (18) 113 108 98 Other operating cash flow (39) (4) 2 (1) (1) Operating cash flow 533 612 1,002 1,144 1,272 Interest paid (4) (6) (4) (0) (1) Tax paid (128) (104) (145) (167) (187) Cash flow from operations 400 501 853 977 1,085 Capex (198) (450) (350) (350) (300) Other investing cash flow 566 59 20 20 20 Cash flow from investing activities 368 (391) (330) (330) (280) Dividends paid (387) (170) (235) (271) (303) Increase in debt (104) 3 2 2 2 Other financing cash flow (0) 0 (0) (0) 0 Cash flow from financing activities (492) (167) (233) (269) (301) Cash at beginning of period 377 654 598 888 1,266 Total cash generated 277 (57) 290 378 504 Implied cash at end of period 654 597 888 1,266 1,770
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report 5
OfficeM ate (OFM TB) 28 August 2013
Financial Exhibits
Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F Total cash and equivalents 722 666 956 1,334 1,838 Inventories 1,266 1,129 1,476 1,796 2,084 Accounts receivable 404 342 445 537 619 Other current assets - 17 22 27 31 Total current assets 2,392 2,155 2,900 3,694 4,572 Total investments 61 61 61 61 61 Tangible fixed assets 564 870 1,066 1,223 1,292 Intangible assets 3,286 3,266 3,246 3,226 3,206 Total other assets 28 34 45 54 62 Total non-current assets 3,938 4,231 4,417 4,564 4,621 Total assets 6,330 6,385 7,317 8,257 9,192 Short-term debt 2 2 2 3 3 Accounts payable 2,050 1,569 2,050 2,494 2,894 Other current liabilities 27 309 396 475 547 Total current liabilities 2,078 1,879 2,448 2,972 3,445 Total long-term debt 4 6 8 9 11 Other liabilities 33 30 39 47 54 Total non-current liabilities 37 36 47 56 65 Total liabilities 2,115 1,915 2,495 3,028 3,510 Share capital 320 320 320 320 320 Retained earnings reserve (116) 139 491 897 1,351 Other reserves 4,012 4,012 4,012 4,012 4,012 Shareholders' equity 4,215 4,470 4,822 5,229 5,683 Total equity 4,215 4,470 4,822 5,229 5,683 Total liabilities & equity 6,330 6,385 7,317 8,257 9,192
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Key Ratios (THB) Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F Revenue growth (%) 0.0 19.2 30.1 20.5 15.3 Operating profit growth (%) 0.0 38.1 38.3 15.4 11.7 Net profit growth (%) 0.0 47.6 38.3 15.4 11.7 EPS growth (%) 0.0 27.7 21.8 15.4 11.7 Bv per share growth (%) 0.0 (19.2) 7.9 8.4 8.7 Operating margin (%) 5.3 6.2 6.6 6.3 6.1 Net profit margin (%) 4.0 5.0 5.3 5.0 4.9 Return on average assets (%) 0.0 6.7 8.6 8.7 8.7 Return on average equity (%) 0.0 9.8 12.6 13.5 13.9 Net debt to equity (%) (17.0) (14.7) (19.6) (25.3) (32.1) DPS 1.59 0.53 0.73 0.85 0.95 Recurrent cash flow per share 1.64 1.78 2.67 3.05 3.39
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report 6
OfficeM ate (OFM TB) 28 August 2013
SWOT Analysis
Largest distributor of stationery supplies and office Changing equipment in Thailand consumer behaviour Strong customer database, and in-house logistics and management system Competition from international companies
Potential growth in the online business
Weakening Thai economy
P/E (x) vs EPS growth P/BV (x) vs ROAE
30 35% 2.50 16.0%
25 29% 2.00 12.8%
20 23% 1.50 9.6% 15 18% 1.00 6.4% 10 12%
0.50 3.2% 5 6%
0 0% 0.00 0.0%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs) P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs)
Source: Company data, RHB estimates Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Company Profile OfficeMate (OFM) was founded by the Ounjai family in 1994. The company started as a business supplying corporate and individual customers with a range of products from office equipment to daily use items. Over the years, it has expanded from stationery and equipment distribution, through catalogue sales and a call centre, to an Internet-based business – deriving substantial revenue from online and e-procurement services for some 5,000 government and private sector clients. OFM offers free next-day delivery services to customers in Bangkok and the nearby provinces. In 2012, it merged with Central Retail Corporation (CRC), after which two CRC business units, Office Club and B2S, were transferred to OFM.
See important disclosures at the end of this report 7
OfficeM ate (OFM TB) 28 August 2013
Recommendation Chart
Price Close 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jul-10 May-11 Feb-12 Dec-12
Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg
Date Recommendation Target Price Price
2013-08-26 Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report 8
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
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Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2012
ADVANC BCP DRT IRPC NOBLE QH SC SYMC TOP AOT BECL EASTW KBANK PHOL RATCH SCB THAI TSTE ASIMAR BKI EGCO KK PS ROBINS SCC TIP TTA BAFS BMCL ERW KTB PSL RS SE-ED TIPCO BANPU BTS GRAMMY LPN PTT SAMART SIM TISCO BAY CPN HEMRAJ MCOT PTTEP SAMTEL SIS TKT BBL CSL ICC NKI PTTGC SAT SNC TMB
2S BROOK DTAC HMPRO MACO OFM S&J SSSC THRE TSC ACAP BWG DTC HTC MAKRO OGC S&P STANLY TIC TSTH AF CENTEL ECL IFEC MBK OSIHI SABINA STEC TICON TTW AIT CFRESH EE INTUCH MBKET PAP SAMCO SUC TIW TUF AKR CGS EIC ITD MFC PDI SCCC SUSCO TK TVO AMATA CHOW ESSO IVL MFEC PE SCG SVI TLUXE UAC AP CIMBT FE JAS MINT PG SCSMG SYNTEC TMT UMI ASK CK FORTH KCE MODERN PHATRA*** SFP TASCO TNITY UP ASP CM GBX KGI MTI PJW SITHAI TCAP TNL UPOIC AYUD CPALL GC KSL NBC PM SMT TCP TOG UV BEC CPF GFPT L&E NCH PR SPALI TFD TPC VIBHA BFIT CSC GL LANNA NINE PRANDA SPCG TFI TRC VNT BH DCC GLOW LH NMG PRG SPI THANA TRT WACOAL BIGC DELTA GUNKUL LRH NSI PT SPPT THCOM TRU YUASA BJC DEMCO HANA LST OCC PYLON SSF THIP TRUE ZMICO
*** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.
AEONTS BGT CMO GENCO JTS LHBANK NC PTL SGP SWC TPAC UT AFC BLA CNS GFM JUBILE LHK NNCL Q-CON SIAM SYNEX TPCORP VARO AGE BNC CNT GLOBAL JUTHA LIVE NTV QLT SIMAT TBSP TPIPL WAVE AH BOL CPL GOLD KASET LOXLEY OSK QTC SINGER TCB TPP WG AHC BROCK CRANE HFT KBS MAJOR PAE RASA SIRI TEAM TR WIN AI BSBM CSP HTECH KC MATCH PATO RCL SKR TF TTCL WORK AJ BTNC CSR HYDRO KDH MATI PB RICH SMIT TGCI TWFP ALUCON BUI CTW IFS KIAT MBAX PICO ROJNA SMK THANI TYCN AMANAH CCET DRACO IHL KKC M-CHAI PL RPC SOLAR TKS UBIS APCO CEN EASON ILINK KTC MDX POST SAM SPC TMD UEC APCS CHUO EMC INET KWC MJD PPM SCBLIF SPG TMI UIC APRINT CI EPCO IRC KWH MK PREB SCP SSC TNH UMS ARIP CIG FNS IRCP KYE MOONG PRECHA SEAFCO SST TNPC UOBKH AS CIMBI*** FOCUS IT LALIN MPIC PRIN SENA STA TOPP UPF ASIA CITY FSS JMART LEE MSC PSAAP SF SVOA TPA US
*** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.
IOD (IOD Disclaimer) การเปิดเผลผลการส ารวจของสมาคมส่งเสริมสถาบันกรรมการบริษัทไทย (IOD) ในเรื่องการก ากับดูแลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นี้เป็นการ ด าเนินการตามนโยบายของส านักงานคณะกรรมการก ากับหลักทรัพย์และตลาดหลักทรัพย์ โดยการส ารวจของ IOD เป็นการส ารวจและประเมินจากข้อมูลของบรษัทจด ทะเบียนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยและตลาดหลักทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยต่อสาธารณะและเป็นข้อมูลที่ผู้ลงทุนทั่วไปสามารถเข้าถึงได้ ดังนั้นผลส ารวจ ดังกล่าวจึงเป็นการนาเสนอ ในมุมมองของบุคคลภายนอกโดยไม่ได้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบัติและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมูลภายในในการประเมิน
อนึ่ง ผลการสารวจดังกล่าว เป็นผลการส ารวจ ณ วันที่ปรากฎในรายงานการก ากับดูและกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเท่านั้น ดังนั้นผลการส ารวจจึงอาจ เปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลังวันดังกล่าว ทั้งนี้บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี โอเอส เค จ ากัด (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยันหรือรับรองถึงความถูกต้องของผลการส ารวจดังกล่าวแต่อย่างใด