Speculation on Racing Odds in India
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Speculation on Racing Odds in India Puri, Stine Simonsen Published in: Economy and Society DOI: 10.1080/03085147.2020.1712856 Publication date: 2020 Citation for published version (APA): Puri, S. S. (2020). Speculation on Racing Odds in India. Economy and Society, 49(1), 170-186. https://doi.org/10.1080/03085147.2020.1712856 Download date: 29. sep.. 2021 Economy and Society ISSN: 0308-5147 (Print) 1469-5766 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/reso20 Speculation on racing odds in India Stine Simonsen Puri To cite this article: Stine Simonsen Puri (2020) Speculation on racing odds in India, Economy and Society, 49:1, 170-186, DOI: 10.1080/03085147.2020.1712856 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/03085147.2020.1712856 Published online: 14 Feb 2020. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 151 View related articles View Crossmark data Citing articles: 2 View citing articles Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=reso20 Economy and Society Volume 49 Number 1 2020: 170–186 https://doi.org/10.1080/03085147.2020.1712856 Speculation on racing odds in India Stine Simonsen Puri Abstract Horse racing has existed in India since the British established race clubs across the continent as places for socializing and legal gambling. Today, betting on horses in Delhi is a form of speculation, where bettors not only calculate probabilities of horses, but try to figure out insider knowledge of rigged races by observing the odds. This becomes particularly evident when betting odds on a particular horse suddenly change with an accelerating speed because people start betting for the same horse – a phenomenon, in finance, known as ‘herding’. Inspired by Clifford Geertz’ study of the connection between betting odds and deep play, the study identifies deeper causes of market volatility, beyond market strat- egies and crowd psychology, in the cosmology of uncertainty of the society in which the speculative market is located. Keywords: gambling; speculation; horse racing; odds; India; acceleration. Introduction Betting on horses at the Delhi Race Club might seem to be a very particular prac- tice of speculation, but this paper suggests that it resembles futures trading (in particular before this went online) and broader popular practices of using social imaginaries to calculate the future. Betting on horses takes place in a space of con- densed market information where the process of decision-making, actual exchange and evaluation occurs within short periods of time. This is interspersed with pauses between races that lead participants into wider conversations about Stine Simonsen Puri, Department of Cross-cultural and Regional Studies, University of Copenhagen, Karen Blixensvej 4, Building 10, 2300 Copenhagen, Denmark E-mail: [email protected] Copyright © 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group Stine Simonsen Puri: Speculation on racing odds in India 171 social life. Every 30 minutes, 10 minutes before the horses are due to take off, bettors go to the betting ring to observe the constantly shifting odds. Based on this, they make their final decision on which horse(s) to bet on. The Delhi Race Club provides a highly significant microcosm from within which to study practices of speculation on moving numbers for profit. This speculation centres around a particular kind of numerical calculation of odds. In general usage, odds is often used as another word for probability, but in gambling, odds also refer to the pay-out ratio, which changes according to what others are betting. Initially, odds are set based on the probability of the horses winning based on their past performance. However, the numbers change as soon as the bookmakers start receiving bets. They are adjusted according to how much betting has taken place on the various horses, so that bookmakers can manage their risks (or pari-mutual betting systems can make their margins). They thus end up being a reflection of what others are betting. In India, odds are called bhav, which refers to a price or rate at a particular point in time. This price constantly changes according to supply and demand or relations between buyers and sellers. Odds therefore mimic the dynamic forms of pricing of commodities or legal instruments in financial markets. Importantly, like the prices of financial commodities and instruments, the odds at the Delhi racecourse are highly volatile. Just a few minutes before the horses are about to spring out of their gates, the odds on one of the horses can take off in an accelerating spurt. This results in bettors from diverse social backgrounds frantically running around the ‘ring’, placing bets with the bookmakers lined up in a circle. The bookmakers constantly adjust the odds as more and more bets are placed. This sudden acceleration can turn things around, and make a poorly rated horse into the crowd’s favourite. With odds below one, in this situation bettors are willing to stake more money than they are able to make as profit. The accelerated betting means that odds start to polarize. This creates a regular situation in which one horse has very short odds with a small pay-out ratio and the rest have relatively long odds. This creates the possibility that one can win up to 30 times what one has staked. This potentiality emerges as the bettors all start betting on the same horse. In economics, such extreme market volatility has been understood as a process of ‘herding’, where financial traders copy what others are doing. Classic theories argued that this was the irrational behaviour of people acting collectively out of emotion rather than clear-headed calculations of facts (Borch, 2007). In later literature, ‘rational herding’ is identified as a conscious strategy, because in the end, markets move where people go. In this body of work, it is assumed that people calculate at a meta-level that they can profit by following the crowd, so herding is rational (Devenow & Welch, 1996). In all of these economic approaches (and in more recent accounts of algorithmic machine trading) such volatility is considered a central threat to market stability, as it can cause both bubbles and market crashes (Borch, 2016). In this paper, I will radically depart from this economic literature by using ethnographies of gambling to understand market volatility. This is a ‘forbidden’ 172 Economy and Society move since economics is always at pains to separate out gambling from the ways in which formal financial markets discover prices. This distinction was at the core of the interventions of colonial and other states in the regulation of exchange, as well as at being at the heart of neo-Keynesian and neoliberal econ- omics (Birla, 2009). To achieve this move I will draw on Clifford Geertz’ (1973) piece on gambling on cockfighting in Bali. In the long paragraph titled ‘Odds and even money’, Geertz bridges his early economic anthropology and his later interpretative analysis to connect the patterns of odds with the cultural context. In this discussion, Geertz shows how the numbers in a speculative market develop out of a cultural ‘depth’ or from a cosmology. Crucially, the betting odds are not tied to the cockerels fighting in the ring. Instead, they emerge in accordance with what others are betting, and ultimately from the status and connections between the men who own the cockerels. For those present, the cockfight and betting drama constitutes a meta-commentary on their own culture, society and masculine status within it. Geertz builds his argument on a distinction between status and money gam- bling. The first occurs where there is a lot of masculine prestige at stake and is manifest in balanced odds close to even money. In this situation, the two cock- erels about to fight are backed equally as their owners and their kin place large amounts of money on the bird independent of its physical chances of winning. In this case, the cockerels are being bet on as symbols of male power. In contrast, with money gambling another order takes over and less status is at stake. The odds tend to change once the betting gets started and then polarize, with odds going up for one and down for another bird. What is interesting is that it is only in the absence of calculations of honour and status that the odds end up differentiating from one another. Geertz’s analysis is helpful in that it alerts us to the significance of masculinity and status in betting, but, as I will show, it has a dichotomous representation of status versus money gambling. The case of the Delhi racecourse, where prices are highly volatile and odds become stretched, does not just demonstrate a ‘rational’ calculation of the phys- ical potential of horses. Instead, something more akin to masculine status betting occurs; except what is being bet on is the imagination of forms of masculine sociality associated with the informal, corrupt economy of urban life. Alongside this, concepts of cosmology are at work, of betting as an already rigged game, as it is represented in Indian mythology. Significantly odds, and by implication all sorts of market prices, are not made volatile by pure rational calculation as in Geertz’s model or by irrational herding as in economic theories. They are made volatile by imaginings of uncertain, hidden social and cosmological orders behind the surface of prices. Betting on horses at the Delhi Race Club is thus a form of speculation, characterized by an engagement with uncertainty, which is more oriented towards the unknown – and the potentially hidden – than towards known facts (Bear et al., 2015). Importantly this makes betting in this context perhaps part of a broader global social shift towards financialisation (Miyazaki, 2013; Zaloom, 2003).