National Park Service & Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning Climate Change in Alaska’s National Park Areas State of Change 1 Stories of Change from HI SEA KC Alaska’s National Parks CHU WHAT HAPPENS IN ALASKA DOESN’t stAY IN ALASKA Whether you live in Alaska or are visiting the state, we invite you to join the conversation about climate change in Alaska’s national parks. This guide is one way for all stakeholders to engage. Noatak Cape From the coastal rainforests of Southeast Alaska to the treeless tundra north Krusenstern Kobuk of the Arctic Circle, Alaska’s national parks embody a diversity of climates KOTZEBUE SOUND Valley and living landscapes. Alaskans and visitors alike are uncertain about how a changing climate will impact their lives, but they recognize that becoming more self-reliant and prepared will provide clear benefits. By planning for, Bering Land Bridge rather than reacting to, climate change, park users can improve their health, protect their livelihoods, save money, and create more resilient communities. Explore the following stories about the impacts of climate change and the innovative ways in which Alaskans—and all of us—can learn, respond, and adapt in a changing world. NORTON SOUND HOW DO WE KNOW ALASKA IS waRMING? While weather can change from day to day and even minute to minute, cli- mate is a measure of long-term patterns and trends. Climate change refers to changes in long-term averages of daily weather. “Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.” We know that our planet is warming because multiple lines of evidence all come to the same conclusion. In Alaska, average annual temperatures have increased by as much as 5 degrees F since 1949. It is difficult to determine whether a flooding event, a melting glacier, or an animal’s change in diet is a response to a change in climate. To do so, it is important to understand the role of each part of a regional system and whether a change has been occur- WIM ring over a long period of time. The more we understand those connections, KOK the more certain we can be that what we’re observing is attributable to a KUS BAY changing climate. Climate cycles are driven by variations in both human-in- duced and naturally occurring phenomena. The current rapid warming trend is linked to greenhouse gases that human BRISTOL activities add to the atmosphere. Throughout most of Earth’s history, global BAY temperature and greenhouse gases have fluctuated but remained in balance. Aniakchak Over recent decades, however, the burning of fossil fuels has added a dis- BERING SEA proportionate amount of carbon to our atmosphere, which results in higher temperatures. Warming trends are exaggerated in Alaska and other Arctic regions because as ice and snow melt, the darker ground cover left behind absorbs yet more heat. Current warming trends are very likely to continue. Aleutian World War II 2 BERING LAND BRIDGE NATIONAL PRESERVE Iñupiat Heritage Center “Every year, until the protective winter pack ice returns, we agonize that the next storm will be the one that wipes us out.” CHUKCHI SEA PLACE Luci Eningowuk, Shishmaref Erosion and Location Coalition HOLDER NOATAK NATIONAL PRESERVE “Communities out here depend on a healthy environment for food, and if there are changes in the environment, that’s going to create PLACE changes in our eating and our harvesting of animals.” Gates HOLDER John Chase, Northwest Arctic Borough of the Arctic YUKON-CHARLEY RIVERS NATIONAL PRESERVE “In the 25 years I have worked as a meteorologist in Alaska, I have seen background conditions that are much different than when I was a young man just getting into forecasting.” Rick Thoman, National Weather Service Yukon- DENALI NATIONAL PARK Alaska Public Lands Charley “I have worked on glaciers in Alaska for Information Center Rivers over 10 years, and within the time I have been here I have seen the changes in a noticeable way.” Alaska Public Lands Information Anthony Arendt, University of Alaska Center Denali GLACIER BAY NATIONAL PARK Wrangell- “We can see some of the impacts of Saint Elias climate change in California, but it was really evident throughout our trip to Alaska.” APLIC Anchorage Blair P., California Klondike Gold Rush Lake Clark Kenai Fjords Glacier Bay GULF OF ALASKA COOK INLET Sitka Katmai BRISTOL BAY QUICK INDEX: DISAPPEARING GLACIERS .............PAGES 4-5 FROZEN GROUND ..........................PAGES 6-7 WILDFIRES ......................................PAGES 8-9 WILDLIFE ON THE MOVE ..........PAGES 10-11 EXTREME EVENTS ......................PAGES 12-13 SHRINKING SEA ICE ...................PAGES 14-15 OCEAN ACIDIFICATION .............PAGES 16-17 PACIFIC LANDSCAPE SCALE CHANGE ....PAGES 18-19 OCEAN NEW VISITOR EXPERIENCES ......PAGES 20-21 THE FUTURE IS NOW .................PAGES 22-23 3 Changing Attractions Why are Alaska’s glaciers disappearing so fast? What was on the top of your list of things to see and do during your visit to Alaska? If you are like many other visitors to the state, you wanted to see a glacier. Glaciers are a special resource for the National Park Service. Each year, millions of people visit one or more of Alaska’s nine glaciated parks GROWING OR SHRINKING? WHAt’s doWNSTREAM? 20 YEARS TRACKING ICE Each winter, snow accumulates It is very likely that Alaska’s gla- In the past 10 years, Gulf of high in Alaska’s mountain ranges. ciers will continue to lose more Alaska glaciers have lost hun- Not all of this snow melts during mass than they are able to gain. dreds of billions of tons of ice. the summer months, and some This will cause sea level to con- The amount of freshwater added eventually becomes blue gla- tinue to rise, and may also impact to the ocean as a result is equal cier ice. Like rivers, glaciers flow the physical and biological sys- to completely draining the five downslope from the mountains. tems that are closely connected Great Lakes each month for a At lower elevations, glaciers lose to glaciers. In inland parks, gla- decade. As glaciers melt, the mass to melting or to calving. Like cial meltwater affects the shape freshwater they release changes a bank account, glaciers can have of streams, as well as the plants the ecology and chemistry of the a positive or negative net balance and animal habitats that border rivers downstream. Glaciologist in a year. A glacier with a negative streams. In coastal parks such as Anthony Arendt at the University balance tends to thin or recede. Glacier Bay National Park, run- of Alaska Fairbanks is working In order to see if long-term cli- off from tidewater glaciers adds with the National Park Service mate trends are causing glaciers cold water, nutrients, and sed- to document changes in glaciers to lose mass, scientists use satel- iments to the ocean. Seabirds, so that the National Park Service, lites to detect overall changes in fish, and marine mammals rely commercial operators, and oth- glacier mass over large regions on the unique water conditions ers can plan for and adapt to the and several glaciers. created by glaciers. continued loss of glacier ice. PaRKS TakE ACTION In order to understand how gla- ciers are changing, NPS undertook a multi-year study in six of Alaska’s park areas. Results of this study showed glacial loss and thinning in many areas. For example, ice cover in Gates of the Arctic dimin- ished 43% between the 1970s and the 2000s; ice cover in areas surrounding Klondike diminished 18% between 1948 and 2011; and all but two Denali glaciers showed loss of mass. Variable results in some parks can be at- tributed to historical mapping er- rors or fragmentation of glaciers. p Many of Alaska’s National Parks (green) have glaciers (blue). Glaciers cover about 5% of the state of Alaska. 4 }Glaciers in Alaska probably won’t disappear in the next 100 years, but they are likely to change a lot and make large contributions to rising sea levels.~ Anthony Arendt, Glaciologist University of Alaska Fairbanks }I have been studying glaciers for over 20 years now, national parks. We started by looking at gla- and I find it fascinating because it brings together so ciers on the USGS maps of Alaska created in many elements of science. I always wanted to do the 1950s. Then we compared this with satellite something that would allow me to spend time imagery from 2010. We have also set up tem- outside and study how the earth was respond- perature and precipitation monitors so that we ing to climate, and this was a great avenue for can explore the ways that glaciers may respond that. to climate change in the future. In one project, we are trying to create an inven- Anthony Arendt, Glaciologist tory of all the glaciers and icefields in Alaska’s University of Alaska Fairbanks SCIENCE NOTES: AIR IN THE ICE While glaciers form, tiny bubbles of air are trapped in the ice, preserving small samples of air from the time period. Scientists are able to analyze air samples from very deep ice cores in Antarctica and Greenland dating back as far as 800,000 years. They can also identify how much carbon in the bubble came from burning fossil fuels because it has an atomic signa- ture that differentiates it from other atmospheric car- bon. By studying ice, we have confirmed that not only are humans adding carbon dioxide to the at- mosphere in disproportionate amounts, but that the source of this extra carbon dioxide is the burning of fossil fuels. u Anthony and Joanna conduct research on the Kahiltna Glacier in Denali National Park.