DOCSLIB.ORG

Calm Before the Storm? By: Tom Goldblatt, Managing Partner, Ravinia Capital LLC

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Calm Before the Storm? By: Tom Goldblatt, Managing Partner, Ravinia Capital LLC Calm Before the Storm? By: Tom Goldblatt, Managing Partner, Ravinia Capital LLC Since May 1st I’ve held a series of conversations trying eligibility on their receivables. So there may to understand two things: be an extra 5 or 10% or another 15% on their inventory, but lend it with a source of repayment • What is happening now in the restructuring so when things do get better, you've got way industry, and to get it back. • trying to get a sense of expectation of work for “I think between the PPP money and our customers restructuring professionals. stretching their vendors, our customers right now have After talking to scores of bankers, investors and more liquidity than I've seen. So it's probably the calm consultants, the general consensus is that for now before the storm. I think we'll probably have some aggressive restructuring work is mostly on pause. very difficult decisions to make in 60 days, 90 days, if things don't improve. But for now, we're kind of catching Banks are being encouraged to “extend and pretend”— our breath.” giving borrowers more time to pay, pre-tending they are still creditworthy—precisely to avoid adding another “Extend and Pretend” was a common strategy used by shock to a struggling economy. I’ve heard from several lenders in 2009. In most cases this turned out to be a banks that for now they are trying to be accommodating successful approach as the economy recovered. In my as they wait and see how things unfold. opinion, it will end up being different this time due to the length of time companies will sustain loss waiting for the Norman Bobins, Vice Chairman of CIBC US Region, shared pandemic and the economic fallout to end. that, “the banks are all taking very large reserves. Right now, they are loading up based on expected defaults, to be ready for it. They're getting a lot of encouragement from the Fed to be lenient, for lack of a better word. They've encouraged banks to restructure. By restructure, I mean push payments out.” Mike Sharkey, President, Asset Based Lending at Fifth Third Business Capital, agrees: “So we're kind of in the calm before the storm right now, if things don't improve. I think we all have wishful thinking that things are going to get back to normal. I think our customers in general are flush with liquidity right now because of PPP. But I told my guys this afternoon, "You've got to be talking to your customers. Get those 13-week forecasts, because, unless there's another round of PPP, this could be the calm Restructuring work is highly correlated to bankruptcy, before the storm." and bankruptcy historically is highly correlated to the unemployment rate. If this holds (see chart), expect an He added, enormous amount of filings. “What we're trying to do on accommodations Thus, although the future is never certain, this appears to for the customer is try and help them, particularly be the calm before a blizzard of restructuring work. My if they've been viable or we've been with them advice to my fellow TMA members is to get ready to be a long time. We're trying to figure out ways to busy and do your best to use your skills and knowledge help them with their liquidity needs, but with a to save companies and help the economy. source of repayment. So if their customers are stretching them, give them an extra 30 days .
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Recognizing the Calm
    Recognizing the Calm By Gus Andrews How recognizing who Jesus is & what Jesus did brings calm into a believer's life. Luke 24:13-35 Introduction We begin a new series this morning that we are calling “The Calm Before the Storm.” When I googled that phrase the first definition that popped up was this one: “a period of unusual tranquility or stability that seems likely to precede difficult times.” And that’s the time of the NT Church that we are going to look at over the next eight or nine weeks. We’re going to look at the time between Jesus’ death, burial and resurrection– and the time when the Church began preaching and reaching and bringing thousands to the Lord Jesus AND SUFFERED INCREDIBLE PERSECUTION FOR DOING SO! And we’re going to try to use their example of how they prepared for their upcoming storm to see if we might gain a few insights about how we might prepare for whatever storms might be coming our way as well. Helpful insights about… Recognizing the Calm (And using the time provided by the calm for…) Substantiating A Faith of Your Own (And Thinking Twice) Before You Go Running Half Cocked Into the Storm (And) Powering Up While Things Are Still Calmed Down (As well as something About) Prayer Before the Storm (And) Listening to the Lord (How) A Little Help From Heaven Never Hurts! (And About) Making Hay While the Sun Still Shines! (How) Happy Days (Can Be) Are Here Again! All great lessons that those early Christians teach by the way they prepared for their upcoming storm.
    [Show full text]
  • DOG SPIDERS Written by Ammon Gilbert from A
    DOG SPIDERS Written by Ammon Gilbert From a Concept by Ammon Gilbert, Jim Law, and Johnny Moreno © BingeMedia 1 We open up the movie in a science lab, and not just any science lab, but something out of THE AMAZING SPIDER - MAN (that's for you Law, no w shut your mouth), something that's filled with lab coats, beakers, and fancy high - tech equipment that nobody really knows how to operate, but goddamn does it look cool. There are various scientists wandering around with clipboards, pocket protectors, thi ck - rimmed glasses, and classic white shin - hanging lab coats. It's a typical day at the ol' science lab doing typical science lab shit. Trotting down one of the many isles like it owns the place is a Golden Retriever. Like many Golden Retriever, this one ha s a perpetual smile on its face and looks about as happy as a pig in shit just being there. We focus on its collar to find its name is GINGER ). Ginger trots down the a isle on its way to its owner, Dr. Jack Hammer. Jack is a regular Rico Suave: handsomely g ood looking with a chiseled chin and a beefed out frame to match (i.e., the perfect role for Paul Logan). He is also sporting a lab coat and thick rimmed glasses because he's a scientist and that's what scientists do. He's currently working on some science shit, pouring liquid into various beakers, analyzing data, and concentrating intensely. Ginger stops trotting and sits by Jack , obviously wanting attention.
    [Show full text]
  • The Arts in Russia Under Stalin
    01_SOVMINDCH1. 12/19/03 11:23 AM Page 1 THE ARTS IN RUSSIA UNDER STALIN December 1945 The Soviet literary scene is a peculiar one, and in order to understand it few analogies from the West are of use. For a vari- ety of causes Russia has in historical times led a life to some degree isolated from the rest of the world, and never formed a genuine part of the Western tradition; indeed her literature has at all times provided evidence of a peculiarly ambivalent attitude with regard to the uneasy relationship between herself and the West, taking the form now of a violent and unsatisfied longing to enter and become part of the main stream of European life, now of a resentful (‘Scythian’) contempt for Western values, not by any means confined to professing Slavophils; but most often of an unresolved, self-conscious combination of these mutually opposed currents of feeling. This mingled emotion of love and of hate permeates the writing of virtually every well-known Russian author, sometimes rising to great vehemence in the protest against foreign influence which, in one form or another, colours the masterpieces of Griboedov, Pushkin, Gogol, Nekrasov, Dostoevsky, Herzen, Tolstoy, Chekhov, Blok. The October Revolution insulated Russia even more com- pletely, and her development became perforce still more self- regarding, self-conscious and incommensurable with that of its neighbours. It is not my purpose to trace the situation histori- cally, but the present is particularly unintelligible without at least a glance at previous events, and it would perhaps be convenient, and not too misleading, to divide its recent growth into three main stages – 1900–1928; 1928–1937; 1937 to the present – artifi- cial and over-simple though this can easily be shown to be.
    [Show full text]
  • The Calm Before the Storm
    """ -"" r y"t1r-"FW'W FRIDAY Baseball SPARTAN raring to go for the January 28, 1996 Vnitmse 108 1996 season. AMY Number 2 See page 6 ... Published tor San Jose Slate Univetuity duce 1934 Trustees slash THE CALM remedial classes Spartan Duly Sull It inter hank \A add at Wednesday's board meeting in BEFORE The California State nisei sit) Long Brach, where San Diego Board of Trustees vi iii- Trustee Ralph Pesqueira presented Wednesclay to niaket dras- the Committee on Educational tic reductii utus ill remedial educa- Policy's recommendation. tion over the next 12 years. After the presentation, the floor THE STORM They hope to reduce the need was opened to public comment. for the classes rather than elultuj- About 211 students spoke about the nate them entirely, an ifle.1 111,1( proposal. most id them against it. has met with fierce ("posit', in CAT- Wada said. iier this year. lbey argued the The trustees have lift 'sal was unreal- set a goal of reducing sill and Would allow the number of reme- fewer students admis- dial classes offered by sion to (SU schools. Above: MBA 10 percent by the But Wada, who candidate Vincent year 2001,50 percent said he supports the Koukpaizan by 2005 and 90 per- plan, said. "This rec- researches tax cent by 2007. ommendation we The plan also aims passed was made codes on the first to encourage educators in the front comments of the same indi- floor of Clark CSU system to work with kinder- viduals ilia i still oppose it." Library Monday garten through 12th grade schools A 511)11 tmunittee led by to better prepare students for col- Mar\ .111111 Itu ighes, president of afternoon, a full lege study.
    [Show full text]
  • California State University, Northridge
    CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE THE SPATIAL PRACTICES OF SOUL REBEL RADIO IN LOS ANGELES’ THIRD WORLD LEFT A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements For the degree of Master of Arts Chicano and Chicana Studies By Miguel Paredes August 2012 The thesis of Miguel Paredes is approved: _________________________ ______________________ Professor Yreina D. Cervántez Date _________________________ ______________________ Dr. Gabriel Gutierrez Date _________________________ _______________________ Dr. David Rodriguez, Chair Date ii Dedication To the young people in Los Angeles, to the working class communities in the Third World Left throughout Southern California especially Elysian Valley aka “Frogtown” in Northeast LA, to the over 50 members of the Soul Rebel Radio collective especially the founding members Eduardo, Laura, Javier, Jose, Tito, Teresa, Hasmik, Jorge, XL, Travis, Oriel, and Lex, to the KPFK staff and audience, to the staff of the CSUN Chican@ Studies Department especially Dr. Rudy Acuña, Dr. Alberto Garcia, Harry Gamboa, Fermin Herrera, Dr. Mary Pardo, Dr. Gabriel Gutierrez, Yreina D. Cervántez, Dr. Jorge Garcia, Ruben Mendoza, and posthumously dedicated to Roberto Sifuentes , Dr. Shirlene Soto, and “Toppy” Flores. To my family especially my mother Lucila Paredes, my father Miguel Paredes Sr., my brother Adrian Paredes, my sister Gabriela Paredes and her daughter Dahlila and son Ivan, my brother Daniel Paredes, and his son Diego, to my best friends Mike and Guzman, to my godchildren Juliette, Justin, Isaac, Elia, and Ehecatl, and to the Fe@s including Pascual, Mixpe, and Chris, but particularly to Ixya Herrera for giving me the motivation and support to complete my Master’s Degree in Chican@ Studies.
    [Show full text]
  • The Fioretti (Spring 2020)
    MUShare The Fioretti Archives Spring 2020 The Fioretti (Spring 2020) Marian University - Indianapolis Follow this and additional works at: https://mushare.marian.edu/fio Part of the Literature in English, North America Commons, and the Publishing Commons Recommended Citation Marian University - Indianapolis, "The Fioretti (Spring 2020)" (2020). The Fioretti. 93. https://mushare.marian.edu/fio/93 This Book is brought to you for free and open access by the Archives at MUShare. It has been accepted for inclusion in The Fioretti by an authorized administrator of MUShare. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE FIORETTI2020 THE FIORETTI2020 The Student Literary Journal of The Fioretti WHAT IS Spring 2020 THE FIORETTI? CHRISTOPHER BRAKE COLLEEN R. SCHENA SARAH WITCHEY ELIZABETH SEXTON Content Editors CONNOR MILLER Art, Design, & Layout Editor The Fioretti is the Marian University literary journal PROFESSOR NATE LOGAN founded in 1943. The word “Fioretti” comes from Faculty Advisor a collection of short stories and popular legends about the life of St. Francis of Assisi (patron of Watercolor flower images from thedesignest.net Marian University and the Sisters of St. Francis of Oldenburg), titled Fioretti di San Francesco d’Assisi. The word itself means, “Little Flowers.” This is our collection of work or “Little Flowers” by the students of Marian University over the 2019-2020 school year. We hope you enjoy this edition of Marian University’s Fioretti. TABLE OF MEMOIR CONTENTS SHORT STORY POETRY Hope Faith Morgan 03 Crown
    [Show full text]
  • Idioms-And-Expressions.Pdf
    Idioms and Expressions by David Holmes A method for learning and remembering idioms and expressions I wrote this model as a teaching device during the time I was working in Bangkok, Thai- land, as a legal editor and language consultant, with one of the Big Four Legal and Tax companies, KPMG (during my afternoon job) after teaching at the university. When I had no legal documents to edit and no individual advising to do (which was quite frequently) I would sit at my desk, (like some old character out of a Charles Dickens’ novel) and prepare language materials to be used for helping professionals who had learned English as a second language—for even up to fifteen years in school—but who were still unable to follow a movie in English, understand the World News on TV, or converse in a colloquial style, because they’d never had a chance to hear and learn com- mon, everyday expressions such as, “It’s a done deal!” or “Drop whatever you’re doing.” Because misunderstandings of such idioms and expressions frequently caused miscom- munication between our management teams and foreign clients, I was asked to try to as- sist. I am happy to be able to share the materials that follow, such as they are, in the hope that they may be of some use and benefit to others. The simple teaching device I used was three-fold: 1. Make a note of an idiom/expression 2. Define and explain it in understandable words (including synonyms.) 3. Give at least three sample sentences to illustrate how the expression is used in context.
    [Show full text]
  • NO ME WITHOUT YOU Thesis Submitted to the College of Arts
    NO ME WITHOUT YOU Thesis Submitted to The College of Arts and Sciences of the UNIVERSITY OF DAYTON In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for The Degree of Master of Arts in English By Sandra E. Riley, M.Ed UNIVERSITY OF DAYTON Dayton, Ohio August 2017 NO ME WITHOUT YOU Name: Riley, Sandra Elizabeth APPROVED BY: ____________________________________ PJ Carlisle, Ph.D Advisor, H.W. Martin Post Doc Fellow ____________________________________ Andrew Slade, Ph.D Department Chair, Reader #1 ____________________________________ Bryan Bardine, Ph.D Associate Professor of English, Reader #2 ii ABSTRACT NO ME WITHOUT YOU Name: Riley, Sandra Elizabeth University of Dayton Advisor: Dr. PJ Carlisle This novel is an exploration of the narrator‟s grief as she undertakes a quest to understand the reasons for her sister‟s suicide. Through this grieving process, the heroine must confront old family traumas and negotiate ways of coping with these ugly truths. It is a novel about family secrets, trauma, addiction, mental illness, and ultimately, resilience. iii Dedicated to JLH iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Thank you to my earliest reader at the University of Dayton—Dr. Meredith Doench, whose encouragement compelled me to keep writing, despite early frustrations in the drafting process. Thank you to Professor Al Carrillo—our initial conversations gave me the courage to keep writing, and convinced me that I did in fact have the makings of a novel. Thank you to Dr. Andy Slade, who has been gracious and accommodating throughout my journey to the MA, and to Dr. PJ Carlisle, who not only agreed to be my thesis advisor her last semester at UD, but gave me the direction and input I needed while understanding my vision for No Me Without You.
    [Show full text]
  • Calm Before the Storm Letting Go(D) Sermon Series: Pride Promises, Promises Markruth 11:1-111:1-18
    Calm Before the Storm Letting Go(d) Sermon Series: Pride Promises, Promises MarkRuth 11:1-111:1-18 Marh 28, 2020 Palm Sunday By By Rev. Jeffrey V. O’Grady Rev. Jeffrey V. O’Grady Pastor January 14, 2007 San Marino Community Church 1750 Virginia Road San Marino, CA 91108 (626)San Marino 282-4181 Community • Fax: (626) 282-4185Church www.smccpby.com1750 Virginia • [email protected] Road San Marino, CA 91108 (626) 282-4181 • Fax: (626) 282-4185 www.smccpby.com • [email protected] All rights reserved. These sermon manuscripts are intended for personal use only and may not be republished or used in any way without the permission of the author. March 28, 2021To the extent possible, effort has been madeCalm to preserve Before the the quality Storm of the spoken word in this writtenRev. adaptation. Jeff O’Grady, Pastor Today, on Palm Sunday, we conclude the sermon series, “Letting Go, Letting God” with a look at how pride can lead to a downfall. We’re not talking about pride in our accomplishments or being proud of our children. Self-respect is a positive thing and doesn’t necessarily lead to pride. However, we are talking about a lack of humility. Dante defined pride as the “love of self, perverted to hatred and contempt for one’s neighbor.”1 Who do you know that loves themselves excessively, that always puts themselves and their own interests first? Does that description fit Ty Cobb or Mickey Mantle for you? Donald Trump or Governor Andrew Cuomo? Madonna or Megan the Stallion? Pavarotti or Placido Domingo? My day timer has a “thought of the day” this week that read, “It is a funny thing about life; if you refuse to accept anything but the best, you very often get it.” Doesn’t it seem sometimes that the people who refuse to accept anything but the best, often succeed where others don’t? I’m a March Madness NCAA fan at this time of year.
    [Show full text]
  • THE CALM BEFORE the STORMS Downloaded From
    Clarification: 20 June 2019. See full text. NEWS FEATURES THE CALM BEFORE THE STORMS Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ A spotless sun, as seen in May by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory. The sun is nearing on September 13, 2019 solar minimum. Scientists studying the 11-year solar cycle are trying to predict when a quiet sun will next turn violent or all of February the sun is nearly By Sarah Scoles, lar maximum can damage their technologies. spotless, a smooth circle filled in in Boulder, Colorado Sunspots can be seen with the naked eye, with a goldenrod crayon. It has been but it wasn’t until the mid-1800s that astrono- more than a decade since it was so will reach its peak, and how unruly it will be- mers realized they come and go on a rough lacking in sunspots—dark magnetic come. As light reflects off snow caught in the schedule. They first appear at midlatitudes knots as big as Earth that are a baro- trees and streams through the tall windows and then proliferate, migrating toward the meter of the sun’s temperament. Be- of a conference room, the Solar Cycle 25 Pre- equator over about 11 years. In 1848, Swiss low the surface, however, a radical diction Panel comes to order. NASA and the astronomer Johann Rudolf Wolf published transition is afoot. In 5 years or so, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis- an account of the sunspot record, identi- the sun will be awash in sunspots and more tration (NOAA) have sponsored these panels fying 1755–66 as “Cycle 1,” the first period Fprone to violent bursts of magnetic activity.
    [Show full text]
  • The Calm Before the Storm
    The Calm before the Storm Ever since I was a little girl, I have loved to watch the birdies. I loved it when our yard became filled with the cardinals, snow birds, sparrows, and other feathered friends. You could almost predict the weather or my cats’ whereabouts from their frenzies. Today, it seems that we have a whole lot in common with the birds. Many of us feel a sense of unrest in our spirits. There are so many weird things going on in our world that we have to be very intentional about maintaining our sense of peace and focus. We cannot allow ourselves to succumb to fear, but we must prepare. Over the past few months, I have been telling my clients that they must prepare spiritually, emotionally, and physically. What they did last year to prepare is not enough to get them through. Preparation must occur regularly and with greater intensity. There are more stressful situations in our midst daily. Since the stress is higher, the remedy must increase in proportion to the stresses. We must condition and prepare just as an athlete prepares for the opponent. I have never been one to understand sports, but motherhood has expanded my horizons. My son talked me into enrolling him in martial arts when he began middle school. He was excited to begin and the first few classes were relatively easy. Every year he has been expected to accomplish more. He has had to work out many times a week. Last week’s workout did not excuse him from this week’s workout.
    [Show full text]
  • Vegetable Crops Hotline C/O Dan Egel Southwest Purdue Agricultural Program 4369 N Purdue Rd Vincennes, in 47591
    EGETABLE ROPS OTLINE VA newsletter for commercial vegetable growers C prepared by the Purdue University H Cooperative Extension Service Dan Egel, Editor (812) 886-0198 No. 511 [email protected] July 24, 2009 <http://www.btny.purdue.edu/pubs/vegcrop> IN THIS ISSUE • As p A r A g u s ru s t • th e CA l m Be f o r e t h e st o r m - Co r n eA r w o r m s • In s e C t ici d e s I n hI g h tu n n e l s • gu m m y st e m Bl I g h t v s . An t h r ac n o s e o n WA TERMELON • oB s e r v A t I o n s f r o m t h e pu m p k I n vA r I e t y tr ia l A t pI n n e y -pu r d u e • do w n y m I l d e w up d A t e • ph y t o p h t h o r A B l I g h t • In d ia n A pe s t ici d e Cl e A n sw e e p pr o j e C t ASP A R A GUS RUST - (Liz Maynard and Dan Egel) - This disease was observed in northern Indiana recently. Rust Figure 2: Lesions of asparagus rust turn dark with the pro- can be a serious disease of asparagus.
    [Show full text]