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Morning Insight Morning Insight APRIL 2, 2019 % Chg News Highlights 1-Apr 1 Day 1 M th 3 M ths Indian Indices The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will again swap up to $5 bn to infuse SENSEX Index 38,872 0.5 7.7 7.1 durable liquidity in the system, a month after the first swaps saw a NIFTY Index 11,669 0.4 7.4 7.0 massive response from banks. (BS) NSEBANK Index 30,327 (0.3) 12.1 10.7 The promoters of Zee Entertainment have sold Rs 3.32 bn worth of the NIFTY 500 Index 9,702 0.4 7.4 5.5 firm’s shares in recent months, according to exchange disclosures. (BS) CNXMcap Index 18,333 0.4 8.1 2.5 BSESMCAP Index 15,144 0.8 8.3 2.5 Vinod K Dasari has joined Royal Enfield (Eicher Motor), the noted World Indices motorcycle maker, as chief executive officer (CEO). (BS) Dow Jones 26,258 1.3 0.9 12.5 Nasdaq 7,829 1.3 3.1 17.4 Elantas Beck India appointed Srikumar Ramakrishnan as President of FTSE 7,317 0.5 3.0 8.7 the Company, M Srikumar Ramakrishnan will be appointed as successor NIKKEI 21,509 1.4 (0.1) 7.8 of M Ravindra Kumar, MD in due course. (MC) Hangseng 29,562 1.8 2.6 17.6 Shanghai 3,170 2.6 5.9 28.6 Cyient expects material decline in design led manufacturing revenue, as a large order delivery of $5 mn has been delayed due to delay in 1-Apr % Chg Day Value traded (Rs cr) regulatory clearances at customer end. For services segment, Cash BSE 3,505 (47.0) deferment of orders by key customers and marginal growth of 1 percent Cash NSE 38,209 (10.7) to 2 percent expected. Operating margin outlook for financial year 2019 Derivatives - - remains the same. (BQ) Net inflows (Rs cr) 29-M ar MTD YTD Godrej Properties sold over 2,900 homes with a booking value in excess FII 0 33,116 49,499 Mutual Fund 142 (7,627) 1,707 of Rs 21 bn in Q4 FY19. (MC) Gateway Distriparks completed acquisition of entire stake held by Nifty Gainers & Losers P rice Chg V ol 1-Apr (Rs) (%) (mn) Blackstone in arm for Rs 8.5 bn on March 29. (MC) Gainers PVR opened 4 screens multiplex at The Celebration Bazaar, Khanna in Tata Motors 187 7.5 46.4 Punjab and 5 screens multiplex at City Centre Mall, Guwahati in Assam. Hindalco Ind 216 5.1 18.5 (MC) Tata Steel 535 2.7 13.5 Losers Centrum Capital has sold its entire equity holding in its wholly-owned Zee Entertainment 432 (3.1) 4.4 subsidiary company, Centrum Defence System Limited and Centrum UPL Ltd 934 (2.6) 1.4 Infrastructure Advisory Limited. (MC) Indian Oil Corp 159 (2.6) 20.2 Dr Lal PathLabs approved acquisition of Bawankar Pathology. (MC) Advances / Declines (BSE) 1-Apr A B T T otal % total Karnataka Bank targets Rs 1440 bn turnover for FY20. (MC) Advances 282 719 73 1,074 100 CRISIL has extended Banswara Syntex’s rating in respect to the total Declines 179 248 54 481 45 Unchanged - 10 16 26 2 bank loan facilities of the company - long-term rating at BBB/Stable and Short-Term Rating at A3+. (MC) Commodity % Chg 1-Apr 1 Day 1 M th 3 M ths Cipla’s U.S. arm signed a definitive agreement for investment of $22 mn Crude (US$/BBL) 69.1 0.2 6.3 25.9 for asset co-development and licensing opportunity for Pulmazole drug Gold (US$/OZ) 1,287.8 (0.4) (0.4) 0.2 with Pulmatrix. This agreement is contingent upon Pulmatrix raising Silver (US$/OZ) 15.1 (0.1) (0.8) (2.8) additional funds from the market. Upon signing the definitive agreement, the co-development cost towards development and the total Debt / Forex Market 1-Apr 1 Day 1 M th 3 M ths free cash flow in relation to commercialisation of Pul. (BQ) 10 yr G-Sec yield % 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.4 Re/US$ 69.2 69.3 70.7 69.8 A Rs 1bn commercial tax order was set aside by tax authorities for Welspun Corp. The said order was made in respect of manufacturing Nifty 11,900 unit of Gujarat’s manufacturing plant. (BQ) 11,400 What’s Inside 10,900 Market Strategy: Market Outlook for April 2019 10,400 IPO Note: Metropolis Healthcare Limited 9,900 Source: ET = Economic Times, BS = Business Standard, FE = Financial Express, IE = Indian Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Express, BL = Business Line, BQ = BloombergQuint, ToI: Times of India, BSE = Bombay Source: Bloomberg Stock Exchange, MC = Moneycontrol Kotak Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by the Private Client Group. APRIL 2, 2019 Sanjeev Zarbade MARKET OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2019 [email protected] +91 22 6218 6424 Market Outlook: Indian markets continued to rally in March on strong FII flows even though domestic flows have been losing traction. Indian equities had underperformed in January and February compared to other emerging markets. The Indian market’s strong performance over the past few weeks reflects (1) the market’s increased confidence about the BJP-led NDA coalition retaining power post the 2019 national elections albeit with fewer number of seats compared to its current position, (2) ‘catch-up’ in the Indian market given its under-performance to other EM markets in the first six weeks of CY2019, (3) growing confidence about the earnings of the financial sector, the primary driver of earnings of the broad market in FY2020 and (4) re- rating in multiples of beaten-down stocks, especially PSU stocks and mid- and small-cap names. Portfolio Strategy: Keeping in mind the volatility expected in 2019 led by factors such as developed market slowdown, US-China trade fears, Brexit, domestic elections, oil prices, it would be ideal to have a bottom up approach and pick & choose good quality, beaten down stocks from respective sectors. To weather the on-going volatility which may remain till middle of CY19 (i.e. till General elections), it is ideal to have higher allocation into high earnings growth large caps and midcaps (with strong management pedigree and reasonable valuations). Among the large caps one can focus on select stocks from sectors like banks, pharmaceuticals, IT services, metals & mining and oil & gas. In the mid-caps, one can focus on select stocks from sectors like capital goods, construction and auto ancillaries. Also, PSU as a space is looking good in view of the limited risk of share sale by government and attractive valuations. Valuations: Based on 13%/25% (Source: KIE) estimated growth in earnings of FY19E/20E, the Nifty is currently trading at 17.8x/15.3x FY20E/21E, respectively (free float basis). Valuation of Nifty looks reasonable when viewed against recent historical valuations of ~18-20x on forward PE basis (mainly due to high earnings growth expectation). The Sensex has rallied 7% in March, which is significant. The mid and small caps indices have also rallied 7% respectively. Given the political developments, we believe that markets may continue to trade higher though the upmove may be lower than in March. Stable inflation, rate cuts by RBI, sustained FII flows are some of the positives. On the other hand, geopolitical tensions, firming up of crude prices and US China trade issues/Brexit could be negative factors for markets. PSU stocks investment theme – In this month’s market strategy, we advocate an investment theme based on select PSU stocks. We have handpicked some of the promising PSUs based on their undervaluation and strength of business. In view of the upcoming elections, we believe that risk of share sale by government (which dampens stock price) is limited in the near term. Our selected PSU stocks offer attractive upside from the current levels. Good dividend yield is an added advantage. TOP INVESTMENT IDEAS Recommended Stocks Company CMP* Target Price Potential Upside 52 Week H/L Market Cap (Rs) (Rs) (%) (Rs) (Rs mn) Coal India 236 290 22.7 303 / 211 1467431 GAIL (India) 355 455 28.3 399 / 295 799874 ONGC 157 215 36.7 192 / 128 2018027 SBI 321 370 15.0 340 / 232 2880411 Power Grid 196 235 20.1 217 / 173 1023299 EIL 120 153 27.9 168 / 100 75608 Cochin Shipyard 392 555 41.5 544 / 333 51590 Source: Kotak Institutional Equities; Kotak Securities – Private Client Research; *CMP as on 1 April 2019. Kotak Securities – Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 2 APRIL 2, 2019 1-month performance of benchmark global indices (%) - (March 2019) MSCI India 11.7% Hang Seng Index -3.2% MSCI Asia Pacific -7.0% FTSE Index 3.3% DAX Index -3.5% MSCI World Index 2.9% Dow Jones Index 8.7% S&P 500 Index 8.8% NIKKEI Index 0.8% Nasdaq Index 11.2% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Source: Bloomberg Market performance – sector wise (March 2019) 15.0% 13.7% 13.4% 12.0% 10.6% 9.8% 9.0% 7.8% 7.7% 8.1% 8.1% 6.0% 4.7% 5.5% 3.6% 3.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Source: Bloomberg Kotak Securities – Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 3 APRIL 2, 2019 GLOBAL MARKETS Pace of global economic growth showing signs of weakness The ongoing concerns about the health of the world economy heightened in March after key economic data from the US and Germany showed weakening manufacturing activity.
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