A Land Use Regression Application Into Simulating Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Particulate
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Pol. J. Environ. Stud. Vol. 29, No. 6 (2020), 4065-4076 DOI: 10.15244/pjoes/118426 ONLINE PUBLICATION DATE: 2020-05-22 Original Research A Land Use Regression Application into Simulating Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Concentration in City of Xi’an, China Bin Guo1*, Xiaoxia Wang1, Donghai Zhang1, Lin Pei2, Dingming Zhang1, Xiaofeng Wang3,4 1College of Geomatics, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an, China 2School of Public Health, Xi’an JiaoTong University, Xi’an, China 3Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation, Xi’an, China 4School of Earth Science and Resources, Chang’an University, Xi’an, China Received: 25 December 2019 Accepted: 24 February 2020 Abstract Decreasing of PM2.5 concentration in the heating season was not significant in Xi’an. This article determined a land use regression (LUR) model and researched the distribution characteristics of PM2.5 in heating and non-heating seasons in Xi'an. The results showed that: (1) The R2 of LUR was larger than 0.9, and the simulation results were better than previous studies. (2) The PM2.5 concentration in the heating season was larger than in the non-heating season. In Xi’an, the distribution of PM2.5 concentration was low in the southeast and high in the northwest in the non-heating season and was low in the southeast and high in the main urban region in the heating season. (3) The PM2.5 concentration was affected by temperature, average air pressure, altitude, humidity and precipitation in non-heating season and was influenced by precipitation, altitude, average air pressure, vegetation, and density of roads in heating season. (4) This paper showed some improvements in selection of potential variables for LUR model, and the conclusion can provide a scientific basis for PM2.5 pollution control and a reliable method for simulating PM2.5 concentration in other cities. Keywords: ambient air pollution, geographic information system (GIS), uapping, modelling, urban areas Introduction opening-up policy and has become the second-largest economy in the world. However, economic development China has been making tremendous achievements has also led to a series of environmental issues, in economic development since the reform and and China is currently facing serious air pollution challenges [1]. It is unhealthy to be exposed to ambient air pollution, and it increases the probability of mortality, and morbidity decreases life expectancy. *e-mail: [email protected] 4066 Guo B., et al. Therefore, the report in Global Burden of Disease Study small-scale concentration of PM2.5 [10], nighttime (GBD) identified air pollution as a leading cause of lighting data simulation method [20], and a model global diseases, especially in low-income and middle- between other pollutants concentration and PM2.5 income countries [2]. At the same time, some of research concentration [12]. Although field sampling method results revealed that PM2.5 was the fifth largest death could acquire high precision data, it was costly, time- risk factor in 2015 [3]. Xi’an, a famed tourist destination consuming and inefficient. The nighttime lighting as well as the largest national central city in northwest data simulation method could be used for obtaining China, has been experiencing severe air pollution which the spatial distribution of PM2.5 concentration on a has become an urgent issue that threatens people's large scale. However, the accuracy was low for PM2.5 health and quality of life. Xi’an has taken several concentration simulation in a small scale. Therefore, measures to improve air quality since 2013, such as we should find a new method to simulate PM2.5 coal reduction, vehicle control, dust suppression, source concentration and analyze the probable influences from of contamination control and green area enhancement. nature and human beings. At the same time, Xi’an is As a result, a statement released by the Bureau of Xi’an undergoing unprecedented urbanization process that ecological environment in 2017 indicated the air quality leads to obvious landscape change [21]. In addition, achieved “one increase”, “two decreases” and “four Xi’an appears some unreasonable land use cases, and declines” compared with 2013, those were the number the urban planning of Xi’an may neglect the effects of of excellent days increased from 138 days to 180 days, natural factors and human activities on the landscape the number of heavy pollution days decreased from [22]. Land use change is due to human activities and 67 days to 39 days, the number of extraordinary natural factors [23]. Some of previous studies used land pollution days decreased from 8 days to 0 days, and the cover maps derived from remote sensing images to average annual PM2.5 concentration declined by 30.5% evaluate the changes in urban development and green from 2013 to 2017, respectively. However, the number areas [23-33]. Furthermore, some recent studies are of excellent days in the heating season was only 68 of to develop a landscape plan according to the aims of 180 excellent days, the improvement of air quality was sustaining the natural and cultural landscape values of not very ideal in the heating season, and the air quality an area by considering landscape variables such as the was still inferior and showed an obvious difference number of potential visitors, vegetation cover, cultural between the heating season and the non-heating season. values and the topographic structure. ArcGIS was used At the same time, the conclusion that the concentrations to evaluate the landscape variables, and the study data of multiple air pollutants during the heating season were obtained through a land survey, questionnaires were higher than those during the non-heating season and maps [23-35]. Besides, some of the previous studies resembled results from different regions, such as Czech have revealed that urban planning including land use, Republic [4], Italy [5] and China [6-7]. urban spatial structure, spatial form, transportation Most of the previous studies in Xi’an focused on and green space may affect concentrations of air the chemical composition of PM2.5 in a small scale pollutants [36-38]. Moreover, particulate matter can be [8-15]. However, the current studies seldom simulate purified and absorbed by urban green spaces [39], and PM2.5 concentration on a small grid-scale, so the the landscape pattern of green spaces (such as edge existing results could hardly meet the needs of density and patch density) can also influence PM2.5 precision for further study. At present, there were two concentration [40]. Hence, the PM2.5 concentration is main methods for spatial distribution simulation of not only affected by natural factors but also influenced PM2.5 concentration. One was the spatial interpolation by human activities especially land use and urban method, and the other was remote sensing inversion planning, so it is feasible to control PM2.5 concentration through aerosol optical depth (AOD) products. Firstly, through optimizing land use structure, urban planning, the spatial interpolation method used limited in-situ spatial form, transportation and green space [37]. sampling data to establish an approximation function Therefore, it is possible to simulate PM2.5 concentration to simulate the PM2.5 concentration outside the in-situ through land use and urban planning perspective, sites. However, the precision of spatial interpolation and the LUR model supply probability for simulating method had some uncertainties [16]. Moreover, the PM2.5 concentration. The LUR model was often used spatial interpolation method could not be implemented to predict pollutant distribution, including NO2, NOX in some places if in-situ sampling sites data was sparse and PM2.5 [41-44]. The LUR model is based on or missing, so the results would not be reasonable monitoring data and land use information within a [17]. Secondly, remote sensing inversion method took certain radius of the monitoring sites, road traffic advantage of the relationship between AOD and PM2.5 characteristics and other relevant geographic variables concentration to simulate PM2.5 concentration [18]. to construct regression model [45]. The LUR model is However, the spatial resolution of PM2.5 concentration able to generalize regression relationship to simulate products based on remote sensing inversion were also the spatial distribution of pollutants in unmonitored coarse and were inadequate to satisfy simulation for areas [46]. In short, LUR model can simulate PM2.5 PM2.5 concentration on a small-scale [19]. Besides, concentration with higher simulation precision for there were field sampling methods for measuring further study. A Land Use Regression Application... 4067 The purposes of this study were: (1) to establish the Data Sources LUR model for PM2.5 in a heating season and a non- heating season in Xi’an. (2) to map the distribution of PM2.5 Data PM2.5 on a grid scale. (3) to analyze the influence factors for PM2.5. (4) to supply some suggestions for improving PM2.5 concentration data with a period from air quality in Xi’an. November 15, 2016 to November 14, 2017 was collected from the Xi’an Air Quality Daily Reporting System (http://www.xianemc.gov.cn/). There are 13 air quality Materials and Methods monitoring stations in Xi’an (Fig. 1, Table 1). The mean concentration during a heating season (From November Study Area 15, 2016 to March 15, 2017) and a non-heating season (From March 16, 2017 to November 14, 2017) was Xi’an is located in the center of the Guanzhong calculated respectively. Basin. The overall terrain is elevated in the north and south and low in the center. It has a warm, temperate, Potential Independent Variable Data semi-humid, continental monsoon climate with four distinct seasons. The annual average temperature (1) Land use data with 30m resolution was collected is 15.6ºC and the average annual precipitation is from the Department of Earth System Science of 649.0 mm.