Tsunami Propagation Scenarios in the South China Sea

Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 36 (2009) 67–73

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Journal of Asian Earth Sciences

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Tsunami propagation scenarios in the South China Sea

Dao My Ha a,*, Pavel Tkalich a, Chan Eng Soon a,b, Kusnowidjaja Megawati c a National University of Singapore, 14 Kent Ridge Road, Singapore 119223, Singapore b National University of Singapore, 9 Engineering Drive 1, Singapore 117576, Singapore c Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore 639798, Singapore article info abstract

Article history: This paper studies extreme tsunami scenarios in the South China Sea potentially originated from a giant Received 20 May 2008 rupture along the Manila Trench. Tsunami height and arrival time to the major coasts along the SCS are Received in revised form 2 July 2008 computed using TUNAMI-N2-NUS model. Sensitivity of tsunami parameters to the rupture properties is Accepted 17 September 2008 explored numerically. For tsunami waves potentially originated from the Manila Trench, it is shown that the Sunda Shelf and the Natuna Islands may act as a natural barriers, sheltering southwest part of the South China Sea and Singapore Strait. Keywords: Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Tsunami propagation South China Sea Manila Trench

1. Introduction 2007; Dao et al., 2008; Romano et al., submitted for publication). The present paper describes scenario-based tsunami threat analy- After the tragic Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, national scien- sis for the SCS. tific and forecasting establishments of the Indian Ocean Rim have started building capacity to provide efficient warnings of tsunami 2. Tsunami propagation model threat. Accurate process-based models have been applied and quick data-driven methodologies are being developed. While Paci- The tsunami propagation model TUNAMI-N2 used in this paper fic Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC) and Japan Meteorological was originally developed in Disaster Control Research Center Agency (JMA) have mapped fault zones and other potential sources (Tohoku University, Japan) through the Tsunami Inundation Mod- of tsunami in the Pacific Ocean since the middle of last century, eling Exchange (TIME) Program (Goto et al., 1997). TUNAMI-N2 has study of tsunamigenic sources in the Indian Ocean have just been been utilized intensively in Japan to study propagation and coastal started. Very few studies have been conducted to assess tsunami amplification of tsunami in relation to different initial conditions threat in the South China Sea (SCS), which has been excluded from (Goto and Ogawa, 1992; Imamura and Shuto, 1989; Shuto and a consistent hazard mapping in the past. It is believed that there Goto, 1988; Shuto et al., 1990). The model has also been imple- are potential tsunami sources in the region due to the fault rupture mented widely to simulate tsunami propagation and run-up in along the Manila Trench. Even though the probability of strong the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans, with zoom-in at particular earthquakes from the Manila Trench is not very high, it may inev- areas of Japanese, Caribbean, Russian, and Mediterranean seas itably strike sometimes in the future (Megawati et al., 2009). (Yalciner et al., 2000, 2001, 2002; Yalciner, 2004; Zahibo et al., Singapore lies at the confluence of the Pacific Ocean and the In- 2003; Tinti et al., 2006). dian Ocean, southwest of the SCS, and thus national forecasting TUNAMI-N2 code has been improved by the authors (Dao and authorities have to be aware of tsunami threats from both sides. Tkalich, 2007) to capture the effects of the Earth’s curvature, Cori- Singapore is developing its national tsunami research and warning olis force, and wave dispersion on propagation of transoceanic tsu- capabilities, which will contribute eventually into the regional sci- nami. The initial condition of a tsunami is prescribed as a static entific and forecasting networks. Some tsunami propagation sce- instantaneous elevation of sea level identical to the vertical static narios from potential sources due to fault rupture along the coseismic displacement of the sea floor, as given by Mansinha Sunda Arc (Indian Ocean) were considered in the previous publica- and Smylie (1971) for inclined strike-slip and dip-slip faults. Initial tions by the authors (Tkalich et al., 2007a,b,c; Dao and Tkalich sea surface deformation due to multiple and non-simultaneous ruptures is calculated using the fault model of Mansinha and Smy- * Corresponding author. lie (1971) for each individual rupture, and the resulting surface E-mail address: [email protected] (M.H. Dao). deformation is linearly added to the current sea surface. Moving

1367-9120/$ - see front matter Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jseaes.2008.09.009 68 M.H. Dao et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 36 (2009) 67–73 boundary conditions are applied at land boundaries to allow for AMI-N2 (named TUNAMI-N2-NUS) is thoroughly veriﬁed at test run-up calculation, and free transmitted wave condition is applied cases, laboratory experiments and real cases, and subsequently ap- at the open boundaries. The code is sped up three to four times by plied to scenario-based tsunami modeling in Indian Ocean (Dao optimizing loops and memory usage. The modiﬁed version of TUN- and Tkalich, 2007; Tkalich et al., 2007a,b; Dao et al., 2008).

Fig. 1. (a) The active plate margins of South-East Asia, showing trenches, arcs, and main faults (Hutchison, 1989); (b) computational domain, a hypothetical earthquake source used in the study and observation points along South China Sea coasts.

Fig. 2. Scenario A earthquake at the Manila Trench (left pane) and discrete model of 33 segments (right pane). M.H. Dao et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 36 (2009) 67–73 69

Table 1 shear faults as well as by submarine landslides at steep slopes of The fault parameters of the 33 discrete rectangular segments. the sea bed (see Fig. 1 adopted from Hutchison (1989)). Box Strike Dip Rake Depth Length Width Slip As shown in Fig. 1, largest earthquake related tsunami threat to no. (°) (°) (°) (km) (km) (km) (m) the communities along the SCS coast is coming from the Manila 1 324.46 21.78 90 7.50 40.41 19.30 5 Trench. The entire subduction zone extends from the south of 2 325.20 11.26 90 7.50 54.19 38.68 5 the main island of Philippines Archipelago to the south of Taiwan. 3 318.66 6.55 90 7.50 54.09 66.93 12 A plausible rupture scenario at the Manila Trench has been identi- 4 332.40 5.79 90 7.50 54.00 75.68 12 fied as scenario A as shown in Fig. 2 (see more details in Megawati 5 0.26 6.47 90 7.50 53.89 67.52 25 6 7.39 11.50 90 7.50 80.59 37.51 28 et al. (2009)). This scenario describes a rupture of the entire Trench 7 5.85 10.01 90 7.50 53.56 43.13 28 which has the maximum slip of 40 m at the middle part and grad- 8 355.99 8.46 90 7.50 53.43 51.06 28 ually reduces to 5 m at the two ends. The rupture extends over 9 358.34 7.18 90 7.50 53.28 60.09 30 1000 km and has a maximum width of 150 km. The sinuosity of 10 2.50 6.16 90 7.50 53.14 69.93 30 11 16.26 6.52 90 7.50 52.99 65.93 35 the rupture may lead to different focusing effects of potential tsu- 12 40.34 5.93 90 7.50 105.57 72.15 40 nami waves to vulnerable coasts facing the Manila Trench. This 13 35.93 5.36 90 7.50 52.60 79.67 40 scenario is identified as the worst-case and would generate an 14 21.46 5.70 90 7.50 78.62 74.61 35 earthquake with MW above 9. Moreover, taken into account the 15 352.23 3.28 90 7.50 78.24 129.36 30 rising time of the fault, we consider three possibilities of rupture 16 332.43 6.25 90 7.50 103.81 67.36 25 17 339.52 7.62 90 7.50 51.68 54.86 12 propagations which can be classified as simultaneous, south–north 18 341.26 9.89 90 7.50 46.82 41.97 5 (north-propagating) and north–south (south-propagating) rup- 19 326.63 28.87 90 35.00 37.50 37.27 5 tures. We also look into the possibility of significant tsunami at re- 20 351.15 25.45 90 35.00 54.14 43.11 5 mote coastal areas when moderate magnitude earthquakes occur. 21 333.50 30.86 90 35.00 134.88 34.22 12 22 357.94 20.98 90 35.00 53.76 53.11 28 Based on scenario A, sensitivity analysis is carried out for different 23 11.30 24.22 90 35.00 133.84 45.09 28 rupture directions and different scales of slip magnitude (for smal- 24 9.30 18.22 90 35.00 53.29 61.36 28 ler earthquakes). 25 10.90 15.85 90 35.00 53.15 70.96 30 In order to approximate the initial sea surface deformation 26 47.78 12.76 90 35.00 105.90 88.63 40 model in TUNAMI-N2-NUS, the continuous rupture at the Manila 27 30.91 14.73 90 35.00 131.68 75.92 40 28 37.06 16.31 90 35.00 52.41 67.88 35 Trench is discretized by a fitting algorithm using small rectangles 29 24.75 23.79 90 35.00 104.39 44.85 30 (Fig. 2a, Megawati et al., 2009). Each rectangle represents a fault 30 302.02 31.89 90 35.00 51.99 31.66 25 plane as defined in Mansinha and Smylie (1971) and Okada 31 340.64 19.63 90 35.00 103.67 55.05 25 (1985). Slip magnitude is uniform over each fault plane, and the 32 320.54 16.07 90 35.00 77.33 67.83 12 33 326.04 24.96 90 35.00 21.26 41.86 5 fault parameters are given in Table 1. Fig. 2b shows a possible seg- mentation of the continuous rupture where 33 rectangles (or segments) are used. The directivity and rising time are considered 3. Estimation of tsunamigenic sources where the ruptures propagate at a speed of 2 km/s.

In order to assess tsunami threat in the SCS, scenario-based tsu- 4. Tsunami propagation scenarios in the South China Sea nami propagation study from probable geological sources in the region is performed. Due to lack of better information, the assumed 4.1. Tsunami generation by extreme earthquake at the Manila Trench sources are hypothetical and designed to be extreme, hence repre- senting worst case scenarios. The sources are presumably triggered For the tsunami generated by simultaneous rupture of all 33 by undersea earthquakes from thrust zones, trenches and major segments (scenario A), initial sea surface deformation, as well as

Fig. 3. Initial sea surface deformation, maximum wave amplitude and arrival time for the extreme earthquake (scenario A). 70 M.H. Dao et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 36 (2009) 67–73

Fig. 4. Maximum wave height due to the north-propagating rupture (left) as compared with instantaneous rupture (central pane) and the difference between the two scenarios (right).

1.5 1.5 north-south north-south 1 a south-north c south-north simultaneous 1 simultaneous 0.5 z(m) z(m) 0 0.5 -0.5

-1 0 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 t(h) t(h)

2.5 0.4 north-south north-south 2 b south-north 0.3 d south-north 1.5 simultaneous simultaneous 0.2 )

m 1 z(m) z( 0.1 0.5

0 0

-0.5 -0.1 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 t(h) t(h)

Fig. 5. Time-series of wave height at observation points due to different rupture scenarios: (a) Tanshui, (b) Danang, (c) Hongkong and (d) near-Singapore.

Table 2 maps of computed maximum wave amplitude and arrival time are Arrival time and wave height of the first wave peak at observation points along the shown in Fig. 3. The entire rupture zone creates an initial sea sur- SCS coasts for different rupture scenarios A (south-propagating – ns, north-propa- face uplift of above 14 m on the left and a subsidence of 8 m on the gating – sn and simultaneous – sim). right side of the trench. According to the assumed shape of initial Observation points Arrival time of first wave peak Height of first wave peak sea surface deformation, a wave with leading crest propagates (h) (m) through the SCS toward China, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Sin- ns sn sim ns sn sim gapore, while a wave with leading trough heads to eastern sides of Toucheng 1.14 1.27 1.12 2.89 3.09 2.89 Philippines and Taiwan. In this scenario, tsunami immediately hit East-Taiwan 0.85 0.97 0.83 3 2.95 2.95 the western coast of Philippines and southwest part of Taiwan with Manila 1.24 1.12 1.1 0.73 0.59 0.65 the wave height exceeding 14 m. The portion of the fault with larg- East-Philippines 0.8 0.86 0.74 2.4 2.4 2.6 est slip facing southeast coast of China, central coast of Vietnam, KpgJerudong 3.73 3.6 3.6 1 0.8 0.86 Vungtau 6.25 6.27 6.18 1.42 1.25 1.35 and the Paracel Islands may lead to large waves in the areas, up Nhatrang 3.45 3.35 3.35 1.6 1.27 1.41 to 8 m in height. Due to a strong attenuation at shallow the Sunda Haiphong 8.35 8.35 8.25 0.57 0.55 0.56 Shelf, southwest part of the SCS may experience much smaller Haikou 5.83 5.83 5.73 0.64 0.63 0.64 waves, about 1–2 m height; moreover, by the time the tsunami Shantou 3.4 3.4 3.3 1.74 1.91 1.84 reaches Singapore Strait, its height decreases further to less than Macau 5.05 5.1 5 0.91 0.91 0.94 Shanghai 11.95 12 11.9 0.042 0.043 0.043 40 cm. The computed arrival time map shows that tsunami originated from the Manila Trench may reach central coast of Vietnam in just 2 h. Due to shallower waters the waves arrive slightly later slower at the Sunda Shelf, reaching Singapore more than 12 h later at the southeast coast of China (2.5 h) and tsunami considerably after the first shock. M.H. Dao et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 36 (2009) 67–73 71

1.5 2 1.0*slip 1.0*slip 1 0.75*slip 1.5 0.75*slip ac0.5*slip 0.5*slip 0.5 1 z(m) 0 z(m) 0.5 -0.5 0

-1 -0.5 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 t(h) t(h)

1.5 0.4 1.0*slip 1.0*slip 0.75*slip 0.3 d 0.75*slip 1 b 0.5*slip 0.5*slip 0.2 z(m)

z(m) 0.1 0.5 0

0 -0.1 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 t(h) t(h)

Fig. 6. Computed wave height of different slip magnitudes at selected points: (a) Tanshui, (b) Danang, (c) Hongkong and (d) near-Singapore.

Table 3 Arrival time and wave height of the ﬁrst wave peak at observation points along the SCS coasts versus different scales (1.0, 0.75, 0.5 and 0.25) of the slip magnitude of the scenario A rupture.

Observation points Arrival time of ﬁrst wave peak (h) Height of ﬁrst wave peak (m) 1.0 0.75 0.5 0.25 1.0 0.75 0.5 0.25 Toucheng 1.27 1.27 127 1.27 3.09 2.32 1.55 0.79 East-Taiwan 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 2.95 2.22 1.48 0.74 Manila 1.12 1.13 1.15 1.16 0.59 0.45 0.32 0.16 East-Philippines 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 2.4 1.8 1.2 0.6 KpgJerudong 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 0.8 0.62 0.44 0.25 Vungtau 6.27 6.3 6.35 6.35 1.25 1 0.7 0.37 Nhatrang 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.4 1.27 1 0.75 0.44 Haiphong 8.35 8.35 8.4 8.45 0.55 0.45 0.35 0.2 Haikou 5.83 5.85 5.9 5.95 0.63 0.52 0.39 0.23 Shantou 3.4 3.45 3.5 3.55 1.91 1.53 1.1 0.65 Macau 5.1 5.16 5.2 5.23 0.91 0.71 0.51 0.32 Shanghai 12 12.05 12.08 12.15 0.043 0.037 0.029 0.018

Beside the simultaneous rupture of all 33 segments in scenario 4.2. Moderate earthquake scenarios along the Manila Trench A, two other cases are considered with the rupture propagating at a constant speed of 2 km/s from north to south and from south to Tsunami generated in scenarios A are considered to be the north of the Manila Trench. In the discrete model the rupture prop- worst case. However, it is more probable for the subduction zone agation is simulated by a consequent triggering the constituent to break at lower slip magnitudes, for instance 25%, 50% and 75% fault segments with a respective delay, and the resultant sea sur- of the original values indicated in Fig. 2. Respective simulated wave face deformation due to each constituent fault segment is linearly height at observation points around SCS are shown in Fig. 6 and superimposed onto the current state of the sea surface. Fig. 4 compares computed maximum wave height due to the north-propagating rupture scenario (left pane) and simultaneous one (central pane) with the difference shown on the right. Near the source, the difference between maximum wave height ob- tained with moving and instantaneous rupture scenarios could be up to 5 m, whereas at coasts of Taiwan and Philippines the difference varies between 1 and 4 m. However, at coasts of China and Vietnam the difference is small. Time-series analysis in Fig. 5 and Table 2 compares south-propagating rupture with the above two scenarios at several key-points in the region (see Fig. 1b). Difference in rupture direction is found to have notable effect not only on the maximum wave height, but also on the arrival time. While the maximum wave height differs 0.2–0.3 m at Dan- ang, Nhatrang, Kpg Jerudong, the arrival time may differ as much as 10 min mainly due to delay in rupture of fault segments. At re- mote areas such as Singapore or Shanghai the difference is much smaller. When comparing the potential error due to incorrect estimation of fault rupture speed, it has an order similar to the effects of tide and friction (see Dao and Tkalich (2007)), i.e., considered as Fig. 7. Plot of the ﬁrst wave peak height at observation points in the SCS versus important. different slip magnitude of the rupture scenario A. 72 M.H. Dao et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 36 (2009) 67–73

Fig. 8. Snapshots of tsunami pattern at different instances showing wave refraction and diffraction by the Natuna Islands. Tsunami proﬁles are recorded along numbered transects.

Fig. 9. Tsunami propagation along the transect 1 (upper row) and 2 (lower row).

Table 3. There is just a little change in arrival time between the ex- 6. Conclusions treme earthquake and small ones, which is expected from the established fact that the nonlinear phenomenon is not very prom- The paper studies various tsunami scenarios in South China Sea inent for offshore tsunami (Dao and Tkalich, 2007). This leads also using TUNAMI-N2-NUS model. The worst and moderate tsunamis to almost linear change of wave height according to the scale of the are assumed to be generated from a giant rupture along the Manila slip magnitude, which is observed in Fig. 7. Trench. It is shown that in the worst case scenario tsunami height may reach 14 m near the Philippines and southwest of Taiwan. Part 5. Tsunami propagation at the Sunda Shelf of the fault zone with the largest slip facing southeastern coast of China, central coast of Vietnam, and the Paracel Islands may lead to Hypothetical tsunami generated by extreme earthquake propa- large waves up to 8 m in height. Due to the strong wave attenua- gates from the Manila Trench through open waters of the SCS with tion at shallow continental shelf, southwestern part of the SCS the major wave characteristics being traced all the way up to Thai, would experience waves with heights of 1–2 m and about 40 cm Malaysian and Singapore waters. However, the Natuna Islands may further in Singapore Strait. Tsunami arrival time is expected to cause tsunami wave refraction and diffraction acting as a natural be 2 h at central coast of Vietnam, 2.5 h at the southeast coast of breakwater. As shown in Fig. 8, two tsunami crests are merging be- China and more than 12 h at Singapore region. hind the islands into a single long wave having half of the incident Sensitivity analysis of tsunami parameters on rupture scenarios wave height. Vertical profiles of computed tsunami at different in- is presented. Rupture speed and direction can result in a notable stances of time are depicted along two numbered transects in change in the wave height and arrival time. Sensitivity analysis Fig. 9. The first transect clearly shows development of a single long on slip magnitude shows that the nonlinear phenomenon is not wave behind the Natuna Islands, whereas tsunami length is not af- very prominent for offshore tsunami waves; therefore, one can fected along the second transect. If the assumed tsunami is allowed derive a direct linear function connecting wave height near coastal to move further along the transects, wave height at the east coast zones with the scale of the slip magnitude at source. In Singapore of Malaysia may reach 0.8–1 m, while in Singapore Strait wave Strait tsunami waves are greatly reduced due to a combination of height might be 0.4–0.6 m (see Fig. 3). Significant reduction of two factors, namely attenuation at large shallow continental shelf wave height in Singapore Strait is linked to the shallow waters and refraction–diffraction at the natural ‘‘breakwater” composed of and existence of the Natuna Islands. the Natuna Islands. M.H. Dao et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 36 (2009) 67–73 73

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