Earthquake Scenarios for Greater Metro Manila Area

Earthquake Scenarios for Greater

Metro Manila Area

Megacities at Risk Engineering Resilience to Seismic Hazards 25 April 2019 / Manila Polo Club

Renato U. Solidum, Jr. Undersecretary, Department of Science and Technology Officer-in-charge, Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology The Philippines: A Seismically Active Country

1900-2014 HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKES IN MANILA Manila Cathedral

• “partially destroyed by earthquake of 1600” • “destroyed by the earthquake of 1645” • “destroyed by the earthquake of 3 June 1863” High Exposure of Greater Metro Manila to Earthquake Hazards

POPULATION… CENTER OF

• 12.8 million in 636 sq km for Metro Manila • 25.76 million for Mmla, Bulacan, Rizal,Cavite, Laguna

Source: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), Highlights of the Government Philippine Population 2015 Census of Population, 2016. Business & Finance Commerce

GDP SHARE • Largest share • >1.3 million residential of the country’s buildings, thousands of medium economic output to high rises in Metro Manila (62.9%)

• International and domestic airports LOCATION OF • International and domestic ports NHQ GHQ Police AFP Earthquake Sources for Greater Metro Manila

Active Faults

Valley Fault System Trenches

Manila Trench EARTHQUAKE-RELATED HAZARDS

Fault

Surface Faulting (Ground Rupture) Ground Shaking Liquefaction

Landslide Tsunami Fire EARTHQUAKE MULTI-HAZARD MAP OF GREATER METRO MANILA AREA PRELIMINARY RESULTS Number of Building Use Structures Exposed to Ground Rupture Residential 1,630

Source: Mixed Residential and 1,392

1- Active 3- Land Use – Commercial Fault– RAP, 2013 PHIVOLCS, 2013 Limitations: Commercial 58 2- Population 4- Building -City-level – PSA, 2015 Footprints – assessment NAMRIA, 2011 -Population was Industrial 52 evenly distributed Administrative boundaries are among all structures approximate Institutional 94 prone to ground ruptureFuture improvements: Cultural 24 -Barangay-level assessment -Daytime & nighttime Infrastructure and Utilities 7 scenarios Recreational 6 Total: 3,263 West Valley Fault and Transport Systems

Transects: • Major roads (ex. C5, Ortigas, Marcos Highway) • SLEX

Near SLEX interchange: • Alabang • Susana Ground Shaking (West Valley Fault Earthquake)

(Risk Analysis Project, 2013: PHIVOLCS, GA supported by AusAID)

PAMPANGA PAMPANGA

BULACAN BULACAN

MMla MMla RIZAL RIZAL

CAVITE CAVITE

LAGUNA LAGUNA

M7.2 M6.5 Potential Impact in Metro Manila of a Magnitude 7.2 Earthquake from the West Valley Fault Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (2004, JICA, MMDA, PHIVOLCS)

Building damage:

• 38% residential bldgs.

• 38% of 10-30 story bldgs.

• 30-35% of public bldgs. • 14% of 30-60 story bldgs.

Human loss:

• 33,500 dead

• 114,000 seriously injured • 18,000 fire casualties Building Damage & Casualty Estimates FOR METRO MANILA FROM A WEST VALLEY FAULT EARTHQUAKE

M7.2 M6.5 Total Floor Area in Complete 88,142,000 65,407,000 to Collapsed Damage (sqm)

Total Floor Area in Slight 172,924,000 162,799,000 to Extensive Damage (sqm)

Total Fatalities (Death) 31,000 23,000

Total Injuries Slight to very Serious 511,000 397,000

Total Losses (millions of PhP) 2,269,000 1,773,000 from building damage

Risk Analysis Project, 2013 – PHIVOLCS, UP-ICE, GA (AusAID) Casualty Estimates FOR METRO MANILA AND SURROUNDING PROVINCES FROM A WEST VALLEY FAULT M7.2 EARTHQUAKE

LOCATION FATALITIES VERY SERIOUS INJURY

Metro Manila 34,714 17,782

Bulacan 2,848 1,137

Rizal 3,266 1,640

Cavite 4,128 1,961

Laguna 3,094 1,462

Pampanga 187 50 PHIVOLCS Estimate - 2016 TOTAL 48,237 24,232 PRELIMINARY Total male population Total female population Estimated male population Estimated female population RESULTS exposed to hazard exposed to hazard Limitations: -City-level assessment -Population was Male Female evenly distributed among all structures prone to liquefaction

Future Source: improvements: -Barangay-level 1- Liquefaction 3- Land Use – Hazard – RAP, 2013 assessment PHIVOLCS, -Daytime & nighttime 2014 scenarios 2- Population – 4- Building PSA, 2015 Footprints – NAMRIA, 2011 Administrative boundaries are approximate Building Use Number of Structures Exposed Residential 309,987 Mixed Residential and Commercial 200,238 Commercial 23,175 Industrial 11,207 Institutional 9,446 Cultural 7,153 Infrastructure and Utilities 4,168 Recreational 1,438 Agriculture 1,805 Total: 568,750 TSUNAMI HAZARD MAP OF METRO MANILA

Tsunami Scenario M8.3 Earthquake from Manila Trench

PHIVOLCS, 2013 PRELIMINARY Total male population Total female population Estimated male population Estimated female population RESULTS exposed to hazard exposed to hazard PRELIMINARY RESULTS Limitations: -City-level assessment -Population was evenly City Male Female Total Male Female distributed among all Manila 574,632 592,182 1,166,814 structures prone to Pasay 137,495 139,195 276,690 tsunami

Navotas 126,563 122,746 249,309 Malabon 121,164 119,656 240,820 Future improvements: Paranaque 68,039 71,333 139,372 -Barangay-level assessment Las Pinas 56,312 59,121 115,433 -Daytime & nighttime Source: Caloocan 56,977 56,804 113,781 scenarios 1- Tsunami 3- Land Use – Hazard – RAP, 2013 Valenzuela 50,033 49,008 99,041 PHIVOLCS, 2013 Makati 23,682 26,256 Administrative49,938 2- Population – 4- Building boundaries are Building Use Number of Structures Exposed PSA, 2015 Footprints – Estimated Population 2,451,198approximate NAMRIA, 2011 Residential 169,925 Mixed Residential and Commercial 95,331

Commercial 14,972 Industrial 6,012 Institutional 6,116 Cultural 1,765 Infrastructure and Utilities 3,276

Recreational 658 Agriculture 810 Total: 299,044 Total Number of 766 Schools in NCR

Safe from Tsunami ~571 (75%)

Exposed to Tsunami ~195 (25%)

Distribution of DepEd Schools that are Exposed to Tsunami

Administrative boundaries are approximate

Source: Tsunami Hazard - PHIVOLCS, 2013 Public Elementary and Highschool - DepEd 2015 Total Number of Health 841 Facilities in NCR Safe from Tsunami 584 (69%) Exposed to Tsunami 150 (18%) No Geographic Coordinates or 107 (13%) with Offset Location

Distribution of DOH Health Facilities that are Administrative boundaries are approximate Exposed to Tsunami

Source: Tsunami Hazard - PHIVOLCS, 2013 Health Facilities- DOH, 2018 WE NEED TO BE READY FOR THE BIG ONES