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ZAR: at the Crossroads

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ZAR: at the Crossroads 14 December 2017 ZAR: At the crossroads Natalia Kornela Setlak The ANC will soon elect the party leader, who is likely to take over the presidency once Zuma steps down. The race is set to be very tight between Nkoszana Dlamini-Zuma and Cyril Ramaphosa, where the latter would be more welcomed by the markets. The African National Congress (ANC) Party Congress will take the centre stage and could put an end to the roller-coaster year for the ZAR, with multiple ups and downs mostly prompted by the political climate. The biggest currency move was the eect of firing the well-respected finance minister Pravin Gordhan in the spring as well as the autumn government reshule and budget revisions signalling large fragmentation in the ANC coupled with increased risks of sovereign rating downgrade. At the moment, only Moody’s has kept the South African sovereign rating within in investment grade, but the February review looms. Can the party congress be a game changer for the ZAR? Two contestants in the race to become the leader of ANC This year’s election of the ANC leader is quite extraordinary, as i) the race is set to be tight, and the policies as well as market reaction are likely to dier a lot depending on the final outcome, ii) the ANC is very fragmented, and it is now likely that it could lose the absolute majority in the upcoming election, which calls for unity behind the newly chosen leader. The market favourite is deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa, who is the leader of the market-friendly faction of the ANC and the opponent of current president, Jacob Zuma. The election of Ramaphosa would be good news for markets and the ZAR, which is likely to strengthen in the aftermath of a positive change of leadership. Ramaphosa won the election for deputy president post at the previous ANC Party Congress in 2012, where he succeeded in securing more support than for example Nkoszana Dlamini-Zuma, Jacob Zuma’s ex-wife, and Baleka Mbete. However, Ramaphosa is set to battle for the final victory with Dlamini- Zuma this time around as well. Zuma’s ex-wife is seen as a part of the corruption-plagued share of the party trying to push for the “radical economic transformation”, which consists of non-market-friendly ideas centred around populism and increased participation of the black people in the overall economy. Overall, choosing Dlamini-Zuma as the ANC leader would by large imply policy continuation, which will not be welcomed by the markets awaiting brighter times in South African politics. The race is set to be tight and its final outcome will be the key for the rand The race between Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma is set to be tight and remains too close to call a victory for anyone before the final vote is cast. Even though the candidates have some provinces, where they have already secured a clear majority, such as Eastern Cape, Gauteng and Western Cape for Ramaphosa e-markets.nordea.com/article/41863/zar-at-the-crossroads and North West and Free State for Dlamini-Zuma, Mpumalanga remains the wild card in the overall race. Mpumalanga, which is the second largest province to vote this time, is likely to stand united behind its leader, David Mabuza, who has been calling for unity in voting, but did not indicate a preferred candidate. We see the following two scenarios materializing following the election of the ANC leader, which is likely to take place on Sunday, 17th December: Ramaphosa is elected leader (60%): In the short-term, the market reaction should be neutral to positive, as markets are counting on this outcome -- likely one of the reasons behind the recent ZAR appreciation despite S&P’s November downgrade. Over a longer horizon, we could expect the economic policies to become more market-friendly and increased focus on fighting o corruption to be enforced. We continue to see some ZAR weakness in the near-term due to Moody’s sovereign rating review set to take place in February, where a possible downgrade to “junk” is likely to be a big setback for the rand, which is why despite the initial positive reaction, we still expect USD/ZAR to reach higher towards 14.75. The SARB would continue its easing cycle in H2 2018, provided that inflation remains around the target and the rand holds steady at that time. Dlamini-Zuma secures the ANC leadership (40%): Election of Dlamini-Zuma will be an unfavourable outcome for the markets, likely prolonging the Zuma-reign with a similar policy agenda as the current one and also increasing chances of Zuma getting cleared once again of corruption charges in January. The rand is likely to weaken towards USD/ZAR 14.25 straight after the election if the outcome materializes. On top of that, Moody’s sovereign rating downgrade will become even more likely under Dlamini-Zuma, as that would also imply overall policy continuity in the longer run. Thereby, we could expect USD/ZAR to reach above the current forecast standing at 14.75 in the run-up to the rating review announcement. Chart 1. USD/ZAR forecast e-markets.nordea.com/article/41863/zar-at-the-crossroads The final outcome of the race between Dlamini-Zuma and Ramaphosa will be key for the markets, as it will clearly signal where the country is heading. The situation remains even more complicated due to the organizational changes in the ANC, where adding a second deputy president creates the possibility of promising a high post to a person, whose stance in the race can change the final outcome, such as for example David Mabuza. Moreover, the reigning President Jacob Zuma is determined to do his best to secure the majority of votes to his former wife, as his position in the country is also at stake here. According to Jackson Mthembu, Ramaphosa should recall Zuma from the post if he is elected leader of the ANC. Meanwhile, Ramaphosa himself has called for unity behind the leader chosen at the party congress, regardless of the outcome. High fragmentation of the ANC might either come to an end or actually deepen following the event, depending on whether the ANC will be able to stand united behind the new leader, who is most likely to become the next South African president after Jacob Zuma in the presidential election in 2019. Natalia Kornela Setlak Graduate [email protected] e-markets.nordea.com/article/41863/zar-at-the-crossroads 25.7.2017 1 Nordea Markets is the commercial name for Nordea’s international capital markets operation. The information provided herein is intended for background information only and for the sole use of the intended recipient. The views and other information provided herein are the current views of Nordea Markets as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. This notice is not an exhaustive description of the described product or the risks related to it, and it should not be relied on as such, nor is it a substitute for the judgement of the recipient. The information provided herein is not intended to constitute and does not constitute investment advice nor is the information intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The information contained herein has no regard to the specific investment objectives, the financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. Relevant and specific professional advice should always be obtained before making any investment or credit decision. It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Nordea Markets is not and does not purport to be an adviser as to legal, taxation, accounting or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without the prior written consent from Nordea Markets. Nordea Bank AB Hamngatan 10 SE-105 71 Stockholm www.nordea.com .
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