Danish Foreign Policy Review 2018
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Danish Foreign Policy Review 2018 Edited by Kristian Fischer and Hans Mouritzen DIIS · DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Danish Foreign Policy Review 2018 Edited by Kristian Fischer and Hans Mouritzen DIIS · DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES © Copenhagen 2018 DIIS · Danish Institute for International Studies Østbanegade 117, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark Tel: +45 32 69 87 87 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.diis.dk Editors: Kristian Fischer ([email protected]) and Hans Mouritzen ([email protected]) Managing editor: Anna Pia Hudtloff Editorial Advisory Board Clive Archer, Manchester Metropolitan University Hans Branner, retired Eric Einhorn, University of Massachusetts Dan Hamilton, Paul Nitze School of Advanced International Studies Christine Ingebritsen, University of Washington, Seattle Tonny Brems Knudsen, University of Aarhus Henrik Larsen, University of Copenhagen Sverre Lodgaard, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Ove Kai Pedersen, Copenhagen Business School Sten Rynning, University of Southern Denmark Helle Rytkønen, Danish Institute for Study Abroad Bengt Sundelius, University of Uppsala Ben Tonra, University College Dublin Linguistic Consultant: Jessica Lerche Graphic design: Mark Gry Christiansen Printed in Denmark by Tarm Bogtryk a/s ISBN (print): 978-87-7605-918-7 ISBN (pdf): 978-87-7605-919-4 ISSN: 1397-2480 DIIS publications can be downloaded free of charge or ordered from www.diis.dk The full text of this book can also be found electronically in EBSCO Publishing’s databases. Contents Preface 5 Chapter 1: Abstracts in English and Danish 7 Chapter 2: Official articles 13 The international situation and Danish foreign policy in 2017 14 Anders Samuelsen, Minister of Foreign Affairs The role of Denmark in a more complex security environment 32 Claus Hjort Frederiksen, Minister of Defence Chapter 3: Academic articles 45 Coping with Russia: past failures, future prospects, and implications for the Baltic Sea region 46 Michael Staack Theorising post-Cold War Danish foreign policy: the expansion from one dominant to seven distinct approaches 77 Henrik Larsen Arctic organisations are nations’ special darlings. But who’s whose? 115 Hans Mouritzen The transformation of Danish foreign aid 138 Lars Engberg-Pedersen & Adam Moe Fejerskov Chapter 4: Selected bibliography 163 3 DANISH FOREIGN POLICY REVIEW 2018 REVIEW POLICY FOREIGN DANISH 4 Preface Danish Foreign Policy Review 2018 addresses Danish foreign policy globally, regionally and domestically. It represents a continuation of Danish Foreign Pol- icy Yearbook that has been published annually since 1997. It is slimmer this year since we have omitted the Selected Documents, Danish Foreign Policy in Figures and Opinion Polls, because these are easily available elsewhere. We have retained the bibliography providing a selection of scholarly books, articles and chapters about Danish foreign policy published in English in 2017. More- over, in addition to the articles by Denmark’s foreign and defence ministers, this Review includes four academic articles, externally peer reviewed, whose authors represent only their own expertise (for details of each author, see the respective articles). Abstracts of these articles in English and Danish can be found at the front of this volume. According to Michael Staack, relations between the West and Russia are at their worst since the early 1980s, and inadvertent military escalation has be- come a real risk also involving Denmark. His essay presents a number of pro- posals that could alleviate the tension in the Baltic Sea area. Henrik Larsen’s contribution presents the theories or theoretical approaches that have actually been used in studies of post-Cold War Danish foreign policy. A proliferation of approaches has taken place. It is shown that interpretations of events and developments differ according to the theoretical ‘glasses’ worn. 5 Arctic international organisations often function as the instrument – and thus the ‘darling’ – of one particular government. Moreover, various national vest- ed interests are being served by these organisations, including dependency spreading by smaller states. The essay by Hans Mouritzen also outlines some recommendations as to how Denmark should navigate in the Arctic organisa- tional wilderness. Lars Engberg-Pedersen and Adam Moe Fejerskov analyse the major shifts in Danish development cooperation over the past decade and argue that they reflect short-term domestic political concerns rather than a strategic response DANISH FOREIGN POLICY REVIEW 2018 REVIEW POLICY FOREIGN DANISH to global changes. Danish Foreign Policy Review 2018 has been edited by director Kristian Fischer and dr.scient.pol. Hans Mouritzen, whereas stud.mag. Emilie Sort Mikkelsen has served as the assistant editor. The editors, DIIS, Copenhagen June 2018 6 Chapter 1 Abstracts in English and Danish This chapter includes abstracts of the academic articles in English and Danish. 7 Coping with Russia: past failures, future prospects, and implications for the Baltic Sea region Michael Staack The Ukraine conflict marks a structural break in relations between Russia and the West. Relations are currently at their worst since the early 1980s and in- advertent military escalation has become an even more likely scenario than at that time. Denmark’s security is directly affected by these developments. The essay discusses the two main problems that led to the break in the partner- DANISH FOREIGN POLICY REVIEW 2018 REVIEW POLICY FOREIGN DANISH ship, namely the organisation of international order in a multipolar world and the integration and security dilemma in Europe. It then goes on to address German policy, which plays a key role in this conflict, and the security constel- lation in the Baltic Sea region. The essay concludes by presenting proposals that could be suitable for achieving a new normality beyond managing the an- tagonism. At the same time, it is important to keep in mind that the persistent volatility of the international environment could further complicate this already difficult process. Ukraine-konflikten markerer et afgørende brud i relationerne mellem Rusland og Vesten. De er i dag de køligste siden de tidlige 1980ere. Utilsigtet militær eska- lation er blevet et mere sandsynligt scenarie end dengang. Danmarks sikkerhed er direkte påvirket af disse udviklinger. Dette essay diskuterer de to hovedprob- lemer, som førte til sammenbruddet af partnerskabet, nemlig organiseringen af den internationale orden for en multipolær verden og integrationen og sikker- hedsdilemmaet i Europa. Essayet går så videre til at beskæftige sig med den tyske politik, som spiller en nøglerolle i konflikten og sikkerhedskonstellationen i Østersø-regionen. Til sidst præsenteres forslag som ville være velegnede til at realisere en ’ny normal’, der rækker ud over administrationen af de nuværen- de modsætninger. Samtidig er det vigtigt at huske, at den vedvarende uforuds- igelighed af de internationale omgivelser yderligere kan komplicere den i forve- jen vanskelige proces. 8 ABSTRACTS IN ENGLISH AND DANISH AND ENGLISH IN ABSTRACTS Theorising post-Cold War Danish foreign policy: the expansion from one dominant to seven distinct approaches Henrik Larsen The number of theoretical approaches used to study Danish foreign policy has multiplied since the Cold War period when just one approach – adaptation theory – was dominant. This article aims to outline the main theoretical ap- proaches after the Cold War. The existence of several approaches is important because the different theories provide different views of what the important elements in Danish foreign policy are. The article shows that the view of signif- icant elements in Danish foreign policy – and what are judged to be significant elements in Danish foreign policy – differs quite considerably according to the theoretical approach drawn on. It presents seven approaches: 1) adaptation theory, 2) constellation theory, 3) Denmark as a smart state, 4) lessons and tra- ditions, 5) discourse analysis, 6) Denmark as a semi-integrated foreign policy actor with the EU, and 7) Denmark as a competition state. Antallet af teoretiske tilgange til studiet af dansk udenrigspolitik er stærkt forøget efter afslutningen af den kolde krig, da én tilgang – adaptationsteorien – var dominerende. Formålet med denne artikel er at skitsere de teoretiske til- gange, der er blevet anvendt i studiet af dansk udenrigspolitik efter den kolde krig. Anvendelsen af flere forskellige teorier har væsentlige konsekvenser, fordi de forskellige teorier giver forskellige bud på, hvad der er vigtige elementer at studere i dansk udenrigspolitik. Artiklen viser, at synet på væsentlige elementer i dansk udenrigspolitik – og hvad der vurderes som væsentlige elementer – i høj grad afhænger af den teoretiske tilgang, som anvendes. Artiklen præsenterer syv teoretiske tilgange til studiet af dansk udenrigspolitik: 1) Adaptationstilgan- gen, 2) Konstellationsteori, 3) Danmark som smartstat, 4) Lektier og traditioner, 5) Diskursanalyse, 6) Danmark som del af EU’s udenrigspolitik 7) Danmark som konkurrencestat. 9 Arctic organisations are nations’ special darlings. But who’s whose? Hans Mouritzen Arctic governmental organisations do not hold much leverage in relation to their member governments. However, what makes the organisations worthy of study is the arena that they provide for the interplay of governments and their national interests. It is argued in this essay that the organisations/co- operations often function as an instrument – and