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Status of Planetary Defense Lindley Johnson NASA’s Planetary Defense Officer [email protected] Planetary Defense Coordination Office Planetary Science Division NASA Headquarters Washington, DC Space Portal Lecture Series May 20, 2020 n a s a . g o v / planetarydefense Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) Asteroids and comets with orbits that bring them within one-and-a-third times the distance from the Sun to Earth, or 1.3 astronomical units (blue zone) Earth Orbit Potentially Hazardous Objects • NEOs with orbits that bring them within 4.7 million miles (7.5 million km) of Earth’s orbit (red zone) and Venus Orbit • Size that could do regional damage should they impact Earth (~500 feet or ~140 meters in size and larger) Mercury Orbit Orbit of Bennu • Potentially hazardous Sun asteroid • Target of NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission New White House Guidance released on 20 June 2018 https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp- content/uploads/2018/06/National-Near- Earth-Object-Preparedness-Strategy-and- Action-Plan-23-pages-1MB.pdf N e a r - Earth Object Observations Program – Interagency and International Partnerships – Mitigation Research National NEO Preparedness Strategy and Action Plan Goals in the New Action Plan • Enhance NEO detection, characterization, and tracking capabilities • Improve modeling, predictions, and information integration • Develop technologies for NEO deflection and disruption • Increase international cooperation on NEO preparation • Establish NEO impact emergency procedures and action protocols N e a r - Earth Object Observations Program – Interagency and International Partnerships – Mitigation Research PUBLIC INTEREST IN PDCO NASA Science Live and PLANETARY DEFENSE NASA Asteroid Watch Twitter Metrics • PDCO NASA Science Live episode premiered Monday, 4/27/2020 • Episode metrics similar to Agency L-1 activities such as mission launches and landings • YouTube video received 2,473% more views than usual in first 72 hours (average is 34K – 62K views in this timeframe) • YouTube Total Views: 1.2 million • Peak Live Viewers: 11K • Comments: 3K • Facebook Total Views: 546K • Peak Live Viewers: 11K • Post Reach: 2.2 million • Periscope Peak Live Views: 40K • NASA’s Asteroid Watch twitter normally receives between https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiS8EPOL488&feature=youtu.be 100-200k impressions per month • Impressions for April: 5.51 million • New Followers: 12.5k Planetary Defense Coordination Office The Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) was established in January 2016 at NASA HQ to manage planetary defense related activities across NASA, and coordinate with both U.S. interagency and international efforts to study and plan response to the asteroid impact hazard. Mission Statement Lead national and international efforts to: • Detect any potential for significant impact of planet Earth by natural objects • Appraise the range of potential effects by any possible impact • Develop strategies to mitigate impact effects on human welfare N e a r - Earth Object Observations Program – Interagency and International Partnerships – Mitigation Research 7 NASA’s NEO Search Program (Current Survey Systems) NEOWISE JPL 0.4 m Sun-synch LEO ATLAS Catalina Sky Pan-STARRS LINEAR/SST Survey U of HI MIT/LL 0.5 m Haleakala, Maui 1.5 m U of AZ 1.8 m U of HI Moving to 0.5 m Mauna Loa, HI 0.7 m Arizona 1.8 m Haleakala, Maui 3.5 m Australia N e a r - Earth Object Observations Program – Interagency and International Partnerships – Mitigation Research Signatories to the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) iawn.net European Southern China National Northolt Branch Zwicky Višnjan Observatory Observatory Space Administration Observatories (UK) Transient (Croatia) Facility (US) National Institute of Astrophysics, Optics & Electronics (México) Korean Astronomy Space Science Institute (KASI) University of Nariño Inst. of Solar- Sormano Astronomical Colombia Terrestrial Physics Observatory (Italy) (Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences) Crimean European Institute of Astronomy, Astrophysical Observatory National Aeronautics and SONEAR Observatory Russian Academy of Space (Brazil) (Russian Academy of Sciences) Space Administration Sciences (ИНАСАН) Agency Special Follow-up Observers Astrophysical Peter Birtwhistle (UK) Observatory (Russian David Balam (Canada) 9 Academy of Patrick Wiggins (USA) Sciences) Kourovka Astronomical Observatory (UrFU ) Currently 20 signatories n a s a . g o v / planetarydefense http://minorplanetcenter.net/ • Receives positional measurement of small bodies from observations made all over the world (and beyond) • Responsible for identification, designation and initial orbit computation • Now operating under the Planetary Data System’s Small Bodies Node https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/ • Computes high-precision orbits of near-Earth objects • Performs long-term analyses of possible future orbits of hazardous asteroids (Sentry) and computes orbits for new potential asteroid discoveries to determine any impact hazard (Scout) • Predicts the impact time, location and geometry in the event of a predicted impact N e a r - Earth Object Observations Program – Interagency and International Partnerships – Mitigation Research NASA’s search started George E Brown in 1998 NEO Survey Goal *Potentially Hazardous Asteroids come within 7.5 million km of Earth orbit n a s a . g o v / planetarydefense All Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) n a s a . g o v / planetarydefense NEAs 140 Meters and Larger George E Brown NEO Survey Goal n a s a . g o v / planetarydefense Progress: 140 Meters and Larger Total Population estimated to be ~25,000 George E Brown NEO Survey Goal At current discovery rate, it will take more than 30 years to complete the survey. n a s a . g o v / planetarydefense National Academies Study (2019) • Since 2013, the NEO Wide-field Infrared Explorer (NEOWISE) has assisted NASA’s efforts to identify and characterize populations of near-Earth asteroids and comets • NASA’s Chief Scientist requested the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) evaluate the relative advantages and disadvantages of infrared and visible observations of NEOs • The NASEM report was issued in June 2019 • One key finding was that a “space-based mid-infrared telescope designed for discovering NEOs and operating in conjunction with currently existing and anticipated ground-based, visible telescopes is the most effective option for meeting the George E. Brown Act completeness and size determination requirements in a timely fashion” 15 16 NEO Surveillance Mission Concept NEO Surveyor Space-based IR Objectives: Observatory • Find 65% of undiscovered Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) >140 m in 5 years (goal: 90% in 10 years) • Estimate sizes directly from IR signatures • Compute cumulative chance of impact over next century for PHAs >50 m and comets • Deliver new tracklet data daily to the Minor Planet Center Apophis Close Approach • Apophis will reach its point of Predicted Close Approach of closest approach to Earth on 2004 MN4 “Apophis” April 13th, 2029, at 2146 UTC. (an ~340m Object) on April 13, 2029 • At closest approach, Apophis will pass ~31,000 km above CLOSE-UP VIEW Earth’s surface (~4,500 km closer to Earth than geo- synchronous orbit altitude, but well above the orbit plane) • It will be visible to the human eye. Best view from “The Med” • About about 16 hrs 45 mins later, Apophis will pass within about 96,000 km of the Moon Geosynchronous Orbit https://publish.twitter.com/?qu ery=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.co m%2FJimBridenstine%2Fstatus Four other known PHOs of significant size %2F1257669052085960705&wi will pass within lunar orbit this century dget=Tweet 77 Detected Close Approaches <1 Lunar Distance in 2019 Up to 24 larger than 20m. Up to 2 larger than 100m. CA Distance Nominal CA Distance Nominal Object Close-Approach (CA) Date Estimated Diameter Object Close-Approach (CA) Date Estimated Diameter (LD | au) (LD | au) (2019 AS5) 2019-Jan-08 00:37 ± < 00:01 0.04 | 0.00010 0.92 m - 2.1 m (2019 QR8) 2019-Aug-26 08:51 ± 01:08 0.80 | 0.00207 6.6 m - 15 m (2019 AE9) 2019-Jan-12 11:09 ± < 00:01 0.26 | 0.00067 9.9 m - 22 m (2019 QQ3) 2019-Aug-26 15:14 ± 00:01 0.25 | 0.00064 3.7 m - 8.2 m (2019 BO) 2019-Jan-16 01:13 ± < 00:01 0.18 | 0.00046 6.3 m - 14 m (2019 RQ) 2019-Sep-02 16:45 ± < 00:01 0.29 | 0.00074 2.1 m - 4.6 m (2019 BV1) 2019-Jan-24 20:53 ± < 00:01 0.35 | 0.00090 4.9 m - 11 m (2019 RP1) 2019-Sep-05 22:04 ± < 00:01 0.10 | 0.00025 7.3 m - 16 m (2019 BZ3) 2019-Jan-27 23:29 ± < 00:01 0.13 | 0.00032 4.8 m - 11 m (2019 RC1) 2019-Sep-07 10:48 ± < 00:01 0.48 | 0.00123 4.6 m - 10 m (2019 CN5) 2019-Feb-11 07:23 ± 00:03 0.31 | 0.00079 7.3 m - 16 m (2019 SJ) 2019-Sep-16 18:56 ± < 00:01 0.64 | 0.00163 8.3 m - 19 m (2019 SU2) 2019-Sep-21 02:48 ± 00:01 0.19 | 0.00048 2.6 m - 5.8 m (2019 DG2) 2019-Feb-26 07:39 ± 00:24 0.61 | 0.00158 5.4 m - 12 m (2019 SD1) 2019-Sep-21 06:46 ± < 00:01 0.73 | 0.00187 5.5 m - 12 m (2019 DF) 2019-Feb-26 21:11 ± 00:09 0.45 | 0.00116 2.9 m - 6.5 m (2019 SS2) 2019-Sep-21 07:12 ± 00:02 0.30 | 0.00077 2.0 m - 4.4 m (2019 EH1) 2019-Mar-01 17:38 ± < 00:01 0.06 | 0.00016 2.5 m - 5.7 m (2019 SS3) 2019-Sep-22 22:48 ± 00:21 0.73 | 0.00188 15 m - 34 m (2019 EN2) 2019-Mar-13 23:38 ± < 00:01 0.86 | 0.00221 8.0 m - 18 m (2019 SX8) 2019-Sep-28 07:50 ± < 00:01 0.99 | 0.00255 4.3 m - 9.7 m (2019 FA) 2019-Mar-16 01:14 ± < 00:01 0.60 | 0.00154 4.8 m - 11 m (2019 TE) 2019-Sep-28 20:31 ± 01:31 0.93 | 0.00238 6.8 m - 15 m (2019 EA2) 2019-Mar-22 01:53 ± < 00:01 0.80 | 0.00205 18 m - 41 m (2019 TD) 2019-Sep-29 18:49 ± 00:01 0.34 | 0.00087
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  • An Early Warning System for Asteroid Impact

    An Early Warning System for Asteroid Impact

    An Early Warning System for Asteroid Impact John L. Tonry(1) ABSTRACT Earth is bombarded by meteors, occasionally by one large enough to cause a significant explosion and possible loss of life. It is not possible to detect all hazardous asteroids, and the efforts to detect them years before they strike are only advancing slowly. Similarly, ideas for mitigation of the danger from an impact by moving the asteroid are in their infancy. Although the odds of a deadly asteroid strike in the next century are low, the most likely impact is by a relatively small asteroid, and we suggest that the best mitigation strategy in the near term is simply to move people out of the way. With enough warning, a small asteroid impact should not cause loss of life, and even portable property might be preserved. We describe an \early warning" system that could provide a week's notice of most sizeable asteroids or comets on track to hit the Earth. This may be all the mitigation needed or desired for small asteroids, and it can be implemented immediately for relatively low cost. This system, dubbed \Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System" (AT- LAS), comprises two observatories separated by about 100 km that simulta- neously scan the visible sky twice a night. Software automatically registers a comparison with the unchanging sky and identifies everything which has moved or changed. Communications between the observatories lock down the orbits of anything approaching the Earth, within one night if its arrival is less than a week. The sensitivity of the system permits detection of 140 m asteroids (100 Mton impact energy) three weeks before impact, and 50 m asteroids a week be- fore arrival.
  • Neofixer a Broker for Near Earth Asteroid Follow-Up Rob Seaman & Eric Christensen Catalina Sky Survey

    Neofixer a Broker for Near Earth Asteroid Follow-Up Rob Seaman & Eric Christensen Catalina Sky Survey

    NEOFIXER A BROKER FOR NEAR EARTH ASTEROID FOLLOW-UP ROB SEAMAN & ERIC CHRISTENSEN CATALINA SKY SURVEY Building the Infrastructure for Time-Domain Alert Science in the LSST Era • May 22-25, 2017 • Tucson CATALINA SKY SURVEY • LPL runs 2 NEO projects, CSS and SpacewatcH • Talk to Eric or me about CSS, Bob McMillan for SW • CSS demo at 3:30 pm CONGRESSIONAL MANDATE • Spaceguard goal: 1 km Near EartH Objects ✔ • George E Brown Act to find > 140m (H < 22) NEOs • 90% complete by 2020 ✘ (2017: ~ 30%) • ROSES 2017 language is > 100m • Chelyabinsk was ~20m (H ~ 25.8) or ~400 kiloton (few per century likeliHood) SUMMARY • Near EartH Asteroid inventory is “retail Big Data” • NEOfixer will be NEO-optimized targeting broker • No one broker will address all use cases • Will benefit LSST as well as current surveys • LSST not tasked to study NEOs, but ratHer tHe Solar System (slower objects and fartHer away) • What is tHe most valuable NEO observation a particular telescope can make at a particular time? CHESLEY & VERES (1705.06209) • 55 ± 5.0% for LSST baseline operating alone • But 42% of NEOs witH H < 22 will be discovered before 2022 • And witHout LSST, current surveys would discover 61% of the catalog by 2032 • Completion CH<22 will be 77% combined LSST will add 16% to CH<22 Can targeted follow-up increase this? CHESLEY & VERES (CAVEATS) • Lots of details worth reading • CH<22 degrades by ~1.8% for every 0.1 mag loss in sensitivity • Issues of linking efficiency including: • Efficiency down to H < 25 is lower • 4% false MBA-MBA links ASTROMETRIC