Georgia State University ScholarWorks @ Georgia State University Gerontology Theses Gerontology Institute 7-21-2008 African American Longevity Advantage: Myth or Reality? A Racial Comparison of Supercentenarian Data Robert Douglas Young Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.gsu.edu/gerontology_theses Part of the Sociology Commons Recommended Citation Young, Robert Douglas, "African American Longevity Advantage: Myth or Reality? A Racial Comparison of Supercentenarian Data." Thesis, Georgia State University, 2008. https://scholarworks.gsu.edu/gerontology_theses/10 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Gerontology Institute at ScholarWorks @ Georgia State University. It has been accepted for inclusion in Gerontology Theses by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks @ Georgia State University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. AFRICAN AMERICAN LONGEVITY ADVANTAGE: MYTH OR REALITY? A RACIAL COMPARISON OF SUPERCENTENARIAN DATA by ROBERT YOUNG Under the Direction of Frank J. Whittington ABSTRACT Demographic researchers have identified a crossover pattern between the mortality rates of the Caucasian-American and African-American oldest-old (80+) populations for over a century. Debate has centered on whether the crossover effect is due to age misreporting or the heterogeneity hypothesis or if it continues beyond age 99. This thesis addresses these issues by using new data from the SSA‘s study of supercentenarians. The study identified 355 persons aged 110 or older whose ages could be verified, creating the first reliable American dataset for this population group. Analysis of the data has indicated that mortality rates at ages 110-115 were significantly lower for African-American supercentenarians than for their Caucasian- American counterparts, and that the African-American proportion of the population increased steadily with age. The results of this analysis show that the crossover phenomenon is multicausal and cannot be fully accounted for by age misreporting, suggesting a need to consider genetic and environmental impacts on racial variations in maximum human longevity. INDEX WORDS: Supercentenarians, African-Americans, Longevity, Maximum Life Span, Crossover Effect, Oldest-Old, Gerontology, Demography, Race, Myth AFRICAN AMERICAN LONGEVITY ADVANTAGE: MYTH OR REALITY? A RACIAL COMPARISON OF SUPERCENTENARIAN DATA by ROBERT YOUNG A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts in the College of Arts and Sciences Georgia State University 2008 Copyright by Robert Douglas Young 2008 AFRICAN AMERICAN LONGEVITY ADVANTAGE: MYTH OR REALITY? A RACIAL COMPARISON OF SUPERCENTENARIAN DATA by ROBERT YOUNG Committee Chair: Frank J. Whittington Committee: Elisabeth O. Burgess Toshi Kii Electronic Version Approved: Office of Graduate Studies College of Arts and Sciences Georgia State University August 2008 Figure 1. Bettie Wilson, age 114, seen in New Albany, Mississippi Photo courtesy of Memphis Commercial Appeal iv DEDICATION I would like to dedicate this thesis to my French-born great-great aunt, Marie Ralston (June 14 1893-June 10 1990), whose longevity (she lived to the age of 96 years, 361 days) and late-life activity (she participated in a ―rock-a-thon‖ 1 in 1989) inspired me to a career in longevity research; to Jeanne Calment of Arles, France (Feb 21 1875-Aug 4 1997), the doyenne de humanité who not only defied astronomical odds2 to live to 122 years of age (surpassing the Biblical 120 years of Moses) but who personally could always find a reason to enjoy life, even beyond 115 years of age (―I think, I dream, I go over my life, I never get bored‖); to Bettie Wilson (1890-2006) of New Albany, Mississippi and Susie Gibson (1890-2006) of Tuscumbia, Alabama, whose families graciously allowed me to interview them for Oral History class in 2004, providing a qualitative research window into how to successfully live to 115 years of age; and to all the longevity researchers— past, present, and future—who defied the prevailing myths of longevity in their era and dedicated themselves to the search for the truth regarding the maximum human life span, to answer the question ―how long do humans live?‖ according to scientific precepts, and not the biases that have so permeated past discourse and continue to exist even in this modern-day world. To them, this paper is dedicated. I intend to continue in the traditions of William Johns Thoms, Thomas Emley Young, Walter G. Bowerman, and the like. 1 This was a rocking-chair-rocking event. My great-great-aunt, affectionately known as ―Tantine,‖ was featured in the local Fort Lauderdale newspaper in 1989 (SIT-DOWN EVENT FEATURES SENIORS ROCKING IN CHAIRS, Diane Lade, Staff Writer; Sun Sentinel; Oct 19, 1989; p. 6), age 96, for having rocked the chair for 50 consecutive minutes. Each participant had a personal goal, so this was not a record. That she died as a result of an accidental fall also spurred my concern into quality-of-life and eldercare issues for the oldest-old population. 2 With an estimated annual mortality rate of 50% above age 110 and figuring the chances of reaching age 115 to be one in two billion; the odds of surviving to age 122 would be one in 40 billion. However, the survivor-curve hypothesis holds that once a remaining population reaches a very small sample (less than 30), mortality rates decelerate, meaning that such an estimate may be a little overstated. However, it gives some idea of just how rare a true 122-year-old is. Put another way, using a 50% annual mortality rate, someone on their 110th birthday has a 1 in 4,096 chance of reaching age 122. Yet Jeanne Calment lived another 164 days, so the chance of making it to 122.45 years is approximately 1 in 5939 persons. v While realizing that further refinement and improvement of our maximum life span model is still needed, I hope this thesis serves as an inspiration for the next generation, who face the newfound challenge of fighting the myths of longevity which have found new life in recent years via the internet. Thus I dedicate this work to those whose past research has laid the foundations for this study, and to those whose future work may expand research into this area further than what is presented here. vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge the hard work and dedication shown by those who have had a part in not only this thesis but in my career. The following persons have seen in me a promise, and I hope to fulfill their faith and trust, that it was not based on blind faith but on an early recognition that I had potential. Some saw a raw talent: they believed I had the ability to do more, but was in need of mentorship and guidance. Without their belief in me I would not have believed in myself either, or have become the person I am today—someone whom the media trusts to turn to as an ―expert‖ in the niche field of supercentenarians and age validation research. I have been quoted by over 1,000 newspapers on five continents (including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Tokyo Times), as well as major international media outlets such as CNN and the BBC and currently hold the position of Senior Consultant for Gerontology for Guinness World Records (since 2005). Truly, for me this has been a dream come true. But this dream took twenty years to become a reality. To Dr. Leonard Poon, whose early work with centenarians and supercentenarians at the Georgia Centenarian Study in 1988 served to inspire and show me that there was more to the field of extreme longevity than simple newspaper mentions of 111th birthdays and lots of candles on a cake; To Dr. L. Stephen Coles, whose Gerontology Research Group has, since 1998, served as an outlet for disseminating factual information about the human lifespan and supercentenarians, and who has since 1999 posted on the GRG website my work on supercentenarians, while entrusting me to be the Senior Claims Researcher for the Gerontology Research Group‘s list of the world‘s oldest people; vii To Dr. James Vaupel, whose year 2000 invitation to his inaugural Supercentenarian Workshop at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany served to move me from a national to an international career path; To Dr. Bernard Jeune, who early on in my career took an interest in my supercentenarian lists and who sent me two books, the Validation of Exceptional Longevity (1999) and Exceptional Longevity from Prehistory to Present (1995), which focused and increased my understanding of the validation process and the history of extreme longevity research; To Dr. Jean-Marie Robine, the validator of the Jeanne Calment case and one of the founding forces behind the International Database on Longevity, who early-on recognized the need to combine national supercentenarian data into an international database, and whose early work with me [in 2000, we worked to see that Marie Bremont of France (1886-2001) was accepted as the world‘s oldest person by Guinness World Records] also helped me to establish myself in my current position as the Senior Consultant for Gerontology for Guinness World Records; To Dr. Tom Perls, who in 2001 invited me to my first Gerontological Society of America conference, whose early faith in me led to my first published journal article in 2006, and who chose me to be a researcher for the newly-formed New England Supercentenarian Study in 2006; To Dr. Bert Kestenbaum and Renee Ferguson of the Social Security Administration, who chose me to help work on the SSA‘s first-ever study of supercentenarians, and who since 2001 have entrusted me with the entire research set of the SSA‘s study on supercentenarians, without which this thesis would not have been possible; To Mary Mackinnon, whose sweet personality and consideration for others overlays a strong-willed commitment to mentoring and thus ensured me a smooth transition into the viii Gerontology Institute at Georgia State University in 2005, without which this thesis might not have occurred; To Dr.