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Monthly Bulletin September 2005

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Monthly Bulletin September 2005 EN 2005 I 0112005 MONTHLY BULLETIN 0212005 SEPTEMBER 0312005 MONTHLY BULLETINMONTHLY 04 09 12005 0512005 0612005 0712005 0812005 0912005 1012005 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK EUROPEAN 1112005 1212005 MONTHLY BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 2005 In 2005 all ECB publications will feature a motif taken from the €50 banknote. © European Central Bank, 2005 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Website http://www.ecb.int Fax +49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d This Bulletin was produced under the responsibility of the Executive Board of the ECB. Translations are prepared and published by the national central banks. All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The cut-off date for the statistics included in this issue was 31 August 2005. ISSN 1561-0136 (print) ISSN 1725-2822 (online) CONTENTS EDITORIAL 5 ECONOMIC AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS 7 The external environment of the euro area 7 Monetary and financial developments 13 Prices and costs 46 Output, demand and the labour market 53 Fiscal developments 64 Exchange rate and balance of payments developments 68 Boxes: 1 The impact of MFI loan securitisation on monetary analysis in the euro area 17 2 Liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations from 11 May to 9 August 2005 26 3 Recent developments in government bond yield spreads in euro area countries 30 4 The cost of equity in the euro area and in the United States 38 5 What can explain the differences in wage growth between market and non-market services? 50 6 Construction developments in the euro area 54 7 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area 61 8 The reform of the renminbi exchange rate regime 70 EURO AREA STATISTICS S1 ANNEXES Chronology of monetary policy measures of the Eurosystem I The TARGET (Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross settlement Express Transfer) system V Documents published by the European Central Bank since 2004 IX Glossary XV ECB Monthly Bulletin September 2005 3 ABBREVIATIONS COUNTRIES BE Belgium HU Hungary CZ Czech Republic MT Malta DK Denmark NL Netherlands DE Germany AT Austria EE Estonia PL Poland GR Greece PT Portugal ES Spain SI Slovenia FR France SK Slovakia IE Ireland FI Finland IT Italy SE Sweden CY Cyprus UK United Kingdom LV Latvia JP Japan LT Lithuania US United States LU Luxembourg OTHERS BIS Bank for International Settlements b.o.p. balance of payments BPM5 IMF Balance of Payments Manual (5th edition) CD certificate of deposit c.i.f. cost, insurance and freight at the importer’s border CPI Consumer Price Index ECB European Central Bank EER effective exchange rate EMI European Monetary Institute EMU Economic and Monetary Union ESA 95 European System of Accounts 1995 ESCB European System of Central Banks EU European Union EUR euro f.o.b. free on board at the exporter’s border GDP gross domestic product HICP Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices HWWA Hamburg Institute of International Economics ILO International Labour Organization IMF International Monetary Fund MFI monetary financial institution NACE Rev. 1 Statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community NCB national central bank PPI Producer Price Index SITC Rev. 3 Standard International Trade Classification (revision 3) ULCM unit labour costs in manufacturing ULCT unit labour costs in the total economy In accordance with Community practice, the EU countries are listed in this Bulletin using the alphabetical order of the country names in the national languages. ECB Monthly Bulletin 4 September 2005 EDITORIAL At its meeting on 1 September 2005, the corporate efficiency. Consumption growth Governing Council of the ECB decided to leave should gradually rise, broadly in line with the minimum bid rate on the main refinancing expected developments in disposable income. operations of the Eurosystem unchanged at 2.0%. The interest rates on the marginal lending This assessment is broadly consistent with the facility and the deposit facility were also left September 2005 ECB staff projections. Euro unchanged at 3.0% and 1.0% respectively. area real GDP is projected by staff to grow at rates of between 1.0% and 1.6% in 2005 On the basis of its regular economic and and between 1.3% and 2.3% in 2006 (for monetary analyses, the Governing Council has more details, see Box 7 entitled “ECB staff concluded that the monetary policy stance macroeconomic projections for the euro area”). remains appropriate, given the current outlook Recent forecasts from international and private for inflation rates over the medium term. The sector organisations give a similar picture. In prevailing exceptionally low level of both comparison with the June Eurosystem staff nominal and real interest rates across the entire projections, the ranges projected for real GDP maturity spectrum provides considerable growth in 2005 and 2006 have been revised support to economic activity in the euro area. At downwards slightly, reflecting both the present, although upside risks to price stability downward revision of growth data for the first exist, the Governing Council continues to see quarter of this year and the effects of higher oil no significant evidence of a build-up in prices. underlying inflationary pressures in the euro area. However, not least in view of the risk of On balance, risks to the economic growth second-round effects from ongoing oil price projections continue to lie on the downside, and increases, it continues to monitor the relate to higher oil prices, low consumer development of inflation expectations very confidence and concerns about global closely. At present, particular vigilance with imbalances. regard to upside risks to price stability is warranted. Turning to price developments, annual HICP inflation was 2.1% in August according to Considering first the economic analysis, real Eurostat’s flash estimate, compared with 2.2% GDP grew at a quarter-on-quarter rate of 0.3% in July. Over the next few months, annual in the second quarter of 2005, compared with HICP inflation rates are expected to fluctuate 0.4% in the first quarter according to the latest around current levels, mainly due to recent release from Eurostat. Economic activity thus developments in oil prices. Looking further continued to grow moderately in the euro area. ahead, ECB staff project average annual HICP The most recent survey indicators have, on inflation to lie between 2.1% and 2.3% in 2005 balance, been supportive to the view that and between 1.4% and 2.4% in 2006. The latest economic growth could improve in the second projections constitute considerable upward half of 2005, while higher oil prices continue to revisions to the Eurosystem staff inflation weigh on demand and confidence. projections published in June, reflecting the fact that oil prices have once again increased by On the external side, ongoing growth in global more than was suggested earlier by forward demand and improvements in euro area price prices. At the same time, wage increases have competitiveness should support euro area remained contained over recent quarters; the exports. On the domestic side, investment projections are based on the assumption that should benefit from very favourable financing this trend will prevail for the time being given conditions, the robust growth of corporate the current labour market situation. Overall, the earnings and ongoing improvements in Governing Council continues to see no ECB Monthly Bulletin September 2005 5 significant evidence of underlying domestic making a significant contribution towards a inflationary pressures building up in the euro recovery in economic growth. area. Fiscal policies will make their best contribution Risks to this new baseline inflation scenario are to stability, growth and confidence if prevailing on the upside and relate to potential further rises imbalances are tackled as part of determined and in oil prices, administered prices and indirect well-designed reform programmes. A rigorous taxes. More fundamentally, the main risks to implementation of the revised Stability and the inflation outlook stem from potential Growth Pact would reinforce the credibility of second-round effects in wage and price-setting reform plans and boost expectations of a sound behaviour triggered by ongoing oil price rises. fiscal and growth situation. Against this In this respect, it is key that the social partners background, it is regrettable that the pace of continue to meet their responsibilities. Against fiscal consolidation remains too slow. In some this background, wage developments and countries, targets for correcting excessive inflation expectations will continue to be deficits are at risk. Moreover, due to a very monitored very closely. Ongoing vigilance is generous application of the new rules of the required in order to ensure that longer-term Pact, countries which have recently breached inflation expectations remain well-anchored in the 3% deficit limit are being granted relatively the euro area. long periods to correct the situation. The Governing Council therefore urges Member Turning to the monetary analysis, the latest data States to step up consolidation efforts where confirm the strong monetary and credit growth needed and to implement the revised rules in a which has been observed since mid-2004. The manner that supports these efforts and deters monetary dynamics are driven by the prevailing future slippages. low level of interest rates, as reflected in the robust growth of the more liquid components of As regards structural reforms, the European M3. Low interest rates are also fuelling credit Commission has recently presented the expansion, with the strengthening of the “Community Lisbon Programme” and a list of demand for loans broadly based across the measures at the EU level to relaunch the Lisbon private sector. The growth of mortgage strategy. The programme focuses on enhancing borrowing remains very strong.
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