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Searching for Effective Teachers with Imperfect Information Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 24, Number 3—Summer 2010—Pages 97–118 Searching for Effective Teachers with Imperfect Information Douglas O. Staiger and Jonah E. Rockoff eeachingaching maymay bebe thethe most-scrutinizedmost-scrutinized occupationoccupation inin thethe economy.economy. OOverver tthehe ppastast ffourour ddecades,ecades, eempiricalmpirical rresearchers—manyesearchers—many ooff tthemhem eeconomists—haveconomists—have T aaccumulatedccumulated aann iimpressivempressive amountamount ofof evidenceevidence oonn tteachers:eachers: tthehe hhetero-etero- ggeneityeneity iinn tteachereacher pproductivity,roductivity, tthehe rriseise iinn pproductivityroductivity aassociatedssociated withwith teachingteaching ccredentialsredentials andand on-the-jobon-the-job experience,experience, ratesrates ofof turnover,turnover, thethe costscosts ooff rrecruitment,ecruitment, tthehe rrelationshipelationship bbetweenetween ssupplyupply aandnd qquality,uality, tthehe eeffectffect ooff cclasslass ssizeize andand thethe mmonetaryonetary vvaluealue ofof aacademiccademic achievementachievement gainsgains overover a student’sstudent’s llifetime.ifetime. SSinceince tthehe ppassageassage ooff tthehe NoNo ChildChild LeftLeft BehindBehind AAct,ct, alongalong withwith a numbernumber ofof state-levelstate-level eeducationalducational iinitiatives,nitiatives, tthehe ddataata nneededeeded toto estimateestimate individualindividual teacherteacher performanceperformance basedbased onon sstudenttudent aachievementchievement ggainsains hhaveave bbecomeecome mmoreore widelywidely available.available. HHowever,owever, ttherehere havehave bbeeneen rrelativelyelatively ffewew effortsefforts toto examineexamine thethe implicationsimplications ooff tthishis vvoluminousoluminous lliteratureiterature oonn tteachereacher performance.performance. IInn tthishis ppaper,aper, wewe aasksk whatwhat tthehe eexistingxisting evidenceevidence iimpliesmplies fforor hhowow sschoolchool lleaderseaders mmightight rrecruit,ecruit, evaluate,evaluate, andand retainretain teachers.teachers. WWee bbeginegin bbyy ssummarizingummarizing thethe evidenceevidence oonn fi vvee kkeyey points,points, referringreferring toto existingexisting wworkork aandnd toto evidenceevidence wwee hhaveave aaccumulatedccumulated ffromrom oourur rresearchesearch wwithith tthehe nnation’sation’s ttwowo largestlargest schoolschool districts:districts: LosLos AngelesAngeles aandnd NewNew YorkYork City.City. First,First, teachersteachers displaydisplay cconsiderableonsiderable hheterogeneityeterogeneity inin theirtheir effectseffects onon studentstudent achievementachievement gains.gains. TheThe stan-stan- ddardard deviationdeviation acrossacross teachersteachers inin theirtheir impactimpact onon studentstudent achievementachievement gainsgains isis onon tthehe orderorder ofof 0.10.1 toto 0.20.2 student-levelstudent-level sstandardtandard ddeviations,eviations, wwhichhich wwouldould iimprovemprove thethe ■ DDouglasouglas OO.. SStaigertaiger iiss JJohnohn FFrenchrench PProfessorrofessor ooff EEconomics,conomics, DDartmouthartmouth CCollege,ollege, HHanover,anover, NNewew HHampshire.ampshire. JonahJonah E.E. RockoffRockoff isis SidneySidney TaurelTaurel AssociateAssociate ProfessorProfessor ofof Business,Business, ColumbiaColumbia BBusinessusiness SSchool,chool, NNewew YYorkork CCity,ity, NNewew YYork.ork. TTheirheir ee-mail-mail aaddressesddresses aarere 〈[email protected]@ ddartmouth.eduartmouth.edu〉 aandnd 〈 [email protected]@columbia.edu〉. doi=10.1257/jep.24.3.97 98 Journal of Economic Perspectives mmedianedian sstudent’student’s ttestest sscorecore 4 ttoo 8 ppercentilesercentiles iinn a ssingleingle yyear.ear.1 SSecond,econd, eestimatesstimates ooff tteachereacher eeffectivenessffectiveness basedbased onon studentstudent aachievementchievement ddataata aarere nnoisyoisy mmeasureseasures aandnd ccanan bbee thoughtthought ooff aass hhavingaving rreliabilityeliability inin thethe rangerange ooff 3300 ttoo 5500 ppercent.ercent. TThird,hird, tteachers’eachers’ eeffectivenessffectiveness risesrises rapidlyrapidly iinn tthehe fi rrstst yearyear oror ttwowo ofof theirtheir tteachingeaching ccareersareers bbutut tthenhen qquicklyuickly llevelsevels oout.ut. FFourth,ourth, tthehe primaryprimary costcost ooff tteachereacher tturnoverurnover iiss nnotot tthehe ddirectirect costcost ofof hiringhiring andand fi rring,ing, bbutut rratherather iiss tthehe llossoss ttoo sstudentstudents wwhoho wwillill bbee ttaughtaught byby a novicenovice teacherteacher ratherrather thanthan oneone withwith severalseveral yearsyears ofof experience.experience. Fifth,Fifth, iitt iiss ddiffiiffi ccultult ttoo iidentifydentify tthosehose tteacherseachers wwhoho wwillill pproverove mmoreore eeffectiveffective atat tthehe ttimeime ooff hhire.ire. AAss a rresult,esult, betterbetter teachersteachers cancan onlyonly bebe identifiidentifi eedd aafterfter ssomeome eevidencevidence oonn ttheirheir aactualctual jjobob pperformanceerformance hhasas aaccumulated.ccumulated. WWee tthenhen eexplorexplore wwhathat tthesehese ffactsacts implyimply fforor hhowow pprincipalsrincipals aandnd schoolschool districtsdistricts sshouldhould aact,ct, uusingsing a ssimpleimple mmodelodel iinn wwhichhich sschoolschools mmustust ssearchearch fforor tteacherseachers uusingsing nnoisyoisy ssignalsignals ofof teacherteacher effectiveness.effectiveness. DueDue toto a lacklack ofof informationinformation availableavailable aatt tthehe ttimeime ooff hhire,ire, wwee wwillill aarguergue fforor a hhiringiring pprocessrocess tthathat iiss nnotot hhighlyighly sselective—thatelective—that iis,s, wwhilehile itit mightmight requirerequire evidenceevidence ofof generalgeneral educationaleducational achievementachievement likelike a collegecollege ddegree,egree, itit wouldwould notnot requirerequire individualsindividuals toto makemake costlycostly uup-frontp-front sspecifipecifi c invest-invest- mmentsents bbeforeefore bbeingeing ppermittedermitted ttoo tteach.each. WWee tthenhen aarguergue tthat,hat, ggiveniven tthehe ssubstantialubstantial oobservedbserved hheterogeneityeterogeneity ooff tteachereacher eeffects,ffects, tthehe mmodestodest rriseise iinn pproductivityroductivity wwithith oon-the-jobn-the-job eexperience,xperience, aandnd tthehe ffactact tthathat ttenureenure isis a lifetimelifetime job,job, ttenureenure pprotec-rotec- ttionsions sshouldhould bbee llimitedimited ttoo tthosehose wwhoho mmeeteet a vveryery hhighigh bbar.ar. EEvenven wwithith tthehe iimprecisemprecise eestimatesstimates ooff tteachereacher eeffectivenessffectiveness currentlycurrently available,available, oourur ssimulationsimulations ssuggestuggest thatthat a sstrategytrategy tthathat wwouldould ssampleample eextensivelyxtensively ffromrom tthehe ppoolool ooff ppotentialotential tteacherseachers bbutut oofferffer ttenureenure oonlynly ttoo a smallsmall percentagepercentage ccouldould yyieldield substantialsubstantial annualannual gainsgains inin studentstudent aachievement.chievement. TThehe implicationsimplications ooff oourur aanalysisnalysis areare strikinglystrikingly ddifferentifferent ffromrom ccurrenturrent ppractice.ractice. SSchoolschools andand sschoolchool districtsdistricts aattemptttempt ttoo sscreencreen aatt tthehe ppointoint ooff hhiringiring aandnd rrequireequire ssignifiignifi ccantant investmentinvestment iinn eeducation-specifiducation-specifi c ccourseworkoursework butbut tthenhen ggrantrant ttenureenure sstatustatus ttoo tteacherseachers aass a mmatteratter ooff ccourseourse aafterfter ttwowo ttoo tthreehree yearsyears onon thethe job.job. Perfor-Perfor- mmanceance evaluationevaluation iiss ttypicallyypically a pperfunctoryerfunctory exerciseexercise aand,nd, atat leastleast offioffi ccially,ially, vveryery ffewew tteacherseachers aarere cconsideredonsidered iineffectiveneffective (Weisberg,(Weisberg, SSexton,exton, Mulhern,Mulhern, aandnd KKeeling,eeling, 22009).009). RRatherather tthanhan sscreeningcreening atat tthehe ttimeime ooff hhire,ire, tthehe eevidencevidence oonn hheterogeneityeterogeneity ooff tteachereacher pperformanceerformance suggestssuggests a betterbetter strategystrategy wouldwould bebe identifyingidentifying largelarge differ-differ- eencesnces bbetweenetween teachersteachers byby oobservingbserving tthehe fi rrstst ffewew yearsyears ofof teachingteaching pperformanceerformance aandnd rretainingetaining oonlynly thethe highest-performinghighest-performing tteachers.eachers. 1 The metric of standard deviations is commonly used to assess the effect of educational interven- tions, and we will use it throughout this paper. To provide some context for readers unversed in this literature, the gap in achievement between poor and nonpoor students (or between black and white students) in the United States is roughly 0.8–0.9 standard deviations (authors’ calculations based on data from the 2009 National Assessment of Educational Progress). Douglas O. Staiger and Jonah E. Rockoff 99 FFiveive FFactsacts aaboutbout TTeachereacher EEffectivenessffectiveness AAnyny aapproachpproach toto recruitingrecruiting andand retainingretaining teachersteachers isis based,based, atat leastleast implicitly,implicitly, oonn a ssetet ooff bbeliefs.eliefs. Here,Here, wewe describedescribe thethe evidenceevidence oonn fi vvee kkeyey pparametersarameters rregardingegarding tteachereacher eeffectiveness.ffectiveness. FFactact 11:: TeacherTeacher PProductivityroductivity BBasedased oonn GGainsains iinn SStudenttudent AchievementAchievement
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