Volume 6, Issue 1 Environment @Harvard Harvard University Center for the Environment

www.environment.harvard.edu

Air Pollution’s Invisible Toll

Two decades later, pivotal Harvard School of Public Health Six Cities Study key in fight for clean air

By Alvin Powell

ears before Janice Nolen began keep- State of the Air report, has Ying tabs on the nation’s air quality followed the far-reaching ef- for the American Lung Association, her fects of the Harvard Six Cities mother used to tell her about air pollution Study, including a new suite of in her native Nashville that was so bad U.S. air pollution regulations that people brought an extra shirt to work that has seen the nation’s air so they’d have a clean one to change into. grow cleaner, political contro- By 1993, those days seemed to be in the versy over those regulations past. The major amendments to the U.S. that continues today, and a Clean Air Act that passed in 1970 had new generation of studies in- been at work for decades, and the air was vestigating avenues opened by visibly cleaner. So it was a shock to Nolen Six Cities’ findings. —today the Lung Association’s assistant “It’s a landmark, no ques- vice president of national policy and ad- tion about it,” Nolen said of vocacy—when Harvard School of Public the Harvard study. “[It has] Health researchers highlighted still deadly just absolutely been funda- air pollution in the small city of Harri- mental to the work we’ve been man, Tennessee that was taking years from doing over the last 20 years people’s lives. to reduce particle pollution

“It was not one of those places you’d across the country…Because services p h oto Harvard think of as having a pollution problem,” of this work showing an asso- HSPH Professor Douglas Dockery, pictured taking air Nolen said. Nolen, who joined the Lung ciation, it was easier to convince people pollution measurements in South Boston in 1999, Association the year after the study was that this wasn’t just an arbitrary health joined the Six Cities Study in the 1970s as a graduate published and who authors its annual effect, it was lives lost.” student and later became its principal investigator.

20 Environmental Fellows in this issue Four new environmental scholars join HUCE The Six Cities Study documented the Six Cities Study Leaves Clean Air Legacy for two years of research with Harvard faculty. health effects of air pollution over nearly Harvard research into deadly effects of air two decades in Harriman; St. Louis, Mis- pollution continues to make an impact two 21 New Secondary Field for Undergrads souri; Watertown, Massachusetts; Steu- decades later. Starting this fall, students will have a new way benville, Ohio; Portage, Wisconsin; and to be engaged in environmental issues. Topeka, Kansas. It broke new ground by 12 China 2035 Lecture Series highlighting for the first time the danger Harvard faculty assess China’s energy, 22 Climate Change Beyond 400 ppm from the smallest particles, no bigger than economic, and environmental challenges. HUCE event marks an alarming CO2 milestone.

Harvard University Center for the Environment 1 As industrialization took hold in the early 20th century, factories–including this wire mill in Donora, PA–churned harmful pollutants into the air. In 1948, an atmospheric inversion in Donora trapped the emissions, killing 20 residents and causing respiratory issues in countless more.

shrugged at their ailments, believing their sniffles were the cost of progress. It soon became apparent, however, that progress’ price wasn’t just ill health, but potentially life itself. In 1948, an atmospheric inversion over the industrial town of Donora, Pennsylvania trapped emissions from steel and zinc smelters over the town for days. Twenty people died and some 6,000—nearly half the population—had severe respiratory prob- lems, including chest pains and shortness

Library of C ongress Library of breath. A few years later, in 1952, a Decem- 2.5 microns in diameter—one fourth lem and the biggest effect to be on the ber fog settled over London, the still air the size in the air pollution standards at lungs,” Dockery continued. “It has be- brewing toxic emissions into a deadly the time. It linked pollution from those come apparent that the lungs and heart stew, causing the worst air pollution di- particles not only to ill health, as other are so intimately connected that if air saster on record. Some 4,000 deaths were studies had before, but directly to deaths, pollution is straining the lungs, it puts a immediately attributed to the episode which were 26 percent higher in the strain on the heart also. The most impor- and its aftermath. A 2004 analysis exam- most polluted city—Steubenville—than tant effects we see are cardiovascular.” ined excess deaths later that winter and in the least. put the number several times higher, at The nature of those deaths was a sur- From killer smoke to concerted action about 12,000. prise as well. The biggest cause was not Six Cities got its start in 1974, four Even as public concern was mount- respiratory disease, as seemed logical, years after the Clean Air Act of 1970 ing over industrial pollution in the East, but rather stroke, heart attack, and other and at a time when public pressure was another problem arose in the clear skies coronary conditions. building and action was already begin- of Los Angeles. Though little coal was Perhaps most important for federal ning to clean up skies over the U.S. burned in L.A., residents were periodi- regulatory officials, Six Cities also That pressure resulted from a shift in cally afflicted by an eye-burning haze, illustrated that some 23 years after the the public’s attitude toward air pollu- first noticed in 1943. Investigations modern regulatory scheme was adopted tion and economic development. But in found a new kind of pollution, ozone, in the Clean Air Act amendments of the early decades of the 20th century, a which was not emitted directly from 1970, air pollution was still killing thou- different kind of pressure was on: to in- smokestacks, but instead was produced sands of Americans annually. novate and modernize. Ever bigger fac- in the atmosphere by the reaction of auto “We were surprised by this very strong tories churned out new products result- exhaust, industrial emissions, and sun- unexpected effect on mortality,” said Douglas Dockery, chair of the Harvard “[The Six Cities Study] is a landmark, no question School of Public Health’s Department of Environmental Health. Dockery, a fac- about it...Because of this work, it was easier to con- ulty associate of the Harvard University vince people that [particle pollution] wasn’t just an Center for the Environment (HUCE), joined Six Cities as a graduate student in arbitrary health effect—it was lives lost.” the 1970s and later became the study’s principal investigator. “There’d been lots ing from wave after wave of innovation. shine, trapped and simmering in the Los of papers on respiratory illness and asth- New cars packed the roads, adding their Angeles basin. ma and chronic obstructive pulmonary own emissions to the air. Radios and Frank Speizer, professor of environ- disease and lung function and so forth, televisions, washing machines, and a mental science at the Harvard School of but it was the mortality paper that got dizzying array of goods were demanded Public Health, Kass distinguished pro- the most attention and really galvanized by the burgeoning consumer society. fessor of medicine at Harvard Medical the political debate. The fumes that poured from smoke- School (HMS), and principal investiga- “When you think about the routes of stacks, darkening the skies, made people tor of the Six Cities Study, worked on exposure, you expect a respiratory prob- cough and wheeze, but many just early air pollution studies in the 1950s

2 Volume 6, Issue 1 Letter from the Director

Dear Friends: The health impacts of Chinese air pollution are best understood in the context of classic work in environmental epidemiology that After a long, cold winter in the Northeast, spring has finally ar- was done here at Harvard over the last many decades. This is the rived. In the midst of the glorious flowers and our lush, green subject of our other feature, focusing on the legacy of the Harvard campus, it is easy to think only of our local climate, forgetting Six Cities study, and the continuing work at Harvard on air pollu- about what is happening far away, such as the drought and heat tion and health impacts around the world. wave in California. But when we look globally, the progress of cli- Here at the Center, we are continuing to work to connect the mate change is hard to ignore. different parts of this remarkable university, encouraging fresh Just a few weeks ago, Ralph Keeling from the Scripps Institution ideas and new approaches. More importantly, we are working to of Oceanography returned to Harvard (where he completed his provide our students from all of Harvard’s many Schools and pro- Ph.D. under the supervision of Jim Anderson) to announce that grams with access to the frontier of knowledge, involving them

the amount of atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii remained in debates, above 400 parts per million for the entire month of April 2014, the discussions, first time this has occurred in all of human history. Of course, 400 and dialogues.

ppm is an arbitrary threshold; atmospheric CO2 will continue to This spring, we rise for at least the next 50 years, and probably much longer as we announced continue to burn fossil fuels. But there is something remarkable a secondary about being above 400 ppm for the first time in roughly 4 million field for under- years. When I was in graduate school, it was only 350 ppm. When I graduates, run came to Harvard in 1997, it was 370 ppm. And now it is above 400. by the Con- As Keeling stated in his presentation, we have long talked about centration in avoiding a dangerous level of greenhouse gases in our atmo- Environmental sphere. Exactly what is a dangerous level is hard to define, but 400 Science and ppm certainly feels like the wrong side of where we should be. Public Policy, A central question to how the world will manage the climate that will allow challenge is what will happen to the rapidly expanding energy students in the system of China. This has been the subject of a new HUCE lecture College from series this spring, and a feature article in this newsletter. With any concentration to obtain a basic introduction to the energy its enormous appetite for energy, mostly from coal-fired power and environmental challenges we face. Their engagement with

plants, China passed the U.S. as the world’s largest emitter of CO2 these issues will ultimately determine our progress, and educat- just seven or eight years ago, but its emissions are now more ing them is our greatest privilege and responsibility. than 50 percent higher than the U.S. and still growing fast. Now China stands at a crossroads, finally ready to confront its neglect- With best wishes for a not-so-hot summer, ful environmental policies. China’s current environmental woes are driven by concerns about air, water and soil pollution, not by climate change, but the issues are deeply interconnected, and my colleagues around the University are working to better under- Dan Schrag stand how environmental policies in China going forward may Director, HUCE lead to environmental solutions at a global scale. in Los Angeles. He recalls being halted at spoke of the crude measures they used to effect today. a stop sign and someone banging on the gather data at the time. Despite the legislation, change was window and asking when something was “You could see the mountain or you slow. Michael McElroy, Harvard’s Butler going to be done about the air pollution. could not see the mountain,” said Speiz- professor of environmental studies and Though momentum toward change er, a HUCE faculty associate. “It actually faculty associate of HUCE, remembers was slowly building, effective action was turned out to be a very good measure, growing up in Belfast in the 1940s and still decades away, at least in part because but that’s how qualitative it was.” 1950s and how the white handkerchief so little was actually known about how Early federal legislation included the he put in his pocket each morning be- air pollution affected health. Clean Air Act of 1963, amendments in came black by the end of the day from As a student in Los Angeles in the late 1966, initial restrictions on auto exhaust his repeated blowing. By the time he 1950s, Speizer worked on an early study in 1965, additional legislation in 1967, visited Pittsburgh in the 1960s, the prob- of ozone pollution’s effects on lung func- and the Clean Air Act of 1970, which lem hadn’t changed. tion of patients at a veterans hospital. He established the regulatory structures in “The problems of that time were pretty

Harvard University Center for the Environment 3 Frank Speizer, professor of environmental Speizer told of how carbon monoxide science at HSPH; Kass distinguished professor limits in Boston’s Sumner Tunnel were of medicine at HMS; and one of the Six Cities established at the time, among officials principal investigators. at a restaurant over dinner, with guess- work playing an uncomfortably large obvious. The air was dirty,” McElroy role in the process. said. “That was sort of the situation “Nobody knew what levels to set, in many of the industrial cities of the that was the problem,” Speizer said. world. I grew up in Belfast, Northern “We knew carbon monoxide was bad Ireland and that is the environment I for you—there were studies done in the experienced. I visited Pittsburgh in the ’20s that showed cognitive decline and ’60s, and Pittsburgh was just as bad as acute poisoning. But the question was Belfast was when I left. You sort of be- what should the level be in the Sumner came used to it.” Tunnel for workers and drivers?” By the early 1970s, significant ac- tion was being taken, but Speizer said From Steubenville to Topeka that the science underpinning many Shortly after the 1970 Clean Air Act, of the new standards was still wanting. Speizer and Ben Ferris, both professors These were the early days of the field at HSPH, appeared before a federal of epidemiology, which would provide commission investigating the health some answers, and, though some studies impacts of burning coal. Commission- pointed the way, others ran into ers asked how the two would go about problems of quality control and data assessing those impacts. In response,

Brigham and women’s hospital Brigham analysis, Speizer said. Speizer drafted a document detailing a

Faculty Profile Richard Vietor

s a young schoolteacher on Long Island, research, Vietor soon found himself drafted ARichard Vietor recalls taking part in the into classroom duty, as one of nine professors first Earth Day by riding his bike to work wear- teaching a course called “Business, Govern- ing a gas mask. ment and International Economy,” more popu- These days, Vietor, the Cherington professor larly known as “BGIE.” of business administration and senior associ- When the Working Group on Environment ate dean of the Harvard Business School, is was created in the early 1990s, Vietor—by then still committed to environmental causes as a the author of several books on environmental leading expert on the business of renewable politics and countless HBS cases that energies—particularly wind power. addressed environmental issues—was Vietor’s academic interest in the nexus of invited to join. they can actually generate electricity to build business, politics and the environment can be When asked about the future of the renew- an undersea cable all the way to Europe,” he traced back decades, to his work as a doctoral able energy industry, Vietor said he expects said. “They’re considering doing that…be- student at the University of Pittsburgh. the next several years will bring a tipping point cause if they can deliver electricity in England Working under environmental historian as technology continues to drive costs down. or Ireland for ten cents per kilowatt hour, that Samuel P. Hays, Vietor wrote his dissertation “It is happening, but it requires oil prices to would be comparable to their cost.” on environmental politics and coal, and later stay high,” Vietor said. “The cost of solar has Other nations, like Ireland and Denmark, wrote a book that examined stationary source come down drastically—about three years have turned to wind power, and today gener- air pollution and coal strip mining. ago, solar cost about 18 cents per kilowatt ate 20 percent or more of their energy using “After I completed my doctoral dissertation hour, and it’s now down near 14 cents. That wind turbines. on coal, I realized that coal-related air pollu- still doesn’t compete in the U.S., but prices are “That has freed them up from having to im- tion and water pollution were big deals and continuing to drop.” port so much natural gas,” Vietor said. “It’s kill people,” he said. “But it wasn’t until later, With renewable technologies becoming also an alternative to nuclear power for coun- when I became aware of climate change, that I increasingly viable, Vietor said a number of tries that choose not to have it. However, it’s understood how great the problem is.” nations have begun to turn to them as a way variable, so they can’t do it all with wind—you The path that brought Vietor to Harvard be- to supplement their power needs. need to have base load from other gan when he received a year-long fellowship. “Iceland, for example, not only has enough energy sources.” Though he intended to use the time solely for geothermal energy to power themselves, but — Peter Reuell

4 Volume 6, Issue 1 The vivid relationship between particulate matter levels and Harvard Six Cities Mortality Study mortality is represented in this chart from the Six Cities Study. 74

Portage, WI study of sulfur dioxide and total suspended particles, Topeka, KS which would later be re- 73 fined to examine particles of different sizes. Shortly Watertown, MA after, the two were asked to submit the proposal, which would become the Six Cit- 72 ies Study, for funding. The first city to be en- St. Louis, MO rolled in Six Cities was Life ExpectancyLife nearby Watertown in Harriman, TN 1974. Watertown was 71 selected because of its proximity so that the re- searchers could work out kinks in their procedures Steubenville, OH before the study spread 70 to more distant locations. 10 15 20 25 30 Harriman, Tennessee and 3 St. Louis were enrolled PM2.5 (μg/m ) in 1975. Steubenville, Mortality adjusted for age, sex, cigarette smoking, occupation, education, obesity, and chronic disease. Dockery et al., 1993 Ohio—the most pol- luted city—was enrolled in 1976, along with Portage, Wiscon- measured lung function before, during crude measure of total suspended parti- sin, which had the cleanest air. Topeka, and after air pollution events. We could cles to measuring and analyzing particles Kansas, which rivaled Portage for clean- see their lung volumes dropped during of different sizes, which would be key in liness, was the last to join, in 1977. these events. the landmark 1993 paper. The study enrolled 8,111 adults be- “It was the first study I was involved Called an “impactor,” the device tween age 25 and 74 who were followed in that directly showed the effect of air sucked air through a nozzle and directed up annually, as well as some 14,000 pollution with objective physiological it around an impactor sheet and then children in grades one through four, measures,” Dockery said. “We were tak- through a filter paper. By tuning the air who were followed through high school. ing these clinical measures into the field flow, the greater momentum of the larg- Researchers set up instruments in each city and gathered air quality data. After “It was the first study I was involved in that directly conducting initial physical examinations and detailed questionnaires, researchers showed the effect of air pollution with obvious physi- returned every third year and tracked ological measures. We were taking these clinical mea- down participants, taking basic health measurements and asking about smoking sures in the field and providing objective measures of the habits, health history, and occupational health of the kids—that was one of the innovations.” history. In the years between, research- ers sent annual post cards that served to and providing objective measures of the er, heavier particles would cause them to alert researchers when a study participant health of the kids. That was one of the hit the impactor sheet, where they could died, after which researchers tracked innovations of the study.” be measured, while the lighter, smaller down cause-of-death information. Another innovation was provided by particles remained entrained in the air “We were in Steubenville, a steelmak- John Spengler, today the Yamaguchi flow and collected on filter paper deeper ing community, and periodically they’d professor of environmental health and inside the instrument. Developed to- have bad air pollution episodes,” Dock- human habitation at HSPH, who joined gether with an aerosol physicist from the ery recalled. “We set up the study to Six Cities as a postdoctoral fellow shortly University of Minnesota and a research monitor the kids, measure lung function, after it began and designed instruments team at the U.S. Environmental Protec- and then, when the air pollution was go- to measure particles of different sizes. tion Agency (EPA), the instrument could ing to get bad, re-tested some kids. We This allowed the study to shift from the be tuned by changing the size of the

Harvard University Center for the Environment 5 opening and the speed of the air flow, to ous fellows who worked under those fac- ers examined the mortality data from separate particles of different sizes, which ulty members’ auspices. roughly 500,000 of that study’s subjects could then be measured and analyzed. The study’s most far-reaching effects, who lived in 151 cities for which there Particles larger than 10 microns were however, stemmed from that 1993 mor- was also air pollution data. gathered, along with particles smaller tality paper, published in December in It was only after researchers saw simi- than 10 and smaller than 2.5 microns. the New England Journal of Medicine. lar results that they submitted the Six Once the samples were gathered, Spen- The results were shocking enough— Cities paper. gler said, they could be sent to the EPA even to the researchers—that Speizer, the Government officials took notice, lab, where they were analyzed for metals. paper’s senior author, refused to submit prodded by an American Lung Associa- “That was a big advance, because from them for publication until they had been tion lawsuit that demanded that the EPA the metals, we could tell the sources [of validated. The difference in mortality review air pollution standards on the the emissions],” said Spengler, today a between the cleanest and most polluted schedule required by law. In 1997, the faculty associate at the Harvard Universi- cities was much larger than anticipated, EPA approved new particulate standards based on Six Cities and the American Though the nation’s air has gotten cleaner in the years Cancer Society data. The new standards restricted levels of 2.5 micron particles since the new particle pollution standards were imple- in the air. mented in 1997, work remains to be done. Most of these particles, it turned out, are not caused by the initial burning ty Center for the Environment. “Vanadi- equivalent to two or three years’ life ex- that leads to industrial emissions, but um and nickel were from oil, sulfur and pectancy, Dockery said. That’s equal to are rather formed in reactions in the at- selenium were from coal, Earth crustals what would be anticipated nationally if mosphere between chemicals released by and iron were from steel plants.” all cancers were cured. burning—mainly sulfur dioxide but also In addition to the hundreds of research “It was totally unexpected that air pollu- nitrogen oxides. papers spawned by the study itself, the tion, and at these modest levels, was hav- Unlike larger particles that become instruments themselves have also had an ing such a dramatic effect,” Dockery said. ensnared in nose hairs and caught on the enduring impact, Spengler said, and have “That really changed the whole discussion.” walls of the upper respiratory tract and been duplicated and used around the The researchers looked around for spit out, these tiny particles—made of a world. The work also launched two gen- datasets that they could use to validate variety of compounds—can be inhaled erations of academic careers—Spengler their results and found health statistics deep into the lungs, where they land on tallied four professorships resulting from from across the country in an enormous the delicate lung tissue separating air the first generation of research, including study of 1.2 million people gathered by from blood and do their damage. his own, and several among the numer- the American Cancer Society. Research- The result, as highlighted in Six Cities, is indeed respiratory symptoms—higher asthma rates, poor lung function, slowed lung growth among the young—but also heart attacks, strokes and death. The new standards forced additional restrictions on industrial emissions of 2.5 micron particles—called PM (par- ticulate matter) 2.5—and have been un- der assault by industry and their political allies ever since. That assault has taken various forms. A few years after the new standards went into effect, Congress asked for a detailed review of the Six Cities and American Cancer Society studies. After examining the data, a team of U.S. and Canadian researchers led by Daniel Krewski at the McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment in Ottawa re-

John Spengler, the Yamaguchi professor of environmental health and human habitation at HSPH, joined the Six Cities study as a postdoc- toral fellow. He credits the work with launching two generations of academic careers, including his own professorship.

6 Volume 6, Issue 1 ported in 2003 that they were in “almost complete agreement” with the original study’s conclusions. The study’s political opponents haven’t given up, however. As recently as last fall, congressional Republicans subpoenaed the Six Cities data, much of which is protect- ed by the confidentiality restrictions that guard all human studies, in an effort to bring to light what they term “secret sci- ence” underpinning emissions standards. Dockery, who received the subpoena, declined comment. But Spengler pointed out that the science has not only proven sound, the cleaner air has been shown to save the U.S. economy far more than it cost, with one study estimating that the economic benefits of improved health for millions of Americans—in reduced sick days and extended working lives—out- weigh the cost of air pollution controls erry C u ll inan T erry by 18 to 1. “You’d think it’d be asked and an- swered,” Spengler said. “In spite of all

that, the pressure’s still on.” of I mage courtesy Though primary data collection ceased in 1991, Six Cities continues to inform. ing to the American Lung Association’s The W.H. Sammis Power Plant, located in Stratton, Mortality statistics are still collected, us- annual State of the Air report. Ohio, just up the Ohio River from Steubenville. The ing the federal government’s National “It [the particle pollution standards] coal-fired plant scaled back operations in 2012. Death Index, and in 2006, HSPH As- saves lives, but we’re not where we need sociate Professor Francine Laden was the to be. Last year’s report showed we still lead author of a paper that again con- have 140 million people who lived in died from indoor air pollution, much of firmed the association between air pollu- areas that were unhealthy. Part of that is it generated by smoky indoor cookstoves. tion and mortality, albeit using a happier understanding better what unhealthy is, As it once was in industrialized nations, trend. Her analysis showed that mortality and that’s what studies like the Six Cit- the stench from burning forests and coal- fell along with levels of the 2.5 micron ies Study helped us to see,” Nolen said. fueled plants is still thought to be the particles, with three percent fewer deaths “It wasn’t just [removing] the soot—the price of progress in many places, progress for every microgram reduction in a cu- worst of the haze was invisible soot—we that national leaders are loath to curb. bic meter of air. The observed reduction had to get cleaner and cleaner and clean- The result is that some 20 years after the equaled approximately 75,000 lives each er…We haven’t solved the problem by Six Cities Study dramatically highlighted year in the U.S., Laden said. any means, but it’s less burdensome on the danger, air pollution is the world’s In 2012, an extended follow-up of people’s health.” single largest environmental health risk, Six Cities by Laden, Dockery, Johanna Lepeule, a visiting scientist at HSPH, Harvard researchers are working with collaborators and Joel Schwartz, HSPH professor of environmental epidemiology, confirmed at universities around the world to understand air the initial findings with 11 years of addi- pollution’s local dynamics and explore approaches that tional data. Specifically, they found that every 10 microgram increase of PM-2.5 would help millions breathe easier. per cubic meter of air was associated with a 14 percent increased risk of death from An eye on Asia according to the WHO report. all causes, a 26 percent increased risk of In many places around the world, the Harvard researchers are working with death from cardiovascular causes, and a lessons from Six Cities remain to be ap- collaborators at universities around the 37 percent increased risk of death from plied. Some 3.7 million people died in world to both understand air pollution’s lung cancer. 2012 from outdoor air pollution—more local dynamics and explore approaches Though the nation’s air has gotten than 80 percent in low- and middle- that would help millions breathe easier. cleaner in the years since the new particle income countries, according to a March The choking smog that wreathes China’s pollution standards were implemented in 2014 report by the World Health Or- major cities is the focus of Harvard’s 1997, work remains to be done, accord- ganization (WHO), and millions more China Project, begun by Mike McElroy

Harvard University Center for the Environment 7 in the early 1990s. Despite his boyhood in industrial Belfast, McElroy recalls be- ing nearly bowled over by the choking smells experienced during an early trip, in 1995, to Chongqing, a city of about 20 million on the Yangtze River. “We arrived late at night. I’ve experi- enced air pollution in my life, but this was 95 to 100 degrees at night, people were working in the streets, pouring tar, with no shirts on,” McElroy said. “The place just smelled awful, awful, awful.” McElroy was later escorted to one of the city’s iron and steel factories by an environmental official.

gt. Jessica G effre Jessica S gt. by p h oto A rmy “I have never seen anything like this

U . S in my life,” McElroy said. “There were coal trains coming through that place continually dumping off the coal, just an Wildfires in the West Set to Worsen astounding flow of coal. There were high smoke stacks and one in the middle, he effect of burning forests on hu- that would spread more easily. According about a quarter mile back. It was like Tman health is not a problem solely for to their model projections, by 2050, the standing behind a jet plane taking off, distant governments contemplating the Pacific Northwest would see a 65 percent like a supersonic blast. You could see the future of virgin rainforests. increase in the area burned in the month dirty smoke coming out of these stacks. Recent research by Loretta Mickley, se- of August alone, the eastern Rocky “I turned to my guide and asked, ‘Is this nior research fellow in chemistry-climate Mountains/Great Plains region would see place consistent with clean air standards interactions at the Harvard School of the burnt area nearly double, and the your ministry is imposing? He smiled and Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS), Rocky Mountain forest region would see said, ‘Of course not. If this place had to together with collaborators at Harvard it quadruple. The research also indicated meet international standards, it would and the Ecole Polytechnique Federale de that the probability of large fires would have to be closed down.’” Lausanne in Switzerland, shows that one increase by a factor of two to three, and The China Project, based in Harvard’s effect of climate change may be a wildfire that the lengthened fire season would School of Engineering and Applied Sci- season in the western U.S. that is three start in April instead of May and end in ences, today provides a focus for faculty weeks longer and up to twice as smoky, mid-October instead of the beginning of and fellows from across Harvard and including as much as a quadrupling of that month. partner institutions in China who are the extent of August fires in the Rockies. As a consequence of the findings, Mick- interested in China’s energy, economy, The work, released in August 2013 and ley said air pollution can be expected to and atmospheric environment. It works published in the October issue of Atmo- get worse in Denver, Salt Lake City and to understand what is happening in spheric Environment, checked the extent other major metropolises. China’s skies from an interdisciplinary and severity of historical Western fires “We find fire activity is very likely to point of view, encompassing atmospheric against past weather conditions and cre- increase in the future,” Mickley said. chemistry, economics, and human health, ated computer models that explained “Moisture parameters, rainfall and rela- and suggesting viable solutions. A book past wildfire behavior. It then used those tive humidity may not change as much as published in November, Clearer Skies models and predictions about changing temperature in the West. Still, it’s going over China, brings together economists future climate to look at what might be in to be hot, and high temperatures will and natural, applied, and health scientists store. The answer is bad news for the air dry out fuel. Fire activity is expected to from the U.S. and China to examine a quality of major cities across the Ameri- increase, and we find a longer fire season successful Chinese effort to regulate sulfur can West. by three weeks. dioxide and explores the potential impact The study, led by former SEAS senior “The government has done a tremen- of a carbon tax. McElroy’s own research, research fellow Jennifer Logan and dous job cutting back emissions from meanwhile, has focused on the potential conducted by Mickley, former doctoral power plants, cars. It’s really remarkable for renewable alternatives to burning student Xu Yue, and Jed Kaplan, a profes- what the Clean Air Act has accomplished, dirty coal. In fact, in a 2009 study of sor at Ecole Polytechnique Federale de but …when we look at the future, it seems China’s wind power potential, McElroy Lausanne, found that across the majority wildfires could really ramp up our pollu- found that China could potentially meet of the West, hotter and drier conditions tion problem in the western U.S. That’s the all of its power needs through wind alone. in forested regions in a given year would message we’re most confident about.” Air that is unhealthy to breathe is just lead to a greater number of larger fires — Alvin Powell half of the Asian giant’s air pollution concerns. In recent years, it surpassed

8 Volume 6, Issue 1 the United States to become the world’s That the fires have a health impact is bigger tracts for cash crops, while indus- biggest emitter of carbon dioxide, the beyond doubt. In addition to the data trial plantations burn forests to make greenhouse gas largely responsible for from Six Cities and subsequent studies, room for oil palm trees. human-caused climate change. HSPH’s Spengler was an eyewitness to “The public health costs of those fires If there is a silver lining for China’s air the effects while attending meetings at are staggering,” Daniel Jacob, McCoy pollution problems, McElroy said, it is the University of Singapore when the Family professor of atmospheric chem- that actions to improve air quality will fires reached their peak. istry and environmental engineering also address climate change, since both Though the fires were more than and HUCE faculty associate, said later. have roots in burning coal for power. De- a hundred miles away, Spengler said “When you look at the kind of particu- spite the Chinese government’s efforts to breathing in the meeting room was la- late levels Singapore was exposed to in improve air quality, McElroy said he be- bored and voices gravelly. June of this year, this is a smog that takes lieves that significant change may depend “You would swear the building was on years from your lifetime.” on breakthrough innovations pioneered fire. It had that wood-burning smell, it Jacob is part of the Myers-led study in the industrialized West. penetrated into buildings,” Spengler said. of Sumatra’s burning. The project also An ill wind over Singapore “The public health costs of those fires are staggering... One day in late September 2013, an in- terdisciplinary group of researchers gath- When you look at the kind of particulate levels that ered in a conference room on the third Singapore was exposed to in June of this year, this is a floor of Harvard’s Hoffman Laboratory. On a screen at the front of the room smog that takes years from your lifetime.” played a time lapse clip showing the intensity of smoke from burning forests “Even across the quad, you just saw this involves Senior Research Fellow in in Sumatra blowing across the narrow veil of smoke that started to obscure the Chemistry-Climate Interactions Loretta Strait of Malacca toward Singapore, with buildings on the other side. And forget Mickley, Professor of Environmental Epi- darker colors representing higher aerosol about seeing the city.” demiology Joel Schwartz, and colleagues concentrations. A black plume represent- Despite the smoke’s dramatic effect, from Ruth DeFries’ lab at Columbia ing the worst smoke appeared, length- the fact that Sumatra was burning was ened, and reached across the strait as the not unusual. Subsistence farmers burn In June 2013, NASA satellites captured smoke date crawled toward the smoke’s peak, on forests each year to clear land for their billowing from illegal wildfires on Sumatra. The June 21, the day Singapore’s air quality home gardens and burn scrub on previ- smoke blew east toward Malaysia and Singa- dipped to the worst levels in its history. ously cleared land to make room for pore, creating thick haze and pushing pollution “They experienced a pollution stan- crops. Larger farms burn too, clearing to record levels. dards index of 401, which is higher than has ever been recorded in history in the region,” Malaysia said Samuel Myers, a research scientist at the HSPH and HUCE faculty associate. “The episode…prob- ably is associated with a 10 percent to 30 percent increase in all-cause mor- South China Sea tality. There were billions of dollars lost in morbid- ity and mortality.” A team led by Myers has Singapore embarked on a project to understand burning on the Indonesian island of Su- Sumatra matra, its health impacts on nearby cities, and to create computer-generated scenarios to help policy- makers make informed de- cisions on whether, where, ll ite image S ate and when to burn. NASA

Harvard University Center for the Environment 9 Samuel Myers, instructor in medicine at HMS and research scientist at the HSPH Department of Environmental Health, works to understand the ecological and environmental impacts of Sumatra’s forest fires.

particles in the smoke so they can better interpret satellite observations, Jacob said. “To be able to interpret satellite properly in a part of the world where the interpreta- tion is really complicated because there’s a lot of clouds and there’s an archipelago of land and ocean—all this makes it difficult to see the particles from space,” Jacob said. “So this is something we’re working on, to see what kind of information we can get from the satellite. In the end, I think this will be key to be able to monitor the prob- lem in the future.” An important element in their calcu- lations is understanding how particles change during transport, Mickley said. For example, the particles attract compounds that make them more soluble in water. oto services / rose l inco n services p h oto Harvard This affects their transport by allowing University. Using satellite imagery, newly ated with the benefits provided by intact them to rain out more readily. developed analytical tools, and publicly forests—clean water, a home for wildlife, “When they’re first emitted, they’re not available data, this interdisciplinary and a purer “airshed,” as Myers terms soluble in water,” said Mickley, also an group is applying the expertise from at- it—compared with the costs and benefits HUCE faculty associate. “As different mospheric science, public health, and ecol- if the forests are burned and converted to chemicals coat them, they become more ogy and environmental biology in order to other uses. soluble, more vulnerable to raining out understand what’s happening in Sumatra. “What’s happened [since 1985] is along the way. So a chemistry model can They’re looking at everything from the eco- that essentially half of Sumatra has been tell you some of this information.” nomic drivers of burning practices to the burned down,” Myers said. “And the pre- Researchers are also sorting out how to health impacts on city residents downwind. dictions are that by 2100, Southeast Asia handle ozone, Jacob said. Ozone is gener- “Our goal in using these new tools is to could lose three-quarters of its forests, up ated by the fires but may not have the really characterize this system so we fully to 42 percent of its biodiversity, including same health impact as fine particles. understand how certain kinds of land cover over half the mammals, amphibians and “It’s a toxic gas, the number one pollut- are associated with certain kinds of fires and reptiles. Oh, and over half of the mam- ant in the U.S.,” Jacob said. “It’s produced how these fires are associated with certain mals, amphibians and reptiles are endemic in the fire plume, but we don’t really kinds of emissions—and how those emis- and don’t exist in other places. That’s the understand the mechanism by which it sions are transported in predictable ways to reach specific concentrations of pollutants “We want to…produce a tool to allow policymakers in the at the population level,” Myers said. “Then, what we really want to do is understand how region to calculate and argue that conservation strategies land management decisions being made to- will have important public health dividends.” day will alter exposures in the future.” Though the project’s primary focus is conservation challenge.” is produced. We don’t have observations improving human health, it also serves Because there are few ground-based from the ground, so that means our mod- an underlying conservation cause, My- monitoring stations in the region, most of els are pretty uncertain.” ers said. It’s not a coincidence that major the data are coming from satellite readings, Together, the researchers are seeking to health effects from burning forests are from which Jacob’s group is working to develop computer models that can generate being felt in a part of the world undergo- extract as much information as possible. a series of different scenarios that could be ing rapid deforestation. Those forests are Once they get the data, they’re plugging used as tools for policymakers in the region. home to a significant part of the world’s it into their global climate model, which The scenarios will project the ultimate biodiversity and include many species they’re using in zoomed mode to examine impact of a “business-as-usual” approach found no place else. In part, the project the region more closely. to the forests, of varying levels of develop- is intended to help policymakers under- Among other things, they want to char- ment, and of a “green vision” where greater stand the hard-to-quantify costs associ- acterize the size and optical properties of emphasis is placed on conservation and in

10 Volume 6, Issue 1 which the improved health of the region’s gested a geographical focus for action. oil, maybe more people will die, but we residents is considered. The peat forests of southeastern Sumatra, don’t know how many or where. We want Such a prediction tool has drawn initial where a lot of burning is going on now, to quantify that. interest from Singapore’s government and are the source of a lot of the smoke that “We want to…produce a tool to allow should enable policymakers to fully evalu- hits Singapore. Indonesian government policymakers in the region to calculate and ate the costs, including human health, officials have made it clear they won’t curb argue that conservation strategies will have versus the economic benefits of new oil development, but perhaps land could be important public health dividends, and palm plantations, for example. And, if cleared on the western part of the island make that case in a scientific way,” he said. policymakers let plantations move ahead, instead, to spare Singapore. Another tack Ultimately, Myers said, such a tool the work could help determine where could be taken by Singapore’s govern- could also be used elsewhere, since there they should be located to minimize hu- ment, since many of the companies oper- are many other places around the world man health impacts. ating in Sumatra are based in Singapore. that, like Sumatra, are experiencing rapid “If we want to plan our fires, let’s plan Perhaps a tax would encourage the com- deforestation and health-destroying air them in regions that don’t affect the big panies to clean up their act. pollution. By providing policy-informing cities,” Mickley said. “This is a nice tool “We want to quantify for the first time tools that illuminate both the value of for policymakers who want to put in rice ever, what are the public health implica- conservation and of improved health, the paddies or oil palms.” tions of land management decisions in researchers’ work could help more places Though much work remains until Southeast Asia,” Myers said. “To date those achieve clean air goals whose roots can be such a tool is in policymakers hands, the health implications have always been a traced back to findings in the Six group’s preliminary work has already sug- vague externality: If you grow more palm Cities Study.

Faculty Profile Laura Diaz Anadon

hen it comes to the world of alternative “The question is how much we should invest Wenergies, Laura Diaz Anadon brings an and how to allocate those investments,” she unusually broad set of skills to the table. said. “Right now, the United States invests A chemical engineer by training, Anadon is about $5 billion annually on energy research also an assistant professor of public policy at the and development, and even very conservative Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), a position that estimates of the potential benefits suggest it gives her unique insight into not only the science should be investing much more, on the order behind alternative energies but the policies that of $15 billion.” go into developing and deploying them. Though private investment will play a role in “I was at Cambridge University studying energy innovation, government investment multi-phase flow reactors and magnetic reso- has played a key role in developing technolo- nance imaging,” Anadon said. “I realized I was gies that are virtually indispensible in the mod- must answer is how to allocate their invest- very interested in science, energy and environ- ern world, Anadon said, and the same will likely ments across various technologies. Current ap- mental policy and wanted to conduct research be true for renewable energy. proaches for investment, unfortunately, take a in that area.” “What we know is that many of the energy piecemeal approach to making those decisions. That interest led Anadon to the Kennedy technologies we have today, and other non-en- “One question I have found interesting is how School, where in late 2007 she began conduct- ergy technologies, like GPS, stealth technology governments can make those decisions using a ing research on energy policy through the HKS and the Internet, have benefitted enormously more robust approach,” she said. “In the U.S. the aura diaz anadon diaz of l aura courtesy p h oto Science, Technology and Public Policy from government research funding,” she said. current funding allocation, for example, doesn’t program, while simultaneously working “Solar photovoltaics began in the 1950s in Bell focus enough on storage. If you’re investing a towards a master’s degree in public policy. Labs and were further developed in the context lot in solar, but you don’t also invest in storage, After receiving her degree, Anadon was ap- of the U.S. space program before government you won’t get the same benefits, so you need pointed director of the HKS Energy, Technology funding for R&D and deployment from the U.S. an integrated method to make those decisions.” Innovation Policy research group, and lectured and other governments enabled its application Anadon is also working on other technology in- at the Kennedy School before being hired ear- in terrestrial settings, leading to dramatic reduc- novation policy questions beyond R&D decision lier this year as an assistant professor. tions in cost. The U.S. and other nations also had making, such as understanding the sources of While she admits that recent years have seen a major role in the development of wind and technology breakthroughs, the evolving role of “a great deal of progress” in the development nuclear power, among other technologies.” publicly-funded R&D institutions, what transna- of alternative energy technologies, Anadon Increasing funding for research, however, is tional actors can do to accelerate innovation for said additional government support will play a only half of the equation. Given the uncertainty sustainable development, and how to manage crucial role in moving new technologies out of around the potential returns for any single tech- linkages between water and energy systems. the laboratory and into the market. nology, Anadon said the question government — Peter Reuell

Harvard University Center for the Environment 11 CHARTING CHINA’S COURSE Probing the nexus between environment, energy, & economic growth

By Jennifer Weeks

hina has been the world’s most na also needs to develop an economic of environmental studies, former Cpopulous country for centuries, growth strategy that is sustainable— HUCE director, and chair of the Har- but after several decades of rapid one that is not based on heavy govern- vard China Project noted, “Harvard economic growth, China has become ment spending, wasteful overuse of University has long been a center for something much more significant: a resources, or a skewed distribution research on all aspects of China, in- global heavyweight with a massive en- of wealth. cluding its history, culture, politics, vironmental footprint. Today, China To explore linkages between China’s and geopolitical role. We hope that is the world’s second-largest economy, environmental challenges and its these lectures will not only bring ex- after the United States, and the world’s broader economic policies, the Har- perts to Harvard to consider China’s number one exporter, manufacturer, vard University Center for the Envi- future choices—they will also bring and energy consumer. ronment (HUCE), together with the Harvard faculty together from across This dramatic transformation Harvard China Project, an interdisci- the University for wide-ranging discus- increased China’s gross domestic plinary research project based in Har- sions of their own research.” product tenfold over 30 years, lifting vard’s School of Engineering and Ap- more than 500 million people out of plied Sciences, launched a new lecture Success, at a Cost crushing poverty. But wealth came series in the spring of 2014, “China China’s economic transformation at a price. Choking urban smog, arid 2035: Energy, Climate, and Develop- began when Deng Xiaoping assumed farmland and undrinkable water have ment.” “China today has about one- leadership in 1978, two years after the become widely-publicized hallmarks seventh of the world’s population, uses death of Mao Zedong. Mao’s major at- of the country’s dizzying economic more coal than the rest of the world tempts at transformative change—the growth. In 2006, China’s greenhouse combined, and produces about 30 Great Leap Forward (1958-60) and gas emissions surpassed those of the percent of the world’s greenhouse gas the Cultural Revolution (1966-76)— United States, and are roughly 50 per- emissions… It’s impossible to think had ravaged China’s economy, leaving cent higher than U.S. emissions today about the future of the global environ- the nation impoverished and demor- (although the average American’s car- ment without thinking about China,” alized. Under Deng, Chinese leaders bon footprint is still roughly twice as says HUCE Director Daniel Schrag. embraced a different goal: reforming big as that of a Chinese citizen). The first three speakers in the Chi- the economy to stimulate growth and Chinese leaders have pledged to na 2035 series brought perspectives opening up to global trade, while pre- fight pollution and shift to a more from the worlds of academia, inter- serving the Communist Party’s tight sustainable path, but that effort is national organizations, and politics: control on political power. The intro- just one aspect of a broader chal- Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in duction of market-oriented reforms in lenge. To become a stable and economics and former dean of Har- agriculture, special economic zones to prosperous society, experts widely vard’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences; encourage foreign direct investment, agree that China needs to develop Robert Zoellick, former president of and currency reform combined to help a more market-based economy, the World Bank; and Kevin Rudd, make China a manufacturing power- foster innovation and competition, former prime minister of Australia house, shipping textiles, electronics, and address pressing social prob- and current senior fellow at the Har- toys, appliances, lems, including rising inequality vard Kennedy School (HKS). Mi- and other products and an aging work force. But Chi- chael McElroy, Butler professor worldwide. From

12 Volume 6, Issue 1 istock p h oto istock Left: Air pollution blankets Beijing, China. Bottom: Michael Spence, former dean of Har- vard’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences; Nobel laure- ate in economics; and professor of economics at New York University delivered the inaugural installment of Harvard’s new series, “China 2035: Energy, Climate, Development.”

Innovation at the Harvard Kennedy School. “Many of China’s problems affect particular communities, but environmental degradation affects ev- eryone, whether they are rich or poor, urban or rural. And it’s a clear outcome of China’s development strategy.” Chinese citizens are becoming in- creasingly outspoken about environ- mental hazards. Riots have broken out in recent years over wastewater dis-

tock p h oto i S tock charges, heavily-polluting factories, and incinerators. “Many of China’s problems affect particular communities, The government has responded to some concerns. For example, it started but environmental degradation affects everyone. And its releasing data on levels of fine particu- a clear outcome of China’s development strategy.” late air pollution in major cities after activists obtained the same informa- 1978 through 2010, China’s economy ies, especially in industrialized north- tion from foreign sources—including grew at an average rate of nearly 10 ern China, often are swathed in dense the U.S. Embassy in Beijing—and percent annually, compared to typical smog, caused mainly by emissions from called on their government to publish rates of two or three percent in wealthy coal and oil combustion. Water sup- its data. nations. In 2010, China surpassed plies in many Chinese cities are heavily “Public opinion does play a role, and Japan as the world’s second-largest polluted, and a 2014 Chinese govern- the leadership is trying to respond to economy, with a gross domestic prod- ment study concluded that one-fifth of people’s concerns,” says Saich. uct of nearly $5 trillion. China’s farmland is contaminated with These shifts triggered a wave of ur- cadmium, nickel, arsenic and other Transition or Trap? banization. Millions of workers moved toxic materials. China has reached a stage in its de- from the countryside to urban areas in These environmental problems velopment that economists call the search of manufacturing and construc- directly threaten China’s economic middle-income transition. Low-income tion jobs. In 1978, no city in China development and political stability. countries have advantages that enable had more than 10 million people, and The Ministry of only two had more than five million. Environmental By 2010, six cities had populations Protection es- over 10 million, and ten more had timated that in populations larger than five million. 2010 pollution Now China faces another dramatic cost the nation transition. Developing countries can about $230 bil- sustain high economic growth by lion, equal to 3.5 spending heavily at home, as China’s percent of its gross government has done over the past sev- domestic product. eral decades to build up high-priority “It’s a crucial issue sectors like energy and manufacturing. for Chinese lead- But eventually this approach yields ers,” says Anthony diminishing returns. “High investment Saich, Daewoo and exports have been the engines of professor of in- growth, but this model has run its ternational affairs course,” said economist Michael Spence and director of in the inaugural China 2035 lecture. the Ash Center Pollution and resource scarcity are for Democratic

also stressing the economy. Major cit- Governance and S tep h anie M itc e ll / S ervices Ph oto Harvard

Harvard University Center for the Environment 13 istock p h oto istock One question is how China will manage urbanization. In March 2014, the Chinese government released a $6.8 trillion plan for increasing the population living in cities from 54 percent today to 60 percent by 2020.

and economic inequality; and fiscal reforms to ensure that government has enough resources.“These reforms af- fect every industry in China,” says Dale Jorgenson, Morris university professor at the Harvard Kennedy School. “I think that China will be successful, but it will be very challenging.” One question is how China will manage urbanization. In March 2014, the Chinese government released a them to grow quickly when they start far-reaching changes in many areas. $6.8 trillion plan for increasing the to develop. They have abundant low- China 2030, a 2013 report produced fraction of the population living in cost labor, which makes their products jointly by experts from the World Bank cities from 54 percent today to 60 per- competitive, and can sell their goods and China, outlines changes required cent by 2020. The plan acknowledged into vast global markets. And they to put China on a stable growth path. that urban growth had been poorly can import knowledge and technology They include: economic reforms to managed, generating congestion and from abroad rather than developing support a more market-based economy; sprawl, and called for better planning industries and skilled work forces from policies to promote innovation; incen- and investments in mass transporta- scratch. tives and regulations to spur green tion and affordable housing. “By far But as nations reach middle-income development; policies to reduce social the most important reforms are those levels, these advantages fade and growth slows. As workers move from farming to industry, wages rise and the country’s goods become less competi- tive abroad. To sustain growth, countries need to develop a prosperous consumer class at home that will generate economic de- mand. They also need to innovate in- stead of depending on imported tech- nology and knowledge, and develop higher-value goods and services. Countries that fail to evolve get stuck at this level, a pattern that some experts call the middle-income trap. To main- tain growth, China will have to make

Top: Michael McElroy, Butler professor of envi- ronmental studies, chair of the Harvard China Project, and co-organizer of the new China 2035 series. Bottom: Anthony Saich, Daewoo professor of international affairs and director of the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation at the Harvard Kennedy School. oto services / kris snibbe services p h oto Harvard

14 Volume 6, Issue 1 use l press - E ditoria A ssociated that involve integrating the urban and Barriers to Change Top: The haze in Fuyang city, in central China’s rural population, which will require Many of the structural changes on Anhui province, impacts morning Tai Chi practice. considerably more than two decades as China’s agenda will affect its energy Below: A graph depicting the rapid increase of coal China continues to urbanize,” says Jor- and environmental profile directly or consumption and production in China. genson. “Most economic growth will be indirectly. For example, the Chinese concentrated in urban areas, which will economy distorts the prices of energy require continued infrastructure invest- and natural resources—subsidies make tion of coal, oil, and natural gas, as well ments on a massive scale.” fossil fuels, electricity and water artifi- as electricity,” says Jorgenson. William Kirby, Spangler Family cially cheap, so they are overused. And Another priority is reforming and professor of business administration their prices do not reflect social and restructuring state-owned enterprises and Chang professor of China studies environmental costs associated with us- (SOEs), large firms controlled by the at Harvard Business School, is skepti- ing them, such as widespread illnesses central government or by local or re- cal of promises to make urbanization caused by air pollution. “China needs gional governments. SOEs are a pillar more people-centered. “Urbanization to move toward a market-based alloca- of China’s socialist system. Many are has happened without a lot of central planning until now, and it has worked reasonably well up to a point, although the large numbers of migrant workers living around cities are second-class citizens without access to schools or health care,” Kirby says. “The idea that China will now move even more people to cities in a planned way terrifies me.” “This is a government whose most A dministration catastrophic moves have been large- scale social engineering projects,” Kirby observes. “If you look at what happened to the millions of people dis-

located by the Three Gorges Dam proj- I nformation U . S E nergy ect, it doesn’t make you confident.”

Harvard University Center for the Environment 15 Right: Chris Nielsen, executive director of the Harvard China Project. Bottom: Dale Jorgenson, Morris university professor at the Harvard Kennedy School. protected against competition and re- ceive preferential access to capital and raw materials. Even so, they are much less productive than private businesses. They also retain a large share of their profits, although the central govern- ment announced at a plenum meeting late last year that the largest SOEs would increase their contributions to China’s developing social security sys- tem over the next several years. Many of China’s heaviest polluters are SOEs, including large oil, coal, electricity, cement, mining and steel companies. Since these enterprises pro- duce to meet quotas and are shielded Al ex G riswo l d from competition, they have little motive to modernize their processes. government decision-making.” respects on local government—which “All incentives over the past 25 years In April, the Chinese legislature in turn may rely for tax revenue and have pushed toward an economy that revised the nation’s environmental employment on powerful local indus- is heavily energy-dependent and inef- protection law to increase fines and tries that pollute—it is hard to foresee ficient,” says Kirby. “And state-owned penalties for polluting companies, and stronger enforcement.” With respect industries have a lot of influence over for local officials who tolerate heavy to state-owned enterprises, Alford says, polluters. This “I don’t foresee a radical improvement step followed unless Chinese authorities demonstrate on Prime Min- by action that they value a cleaner envi- ister Li Keq- ronment as much as they value revenue iang’s pledge generation.” in March to One area in which the government “declare war” has pushed SOEs toward cleaner tech- on pollution. nology is renewable energy. To meet But it remains its enormous electricity needs, China to be seen how has invested heavily in solar, wind, and stringently the hydropower. Today renewables gener- new law will be ate about 8 percent of China’s electric applied. power, and the government wants to “Enforcing increase their share to 15 percent by environmental 2020. In 2012 and 2013, China invest- law is an ongo- ed more money in renewable energy ing challenge— than any other nation worldwide. indeed, it’s a “China’s five major state-owned growing issue power companies all have institutes in some parts focusing on clean energy, and they’re of the country,” trying to develop expertise,” says Chris says William Nielsen, executive director of the Har- Alford, Stimson vard China Project (for more on the professor of law. China Project, see related story on p. “So long as lo- 8). “They’re acquiring assets world- cal environmen- wide. For example, the Three Gorges tal protection Company has bought into a major bureaus and Portuguese utility with large renewable local courts de- capacities, not only in Europe but also pend financially in the U.S. Globalization is probably

ourtesy of D a lE Jorgenson C ourtesy Ph oto and in other helping some of these companies diver-

16 Volume 6, Issue 1 lines through 2020. “Now… is the time,” urged Rudd, “for both political leaders and policy leaders in the climate change policy space to engage our Chi- nese friends.” Henry Lee, senior lecturer and Jaidah Family director of the Environment and Natural Resources Program at the Harvard Kennedy School, agrees with Rudd on timing and is leading an initiative to analyze the interaction of environmental and energy policies in China along with scholars from Ts- inghua University and officials from Chinese government agencies. In Lee’s view, Chinese leaders are serious about reducing the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions. “They are much more sensi- tive to this issue than they were five years ago. I expect that their next five- year plan will include a comparatively Harvard Law S c h oo l Law Harvard strong climate policy,” says Lee. sify and figure out how to build more Green Prospects grid capacity.” China’s green plans extend far beyond Top: William Alford, Stimson professor of law at But top-down mandates have their wind power. The 12th Five Year Plan, the Harvard Law School. Bottom: William Kirby, limits. China has more installed wind which runs from 2011 through 2015, Spangler Family professor of business adminis- generating capacity than any other na- set ambitious targets for reducing en- tration and Chang professor of China studies at tion—more than 91 gigawatts (GW) ergy consumption in absolute terms the Harvard Business School. as of 2013, followed by the United States and per unit of (61 GW), Germany (35 GW), and gross domestic Spain (23 GW). As recently as 2010, product, cutting however, up to one-third of Chinese tur- emissions of ma- bines were not connected to local power jor air pollutants, grids. “They built a lot of wind power using water more in a short period because companies efficiently and were given capacity targets, so they went increasing forest crazy and developed faster than the grid, cover. which reflects the way that the govern- And as former ment mandates changes,” says Nielsen. Australian prime Today most of those turbines are minister Kevin linked up, but the swift scaling up of Rudd noted in the wind industry poses other chal- his China 2035 lenges. The grid has to be managed to lecture, China is accommodate a growing share of inter- currently prepar- mittent power. And in winter, clean and ing carbon inten- effectively costless wind power some- sity targets for the times has to be curtailed because coal- 13th Five Year fired plants must operate to provide Plan, which will heat to buildings, as well as electricity. set policy guide- To meet its enormous electricity needs, China has invested heavily in solar, wind, and hydropower. Today renewables gen- erate about 8 percent of China’s electric power, and the government wants to in- crease their share to 15 percent by 2020. / step h anie mitc e ll services p h oto Harvard

Harvard University Center for the Environment 17 Adopting carbon taxes and other market-based pricing would be a major shift for Chinese leaders...But many observers say China is willing to experiment to achieve high-priority goals.

Maintaining high employment is an As China continues to urbanize, overriding goal for China’s leaders, insights from the fields of green build- so environmental reforms could lose ing and sustainable planning could momentum if they are perceived to make its new cities more livable. be slowing economic growth. But Lee “Urban growth in China has put enor- does not believe the current govern- mous pressure on natural resources ment is worried about this scenario yet. and energy supplies, especially if you “I think they feel that they can resolve consider impacts from the construc- their environmental problems and tion industry as well as from building continue growing,” he says. “They also design,” says Ali Malkawi, professor of know there’s a global market for green architectural technology and founding technologies. They see South Korea and director of the newly-created Harvard Japan doing well in it, and they would Center for Green Buildings and Cit- like to be competitive too.” ies at the Graduate School of Design.

Faculty Profile Neil Brenner

eil Brenner grew up in small-town cen- of people, infrastructure and investments Ntral Florida and has since lived in New remains as important as ever, we should Haven (CT), Berlin, Chicago, Los Angeles, also be looking into the larger territories, New York City, and now Cambridge, but landscapes and networks that exist be- he’s wary of crediting his personal geog- yond these massive population centers, raphies with his interest in urban studies. but which figure centrally in supporting “Obviously, if you’re an urbanist, living in them. These vast hinterlands of extended dense urban areas can be a good reference urbanization, which Brenner calls “opera- point,” says Brenner, a professor of urban tional landscapes,” include everything from theory at Harvard’s Graduate School of logistics and communications systems to Design (GSD). “But so much of my work has the colossal infrastructures that supply been animated by broader theoretical and energy, materials, water and food to the conceptual concerns, rather than a place- world’s cities—all of which have massive based investigation.” socio-environmental consequences on a He notes the work of the French social planetary scale. theorist Henri Lefebvre and urban ge- This is one of the major topics Brenner ex- show how these apparently remote, empty ographer David Harvey as guideposts in plores in the Urban Theory Lab, a research places are actually zones of intense socio- his academic career, leading him from an collective he has established at the GSD, environmental transformation that are interest in historical political economy into which employs concrete research projects intimately connected to the growth and questions about the changing geographies as a way to develop and foster new con- expansion of mega-cities around the world. brenner of capitalism, state power and urbanization. cepts on questions related to urbanization. “Suddenly, these places look like they are “To Lefebvre, social space is not a thing or a One current project has students critically filled with all kinds of infrastructures,” says container, but a process,” says Brenner. interrogate satellite images of the world Brenner. “They don’t look like New York This was a concept Brenner discussed taken at night, in which bright clusters of City or Mumbai or Lagos. But they don’t at his inaugural lecture at Harvard in No- lights are commonly understood to repre- look remote anymore—they are parts of vember 2011, where he greeted students sent the global fabric of urbanization. “Us- a planetary urban fabric.” Brenner and his with a presentation that argued that the ing this map, you can see what seem to be research team are developing these ideas field of urban studies—understood as the a bunch of empty spaces,” says Brenner— in various projects, several of which re- of nei l courtesy Lab- GSD . Ph oto Th eory exclusive investigation of specific settle- including dark swaths in the Amazon, the frame the debate on urban “sustainability” ment areas labeled as “cities”—has today Sahara desert, Siberia and the Himalayas. beyond the city boundaries to consider the become obsolete. “It’s a strong and polemi- But his students have started producing operational landscapes of urbanization on cal formulation,” says Brenner. He explains: counter-visualizations—everything from a planetary scale. While studying the spatial agglomeration maps to three-dimensional diagrams—that — Dan Morrell atsikis, U rban G rap h ic: N ikos K atsikis,

18 Volume 6, Issue 1 Page 18, Left: Kevin Rudd, former Australian prime minister, delivers an installment of the China 2035 series. Page 19, Right: Ali Malkawi, professor of architectural technology and found- ing director of the Harvard Center for Green Buildings and Cities, Graduate School of Design. Page 19, Bottom: Henry Lee, senior lecturer and Jaidah Family director of the Environment and Natural Resources Program at HKS.

“The sheer number of buildings that will be constructed in the next several decades makes China an important focus” for green design and planning. China has a few hundred build- ings, mainly in large cities, that have been certified green by several rat- ing systems, including some that are not designed for China. “There are a few showcase projects, but you don’t see the basic concepts being applied

widely,” says Malkawi. And some and cities center for green bui l dings h arvard early projects that were intended to be models failed or were never built. But which started running just six years and conventional air pollutants. If tax in Malkawi’s view, Chinese leaders are ago and now carries more passengers revenues were “recycled” back into the serious about making cities more than Chinese domestic airlines. “As economy to reduce existing tax rates, sustainable. new cities are being designed and the carbon tax would only reduce “They are looking at European and built in China, a great opportunity is economic growth slightly, and this U.S. experiences with urban devel- presented to create new models in the effect would be more than offset by opment and transportation, and are area of green buildings and cities that the health benefits of reducing air thinking about how to make systems has the potential to improve upon pollution. like mass transport adequate for the current practices around the world,” Adopting carbon taxes and other coming decades,” according to Mal- says Malkawi. market-based pricing mechanisms kawi. As an example of what China is The methods that Chinese leaders would be a major shift for Chinese capable of accomplishing, he points use to promote green development authorities, who rely mainly on to the nation’s high-speed rail system, will be as important as the goals they command-and-control measures to set. Economist regulate the economy. But many ob- Jorgenson is servers say that Chinese leaders are encouraged willing to experiment to achieve high- that the current priority goals. “Chinese authorities five-year plan are much more open than many other discusses the societies are to saying, ‘How does this possibility of work elsewhere?’” said former World pricing carbon Bank president Robert Zoellick in his and introducing China 2035 lecture. That may reflect taxes on pollu- an authoritarian government’s ability tion and natural to impose policies from above, but it resource use. In also echoes Deng Xiaoping’s pragmatic a recent article, approach. Invoking a Chinese say- Jorgenson and ing, Deng called the reforms that he Chinese coau- launched without a blueprint “crossing thors contend a river by feeling the stones.” that China “The entire world is struggling with could use a car- the question of how you make the bon tax as an switch from carbon-rich fuels to some- effective tool thing carbon-free,” says McElroy. “But to reduce both one of the most important questions greenhouse for the planet is: What choices will gas emissions China make?”

Harvard University Center for the Environment 19 Introducing the 2014-16 Environmental Fellows

he Center for the Environment extends a 2014. Tim will work with Eli Tziperman of the contexts to support new biodiversity objec- Twarm welcome to its incoming cohort of Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences on the tives. Arguing that these new conservation Environmental Fellows, who will begin their interaction between clouds and sea ice in practices are remaking not just environmen- research appointments at the Center this the Arctic, in climates tal knowledge and policies but materially fall. Fellows work for two years with Harvard that are warmer than reshaping environments themselves, this faculty members to advance research on a present. His project has research provides a framework for evaluat- wide variety of environmental issues and application to warmer ing the heterogeneous and often surprising strengthen connections across the Universi- climates of the distant consequences of conservation interventions ty’s academic disciplines. Fellows also meet past, as well as climates worldwide. twice a month for Fellows dinners, which of the future. Tim will bring them together with a larger, diverse also explore the po- Yige Zhang is a geochemist interested group of Harvard faculty for discussions on tential for the formation of hurricane-like in understanding how the Earth evolved environmental issues. These dinners intro- storms over a warmer Arctic ocean that has chemically and using various geochemical duce the Fellows to Harvard faculty while lost much of its sea ice; such storms would tools to study climate change of the geo- at the same time helping to build a faculty be highly relevant to the impacts of climate logical past. He earned his B.S. in geochem- community in environmental studies across change on both human and natural systems istry at Nanjing University, a M.S. in Marine disciplinary and School lines. Visit our web- in the future Arctic. Sciences from the University of Georgia, and site, www.environment.harvard.edu, to learn his M. Phil. and Ph.D. in more about the Environmental Fellows pro- Zoe Nyssa studies the emergence and con- Geology and Geophys- gram, or to apply to join the 2015-17 cohort. temporary practices of conservation biology ics from Yale University. in order to evaluate their impact globally on Yige will be working Marie-Abèle Bind is an environmental bio- endangered species. She earned her Hon. with Ann Pearson from statistician interested in health effects from B.Sc. in Physics and Astronomy at the Uni- the Department of environmental exposures. She earned an versity of Toronto, an M.A. at the University Earth and Planetary Sci- M.Sc. in Engineering in of Minnesota, and a Ph.D. in the Conceptual ences. He plans to de-

2007 at one of France’s and Historical Studies of Science at the velop improved atmospheric CO2 estimates Grandes Ecoles. She University of Chicago. Zoe will work with in the Miocene, using organic geochemistry then received a M.Sc. in Sheila Jasanoff in the Program on Science, methodologies and novel approaches to Environmental Health Technology and Society isotope-ratio mass spectrometry. His goal

in a one-year intensive at the Harvard Kennedy is to resolve the Miocene CO2 climate sen- program at the Cyprus School. Comparing sitivity “paradox,” an issue confronting his Institute associated conservation-oriented field in which current reconstructions show with the Harvard School of Public Health. In programs in the U.S., a puzzling relationship between stable, or

2014 she received a dual doctor of science Australia, Britain, Can- even increased CO2 concentrations during (Sc.D.) degree in Environmental Health and ada, and Germany, the substantial surface seawater cooling. Biostatistics from the Harvard School of Pub- project tracks the dis- lic Health. Marie will work with Donald Rubin ciplinary re-organizations of conventional of the Department of Statistics to explore ecological science in different institutional how temperature increases due to cli- mate change will impact cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, especially Outgoing 2012-14 Environmental Fellows in susceptible populations. She will also examine epigenomics data with Four Environmental Fellows concluded the goal of identifying new biological their second year of the program. They mechanisms involved in producing are (back row, left to right): Giuseppe Torri, adverse health effects from higher a theoretical physicist who worked with temperatures. Zhiming Kuang and Daniel Jacob; Chiara Lo Prete, an energy economist who worked Tim Cronin is a climate scientist in- with William Hogan; Jessica LaRocca, an en- terested in the interactions between vironmental toxicologist who worked with clouds, sea ice, and severe storms in Karin Michels; and Nathan Black, a political a warmer Arctic. Tim earned a B.A. in scientist who worked with Robert Bates. Physics from Swarthmore College in Continuing Fellows are in the back row (left 2006, and received a Ph.D. in Climate to right): Pedram Hassandazeh, Nathaniel Physics and Chemistry from MIT in June Mueller, Danielle Medek, and Charles Willis.

20 Volume 6, Issue 1 New Secondary Field in Energy and Environment

he Environmental Science and Public no field that is not relevant to this issue.” energy and environmental issues.” TPolicy (ESPP) program, in coordina- Students have the opportunity to explore The secondary field requires four half tion with the Harvard University Center for the field from broad disciplinary perspectives, courses, including a choice of foundational the Environment, is launching a new Sec- including how these perspectives intersect courses that feature the intersection of en- ondary Field in Energy and Environment and inform one another. For example, a stu- ergy and environment, as well as upper-level (E&E) starting in the fall of 2014. Drawing dent concentrating in English may wish to courses grouped into either social sciences/ on the continuing commitment of the Uni- increase their knowledge of the environment humanities, or natural sciences/engineering versity to support research and education on and energy from the perspectives of environ- categories. The broad reach of the field will the climate-energy challenge, the new E&E mental literature or history. A student study- enhance ties with other programs across the secondary field provides a unique oppor- ing global health may want to better under- University, and students will gain valuable tunity for Harvard students to understand stand the impacts of climate change on water perspectives through participation in a col- these issues as they prepare to take on posi- resources, nutrition, and human health. Or, loquium led by faculty members. The E&E tions of leadership in the future. a student in the physical sciences may want secondary field will also tap into the pool The new offering is designed to respond to to expand their training by improving their of ESPP faculty, as well as the community the broad demand from across the College understanding of climate dynamics and en- of nearly 250 HUCE faculty associates, to to increase students’ exposure to, and literacy ergy production to support their interest in serve as student advisors. in, the interdisciplinary nature of issues re- materials science and energy storage. “Our faculty and students have vital lated to energy and the environment. “Our “We’re excited to add this new offering to roles to play in confronting the challenge goal is to give undergraduates from every the ESPP program,” said Paul Moorcroft, of climate change, and we’re committed to possible concentration the opportunity to be head tutor and chair of ESPP and profes- advancing their work,” University President engaged in these issues because they affect sor of organismic and evolutionary biology. Drew G. Faust said in a statement. “This everyone here,” said Daniel Schrag, Hooper “We want to provide an intellectual forum new secondary field creates an important professor of geology and HUCE director. for students from a wide range of concen- new academic pathway for our undergradu- “People who study the arts, economics, his- trations to engage with the key questions, ates to engage with one of the most press- tory, psychology, philosophy…there’s really challenges, and opportunities intertwined in ing issues of our time.”

HUCE Consortium Reaches Enrollment Milestone

he HUCE Graduate Consortium on to working together in TEnergy and Environment reached a Consortium courses, significant milestone this year when the students in the program total number of students that have en- also have the oppor- rolled in the program surged past the 100 tunity to interact with mark. A large (the largest since the inaugu- one another—and with ral class) and diverse cohort of participants over 80 different Har- this past year brought the total number vard faculty members to to 118 students, demonstrating the con- date—through a weekly tinued popularity of the Consortium to reading seminar series. doctoral students across campus since its The success of the inception in 2009. program, reflected by its The Consortium aims to foster a com- 86 percent completion munity of doctoral students who are rate, is due in large part well-versed in the broad, interconnected to generous financial issues of energy and environment while support from a group of maintaining their focus in their primary HUCE donors, which discipline. The program engages students has allowed the Center to Al ex griswo l d from over twenty different departments in provide more than one eight different Schools—from urban plan- million dollars in fellowship support since The Center will welcome its newest group ning and engineering, to earth sciences and 2009 to Consortium students. The program of doctoral students in Fall 2014. public health—providing participants with also provides a research/travel stipend for a unique opportunity to gain exposure students to broaden their Consortium ex- HUCE gratefully acknowledges Robert Ziff to faculty and peers in other disciplinary perience even further through attendance at ’88, Phillip Duff ’79, and Karlo Duvnjak areas who share their interests. In addition relevant workshops and conferences. ’80 for their generous support.

Harvard University Center for the Environment 21 Entering an Age of Climate Change Beyond 400 ppm

half century ago on a Hawaiian moun- casion, Keeling presented the special HUCE Ataintop, atmospheric chemist Charles talk, “O Brave New World! Entering an Age David Keeling used what was then a pioneer- of Climate Change Beyond 400 ppm.” ing technology to make precise measure- The day began with a video message from ments of atmospheric CO2. The resulting former Vice President Al Gore, who warned “Keeling Curve” has documented nearly that without “immediate and decisive ac-

50 years of CO2 accumulation and fluctua- tion, the favorable conditions on Earth that tion tied to seasonal cycles, and has had a have given rise to the flourishing of human profound and lasting impact on the study of civilization could be at grave risk as we con- oto services / me l anie rieders services p h oto Harvard global climate change. Today, the research of tinue to build more crisis into the climate his son, geochemist Ralph Keeling, continues system for future years to come.” Below Left: The Keeling Curve. Above: Ralph Keel- to expand our knowledge of the factors influ- Daniel Schrag, Hooper professor of geol- ing, Scripps Institution of Oceanography. encing climate change. ogy and HUCE director, then introduced Keeling’s research is of particular relevance Keeling and the importance of his research, is not a climate threshold that will yield im- as we enter uncharted atmospheric territory, noting, “No human being—ever—has wit- mediate and dire consequences, it does sig- reaching an average carbon dioxide level nessed this atmosphere.” nify that our best chance to confront climate above 400 parts per million. To mark the oc- Keeling explained that although 400 ppm change has passed. “We’re way out of the natural range,” Keeling said. “If there’s a sym- Mauna Loa Observatory,Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii Hawaii Monthly AverageMonthly Carbon Average Dioxide Carbon Concentration Dioxide Concentration bol of us being at a dangerous level, it’s that Data from Scrippsdata CO2 from Program scripps co based program at the Scripps Last updated Institution may of2014 Oceanography Last updated May 2014 data from scripps co program Last updated2 may 2014 2 we’re already at 400 parts per million.” Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii 400 Keeling pointed to fossil fuel burning as a 400 Monthly Average Carbon Dioxide Concentration data from scripps co program Last updated may 2014 Mauna Loa Observatory,2 Hawaii major contributor to increasing carbon di- Monthly Average390 Carbon Dioxide Concentration data from scripps co program Last updated may 2014 oxide levels, and estimated that Earth’s fossil 390400 2 fuel reserves have the capacity to send atmo- 400 380 380390 spheric CO2 levels soaring to 2000 ppm. 390 370 On the positive side, oceans and forests act 370380 380 360 as carbon “sinks,” and have aided in counter- 370 360370 acting the effects of fossil fuel burning, and 350 halting the rise of CO would not require a 360 360 2 350 complete abandonment of fossil fuels. How- Concentration (ppm) 340 350 350 2 ever, says Keeling, even cutting emissions to Concentration (ppm)

340 CO 2

Concentration (ppm) 330

340 Concentration (ppm) 2 340 zero would likely be too late to counter the 2 CO

CO effects of accumulated atmospheric CO . 330 2 CO 320 330 He concluded, “There’s a loss of innocence 320 320 310 that we’ve already bought into this problem 320 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 310 Year deeply enough that the conversation has to 310 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 310 Year 19601960 19651965 19701970 19751975 19801980 19851985 199019901995199520002000200520052010 20102015 2015 change to being what do we do next.” YearYear 2014 Undergraduate Summer Research Award Recipients

UCE provides stipends for students to conduct environmental research each summer through the Undergraduate Summer Research Fund. This year, Hthe Center awarded 11 research assistantships with Harvard faculty and eight independent research projects to undergraduate concentrators in Or- ganismic and Evolutionary Biology, History of Science, Environmental Science and Public Policy, Social Studies, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Engineering Sciences, Economics, American History and Literature, and Chemistry. Summer research opportunities are made possible through the generous support of Bertram Cohn ‘47, Barbara “B.” Wu (Ph.D. ‘81), and Eric Larson (‘77). The recipients are:

• Oludamilola Aladesanmi ‘15, “Environmentally-Informed Policy • Michelle Chang ‘15, “BedZED: A Case Study in Sustainable Approaches to the Elimination of Malaria in the American South ‘Eco-City’ Community Development in the UK” from 1930 to 1951” • Laura Clerx ‘16, will work with Professor Missy Holbrook (Dept. of • Florence Chen ‘15, “Using Clumped Isotope Thermometry to Organismic and Evolutionary Biology) on “The Hydraulic Limits to Understand Historical Climate Change” Carbohydrate Transport in Trees” • Brian Chang ‘17, will work with Professor Diane Davis (Graduate • Victoria Elliott ‘16, will work with Professor John Spengler (Harvard School of Design) on “Transforming Urban Transport: The Role of School of Public Health) on “China Health and Places Initiative (CHPI)” Political Leadership (South Korea Case)” • Lydia Gaby ‘15, will work with Professor Ann Forsyth (Graduate

22 Volume 6, Issue 1 through a Q&A discussion with Harvard Entering an Age of Climate Change Beyond 400 ppm Environment @ Harvard China Project Chair Michael McElroy, A sampling of the academic year’s events Butler professor of environmental studies. Zoellick outlined several challenges facing Ongoing Series tor of New Mexico and chairman of the China, including air pollution, energy ef- The Future of Energy Senate Energy and Natural Resources ficiency, and a transition from an economy The Future of Energy lecture series drew Committee, closed the series with a look dominated by international trade to one leaders from business, academia and gov- at the challenges of creating a clean driven by consumer demand. ernment to campus to speak on finding energy economy. The series concluded with Kevin Rudd, secure, safe, and reliable sources of energy This lecture series is sponsored through former Prime Minister of Australia, who to power the world’s economic growth. generous support from Bank of America. explored the global impacts of China’s envi- In October, the series welcomed Eamon ronmental policies. Ryan, party leader of the Irish Green Party China 2035: Energy, Climate, Development and former minister for energy and com- This new series, convened in Spring 2014 Science & Democracy munications in the Irish government. He by the Center for the Environment and This series, co-sponsored with the Har- explored Ireland’s transition to clean en- the Harvard China Project, explores the vard Kennedy School Program on Sci- ergy over the past decade, and outlined its challenges China is expected to face over ence, Technology, & Society, explores plans for clean growth in the years ahead. the next two decades at the intersection of the benefits of scientific/technological John Deutch, Institute professor at MIT, economic development, demands for energy, breakthroughs and the harmful con- co-chair secretary of energy advisor, and and environmental degradation. sequences of inadequately understood former undersecretary of energy and direc- Michael Spence, former dean of Har- developments. The fall installment of tor of the Central Intelligence Agency, vard’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences and No- the series welcomed Chris Hansen, an visited Harvard in November for a dis- bel Prize-winning economist, kicked off the American Civil Liberties Union attorney, cussion on major challenges to America’s series by discussing China’s future economic for a discussion on the groundbreaking energy future, including managing energy growth prospects, political prospects without a national energy plan. leadership, and its handling The spring semester opened with of environmental chal- Granger Morgan, University and Lord lenges. Robert Zoellick, Chair professor of engineering at Carnegie former president of the Mellon University, who called for an World Bank and current improvement in energy forecasting to chairman, International allow for some measure of uncertainty. Advisors, Goldman Sachs S. Julio Friedmann, deputy assistant continued the conversation secretary, Clean Coal Program, Office of Fossil Energy, U.S. Department of Energy, Robert Zoellick, former presented an update on carbon capture president of the World Bank, and sequestration technology and its im- speaks with Michael McElroy plications for reducing carbon emissions. (bottom right), chair of Jeff Bingaman, distinguished fellow, the Harvard China Project,

Stanford Law School, former U.S. Sena- during a China 2035 lecture. / K ris S nibbe services p h oto Harvard

School of Design) on “Sustainable Cities: Strengthening Urban and Hutton (Graduate School of Design) on the energy history project Housing Policy in Mexico” “Plot: Excavating Central Park and the Empire State Building” • Sally Gee ‘16, will work with Professor Elizabeth Wolkovich (Dept. of • Ellen Robo ‘16, will work with Professor Dustin Tingley (Dept.of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology) on “Trees, Traits and the Future Government) on the project “Politicians Talking Science” of North American Forests with Climate Change” • Anna Santoleri ‘14, “Conserving America’s Youth: An Examination • Emily Kraemer ‘15, “Sustainable Groundwater Use in the Bahamas: of Nature, Education, and Class in the Civilian Conservation Corps” Evaluating Direct Surface Aquifer Recharge” • Tyler VanValkenburg ‘16, will work with Professor Alán Aspuru- • Rachel Moon ‘16, will work with Jonathan Losos (Dept. of Organismic Guzik (Dept. of Chemistry) on the project “Molecular Orbital Analysis and Evolutionary Biology) on “The Effects of Anthropogenic Habitat of the Best Organic Research Solar Cells” Change on Territorial Behavior in the Brown Anole Lizard (Anolis sagrei). • Deng-Tung Wang ‘17, will work with Professor Daniel Jacob (SEAS, • Joanne Nghiem ‘15, will work with Professor Chad Vecitis (School Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences) on the project “Modeling of Engineering and Applied Sciences) on “Conductive CNT-PVDF Surface Ozone Measurements from Meteorological Factors” Membrane for Capacitive Biological Fouling Reduction” • Sophia Watkins ‘15, “Deconstructing the Role of Finance in the De- • Ekta Patel ‘15, “Urban Population Vulnerabilities, Climate Variabil- forestation of the Amazon: An Analysis of the Brazilian Beef Sector” ity, and Environmental Governance: Surat, India” • Canyon Woodward ‘15, “We Must, Therefore We Can: Student • Matthew Ricotta ‘15, will work with Professors Kiel Moe and Jane Divestment Movements at Harvard”

Harvard University Center for the Environment 23 lawsuit that prevented Myriad Genetics public universities and corresponding from patenting two human breast can- funding; and the shifting meaning of the Comments cer genes. words “public” and “private.” Do you have a comment you’d like The spring installment featured Craig This series features panel discus- to share? Send your thoughts to Calhoun, director of the London School sions moderated by Sheila Jasanoff, the Center for the Environment at of Economics and Political Science, Pforzheimer professor of science and [email protected], for a talk on the role of social sciences technology studies at the Harvard and let us know if you’d like to in reaching the public; the mission of Kennedy School. continue receiving this newsletter.

Publication Note Geoengineering: Science & Governance Spring/summer 2014 This series, now in its sophomore year HUCE Film Screening and co-sponsored with MIT’s Joint Chasing Ice The Harvard University Center Program on the Science and Policy of HUCE opened the academic year with a for the Environment (HUCE) Global Change, explores the science, film screening of “Chasing Ice,” a documen- encourages research and education technology, governance, and ethics of tary exploring National Geographic pho- about the environment and its solar geoengineering. In bringing to- tographer James Balog’s mission to gather many interactions with human gether international experts, participants undeniable evidence of climate change. The society. By connecting scholars and explore the challenges and opportunities screening, co-sponsored by the Harvard Mu- practitioners from different of geoengineering, and analyze how seums of Science and Culture and the Office disciplines, the Center seeks to this technology could and should be for Sustainability, was followed by a panel raise the quality of environmental managed. discussion with Harvard faculty members research at Harvard and beyond. In October, the series began with a James Anderson (Department of Chemistry special event, “Debating Climate Engi- and Chemical Biology), Peter Huybers Environment @ Harvard neering,” featuring David Keith, McKay (Department of Earth and Planetary Sci- is a publication of the professor of applied physics and profes- ences), and Daniel Schrag (Department Center for the Environment sor of public policy at Harvard Univer- of Earth and Planetary Sciences, School of Daniel P. Schrag, sity and Clive Hamilton, professor of Engineering and Applied Sciences). Director public ethics at the Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics, Charles HUCE Special Lecture James I. Clem, Sturt University, Australia. In the spring, Peak Water: What Happens When the Managing Director, Newsletter Editor the series welcomed: Scott Barrett, Len- Wells Go Dry? Lester R. Brown Kellie Corcoran Nault, fest-Earth Institute professor of natural , president and founder of Communications Coordinator, resource economics, Columbia Univer- the Earth Policy Institute, visited Harvard to Phil Rasch Designer sity; , chief scientist for cli- discuss “Peak Water: What Happens When mate science, Pacific Northwest National the Wells Go Dry?” Brown’s presentation All portraits by Claudio Cambon Laboratory; and Lynn Russell, professor explored the future of agricultural systems, unless otherwise noted. of atmospheric chemistry at the Scripps which are threatened by improper irrigation Institution of Oceanography. and a declining supply of fresh water.

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24 Volume 6, Issue 1