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MEDIDATA SOLUTIONS (MDSO) BEST IDEAS LONG CALL January 16, 2015 DISCLAIMER

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MEDIDATA SOLUTIONS (MDSO) BEST IDEAS LONG CALL January 16, 2015 DISCLAIMER TOM TOBIN ANDREW FREEDMAN MEDIDATA SOLUTIONS (MDSO) BEST IDEAS LONG CALL January 16, 2015 DISCLAIMER DISCLAIMER Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut. Hedgeye Risk Management is not a broker dealer and does not provide investment advice for individuals. This research does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This research is presented without regard to individual investment preferences or risk parameters; it is general information and does not constitute specific investment advice. This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for errors, inaccuracies or omissions of information. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report are those of Hedgeye Risk Management, and are intended solely for the use of Hedgeye Risk Management’s clients and subscribers. In reaching these opinions and conclusions, Hedgeye Risk Management and its employees have relied upon research conducted by Hedgeye Risk Management’s employees, which is based upon sources considered credible and reliable within the industry. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for the validity or authenticity of the information upon which it has relied. TERMS OF USE This report is intended solely for the use of its recipient. Re-distribution or republication of this report and its contents are prohibited. For more details please refer to the appropriate sections of the Hedgeye Services Agreement and the Terms of Use at www.hedgeye.com HEDGEYE 2 PROCESS INVESTMENT PROCESS 1. Idea Generation - Relative and absolute performance - Valuation and sentiment - Battleground stocks and social media - Market research Fundamental 2. Fundamental - Build models and gather data - Identify Key Drivers - Filings, news, transcripts, blogs - Multiple/cash flow valuation - Management and capital allocation 3. Macro - Macro Monitor Macro - Database of over 1,000 time series data points and growing - Automatically calculates correlations and significance - Identify and track Key Drivers - Market Research - Custom surveys, product trackers and industry monitors - Field notes and Expert Calls SOURCE: HEDGEYE HEDGEYE 4 MACRO MONITOR WHAT IS IT? • Macro Monitor is an automated, web-based database that rank orders correlations and r-squared values across 1,500+ company specific and macro related time series • Isolates relationships that matter across straight, leading and lagging periods across STRAIGHT ONLY Macro1ZMH US Knee Revenue y/y growth % vs MACRO- 1Q07-1Q14 Rank Key Sig Dir Corr Series Name - Straight multiple durations 1 168 # - 0.96 PPI - All other surgical and medical instruments y/y growth % 2 188 # = 0.93 PPI - Hospital beds and specialized hospital furniture y/y growth % 3 1848 # + 0.85 HRM US Knee Growth (Market-Share Weighted Average) 4 1846 # + 0.81 US Ortho Average Growth (Knee, Hip, Spine) 5 1856 # + 0.79 US Knee growth y/y% - Bloomberg Industrials HELPS ANSWER TOUGH QUESTIONS 6 984 # + 0.77 EC Composite PMI Output y/y growth% 7 987 # + 0.77 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Markit Survey Ticker y/y growth% 8 1844 # + 0.76 US Surgical Average Growth (Knee, Hip, Spine, ICD) 9 1858 # + 0.76 US Hip growth y/y% - Bloomberg Industrials • What are the fundamental drivers of company, 10 841 # + 0.76 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures of Veterinary Serv For Pets 11 2868 # + 0.75 SPX Forward EV/EBITDA industry, or theme? 12 2864 # + 0.75 SPX Enterprise Value 13 989 # + 0.74 Eurozone Services PMI Markit Survey Ticker y/y growth% • What data are most relevant to fundamentals? 14 590 # + 0.74 Local Employment y/y growth % 15 906 # - 0.72 US PCE Index Dental Services SA y/y growth % 16 23 # - 0.72 CPI - Dental services y/y growth % • How does market moving data impact our 17 506 # - 0.70 Employment - Health care and social assistance y/y growth % 18 1053 # - 0.70 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (45-54) stocks? 19 536 # + 0.69 Employment - Pharmaceuticals and medicines 20 688 # - 0.69 Hires Level from JOLTS Report HEDGEYE 5 SOURCE: HEDGEYE THESIS THESIS | ROAD TO $65+ STOCK SCREENS LONG 1 Based on performance, earnings revisions and short interest. 50% peak-to-trough stock price decline driven by missed expectations due to deal timing, guidance adjustment and fraudulent wire transfer. We view recent weakness as buying opportunity given strength in leading indicators. KEY DRIVERS UP, CONSENSUS ESTIMATES DOWN 2 Macro Monitor identified several series as two quarter leading indicators of y/y ROC in Application Services Revenue. Combined, these key drivers point to a material acceleration in application services revenue through 1Q15 at a time when consensus sales and earnings estimates have been ratcheted down. $1.5 BILLION ANNUAL REVENUE OPPORTUNITY 3 S-curve model tracking 50% market share based on 4,000 potential customers. Average product per customer of 2.4 and 12 products available. $2.5 billion incremental market opportunity based on product per customer of 6.0. SOURCE: HEDGEYE HEDGEYE 7 BEAT & RAISE 2013 -> MISS & LOWER 2014 • Backlog and revenue growth accelerated in 2012/2013 and the stock went parabolic. • Stock peaked $68.2 on March 4, 2014 (up ~300% from 2012 closing price). • Missed estimates in 2014 largely due to deal timing. • Stock fell ~50% and short interest has tripled to 12%. DATA SOURCE: FACTSET, HEDGEYE HEDGEYE 8 M&A SPEED BUMP VALID EXCUSE “…I WILL NEVER GO OUT AND BLAME M&A ON ANYTHING. AND HISTORICALLY, THAT’S BEEN A POSITIVE TO NET NEUTRAL FOR US. BUT IF PEOPLE ARE IN THE MIDST OF TRYING TO PROTECT THEMSELVES AGAINST, SOMEBODY’S MAKING A RUN AT THEM, OR TRYING TO REPOSITION THEMSELVES, THEY WON’T BE AS AGGRESSIVE ABOUT TURNING ALL THE PROCESSES THEY HAVE INTERNALLY UPSIDE DOWN AND SPENDING A WHOLE BUNCH OF MONEY.” -TAREK SHERIF, CEO Q3 2014 DATA SOURCE: FACTSET, CLINICALTRAILS.GOV, HEDGEYE HEDGEYE 9 SHORTS HISTORICALLY HAVE BEEN WRONG SHORT INTEREST NEAR ALL TIME HIGH Historically, shorts have been wrong with next 12-mo excess returns having a positive relationship to the level of short interest today. Short interest is just shy of the 12% high reached in 2012. SOURCE: FACTSET, HEDGEYE HEDGEYE 10 CONSENSUS REVENUE ESTIMATES FALLING 4Q14 Revenue 1Q15 Revenue SOURCE: FACTSET HEDGEYE 11 SELL SIDE POSITIVE SOURCE: FACTSET HEDGEYE 12 USUAL LY DOESN’T MATTER… • Little relationship exists between sell side ratings and next 12-mo excess return. DATA SOURCE: FACTSET, HEDGEYE HEDGEYE 13 SUMMARY Medidata Solutions, Inc. $ 46.40 Financial and Valuation Summary Investment Thesis and Snapshot FY14 ends Dec '14 4Q14:E 1Q15:E 2Q15:E 3Q15:E 4Q15:E 2015:E 2016:E 2017:E Investment Thesis Snapshot Hedgeye Sales ($MM) 100.3 106.2 103.6 104.9 115.0 429.7 508.2 612.7 1) Secular growth story based on the adoption of cloud- Consensus ($MM) 91.1 94.2 101.3 104.7 110.1 409.0 491.0 577.3 based electronic data capture and clinical trial Variance % 10.2% 12.7% 2.3% 0.2% 4.5% 5.1% 3.5% 6.1% management solutions - challenged in recent quarters by poor results due to deal timing. EBITDAO ($MM) 26.6 23.4 25.2 27.2 31.2 107.0 138.7 182.2 2) Current screening long based on performance, Consensus ($MM) 20.6 18.1 21.4 23.9 27.5 91.0 127.0 156.6 sellside rating, and short interest. Margin 26.5% 22.0% 24.3% 25.9% 27.1% 24.9% 27.3% 29.7% 3) Key Drivers predict significant backlog, revenue and EPS upside next two quarters with an R^2 of 0.95. Hedgeye EPS ($) 0.27 0.22 0.24 0.26 0.30 1.03 1.31 1.69 Earnings catalyst February 6, 2015. Consensus ($) 0.22 0.17 0.23 0.25 0.29 0.93 1.22 1.60 Business Model Description Variance % 22.2% 34.9% 4.8% 2.5% 4.7% 10.6% 7.2% 6.0% - Target market includes pharmaceutical companies, academic research centers and governments. Value in Share 50% EV/Sales 8.5x 7.5x 6.5x increased workflow efficiency and lower cost to market for new drugs. 2,000 Price $ 60.8 $ 63.6 $ 66.6 - Significant cross-sell opportunity. 12 products available, 192,938 P/E 70.0x 60.0x 50.0x average product per customer (intensity) 2.4. mHealth and wearable technology attractive long-run opportunity. Price $ 71.9 $ 78.3 $ 84.6 ####### - Subscription model provides high degree of visibility into EV/EBITDA 40.0x 35.0x 30.0x revenue base. Near 100% revenue retention. Long-term Gross and EBITDAO margins in the high 70-s and mid- Price $ 71.9 $ 82.1 $ 93.0 30s, respectively. SOURCE: HEDGEYE, FACTSET HEDGEYE 14 KEY DRIVERS TRACKING CLINICAL TRIALS All Clinical Trials Genomic Clinical Trials “And if I look at year-over-year, the number of study-by- study deals… has increased by well over 20%. … we just have seen the number of RFI requests go up astronomically. There's just a lot of activity.” – CEO Q1 2014 ACCELERATION IN NEW CLINICAL TRIALS THROUGH 2014 Growth in new clinical trials has been positive with an acceleration seen late 2013 through 2014. Medidata’s revenue is dependent on the # of clinical trials being conducted at any given time. SOURCE: CLINICALTRIALS.GOV HEDGEYE 16 APPLICATION SERVICES REVENUE ROC MODEL Key Driver(s) - NIH Award # - Subset Y/Y - 0.87 R^2 / 2Q Lead - HRM Calculated “Annualized bookings grew 52% year-over-year for the - Updated Monthly quarter and are up 28% year- to-date over 2013.” - Clinical Trial Net Starts Subset – CEO Q3 2014 - 0.89 R^2 / 2Q Lead - HRM Calculated - Updated Monthly - MDSO Customer Y/Y % - 0.88 R^2 / 2Q Lead - Company Provided - Updated Quarterly s SOURCE: COMPANY FILINGS, NIH, CLINICALTRIALS.GOV, HEDGEYE MACRO MONITOR HEDGEYE 17 CUSTOMER GROWTH ROC MODEL Key Driver(s)
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