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COVID-19 on the Socio-Economic Situation in Uzbekistan: Income, Labour Market and Access to Social Protection

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COVID-19 on the Socio-Economic Situation in Uzbekistan: Income, Labour Market and Access to Social Protection Assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on the socio-economic situation in Uzbekistan: income, labour market and access to social protection Overview of crisis measures and ways to improve state policy Assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on the socio-economic situation in Uzbekistan: income, labour market and access to social protection Overview of crisis measures and ways to improve state policy September 2020 Copyright © International Labour Organization 2020 First published 2020 This is an open access work distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Users can reuse, share, adapt and build upon the original work, as detailed in the License. The ILO must be clearly credited as the owner of the original work. The use of the emblem of the ILO is not permitted in connection with users’ work. Attribution – Ms. Jasmina Papa and Mr. Azizkhon Khankhodjaev (ILO), Ms. Janna Fattakhova, leading national consultant economist, Mr. Sergey Chepel, econometric modelling specialist. Guidance was provided by Ms. Jasmina Papa (ILO). Assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on the socio-economic situation in Uzbekistan (income, labour market and access to social protection): Overview of crisis measures and ways to improve state policy. Moscow, Russia: International Labour Organization, 2020. Translations – In case of a translation of this work, the following disclaimer must be added along with the attribution: This translation was not created by the International Labour Office (ILO) and should not be considered an official ILO translation. The ILO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation. Adaptations – In case of an adaptation of this work, the following disclaimer must be added along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by the International Labour Office (ILO). Responsibility for the views and opinions expressed in the adaptation rests solely with the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by the ILO. All queries on rights and licensing should be addressed to ILO Publishing (Rights and Licensing), CH1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland, or by email to [email protected] ISBN 9789220327395 (print) , 9789220327401 (web PDF) Also available in Russian language: Оценка влияния COVID-19 на социально-экономическую ситуацию в Узбекистане (доходы, рынки труда и доступ к социальной защите): обзор антикризисных мер и направления дальнейшего совершенствования государственной политики (ISBN 9789220327418 (print), 9789220327425 (web PDF), Moscow, Russia: International Labour Organization, 2020. The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. Responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval. Information on ILO publications and digital products can be found at: www.ilo.org/publns. The study was conducted within the framework of the United Nations Joint Programme on Strengthening Social Protection in Uzbekistan, sponsored by Joint SDG Fund. Funding is provided by the United States Department of Labor under cooperative agreement # IL-26691- 14-75-K-11. 21.78 per cent of the total costs of the project is financed with Federal funds, for a total of 2325 dollars. This material does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the United States Department of Labor, nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the United States Government. Printed in Russia Contents 3 Contents Acknowledgments and Disclaimer.............................................................................................................................5 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................................6 1. Socio-economic profile of Uzbekistan ................................................................................................................8 1.1 Economyа .........................................................................................................................................................8 1.2 Demographics .................................................................................................................................................8 1.3 Employment and labour market .................................................................................................................9 2. Ways in which the global COVID-19 crisis is affecting Uzbekistan ..............................................................11 3. Survey of measures adopted by Uzbekistan to mitigate the effects of COVID-19 .................................13 4. Assessment of the risk from the COVID-19 crisis to industries and sectors of the economy .............18 4.1 Formal sector (based on input-output models and survey results from small and micro enterprises) ........................................................................................................................................18 4.2 Informal sector (based on survey results for individual entrepreneurs and the self-employed) .............................................................................................................................................. 25 5. Improving state policy for offsetting the impact of the COVID-19 crisis...................................................31 5.1 Stimulating the economy and labour demand .....................................................................................31 5.2 Supporting enterprises, employment and income ..............................................................................33 5.3 Protecting workers in the workplace ...................................................................................................... 37 5.4 Employing social dialogue in the search for solutions ........................................................................ 38 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................................................. 39 Annex 1. Socio-economic profile of Uzbekistan................................................................................................. 42 Annex 2. Adopted macro-economic and employment policies measures ..................................................49 Annex 3. Adopted measures on broadening coverage by social protection and support of private enterprise ...................................................................................................................................................52 Annex 4. Itemized cost of individual pandemic support measures for the general population, the economy and enterprises ...................................................................................................................... 55 Annex 5. Brief description of input-output modelling ......................................................................................57 Annex 6. Results of the flash survey of small and micro enterprises ...........................................................59 Annex 7. Results of the flash survey of the self-employed and individual entrepreneurs ...................... 66 4 Assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on the socio-economic situation in Uzbekistan CHARTS Chart 1. Economic response to various phases of the COVID-19 crisis ..................................................21 Chart 2. Top ten sectors by increase in new unemployment (thousands), basic scenario ............... 23 Chart 3. Projected decrease in economic activity (change in value added in percentages on the left) and sectoral structure of employment (in percentages on the right) ............ 23 Chart 4. Type of self-employment ranked by loss of jobs (asper cent of workers prior to quarantine) ..................................................................................................................................... 25 Chart 5. Share of self-employed (per cent) who have jobs by basic education attained and gender ...........................................................................................................................................26 Chart 6. Distribution of the self-employed (left) and individual entrepreneurs (right) by amount of lost income and gender (per cent) ....................................................................... 27 Chart 7. Distribution of self-employed (per cent) receiving social support and the actors from whom support was received (of the 18per cent who reported receiving it)............... 28 Chart 8. Sources of potential support as perceived by self-employed (per cent) ............................... 28 Chart 9. Distribution of the most important measures for legalizing
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