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The Wireless View 2017: Smartphones – a Slight Pickup in Growth Ahead

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The Wireless View 2017: Smartphones – a Slight Pickup in Growth Ahead Global (Americas & Europe) Equity Research December 6, 2016 The Wireless View 2017: Smartphones – a slight pickup in growth ahead KEY REPORTS IT Hardware & Telco Equipment: Tech Conference Day 2 Takeaways IT Hardware & Telco Equipment: Tech Conference Day 1 Takeaways NTNX: Disrupting in the right way Capex Update – Worst in Capex behind us; early signs of stabilization in U.S. and E.U. Asia Trip 2016 - IT Hardware and Telco Equipment – Wireless Fundamentals Firming Networking Update – Cloudification comes, amidst share disruption AAPL: Factoring in a muted 7 and the 8 super cycle HPE – Could be worth $31 in a complete break-up IBM – Investor Q&A – Unconvinced by outperformance AAPL – Services: Scaling the Annuity (Summarized Version) IBM – Roadmap Blues Research Team Kulbinder Garcha: Global Communications Technology Randy Abrams: Asian Semiconductors Achal Sultania: European Technology Hardware DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Smartphones Key takeaways – Smartphones – a slight pickup in growth ahead Smartphones – pickup in growth. We believe smartphone growth is set to pick up. After +1% growth in 2016, we see growth at 7% growth in 2017 followed by a recovery to 8% growth in 2018 in units (revenue growth will be +1%/+5%). The key issue is that new smartphone subscribers are set to decline (contributing ~35% of smartphone volume in 2017), with replacement units making up the remaining ~65%. Going forward, we see EM as the driver of smartphone growth. As a result, we slightly raise our CY17/18 unit estimates to 1.6bn/1.7bn. High end smartphone dynamics in play, Apple share gains to build around a super cycle. By price point, we continue to see the high end of the market maturing as the high end of the market (>$400) is essentially saturated with the majority of smartphone volume growth coming from the lower end of the market, and increasingly from the sub $100 segment. However, we see the high end of the market being driven by product cycles, with Apple having ~60% market share. As such, we believe the upcoming iPhone 8 cycle will have a dramatic impact on this market. While Apple has been losing smartphone unit share for some time, we note their high end share has expanded over the long term. Specifically, entering 2017, we see an opportunity to gain share in the high end driven by an iPhone 8 Super Cycle, along with Samsung’s recent missteps around the Galaxy Note 7. Based upon our installed base model we believe iPhone units will grow to 224mn/248mn in CY17/CY18. Wireless Infrastructure may be down 10%/3% in 2016/2017. Wireless capex trends are expected to trend down again in 2017 following a weak year in 2016. We now expect wireless capex to be down 10%/3% in 2016/2017 (vs our previous estimate of down 7%/3%). However, despite our downward revision for 2016, we do believe we could be close to a cyclical low. Specifically, we now note that while the declines in the US and Western Europe are set to moderate. Going forward however, we believe that this will be offset by headwinds from China accelerating, as we see signs of slowing LTE rollout in China across all 3 telcos, leading to 17%/7% decline in wireless capex in 2016/2017. This means that 2H16 wireless capex could be down ~25% yoy given high 1H spend. Stock view – different drivers. Apple (Outperform, $150) – We see an opportunity for Apple to gain high end market share and build upon the recent near term momentum around the iPhone 7. In fact, our supply chain checks indicate strength, with the mix of iPhone 7 Plus appearing much stronger than we currently estimate. Specifically, we believe a super cycle around the iPhone 8, and troubles in Samsung’s product lines should help drive unit growth. Given a growing installed base, a quickening replacement rate, high levels of retention, positive impact from installment plans, and a possibly robust iPhone 7 cycle, we look to add on any weakness. Nokia (Outperform, €5.35) – We acknowledge that the demand environment remains challenging in 2017, but we expect the top-line to start stabilizing from late 2017/early 2018, as we see capacity constraints in developed markets, LTE coverage expanding in EMs, and 5G trials in select markets. With gross savings of €1.7bn and net savings of €1.2bn, we see €0.33 of EPS power by 2018. CommScope (Outperform, $36) - While the Mobility segment’s visibility remains a concern, we continue to see strength in the Connectivity business, driven by FTTX rollouts in North America. As a result, the Connectivity segment continues to grow in the revenue mix of the overall business, and could support and drive improved earnings for some time. Motorola Solutions (Outperform, $90) - With organic growth returning to the business and solid cost management, we believe the business looks to be on track. Despite the company guiding to FX headwinds in FY17, the company still expects to grow. We believe the core government business should inflect LT going forward due to a healthy backlog, a dominant market share of government business in public safety, and a LT opportunity given the aged analog infrastructure and the LTE opportunity. As a result, we increase our TP to $90 (from $80) and maintain our Outperform rating. Blackberry (Underperform, $6) – We note that BlackBerry’s top line remains challenged as it shifts its hardware strategy. However, we remain concerned about the quality of some of the software acquisitions. Furthermore, we note that despite the generous assumptions for the software business, Blackberry has material downside. Currently, the business trades at a lofty valuation, with implied P/E of ~31x and implied P/E ex cash of ~23x, on our long term EPS estimate . Ericsson (Neutral, SKr45) – Despite restructuring, we struggle to see EBITA margins going up beyond 7.5% for next year in a declining sales environment, and hence maintain our Neutral rating. Dialog (Outperform €40) – Our supply chain checks in Asia indicate a steady state for Apple build plans for 2H16 and Q117. Beyond 2H16, we believe in a stronger replacement cycle for iPhone starting from 2H17 along with potential content increase for Dialog. Given our view that earnings can grow at 15%+ CAGR over the next 2 years, we reiterate OP rating. TSMC (Outperform, NT$205) – We see growth drivers emerging for TSMC long-term, specifically in HPC, automotive and IoT supplementing mobile where 10nm will be driven by Apple, MediaTek, and HiSilicon. Furthermore, GMs are approaching 50% with less cyclical volatility and we believe the cash flow generation should support a rising dividend. MediaTek (Neutral, NT$225) – While LTE is driving a revenue up-cycle for MediaTek, we believe MediaTek’s margin pressures could weigh on the stock. Additionally, while MediaTek’s market share in China remains in the 45-50% range, competitive pricing offsets decent units tied to emerging markets and low-end Samsung inroads. 2 Smartphones A pickup in global smartphone growth 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E CAGR 07-15 CAGR 16E-20E Global mobile subscriptions (mn) 3,866 4,495 5,175 5,780 6,337 6,665 6,945 7,360 7,538 7,861 8,293 8,557 8,819 23% 4% Global new subscriptions (mn) 616 629 680 605 557 328 280 415 178 323 432 264 262 Global mobile unit sell-in shipments (mn) 18.9% 16.3% 15.1% 11.7% 9.6% 5.2% 4.2% 6.0% 2.4% 4.3% 5.5% 3.2% 3.1% -71% 6% Global smartphone subscribers (mn) 280 367 558 894 1,387 2,005 2,677 3,321 3,838 4,370 4,862 5,343 5,803 44% 11% as % of total mobile subscribers 7% 8% 11% 15% 22% 30% 39% 45% 51% 56% 59% 62% 66% Global smartphone addressable market 5,834 5,834 5,834 5,834 5,834 5,834 5,834 5,834 5,834 5,834 5,834 5,834 5,834 Smartphone Effective Penetration 0% 6% 10% 15% 24% 34% 46% 57% 1 66% 75% 83% 92% 99% Net smartphone adds (mn) 83 87 190 337 493 618 671 645 517 531 493 481 460 33% -3% as % of total smartphone units 55% 50% 62% 68% 68% 61% 52% 45% 2 35% 34% 29% 27% 24% Replacements units (mn) 67 86 114 158 234 401 630 793 940 1,024 1,189 1,307 1,420 40% 11% as % of last year's smartphone subs 34.2% 30.8% 31.1% 28.3% 26.1% 28.9% 31.4% 29.6% 28.3% 26.7% 27.2% 26.9% 26.6% as % of total smartphone units 45% 50% 38% 32% 32% 39% 48% 55% 65% 66% 71% 73% 76% Global smartphone units (mn) 151 173 305 494 727 1,019 1,302 1,437 1,457 1,555 1,681 1,788 1,880 36% 7% % change yoy 22% 15% 76% 62% 47% 40% 28% 10% 1% 7% 8% 6% 5% as % of mobile shipments 11% 13% 19% 29% 42% 55% 66% 73% 74% 79% 85% 91% 95% Smartphone ASPs ($) 366 359 363 361 328 284 257 252 233 221 215 210 206 -3% -3% % change yoy -2% 1% 0% -9% -13% -10% -2% -7% -5% -3% -2% -2% Global smartphone revenues ($ mn) 55,115 62,149 110,596 178,619 238,431 289,220 334,137 361,653 339,423 344,141 360,874 376,002 387,592 32% 3% % change yoy 38% 13% 78% 62% 33% 21% 16% 8% -6% 1% 5% 4% 3% 3 Source: IDC, Credit Suisse estimates 1) LT Addressable Market for smartphone users is 5.8bn users, Current Penetration at 66%.
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