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Report Contains Important Disclosures, Analyst Certifications, Legal Entity Disclosure and the Status of Non-Us Analysts

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Report Contains Important Disclosures, Analyst Certifications, Legal Entity Disclosure and the Status of Non-Us Analysts 11 July 2016 Asia Pacific Equity Research Semiconductor Devices Asia Semiconductor Sector Research Analysts SUPPLY CHAIN RESEARCH Randy Abrams, CFA 886 2 2715 6366 [email protected] China smartphone chain: Some lift from better Jerry Su volumes and new markets 886 2 2715 6361 [email protected] Figure 1: China also shifts to new applications to supplement smartphones Semiconductor market size (US$mn) Auto, IoT, VR and wearables Pauline Chen % of smartphone market 120,000 80% 886 2 2715 6323 105,000 75% [email protected] 90,000 70% 75,000 65% Sam Li 60,000 60% 852 2101 6775 45,000 55% [email protected] 30,000 50% 15,000 45% Derrick Yang 0 40% 886 2 2715 6367 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 [email protected] Smartphones Auto IoT Wearables Kyna Wong VR Broad IoT % of smartphone 852 2101 6950 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research [email protected] We provide our bi-yearly update on China smartphone trends following MWC, Haas Liu CES Shanghai, and meetings across the chain. The market is healthier through 886 2 2715 6365 1H16 with unit demand up 10% YTD and supplemented by continuous content [email protected] gains and a push into IoT/connected home, auto, wearables and VR. ■ Key themes from our meetings: (1) China / Export mid-range smartphone demand healthy; (2) Processors see MediaTek take share but at aggressive pricing; (3) Smartphone platforms further upgrade camera, display, memory and processing; (4) China brands accelerate diversification into a diverse range of IoT products (wearables, home automation, drones and robots); and (5) VR proliferates across multiple Chinese platforms. ■ Chipset units offset by pricing. We project China-built smartphones reaccelerating from +8% YoY in 2015 to +14% YoY due to China subsidies and ramp from 30% 4G EM penetration. Chipset volumes are strong, but risks persist on pricing and overbooking, triggering a correction by 4Q16 with MediaTek units +35% YoY to a 540 mn annualised pace in 2Q16. ■ Display boosted by mid-end smartphones. Panels are seeing spot shortages and mid-range shift to FHD and high-end to WQHD or OLED. New technologies such as force touch, fingerprint sensor, dual camera and quick charge are the main selling points for mid-end smartphone makers. ■ Stocks: Favour content / share gains at firm margins. Top picks include Egis (fingerprint gains into Samsung/China), Himax (small panel ramp and AR/VR), Largan (rising specs/dual camera), TSMC (strong share/ technology) and Win Semi (RF content gains). While MediaTek's build has been strong, we keep a Neutral stance on pricing and inventory correction risks. Our China top picks include AAC (acoustic upgrade), Tongda (metal casing) and Truly (fingerprint module/camera upgrade). DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 11 July 2016 Focus charts and tables Figure 2: China-built smartphones pacing +14% YoY in '16 Figure 3: China smartphones reaccelerate in 2H15 / 2016 China brand units (mn) 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 15-18 CAGR China smartphones (mn) YTD YoY % Huawei 52.0 77.0 107.0 130.0 145.0 160.0 14% Oppo 11.0 30.0 40.0 75.0 90.0 100.0 36% 500 20% Xiaomi 18.7 61.1 72.5 68.0 71.0 75.0 1% 400 15% BBK/Vivo 11.2 30.0 36.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 30% 300 10% ZTE 40.0 48.0 50.0 54.8 58.4 63.2 8% 200 Lenovo 45.5 59.4 43.5 41.0 41.0 41.8 -1% 5% Lenovo's Moto 26.3 26.3 26.3 NM 100 TCL/Alcatel 17.5 39.6 40.8 40.8 45.7 52.7 9% - 0% Coolpad 35.0 43.5 28.7 30.1 32.7 36.2 8% (100) Meizu 3.0 5.2 24.8 22.0 23.0 25.0 0% -5% (200) Gionee 11.4 16.0 12.8 27.0 32.0 36.0 41% -10% Tecno 2.0 4.0 7.5 8.0 9.0 10.0 10% (300) Hisense 8.3 11.7 6.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 -13% (400) -15% Tianyu / K-Touch 13.3 11.2 4.3 2.0 1.0 - -100% (500) -20% Bird 2.1 2.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 -6% Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec G-Five 2.0 5.0 0.5 - - - -100% Others 193.1 278.9 302.0 297.7 301.7 288.8 -1% 2014 2015 2016 China brand units (mn) 466.1 723.1 777.6 888.7 951.8 1,000.0 9% 2014 YTD YoY 2015 YTD YoY 2016 YTD YoY Growth (YoY) 96% 55% 8% 14% 7% 5% Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research Source: MIIT, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 4: Spreadtrum launching a 16nm TSMC chip in 2H16, planning an Intel-based chip in 1H17 Spreadtrum Spreadtrum Spreadtrum Spreadtrum Spreadtrum Spreadtrum Spreadtrum Chipset SC9620 2-chip Shark SC8831G SC7731G SC9832 SC9860 SC98xx Technology 40nm SMIC 40nm SMIC 28nm TSMC 28nm TSMC 28nm TSMC 16nm TSMC 14nm Intel Multi-core Quad Quad Quad Quad Quad Octa Octa CPU Modem Only A7 A7 A7 A7 A53 x86 Network 4G 4G 4G 3G 4G 4G 4G Frequency 1.0GHz 1.2GHz 1.4GHz 1.5GHz 1.5GHz >2.0GHz >2.0GHz GPU Mali-400 Mali-400 Mali-400 Mali-400 MP2 Mali-400 Mali-T880 TBD Sampling 3Q14 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 4Q15 3Q16 1Q17 Ramp 4Q14 2Q15 1Q15 2Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 5: Samsung would add ~10% to MediaTek's EPS Figure 6: OLED growing display share at China brands Samsung potential for Mediatek in 2017 2016 2015 Samsung A/J Series (mn) 200 TCL ASP (US$) $9.50 Xiaomi Mediatek share 20% Coolpad Mediatek revenue (NT$ mn) $12,274 ZTE GM% (35%) $4,296 Huawei Incremental Opex (10%) $1,227 Lenovo Op Profit (NT$ mn) $3,069 Meizu Tax (NT$mn) $435 Gionee Net Income (NT$mn) $2,634 vivo Shares 1,545 OPPO Incremental EPS in 2017: $1.71 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Upside to 2017 Earnings: 10.7% Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research Source: MIIT, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 7: IoT semis could reach US$35 bn by 2020 Figure 8: Auto/IoT/VR/Wearables rising vs smartphones Sales (US$mn) YoY (%) Semiconductor market size (US$mn) Auto, IoT, VR and wearble $40,000 45% % of smartphone market 40% $35,000 120,000 80% 35% $30,000 105,000 75% 30% $25,000 90,000 70% 25% $20,000 75,000 65% 20% $15,000 60,000 60% 15% 45,000 55% $10,000 10% $5,000 5% 30,000 50% $0 0% 15,000 45% 0 40% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2017E Smartphones VR ASSP / FPGA Microcontroller Sensors Bluetooth Cellular Wi-Fi ZigBee Other Wireless Auto IoT Wireline YoY Growth Wearables Auto/IoT/VR/Wearable % of smartphone Source: Gartner Source: Gartner, IDC, Credit Suisse estimates Asia Semiconductor Sector 2 11 July 2016 China smartphone chain: Some lift from better volumes and new markets We provide our latest update on the China smartphone supply chain following updates from Mobile World Congress Shanghai, CES Shanghai, and meetings across the chain. We summarise themes including: (1) China/Export mid-range smartphone demand healthy; (2) Processors see MediaTek take share but at aggressive pricing; (3) Smartphone platforms further upgrade camera, display, memory and processing; (4) China brands accelerate diversification into a diverse range of IoT products (wearables, home automation, drones, and robots); and (5) VR proliferates across multiple Chinese platforms. China smartphone demand solid through 1H16 The China smartphone market has improved YTD, with IDC reporting China brands +7% YoY, Chinese tier-ones +9% YoY and MIIT reporting even more robust growth at +11% YTD and LTE +18% YTD. Factoring in export growth, we project China-built smartphones reaccelerating from +8% YoY in 2015 to +14% YoY, supported by the three China carriers subsidising LTE and 3G to 4G upgrades accelerating in emerging markets from only 30% penetration. Builds are very strong but we would monitor the risk of an inventory correction by 4Q16. Content upgrades also continue with MP count rising to 20% YoY to 10-11MP and several dual cameras launching from China brands in 2H, core migration up from 4 to 5.5-6 YoY, NAND up 50% to 22GB and display shifting to HD/FHD. Chipset units offset by pricing, mid-end lifts display Chipsets are not seeing meaningful benefits from consolidation and better unit growth, with Qualcomm and MediaTek in a fierce battle and Spreadtrum discounting 3G aggressively. MediaTek is gaining LTE share though has not cracked the flagships. Qualcomm targets refreshed high-end MSM8997/MSM8998 toward year-end on Samsung’s 10nm and its Snapdragon 600 back from 14nm to 28nm HPM to save cost.
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