Presidential Candidates 2000: Kemp Still

The arris Poll

THE HARRIS POLL #52 Thursday, October 30, 1997

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES 2000:

KEMP STILL FRONT RUNNER FOR REPUBLICANS

GORE -- IN SPITE OF CAMPAIGN FUND-RAISING -- LEADS GEPHARDT BY WIDE MARGIN

by Humphrey Taylor

In the contest to be the next Democratic candidate for the presidency, Vice President Al Gore leads his only rival at this time, House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, by more than three-to-one. However, many Democrats and Independents would prefer "someone else." Al Gore sustains this lead in spite of the damage that recent reports of his fund-raising activities have done to his standing.

In the race to be the next Republican presidential candidate, Colin Powell still leads by a huge margin, although many people think he will not be a candidate. When Powell is excluded, Jack Kemp leads the Republican contenders, followed by Texas Governor George Bush, Jr.

These are the results of a Harris Poll of 1,003 adults surveyed between October 15 and 19, 1997.

Some of the results of this Harris Poll include:

Vice President Al Gore has a job rating of 44% posi.tive, 54% negative, well below President Clinton but far better than Republican Congressional leaders Trent Lott or Newt Gingrich.

When asked to choose between Al Gore and Richard Gephardt as the Democratic candidate in 2000, bath Democrats (50% to 11 %) and

Louis Harris and Associates, Inc. 1 11 Fifth Avenue NYC (212) 539-9600 lndependents (38% to 17%) prefer Gore. However, 31% of Democrats and 38% of lndependents would prefer someone else.

If General Colin Powell is inchided in the list of Republican candidates, he has a huge lead (at 28%) over Jack Kemp (8%) and George Bush, Jr. (8%) among Republicans and Independents.

If Colin Powell is not included, Jack Kemp leads the field (15%) followed by George Bush (1 1%) and Steve Forbes (10%). However, none of them have more than a very modest following, and many people (31%) are not sure who they prefer.

Former Vice President Dan Quayle, who has raised a substantial war chest and recently visited New Hampshire, is in fourth place with 7%.

To state the obvious, .these numbers predict nothing; they merely reflect the current standings of possible candidates three years before the next presidential election.

Humphrey Taylor is the Chairman and CEO of Louis Harris and Associates, Inc. TABLE 1

VICE PRESIDENT GORE'S JOB RATING COMPARED TO CLINTON, GlNGRlCH AND LOlT

"And how would you rate the job (READ EACH ITEM) isfare doing -- excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Excel- Pretty Only Don't Posi- Nega- lent Good Fair Poor Know tive* tive** % % % Yo % Yo Oh

President Clinton 11 43 3 1 14 54 44

Vice President Gore 8 36 34 20 44 54

Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott

House Speaker Newt Gingrich

'Positive = excellent or pretty good. "Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 2

PREFERENCE FOR GORE OR GEPHARDT FOR DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE

Base: Democrat or lndependent

"The two Democrats most often mentioned as possible Democratic candidates for President in the year 2000 are Vice President Al Gore and House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt. Who would you like to see as the Democratic candidate -- Gore or Gephardt?"

CONSIDER SELF Total Democrat Independent Oh % Yo

Vice President Al Gore House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt Someone else Don't know TABLE 3

FAMILIARITY WITH POSSIBLE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES

Base: Republican or lndependent

"I am going to read you some names of possible Republican candidates for President in the year 2000. Are you familiar with (READ NAME) or not?"

All Familiar

O/o

Dan Quayle Newt Gingrich Colin Powell Pat Buchanan Jack Kemp Steve Forbes George Bush, Jr. Bill Bennett Christine Whitman

TABLE 4

FIRST CHOICE FOR REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE -- WITH COLIN POWELL INCLUDED

Base: Republican or lndependent

"Who's your first choice for the Republican presidential nomination in 2000?"

Total Republican Independent

Oh Oh Oh

Colin Powell Jack Kemp George Bush, Jr. Steve Forbes Dan Quayle Newt Gingrich Pat Buchanan Christine Whitman Bill Bennett Other Don't know TABLE 5

FIRST CHOICE FOR REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE -- WITH POWELL EXCLUDED

Base: Republican or lndependent

"Who's your first choice for the Republican presidential nomination in 2000?"

Total Republican Independent Oh Yo Yo

Jack Kemp George Bush, Jr. Steve Forbes Dan Quayle Christine Whitrnan Newt Gingrich Pat Buchanan Bill Bennett Other (specify) Not sure Methodology

d This Harris Poll was conducted by telephone within the United States between October 15 to 19, among a nationwide cross section of 1,003 adults. Figures for age, sex, race, education and number of adults in household were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is difficult or impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

Contact Louis Harris and Associates, Inc. 111 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10003, (212) 539-9697, for complete demographic details for the questions in this release.

FAX (212) 539 - 9669 Compuserve address: 76702,2063 Other E-mail: achurch @ Iha.gsbc.com