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Valuación De "The Boston Beer Company"

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Valuación De Universidad de San Andrés Escuela de Administración y Negocios Magister en Finanzas Valuación de "The Boston Beer Company" Autor: Tomás Aguerrebehere DNI: 92.830.069 Director de Trabajo Final de Graduación: Javier P. Epstein Buenos Aires, 27 de junio 2018 Índice RESUMEN EJECUTIVO ....................................................................................................................................... 3 DESCRIPCIÓN DEL NEGOCIO .......................................................................................................................... 4 HISTORIA ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 NEGOCIO ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 INNOVACIÓN ............................................................................................................................................................................. 13 FILANTROPÍA ............................................................................................................................................................................ 14 ACCIONES .................................................................................................................................................................................. 15 ANÁLISIS DE LA INDUSTRIA ........................................................................................................................ 17 MERCADO MUNDIAL ................................................................................................................................................................ 17 MERCADO DE ESTADOS UNIDOS ............................................................................................................................................ 19 DISTRIBUCIÓN .......................................................................................................................................................................... 24 CONSUMIDORES ........................................................................................................................................................................ 26 CERVEZA ARTESANAL ............................................................................................................................................................. 28 PROYECCIÓN A FUTURO........................................................................................................................................................... 31 COMPETENCIA .......................................................................................................................................................................... 32 5 FUERZAS DE PORTER ............................................................................................................................................................ 36 FACTORES DE RIESGO ................................................................................................................................... 38 COMPETENCIA .......................................................................................................................................................................... 38 VENTAS, RETORNO Y CRECIMIENTO ...................................................................................................................................... 39 LIDERAZGO DE EMPRESA ........................................................................................................................................................ 39 PRODUCCIÓN PROPIA Y DISPONIBILIDAD DE TERCEROS .................................................................................................... 39 DISTRIBUIDORES ...................................................................................................................................................................... 40 PROGRAMA DE CERVEZA MÁS FRESCA................................................................................................................................. 40 DEPENDENCIA DE PROVEEDORES .......................................................................................................................................... 41 ENVASADO ................................................................................................................................................................................. 42 COMPORTAMIENTO Y DEMANDA DE LOS CONSUMIDORES ................................................................................................. 42 CONDICIONES MACROECONÓMICAS Y FINANCIERAS ........................................................................................................... 42 ANÁLISIS FINANCIERO .................................................................................................................................. 43 RENTABILIDAD ......................................................................................................................................................................... 45 ANÁLISIS DE DUPONT .............................................................................................................................................................. 46 ESTRUCTURA DE CAPITAL ...................................................................................................................................................... 48 EFICIENCIA ................................................................................................................................................................................ 48 POLÍTICA DE DIVIDENDOS ..................................................................................................................................................... 49 ANÁLISIS FINANCIERO DE LA COMPETENCIA ....................................................................................................................... 49 VALUACIÓN POR FLUJO DE FONDOS DESCONTADOS (DCF) ............................................................ 51 SUPUESTOS ................................................................................................................................................................................ 52 COSTO DE MERCADERÍA VENDIDA (COGS) Y OTROS ........................................................................................................ 55 ESTRUCTURA DE CAPITAL ...................................................................................................................................................... 56 COSTO DEL CAPITAL PROPIO ................................................................................................................................................. 57 TASA LIBRE DE RIESGO ........................................................................................................................................................... 57 PRIMA DE RIESGO DE MERCADO ........................................................................................................................................... 57 BETA .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 57 VALOR TERMINAL .................................................................................................................................................................... 59 ÍNDICES ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 60 RESULTADOS ............................................................................................................................................................................. 61 VALUACIÓN POR MÚLTIPLOS COMPARABLES ..................................................................................... 62 COMPAÑÍAS COMPARABLES ................................................................................................................................................... 62 VALUACIÓN POR MÚLTIPLO EV/EBITDA ......................................................................................................................... 64 ANÁLISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD .................................................................................................................................................... 65 ANEXOS ............................................................................................................................................................... 67 BIBLIOGRAFÍA ................................................................................................................................................. 79 Tesis Maestría en Finanzas Tomás Aguerrebehere 2 ii. Resumen ejecutivo El siguiente trabajo tiene como propósito estimar el valor de la empresa The Boston Beer Company mediante los métodos de descuento de flujo de fondos (DCF) y múltiplos de valuación comparables. En el primer caso, se evaluarán las ventas y costos de la empresa en los siguientes 5 años y a perpetuidad de acuerdo con estimaciones realizadas, obteniendo un resultado basado en 3 escenarios posibles: base, optimista y pesimista. Para ello, se analizaron las operaciones
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