Pakistan Food Security Bulletin
Pakistan Food Security Bulletin Issue 4 – July 2015 – June 2016 September, 2016
The Pakistan Food Security Bulletin is produced by the Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) Unit of the World Food Programme as a contribution to periodic food security monitoring in the country.
Highlights
Total wheat production in Pakistan in 2015‐16 has been estimated at 25.5 million metric tons (MT), slightly higher than the 2014‐15 level of 25.1 million MT, showing a positive growth by 1.58 percent. Production of rice, the second main staple crop of Pakistan, has been estimated to be about 6.8 million MT milled basis, slightly less than the 2014‐15 production of 7.0 million MT, showing a negative growth by ‐2.7 percent. Household economic access continues to be the major constraint, with 66.7 percent of households being unable to afford the minimum staple‐adjusted nutritious diet with their current food expenditure. Staple food prices have remained stable. Prices of wheat and wheat flour in June 2016 negligibly increased by 1.0 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively, compared to the same time a year ago (July 2015). Significant progress has been noted in the return of displaced populations, with some 163,000 families have returned to their areas of origin during the period of March 2015 ‐ June 2016. However, 146,500 families are still remained in displacement, whereas the Government has announced a complete return by end of 2016.
Situation Overview
In 2015‐16, wheat (main staple) harvest of Pakistan stood at 25.5 million MT1, slightly higher than the 2014‐15 level of 25.1 million MT, while production of rice, the second main staple crop of Pakistan, has been estimated to be about 6.8 million MT milled basis, slightly less than the previous year’s production of 7.0 million MT. Limited food access remains the main constraint of household food security. According to a Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform (MoPDR) and WFP joint report on Minimum Cost of the Diet study (CoD, 2016), two‐thirds (66.7 percent) of Pakistani households are unable to afford the nutritious diet with their current food expenditure2. The latest report of the Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform, UNDP and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) suggests that every four out of ten Pakistanis live in multidimensional poverty3.
On a positive note, food prices, particularly of staples have stabilized over the last year, thus easing pressure on economic access, especially for the poor and food insecure households. With the improvement in law and order situation, a significant 1 3 number of displaced populations have been returning to FATA, with some 113,000 families reported to have returned in 2 2015 and 50,000 families in the first half of 2016. However, 146,500 families are still remained in displacement. Issue 4, 2016 Page 1 of 10
1 Economic Survey of Pakistan, 2015‐16. Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan. 2 Cost of Minimum Diet in Pakistan, 2016. Ministry of Planning, Development and Reforms (MoPDR) and WFP. 3 Multidimensional poverty in Pakistan, 2016. MoPDR, UNDP and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI).
Pakistan Food Security Bulletin
Minimum Cost of the Diet (CoD) – Pakistan Pakhtunkhwa (67.4 percent) and Punjab (65.6 In Pakistan, the major challenge is economic access or percent). In Islamabad, despite the households affordability of the poorest and most vulnerable to food, have generally better affordability, the non‐ coupled with poor food habits and preferences which affordability rate was still found among 31.5 determine the nutritional value of foods consumed. percent of households (Figure 1). Geographical distribution of non‐affordability by division is The Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform in presented in Map 1. collaboration with WFP has recently completed a study to calculate the cheapest possible cost of locally available diet that 3. Generally, non‐affordability is higher in rural areas satisfies all nutritional requirements (energy, protein, fat and than in urban ones. However, a large proportion of micro‐nutrients) of a household or individual. The study used urban households in all four provinces are still data of the Household Integrated Expenditure Survey 2013‐14 unable to afford the staple‐adjusted nutritious (HIES) for household food consumption, expenditure and diet. average household size to estimate whether current households’ expenditure on food is sufficient to afford a ABOVE THE SNUT DIET THRESHOLD nutritious diet. BELOW SNUT DIET THRESHOLD, ABOVE NUT DIET THRESHOLD BELOW NUT DIET THRESHOLD, ABOVE CALORIE POVERTY LINE The study calculated the cost for three diets: a) an energy only BELOW THE CALORIE POVERTY LINE 100.0% diet, b) adequately nutritious diet, and c) staple‐adjusted 16.7% 29.2% nutritious diet across 28 divisions in four provinces: 80.0% 34.5% 32.6% 1.3% 32.4% 2.5% Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Sindh, plus the 68.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.7% Islamabad Capital Territory. 60.0% 40.0% 78.4% 56.7% 64.4% 60.2% The aim of the CoD study was to: 3.4% 63.6% 20.0% Establish a nutritious diet that can be achieved 28.1% based on foods available in the local market ; 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 0.7% 3.9% 3.7% 4.7% Determine the affordability of various diets based on actual household food expenditure patterns; and
Estimate unaffordability at household level by Figure 1: Non‐affordability of a staple‐adjusted
division. nutritious diet (SNUT), nutritious diet (NUT), and energy only diet (i.e. equivalent to the Calorie Poverty Results of the study are produced for each of the Line) based on total household food expenditure at provinces involved and Islamabad. Disaggregation into the provincial level (Percentage of Households) urban and rural areas was done for all the studied divisions except Islamabad. It should be mentioned that the report presents the Following are the key findings of the CoD: minimum cost of these diets focusing only on the 1. Food expenditure of 67.6 percent of households is purchasing power without taking into account food below the staple‐adjusted nutritious diet threshold preferences, eating habits and intra‐household (SNUT). This means two out of every three distribution. Therefore, it is plausible that the actual households are unable to afford this diet with their costs for meeting nutrient‐recommended requirements current food expenditure. and the non‐affordability rates would be likely higher than that calculated in the study. 2. Balochistan has the highest prevalence (83.4 percent) of households unaffordable to the staple‐ adjusted nutritious diet threshold (SNUT), which is followed by Sindh (70.8 percent), Khyber
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Pakistan Food Security Bulletin
Map 1: Non‐Affordability of a staple adjusted nutritious diet by Division
Crop and Livestock Production Situation to the target set by the Federal Committee on Agriculture Crop situation and recorded a positive growth of 1.58 percent. Pakistan is an agricultural country. The sector contributed Wheat support price has been maintained from the 19.8 percent in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and preceding year at PKR 1,300/40 kgs aiming at providing absorbing (42.3) percent of the country’s total labor force. incentive to farmers to grow more wheat and achieve The agriculture sector growth is contingent on favorable production targets. However, significant geographic weather conditions. There is a strong relationship between disparities in wheat production exist across the country. agriculture and climate—temperature, precipitation, According to SUPARCO7, approximately three quarters (75 floods and other weather conditions that affect economic percent) of the national wheat production comes from performance including agriculture production, commodity Punjab, followed by Sindh (17 percent), KP (5.4 percent) prices and economic growth4. Pakistan has two cropping and Balochistan (3.3 percent) (Figure 2). seasons5, "Kharif" and ‘Rabi’. Punjab Sindh KP Balochistan Agriculture sector recorded a negative growth of ‐0.19 percent in 2015‐16 against a growth of 2.53 percent last 3% years. Since crops consist of over 37 percent of the total 5% agriculture production, the current negative growth of agriculture sector is mainly due to the ‐6.25 percent 17% negative growth of crops. Cereal production Wheat production 75% The wheat – major Rabi crop – production for 2015‐16 has been recorded at 25.5 million MT and was grown on an estimated area of 9,260 thousand hectares6 which is close Figure 2 : Wheat production by province (2015‐16)
4 Pakistan Economic Survey 2015‐2016 Ministry of Finance, GoP December and harvesting takes place from April‐May. Wheat, gram, 5 Pakistan has two cropping seasons, "Kharif" being the first sowing lentil (Masoor), tobacco, rapeseed, barley and mustard are major "Rabi" season starting from May‐June and harvesting takes place during crops. October‐December. Rice, sugarcane, cotton, maize, pulses (moong, 6 Pakistan Economic Survey, 2015‐16, Ministry of Finance, GOP. mash), millet (bajra) and Sorghum (jowar) are major “Kharif’s” crops. 7 Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission "Rabi" season, the second sowing season, begins from October‐ Issue 4 July 2016 Page 3 of 10
Pakistan Food Security Bulletin
Map 2: Pakistan wheat production per capita by district
encouraged farmers to substitute rice with fodder and Rice production maize. In addition, the heavy downpours in July 2015 also Rice is Pakistan's second most important staple and third affected paddy cultivation. largest crop in terms of area sown, after wheat and cotton. It accounts for 3.1 percent in the value added in agriculture Livestock production and 0.6 percent of GDP. Figure 3 presents the share of the Livestock is an important sub‐sector of agriculture in national rice production by province in 2015‐16. Pakistan. Nearly 8 million families are engaged in livestock production and earn more than 35 percent of their income During 2015‐16, rice crop was cultivated on an area of from this activity. It is often the only source of income for 2,748 thousand hectares showing a slight decrease by 4.9 the rural and most marginalized people in case of calamity, percent from last year’s area of 2,891 thousand hectares. and thus, has a great potential for poverty alleviation and Rice production remained at 6.8 million MT, indicating a fetch foreign exchange for the country. In 2015‐16, slight decline by 2.7 percent from last year’s record livestock accounts for 58.6 percent of the value added in production of 7.0 million MT. Punjab and Sindh produced overall agriculture, and 11.6 percent of GDP, similar to last more than 88 percent of total rice production. year (11.7 percent)8. The decrease in rice cultivated area is likely attributed to Major livestock products are milk and meat. During 2015‐ decreased economic returns to farmers on account of 2016, the gross production of milk and meat increased by declined rice prices both domestically and globally during 3.22 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively, compared to last year. Depressed prices and rising costs of production 2014‐2015. Punjab Sind KP Baluchistan Markets and Food Prices 9% 2% During the reporting period (July 2015 ‐ June 2016), the market prices in Pakistan remained stable. Prices of cereals and most food commodities with the exception of pulses 51% and non‐food commodities declined, mainly due to higher 38% production and reduced petroleum prices, which ultimately eased the inflation rate based on consumer price index (CPI).
Figure 3 : Rice production by province (2015‐16)
8 Pakistan Economic Survey, 2015‐16, Ministry of Finance, GOP Issue 4 July 2016 Page 4 of 10
Pakistan Food Security Bulletin Staple prices Prices of staples (wheat and wheat flour) remained stable Cooking Oil chicken Live Masoor with negligible fluctuations. Figure 4 shows a Year‐on‐Year (YoY) percent change in the staple prices at four different Moong Mash points (July and Dec 2015; Jan and June 2016). In June 16 16 15 15 15 ‐ 16 15 16 15 16 ‐ ‐ 16 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 15 ‐ ‐ 2016, compared to July 2015, the prices of wheat and ‐ May Mar Apr Jun Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Jul Aug Sep wheat flour were marginally higher by 1 percent and 2 60% percent, respectively. The lowest price of wheat and wheat 50% flour was reported in at PKR 33.10 in July 2016 and PKR 40% 38.02 per kg in August 2016, respectively. Whereas, the highest price of wheat and wheat four was recorded at PKR 30%
35.64 per kg in February 2016, and PKR 40.29 per kg in 20% January 2016, respectively. 10%
In case of rice, Irri‐6 and Basmati, the price was decreasing 0% from July to December 2015, and remained stable till February 2016. Afterwards, a normal seasonal hike was ‐10% 9 observed until June 2016 . In June 2016, Basmati and Irri‐6 ‐20% Figure 5 : Prices of non‐cereal commodities (chicken, prices were lower by 12 percent and 5 percent, pulses, sugar and cooking oil, July 2015‐June 2016) respectively compared to July 201510. Livestock and product prices Wheat Wheat Flour Irri‐6 Basmati Prices of livestock products remained less volatile and no 5.0% significant price fluctuations were recorded from July 2015 to June 2016 (Figure 6). Compared to July 2015, the prices 0.0% of mutton, beef and milk in June 2016 only nominally increased by 7 percent, 6 percent and 1 percent, ‐5.0% respectively. Similarly, from January 2016 to June 2016, prices of mutton, beef and milk normally increased by 5 ‐10.0% percent, 4 percent and 1 percent, respectively11.
‐15.0% Beef Mutton Milk
‐20.0% 700 90 Jul‐15 Dec‐15 Jan‐16 Jun‐16 80 Figure 4 : Change in staple prices 600 kg) (July 2015‐ June 2016) 70 Liter) per
500 60 per
(PKR Prices of non‐cereal food commodities (chicken, pulses, 400
50 (PkR
sugar, cooking oil) Mutton
300 40 MILK & Unlike cereals, a mix trend in prices of non‐cereal food 30 commodities was observed during the same period. Figure Beef 200 5 shows that prices of the majority of commodities were 20 100 relatively stable or decreased, except pulses. A steep and 10 steady rise was seen in pulses (Dal Mash). A two year 0 0 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 15 15 16 15 15 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
comparison (June 2016 against June 2014), showed prices Jul Jan Jun Oct Apr Feb Sep Dec Aug Nov Mar May increased by 81 percent, whereas a six month comparison Figure 6 : Livestock product prices (June 2016 against January 2016), showed prices increased (July 2015‐June 2016) by 36 percent. On the other hand, prices of alive chicken, Dal Moong and Fuel prices cooking oil lowered by 23 percent, 4 percent and 1 percent, In light of declining fuel prices globally, a significant respectively. Sugar price remained stable. Significant reduction in prices of petroleum products has been fluctuations were seen in prices of poultry and its products, observed in Pakistan. However, this reduction is still less however, these variations were mostly seasonal. than the level of decrease in the global market. Figure 7 shows a continuous decline from July to September 2015, followed by a negligible increase till December 2015. In 2016, a significant decline was observed in the first quarter,
9 High level of stocks, successive good harvests and declining exports government has announced a support package of PKR 5000/acre for were major causes of reduced rice prices in the domestic market. Amidst small farmers in 2015. of reduction in rice prices, to keep farmers interest in growing rice, 10 Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 11 Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Issue 4 July 2016 Page 5 of 10
Pakistan Food Security Bulletin and then the prices remained stable until June 2016. A one‐ the various agencies in FATA started returning to their year comparison (June 2016 against June 2015), showed areas of origin in 2009. Some 163,000 displaced families the price of Super Petrol and High Speed Diesel (HSD) have returned during March 2015‐June 2016. However, equally decreased by 17 percent. A six month comparison 146,500 families are still remained in displacement, (June 2016 against January 2016), showed petrol price whereas the Government has announced a complete were lower by 16 percent, and HSD price lower by 10 return by end of 2016. With this backdrop, livelihoods and percent. The decline in fuel prices is one of contributing food security of the returning populations have now factors to the recent decline in food prices. become a major focus of the Government and development partners. WFP has been supporting these 100.0 populations with an initial six months of food ration upon Petrol HSD their return, which is followed by continued recovery 90.0 support towards their sustained livelihoods. Most of these 80.0 returns have taken place to Khyber and South Waziristan agencies. 70.0
60.0 To support early resettlement of returning families, WFP, UNDP, UNICEF and FAO are jointly implementing several 50.0 activities to build resilience and sustainable living
40.0 conditions. The activities include support for rehabilitation of agriculture and infrastructure such as water courses 30.0 desilting/rehabilitation, link roads rehabilitation, water 20.0 and sanitation, nutrition support, and provision of basic 16 16 16 15 15 15 15 16 16 15 16 15 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ services. Jul Jan Jun Oct Apr Sep Feb Dec Aug Nov Mar May Figure 7 : Petroleum prices (July 2015‐June 2016) A joint needs assessment was conducted by WFP, FAO, UNDP and UNICEF under the coordination and leadership Terms of trade (ToT)12 of the FATA Return and Rehabilitation Unit in selected The ToT is measured as the quantity of wheat flour that can villages of Khyber and South Waziristan agencies to identify be purchased with one day’s income of an unskilled wage priority needs of villages for their recovery and resilience, laborer13. Figure 8 shows that in June 2016, compared to and areas where activities can be implemented jointly. The July 2015, ToT negligibly improved by 1 percent. Positively, assessment reports have served as the basis for a more remarkable improvement of 6 percent was seen programming relevant interventions. during January ‐ June 2016, mostly due to decreased wheat flour price since the beginning this year. This improvement National Zero Hunger Initiative in purchasing capacity suggested a slight improvement in household food security, particularly among the poorest Acknowledging food security and nutrition as one of the households whose main income comes from wage labor. major challenges faced by the country, in 2012 a National Zero Hunger Programme was launched by the Prime Minister, and consultations were carried out with national TOT Wheat flour price and international experts, civil society organizations and 45 17 provincial representatives to outline relevant 15 40 interventions. The programme was fully aligned with the (PKR/kg)
13 Zero Hunger Challenge (ZHC), a global movement flour 35 championed by the United Nations Secretary General (kgs) 11 wheat
which calls upon all governments and other stakeholders 30 TOT of 9 to combine their efforts towards eliminating hunger in our
Price 25 7 lifetimes. 20 5 The National Zero Hunger Programme has been further 16 15 16 16 15 15 16 16 15 15 15 16 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Jul reinforced in Pakistan with the approval of Vision 2025, Jan Jun Oct Apr Sep Feb Dec Aug Nov Mar May which prioritizes food security and nutrition among the Figure 8: Terms of Trade (July 2015‐June 2016) main areas of focus for the governmental development programmes during the period of 2015‐2025. With the entry into force of the Sustainable Development FATA Returns, Resilience and Recovery Goals (SDGs) globally, the Government of Pakistan is fully Thanks to the significant improvement in security and committed to align the National Zero Hunger Programme Government’s systematic efforts, displaced families from
12 Terms of Trade (ToT) is the ratio of the price of the primary income 13 The income base for computation of ToT is the average wage rate of good relative to the price of the primary expenditure good, it simply five main cities (Lahore, Multan, Karachi, Peshawar & Quetta) measures the purchasing power of a particular livelihood group Issue 4 July 2016 Page 6 of 10
Pakistan Food Security Bulletin with SDG2 “ending hunger, achieving food security and closely monitored for early warning of possible floods, improved nutrition and promoting sustainable agriculture”. particularly in the flood plain areas. An earthquake occurred on 10 April 2016, which affected Food Security and Nutrition Strategic parts of KP, GB and FATA causing 6 deaths, 5 injuring Review persons and damaging 22 houses. Prior to this, there was a larger earthquake on 26 October 2015 with a magnitude of A Food Security and Nutrition Strategic Review has started 7.5 on the Richter scale and with the epicenter in in the first half of 2016 in Pakistan. This strategic review is Afghanistan, which affected KP, FATA, GB, AJK and Punjab an independent, analytical and consultative exercise that causing 280 deaths, 1,773 injuring persons and damaging identifies key challenges faced by Pakistan in achieving 109,070 houses partially or completely, resulting in about food security and improved nutrition, and provides half a million affected people in these areas. Some of these prioritized areas for action for all humanitarian and areas, particularly in Chitral district, had also been affected development partners. earlier by the monsoon floods, hence, households’ The exercise is led by the Government of Pakistan and is vulnerability had already been increased and their guided by an Advisory Group which is co‐chaired by the resilience to subsequent shocks had been weakened. Economic Affairs Division (EAD) and the United Nations Resident Coordinator. The Advisory Group includes Outlook for Summer Monsoon 2016 representatives from the Ministry of Planning, The El Nino phenomenon has weakened and La Nina is Development and Reforms, Ministry of National Food expected to develop during the summer 2016. Prevailing Security and Research, Ministry of National Health oceanic and atmospheric conditions are giving indications Services, Regulations and Coordination, and various of good summer monsoon rainfall in the country. Based on representatives from academia, civil society and private statistical and dynamical downscaling of global circulation sector. The technical work will be carried out by a research models, the outlook for the season is prepared at 80% team comprised of the International Food Policy Research confidence level for planning purposes. As per the analysis Institute (IFPRI) and Pakistan’s Aga Khan University (AKU). by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the Under the Strategic Review, consultations will be carried outlook for the season (July‐September 2016) is as follows: out in all provinces and administrative areas, led by the Summer monsoon rainfall is likely to be 10 – 20 respective planning and development departments, percent above normal average over the country for starting in early August 2016. three months; More than average rainfall is expected over Punjab, Disaster Monitoring KP, Sindh, AJK and Northeast Balochistan; Some extreme rainfall events are likely to occur in the Pakistan is now in the midst of the monsoon season. Even catchment areas of major rivers and other parts of the though no major monsoon related disaster has been country which may cause floods; reported, some flash floods have occurred in mountain There is a high probability of heavy downpour which areas. As the monsoon progresses, the situation should be may generate flash flooding along Suleman Range; Map 3: Accumulated Rainfall
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Pakistan Food Security Bulletin Some heavy downpour events may cause flooding in urban big cities; and The population of these insects built up unexpectedly due to favorable weather conditions and has severely Some strong incursions of monsoon currents, coupled damaged the crops, resulting in low cotton output of with high temperatures, may trigger Glacial Lake 10.07 million bales against an estimated 15.49 million Outburst Floods (GLOF), Landslides and Flash Floods in bales, which requires import of about USD 4 billion Upper KP and GB. worth of cotton for domestic consumption. A decrease
in crop area, increased cost of inputs including seeds, Impact of El Niño pesticides, fertilizers and low national prices are other factors accountable for this low output. El Nino is characterized with high temperatures and less rains. However, El Nino in Pakistan during the first half of this year was combined with Madden‐Julian Oscillation (winds which moved from west to east that give rise to Food Security Outlook inconsistent pattern of rain) which has strengthened the Given the performance of subsectors of agriculture and the monsoon. The rains were relatively low in intensity fact that negative agriculture growth is mainly driven by compared to last year at the national level and well reduced cotton production, it can safely be anticipated distributed across different regions. Due to inconsistent that food supply is not going to be a critical issue in the rain patterns, low rain was received in desert areas in Sindh country this year. and Punjab during the monsoon which otherwise was not expected. In September 2015, a second spell of heavy rain However, the declining pattern due to uncertain weather was received in Tharparkar which helped improve the conditions can cause a negative growth of important crops ground water table and crop production in the area. like wheat and other subsectors like livestock in the long run. The rainfall outlooks suggest a higher than normal The performance of agriculture sector in Pakistan has rainfall in the monsoon season. This can generally be a remained dismal during 2015‐16 reporting a negative positive indication for the ongoing Kharif crops. However, growth by 0.19 percent against 2.53 percent growth in there could also be the likelihood of floods in some plain 2014‐15 which has been partially attributed to climatic areas, which should be closely monitored. factors. The growth of crops sub‐sector highly susceptive to climatic changes has declined by 6.25 percent; with the The staple prices have stabilized showing a very modest growth loss being experienced by all major crops (cotton, increase in the past year, which is likely to continue. It is maize and rice), except wheat and sugarcane. To protect likely to have a positive impact on economic access to food the farmers from the vagaries of unprecedented climate of the poor and vulnerable households. Similarly, the fuel change and slowdown in commodity prices, the prices have been declining during the last two years and government announced Kissan Package in September, have remained stable this year, and this trend is likely to continue in the second half of 2016. This suggests overall 201514. good stability in food prices and supporting household food security. Impact of Weather Vagaries on Cotton Production The cotton crop production accounts for 1.0 percent in It is important to closely monitor the situation so as to GDP and 5.1 percent in agriculture value addition. It also provide the necessary evidence for an informed response provides employment to some 40 percent of industrial in case the food security situation deteriorates due to labor force and brings $12 billion annually of foreign natural disasters or other unforeseen reasons. exchange from export of cotton and cotton products. Though the supply of food may not become critical, Pakistan is the fourth largest cotton producer in the important factors affecting food security remain: poverty, world with the third largest spinning capacity in Asia low education levels, extreme environmental conditions, after China and India. A big chunk of population in Sindh and natural and man‐made disasters. Together, these and southern districts of Punjab are highly dependent factors deplete the affordability of households and limit on cotton, which is one of the major cash crops for their access to adequate nutritious food. farmers and a source of livelihood for men and women who work in the cotton fields.
Due to frequent and untimely rainfall and cloudy weather for prolonged periods, coupled with high temperature between August and October 2015, cotton production reduced by 27.8 percent, and cotton grinning suffered by 21.26 percent in 2015‐16. According to reports, adverse weather conditions affected plant growth, restricted pesticide spray which led to severe infestation by pink bollworm and whitefly.
14 Pakistan Economic Survey 2015‐16, Ministry of Finance, GoP Issue 4 July 2016 Page 8 of 10
Pakistan Food Security Bulletin Climate Risk and Food Security Analysis the monsoon rains and a temporal shift in the monsoon (CRFSA) in Pakistan seasons as well as risks of extreme weather events. Climate change has been recognized as a critical development, Climate impact on food security: Climate variability is economic and investment challenge due to its potential impact on causing different levels of impact on crop production. life, ecosystems as well as local, national and global economies. There has been a generally positive relationship between Pakistan has been one of the most vulnerable countries to climate wheat production and temperature increase as well as change impact. Food security is of significant concern in Pakistan between rice production and precipitation increase. Crops and the impact of climate change to food security is well dependent on rainfall and rain‐fed agriculture are the ones recognized. In this context, a Climate Risk and Food Security most impacted by shifts in rainfall patterns and by either Analysis (CRFSA) study in Pakistan has been recently completed by droughts or floods in different areas. the Ministry of Climate Change and the World Food Programme. Climate impact on livelihoods: Rural livelihoods, Key findings include: particularly those depending on rain‐fed agriculture are highly vulnerable to climate risks. Among the most Analytical domain: Analysis by agro‐ecological zones and vulnerable are the farm‐dependent households in drought livelihoods within each zone, has been found to be a more logical prone areas. way for climate risk analysis. Hot spots of climate vulnerability include arid or semi‐arid Climate trends and patterns: Since the 1960’s the mean areas of Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan, flood prone areas temperatures in Pakistan have steadily increased by 0.35 degrees in Sindh, Balochistan and Punjab, mountain areas in o Celsius with an estimated average rate of 0.07 C per decade. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and the Rainfall has increased in some areas while others noted a decrease areas in FATA where the populations have diminished during this period. The variability of rainfall has increased coping capacity due to fragile livelihoods (Map 4). geographically, across seasons, and annually in the past few decades. There has been a remarkable increase in variability of
The report also presents a set of policy and programme recommendations to address climate risks to livelihoods and food security. The report is expected to be released in September 2016.
Map 4: Climate vulnerability to food security and livelihoods in Pakistan
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Pakistan Food Security Bulletin
Tharpakar Update Thar drought‐like situation: Since 2013, Tharparkar has been affected by a drought‐like situation impacting their livelihoods, nutritional and health conditions. The total under‐ 5 deaths were reported at 234 in 2013, 326 in 2014, and 398 in 2015, rising from 173 in 2011 and 188 in 2012. As per media reports, the incidence of under‐five deaths in Tharparkar is still on rise during the first half of 2016 with 243 deaths recorded. This may suggest a continuingly worsened health and nutrition situation following the start of the drought period15. In response to the prevailing crisis situation in Tharparkar, WFP, under its current Community based Management of Acute Malnutrition (CMAM) programme and in partnership with the Department of Health and other partners, is treating moderate acute malnutrition among children aged 6‐59 months as well as malnourished pregnant and lactating women in 44 union councils of the district. Recognizing the need for an integrated approach to address the underlying causes of food and nutrition insecurity in Tharparkar, WFP is also implementing livelihood enhancing cash‐based transfer programmes through which households are provided with cash to meet their food and other basic immediate needs, and providing trainings on nutrition, health, hygiene and dietary diversity.
Community level rain water harvesting structure recently constructed with WFP’s support received rain water for drinking purpose.
For further information and feedback please contact Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping Unit, UN World Food Programme, Islamabad, Pakistan. [email protected], [email protected]
15 Communication with District Health Officials in May 2016. Issue 4 July 2016 Page 10 of 10