Population distribution A global population of 7 226 794 000 reached in early 2015 was very unevenly distributed, as figure 2.1 shows. Approximately 75 per cent of the world’s population lived within 1000 kilometres of a coastline, whereas less than 10 per cent lived in the Southern Hemisphere. Just over half of the world’s population now lives in urban areas, with two billion of them in 1000 urban areas of 500 000 people or more. The planet now has 26 megacities, such as Tokyo–Yokohama (Japan) and Population dynamics Mumbai (India), each with over 10 million people. 2 The highest densities of people (that is, the number of people per area, usually per square kilometre) were located in the regions of Asia and Europe, especially South and East Asia, Central and Western Geographers study population for many reasons: Europe, as well as north-east North America. Lower Figure 2.2 Tehran in Iran has a population of over 12 million people u to develop an understanding of where our fellow humans live and, collectively, how they grow, decline, population densities occurred over wide areas of age and move Africa, Australia, Northern Europe, and Western centre at the foot of the Alborz Mountains. Tehran’s u to help develop policies to mitigate the effects of population growth or decline and the impacts of and Northern Asia. Antarctica is the only continent growth has been especially rapid since the 1960s population movement without a permanent population. with the population more than tripling in number. Government authorities are planning to redistribute key u to determine how changes in population characteristics are closely related to levels of development at all scales Urban areas, like the one in figure 2.2, support some administrative functions to other urban centres as a of the highest population densities in the world. u to bring about more effective planning for the use of the Earth’s resources. way of reducing the megacity’s growth. For example, Karachi (Pakistan) has an average of Introduction 23 400 people per square kilometre while Dhaka Variations in population distribution become very evident (Bangladesh) averages 43 500 people per square at national scales. For example, China has an average The term population dynamics refers to the changes and disease. This can produce a natural increase or kilometre. These levels seem even more extreme when density of 146 people per square kilometre. However, that occur in a population, and includes how and why a natural decrease. Further, a population can age, or compared with Melbourne’s average of 1500 people the eastern region of the country supports densities these changes occur. Population change can result become younger, because of changes in birth rates per square kilometre. Remember, these densities are above 400 people. Shanghai, the region’s major urban from the difference between birth rates and death and death rates. Migration into or out of an area can only averages. There is likely to be a considerable centre, with more than 23 million people, has an rates. In turn, changes to birth rates and death rates have a further impact on population distribution, age range in density either side of the average. average population density of 3631 people per square can be the result of many factors interconnecting with and ethnicity, as well as further increase or decrease each other: for instance, changing social and economic its size. Tehran in Iran, see figure 2.2, with over 12 million kilometre. Some parts of inner Shanghai have an average conditions, government policies, wars and revolution, people in its wider metropolitan area, has densities in excess of 40 000. In contrast, the western part of the exceeding 10 000 per square kilometre in the older country has fewer than 10 people per square kilometre.
Figure 2.1 Global population distribution Figure 2.3 Australia’s population distribution NOT FORArctic FURTHER Ocean NOT FOR FURTHER
DISTRIBUTIONAtlantic DISTRIBUTION Ocean Tropic of Cancer
Pacific Ocean Equator
Indian Ocean Tropic of Capricorn
Persons per square kilometre 500 and over Southern Ocean 0 2000 km
100–499 Population dynamics
Equatorial Scale
5–99 u Human population People per sq km Less than 5 u 100.0100.0 or or moremore 10.010.0 to to 100.0 100.0 UNIT 4 0 1000 1.01.0 to 10.0to 10.0 CHAPTER 2 0.10.1 to 1.0to 1.0 Kilometres Less than 0.1 20 Less than 0.1 21
UNIT4 Fig 2.01 v1 6/1/16 22 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. UNIT 4 u Human population Figure 2.4 ACTIVITIES statement? Backupyourviewswithevidencefromfigures2.3,2.4and2.5. density andvarieddistributionasAustralia.’Howfardoyouagreewiththis ‘There isnocountryorinhabitedregionoftheworldwithsuchalowpopulation and politicalimportance. 10 millionpeople.Considerfactorssuchaslocation,potentialfortrade Discuss inagroupwhycitiescangrowintomegacitieswithover c. b. a. with alowpopulationdensity. Select alargecountryorregionwithhighpopulationdensityandanother numerical valuesfromfigure2.1. of atleastthreedifferentregionsandcountriesaswell the Describe Define populationdensity. Howisitdifferenttopopulationdistribution? the University of Melbourne Environmental Geography at PhD Candidate inPolitical Svenja Keele Research thekeyreasonsfortheircontrastingpopulationdensities. or What variationsinpopulationdensitycanyoufindwithineachcountry Describe theirglobalcontextusingfigure2.1. region?
NOT FOR FURTHER Urban Australiahasthehighestpopulationdensities. distribution oftheglobalpopulation.Includeplacenames
DISTRIBUTION CAREER PROFILE
iue 2.5 Figure a Melbourne council. The work was diverse, firms inthe UK andin Australia, as well as for decade Iworked forfourdifferent consultancy environmental consulting andinthe subsequent challenges. After university Istarted my career in to complex contemporary environmental so important to achieving more holisticresponses and socialsciences are key strengths ofGeography, challenges andtheability to bridge thephysical I have always thought that afocusonreal-world photographs anddiaryentries from earlyexplorers. and comparing theseto historical records like impacts ofminingonthewest coast ofTasmania to reconstruct over acentury ofenvironmental honours research inGeography, using soilsediments biosphere andhuman populations. Iwent onto do through interactions between rock, water, climate, the fascination withhow different landscapesform Geography, whichallowed meto pursue my undergraduate degree (BA/BSc) Imajored inPhysical Geography-related work forover 15years. Inmy I have beeninvolved inGeography studiesand The Australianoutbacksupportsaverylowpopulationdensity. service townsatlowandmediumpopulationdensities. and south-eastsupportfarmingcommunities better wateredandgentleslopinglandsoftheeast extremes oflowandhighpopulationdensities,the for Australia’s highestdensities.Inbetweenthese administrative andmanufacturingcentres,account and Sydney, togetherwiththeirgrowthasmajor concentrations atportsitessuchasMelbourne of mineralsandtheneedfordefencesites.Urban water sourcessuchasartesianbasins,thediscovery These situationsmaybereversedbytheuseoflocal population density, asshowninfigures2.3and2.5. accessibility haveledtoextensiveareasoflow unreliable rainfall,steeptopographyand/orpoor short growingseasonsassociatedwithlowand other. Inhospitableenvironmentalfactorsincluding combination ofmanyfactorsinteractingwitheach (see figures2.3,2.4and2.5)aretheresultof a Australia’s differencesinpopulationdistribution to experiences ofinclusion ormarginalisation, to how these linkto changes in familyandwork life, to economic concentration but we alsounderstand change, to landuse and infrastructure planning,and connected to population growth anddemographic studies. We understand how urbanisation is the significance of connections between specialist fluent across multiple disciplinesandable to see option forGeography students whoare often Environmental consulting isanexcellent career in good science communication. in usingbothquantitative andqualitative data, and geographic skillsinpopulation andspatial analysis, data gathering andreport writingbut also ahostof academic/scientific skillslike literature reviews, these kindsofprojects drew onarange ofgeneral most recently, climate change adaptation. Delivering planning, behaviour change forsustainability and, as sustainability assessments, sustainablemaster and environmental management systems aswell impact assessments, environmental approvals encompassing contaminated land,environmental statistics. Chapter5looksingreaterdetailatChina’s particularly China’s, havemadeimpactsonglobal 16.4 percent).Significantfallsintheirbirthrates, of theglobalpopulation(China19.2percent,India these twocountriesaccountforaround36percent in worldpopulationdata,includinggrowth.Together The populationsofChinaandIndiaplayspecialroles earlier. Figure2.8summarisesthese changes. deaths) comparedtoaround53millionbirths30years were almost135millionbirthsin2015(and57 population totalsremainsolarge.Forexample,there absolute numberscontinuetooccurbecausethebase growth rateshaveslowed,hugeincreasesin and smallerfamiliesinmanycountries.Although rising ageformarriage,wideruseofcontraceptives (see figures2.7(a)and2.7(b))havesloweddueto a Since the1990sworldpopulationgrowthrates the world’s populationreachedsixbillionin1999. billion tobereachedin1975.Asfigure2.6shows, of 2.1percentayearoccurred,allowingfourth explosion’. Inthemid1960sworld’s fastestgrowth an increasingrate—gaverisetotheterm‘population billion. Thisexponentialgrowth—thatis,at reach itssecondbillionbutjust35yearsforthird It tookaround120yearsfortheworld’s populationto population hadreachedonebillion(seefigure2.6). rapidly. Bytheearlynineteenthcenturyworld’s As aresultworldpopulationbegantogrowmore and lifeexpectanciesincreased,especiallyinEurope. more accessiblemedicineandhygiene,deathratesfell techniques producingfoodsurpluses,andbetter expectancies werelow. Withimprovementsinfarming societies atthetimewerebasedonagriculture,andlife as bothbirthratesanddeathwerehigh.Most Until the1750sglobalpopulationgrowthwasslow Global population growth NOT FOR FURTHER
DISTRIBUTION
from 60percentin2015toaround43by2100. less thansix.EvenAsia’s shareisprojectedtoshrink world’s populationwillshrinkfromover10percentto a projected400millionby2050.Europe’s shareofthe will beAfrica’s standout:from181millionin2015to 2014 to4.2billionby2100.Nigeria’s populationgrowth where thetotalprojectedgrowthisfrom2.1billionin the UnitedStates.SixofthesecountriesareinAfrica India, Tanzania, Congo,Niger, Uganda,Ethiopiaand biggest contributorstothislikelygrowthareNigeria, perhaps 11billionbytheendofcentury. Theeight world populationofaround9.6billionby2050and rapidly. Nonetheless,theUnitedNationsprojectsa these termsplayinpopulationchange)canoccurquite fortherole rates anddeath(seepages26–33 Over longtimeperiods,changesinfertilityrates,birth on individualnationalprojectionsofpopulationgrowth. Future projectionsofworldpopulationsizearebased and 2.7(b))—orclosetoovertwopeopleforeachsecond. increasing byaround77millionayear(seefigures2.7(a) population dynamics.By2015worldwas 2 4 2 training, inspiration and networks to make ithappen. have Geography to thankforequipping mewiththe but Ihave thoroughly enjoyed my career to date and field trips!I’m notsure where thiswilltake menext, and, bestofall,helpwith therunningofGeography climate. Ialsonow teach various Geography subjects processes influence how we planforachanging environmental geography researching how political of Environment andmore recently aPhD in political return to studyfive years ago, initially to do aMasters development andasafeclimate. This inspired a frustration withlackofprogress towards sustainable environments —driven, inlarge part, by my aspects ofhow we manage natural andurban interested inthe social,politicalandeconomic During my decade ofwork, Ibecameincreasingly employers value highly. be over-emphasised, inmy opinion,anditisonethat like globalisation. This isaworld view that cannot consumption andpollution, andto broader trends developments intechnology, to patterns ofresource 4 2 2
4 P o ct d 2 2 Billions ofpeople 2 2
Figure 2.6 2 4 2 23
CHAPTER 2 u Population dynamics Figure 2.7 (a) World population growth, 1950–2050 Figure 2.7 (b) Annual world population change, 1950–2050 2 Natural population growth and decline P diction Population growth rates around the world show to double its total population if the country did not 2 considerable variation by region and between countries have a substantial rate of in-migration. P diction (figure 2.9). In 2015 the highest growth rates were found in Africa and the Middle East: Mali, Niger and More than 20 of the world’s countries were experiencing a natural decrease in 2015, because Uganda, each with an annual natural increase above three per cent. At these rates countries could see death rates exceeded birth rates. The European 4 their populations double in less than 25 years. A large countries of Ukraine, Russia, Bulgaria and Germany proportion of Africa, excluding the southern states and recorded the largest percentage declines in 2015, with 2 the Ukraine’s population declining by 0.54 per cent. the northern states bordering the Mediterranean Sea, is growing at annual rates of two per cent or more. Russia’s population is predicted to shrink by 13 million between 2015 and 2050 because of its low birth 2 2 2 2 Figure 2.9 indicates that low population growth has a rate, high death rate and out-migration, particularly wider global distribution and is found in all inhabited of people in the reproductive age group. In the continental regions. It is particularly pronounced in same period, Japan’s total population is likely to Figure 2.8 Births and deaths, 1975–2050 Europe, North-East Asia, Australasia, North America drop to 107 million from approximately 127 million 4 and southern Africa. Southern Africa continues to (see chapter 6). suffer the consequences of HIV/AIDS and its impact on death rates and life expectancy. The other regions 2 i t s reflect falling and low birth rates, together with slightly rising death rates. The latter trend is mostly at s associated with ageing populations. Australia’s natural population growth rate of just 0.5 per cent in 2015 (see also chapter 7) meant it could take over 120 years ACTIVITIES 1. With the assistance of the glossary on page 000, develop an understanding of the following terms: 4 crude birth rate, crude death rate, natural increase, total fertility rate, infant mortality rate and life expectancy. 2. On the internet, search for the World Population Clock. Keep a record of the increase for one 15-minute 2 period. Search for, and compare it to, a 15-minute period using China’s Population Clock. What conclusion do you reach? 2 2 3. Use figure 2.6 to describe the changing gap in each additional billion that has been added (and is likely P o ct d to be added) to the world’s population. 4. Look at figure 2.6 and figures 2.7(a) and (b).
Arctic Ocean a. Decide which period had the fastest growth. b. Compare this fastest growth to the predicted slowest growth. c. In 1959–60, China’s death rate rose and its fertility rate dropped, due to a combination of natural NOT FOR FURTHER NOTcalamities and large-scale government FOR planning failures. How FURTHERdoes this show itself on a global scale? d. Discuss which population dynamics are likely to be most responsible for the post-2000 trends shown on figure 2.7(a) and figure 2.7(b). DISTRIBUTIONAtlantic DISTRIBUTION Ocean e. Suggest why global population growth rates of 0.5 (see figure 2.7(a)) in 2050 will add more people to Tropic the total population (see figure 2.7(b) and figure 2.8) than in the 1970s when growth rates were more of Cancer than 2.5 per cent. Pacific Ocean 5. Suggest how future changes in growth rates could affect world population distribution. Equator 6. Describe the global distribution of either the countries in the highest two categories of natural increase, Indian Ocean or the countries in the categories of natural decrease. Use your atlas and figure 2.9 to include specific Tropic examples in your answer. of Capricorn 7. Compare the patterns of natural increase in one of the following pairs of regions: u Africa and Europe Percentage of Percentage of natural increase natural decrease u North America and South America 3.0 and over 0.5 and over Southern Ocean u North-East Asia and West Asia 2.0–2.9 Less than 0.5 0 2000 km Population dynamics 1.0–1.9 Equatorial Scale u Australasia and South-East Asia. u Human population 0–0.9
u 8. Discuss in a group the implications for specific national governments of the global trends of: u large and rapidly increasing populations UNIT 4 Figure 2.9 Distribution of natural increase and natural decrease, 2015 CHAPTER 2 u ageing populations u decreasing populations. 24 25
UNIT4 Fig 2.9 v2 6/5/16 Over time, the number of births in the world has u pro-natalist policies of some governments legislate Arctic Ocean mostly exceeded deaths leading to a natural increase against birth control and abortion in population. Since the 1950s birth rates have u some cultures equate social success with large fallen and are likely to continue to fall, as figure 2.11 families. indicates. Even traditionally high birth rate areas have experienced considerable falls: Pakistan, Philippines In more economically developed countries such as and Angola for example. In China, government planning Japan, Australia and France, birth rates have lowered Atlantic since 1979 has restricted couples to fewer children and for a number of interconnecting reasons: Ocean at a later age; though since 2015 this policy has been u low infant and child mortality rates due to safe Tropic of Cancer modified (see chapter 5). Smaller families such as the drinking water, access to health services and one in figure 2.13(b) are dominated by older adults. reliable food supply help ensure most children Pacific Ocean survive to adulthood Equator However, birth rates can remain high in some regions of the world for a number of interconnecting reasons: u children may be seen as an economic liability due Indian Ocean u high infant and child mortality rates due to unsafe to the high cost of raising them, particularly with Tropic education and housing (there may be less household of Capricorn drinking water, disease or food shortage, so couples have additional children to try to ensure income if one parent is at home most of the time) some survive to adulthood u welfare systems and/or superannuation schemes Rate per 1000 people 40 and over u in rural areas especially, children can be seen as an exist to support parents when they retire 30–39.9 Southern Ocean economic asset as they help farm or do household u widespread access to and knowledge of 20–29.9 0 2000 km chores from a young age; when older, they can earn contraception and family planning is available Equatorial Scale 10–19.9 money for the family (figure 2.13(a)) u many women expect to have careers outside the Less than 10 u children, especially sons, provide old-age support home, so delay childbearing or choose not to have and security for their parents; few governments children Figure 2.10 Crude birth rates, 2015 in less economically developed countries provide u pro-natalist religious beliefs may be rejected by aged pensions many couples Birth rates, death rates and natural increase u a considerable proportion of couples in rural areas u social success is not equated with family size; less Variations in birth rates and death rates are major to bring the world average to 18.5 per 1000. As also have limited or no access to contraception; family family pressure to marry and/or have children. causes of natural population increases and decreases. shown in figure 2.9, much of Europe and East Asia planning may be limited The global pattern of crude birth rates has become stands out. Many countries of these two regions Natural increase or decrease is the result of u women may have little choice about family size and more complex as figures 2.11 and 2.12 show. Falling have very low birth rates therefore producing natural differences between birth rates and death rates. planning. Low levels of education may inhibit their birth rates in China and India are being partly population decreases. Japan with a crude birth rate of UNIT4 power Fig to2.10 make decisions countered by the overall increase in births in the Crude birth rates (CBR) 7.9 per 1000 and Germany with 8.5 per 1000 in 2015 u religious beliefs may inhibit the use of family less economically developed and least economically had the world’s lowest birth rates. v1 6/1/16 Birth rates are correctly termed crude birth rates or planning developed regions of the world. CBR. These rates are calculated as the number of Making generalisations about economic development births per 1000 people per year in a population. Since levels and birth rates can be misleading. Not all Figure 2.12 The number of births by region this measure does not take into account the gender or economically developed countries such as the United age of the population, it is termed a crude birth rate. States and Australia have very low birth rates or have naturally declining populations. The reverse is more 4 The global patterns of crude birth rates shown in figure accurate when considering the highest levels of birth NOT2.10 have a strong FOR spatial association with the naturalFURTHER rates — these are mostly associated with poorer NOT FOR FURTHER increase patterns represented in figure 2.9. The highest economically developed countries such as Ethiopia and 2 levels of birth rates are occurring in African countries, Papua New Guinea. There is an enormous range in the with DISTRIBUTIONthe exception of those located to the north and level of economic development for countries ranked DISTRIBUTION south of the continent. In 2015 Niger and Mali in in the middle levels of crude birth rates, as shown in West Africa recorded the world’s highest birth rates figure 2.10: Australia, Vietnam, India, Myanmar (Burma),
of 45.5 and 45.0 per 1000 respectively. A substantial North Korea, Norway and Namibia for example. Clearly proportion of the Earth’s countries record birth rates other factors affecting the dynamics of their populations of between 10 and 20 per 1000, substantially helping are involved and these are considered below. 4 Figure 2.11 Changing crude birth rates, 1950–2015
1950–55 1960–65 1970–75 1980–85 1990–95 2000 2010 2015 2 Egypt 49 45 38 39 27 25.2 25 23 India 44 42 38 35 28.2 26 22.3 19.6 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Indonesia 43 43 38 32.7 25.1 22.6 18.5 16.7
Population dynamics
u
Human population Italy 18 19 16 11 9.2 9.4 9.3 8.7
u Japan 24 17 19 13 10 9.6 8.7 7.9 India C ina Kenya 53 53 53 45.1 38.2 37.8 35.3 26.4 UNIT 4 ast d lop d ions CHAPTER 2 Mexico 47 46 43 32.5 27.5 23.6 20 18.8 ss d lop d ions cludin C ina India and l ast d lop d ions 26 World 37.2 34.9 30.8 27.9 24.7 21 19 18 ost d lop d ions 27 a Arctic Ocean
Atlantic Ocean Tropic of Cancer
Pacific Ocean Equator
Indian Ocean Tropic of Capricorn
Total fertility rate Figure 2.13 (a) A large farming family. Children are an economic asset, helping with farm work. 5.6 and over 3.6–5.5 Southern Ocean 2.6–3.5 0 2000 km b 1.6–2.5 Equatorial Scale Less than 1.6
Figure 2.14 Total fertility rates, 2015
Total Fertility Rates (TFR) The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average expected u an extension of women’s education and status. number of births per woman of child-bearing age. Education has proven to empower the choices Child-bearing age is generally considered 15 to 49 available for women in family planning years. TFR is based on current birth rates. Clearly, CBR u the role of government policies, which may and TFR are closely related. The global distribution of include all the above influences, but also promote UNIT4 Fig 2.14 these two population dynamics has very significant an anti-natalist line. China’s one child policy v1 6/1/16 similarities as a comparison of figure 2.14 with (see chapter 5) and Bangladesh’s two child policy figure 2.10 shows. (see chapter 4) are examples. In 2015 the world’s TFR averaged 2.41 but, as figure Total fertility rate is regarded by demographers and 2.14 shows, there was considerable variation between planners as a valuable indicator of future population countries and regions. Singapore’s rate of 0.8 was the growth. A key factor is the fertility rate of 2.1. This level Figure 2.13 (b) China’s smaller families feature few young children. world’s lowest, while the African countries of Niger, is frequently referred to as the replacement rate. It is the average number of births needed to replace the number NOT FOR FURTHER Mali andNOT Somalia recorded the highest estimatesFOR of FURTHER who have died in a population in a year. However, even 6.8, 6.1 and 6 respectively. ACTIVITIES when the fertility rate falls below this replacement 1. Compare figure 2.9 with figure 2.10 to locate and name countries As with birth rates, total fertility rates have been level, a population can continue to grow significantly. DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTIONThis is because large numbers of young people, born a. that are not in the top category of each map falling in all regions of the world, and seemingly regardless of the levels of economic development. in previous years of higher fertility, are moving into b. that are not in the bottom category of each map. In 1970 the world’s TFR was 4.7, almost twice that their reproductive years. Several decades of continuous 2. On the internet, locate Gapminder. Select three countries, each with different levels of economic of 2015. Almost 50 per cent of the world’s population population growth are assured, often compounded by falling death rates among infants and young children. development. Plot crude birth rate against a development indicator such as income per person or life now live in countries with fertility rates of 2.1 or less. As an example, China’s TFR reached the replacement expectancy. Watch the graphic change over time. What conclusions do you reach? Compare your results The factors influencing low birth rates in the more rate of 2.1 in 1992 and has remained below 2.1 since. with those of other people who selected different countries. economically developed countries can be generally Yet its population has continued to grow, although at a 3. Discuss the likely impact on crude birth rates in economically developing countries of each of the following: applied to many parts of the world’s population. slower rate than previously. Not until about 2050, when u widespread availability of ultrasound equipment that determines the gender of unborn babies The major influences on continuing declines in fertility a 1.6 billion projected population is reached, will its u increased mechanisation of farming activities rates are: total population start to fall. u the extension of family planning programs from u higher levels of female literacy In the long term, the impact of birth rates and fertility urban to rural areas and into areas of lower u an end to a long-running civil war. rates can produce a ‘demographic dividend’ with a economic development Population dynamics large, young labour force able to spur a country’s u
Human population 4. Discuss the likely impact on crude birth rates in more economically developed countries of each of the following: u improvements in health care resulting in lower economic development further. As that population u u increasing age of marriage and birth of a first child death rates (see pages 32–33) of young children ages, the dividend may become an ageing liability with u celebrities having large families and therefore reducing the need for replacement a growing and significant proportion of the population UNIT 4 u government promotion of births through cash incentives and child care vouchers children. Health care improvements include being supported by a much smaller workforce. This CHAPTER 2 u rising costs of raising children and tertiary education fees. vaccinations and safer childbirth and abortions process is looked at in greater detail on pages 34–35. 28 29 ACTIVITIES Crude Death Rates (CDR) 1. Describe the difference between crude birth rate and total 5. Discuss in a group the pros and cons of a population Deaths in a population are correctly termed crude Crude death rates have fallen globally for a number fertility rate. experiencing a demographic dividend. death rates or CDR. These rates are calculated as of reasons: the number of deaths per 1000 people in a year in 2. Identify the major similarities between the global 6. Refer to figure 2.12 to: u the spread of knowledge and more effective a population. Like its counterpart of crude birth rate control of diseases (see figure 2.17). In particular distribution patterns of crude birth rates (figure 2.10) and a. Describe how the number of births has changed between (see page 26), this measure does not take into account total fertility rates (figure 2.14). the widespread use of vaccines has lowered 1950 and 2015 for more developed regions such as the gender or age of the population. Hence it is termed deaths from tuberculosis, polio and influenza in 3. a. What is the significance of a total fertility rate of 2.1 for Australasia and North America, and the least developed a crude death rate. The crude death rate is subtracted economically developing regions population planners? countries, such as Bangladesh and Tanzania. from the crude birth rate to produce either a natural u individual government programs and international increase or a natural decrease. If the result is neither, b. Explain the time lag between a population reaching a b. Identify how either China or India is different to one of efforts have targeted safer water supplies zero population growth is said to be achieved. replacement rate of less than 2.1, and the time taken for the regions described above. (see figure 2.17) which has reduced instances a population to begin to decrease. c. Comment on the world’s less developed regions’ In 2015 the world’s average crude death rate was of cholera and gastroenteritis 4. Discuss the likely interconnection between the factors projected number of births in 2050 and those of the rest 7.9 per 1000, but as figure 2.15 shows, there were u the impact of the green revolution has been an that will influence future falls in total fertility rate in both of the world. Your comment should include a comparison considerable variations. Qatar had just 2.5 deaths per increase in global food supplies. In Asia the threat developed and less developed economies. with the number of birth between 1950 and 2000. 1000 people, while South Africa, the United Kingdom of national famines and associated deaths has and Germany rated 17.5, 15.7 and 12.5 per 1000 been sharply reduced. respectively. Death rates for the more economically developed countries and the less economically developed countries often show similarities. ACTIVITIES Figure 2.15 Crude death rates, 2015 Some more developed economies have death 1. ‘Crude death rates, like crude birth rates, are highest in African countries rates in excess of some less developed economies and lowest in the more economically developed regions of the world.’ Arctic Ocean (see figure 2.16). This is despite differences in their To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement? What evidence demographic histories: the populations of more can you offer to support your agreement or disagreement? developed economies such as Japan and Italy are 2. Compare the data in figure 2.16 with that of figure 2.12. generally ageing and have slightly rising death rates. The populations of less developed economies have a. Establish which country had the highest natural increase in the been reducing their death rates with improvements 1950–55 period. Which country had the lowest natural increase in Atlantic in health services and food supplies. the same time period? Ocean Globally, crude death rates have fallen considerably b. Did these two countries have the same ranking in 2015? If not, which Tropic ones were highest and lowest? of Cancer since 1950 when ones in excess of 30 per 1000 Pacific Ocean were calculated for places such as Ethiopia, Guinea, c. Give at least two reasons for the overall downward trend in crude death Equator Zimbabwe, North and South Korea. Figure 2.11 details rates from 1950–55 to 2015. the falling crude death rates of some countries. Indian Ocean Tropic Figure 2.17 In Burma, as elsewhere, safer, reliable water supplies have of Capricorn improved hygiene levels and reduced deaths from water-borne diseases.
Rate per 1000 people 14 and over 11–13.9 Southern Ocean NOT8–10.9 FOR FURTHER0 2000 km NOT FOR FURTHER 5–7.9 Equatorial Scale Less than 5 DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION
Figure 2.16 Changing crude death rates, 1950–2050 Query from carto.. Lebanon is listed in two categories? Syria is missing. 1950–55 1960–65 1970–75 1980–85 1990–95 2000 2010 2015 Egypt 24 20 16 13 9 7.1 7 5 India 25 19 16 13 9.6 9 7.5 7.3 Indonesia 26 22 17 11 8.2 6.4 6.3 6.4 UNIT4 Fig 2.15 Italy 10 10 10 10 9.7 9.6 9.6 10.2 v1 6/1/16 Japan 9 7 7 6 6.9 7.6 8.9 9.5 Population dynamics Kenya 25 21 17 10 9.6 12.1 7.9 6.9 u Human population
u Mexico 16 11 9 6.7 5.2 4.8 5.2 5.3 World 19.5 15.4 12.5 10.1 9.1 8.7 8.2 7.9 UNIT 4 CHAPTER 2
30 31 Infant and child mortality rates (IMR) and life expectancy Arctic Ocean Crude death rates are interconnected with several u in 2014–15, 400 000 Indian babies died within other population dynamics: infant and child mortality, 24 hours of their birth. maternal mortality, life expectancy and ageing. Infant and child health have become a major priority Infant mortality rate (IMR) refers to the average number for governments throughout the world. Their programs of deaths of persons less than one year of age per 1000 recognise that the causes of infant deaths are often Atlantic live births in a year. Child mortality rate refers to the preventable. Millennium Development Goal 4 was the Ocean average number of deaths of children aged one to five per reduction of mortality rates for children aged below Tropic 1000 children aged one to five in a year. Both mortality five years by two-thirds in the 1990–2015 period — of Cancer measures are age-specific rates, unlike the more general a goal mostly achieved. Infant deaths are largely due Pacific Ocean crude birth and death rates discussed earlier. to respiratory distress associated with low birth weight Equator and are frequently complicated by conditions including The levels of infant mortality and child mortality clearly diarrhoea, gastroenteritis, measles and influenza. Indian Ocean have an impact on the level of crude death rates. Tropic Infant mortality and child mortality rates fall as of Capricorn Consequently there is a clear spatial association between conditions of safe water supply, adequate sanitation, the distribution of crude death rate (figure 2.15, page 30) effective housing and better quality food are achieved. and infant mortality rate (figure 2.18). This is especially Rate per 100 000 live births so in Africa where both crude death rate and infant Maternal mortality (MM) 600 and over mortality rate are high, but less so in Europe and North- 300–599 Southern Ocean 0 2000 km East Asia where infant mortality rates are low but death A component of crude death rate is maternal mortality. 100–299 Equatorial Scale rates are in the middle to high levels. This refers to the number of mothers who die because of 20–99 childbirth-related conditions. A familiar global distribution Less than 20 No data Global averages for infant mortality and child mortality pattern is evident in figure 2.19: most African countries are rates, like those for crude death rate, have declined in the highest categories and the two lowest categories Figure 2.19 Maternal mortality, 2013 steadily since the 1950s. In 1960 the global infant are dominated by a mixture of the more economically Figure 2.20 India’s changing population statistics mortality rate averaged 113.7 per 1000 live births with India’s changing population characteristics shown in figure developed regions. In countries where specific health YEAR TOTAL CBR CDR TFR IMR LE some of the world’s least economically developed 2.20 illustrate the interconnection between the various programs have targeted the deaths of birthing mothers, POPULATION regions reaching over 250 deaths per 1000 live births components of a population. Crude death rates have fallen rates have lowered substantially. Saudi Arabia, United Arab Note from carto.. Changed wording shown in key on mark-up(millions to match) previous maps (less than 20) (for example, Afghanistan 252.7, Yemen 322.3). Emirates, Malaysia and Thailand are successful examples. along with infant mortality rates. In response, life expectancy has risen. The gap between crude birth rate and crude death 1960 447.8 42.3 22.5 5.7 160 42.4 By 2015 global averages were down to less than Life expectancy (LE) rate narrows but the total population has continued to rise. 17 per 1000 live births, an impressive achievement. 1970 555.9 40.1 16.4 5.2 129 48.8 But many of the global statistics remain disturbing: Crude death rates have a positive relationship to life The data on life expectancy shows only part of a more 1980 700.1 36.3 12.3 4.6 115 55.4 UNIT4 Fig 2.19 expectancy. Life expectancy is defined as the average complex picture. There is a marked difference in life u children in Sub-Saharan Africa are 16.5 times 1990 873.8 30 10.6 4.0 88 58.5 v1 6/1/16 more likely to die before reaching age five than number of years a person can be expected to live from expectancy for males and females, with females in most elsewhere in the world birth. An assumption is made that demographic factors societies having a longer life expectancy than males. Indian 2000 1054 24.8 8.9 3.4 68 62.2 affecting life, such as family structure, health services males born in 2015 have a projected life expectancy of u in 2013, 2.8 million babies died in the first month of 2010 1225 22.8 7.5 2.6 49.1 65.7 and security remain unchanged. As crude death rates around 67 years, while females have a life expectancy of their life (a substantial improvement on 4.6 million continue to fall throughout the world, the United around 69 years. By contrast, Japanese males and females 2015 1307 19.6 7.3 2.8 42.2 68 in 1990) Nations has projected that around 2100 most countries born in 2015 have a life expectancy almost one-third longer 2025 (projected) 1396 17 7.2 2.3 30 71 will average life expectancies at over 80 years. than Indians: 87.3 for females 85 for males. FigureNOT 2.18 Infant mortality rates, 2015 FOR FURTHER NOT FOR FURTHER Arctic Ocean Differences in life expectancy are not the only sex selection abortions (mostly illegal now) have differences between males and females. Typically favoured higher male to female ratios. Through all DISTRIBUTION at birth, 105 males are born DISTRIBUTIONto every 100 females in major age groups females naturally have greater nearly all locations throughout the world. Exceptions numbers, but it is especially noticeable in the older age can be found in China, India and South Korea where groups (see figure 2.23, page 36).
Atlantic ACTIVITIES Ocean Tropic 1. What major similarities are there between the distributions What are the likely factors preventing further declines, of Cancer of infant mortality rates and crude death rates? Why should especially in less developed economies? Pacific Ocean this be so? 5. What is maternal mortality? Suggest the types of health programs Equator 2. How does the infant mortality rate differ from the child governments could implement to lower maternal mortality rates. Indian Ocean mortality rate? 6. On the internet, visit the India Population Clock. Comment on Tropic 3. Explain how a decline in infant mortality rate and child how the changes relate to crude birth rates and crude death of Capricorn mortality rate could affect each of the following: rates. Compare the change to China’s Population Clock. Population dynamics 7. Describe the relationship between India’s changing total u Human population Rate per 1000 live births u life expectancy fertility rate and the in the total population. How might a TFR u 90 and over u crude death rate of 2.1 or less have an impact on total populations? 60–89.9 Southern Ocean 30–59.9 0 2000 km u total fertility rate. UNIT 4 8. What is life expectancy? Discuss how social, economic and CHAPTER 2 10–29.9 Equatorial Scale 4. Suggest why global figures for infant mortality rates political factors could impact positively and negatively on Less than 10 32 and child mortality rates have declined since the 1950s. levels of life expectancy. 33
UNIT4 Fig 2.18 v1 6/1/16 Ageing c Arctic Ocean An ageing population is one in which the proportion The World Health Organization (WHO) projections for 2050 are a of the population 60 to 65 years and over is increasing. Ageing doubling of the over 60s population to two billion, while the over populations are the result of falling birth and death rates and 80s could be as many as 400 million. Historians may well label rising life expectancy. As a result there are fewer young people this century ‘the ageing century’ as a consequence. The startling and more older people making up the total population. changes shown in figure 2.21(a), (b) and (c) reinforce this label. Atlantic The process of ageing is increasingly common throughout the world By 2050 those regions of the world currently considered as Ocean as figures 2.21(a), (b) and (c) show. In 1900 the world’s average life less economically developed, such as Sub-Saharan Africa, will Tropic expectancy was around 30 years. By the 1980s it had more than have between 10 and 20 per cent of their populations made up of Cancer doubled to 62 years. In 2013 it stood at 71 (68.5 years for males of people aged 65 and over. Today’s more developed countries, Pacific Ocean and 73.5 years for females). Australia’s equivalent figures were including Russia and Italy, will by then have up to 30 per cent or Equator 80.5 years for males and 84.6 for females. The breakdown of the more of their populations aged 65 and over. The prediction for world’s ageing population is shown in figure 2.22. Japan is 39.6 per cent by 2050. Indian Ocean Tropic of Capricorn a Arctic Ocean
25.1 and over 16.1–25 12.1–16 Southern Ocean 8.1–12 0 2000 km 4.1–8 Equatorial Scale Atlantic 4 and under No data Ocean Tropic Figure 2.21 (c) Percentage of the population age 65 and over, 2045 of Cancer Figure 2.22 The world’s aged population Pacific Ocean Equator TOTAL WORLD POPULATION 2015: 7 253 000 000 Dependency population AGE GROUP NUMBERS Demographers, economists, planners and politicians Indian Ocean are some of the people who use the term ‘dependency Tropic of Capricorn 60 and over 903 911 000 population’. It is closely related to two other terms: 75 and over 243 119 000 ‘economically active’ and ‘non-economically active’. 25.1 and over 85 and over 53 884 000 The economically active or working population is UNIT4 Fig 2.21c 16.1–25 considered to be in the 15 to 65 age group. The non- v1 6/1/16 12.1–16 Southern Ocean 95 and over 3 348 000 8.1–12 0 2000 km economically active are those persons under age 15 and Equatorial Scale those aged 65 and over. This latter group is considered 4.1–8 Falls in the CDR (and infant and child mortality rates) 4 and under No data dependent on other family members, pensions, investment have produced a young population structure in many payments. These are obviously very broad groups which economically developing regions of the world. However, do not always take into account school leaving age and Figure 2.21 (a) Percentage of the population age 65 and over, 1990 this demographic dividend may not last. The young tertiary study or early and late retirement ages or part- population will eventually age and, combined with time work. b NOT FORArctic FURTHER Ocean predictedNOT falls in the TFR, the speed of ageingFOR is likely FURTHER to be more rapid than it was for the more developed Falls in CBR and TFR in more developed economies have economies. For example, it took around 100 years for been offset by the increasing number of people aged DISTRIBUTION France’s population of 65 yearsDISTRIBUTION and over to grow from 65 and over. The dependency ratio may be lower in less seven to 14 per cent of the total population. But it has developed economies where there are fewer older people taken less than 25 years for an equivalent growth in Brazil but a higher proportion of young dependents. In many of these economies, young persons become part of the Atlantic UNIT4and inFig China 2.21a (see chapter 5). Ocean workforce at earlier ages than their counterparts in more The v1process 6/1/16 of ageing is a significant issue, challenging Tropic developed economies. of Cancer governments and organisations as well as individuals. In Australia, as elsewhere, the concept of a working life and Pacific Ocean Equator a retirement period is being discussed and rethought. A ACTIVITIES higher dependency population (i.e. a lower proportion of the 1. What do you understand by the term ‘ageing population working), with more people dependent on their Indian Ocean population’? Tropic own means and government support, needs to be funded. of Capricorn A European Union estimate is that by 2050 there could be 2. ‘The distribution of the ageing population in fewer than two people working for each person above age 2015 has a strong spatial association with other
25.1 and over population dynamics such as crude birth rate and Population dynamics 65. The ratio in 2010–12 was approximately four potentially u Human population 16.1–25 working-age persons for each person aged 65 and over. crude death rate.’ Discuss.
12.1–16 u Southern Ocean 3. Discuss why different regions of the world are 8.1–12 0 2000 km Longer life expectancy brings long-term care needs: ageing at different rates and times. 4.1–8 Equatorial Scale the WHO believes between 25 and 30 per cent of those UNIT 4 CHAPTER 2 4 and under No data aged 85 and over will develop some form of dementia, 4. Why are ageing populations an issue, and a for example. And this age group is facing an enormous challenge, for governments as well as individuals? 34 35 Figure 2.21 (b) Percentage of the population age 65 and over, 2015 increase in numbers.
UNIT4 Fig 2.21b v2 6/5/16 Population pyramids Population pyramids, or age–sex structures, are widely increased demand for tertiary education, employment Figure 2.24 Interpreting Russia’s population pyramid, 2015 used to illustrate the characteristics of a population opportunities and housing in the next 10 to 20 years. such as age and gender. Population pyramids are back- Figure 2.24 is analysis of a complex demographic to-back bar graphs with males on one side and females history with future issues and challenges identified. al mal a. Female life expectancy very noticeable, especially 80+ years on the other, typically arranged in five-year age groups. The bars on the graph may be shown as both the total Population pyramids can be developed to show other 4 b. Marked male deficiency, most probably important population characteristics: ethnicity, birth place due to deaths during World War II number of males and the total number of females, or 4 as the percentage of the total population. Figure 2.23 and migration, a city or region, employment, and infection c. Post–World War II baby boom, and vaccination rates for example. Figure 2.25 shows the 4 now ageing shows how population pyramids can be read. living arrangements for the Canadian population: a valuable 4 d. In period 1965 to the 1980s there were c c Inferences about a population’s past demographic tool for planners, housing investors and sociologists. fewer couples available to raise families, history and future trends can be made from population 4 plus an overall fall in birth rates. 4 4 pyramids. For example, a larger-than-average 4 44 e. Children of the post–World War II number aged 10 to 20 in a population (possibly from baby boomers and now mature adults. 4 a previous baby boom) suggests there will be an Some have left Russia. Remainder stay 2 2 but reproduce at lower levels than 2 24 their parents. 4 f. Falling birth rates due to harsh Figure 2.23 Interpreting population pyramids (a) A young population: Philippines, 2015 4 economic conditions; fewer couples available to have children a 4 2 2 4 4 2 4 2 g. Birth rates remain low but there are al mal a. Wide base indicates a high now government incentives for couples birth rate and many young to have more children. people. 4 b. Sharp tapering indicates a 4 high death rate and low life expectancy. 4 c. High birth rate helps to 4 al mal compensate for any loss of Figure 2.25 Living arrangements 4 children owing to high infant 4 4 mortality and child mortality. In a coupl of Canadians, 2011 4 44 d. High dependent young i in alon 4 population (0–15 years) and t 2 2 mostly not working In a coll cti 2 24 e. Low dependent elderly 4 population (65 years and over) c and mostly not working 4 4 2 2 4 4 2 4 2
FigureNOT 2.23 (b) A mature population: France,FOR 2015 FURTHER NOT FOR FURTHER b 2 2 al mal a. Less of a pyramid shape, with DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION more equal numbers in most age groups until after 65 years 4 c b. Indent may be due to a past 4 drop in the birth rate or mass ACTIVITIES migration of a particular age 4 group. 1. Which population, Philippines or France, is likely to have a high birth rate? Justify your answer from 4 c. Female life expectancy longer figure 2.23(a) and (b). 4 than male life expectancy 2. Identify the locations of France’s post–World War II baby boomers (i.e. born between 1945 and 1960). 4 4 d. Increasing dependent 4 44 population over 65 years 3. Using examples from Russia’s population pyramid, discuss how a population change in one period can have an impact on later periods. 4 e. Narrowing base due to a 2 2 falling birth rate 4. How might continued emigration of young Russians affect the country’s future population structure? 2 24 5. a. What implications does a high dependent young population have for its government? 4 Population dynamics b. How do these implications differ for a high dependent ageing population? u Human population 4
u 6. Identify and describe three characteristics of Canada’s 2011 population shown in figure 2.25 that would 4 2 2 4 4 2 4 2 not be found from a more traditional population pyramid. UNIT 4 CHAPTER 2
36 37 Population change over time There have been various attempts by geographers, u marriage between couples of extreme poverty or sociologists, economists and others to consolidate with ‘social defects’ should be restricted the processes bringing about change in populations u a population unable to feed itself would be subject through the use of theories and models. Two of these to starvation, disease and or war. These events have made considerable impacts on approaches to our could help reduce the size of a population to more understanding of the process of population change: sustainable levels. Malthus’s ‘Essay on the Principle of Population’ and the ‘Demographic Transition model’. Malthus’s predictions and strategies were not realised. Despite a greatly increased world population Malthus (see pages 23–24), there have been major increases in food production during the nineteenth century and One early demographer was Englishman Thomas especially in the second half of the twentieth century. Malthus (1766–1834) who wrote ‘Essay on the At the same time, fertility rates have fallen, particularly Principle of Population’ in 1798. At this time England’s as populations have become more urbanised. Industrial Revolution was changing the structure of the population. It was becoming increasingly urban, In recent decades Malthus’s arguments have regained death rates were starting to fall but the birth rates some favour. Neo-Malthusians have redeveloped some remained high. It seemed as if the population was of his original ideas, in particular: growing out of control. Malthus hypothesised that u there is ongoing evidence that population growth while the world’s population would grow exponentially will eventually outstrip resources. In Sub-Saharan (2, 4, 8, 16, 32…), food production would only increase Africa, food production has fallen way behind arithmetically (2, 4, 6, 8, 10…), population increases. The Malthusian checks over the same period. of starvation and disease have been realised at Consequently there would be a gap various times since the 1960s — in Ethiopia, between the ability of an area to Somalia, Sudan, Chad and Niger, for example support a population and the size u population control advocates often take up of the population wanting to live Malthus’s viewpoints. Restricting the number of Figure 2.28 A refugee camp in Somalia there. In other words, population children a couple can have would help reduce growth would eventually outstrip the pressure on existing and future resource In Stage II the birth rate remains high as the death the resources needed to support use, as well as food supplies. China’s one ACTIVITIES rate falls rapidly as a consequence of improvements the population. Malthus’ arguments child policy (see chapter 5) can be seen as a in hygiene, medical care and agriculture. Thus natural were strongly critical of Britain’s Malthusian argument. While Neo-Malthusians 1. In what way could a disease such as HIV/AIDS increase rates are high and rise throughout this stage. working class for their rapid support contraception and abortion as a means of be considered a Malthusian natural check on In 1980s and 1990s, many Sub-Saharan countries such as reproduction, which he believed population control, Malthus believed in self-control population growth? How far do you agree with Niger and Burkina Faso were at this stage. As birth rates would lead to widespread poverty. this perception? What additional information u Neo-Malthusians have extended the original fall globally, there are fewer countries left to experience Charity for this section of the would help you with your decision? argument to one concerning population growth, most of this stage. Populations in both Stage I and population would only encourage Figure 2.26 Thomas Malthus, and an inevitable environmental degradation and 2. Green revolution, blue revolution and genetic Stage II had an age–sex structure, or population pyramid, further reproduction and eventually author of ‘Essay on the Principle resource overuse. They point to the apparent farming are three broad trends that appear to with a broad, young base tapering rapidly to a narrow, old more poverty. of Population’ dwindling oil reserves of the world; the pressure demolish Malthus’s theory. In what way is this apex, or top. At the time of his writing, Malthus’ England so? What other information would you need NOTMalthus believed thereFOR was a solution, or rather aFURTHER on farming land, as well as its loss due to NOT FORwas most likelyFURTHER in this stage (see previous section). to prove otherwise? series of situations that could check population growth: overuse and partial replacement with urban land During Stage III the birth rate begins to fall. Typically uses; and the overfishing of the world’s oceans. 3. To what extent do figures 2.27 and 2.28 u couples should practise abstinence, delaying marriage Neo-Malthusians’ arguments were taken up in this is due to improvements in education, availability of andDISTRIBUTION sex until they could afford to raise children support or refute DISTRIBUTION several influential publications including Ehrlich’s contraception, and lower infant and child mortality — The Population Bomb (1968) and the Club of Rome’s a. Malthus’s original arguments features commonly associated with a society growing Figure 2.27 The Food and Agricultural Organization’s prediction The Limits to Growth (1972). b. Neo-Malthusian arguments? wealthier and more urbanised. The death rate continues of population growth and calorie supply, 1970–2050 to fall, but at a slower rate than in the previous stage. 4 Natural increase is initially high but begins to fall as The Demographic Transition model birth rates drop. Brazil, Vietnam and Bangladesh would Population fall into this stage. Population pyramids for Stage III Calo i s A more recent model for identifying population continue to be broad based but with a thickening in the Estimat d changes is the Demographic Transition (figure 2.29). middle years as the surviving children from an earlier It attempts to describe, explain and predict the way a time age and enter the economically active age groups. population could change over time, passing through a series of stages from an agriculturally based society In Stage IV both birth rates and death rates are low, to an urban-based one. producing low rates of natural increase. Populations
experiencing this stage would average long life Population dynamics In Stage I, both birth rates and death rates are high and u expectancies. Urbanised, developed economies such Human population 2 2 variable, resulting in a mostly low rate of population
u as those of the United States, France and Australia growth. Fluctuations in population growth would have would be in this stage. Some demographers have been due to famine, war, natural disasters, peaceful UNIT 4 added another stage to this model —Stage V — to CHAPTER 2 2 periods and good harvests. There are no countries in account for the phenomenon of an ageing population, 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 42 2 this stage today but, historically, most pre-industrial and its associated causes of low birth rates and slightly 38 39 societies would have been in this early stage. rising death rates. Countries in Stage V have close to zero population growth or a declining population total. rates, death rates and natural increases may evolve. ACTIVITIES Russia, Japan and Germany are experiencing Stage V While it is possible to find examples of countries 1. Why do the bases of the population pyramids shown in figure 2.29 broaden then begin to narrow? conditions. Pyramids for populations in Stage IV and that fit the stages of the Demographic Transition, Give your answer using the terms birth rate, death rate, total fertility rate and life expectancy. Stage V exhibit a shrinking young base and a broadening not every country will necessarily match the model. 2. a. Evaluate the extent to which you think the United Kingdom’s demographic history shown in figure 2.30 older top. As such the graphic representation becomes The disastrous famine in China from 1959 to 1961, the fits the Demographic Transition model. less and less like the shape of a pyramid. impact of HIV/AIDS in southern African countries in the b. Use the annotations in figure 2.30 to suggest how each situation impacted on the birth rate and the Changes in birth rates and death rates for England and 1990s and 2000s, the civil and international conflicts of death rate. the Middle East in the 2010s, or the baby booms after Wales (figure 2.30) provided the basis for the original 3. Look carefully at the data in the table below. Demographic Transition model. The economic, social prolonged wars, do not fit comfortably into the stages and political events that helped determine these of the Demographic Transition. The time period for 1950–55 1960–65 1970–75 1980–85 1990–95 2015 changes are not intended as a guide for countries to countries to go through these stages is not specified follow, but rather as an indication of how future birth and not all countries may end up at Stage IV or Stage V. COUNTRY A Birth rate 48 53 52 49 46 39 Figure 2.29 The stages of the Demographic Transition and associated population pyramids Death rate 32 30 26 23 19 14 COUNTRY B Birth rate 39 35 39 27 17 16 Death rate 12 9 8 6 7 8 COUNTRY C i t at Birth rate 30 20 18 19 12.6 10.1 at at Death rate 11 8 8 10 10.1 10.2 Natu al inc as Natu al d c as COUNTRY D Birth rate 45 42 34 31 20 14 Death rate 15 12 10 8 9 7
a. For countries A, B, C and D suggest, with a reason for each, their position on the Demographic Transition in 1950–55. How had these positions changed by 2015? b. The four countries are Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Brazil and Poland — but not in that order. A oup Suggest which country fits each set of statistics. On what basis did you make your decisions? c. Use the world maps of this chapter to describe the 2015 global context of each country identified above. 4. Discuss in a group how each of the following could impact on the position of a country’s population in the al 4 4 Demographic Transition. Try to consider more than one immediate consequence of each event: 2 2 u increasing urbanisation of the population mal 4 2 2 4 4 2 2 4 4 2 2 4 4 2 2 4 u successful rural health programs established NOT FOR FURTHER uNOT widespread civil war leading toFOR a famine FURTHER c u sustained improved agricultural yields DISTRIBUTION u average age of marriageDISTRIBUTION rises from 20 to 32 years Figure 2.30 The Demographic Transition of the United Kingdom u more women enter the workforce. 4 acto i s an c ild la ou olunta y ospitals nn o ld ound d disco d a accination op in P iod o a ainst ocal i t s c ap in smallpo aut o iti s 2 d in in in cond mn un it Post o ld citi s poo uildin s a 2 a y ousin oom 2 i t cont ol pills a aila l clin in d at ood s o ta s i t at at ad anc s in ad ousin m dical sci nc poo sanita y at at conditions Population dynamics imp o d
sanitation tt u Human population
Natu al inc as ood supply as a
u sult o land Natu al d c as o m UNIT 4 CHAPTER 2 2 4 2 4 2 4 2 40 2 41