Toppling the Population Pyramid

Fall-Winter 2012, Vol. XXIV No. 3-4 Table of Contents Special Focus: 1 Special Focus: Toppling the Population Toppling the Population Pyramid Pyramid 4 Linking Overpopulation to Deforestation in the Amazon Rainforest 5 Health And Environment: Environmental Causes of Respiratory Disease 8 Food for Thought: Evaluating Environmental Impacts of Energy Generation Technologies: Effects on Environmental Policy 11 Did You Know? 12 Toxic Truth 13 The Folly of Shortchanging Family Planning 14 China’s Cancer Village: Toxic Legacy of Economic Growth The Economic Implications of Aging Populations Source: CSIS 14 IPEN Intervention on Basel Convention When studying the global demographic map, one cannot overlook 15 Good News the presence of a global generation gap, as developing countries strug- 15 Talisman Energy withdraws from gle to address growing youth populations while developed countries are Peruvian Amazon – Achuar faced with a “graying” future. As the world watched global population people celebrate a major victory surpass 7 billion people in 2011, demographic concerns and their role as for indigenous rights. catalysts of global economic, social, and political issues garnered greater Voices attention in policy spheres. Despite an expected decline in the average 16 CREATING SUSTAINABILITY global annual population growth rate to 0.77 percent over the next half 21st International Conference century, world population will continue to climb to 8.9 billion people in on Health and Environment: 2050.1 However, a figure more disconcerting than the projected increase Global Partners for Global Solutions in population is the distribution across the globe, as “less developed re- 17 UN - Civil Society Dialogue gions will account for 99 per cent of the expected increment to world population,”2 growing at approximately 58% over the 50 year period. 17 Social Good Summit Thus, while Europe experiences a halving of its natural population, Af- 18 UNISDR Report Outlines rica’s populace will nearly double, which in turn will further stress the Children’s Action increasingly unstable and unsustainable global demographic landscape. A closer examination of this population explosion indicates that eco- 20 Point of View: nomic, social, and political instability are exacerbated by the presence of Poverty vs. Abortion “youth bulges”3 within the population structure, which was most recently visible in the Arab Spring movement. While many fast-growing countries are ill-prepared to address the economic and social frustrations of their growing, and increasingly vocal youths, many developed countries will be Education brings choices. overwhelmed by the opposite end of the population spectrum; “massive Choices bring power. age waves”4 will strain social and health programs, also resulting in social World Ecology Report and political distress. Today’s policymakers must prevent these popula- is printed on recycled paper. tion pyramids from toppling over by reconciling increasing demographic than 60 percent of the population under age 30 …are at least four times as likely than countries with more mature population age structures to experience new outbreaks of civil conflict”8, population growth and “bottom-heavy” population pyramids provide part of the explanation for the “arc of instability” that extends across Africa, the Mid- dle East, and South Asia. For example, Afghanistan is a developing nation with three-fourths of its population under the age of 30, and as a combined result of population pressures, economic disparities, political rivalries, and ethnic and religious tensions, young Afghans have turned to terrorism and the Taliban for money and sta- bility.9 Masses of embittered, unemployed youths act as 2005 World age Structure Types Source: Population Action International pressures in the developing world with a declining ca- pacity to address these threats in the developed one. Overpopulation must be credited as an underlying cause of many of today’s interdisciplinary global issues, such as poverty, resource constraints, gender inequality, and social unrest. In developing countries, ranging from Afghanistan to India, excessive population growth has increased pressures on food and water security, physical space, and jobs for all; ultimately, population pressure has acted as kindling to the fire of political, religious, ethnic, and social tensions. An understated factor in this Egyptian protestors and military members pray together in Tahrir Square during the 2011 youth-driven uprising that toppled the autocratic regime of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. Source: Los Angeles Times the catalyst, or “explosive force”, for unrest over political, economic, and social conditions in countries such as Pa- kistan, Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen; this idea is illustrated in the fact that “80% of the world’s civil conflicts since the 1970’s have occurred in countries with young, fast-growing populations.”10 A dynamic, increasing youth population acts as a double-edge sword for a nation because while the enlarged working-age population creates the The “youth bulges” of the Arab Spring Source: The Los Angeles Times potential for economic growth, this growth is unsustainable due to the sheer number of jobs needed to satisfy the relationship however is age structure, as very young pop- demand for work. A country that is lauded for its demo- ulations, or “youth bulges”, embody sixty-two countries graphic and economic dynamism, India exemplifies this today with two-thirds of their populations under the age struggle, as the country has the potential for growth rates of thirty.5 These sixty-two countries are concentrated in of 7 to 9 percent, yet needs to create 40 million jobs by the “demographic time-bomb”6 regions of the Middle the end of this decade to absorb the massive increase in East and Africa, as youth bulges, poverty, and poor educa- the labor force. If India fails to create enough jobs for its tion and health hinder their development out of the early 600 million young people under the age of 25, the nation demographic stage. Concerns over unbalanced “youth may find itself embattled in an “Asian Spring”, in which bulges” extend back to Nazi Germany and Maoist China, millions of unemployed youths seek to overthrow an un- as large, disenfranchised youth populations have mixed responsive government.11 with a weak economy, environmental stresses, and poor However, developed countries have turned their at- governance to produce a dangerous concoction of politi- tentions to the opposite end of the population pyramid, cal violence and social conflict.7 As countries with “more focusing on aging and depopulation trends on the hori- World Information Transfer 2 World Ecology Report Fall-Winter 2012 demographers view this “hyperaging”, and the shift from high to low fertility and mortality, as the inevitable last stage of demographic transition, ill-prepared governments failing to cope with this population problem can create unexpected and heightened risks; developed nations may unjustly fault globalization for depopulation, turn to economic protectionism, discourage immigra- tion, and shrink into oblivion.17 As the wealthy nations of Western Europe and Asia prepare for a “gray” future, their governments should seek to emulate the population perspective of North America, which has avoided Predicted Population Growth to 2050 negative growth and a demographic crisis mainly due to Source: guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/14/population-explo- liberal migration policies.18 sion-seven-billion A key determinant of the political, economic, and zon. For states that once saw large populations as a sign social landscape of the 21st century is extreme popula- of wealth and power, the demographic, economic, and tion structures, as the world seeks to reconcile an ag- political tides are changing with the “age waves”12 that ing future with a youthful present. International popu- are rippling through Western Europe and Japan. In the lation policy is at a virtual stalemate due to opposing developed world, “graying means paying”13 because in- perspectives, as wealthy nations cite overpopulation in creasing the proportion of elderly and retired individu- developing states as the root problem, while developing als will add pressure to the labor force and overall econ- countries fault the developed world for resource over- omy, as well as to social services such as pensions, health consumption. National, regional, and international in- care, and nursing homes. Aging populations are a more stitutions must recognize that unstable population pyra- prominent demographic concern today for their future mids have global repercussions, and thus, require global repercussions, as from 2100 to 2300, “the proportion of solutions. The United Nations has recognized the global nature of these issues, focusing efforts on satisfying the 19 Providing contraception could cut maternal needs of embittered global youth. However, these hol- mortality by 29 percent. Unsafe abortions account low calls to reduce population in developing countries evoke rhetoric of the past, such as that of U.S. national for 13 percent of maternal deaths annually. security advisor Henry Kissinger, who warned of LDC An investment in contraception can save (Least Developed Countries) youth becoming “volatile, 7 US dollars for every dollar invested. unstable, prone to extremes, alienation and violence”20 Additional contraception could reduce with rapid population growth. Developed nations with 104,000 maternal deaths annually. the wealth and

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