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Ecosystems Under Threat Connecting conservation policy Issue #72 / August 2013 makers, researchers and practitioners Ecosystems under threat Which threats do you tackle first? Seeking clarity over When does an ecosystem What is lost when the seagrass & climate change become ‘extinct’? cloud forest dries up? Decision Point Plus Decision Point is the monthly magazine of the Climate change and the eucalypts of Oz Environmental Decisions Group (EDG). It presents news and views on environmental decision making, biodiversity, Fire management and reptile diversity conservation planning and monitoring. See the back cover Global vs local threats to ecosystems for more info on the EDG. Decision Point is available free Introducing the IUCN Red List from http://www.decision-point.com.au/ of Threatened Ecosystems Issue #72 / August 2013 On the point Contents Framing threats to ecosystems If a tree falls over in a forest but no-one sees it happen, does it matter? If an insect species (in that same hypothetical forest) goes extinct but science had never described it, will anyone notice it’s gone? If climate change means the dominant tree species in that forest is likely to be unable to cope in twenty years time, should we give up on the forest because the local managers can’t do anything about climate change? The answer to all these questions (like so many questions in conservation science) is ‘it depends’. Research briefs 3 No, this is not Metaphysics 101, this is Decision Point, and this issue contains a wealth of science on ecosystems, how we frame them Informative priors to improve management and make decisions about the many threats they face. Are Australia’s MPAs representative? Does veg composition improve modelling? Up front we discuss the IUCN Red List of Threatened Ecosystems (see page 4), a new risk framework that has been in development now over many years (and one that EDG has made significant Introducing the Red List of Ecosystems 4 contributions to). The fact is that unless we describe something and assess its risk in some formal, widely-accepted framework, IUCN’s new Red List is a complementary way to frame conservation. then it’s likely its decline will be overlooked (say goodbye undescribed ‘insect’). The Red List of Species has helped in prioritising actions relating to species (the ‘trees’) but until now we Staying alive in a shrinking cloud forest 6 haven’t had a workable framework for ecosystems (the ‘forest’). Rocio Ponce-Reyes tells the story of the bird, the frog and the mouse. Then Rocio Ponce-Reyes analyses the extinction risk of individual species in our disappearing cloud forest ecosystems (page 6); Nathalie Butt examines what climate change means for eucalypts, Give me a home among the gum trees 8 our dominant tree species across much of Australia (page 8); and Nathalie Butt looks at the impacts of climate change on eucalypts. Annabel Smith looks at how fire management will hit reptiles in our mallee ecosystems (page 10). Fire management and impacts on reptiles 10 Next we dive underwater with Megan Saunders who discusses local and global threats to seagrass ecosystems in Moreton Bay Annabel Smith discusses prescribed burning and mallee reptiles. (page 14). Managers might not be able to do anything about climate change but they can do something about water quality. Will responses to local threats compensate for impacts from Managing multiple threats: local vs global 12 global threats? Chris Brown (with Megan) then point out it’s It’s the interactions between the threats that are important. the interactions between local and global threats that should determine what we should prioritise (page 12). David Salt Sea grass and sea level rise 14 Editor, Decision Point Improving water clarity may compensate for rising sea levels. [email protected] Improving knowledge transfer 16 Sana Bau needs your help. Decision Point is the monthly magazine of the Environmental Decision Group (EDG). The EDG is a network of conservation Our cover: Did you know that a hectare of researchers working on the science of effective decision making seagrass sequesters a comparable amount to better conserve biodiversity. Our members are largely of carbon dioxide to an equivalent area of based at the University of Queensland, the Australian National rainforest? Unfortunately these ‘blue carbon’ University, the University of Melbourne, the University of ecosystems are one of the most threatened Western Australia, RMIT and CSIRO. ecosystems on Earth. See page 14. Photo by Megan Saunders. Decision Point is available free from: http://www.decision-point.com.au/ Page 2 Decision Point #72 - August 2013 Research Briefs Short accounts of papers (old and new) from EDG researchers. If you Are Australia’s MPAs representative? would like copies of any of these papers please visit: http://decision-point.com.au/research-briefs.html Marine protected areas (MPAs) have become the cornerstone of many national and international strategies for halting the loss of marine biodiversity. Australia has made strong international Informative priors to improve management commitments to increase its coverage of MPAs through the principles of systematic conservation planning and, in the last ten Prior scientific knowledge inspires ecological research, hypotheses years, has rapidly expanded its MPA coverage using these principles. and debate but it’s rarely used to explicitly formulate predictive models. Bayesian statistics provide a formal way to include This paper assesses Australia’s progress in achieving a key principle informative priors and evaluate their influence on parameter of systematic conservation planning—representation—which estimates. In this study, Tara Martin and colleagues use case studies states that MPAs will include the full range of marine ecosystems. of the influence of overabundant deer on the abundance of bird Australia’s progress in achieving representation is measured species on the Gulf Island, San Juan and Haida Gwaii archipelagos of nationally and within seven extensive Commonwealth marine western North America. They demonstrate the utility of informative regions: the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (rezoned in 2004), the priors and Bayesian modelling to determine the consequences South East Marine Regional Plan (2007), and the South West, North of overabundance. They found that by including informative West, North, Temperate East and Coral Sea proposed plans (2011). priors about deer browsing impacts on bird species from a study State marine waters (within 3 nautical miles of the coast) are not undertaken in Haida Gwaii, the precision of estimates from a similar considered. Results illustrate that, if the proposed marine plans are study undertaken in the Gulf and San Juan archipelagos could be followed as set out at the time of this analysis, Australia will protect significantly increased. just over 36% of its marine jurisdiction in MPAs and over 13% in ‘no- take’ marine reserves. However, except for MPAs in the Great Barrier Uncertainty about regional ecological impacts underpins the failure Reef (and the proposal for the Coral Sea marine park) the existing of many agencies to take management actions. The researchers and proposed MPAs are far from representative. Importantly, only demonstrate that informative priors, when used logically and a small portion of the highest protection occurs on the continental transparently, can be a highly cost effective way to increase shelf where activities potentially harmful to marine biodiversity are understanding of ecological processes. In some cases, it may be the concentrated. only way to inform decision-making when scarce resources limit long-term field research or the threat is so great that immediate Despite having a strong and long-standing commitment to action is required. the principles of systematic conservation planning, Australia is not achieving the fundamental requirement of representation For several bird species examined here, the inclusion of informative across most of its marine jurisdiction. The authors conclude that a priors strengthened the conclusion that their populations were failure to set quantitative targets is restricting the achievement of negatively affected by changes in vegetation structure caused by representative marine protection in Australia. Consequently, the deer browsing. Their findings suggest that deer browsing in these 2004 rezoning of the Great Barrier Reef remains a model to emulate, island archipelagos must be managed if the risk of local extinctions not only in other countries, but in other parts of Australia’s marine among native flora and fauna is to be avoided. waters. More info: [email protected] Reference Reference Barr LM & HP Possingham (2013). Are outcomes matching policy Martin TG, P Arcese, PM Kuhnert, AJ Gaston & JL Martin (2013). Prior commitments in Australian marine conservation planning? information reduces uncertainty about the consequences of Marine Policy 42: 39-48, ISSN 0308-597X, deer overabundance on forest birds. 10.1016/j.marpol.2013.01.012. Biological Conservation 165: 10-17. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X13000213 Does veg composition improve modelling? Temperate woodlands in Australia have been disproportionately accounted for extent alone. Models that incorporate variation cleared following European settlement. Biodiversity decline in in vegetation composition can not only provide more accurate such systems may be reversed by restoring native vegetation on predictions of species occurrence, but also guide more appropriate
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