Greece Debt Crisis – Travel Risk Report July 8, 2015

Greece Debt Crisis - Travel Risk Report

Table of Contents

OVERVIEW – SITUATION OUTLOOK ...... 1 Political Stability ...... 1

Unrest ...... 2 Capital Controls ...... 2 Transportation ...... 3 Outlook ...... 3 Mitigation Advice for Travelers ...... 3 Mitigation Advice for Businesses ...... 4 Emergency Contacts ...... 4 Local Emergency Numbers ...... 4 Consulates and Embassies ...... 4 Contacting Europ Assistance ...... 5

Disclaimer: This document, which does not purport to be comprehensive, was produced on July 8, 2015 by Europ Assistance USA and Drum Cussac in good faith, for informational purposes. While every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, please note the information in this report has not been independently verified and Europ Assistance USA and/or Drum Cussac therefore accepts no responsibility for any inaccuracies in such information. This report contains assessments and forward looking statements based on the best available data at the time of writing. Europ Assistance USA and/or Drum Cussac reserves the right, without giving reasons, at any time and in any respect, to amend or withdraw this document. For the avoidance of doubt, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by Europ Assistance USA and/or Drum Cussac in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this document and any such liability is expressly disclaimed.

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Greece Debt Crisis - Travel Risk Report

OVERVIEW – SITUATION OUTLOOK

On Tuesday, 7 July, the European Commission (EC) stated that it was giving Greece until Thursday, 9 July, to present new proposals to resolve its debt crisis. The announcement came after Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ government failed to submit concrete plans to secure a deal with its creditors during an emergency meeting in Brussels on Tuesday. According to EC President Donald Tusk, Greece’s failure to secure a deal with creditors could prompt leaders of the 28 members of the European Union (EU) to discuss its possible exit from the Eurozone during a meeting scheduled for Sunday, 12 July.

Tuesday’s emergency summit and subsequent ultimatum came after 61 percent of the voters rejected earlier bailout conditions set by the EC, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) in a referendum held in Greece on Sunday, 5 July. The ruling far-left SYRIZA party, along with the Independent Greeks (ANEL) and the ultra-nationalist Golden Dawn, had strongly lobbied against the conditions in the lead-up to the referendum, while the Liberal-Conservative New Democracy (ND) party had urged the public to accept the measures. The victory of the “No” camp has also prompted former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras to step down as ND’s president.

Tsipras may have taken a relatively conciliatory stance ahead of Tuesday’s summit, appointing a new Finance Minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, and sacking the controversial Yanis Varoufakis, but key questions concerning the government’s will and ability to push forward structural reforms remain unanswered. It remains unclear if an agreement will be reached before Sunday. Euclid Tsakalotos has shown optimism towards reaching a breakthrough, citing strong political will during Tuesday’s meeting in Brussels to keep the Eurozone intact. Some of the key players, including German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, however, have warned that Greece’s decision to hold a referendum had limited the options its government could take in securing a deal with creditors.

Political Stability

On Monday, 6 July, the ECB increased its pressure on the Greek government by making it more difficult for local banks to gain access to emergency loans needed to respond to the prevailing liquidity crisis. The measure is widely assessed as a negotiation technique to force Tsipras to meet the terms set out by the EC, the ECB and the IMF. The move underscores the potential risk posed by international pressure on the political and financial status of the country. Some reports state that Greek banks still have sufficient money supply despite the stricter measure. However, there is growing concern they will run out of money within days, if not hours, with significant implications for political and social stability.

As shown by the outcome of Sunday’s referendum, Tsipras and his cabinet also continue to receive strong support from the Greek parliament and general public. While there are no clear indicators that the current government will collapse in the immediate-term, the mounting pressure on Greek authorities to reach an agreement with creditors could force Tsipras to take a softer stance in ongoing negotiations.

A change in policy could upset his far-left and radical political allies and thereby raise the possibility for SYRIZA to lose its majority in parliament. As negotiations are ongoing, it appears that the renewed deadline for Greece to salvage its economy is 20 July when the government is due to honor a payment of EU3.5bn (GBP2.47bn/USD3.88bn) to the ECB. Failing to honor the payment would break Greece’s access to Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) and formalize the country’s default.

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Greece Debt Crisis - Travel Risk Report

Unrest

In the run-up to the referendum, there were numerous large-scale demonstrations and smaller rallies held in Athens and across the country by anti-austerity and pro-EU activists. The main protests occurred at Syntagma Square in Athens between 29 June and 1 July. On the evening of 5 July, supporters of the “No” camp took part in a celebratory rally in the central square in front of the country’s parliament building. While no security-related incidents were reported during these mobilizations, the high volume of participants resulted in localized disruptions in the vicinity of the protest sites.

Since mid-June, demonstrations in Athens and throughout the country have been closely linked to the negotiations between Greece and its international interlocutors. The likelihood of further demonstrations is anticipated to increase in the event that access to cash becomes even further limited and on the dates surrounding new bailout deadlines. More rallies are likely to be held in the capital and in other major urban centers in the short-term. These demonstrations may lead to localized overland travel disruptions. Likely locations for protests in Athens include the central Syntagma Square, the vicinity of the Finance Ministry, the US and German embassies, as well as major squares, including Klafthmonos Square and Omonia Square and Monastiraki and Exarchia neighborhoods.

Key dates to monitor around which protests may take place include:

 9 July – Deadline for new bailout proposals.  20 July – Greece is due to make a EUR3.5bn (GBP2.47bn/USD3.88bn) payment to EU institutions led by the ECB. Failure to pay could prompt ECB to cut off funds to Greek banks.

It should be noted that there is a potential threat of small-scale protests of a more violent nature involving far-left and far-right militants, as well as members of anarchist groups. As negotiations with the IMF, the EC and the ECB continue, radical protesters may try to damage buildings that are symbolically linked to these institutions, such as banks and financial agencies.

Capital Controls

All banks remained closed through Wednesday, 8 July after the government extended a week-long Bank Holiday to prevent mass withdrawals over fears of a possible banking collapse. A daily cash withdrawal limit of EUR60 (GBP42/USD65) remains in place for local bank accounts. On Monday, 6 July, the ECB raised the charges on collateral needed by Greek banks to acquire international funding.

As such, the assets of Greek banks have been devalued, increasing the difficulties of the banking system to borrow on the international markets. This adds to the ongoing crisis as the lack of a comprehensive bailout plan increases the risk of collapse of the Greek banking system.

The implications of the capital controls are twofold: On one hand, they increase the risk of localized unrest as Greeks and foreigners may begin to form long lines at ATM machines in order to retrieve as much cash as possible in the coming days. This in turn is likely to lead to the dry-up of cash reserves at local banks. On the other hand, the lack of liquidity and ongoing capital controls raises questions over the looming crisis involving non-payment of salaries and services by both the public and private sectors. While credit and debit card transactions, electronic transfers and bill payments have not been restricted, there is a growing risk that in the short-term employers, service providers and public institutions will experience obstacles, linked to the temporary closure of banks, in the payment of salaries.

In a related development, there have been reports of long waits at fuel stations, with people bringing cans and other storage containers for extra reserves. In late June, many fuel stations started limiting customers to EUR20 (GBP14/USD22) worth of fuel per visit. Reports on social media networks also indicated that only diesel fuel was available and some stations had shut down.

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Greece Debt Crisis - Travel Risk Report

Panic buying has also been reported at various supermarkets in Athens. In particular, supplies of food staples and other essentials are running low in some areas. Locals are concerned about the effects of the referendum outcome, with many fearing that a food price-hike is inevitable. Further pressures on a local populace already stretched with access to cash will be severely exacerbated in the event that fuel and food shortages lead to rationing in the coming days.

Transportation

There have been no reported disruptions at Athens International Airport (ATH) at the current time, although taxi services to and from the airport may be slowed. Greece's transportation minister, Christos Spirtzis, stated on Monday, 6 July, that buses, trams, trolley-buses and the Athens Metro would remain free of charge in the Attica region until at least 10 July due to the population’s difficulty in securing cash. The measure only covers the greater Athens area and could lead to a high influx of passengers using public transportation. Pressures on the public transportation system may increase further in the event of fuel shortages or rationing measures.

Outlook

 The government is likely to continue to benefit from strong political support, although there is a moderate likelihood for anti-austerity and pro-EU supporters to continue as Greek authorities and the country’s creditors remain engaged in negotiations over new bailout terms.  Panic buying at supermarkets and long waits at fuel stations and ATMs are expected to continue in the immediate-term. Meanwhile, public transport is likely to function without major disruptions, although any strike action in light of ongoing negotiations could effectively paralyze the system.  There is a strong likelihood for further economic uncertainty should the government be unable to present an acceptable proposal to the ECB by Thursday, 9 July, as well as reach an agreement with creditors before the 20 July deadline. In the event of such scenario, domestic political tensions would increase while social conditions would deteriorate.  Should the government be unable to come up with a solution to the crisis before the 20 July deadline, it is likely that both social and financial situations will further deteriorate, increasing the risk of business disruption and social unrest in the country.

Mitigation Advice for Travelers

 Those in Greece should stay abreast of the latest related developments through local media.  Travelers should ensure they have an adequate cash supply. Large amounts of cash should be placed in secured locations. Do not have all your cash in one place in case it is lost or stolen.  Monitor airlines’ ability to enter Greek airports, including small regional / island airports due to availability of aviation fuel.  Exercise caution in the vicinity of ATM machines, fuel stations and supermarkets due to risk of exposure to possible crowd disturbances and opportunistic crime.  Avoid engaging in political discussions over the current and contentious situation.  Avoid public gatherings, particularly in the vicinity of Syntagma Square and other flashpoints for protests, due to possible risk of exposure to crowd disturbances, opportunistic crime and travel disruptions.  Security cordons and a heavy police presence at protest sites are likely to result in localized disruptions.  While the majority of the demonstrations have been peaceful thus far, there remains the potential for violence to break out, particularly in the event that hardline elements take part in the rally. Clashes with police are likely in this scenario.

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Greece Debt Crisis - Travel Risk Report

Mitigation Advice for Businesses

 Coordinate with relevant authorities to minimize disruption to business continuity in light of bank closures and capital control measures.  Ensure ability to pay staff – this may require detailed liaison with Trade Unions / HR to ensure requirements are met (which currency, payment method – i.e. cash rather than bank transfer).  Ensure critical supply chain viability, such as logistic providers, remain operational.  Investigate contractual requirements with suppliers / clients and possibly refrain from establishing new contracts during the period of uncertainty. Ensure that you pay suppliers and be paid by clients.  Establish independent fuel supply; potentially through the movement of fuel across land borders (if they remain open) – e.g. Albania, Macedonia, Bulgaria.  Conduct detailed rehearsal of operational closure; ensure that the ability of security provider to maintain service delivery is confirmed.

Emergency Contacts

Local Emergency Numbers Police: 112 / 100 Ambulance: 112 / 166 Fire: 112 / 199

Consulates and Embassies US Embassy, Athens, Greece Address: 91 Vasilisis Sophias Avenue, 10160 Athens Telephone: (3021) 0721 2951 / 0729 4301 (After hours emergencies) Fax: (3021) 0364 2986 Email: [email protected] Website: http://athens.usembassy.gov/

British Embassy, Athens, Greece Address: 1 Ploutarchou Street, 106 75 Athens Telephone: (3021) 0727 2600 Fax: (3021) 0727 2720 Email: [email protected] Website: http://ukingreece.fco.gov.uk/en/

Canadian Embassy, Athens, Greece Address: 4, Ioannou Gennadiou Street, 115 21 Athens Telephone: (3021) 0727 3400 Fax: (3021) 0727 3480 Hours of Operation: Mon - Fri, 8:00 a.m. - 16:00 p.m. Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.canadainternational.gc.ca/greecegrece

Australian Embassy, Athens, Greece Address: Level 6, Thon Building, Cnr. Kifisias and Alexandras Ave, Ambelokipi (P.O. Box 14070), 115 23, Athens Telephone: (3021) 0870 4000 Fax: (3021) 0870 4055 Hours of Operation: Mon - Fri, 8:00 a.m. - 16:30 p.m. Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.greece.embassy.gov.au

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Greece Debt Crisis - Travel Risk Report

French Embassy, Athens, Greece Address: 7 Léoforos Vassilissis Sofias, 10671 Athèns Telephone: (3021) 0339 1000 Fax: (3021) 0339 1009 Hours of Operation: Mon - Thur, 8:45 a.m. - 14: 00 p.m., 15:00 p.m. - 18:00 p.m. Fri, 8:45 a.m. - 14:45p.m. Email: [email protected] Website: www.ambafrancegr.org/

Austrian Embassy, Athens, Greece Address: 4, Vass. Sofias, 10674 Athens Telephone: (3021) 0725 7270 Fax: (3021) 0725 7292 Hours of Operation: Mon - Fri, 10:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m. Email: [email protected]

Contacting Europ Assistance

If you are a Europ Assistance customer in need of assistance while traveling in Greece, please refer to your program documents to contact us 24/7 or email us at [email protected]. If you are experiencing an emergency, please contact the local authorities first, and then contact us.

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