Greece Debt Crisis – Travel Risk Report July 8, 2015 Greece Debt Crisis - Travel Risk Report Table of Contents OVERVIEW – SITUATION OUTLOOK ........................................................................................................ 1 Political Stability ......................................................................................................................................... 1 Unrest ........................................................................................................................................................... 2 Capital Controls .......................................................................................................................................... 2 Transportation ............................................................................................................................................. 3 Outlook ......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Mitigation Advice for Travelers ................................................................................................................. 3 Mitigation Advice for Businesses ............................................................................................................. 4 Emergency Contacts .................................................................................................................................. 4 Local Emergency Numbers .............................................................................................. 4 Consulates and Embassies .............................................................................................. 4 Contacting Europ Assistance .................................................................................................................... 5 Disclaimer: This document, which does not purport to be comprehensive, was produced on July 8, 2015 by Europ Assistance USA and Drum Cussac in good faith, for informational purposes. While every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, please note the information in this report has not been independently verified and Europ Assistance USA and/or Drum Cussac therefore accepts no responsibility for any inaccuracies in such information. This report contains assessments and forward looking statements based on the best available data at the time of writing. Europ Assistance USA and/or Drum Cussac reserves the right, without giving reasons, at any time and in any respect, to amend or withdraw this document. For the avoidance of doubt, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by Europ Assistance USA and/or Drum Cussac in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this document and any such liability is expressly disclaimed. 0 Greece Debt Crisis - Travel Risk Report OVERVIEW – SITUATION OUTLOOK On Tuesday, 7 July, the European Commission (EC) stated that it was giving Greece until Thursday, 9 July, to present new proposals to resolve its debt crisis. The announcement came after Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ government failed to submit concrete plans to secure a deal with its creditors during an emergency meeting in Brussels on Tuesday. According to EC President Donald Tusk, Greece’s failure to secure a deal with creditors could prompt leaders of the 28 members of the European Union (EU) to discuss its possible exit from the Eurozone during a meeting scheduled for Sunday, 12 July. Tuesday’s emergency summit and subsequent ultimatum came after 61 percent of the voters rejected earlier bailout conditions set by the EC, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) in a referendum held in Greece on Sunday, 5 July. The ruling far-left SYRIZA party, along with the Independent Greeks (ANEL) and the ultra-nationalist Golden Dawn, had strongly lobbied against the conditions in the lead-up to the referendum, while the Liberal-Conservative New Democracy (ND) party had urged the public to accept the measures. The victory of the “No” camp has also prompted former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras to step down as ND’s president. Tsipras may have taken a relatively conciliatory stance ahead of Tuesday’s summit, appointing a new Finance Minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, and sacking the controversial Yanis Varoufakis, but key questions concerning the government’s will and ability to push forward structural reforms remain unanswered. It remains unclear if an agreement will be reached before Sunday. Euclid Tsakalotos has shown optimism towards reaching a breakthrough, citing strong political will during Tuesday’s meeting in Brussels to keep the Eurozone intact. Some of the key players, including German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, however, have warned that Greece’s decision to hold a referendum had limited the options its government could take in securing a deal with creditors. Political Stability On Monday, 6 July, the ECB increased its pressure on the Greek government by making it more difficult for local banks to gain access to emergency loans needed to respond to the prevailing liquidity crisis. The measure is widely assessed as a negotiation technique to force Tsipras to meet the terms set out by the EC, the ECB and the IMF. The move underscores the potential risk posed by international pressure on the political and financial status of the country. Some reports state that Greek banks still have sufficient money supply despite the stricter measure. However, there is growing concern they will run out of money within days, if not hours, with significant implications for political and social stability. As shown by the outcome of Sunday’s referendum, Tsipras and his cabinet also continue to receive strong support from the Greek parliament and general public. While there are no clear indicators that the current government will collapse in the immediate-term, the mounting pressure on Greek authorities to reach an agreement with creditors could force Tsipras to take a softer stance in ongoing negotiations. A change in policy could upset his far-left and radical political allies and thereby raise the possibility for SYRIZA to lose its majority in parliament. As negotiations are ongoing, it appears that the renewed deadline for Greece to salvage its economy is 20 July when the government is due to honor a payment of EU3.5bn (GBP2.47bn/USD3.88bn) to the ECB. Failing to honor the payment would break Greece’s access to Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) and formalize the country’s default. 1 Greece Debt Crisis - Travel Risk Report Unrest In the run-up to the referendum, there were numerous large-scale demonstrations and smaller rallies held in Athens and across the country by anti-austerity and pro-EU activists. The main protests occurred at Syntagma Square in Athens between 29 June and 1 July. On the evening of 5 July, supporters of the “No” camp took part in a celebratory rally in the central square in front of the country’s parliament building. While no security-related incidents were reported during these mobilizations, the high volume of participants resulted in localized disruptions in the vicinity of the protest sites. Since mid-June, demonstrations in Athens and throughout the country have been closely linked to the negotiations between Greece and its international interlocutors. The likelihood of further demonstrations is anticipated to increase in the event that access to cash becomes even further limited and on the dates surrounding new bailout deadlines. More rallies are likely to be held in the capital and in other major urban centers in the short-term. These demonstrations may lead to localized overland travel disruptions. Likely locations for protests in Athens include the central Syntagma Square, the vicinity of the Finance Ministry, the US and German embassies, as well as major squares, including Klafthmonos Square and Omonia Square and Monastiraki and Exarchia neighborhoods. Key dates to monitor around which protests may take place include: 9 July – Deadline for new bailout proposals. 20 July – Greece is due to make a EUR3.5bn (GBP2.47bn/USD3.88bn) payment to EU institutions led by the ECB. Failure to pay could prompt ECB to cut off funds to Greek banks. It should be noted that there is a potential threat of small-scale protests of a more violent nature involving far-left and far-right militants, as well as members of anarchist groups. As negotiations with the IMF, the EC and the ECB continue, radical protesters may try to damage buildings that are symbolically linked to these institutions, such as banks and financial agencies. Capital Controls All banks remained closed through Wednesday, 8 July after the government extended a week-long Bank Holiday to prevent mass withdrawals over fears of a possible banking collapse. A daily cash withdrawal limit of EUR60 (GBP42/USD65) remains in place for local bank accounts. On Monday, 6 July, the ECB raised the charges on collateral needed by Greek banks to acquire international funding. As such, the assets of Greek banks have been devalued, increasing the difficulties of the banking system to borrow on the international markets. This adds to the ongoing crisis as the lack of a comprehensive bailout plan increases the risk of collapse of the Greek banking system. The implications of the capital controls are twofold: On one hand, they increase the risk of localized unrest as Greeks and foreigners may begin to