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Public Policy Research Funding Scheme 公共政策研究資助計劃 Project Number : 項目編號： 2015.A8.029.15C Project Title : A Sustainable Tourism and Mobility Framework for 項目名稱： Assessing the Effects of the Individual Visit Scheme on the Public Transportation System in Hong Kong 以可持續旅遊業及運輸業的框架評估個人遊計劃對香港 公共交通系統的影響 Principal Investigator : Professor WONG Sze Chun 首席研究員： 黃仕進教授 Institution/Think Tank : The University of Hong Kong 院校 ／智庫： 香港大學 Project Duration (Month): 推行期 (月) ： 15 Funding (HK$) : 總金額 (HK$)： 690,000.00 This research report is uploaded onto the website of the Policy Innovation and Co- ordination Office (PICO) for public reference. The views expressed in this report are those of the Research Team of this project and do not represent the views of PICO and/or the Assessment Panel. PICO and/or the Assessment Panel do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this report. Please observe the “Intellectual Property Rights & Use of Project Data” as stipulated in the Guidance Notes of the Public Policy Research Funding Scheme. A suitable acknowledgement of the funding from PICO should be included in any publication/publicity arising from the work done on a research project funded in whole or in part by PICO. The English version shall prevail whenever there is any discrepancy between the English and Chinese versions. 此研究報告已上載至政策創新與統籌辦事處（創新辦）網站，供公眾查閱。報告 內所表達的意見純屬本項目研究團隊的意見，並不代表創新辦及／或評審委員會的意 見。創新辦及／或評審委員會不保證報告所載的資料準確無誤。 請遵守公共政策研究資助計劃申請須知內關於「知識產權及項目數據的使用」的 規定。 接受創新辦全數或部分資助的研究項目如因研究工作須出版任何刊物／作任何宣 傳，均須在其中加入適當鳴謝，註明獲創新辦資助。 中英文版本如有任何歧異，概以英文版本為準。 Public Policy Research Funding Scheme Central Policy Unit The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Project No: 2015.A8.029.15C A Sustainable Tourism and Mobility Framework for Assessing the Effects of the Individual Visit Scheme on the Public Transportation System in Hong Kong 以可持續旅遊業及運輸業的框架評估個人遊計劃 對香港公共交通系統的影響 Final Report (October 2017) Submitted by: Professor S.C. Wong (Principal Investigator) Department of Civil Engineering The University of Hong Kong Research Team Professor S.C. Wong Principal Investigator Dr. Y.C. Li Researcher Dr. S. Xie Researcher Dr. W. Yan Researcher Acknowledgements This research project (Project Number: 2015.A8.029.15C) was funded by the Public Policy Research Funding Scheme from the Central Policy Unit of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) Government. The research team would like to express its sincere gratitude for the support from the many organizations, including the Transport Department and Planning Department of the HKSAR Government and individuals who contributed their time, knowledge and access to information to this research through various activities. Finally, although the research team appreciates the support from all of the organizations and individuals, it remains responsible for the results of and any mistakes remaining in the study i Executive Summary The Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) was first introduced in July 2003 as a measure to revive Hong Kong’s ailing economy in the wake of the SARS outbreak. Since its implementation, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of visitors from Mainland China every year, from 6.83 million in 2002 to 47.25 million in 2014. Although the scheme boosted the development of the tourism, retail, and catering industries in Hong Kong, the pressure placed on the public transportation system due to the influx of Mainland visitors was of vital concern to local residents. The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government conducted various assessments to review future development. These assessments focused mainly on the capacity of boundary control points and tourism attractions, the supply of hotel rooms, and the livelihood of the community and the economy. However, the relationship between tourists and their mobility was rarely discussed. Considering that tourism travel accounts for a major and growing share of all travel in Hong Kong, a theoretical framework for achieving tourism sustainability and mobility is of paramount importance to policymakers in Hong Kong. The ultimate objective of this study is to reveal potential public transportation policy measures that will enhance the sustainability and mobility of Mainland tourists. To achieve this objective, appropriate statistical modeling techniques were applied to meet the following specified goals: - To evaluate the variation in tourists’ travel patterns before and after implementation of the IVS - To understand the needs for different public transportation modes - To evaluate the attitudinal and behavioral effects of tourists on their choice of public transportation mode/s - To assess the handling capacity of the public transportation system - To study the implications of tourism policy measures on the public transportation system. The tourist interview survey data extracted from the Travel Characteristics Surveys of 2002 (before the IVS) and 2011 (after the IVS), and analytical models using data from 2016, were used to evaluate and reveal the travel patterns of Mainland tourists and local residents in Hong Kong over the past two decades. The surveys help us to uncover and visualize the tourists’ spatio-temporal travel characteristics. The survey findings provided a spatio-temporal review of trip-making patterns and an overview of the distribution of China tourist trips. The top three modes of public transportation used by Mainland tourists were taxis, railways and tourist coaches. A remarkable trend in railway use was observed. ii However, the overall travel demand from tourists using these modes of transportation remained relatively low compared with the demand from local residents. In this study, a large-scale series of face-to-face interviews was conducted to further reveal the most recent travel characteristics of Mainland IVS tourists in Hong Kong. The demographic characteristics of the tourists, their modes of travel, levels of satisfaction with public transport services, and stated preferences for tourist attractions and shopping items were studied, based on transportation factors. Different statistical analytical models were developed to explore tourists’ travel characteristics and behaviours in 2016. About 66% of the sample group consisted of repeat tourists, and more than one third of IVS tourists were day-trip visitors. Unlike the first-time tourists, the day-trip visitors mainly visited Hong Kong to go shopping (rather than sightseeing). The most visited locations reported by the respondents were shopping malls, the Peak, the Tower, and the Avenue of Stars, for both first-time and repeat visitors. Assessments were conducted on the tourists’ level of satisfaction and the level of service they received when using public transportation. The interviewees were generally satisfied with the quality of service. Among a number of service aspects, safety and security gained the highest scores for service, followed by journey speed and accessibility. In the last chapter of this report, the effectiveness of the current and suggested tourism policy measures for public transportation are evaluated using a scientific analytical approach. Making reference to the findings and observations of the travel trends and characteristics of Mainland tourists in Hong Kong, the following tourist transportation policy measures are discussed: - Maintenance of existing visa arrangements - Monitoring of the list of IVS cities - Promotion of in-depth travel - Implementation of boundary shopping malls - Upgrading of railway service - Enhancement of franchised bus service - Improvement of taxi service - Introduction of multimodal travel tourist pass - Scrutinization of self-driving. - iii 內容摘要 為重振香港在嚴重急性呼吸系統綜合症（沙士）疫情爆發後疲弱的經濟， 香港特區政府在 2003 年 7 月首次推出內地居民「個人遊」計劃（IVS）。 自計劃實施以來，每年的內地訪港旅客人數持續大幅增加，由 2002 年的 683 萬人次增加到 2014 年的 4,725 萬人次。一方面，該計劃有效促進香港 的旅遊業、零售業和餐飲業的發展。但另一方面，本地居民卻擔心大量內 地旅客的湧入給公共交通系統帶來壓力。 香港特區政府進行了一系列的評估，以檢討未來的旅遊業發展。這些評估 主要針對邊境管制站、旅遊景點和酒店房間供應的接待能力，以及旅遊業 發展對社會民生和經濟效應的影響，但較少涉及到訪港旅客的出行。考慮 到訪港旅客的出行量將不斷增長，制定可持續旅遊業及運輸業的框架對香 港的決策部門有重要作用。 該項研究的最終目標是提出可行的公共交通政策措施，以持續吸引內地旅 客并提升他們的出行體驗。 為了實現這一點，我們將運用一系列統計模型 分析以達到以下的目的： - 評估內地旅客在「個人遊」計劃實施前及後出行模式的變化。 - 了解內地旅客對不同公共交通工具的需求。 - 評估內地遊客在選擇不同公共交通工具時的態度和行為。 - 評估公共交通系統的運載能力。 - 研究不同的旅遊政策措施對公共交通系統的影響。 根據二零零二年交通習慣調查（實施「個人遊」計劃之前）和二零一一年 交通習慣調查（實施「個人遊」計劃之後）的訪港旅客的調查數據， 以及 基於二零一六年最新調查數據的分析模型，我們評估并勾勒出過去二十年 來內地旅客和本地居民的出行模式。這些調查有助於我們了解旅客的出行 特徵及行為，并進一步歸納出內地旅客的出行決策模式及他們在香港各區 的時空分佈。 的士、鐵路和旅遊巴士是內地旅客最常使用的三種公共交通工具。雖然鐵 路的使用率有顯著的上升趨勢，不過旅客總體的需求仍然比本地居民低。 本研究進行了一項大規模的問卷調查，以進一步了解內地個人遊旅客訪港 的最新概況。調查內容包括了旅客的個人背景、出行方式、對公共交通服 iv 務的滿意程度、以及對觀光購物的取態。我們建立了不同的統計分析模型， 以探究內地旅客於 2016 年的出行特徵和行為。 其中，約佔 66%的受訪者為再次訪港旅客，當中超過三分之一的個人遊旅 客以一日遊的模式訪港。有別於首次訪港的旅客，購物為他們主要的目的。 大型的購物中心、山頂、鐘樓和星光大道為最受所有受訪者歡迎的目的地。 受訪的內地旅客對公共交通服務質素總體感到滿意。在各項服務當中，安 全和保安得到最高評分，其次是快捷程度和可達性。 最後，我們運用科學的分析方法評估了現有和擬議的旅遊政策措施對公共 交通系統的效用。我們根據對內地旅客的出遊趨勢，特徵和行為的調查結 果，討論了以下各項旅遊交通政策措施： - 維持現有的簽證安排 - 掌控個人遊城市之範圍 - 推廣深度旅遊 - 落實建設邊境購物城 - 提升鐵路的服務 - 加強專營巴士的服務 - 改善的士的服務 - 推出旅客公共交通通票 - 審視自駕旅遊的可行性 v Contents Page RESEARCH TEAM ............................................................................................................................... I ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................... I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................... II CONTENTS ......................................................................................................................................... VI LIST OF FIGURES ...........................................................................................................................
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    Tricor, a member of the Bank of East Asia Group, is a leading professional provider of April 2005 Vol. 2, No.2 integrated business, corporate and investor services in Hong Kong, Greater China and South East Asia. Our services include Accounting, Company Formation, Corporate Governance & Company Secretarial, Executive Search & Selection, Initial Public Offerings & Share Registration, Payroll, Fund and Trust Administration. Tricor has built its reputation and professional expertise through the acquisition of the corporate service businesses of three of the “Big 4” international accounting firms: Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu and Ernst & Young in Hong Kong, and PricewaterhouseCoopers in Hong Kong and Singapore. Our mission is to be The Business Enabler of choice. Principal Tricor subsidiaries Abacus Share Registrars Limited Barbinder & Co Pte Ltd Evatthouse Corporate Services Pte Ltd Outsource Centre Pte Ltd Secretaries Limited Standard Registrars Limited Member of the BEA Group Strath Corporate Services Limited Tengis Limited Tricor Executive Resources Limited Please visit our website at www.tricor.com.hk Tricor Investor Services Limited © 2005 Tricor Services Limited. All Rights Reserved. E-mail: [email protected] MemberMember ofof thethe BEABEA GroupGroup Beijing Hong Kong Macau Shanghai Singapore Tortola (BVI) Tricor Consultancy Tricor Services Limited Tengis Business Services Shanghai Tricor Tengis Tricor Singapore Pte Tricor International (Beijing) Limited 28/F, BEA Harbour View Limited Consultancy Limited Limited Trustee Limited Suite 1808-1809 Centre 17 Andar E Room 3109-17 #11-00 PWC Building, East Asia Chambers, P.O. China World Tower 1 56 Gloucester Road Praia Grande Commercial 31/F Shanghai Central 8 Cross Street, Box 901 China World Trade Centre Wanchai, Hong Kong Centre Plaza Singapore 048424 Road Town, Tortola 1 Jian Guo Men Wai No.
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    SAE./No.83/July 2017 Studies in Applied Economics AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF RMB DEPRECIATION ON HONG KONG Richard (Ziyuan) Li Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and Study of Business Enterprise An Analysis of the Impact of RMB Depreciation on Hong Kong By Richard (Ziyuan) Li Copyright 2017 by Richard Li. This work may be reproduced provided that no fee is charged and the original source is properly cited. About the Series The Studies in Applied Economics series is under the general direction of Professor Steve H. Hanke, Co-Director of The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health and the Study of Business Enterprise ([email protected]). The authors are mainly students at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. Some performed their work as summer research assistants at the Institute. This working paper is one in a series on currency boards. The currency board working papers will fill gaps in the history, statistics, and scholarship of the subject. About the Author Richard Li ([email protected]) is a graduate student at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, pursuing a master’s degree in Financial Mathematics. He wrote this paper as a research assistant at the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise in Spring 2017. He will graduate in December 2017. Abstract Hong Kong is one of the main economies operating a currency board system today. With its currency fixed to the U.S. dollar, the system has functioned successfully since it was restarted in 1983. The last time it faced severe challenges was during the East Asian financial crisis of 1997-98.