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Third Quarter Economic Report 2003

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Third Quarter Economic Report 2003 THIRD QUARTER ECONOMIC REPORT 2003 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DIVISION FINANCIAL SERVICES AND THE TREASURY BUREAU GOVERNMENT OF THE HONG KONG SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGION November 2003 CONTENTS Paragraphs CHAPTER 1: OVERALL VIEW Overall situation 1.1 - 1.9 The external sector 1.10 - 1.18 Domestic demand 1.19 - 1.23 The Government account 1.24 - 1.26 The property market 1.27 - 1.30 The labour market 1.31 - 1.34 Prices 1.35 - 1.37 The financial sector 1.38 - 1.42 CHAPTER 2: THE EXTERNAL SECTOR Major external influences 2.1 - 2.6 Overall visible and invisible trade situation 2.7 - 2.15 Visible trade Total exports of goods 2.16 - 2.29 Re-exports 2.30 - 2.33 Domestic exports 2.34 - 2.35 Outward processing trade 2.36 - 2.39 Imports of goods 2.40 - 2.41 Retained imports 2.42 - 2.45 Invisible trade Exports of services 2.46 - 2.49 Imports of services 2.50 - 2.53 Overall balance of payments 2.54 - 2.56 CHAPTER 3: THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY Net output or value added by major economic sector 3.1 - 3.2 Local manufacturing output 3.3 - 3.4 Service sector receipts 3.5 - 3.6 Property 3.7 - 3.16 Building and construction 3.17 - 3.23 Land 3.24 - 3.27 Electricity and gas 3.28 - 3.29 Internal transport 3.30 - 3.31 External transport 3.32 - 3.35 Tourism 3.36 - 3.41 Telecommunications 3.42 - 3.43 CHAPTER 4: THE FINANCIAL SECTOR Overall financial market situation 4.1 Exchange rates 4.2 - 4.4 Interest rates 4.5 - 4.7 Deposits and money supply 4.8 - 4.12 Hong Kong dollar external claims and liabilities of authorized 4.13 - 4.14 institutions Loans and advances 4.15 - 4.19 Banks and other deposit-taking institutions 4.20 - 4.23 Insurance 4.24 The debt market 4.25 - 4.29 The stock, futures and gold markets 4.30 - 4.37 Unit trusts and mutual funds 4.38 - 4.39 CHAPTER 5: THE LABOUR SECTOR Overall labour market situation 5.1 - 5.6 Profile of unemployment and underemployment 5.7 - 5.11 Profile of employment 5.12 - 5.16 Vacancies 5.17 - 5.19 Earnings and wages 5.20 - 5.28 CHAPTER 6: PRICES Consumer prices 6.1 - 6.6 Import prices 6.7 - 6.10 Prices of key inputs 6.11 Prices of local manufacturing output 6.12 Prices of output in selected service sectors 6.13 Export prices 6.14 - 6.15 Terms of trade 6.16 GDP deflator 6.17 STATISTICAL APPENDIX CHAPTER 1 : OVERALL VIEW Overall situation 1.1 After the setback caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in the second quarter, the Hong Kong economy rebounded distinctly to an appreciable growth in the third quarter of 2003. The turnaround was most conspicuous in the tourism-related sectors, driven by a sharp resurgence in visitor arrivals from the mainland of China (the Mainland), particularly so after the launch of the “individual visit” scheme in late July(1). Also, local consumer spending was steadily re-activated, resuming increase for the first time in two years, upon better sentiment and improving labour market conditions. As to investment spending, building and construction output was still slack in overall terms. Yet machinery and equipment acquisition picked up visibly, albeit supported in part by intake of some aircraft ordered earlier. 1.2 Externally, total exports of goods remained generally robust in the third quarter of 2003, even though the growth pace was not as marked as in the earlier months due in part to shifting to a higher base of comparison. Exports to the United States continued on a decline. But exports to the European Union held up well. Moreover, exports to many of the East Asian markets sustained growth approaching or exceeding 20%. Concurrently, offshore trade remained buoyant, along with the surging external trade in the Mainland. 1.3 In the third quarter of 2003, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)(2) rebounded distinctly to growth at 4.0% in real terms over a year earlier, in contrast to a 0.5% decline in the second quarter (latter figure unchanged from the estimate put out earlier). On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison(3), the turnaround in GDP was even more pronounced, with a 6.4% leap in real terms in the third quarter of 2003, as against a 3.7% dip in the second quarter (latter figure also unchanged from the estimate put out earlier). /Diagram 1.1 ….. 1 Diagram 1.1 Gross Domestic Product Percent 16 14 12 Year-on-year rate of 10 change in real terms 8 6 4 2 0 -2 Seasonally adjusted -4 quarter-to-quarter rate of change in real terms -6 -8 -10 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 /Table 1.1 ….. 2 Table 1.1 Gross Domestic Product and its main expenditure components and the main price indicators (year-on-year rate of change (%)) 2001# 2002# 2002 2003 Q1# Q2# Q3# Q4# Q1# Q2# Q3+ Change in real terms of GDP and its main expenditure components (%) Private consumption 2.0 -1.2 -0.1 -2.4 -0.9 -1.3 -1.7 -2.6 2.0 expenditure(^) Government consumption 6.1 2.4 2.3 3.0 3.5 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.5 expenditure Gross domestic fixed 2.7 -4.3 -11.8 -0.2 -4.3 -0.7 3.5 -5.7 -0.4 capital formation of which : Building and construction -1.1 1.2 -3.2 7.6 8.2 -6.2 -3.5 -8.4 -6.4 Machinery, equipment and 6.2 -9.1 -19.8 -6.7 -12.2 3.2 11.9 -2.0 4.9 computer software Total exports of goods -3.3 8.7 -2.4 5.9 11.5 18.4 19.1 14.3 10.0 Re-exports -2.4 11.0 -1.4 8.4 13.7 22.2 22.3 17.0 11.5 Domestic exports -10.2 -11.2 -11.1 -13.6 -7.5 -12.9 -12.0 -12.6 -5.2 Imports of goods(a) -1.9 7.9 -4.0 6.0 10.8 18.2 18.8 10.9 8.2 Exports of services(^) 6.2 12.2 6.3 9.1 14.0 18.1 12.5 -13.9 6.9 Imports of services 2.0 0.2 -0.7 -3.8 2.0 3.4 -3.9 -19.6 0.5 Gross Domestic Product 0.5 2.3 -0.6 0.8 3.4 5.1 4.5 -0.5 4.0 Change in the main price indicators (%) GDP deflator -1.9 -3.0 -2.3 -2.2 -3.1 -4.1 -4.6 -5.4 -5.7 Composite Consumer Price -1.6 -3.0 -2.6 -3.2 -3.5 -2.9 -2.0 -2.5 -3.6 Index(b) Consumer Price Index (A)(b) -1.7 -3.2 -2.8 -3.6 -4.1 -2.4 -1.8 -1.8 -3.3 Change in nominal GDP (%) -1.4 -0.8 -3.0 -1.4 0.2 0.8 -0.2 -5.9 -1.9 GDP at current market 1,270 1,260 298 306 325 331 298 288 318 prices ($ billion) GDP at constant (2000) 1,294 1,324 310 318 343 353 324 316 357 market prices ($ billion) Changes in inventories at -53 -3113 32-2 constant (2000) market prices ($ billion) Notes : (#) Revised figures. (+) Preliminary figures. (^) Revised series incorporating a new set of visitor expenditure figures as released by the Hong Kong Tourism Board near end-November 2003. For details, see Box 1.1. (a) Here imports of goods are valued on f.o.b. basis, instead of on c.i.f. basis as is the on-going practice for the merchandise trade statistics. (b) Final figures. /Table 1.2 ….. 3 Table 1.2 Gross Domestic Product and its main expenditure components and the main price indicators (seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter rate of change (%)) 2002 2003 Q1# Q2# Q3# Q4# Q1# Q2# Q3+ Change in real terms of GDP and its main expenditure components (%) Private consumption 0.4 -0.9 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -1.3 4.6 expenditure(^) Government consumption 0.4 -0.2 2.3 -1.2 0.1 -0.3 1.8 expenditure Gross domestic fixed N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. capital formation Total exports of goods 4.6 5.7 4.1 3.9 3.1 2.4 0.2 Re-exports 5.8 6.6 4.6 4.7 3.9 2.7 -0.4 Domestic exports -5.5 -2.0 -0.6 -4.3 -6.3 -1.8 8.5 Imports of goods(a) 4.6 5.9 4.6 3.0 3.7 -0.9 2.0 Exports of services(^) 2.5 4.8 5.9 4.1 -2.6 -20.0 31.0 Imports of services 0.4 -1.6 3.8 1.1 -6.9 -17.7 29.7 Gross Domestic Product(b) 0.3 1.1 2.0 1.7 -0.3 -3.7 6.4 Change in the main price indicators (%) GDP deflator -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -1.6 -1.4 -1.6 -1.2 Composite Consumer Price Index(c) -1.1 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 -1.1 -1.9 Consumer Price Index (A)(c) -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 * -0.5 -2.3 Notes : (#) Revised figures.
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