BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE IN BRAZIL Environment, Development, and Climate Change Building a Sustainable Future in Brazil: Environment, Development, and Climate Change Edited by Anya Prusa and Amy Erica Smith Brazil Institute | Wilson Center Washington, DC © Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 2020 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Warm thanks to Ricardo Zúñiga and Paulo Sotero for supportive leadership. Our gratitude as well to Lara Bartilotti Picanço, who was instrumental in getting this report off the ground. This report benefited from the excellent assistance of Alexandre Jabor, Annelise Gilbert, Anushree Lamsal, Jade Rodrigues, Monica Snyder, and Debora Ziccardi. TABLE OF CONTENTS 3 Letter from the Editors Anya Prusa and Amy Erica Smith 9 Introduction: The Amazon Fulcrum Thomas Lovejoy 13 Interview with Carlos Nobre 17 Interview with Denis Minev 23 Interview with Izabella Teixeira 27 Interview with Daniela Lerda 31 The Role of Indigenous People in the Conservation of the Amazon Magaly da F.S.T. Medeiros 35 Perceptions of Climate Change and the Role of Religion Amy Erica Smith 39 Civil Society Mobilization for Forest Conservation Solveig Aamodt 43 Carbon Markets and Forest Conservation Christopher Schulz 47 Political Economies of Energy Transition: Wind and Solar Power Kathryn Hochstetler 51 Appendix A: Findings from 2020 ECLAC Report “The Climate Emergency in Latin America and the Caribbean” 53 Appendix B: Suggestions for Further Readings Editors’ Note by Anya Prusa and Amy Erica Smith Famous for the Amazon Rainforest, Brazil research organizations, private companies, is home to what was once another vast NGOs, and government institutions—are forest: the coastal Mata Atlântica. The slow developing new techniques and models to removal of the Mata Atlântica in the service aid forest restoration, including using data of economic development goes back more to predict where the forest is most likely to than five centuries, to the arrival of the Por- regrow quickly.2 Their goal is to restore 15 tuguese on Brazil’s northeast coast in 1500. million hectares (150,000 square kilome- Plantations, ranching, logging, and eventual- ters) over the next 30 years.3 ly urbanization all hacked away at the trees, with deforestation accelerating as cities Yet the scale of the effort required to re- expanded in the twentieth century. store even part of the Mata Atlântica serves also as a cautionary tale for the fate of the Today, just 12 percent of the forests that Amazon. It is far easier to conserve a stand- once covered a million square kilometers ing forest than to regrow one, and the Ama- along the coast of Brazil remain in good zon has already lost about 18 percent of its condition, and the region is now home total tree cover. The need to prevent forest to 72 percent of the Brazilian population.1 loss in the Amazon is particularly acute be- What is left of the Mata Atlântica exists in cause the world’s largest rainforest creates patches. Dense urban sprawl is punctuated its own weather. Deforested areas become by islands of green; untamed vegetation dryer and hotter; and studies indicate that, and tall palm trees pop up on empty plots at least in the short-term, regrown forest is of land left to their own devices for a few less effective at carbon capture, more dom- years. Little black capuchin monkeys scam- inated by dry tree species, and more prone per up and down isolated trees in urban to future fires. ScientistsT homas Lovejoy parks and small forest preserves. and Carlos Nobre, both contributors to this report, warn of a looming tipping point near These remnants of the Mata Atlântica still 20-23 percent deforestation, after which the form one of the most biodiverse forests forest will no longer be able to sustain its in the world: more than 52 percent of its current hydrological cycles, and will instead tree species are found nowhere else in the transition instead towards drier savannah world. Many initiatives are underway to and scrub—drastically diminishing rainfall restore the forest, including the innovative and driving a spike in warming across South Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact, created in America—with profound implications for the 2009. The Pact’s more than 270 members— global climate.4 1 Atlas da Mata Atlântica, 2018-2019, SOS Mata Atlântica, https://www.sosma.org.br/sobre/relatorios-e-balancos 2 Karen D. Holl. “Restoring Tropical Forests from the Bottom Up,” Science 355, no. 6324 (February 2017): 455-6, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam5432. 3 Pacto pela Restauração da Mata Atlântica, https://www.pactomataatlantica.org.br/o-pacto. 4 Thomas E. Lovejoy and Carlos Nobre, “Amazon Tipping Point: Last Change for Action,” Science Advances 5, no. 12, eaba2949, https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/12/eaba2949. 3 BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE IN BRAZIL The stakes are clear. Nonetheless, ad- After hitting a low-point of 4,700 km2 during dressing deforestation—and environmental the administration of President Dilma Rous- conservation more broadly—remains an seff in 2012, Amazon deforestation has risen ongoing challenge. Deforestation is often over most of the past decade (see interview an individual-level decision in Brazil, yet one with Minister Izabella Teixeira in Chapter embedded in a policy context that incen- 4). Under President Jair Bolsonaro—who tivizes land clearing. Millions of people campaigned on the promise (yet unfulfilled) deforest in large and small ways in their to withdraw from the Paris Accords—defor- daily lives. City dwellers chop down the estation rose 29.5 percent between 2018 forest regrowing on their properties. Rural and 2019, to nearly 9,800 km2. landholders burn down the vegetation on their plots, selling the charred remains as The COVID-19 pandemic appears to have charcoal. Loggers chop and traffic the trees triggered a further rise in deforestation. In of the Amazon, usually illegally. the first six months of 2020, Brazil’s satellite monitoring systems show that deforesta- At the same time, deforestation is the prod- tion has risen 25 percent, compared with uct of political and economic systems that the same period in previous years.5 Federal incentivize land clearing. Not unlike in the environmental agents have withdrawn from United States, Brazilian politicians encour- monitoring their forest stations. Meanwhile, aged citizens to “go west” to claim and the Bolsonaro administration is accused of clear land, aligning individual lucre with the inadequately protecting indigenous commu- national interest. Brazil’s 1964-1985 military nities from devastating viral outbreaks--thus dictatorship built highways and industrial further threatening the forests that indige- parks in the middle of the jungle to secure nous groups traditionally defend from log- Brazil’s vast territory. Policies that allow pol- gers and miners. These trends underscore iticians to expropriate “unproductive” land an ongoing lack of commitment at the high- further encourage deforestation. est levels of government to tackling defor- estation. Recently released footage from an Moreover, spoils often go to those who skirt April cabinet meeting revealed Minister of Brazilian law: from networks that launder the Environment Ricardo Salles speculating cattle raised on illegally cleared forest to that the crisis provided good cover to elimi- frequent amnesties for those who grab nate environmental regulations. More broad- land illegally in the Amazon (see interview ly, there are fears that the economic crisis with Daniela Lerda in Chapter 5). Today, the resulting from COVID-19-related closures legacy of these policies can be seen in the could increase pressure on the forests, as growing degradation of the wetlands of the the government and individual Brazilians Pantanal, the savanna of the Cerrado, and alike look for quick ways to raise revenue. most famously the Amazon Forest. In Manaus, residents fleeing COVID-19 are 5 David Biller and Mauricio Savarese, “Brazil Sacks OfficialA fter Soaring June Deforestation Data,” Washington Post, July 13, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/brazil-sacks-official-after-soaring- june-deforestation-data/2020/07/13/31c503ae-c550-11ea-a825-8722004e4150_story.html; “Brazil Amazon Deforestation Up in June, Set for Worst Year in Over a Decade,” Reuters, July 10, 2020, https://www.reuters. com/article/us-brazil-environment/brazil-amazon-deforestation-up-in-june-set-for-worst-year-in-over-a-decade- idUSKBN24B1VG. BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE IN BRAZIL 4 returning to rural communities in the interior existing law, including Brazil’s landmark For- of the state of Amazonas—places where est Code. Quotas, laws, and international most ways to earn a living involve deforesta- commitments are just words on paper; they tion (see the interview with Denis Minev in cannot implement themselves. Chapter 3). Thus, the second path forward is to imple- However, deforestation is not inevitable. ment existing laws more effectively and This report represents the outcome of a consistently. Regularizing and legalizing series of conversations we (as well as the land titles is one critical piece of the story, Brazil Institute’s recently retired director, as most illegal logging and land clearing Paulo Sotero) have been having over the currently occurs on misappropriated pub- past year—discussions with policy mak- lic lands (see interview with Denis Minev ers, scientists, civil society, the business in Chapter 3). Moreover, Daniela Lerda community, and ordinary citizens. These explains in Chapter 5 that inconsistent