AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL REVIEW
VOLUME 45 No. 11 NOVEMBER 2020
AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL & JEWISH AFFAIRS COUNCIL TRUMP VS. BIDEN
The US election and its implications for Israel, the wider Middle East, and the Iranian nuclear problem
SOCIAL PROBLEMS ANKARA AWAY A PALESTINIAN- ARDERN ABLAZE ARAB SPLIT Facebook finally shows seriousness How a changing Electoral land- Turkey is becoming An angry Palestinian slide, Israel, and about online antisemitism – but is it a growing threat to leadership seeks the Kiwi Jewish enough? ...... PAGE 20 Israel ...... PAGE 29 support from Iran community .....PAGE 9 and Turkey...... PAGE 22 NAME OF SECTION
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AIR – November 2020 AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL VOLUME 45 No. 11 REVIEW NOVEMBER 2020 EDITOR’S NOTE NAME OF SECTION his AIR edition focuses on the US election on Nov. 3, and the potential Middle East ON THE COVER Tpolicies of either a Trump or Biden administration over the next four years. US President Donald Trump, left, While Colin Rubenstein’s editorial and Shmuel Rosner look at the US, Israel and the and Democratic presidential Palestinians, the cover section focuses specifically on the two candidates and the long- candidate former vice president standing crisis over Iran’s nuclear program and destabilising rogue activity – in which Joe Biden, right, participate in the US necessarily plays a central role. Lahav Harkov consults top Israeli experts on how the first presidential debate with US policy on Iran could change and how this might affect Israel and the world, while moderator Chris Wallace of Fox strategic analyst Yossi Kuperwasser looks more closely at where Iran’s potential nuclear News, centre, in Cleveland, Ohio. breakout efforts now stand. Plus, Jackson Richman reports on the international dispute (Photo: AAP) over whether the UN arms embargo on Iran has now been lifted. Also featured this month are social media expert Emily Schrader on Facebook’s recent change of heart on antisemitic content, and AIJAC’s Oved Lobel on the growing threat to Israel from an increasingly powerful and aggressive Turkey. And don’t miss: Khaled Abu Toameh on the Palestinian turn away from the Arab states and toward Iran and Turkey; Tzvi Fleischer on the “settlements killed the two-state solution” lie; and Miriam Bell’s analysis of New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern’s stunning re- election victory. As always, please send us your comments on any aspect of this edition at [email protected].
Tzvi Fleischer CONTENTS FEATURE STORIES REGULAR COLUMNS WASHINGTON FROM THE EDITORIAL CHAIRMAN TO TEHERAN COLIN RUBENSTEIN ...... PAGE 4 ...... PAGE 5 BY LAHAV HARKOV WORD FOR WORD Israel is also closely eyeing the SCRIBBLINGS US election for a number of TZVI FLEISCHER ...... PAGE 6 reasons, the Iran nuclear threat DECONSTRUCTION ZONE being a major one... Both can- SHMUEL ROSNER ...... PAGE 7 didates’ statements on Iran have raised concerns...... PAGE 12 ASIA WATCH THE IRANIAN ARMS EMBARGO EXPIRES MICHAEL SHANNON ...... PAGE 8 BY JACKSON RICHMAN ...... PAGE 15 AIR NEW ZEALAND MIRIAM BELL ...... PAGE 9 IRAN’S BREAKOUT POTENTIAL BY YOSSI KUPERWASSER ...... PAGE 16 BEHIND THE NEWS...... PAGE 10 SOCIAL PROBLEMS STRANGER THAN FICTION...... PAGE 11 Facebook’s new antisemitism policies NOTED AND QUOTED...... PAGE 35 BY EMILY SCHRADER ...... PAGE 20 IN PARLIAMENT...... PAGE 36 FACEBOOK HEEDS HOLOCAUST MESSAGE BY NAOMI LEVIN ...... PAGE 21 MEDIA MICROSCOPE ALLON LEE ...... PAGE 39 PALESTINIANS’ SPLIT WITH THE ARABS BY KHALED ABU TOAMEH ...... PAGE 22 THE LAST WORD JEREMY JONES ...... PAGE 40 PROLIFERATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST BY RAN PORAT ...... PAGE 24 HOW TO USE OUR INTERACTIVE EDITION
WORLD OF WEBINARS • Tap/click to return to the Contents page BY JAMIE HYAMS ...... PAGE 26 • All listed articles link to their page. ESSAY: ANKARA AWAY • Best viewed in your desktop browser or the Books (iOS) or equivalent e-book reader app in portrait mode. Assessing the Turkish challenge to Israel 3 BY OVED LOBEL ...... PAGE 29 AIR – November 2020 Australia/Israel Review A journal of analysis and opinion published by the Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC)
Editorial Chairman
EDITORIAL Dr COLIN RUBENSTEIN AM Editor-in-Chief Dr TZVI FLEISCHER Senior Contributing Editor THE NEXT US JEREMY JONES AM Staff Writers ALLON LEE, JAMIE HYAMS, AHRON ADMINISTRATION SHAPIRO, SHARYN MITTELMAN, NAOMI LEVIN, OVED LOBEL, JUDY MAYNARD Publishing Manager here is a great deal at stake in November’s US elections – both for the US and for MICHAEL SHANNON Correspondents Tthe wider world. Amidst one of the most acrimonious and polarised campaigns in ISRAEL: AMOTZ ASA-EL memory, playing out between President Donald Trump and former vice-president Joe EUROPE: DOUGLAS DAVIS NEW ZEALAND: MIRIAM BELL Biden, it is worth remembering that, overall, what unites Americans is still greater than National Editorial Board what divides them. KEITH BEVILLE, RABBI RALPH GENENDE OAM, GARY HERZ, MIRIAM Part of the US consensus is a firm backbone of bipartisan support for Israel and, more LASKY, STEVE LIEBLICH, RABBI JOHN broadly, Western interests in the Middle East. That consensus is under greater threat than LEVI AM, Hon. HOWARD NATHAN AM, IAN WALLER SC it has been in many decades, but is nonetheless far from broken. In the Democratic party, the advances by far-left or progressive candidates hostile to AIJAC Israel and traditional Western interests in a smattering of congressional primaries, and National Chairman MARK LEIBLER AC spearheaded by the presidential campaign of Bernie Sanders, are worrying. However, a NSW Chairman calm assessment of the larger picture is warranted. PAUL RUBENSTEIN Executive Director Sanders lost convincingly to a career centrist in Biden. Dr COLIN RUBENSTEIN AM Progressive victories in congressional primary races have received huge media cover- Director of International & Community Affairs age but have been mostly opportunistic and symbolic and confined to inner urban areas JEREMY JONES AM with large Democratic majorities. Senior Policy Analysts AHRON SHAPIRO, JAMIE HYAMS, ALLON The overall picture is perhaps better indicated by last year’s non-binding congressional LEE, NAOMI LEVIN, SHARYN MITTELMAN resolution condemning the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) campaign against Policy Analysts OVED LOBEL, JUDY MAYNARD Israel, which passed by a vote of 398 to 17, with five abstentions. Associate Director of Public Affairs Most voters in swing districts in the US Congress – which are the ones that decide JOEL BURNIE National Media & Public Affairs elections – are, by nature, centrist. As Washington Post political columnist David Ignatius Officer noted in February: “The left wing of the [Democratic] party… got the attention... But it ARIEL ZOHAR Multimedia Designer was the centrist candidates who swung Republican districts into the Democratic column AREK DYBEL and thus delivered the House for Democrats in 2018.” Ignatius offered two examples – Events Coordinator HELEN BRUSTMAN OAM Michigan’s Elissa Slotkin and Conor Lamb from Pennsylvania. Both attended the pro-Israel Administration AIPAC Policy Conference this year. MELBOURNE: ROSEMARY SANDLER, RENA LANGBERG Quite simply, anti-Israel posturing is anathema to the vast majority of Americans, SYDNEY: LOUISE DE MESQUITA including Democrats. Israel Liaison PETER ADLER Meanwhile, despite a divisive domestic record, the Trump Administration can point to Founding Chairmen Middle East policies that have been innovative, led to clear successes and should inform ISADOR MAGID AM (OBM) ROBERT ZABLUD (OBM) future administrations. Far from setting the Arab street aflame as critics warned, the deci-
HEAD OFFICE sions to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, remove financial incentives for Level 1, 22 Albert Road, South Melbourne, VIC 3205, Australia Palestinian intransigence, and promote a vision of two-state peace grounded in current Telephone: (03) 9681 6660 Fax: (03) 9681 6650 realities led to September’s historic and transformative Abraham Accords. These treaties Email: [email protected] are not only bringing peace and normalisation between Israel and the United Arab Emir- SYDNEY OFFICE ates (UAE) and Bahrain, but transforming the whole Mideast geopolitical landscape, with 140 William Street East Sydney, NSW 2011, Australia more Arab and Muslim countries expected to follow. Telephone: (02) 9360 5415 Email: [email protected] Trump’s 2018 decision to withdraw from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Ac-
SUBSCRIPTIONS tion (JCPOA) nuclear deal was an important step that led to applying maximum pressure Please send all remittances, changes of address and subscription inquiries to: on Iran, including a possible pathway for a renegotiated agreement. It is essential to close Australia/Israel Review Level 1, 22 Albert Road the dangerous loopholes and major gaps in that deal which Iran has been using to both South Melbourne, VIC 3205, Australia continue its long-term plans to develop nuclear missiles and supercharge destabilising ISSN No. 1442-3693 Print Post Approved – 100007869 behaviour and support for terrorism in the region. 4 www.aijac.org.au Differences between Democrats and Republicans over Trump’s handling of the Iran
AIR – November 2020 nuclear threat conceal the fact that wariness over Iran is Biden’s unqualified support for the Abraham Accords, bipartisan, with 88% of Americans currently holding an much like his announcement that he would keep the US unfavourable view of the country, according to Gallup. embassy in Jerusalem, indicates this process of accepting On Israel, regional Middle Eastern concerns and threats current realities is well underway. like Iran, the majority of Democrats and Republicans do Regardless of who the next US president is, there is EDITORIAL not disagree greatly on the broader strokes of foreign good reason to hope and believe that the next administra- policy, only on how to best achieve their common goals. tion will: An exception to this was the Obama Administration’s 1. Sustain the military and financial pressure on Iran’s Iran deal, a 180-degree turn regime to curtail its violent, that never had the support of “Despite a divisive domestic record, the destablising activities and Congress – or indeed public Trump Administration can point to Middle agree to a new deal which opinion, according to polls. East policies that have been innovative, led genuinely ends Teheran’s quest Should Biden prevail, he to clear successes and should inform future for nuclear weapons; 2. Support Egypt, Jor- would be wise to reconsider administrations” his stated intent to have the dan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, US return to the JCPOA, and Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait in then seek a renegotiated deal – a sequence which would their battle against both Iranian threats and transnational dangerously weaken US leverage. Muslim Brotherhood subversion and violence encouraged Hopefully, potential Biden administration policymakers by Turkey and Qatar; will reflect on current realities and take new developments 3. Build on the Abraham Accords, expanding the circle since 2015 into account. Iran has violated not only the of Arab and Muslim partners with Israel, while recognising JCPOA, but the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as well, the limited and negative role accorded the Palestinian issue and had its pretence of seeking a peaceful nuclear program by the Arab states. destroyed thanks to the Iranian nuclear archive seized by 4. Recognise the reality that Palestinian promotion of Israeli intelligence in 2018. hate education and terrorism is an ideologically-driven Likewise, in terms of peacemaking between Israel and phenomenon that must be confronted to make peace pos- the Palestinians, a Biden administration would need to sible, not a product of despair which must be appeased. adapt to a fundamentally changed landscape. The advent 5. Continue to invest in the extraordinary US-Israel of peace and normalisation between Israel and an increas- relationship, based on both shared values as well as shared ing number of Arab and Muslim countries has rendered interests, which has brought much larger benefits to the the old paradigm, whereby the Palestinian issue had to be United States than costs. resolved before Israeli-Arab normalisation could occur, Regardless of who wins on Nov. 3, if the next US ad- obsolete. The opposite today appears much more plau- ministration follows these guidelines, not only the US and sible – Arab-Israel normalisation might be key to initiatives its Middle East allies, but most of the world, including of leading to a future peace deal with the Palestinians. course Australia, will benefit significantly.
general legislative elections… Know that we are one people.” Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas at a meeting of all WORD Palestinian faction heads following Israel’s normalisation with the UAE FOR WORD and Bahrain (Times of Israel, Sept. 24).
“It was indeed an historic visit, to start opening relations be- “No nation that desires a peaceful Middle East should contem- tween both countries, to have fruitful bilateral relations in both plate arms sales with Iran – every weapon the regime buys will fields.” be at the disposal of its radical ideology. We are prepared to use Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani after a signing domestic authorities to sanction individuals or entities contrib- ceremony in Manama formalising full diplomatic relations with Israel uting to these arms sales.” (ABC, Oct. 19). US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo after the official expiration of the UN’s arms embargo on Iran (Twitter, Oct. 19). “We hope Saudi Arabia will consider normalising its relation- ships as well. We want to thank them for the assistance they’ve “Jerusalem is our city, a city from us… With this understanding, had in the success of the Abraham Accords so far.” we will follow both the Palestinian cause, which is the bleeding US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo after meeting with the Saudi wound of the global conscience, and the Jerusalem case to the Foreign Minister (Yahoo! News, Oct. 15). end.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaking at the opening of “We will work to end division, achieve reconciliation, and hold the Turkish Parliament (Jerusalem Post, Oct. 2). 5
AIR – November 2020 steady at roughly 15% throughout the past three decades … after a dramatic increase in the previous three (from zero). The place where the demographic balance changed, interestingly, is inside Israel, where the Arab population COLUMNS NAME OF SECTION Tzvi Fleischer grew in the same period from 17% to 22%.” • “The number of Israelis settling in the West Bank has THE ‘SETTLEMENTS KILLED TWO STATES’ dropped rather dramatically in the past generation. In LIE 1996, 6,000 Israelis migrated from Israel into the West It has become a widely proclaimed truism that the Bank; twenty years later in 2016 that number fell to only growth of Israeli settlements in the West Bank over recent 2000. Nearly all the growth of Jewish population in the years has destroyed any hopes for a two-state Israeli-Pales- West Bank has been from births, not from ‘settling’ at all.” tinian peace. • “Looking just at the past fifteen years…nearly all A look at the totality of the actual evidence, as op- the population growth was concentrated in two ultra- posed to cherry-picked claims about raw settler numbers, Orthodox settlements with high birth rates, Beitar Ilit shows this is obviously untrue, as AIJAC has repeatedly and Modiin Ilit… I urge everyone to open up a map and documented. look where those two are. One starts about 600 meters from the old armistice line and the other about 700 metres.” Mor is actually personally quite critical of the settlement enterprise, terming it a “moral and strate- gic catastrophe for Israel.” Yet, as he says: “If a two-state solution was geographically and de- mographically possible in 1993, it was still possible in 2000. And if it was possible in 2000, it was still possible in 2008. And if it was possible in 2008, it was still possible in 2014, and it is still possible now. Nothing on the ground has changed in those years to affect the feasibility of partition except for the rapid Claims about West Bank settlement growth are often either demonstably wrong disentanglement in the 1990’s of the Palestinian and or very incomplete Israeli economies… and this … makes two states Israeli scholar Shany Mor of the Israel Democracy Insti- more, not less, feasible.” tute has done a remarkably clear and comprehensive job of Those falsely claiming that settlements have destroyed assembling the evidence that demolishes this lie in a newly any hope for a two-state peace often follow up with the published essay responding to recent writings by American claim that, because of this reality, there must be a “one- anti-Zionist Peter Beinart (“Peter Beinart’s Grotesque Uto- state solution” whereby Israel, the West Bank and Gaza will pia” Medium, Sept. 17). It is worth quoting his key points at be replaced by a “state with equal rights for all citizens,” some length: which would inevitably have a Palestinian majority. This • “Twenty-five years ago, during the Oslo peace process, is, in fact, a sophisticated-sounding new variation on the developed areas of Israeli settlements took up less than old disingenuous PLO demand that Israel must be eradi- 2% of West Bank land. There were at the dawn of Oslo cated and replaced by a “secular democratic state in all of a total of 118 settlements in the West Bank (figures are Palestine.” taken from Peace Now’s invaluable settlement database). Thus, anyone who tells you settlements have destroyed In 2000, when [Palestinian leader Yasser] Arafat rejected all hopes for a two-state peace likely either has a sinister a peace deal that would have created a Palestinian state in agenda themselves, or has been grossly misled by someone the West Bank and Gaza Strip, built-up settlement areas who does. were still just under 2% of West Bank land and the total number was 123. Today, the settlements still take up MORE PALESTINIAN MONEY MADNESS less than 2% of West Bank land, and the total number is Last month in this column I discussed how the Palestin- somewhere around 127… The geographical distribution ian Authority (PA) was self-destructively refusing to accept of Jews in the West Bank has not materially changed at all Palestinian tax money collected by Israel to supposedly in the past 27 years (1993–2020).” protest Israeli plans to extend sovereignty to parts of the • “Just as the geography didn’t change very much in the West Bank – even though Israel has suspended any such past three decades, nor did the demography. The Jewish plans for at least the next few years. 6 population of the West Bank and East Jerusalem has been This is not the only way in which the PA is turning
AIR – November 2020 down desperately needed money for strange reasons. The Israelis are going to be somewhat disappointed. No PA is also insisting that Palestinian NGOs reject aid money matter: Israelis’ preferences are of zero importance in an rather than agree not to give that money to terrorists. American election. Still, the election holds implications for The European Union and its member states, who pro- Israel. President Trump proved that it is within the power vide most of the funding for most Palestinian NGOs, have of a determined president to change realities. Trump COLUMNS NAME OF SECTION recently been insisting that NGOs that take their money moved the US embassy to Jerusalem; his Democratic chal- sign a clause saying they will not give that money to EU- lenger Joe Biden clarified that he will not move it back to recognised terrorist groups. This demand is long overdue Tel Aviv. Trump recognised Israeli sovereignty over the – there is ample evidence of aid to Palestinian NGOs end- Golan; Biden is deciding whether to make this an issue for ing up with members of internationally-banned terrorist debate. groups, especially the Popular Front for the Liberation of There are other policies that Biden is more likely to Palestine (PFLP) which is highly active in the Palestinian change. Policy toward Iran is the most important example. NGO sector. A Democratic administration will want to reinstate former However, the PA’s Civil Society Organisations Com- president Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear deal. But that’s not mission, headed by Major General Sultan Abu Al-Enein, is easy. threatening Palestinian NGOs not to agree to the Euro- Time has passed and circumstances have changed: Israel pean conditions for funding. Speaking to the official PA and the Gulf states have become closer and can use their news agency WAFA on Oct. 12, Al-Enein said if groups leverage against a weaker Iran. Importantly, if Biden rein- accepted such conditional funding, it would be a “national states the Iran deal, it will not be his legacy – it will be that betrayal and a departure from the national ranks, and will of President Obama and former Secretary of State John not pass without punishment… the competent authorities Kerry. There’s an opportunity here for Israel and the Gulf will work to prosecute these institutions.” states to argue that a Biden administration has the time and The Palestinians have been heavily dependent on in- leeway to consider important changes before it rejoins a ternational aid of various sorts for a long time – and their treaty with Iran. sense of entitlement to it seems to have reached dangerous To push for these changes effectively, Israel must pre- and self-destructive levels. pare for a new reality and quickly get over its disappoint- ment when Trump loses. Israel must look at Biden not as an obstacle but rather as an opportunity. He can help Israel solidify its relations with the Democratic Party. He can help legitimise Israeli policies in the eyes of suspicious Americans. And he can help Israel prove that Israelis have Shmuel Rosner no political preferences (Republicans over Democrats) – just policy preferences (strong on Iran over weaker on WHY ISRAELIS PREFER TRUMP Iran). A recently released poll from i24News told us what Are Israelis ready for this process of necessary adjust- we already know: Most Israelis want Donald Trump to ment? Their leaders – the Prime Minister, Foreign Minis- remain president. And no, this is not about him being a ter, and senior diplomats – are ready. They understand that Republican. In fact, four years ago, when Trump was still the game is almost over. They know that while it’s impor- relatively unknown (as a politician), a majority of Israe- tant to keep Trump on Israel’s side, and even allow him lis believed Hillary Clinton was the better candidate for to utilise Israel in his campaign, it is also essential not to Israel. Now, having seen him in action, having seen what alienate the incoming administration. Biden and Netanyahu decisions he makes, Israelis see Trump as favourable to are both experienced enough to know how such politick- their country. ing can be done within proper boundaries. Many Americans, especially Jewish Americans, will look As for the rest of Israel’s citizenry, trust in the Biden at this fact with a sense of horror. But there is no reason to administration really depends on what Biden will be doing. be horrified. Israelis are merely being well-mannered in Will he begin his term using soothing words and a friendly reciprocating Trump’s amiability towards their country. approach, or will he follow Obama’s example of putting But Trump is losing – well, he is probably losing, based daylight between the countries? Will he communicate with on mid-October’s polls. And I know that many Americans Teheran without first consulting with Israel’s leaders, or will hesitate to reach such a conclusion because of Trump’s follow Trump’s example of no mutual surprises? surprise win four years ago. And yet, polls are polls, and Israel is worried about a repeat of Obama, and it has evidence is evidence. And those of us who prioritise facts the tendency to show defiance at the first sign of difficulty. over fears and data over gut feelings know that Trump is But regardless of whether Biden repeats Obama’s policy of unlikely to be re-elected. distance or chooses his own path (my guess, he will not be 7
AIR – November 2020 an Obama repeat), Israel must prepare to engage with him, Baso, an Indonesian suicide bomber-in-training, is as a friend. believed to have been killed by troops on Aug. 29. He was wanted in Indonesia for his alleged involvement in a bomb Shmuel Rosner is senior political editor of the Jewish Journal of attack at the Oikumene Church in Samarinda, East Kali- COLUMNS NAME OF SECTION Los Angeles (jewishjournal.com) © Shmuel Rosner, reprinted by mantan, in 2016, and was part of the IS-affiliated Jamaah permission, all rights reserved. Ansharut Daulah militant network in Makassar, South Sulawesi. Rullie and her husband were believed to have been under the wing of Mundi Sawadjaan, a bomb maker who masterminded a twin suicide bomb attack, also on Jolo, that killed 15 people on Aug. 24. Mundi is the nephew of Hatib Hajan Sawadjaan, the Philippine IS commander and a Michael Shannon senior Abu Sayyaf leader. Meanwhile, authorities announced on Oct. 12 that ISIS SNEAKING BACK police and military troops had captured three Abu Sayyaf Amid the all-consuming distraction of the global CO- militants who allegedly acted as “financial conduits” be- VID-19 pandemic, Islamic extremist militants in Southeast tween the IS and Sawadjaan. Asia have not been idle. Recent signs point to an uptick in One detainee, Abdulman Sarapuddin Tula, is known to recruitment and a renewed threat of violent attacks, despite be Sawadjaan’s procurement and logistics supply person on security services continuing to apprehend high-value targets. Jolo, while another, Kadija Sadji, is believed to be the wife The Philippine military has been ordered to monitor the of Al Asgar, son of the late Abu Sayyaf founder, Abdurajak operations of Islamic schools nationwide amid intelligence Abubakar Janjalani. reports that they are being used as a breeding ground for Arrests of key operatives disrupt the command and lo- new militants. Military chief Gen. Gilbert Gapay told an gistics structures of militant cells and almost certainly save online forum with the Foreign Correspondents’ Association lives by preventing planned attacks, yet analysts harbour no of the Philippines that the security sector would monitor illusions about the ongoing threat. schools in Sulu and other parts of Mindanao to prevent the Mizan Aslam, a counter-terrorism expert at Universiti possible infiltration of militants linked to the Islamic State Perlis Malaysia, told BenarNews that Islamic State is trying (IS). Internet-savvy IS propagandists have been enticing chil- to regroup after its territorial defeat in Syria. “ISIS never dren through social media, he said. died,” he said. “Only we said they died, but they themselves “We have found out that some of those who surrendered never declared it… With all countries focusing on health and [were] captured – quite a number of them – have been security and food security, it has given ISIS room to sneak recruited and radicalised through social media,” he said. in.” The General’s comments came days after the arrest of “Recruitment is through social media and not just Ma- Rezky Fantasya Rullie, a young Indonesian woman allegedly laysia but in the global community affected by [COVID-19] plotting a suicide attack in Jolo, the main island in the Sulu lockdowns,” Aslam added. “People are staying home longer chain and a hotbed of Abu Sayyaf activity. Arrested along- and going through social media non-stop, so the chances of side her were Inda Nurhaina and Fatima Sandra Jimlani, being influenced are there. Islamic State is also seen to have both wives of ranking Abu Sayyaf members, officials said. A doubled up their effort in dispersing propaganda materials suicide vest, bombs and improvised explosive device-making on social media.” components were recovered from the trio. Christopher Miller, director of the US National Rullie had reportedly been under surveillance for Counterterrorism Centre, says IS “continues to prioritise months due to deep connections with jihadist activity. the expansion and reinforcement of its global enter- Her parents, Rullie Rian Zeke and Ulfah Handayani prise, which now encompasses some 20 branches and Saleh, had carried out a twin suicide bombing at the Our networks.” Lady of Mount Carmel church on Jolo that killed 23 in- Speaking to a hearing of the US House Homeland Se- cluding themselves in January 2019. Rullie has two siblings curity Committee in September, Miller said the US and its – a brother aged 10, and a sister aged 20 – who are report- partner countries have successfully targeted prominent IS edly being trained as suicide bombers. figures, but the group has proved resilient. “Despite these Indonesian officials say Rullie’s family tried to join IS successes, ISIS has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to in Syria but Turkish authorities had rejected them in early rebound from severe losses over the past six years by rely- 2017. Then, in 2018, they illegally entered the southern ing on a dedicated cadre of veteran mid-level command- Philippines via Malaysia with the help of Andi Baso, who ers, extensive clandestine networks, and downturns in CT 8 Rullie later married. [counterterrorism] pressure to persevere.”
AIR – November 2020 Peters had earned credit with the Jewish community for being one of the few politicians to publicly criticise New Zealand’s co-sponsorship of the anti-Israel UN Secu- rity Council Resolution 2334 in 2016. However, he then NAME OF SECTION Miriam Bell disappointed as Foreign Minister by failing to ameliorate COLUMNS New Zealand’s voting pattern on Israel at the United Na- LABOUR’S LANDSLIDE tions or condemn Palestinian attacks on Israel. It was always going to be a fascinating result. Held Peters’ departure means there are huge question marks in the shadow of COVID-19, the pandemic cast a huge over who might take the influential role of foreign minis- shadow over New Zealand’s general election. ter. There are no immediately obvious candidates for the And the Labour-led government’s largely successful role at this stage. response to COVID played a big part in the polls. It also Another longstanding friend of Israel who is now led to the postponement of the original election date and departing Parliament is Alfred Ngaro, who was chairman focused much of the campaign on the COVID recovery. of the Israeli-NZ Parliamentary Friendship Group. His The polls had consistently shown that Labour was on departure leaves not only the chair of the friendship group course to win – and win the party did. A landslide of red vacant but question marks over its future, given Ngaro was handed Labour the first ever outright majority since the the driving force behind its establishment. country’s mixed member proportional representation Israel Institute co-director David Cumin said it is sad (MMP) electoral system was introduced in 1996. to see some very supportive MPs exit parliament – in Labour won 49.1% of the vote, which translates to at particular Alfred Ngaro and Tim Macindoe, “But we look least 64 seats in the 120-seat Parliament. This means Prime forward to engaging with all the incoming MPs so they Minister Jacinda Ardern’s party can govern alone, without better understand issues around Israel.” the support – and demands – of coalition partners. Going forward, Cumin says the Labour party has been From 2017 to 2020 Labour governed with the Green outspoken about its desire to address hate speech. For that Party and New Zealand First as its partners. This time reason, the Institute hopes one of its first steps will be to round, things will be different. For a start, New Zea- stop Kiwi taxpayer funding of antisemitism and incitement land First, the party of the country’s longest-serving MP that is taught to children in UNRWA (United Nations Re- and outgoing Foreign Minister Winston Peters, failed to lief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees) schools. achieve the necessary 5% to return to Parliament. “It would also be consistent for the Labour leaders to By contrast, the Green Party achieved a good result. It condemn the antisemitism of [Labour MP] Dr. Duncan won 7.6% of the vote, earning it 10 parliamentary seats. Webb, who has accused Jews of controlling US politics and Additionally, 26-year-old Chloe Swarbrick won the Auck- promoted the discriminatory BDS campaign. land Central electorate for the Greens. This made her the “While James Shaw, co-leader of the Green Party, first Green MP to win an electorate seat since 1999. has done so, we hope the new New Zealand govern- Yet, despite the Greens’ strong showing, Labour’s ment follows him and other liberal democracies including outright majority means the Greens are likely to have less Germany, Austria, Canada and Spain to counter racism power than last term. and discrimination with a statement that recognises and While Ardern looks likely to come to some sort of ar- condemns the antisemitism inherent in the BDS campaign.” rangement with them, she has emphasised that her govern- Ardern was strong in designating the Christchurch ter- ment will be governing for all New Zealanders, suggesting rorist as such and the Institute hopes she will, in line with that Green policies which have concerned centrist voters other liberal democracies, take a strong stance on Hezbol- (e.g. a wealth tax) are not likely to make much headway. lah, Hamas and the PFLP, Cumin says. “These groups are Little was said about foreign policy during the cam- not currently recognised as terror entities in New Zealand paign. There was not much detail in the foreign policy but are recognised by countries including Canada, Ger- documents the parties released in the lead-up to the many, the United Kingdom and Paraguay.” election. This means that where the next government will The Institute also looks forward to the Labour Govern- stand on foreign policy is uncertain – although a huge de- ment continuing the momentum that was started with the parture from New Zealand’s conventional stance on issues signing of the NZ-ISR innovation agreement between New seems unlikely. Zealand and Israel last year, he added. But what does the new Labour government, and the big For the Jewish community in New Zealand, the Labour swing to the centre-left, mean for the Jewish community? Government is expected to continue its recent efforts at Well, for a start, it means some MPs who have been relationship building. But how the new Government ap- supportive of the Jewish community are leaving Parlia- proaches issues to do with Israel is a more complex ques- ment. The most obvious of these is Winston Peters. tion and few answers appear available at this stage. 9
AIR – November 2020 BEHIND THE NEWS BEHIND THE ROCKET AND TERROR sceptical any elections will eventuate, On Oct. 20, the IDF identified a given repeated similar announcements ANOTHER UNDECLARED new tunnel leading from southern in the past. IRANIAN NUCLEAR SITE? Gaza into Israel. A rocket was fired On Oct. 16, the Iranian opposition into Israel from Gaza the same day, group MEK exposed an alleged un- leading to Israeli counter-strikes. HAMAS CHARGES GAZA declared nuclear site in Iran. Accord- Single rockets were also fired into PEACE ACTIVISTS ing to the group, the facility, built in Israel from Gaza on Oct. 5 and Oct. After close to five months of 2012, is located east of Teheran, near 16. detention in Hamas-controlled Gaza, a missile compound where an explo- On Sept. 30 the IDF apprehended two of three Palestinian peace activists sion occurred in June 2020. two suspects who crossed into Israel arrested for holding a Zoom meeting From 2017 the site has been from Gaza and threw an inactive gre- with Israelis and other young people staffed by personnel from the Min- nade at soldiers. in April were publicly charged on istry of Defence’s Organisation of A stabbing attack was thwarted on Sept. 26 with “weakening revolution- Defensive Innovation and Research Oct. 5 in the West Bank. ary spirit”. (SPND). MEK accused SPND and A ceasefire deal, coordinated Hamas officials have previously ac- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard with Qatar, was reportedly reached cused the activists of participating in a Corps of illegal procurement of spe- between Israel and Hamas in early “normalisation activity” and declared cial Russian seismometers for the site. October, with Hamas agreeing to six any communication with Israel “a Experts suspect that this site was months of quiet and Qatar transfer- crime punishable by law and a be- used for geophysical experiments, ring US$100 million into Gaza. trayal of our people and its sacrifices.” involving explosion imaging, required On Oct. 13, the Israeli military for the development of a nuclear announced that its forces had crossed bomb trigger. from the Golan Heights into Syria ISRAEL REVEALS MORE On Sept. 30, the IAEA announced the previous week and destroyed two HEZBOLLAH MISSILE that it had inspected and taken Syrian military outposts in a re- SITES samples from a suspect Iranian site it sponse to Syrian troops entering the During his Sept. 29 remote speech had wanted to visit for some months, demilitarised zone between the two to the UN General Assembly, Israeli the second this year. countries. PM Binyamin Netanyahu exposed a site inside Beirut used by Hezbollah to produce and store missiles. This facil- NEW US SANCTIONS PALESTINIAN ELECTIONS ity is located amidst civilian dwellings AGAINST IRAN IN QUESTION and next to a gas depot. Later, the On Oct. 8 the US Trump Admin- The rival Palestinian factions Fatah IDF released information about two istration imposed penalties on 18 and Hamas reportedly reached an additional underground missile sites Iranian banks in its latest round of agreement during September to hold under residential buildings within the sanctions against the regime, aimed at elections, the first since 2006, in the Lebanese capital. pressuring Iran to return to negotia- Palestinian Authority (PA) within six An attempt by Hezbollah to refute tions to limit its nuclear program and months. The details have yet to be Netanyahu’s claims by inviting report- end its support of regional terror- finalised, even after several rounds of ers to tour the site backfired. Images ist proxies. The likely effect of the reconciliation deliberations in recent taken by journalists revealed ma- sanctions would be to exclude Iran weeks in Turkey and Qatar between chinery used to manufacture various from the global financial system. The senior Fatah officials, headed by missile and engine components. The move came shortly before the Oct. 18 Jibril Rajoub, and Hamas representa- manager of the site interviewed on expiration of a UN arms embargo, a tives. One option discussed was to camera was later identified by the IDF change the US claims to have reversed run a joint list of both groups for the as a Hezbollah operative involved in by invoking the “snapback” provision parliament. the precision missile project, who had at the UN Security Council. Both Palestinians and other visited Iran several times. 10 informed observers are reportedly
AIR – November 2020 ISRAEL SIGNS Talks were mediated by the United ceasing all coordination with Israel to AGREEMENTS WITH States and United Nations, which said protest promises made by Israeli PM BAHRAIN AND JORDAN in a joint statement, “the representa- Binyamin Netanyahu to extend Israeli tives held productive talks and reaf- sovereignty to areas in the West Bank.
firmed their commitment to continue However, as part of the recent NEWS BEHIND THE negotiations later this month.” normalisation agreement between Despite the positive step, both Israel and the UAE, those plans are nations have cautioned that the talks currently off the table. are not a harbinger of broader peace negotiations. CORONAVIRUS IN ISRAEL Israeli National Security Adviser Meir Ben- AND PA Shabbat in Manama, Bahrain AUSTRALIA HALVES By the week ending Oct. 16, Israel and Bahrain formalised their UNRWA FUNDING Israel’s rate of new coronavirus infec- preliminary normalisation agreement In the Federal budget handed tions appeared to be trending down- signed in Washington on Sept. 15 at an down on Oct. 6, Australia’s contribu- ward from recent peaks. With the Oct. 18 ceremony in Bahrain’s capital, tion to the United Nations Relief and country in lockdown and extra health Manama. Israeli National Security Ad- Works Agency for Palestine Refugees resources brought in from the IDF to viser Meir Ben-Shabbat and Bahraini (UNRWA) was halved from US$20 support the country’s overwhelmed Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid million in 2019-2020 to US$10 mil- health system, the seven-day average Al-Zayani signed eight agreements, lion in 2020-2021. of new cases dropped to 2123. Deaths including a “Joint Communiqué on Meanwhile it was reported on too were stabilising, with the total the establishment of diplomatic, Oct. 7 that the European Union has death toll reaching 2127 as of Oct. peaceful, and friendly relations.” told the PA it would not advance it 16. Israel’s lockdown began to be The US was represented at the loans and other financial assistance eased on Oct. 18. ceremony by Treasury Secretary Steve while the PA refuses to accept tax rev- On the West Bank and in Gaza, Mnuchin. enues held on its behalf by Israel. numbers have been lower than in Israel’s airport and civil aviation Since mid-year, the PA has rejected Israel. There the seven-day average of authorities also signed a historic new the transfers after announcing it was new cases was 403. aviation agreement in early October with their Jordanian counterparts PA TV, this is done to “encourage violence allowing the two nations to use each and murder in Palestinian society”. other’s airspace for the first time. Oddly, those dastardly clever Israelis In a joint statement, the two must be very confident indeed that the countries’ aviation authorities ac- OH, SHOOT! weapons they’re supposedly supplying knowledged the deal, planned over a The Palestinian leadership has a well- will be used by Palestinians only against number of years, was accelerated by known tendency to shoot itself in the foot, each other and never against Israeli sol- the recent UAE and Bahrain peace metaphorically speaking at least, but now, diers or civilians. agreements, and the recent his- apparently, sneaky Zionists are conniving In a strikingly similar claim, the of- toric Saudi decision to allow Israeli to get Palestinians to shoot themselves ficial PA news agency WAFA had earlier overflight. literally as well. The villainous Israelis have claimed that Israel “whose goal is to supposedly hit upon the perfect stratagem destroy the Palestinian society” was “the to harm Palestinians: give ‘em guns. main source of the fireworks... [that have] ISRAEL, LEBANON IN Appearing on the official Palestinian contributed to turning parties and joyful DIRECT TALKS Authority (PA) TV station, PA Security occasions into sad events.” Israeli and Lebanese officials met Forces spokesman Adnan Al-Damiri Just when you think the Palestinian on Oct. 14 at a border post to begin held Israel responsible for the danger- habit of blaming Israel for all their woes, talks to resolve a maritime border ous Palestinian habit of firing guns in the including those they inflict on them- dispute that has been complicated by air at weddings and other celebrations, selves, can’t get any more ridiculous, they the discovery of offshore resource accusing Israel of not only allowing but prove you wrong. If violence and danger- deposits. encouraging Israelis to sell rifles to Pales- ous accidents are increasing in Palestinian It is the first time since the 1990s tinian weapons dealers. society, it must have nothing to do with that there have been talks between the And why? Well, according to PA Po- the Palestinians. Blame those fiendishly countries, which legally remain at war. lice Spokesman Col. Luay Erziqat, also on clever Israelis – somehow, anyhow! 11
AIR – November 2020 COVER STORY NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES FROM WASHINGTON TO TEHERAN
IRAN AND THE US ELECTIONS
by Lahav Harkov
he coming weeks have October that, from Oct. 18, Tthe potential to be dra- “we can sell our weapons to matic ones when it comes to whomever we want and buy Iran. The UN arms embargo weapons from whomever we on Iran was meant to expire want.” on Sunday, Oct. 18, but in But many experts think August the US activated that Iran is not going to “snapback sanctions,” a make a move immediately mechanism in the 2015 Iran after the sanctions’ maybe- deal that would cancel its expiration date. “sunset clauses” lifting vari- The Iranian nuclear ous sanctions on the Islamic program and its ongoing Republic. In other words, violations of the JCPOA are the US tried to make sure expected to stay in a holding the arms embargo would Donald Trump and Joe Biden: Both are likely to seek a “better deal” position at least until after not expire – and no other with Iran the US presidential election country countered that on Nov. 3. Before making move during the month in which that was possible. their next move, the Iranians want to know whether US Since the US left the Joint Comprehensive Plan of President Donald Trump will be re-elected, or whether Action (JCPOA), as the deal is known, in 2018, the other Democratic nominee Joe Biden will take his place. parties to the agreement say the US does not have the Israel is also closely eyeing the US election for a num- authority to reinstate sanctions, and they will view the ber of reasons, the Iran nuclear threat being a major one. embargo as having been lifted. However, the US argues And while Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s enthusi- that sanctions and the snapback are part of UN Security asm for the Trump Administration – which polling shows Council Resolution 2331, which lists the US specifically as is matched by most of the Israeli public – is well known, a party, and not just the JCPOA. both candidates’ statements on Iran have raised concerns. All of this is to say that in upcoming weeks there could Trump’s Iran policy, in many ways, is perfectly in line be a showdown between Russia and China, which want with what Netanyahu would want. The US left the Iran to sell Iran weapons, and the US, which has been using its deal, with the sunset clauses and lack of enforcement that economic might to enforce sanctions on the regime for the so worried Israel, shortly after Netanyahu revealed the past two years and announced further measures over the Mossad’s sweeping operation of clearing out Iran’s nuclear past few months. archives. The subsequent “maximum pressure” sanctions 12 Iranian President Hassan Rouhani declared in mid- campaign on Teheran is praised by much of the political
AIR – November 2020 spectrum in Jerusalem. Former Israeli ambassador to the US Michael Oren But in recent months, Trump has been saying again and expressed concern that the Iranians will find it difficult again, including when Netanyahu was in the Oval Office in to negotiate while under sanctions, which is what Trump September, that he wants to negotiate with Iran. seeks to lead them to do, and may lash out so the US will
“I really believe Iran wants to make a deal,” Trump said. provide them with relief. NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES “They’ve had a very tough time. Their GDP is down 27% “They might try to destabilise the region by picking a because of the sanctions and all of the other things. And I fight with us. It hasn’t worked to pick a fight with Saudi don’t want that to happen.... After the election, we have to Arabia; it kind of backfired for them. We have to remain make a better deal. I do say that. We’re vigilant about that,” Oren said. going to make a better deal than we “Trump’s Iran policy, in In Trump-led negotiations, Oren would have. many ways, is perfectly in said, the results depend on “how much “If Biden wins, they’ll make a much line with what Netanyahu more of an improved JCPOA [Trump] better deal,” Trump said, but then he would want” would want to seek in a second term.” added: “I’m going to make a deal that’s Iran taking a harder line could lead great for Iran. It’s going to get them to Trump compromising, Evental wrote, back. We’re going to help them in every way possible. And because Trump will seek to fulfil his campaign promise Iran will be very happy.” to quickly close a deal with Iran that still has elements that endanger Israel, like sunset clauses, centrifuge de- rump’s theory is that the Iranians prefer a Biden vic- velopment and not enough inspections of Iran’s nuclear Ttory – and all the experts the Jerusalem Post spoke to program. agree on that part – but if Trump is re-elected, he thinks Then, Trump will seek to spin the bad deal as a good the Iranians will realise they cannot withstand four more one. years of maximum sanctions pressure and will enter Biden laid out his view on the Iran deal in an op-ed for talks, with the US having the upper hand. CNN in September. “Maximum pressure” of the kind the Trump Admin- Biden, like the Trump Administration, vowed to “work istration is putting on Iran is what brought Iran to the closely with Israel to ensure it can defend itself against Iran negotiating table last time. As former Israeli National and its proxies.” Security Council chairman and senior fellow at the Jeru- He also said the US would continue using “targeted salem Institute for Strategy and Security Maj.-Gen. (ret.) sanctions” in response to Iranian human rights abuses, its Yaakov Amidror said this week: “It was proven in the past, sponsorship of terrorism and its ballistic missile program. despite what most experts said at the time, the Iranians As for the Iran deal, Biden wrote that he has an “un- were willing to discuss their nuclear plan when they had shakable commitment to prevent Iran from acquiring a no alternative.” nuclear weapon.” However, Amidror said, “the Americans acted unprofes- Biden’s plan is to encourage Iran to return to com- sionally in the negotiations and brought a bad deal.” plying with the JCPOA, at which point the US would Amidror was cautious in trying to predict Trump’s or “rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on Biden’s behaviour, saying that the result of the JCPOA negotiations.” “doesn’t mean it’ll necessarily be a bad deal next time.” Biden was also dismissive of the Trump Administration’s But other experts said Trump’s mercurial approach to attempt at snapping back sanctions, indicating that he may policy, his enthusiasm for “the art of the deal” and the fact not enforce those measures. that he will be in his second term and no longer need to In other words, Biden wants to revive the Iran deal, appeal to his voter base could lead to a disastrous result for including the sunset clauses, and then improve on it. But Israel. he does not specify what those improvements would be. Col. (ret.) Udi Evental wrote an analysis of the conse- Evental said Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security quences of Trump’s and Biden’s declared policies on the adviser when Biden was vice president and current adviser Iran deal. on foreign policy, pointed out that the last two years have In the scenario in which Trump is elected, Evental proven the US can effectively implement sanctions even wrote, the Iranian regime will try to avoid “crawling on when other world powers oppose them, and Iran is aware all fours” back to the negotiating table in a way that would of that. Evental interpreted these remarks as Sullivan say- make it look weak and susceptible to pressure. ing these sanctions would be an implicit threat to Iran if it As such, he posited, “Iran may expand the amount and refuses to negotiate a stronger version of the JCPOA. the level of its violations [of the JCPOA], to have more Amidror said “the JCPOA is a terrible agreement, and cards to play with in the negotiations” and it may “demand even Biden says it’s bad, because he says it needs to get compensation for its willingness to return to negotiations.” better. 13
AIR – November 2020 “The question is, what of sanctions relief. In is better?” he added, recent years, Iran used saying Biden realises the that money to surround JCPOA did not block Israel with missiles with
NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES Iran’s path to a bomb. increasingly advanced Iran is “waiting for capabilities. Former Israeli National Security Biden to save them,” “In order to stop Iran Former Israeli Ambassador to the US Council chairman Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Amidror said. “I hope from getting a bomb, Michael Oren Yaakov Amidror Biden doesn’t save them we’d have to go to war. [Iran] and they [the US] can negotiate from a position of We can’t live with a nuclear Iran, because these guys are strength.” serious. The destruction of Israel is what they’re about. It’s Evental expressed concern that Biden’s emphasis in the their essence as a regime. We’d have to act, and that means CNN op-ed on cooperation with Europe and a lack of real war,” Oren said. levers of pressure due to lifted sanctions would end up Amidror pointed out that one of the dangers of a path with an unchanged JCPOA, with the same sunset clauses. to a nuclear bomb for Iran is that other countries in the Even if Biden brings Iran back into the JCPOA fold, it Middle East will surely follow. Saudi Arabia is already mov- has violated the deal in so many ways, including developing ing in that direction, and he said Egypt and Turkey have advanced centrifuges (and feeding uranium into cascades also hinted that they will not agree to Iran being permitted of such centrifuges), that it does not seem possible for Iran to have nuclear weapons while they can’t. to roll back the knowledge and experience it has gained in “To stop the Iranians is so important. If there is a group that area, Evental said. of countries with nuclear weapons in the Middle East, the Oren said former US President Barack Obama and his unstable situation can end very badly for the entire world,” team will pressure a Biden administration to renew the he warned. agreement, because Obama views it as his greatest – and only – foreign policy achievement. Staying out of it is to hat can Israel do to try to prevent an explosive situ- admit it’s a flawed agreement. Wation, regardless of who is elected president of the “I don’t know if the changes to the deal would be cos- US in November? Make its voice heard. metic or real changes,” he said. That is not without its own difficulties. Israel will have Oren thought Biden might try to extend the sunset difficulty strongly coming out against a Trump-negotiated clauses – meaning that the various levels of sanctions deal the way it did when Obama entered the JCPOA, es- would expire at later dates than in the original JCPOA – pecially after Trump moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem, and increase inspections, and Iran would probably agree to recognised Israeli sovereignty on the Golan and fostered it. normalisation between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, But the former ambassador also said that if Biden nego- Evental said. tiates a deal “that looks a lot like the JCPOA, that’s terrible Evental also thought Biden could also be very sensitive for Israel and a prescription for war and a nuclear-armed to any public opposition by Israel on this matter, because of Iran.” Netanyahu’s public campaign against the Obama adminis- Oren posited that any JCPOA-like agreement would tration’s position, when Biden was his vice president. still give Iran a path to a nuclear bomb and allow it to Still, Evental called for Israel to make its position develop advanced centrifuges, along with the legitimacy known and reach out to the Trump Administration and the to do so. Teheran would get tens of billions of dollars Biden campaign as soon as possible to point out the weak- nesses of the JCPOA and make sure Israel is not left to deal with its problems alone, and speak about the matter With Compliments from publicly as well. “It’s important not to make the mistakes of 2015,” Oren said. “We need to be specific about what would be a good deal. The Obama Administration said no deal is good enough for the Israelis. We can’t do that this time. We have to say a good deal ends Iran’s nuclear program, removes missiles from Lebanon, eliminates advanced centrifuges and the missile program, dismantles nuclear infrastructure. “We have to publicise this. We have never done it, and Bickham Court Group we must,” he said. 14 Amidror said Israel needs to tell whoever is elected
AIR – November 2020 president that if the deal does not address Israel’s existen- Yet the ostensible expiration came after the United tial threats, Israel will have to address them through force. States enacted UN snapback sanctions on the regime in “A good agreement is one that dismantles Iran’s capa- August, a move that included extending the arms embargo bilities and doesn’t legitimise building nuclear capabilities indefinitely.
– no missile tests and no developing next-generation cen- It remains unclear, therefore, if the arms embargo is NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES trifuges. It would make Iran dismantle its nuclear facilities technically and legally lifted, or if Iran is now able to pur- not allow new facilities,” Amidror said. chase advanced weapons. “Our red line is we can’t let Iran get close to a nuclear Richard Goldberg, the former director for countering bomb,” he added. “A good deal can’t give Iran legitimacy Iran’s weapons of mass destruction at the White House Na- for enrichment or long-term nuclear development.” tional Security Council, told JNS that “US policy officially Since both Trump and Biden want to reach an agree- recognises that a snapback of UN sanctions took place and, ment with Iran, and therefore are likely to compromise as such, the arms embargo [did] not expire on October to some extent, Evental thought Israel may have to back 18th.” down from its “maximalist and unrealistic” demand of zero Goldberg, now a senior adviser at the Foundation enrichment. Instead, he suggested that making Israel’s for Defence of Democracies, cited US President Donald priorities clear and listing ways to improve its strategic bal- Trump’s executive order in September that allows the ance with Iran would be more likely to influence whoever United States to sanction anyone who sells arms to Iran in is in the White House next year. violation of the arms embargo. Oren and Amidror stayed with the Israeli position of recent years, that Iran, the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, does not have a right to enrich. Oren said the “good deal” Israel seeks is realistic if the US is willing to keep up its maximum pressure campaign. Asked whether they think Trump or Biden would be willing to keep the pressure levels high, Oren and Amidror both said they don’t know. “The best thing for Israel would be if the US president, no matter who he is, will reach a good agreement with Iran,” Amidror said. “We don’t care how it is achieved in the end, whether it’s Biden or Trump.” Can Iran now legally buy and sell missiles and other advanced arms? The US and most of the rest of the world disagree on this. Lahav Harkov is the Senior Contributing Editor of the Jerusalem Post. © Jerusalem Post (www.jpost.com), reprinted by permis- “Americans should join together on a bipartisan basis sion, all rights reserved. to support the enforcement of these sanctions to prevent arms transfers in violation of UN Security Council Resolu- tion 1929, which America believes is back in force,” said Goldberg, citing the 2010 UN embargo on arms to Iran. The US activated the mechanism in August to enact the HAS THE IRANIAN ARMS snapback sanctions under UN Security Council Resolution EMBARGO EXPIRED? 2231, which endorsed the 2015 JCPOA Iran nuclear deal and lifted six Security Council resolutions sanctioning Iran. The US withdrew in May 2018 from the nuclear deal, by Jackson Richman reimposing sanctions lifted under it and enacting new pen- alties against Iran as part of what the Trump Administration espite ongoing fears of Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weap- has called a “maximum pressure” campaign. Dons and aggression in the Middle East, the UN arms The move to enact snapback, which took effect last embargo on Teheran was scheduled to have expired on month, came after the UN Security Council failed to pass Oct. 18, allowing the Islamic Republic to purchase mis- a resolution in August to indefinitely extend the arms siles and other armaments from other countries. embargo on Iran. “Thanks to the nation’s resistance and our diplomats’ The American Jewish Committee (AJC) had expressed efforts, and despite America’s push in the past four years, alarm, saying that Oct. 18 would be “a profoundly sad and this unjust embargo is to be lifted,” said Iranian President dangerous day for global security.” Hassan Rouhani on Oct. 14. “As of Sunday, we can pur- “Thanks to UN Security Council inaction, Iran will be chase or sell arms from and to anyone we desire.” free to legally buy and sell conventional weapons without 15
AIR – November 2020 violating the JCPOA (2015 Iranian nuclear deal) or UN gering international peace and security.” restrictions,” said AJC CEO David Harris in a statement. He noted that the European Union “has its own arms “No doubt, Iran’s neighbours and countries far beyond the embargo on Iran, which expires in 2023.” Middle East will suffer the consequences of the Security Brodsky said that after Sunday, the United States will COVER STORIES NAME OF SECTION Council’s abject failure to call out the true nature of the have the major “burden of enforcement” of the UN arms regime in Tehran and contain it.” embargo. “China and Russia now are very happy. These two countries have no hesitation or compunction about openly © JNS.org, the Jewish News Syndicate. Reprinted by permis- selling weapons to Iran,” said Harris, adding that “North sion, all rights reserved. Korea, Venezuela and Turkey are similarly gleeful.” “The tragic reality is Iran today, despite major economic challenges, is more dangerous than ever as a regional and global actor,” he continued. “Iran’s tentacles are firmly in Iraq, in Syria, in Lebanon and in Gaza, trying to get into IRAN’S “BREAKOUT” the West Bank, and either directly or through its terrorist POTENTIAL AND THE US proxy, Hezbollah, are very active in Africa, in Europe, in Asia, in Latin America and continually attempting in the ELECTION United States.” United Against Nuclear Iran policy director Jason by Yossi Kuperwasser Brodsky told JNS that while America considers the arms embargo in effect still, China and Russia will likely look to sell Iran arms. ran keeps seeking ways to secure the capability to “The United States argues snapback has already hap- Iproduce a sufficient quantity of enriched uranium (SQ) pened, and plans to act as if the arms embargo will remain for two nuclear devices within a short time, in defiance in effect,” he said. of growing American economic pressure. Today, Iran He said that France, Germany, the United Kingdom, needs about three months to secure 1SQ, compared to a Russia and China “appear irresponsibly complacent with year that the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [the] sunset [clauses in the JCPOA] and refuse to recognise (JCPOA) was supposed to provide. On the other hand, Washington’s snapback. Russia and China want to preserve the Iranians’ guaranteed and “safe” pathway to having the their ability to sell arms to Iran.” capability to produce a large arsenal of nuclear weapons Brodsky noted that Russia’s ambassador to Iran, Levan in 10 years, as detailed in the JCPOA, has been severely Dzhagaryan, “proclaimed that Moscow would consider disrupted. selling Iran its S-400 [anti-aircraft] missile defence system The embargo on arms sales to and from Iran that was after Oct. 18,” and that Iranian Defence Minister Amir included in the JCPOA expired on Oct. 18, 2020, in the Hatami “visited Russia this summer, and was briefed on the view of the participants of the Iran deal. The United States S-400 during his visit to a military expo.” Therefore, “this disagrees, insisting that all UN sanctions on Iran were is cause for concern.” reimposed on Sept. 20, 2020, due to its “snapback” appli- Brodsky added that France, Germany and the United cation to the UN Security Council. At the same time, the Kingdom have “prioritised a nuclear deal, which is already US Administration also introduced unprecedentedly harsh on life support, over pleas from Arabs and Israelis alike to extend the arms embargo on Iran. In doing so, it is endan-
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Damage to the Natanz Nuclear Research Centre after the July 2, 2020 16 explosion
AIR – November 2020 economic sanctions on Iran, but the Islamist regime keeps activities in experimenting with and developing advanced moving forward with its nuclear program and blatantly centrifuges of various types for uranium enrichment. (A violates all its commitments under the JCPOA, despite summary of that report was included in the Agency’s Sept. the growing economic hardships and other setbacks it has 2 2020 periodic report on Iran.) suffered. One news account refers to Iran’s intention to install, NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES Following the explosion at the advanced centrifuge for the first time, advanced centrifuges that are now oper- production and assembly facility at the Natanz nuclear ating in the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) in Natanz, enrichment site on July 2 2020, on Sept. 8 2020 Ali Akbar in the underground enrichment Hall B. According to the Salehi, the chairman of the Atomic Energy Organisation report, this step was supposed to have been carried out but of Iran (AEOI), announced that Iran had begun construct- was postponed at the last minute. In any case, the prepara- ing a new facility for the same purpose in the mountains tions for assembling cascades of advanced centrifuges at the near the Natanz enrichment site. However, unlike the site are already in progress. Natanz facility that was hit by a mysterious explosion and It should be emphasised that such a development would was built on the surface, the new facility is underground. be another significant violation of the nuclear agreement, Meanwhile, the AEOI’s spokesman reiterated that Iran had which allows the Iranians to operate only 5,060 basic managed to unravel most centrifuges for enriching of the details related to the uranium at Natanz. It is not mysterious explosion. clear if the delay is related to Following the construc- the damage to the facility for tion of the new facility, the centrifuge assembly. Iranians might try to expe- At the pilot Fuel Enrich- dite the production of the ment Plant, Iran is enrich- advanced centrifuges. ing uranium in advanced The International Atomic experimental centrifuges, Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) developing a wide variety of periodic report published advanced centrifuges, and in September 2020 did not The Natanz enrichment facilities, photographed in September 2019 violating the timetable for include any reference to the (Google Earth). Annotations were added by the Institute for Science and R&D that is included in the explosion at Natanz or to International Security on July 3, 2020 JCPOA. Iran’s intention to build a The Iranians are also vio- new facility for the production and assembly of advanced lating their obligations by enriching uranium with 1,044 centrifuges. As a general rule, Iran is obliged to notify centrifuges in the deep underground Fordow facility near the Agency in advance about the establishment of nuclear Qom. Defiantly, Salehi declared on Sept. 13 2020 that his facilities and allow the Agency’s inspectors access to all organisation “activated an enrichment wing in the Fordow enrichment-related facilities at its nuclear sites. Still, by nuclear facility.” implication, it does not do so when it comes to centri- The use of these 1,044 centrifuges at the Fordow plant fuge production (this is one of the many holes in the for enriching uranium was in line with steps to reduce its JCPOA). commitments [emphasis added] to the nuclear deal, accord- However, news reports in August 2020 based on a ing to Salehi. “We had promised not to enrich using these restricted IAEA document extensively describe Iran’s 1,044 centrifuges, but according to the reduction of com-
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AIR – November 2020 mitments, enrichment will be done as needed, and we will Second, Brigadier General Dror Shalom, the outgo- also store the enriched materials.” ing head of the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate’s It should be pointed out that in the last year Iran has Research Division, said in an interview with Yediot Ahronot been enriching uranium to the level of 4.5% instead of the that Iran needs about two years to produce a nuclear bomb
COVER STORIES 3.67% allowed by the 2015 nuclear agreement. Iran has al- from the day it decides to do so. This may be a bit mislead- ready accumulated an amount of uranium enriched to that ing as the critical part of this period is the enrichment of level ten times greater than what it is permitted according the low-enriched uranium into high-enriched uranium, to the agreement (about 2,100 kg instead of the 202 kg and, as noted above, this requires about three months. that is allowed). Since Iran has already acquired considerable know-how to It is clear that Iran is determined to continue rapidly weaponise enriched uranium (as seen in the captured Iran expanding its capacity to produce nuclear weapons in a nuclear archives) and has already made significant progress short period. The amount of enriched uranium in its pos- in producing delivery systems, it is hard to assess how long session and its current enrichment capacity would already the other stages are going to take. allow it, if it wished, to enrich the uranium to a military Third, Shalom and others also refer to the post-Ameri- level and produce fissile can election possibilities and material for two nuclear “While an amount sufficient for the first claim that there is not much explosive devices. nuclear explosive device could be produced difference between the While an amount suf- in a little more than three months, within a two presidential candidates ficient for the first nuclear further two months Iran could have the quan- as both are interested in explosive device could be reaching an agreement with tity required to produce a second explosive produced in a little more Iran regarding its nuclear than three months, within device” program. In fact, there is a further two months Iran a considerable difference. could have the quantity required to produce a second Republican Trump seeks a deal based on Iran’s readiness to explosive device. Installing the advanced centrifuges at the accept his demands to give up the nuclear project and its enrichment site could shorten by a few weeks the time regional hegemony aspirations, whereas Democrat Biden required for military-level enrichment. (Under the JCPOA looks for a formula that will bring Iran back to a slightly agreement, Iran was supposed to be a year away from ob- improved version of the JCPOA and enable it to keep pro- taining sufficient fissile material for one explosive device.) moting its regional policy. All this is happening as Iran continues to develop long- By now, the entire context in which the struggle over range missiles that will allow it to launch nuclear weapons the future of the Iran nuclear program is conducted has not only against Israel but also against targets in Europe. changed. At the same time, Europe, China and Russia ignore US at- The JCPOA has put the focus on the questions of tempts to renew international sanctions against Iran. They whether Iran is going to have a big arsenal of nuclear are determined to allow the Iranian regime to continue weapons by 2030 and whether the parties to the JCPOA violating the nuclear deal. are comfortable in the way the acquisition of this arse- It is, therefore, no wonder that as the US Election Day nal is going to come about. After the withdrawal of the approaches, tensions between Washington and Teheran United States from the deal, the question became again, increase, with implications for Israel’s security. as it was until 2015, whether Iran will have enough fissile material for one or two nuclear devices, and how it is THREE WORRISOME STATEMENTS going to overcome the threshold that separates it from Three recent expressions regarding Iran’s nuclear pro- reaching this goal under economic pressure and military gram deserve clarification and context: threats. First, Rafael Grossi, the Director-General of the IAEA, This has been the case since President Trump with- declared in an interview with the Austrian newspaper drew from the JCPOA. Iran and everybody else, including Die Presse that Iran does not presently have the quantity Israel, are waiting anxiously to see what the US elections of enriched uranium needed to produce a nuclear bomb. portend. This is true and untrue at the same time. The truth is that it is about three months away from having this amount if it Brig.-Gen. (res.)Yossi Kuperwasser is Director of the Project on Re- decides to produce it. Grossi admitted that Iran is accumu- gional Middle East Developments at the Jerusalem Centre for Pub- lating uranium enriched to a higher level than what it com- lic Affairs (JCPA). He was formerly Director General of the Israeli mitted to but avoided the question of the time required Ministry of Strategic Affairs and head of the Research Division of for having 1SQ by claiming the IAEA does not deal with IDF Military Intelligence. © JCPA (www.jcpa.org), reprinted by 18 breakout scenarios. permission, all rights reserved.
AIR – November 2020 NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES
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AIR – November 2020 Whether it’s white supremacists, Palestinian terrorists, Social Problems election meddling, or conspiracy theories, Facebook doesn’t exactly have a good track record of pre-emptively dealing with hate speech. NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES Facebook’s new antisemitism policies Twitter is arguably even worse when it comes to bat- tling antisemitism. For example, it was only after I myself asked Twitter’s policy representative in hearings at Israel’s by Emily Schrader Knesset if Holocaust denial was permitted on its platform that it was forced to publicly admit that it permits Holo- acebook, Twitter and Google have all been facing im- caust denial. After much criticism, it has now reversed that Fmense pressure in recent months to update their hate policy. speech policies to adequately deal with antisemitism. At Why does it take a public shaming for these organisa- a time when antisemitism has skyrocketed around the tions to deal with virulent, dangerous hate speech on world, it makes sense that Jew- their platforms? Incredibly, even ish leaders, groups and activists after the uproar over Holocaust are calling on major social media denial, Twitter is still insisting that networks to raise their standards; Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah after all, they are a key factor in Ali Khamenei’s repeated and public shaping public opinion, and people’s calls to genocide of the Jewish state actions, in today’s world. While are perfectly acceptable, yet calls to the new policy updates regarding violence against any other nationality Holocaust denial on Facebook and are removed. These double standards Facebook has moved against Holocaust denial Twitter are a hard-fought step in after refusing to do so for several years are unacceptable. the right direction, they do not go Ironically, the IHRA definition far enough in educating the public about antisemitism. does not call on any group, state, or platform to “ban” Fortunately, there’s a better alternative these platforms antisemitic speech at all, but rather to stigmatise it and can use. call an (antisemitic) spade an (antisemitic) spade. For this Advocates and even members of Israel’s Knesset have reason, the consensus of the global Jewish community is to called on social media companies to incorporate the continue to push for the adoption of IHRA by social media International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) networks, even after the working definition of antisemitism into their procedures positive moves to ban “The consensus of the and decision-making. Big Tech platforms are right to ban Holocaust denial. global Jewish commu- Holocaust denial, but they are still avoiding a critical com- Antisemitism, partic- nity is to continue to ponent of how antisemitism manifests today: anti-Zionism ularly online, manifests push for the adoption – or as many call it, modern antisemitism. today in the two forms: Facebook, in particular, was recently the target of a classic antisemitism, of IHRA by social media large social media campaign, #AdoptIHRA, which called which most social media networks, even after the on Facebook to integrate the IHRA definition into its com- networks are fairly good positive moves to ban munity standards. The campaign was signed by more than at policing; and mod- Holocaust denial” 130 organisations, Jewish and non-Jewish, as well as com- ern antisemitism. The munity leaders and activists. It was met with an immediate latter refers to libellous smears against Jews, “Zionists” response from Facebook that the company would consider or the state of Israel, as well as the demonisation of Jews, all options, and indeed, Facebook subsequently announced the Jewish state, or replacement of the word “Jews” with a complete reversal of its previous policy, which had con- “Zionists,” a popular substitution used by contemporary sidered Holocaust distortion and denial offensive, but also antisemites in an attempt to present their racist views in deemed it “free speech” which should not be flagged or socially acceptable terms. censored. The IHRA definition rightly identifies these forms of Yet instead of adopting IHRA as a starting point for speech as antisemitic. It does not, however, deem criticism identifying all antisemitic content and speech, Facebook of Israeli policy or Israelis as antisemitic. This is a critical has been tiptoeing around the issue and selectively picking distinction because free speech is a (supposed) core value and choosing which pieces of antisemitism it has a problem of social media platforms. The Jewish community isn’t with. This will only complicate the issue in the long term, demanding censorship of those criticising Israel, we are and extend Facebook’s long and rich tradition of waiting demanding education on what antisemitism is today – in all 20 until it’s too late to take action against dangerous content. its forms. We are demanding that Jews be treated equally,
AIR – November 2020 like all other groups on social media, instead of the double to incorporate these issues into their practices and rules. standards with which we have been faced for years. Taking a stand against Holocaust denial is a start, but it The refusal of Facebook and Twitter to adopt the IHRA shouldn’t come at the expense of holding social media definition even after a major push from international Jew- companies accountable for dealing with modern antisemi- ish communal organisations reaffirms a sense which so tism. All social media networks should adopt the IHRA NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES many Jews like myself have felt for decades having worked definition of antisemitism in full today. in this field: Jewish lives don’t matter to these social media networks. More than this, what we define and identify as Emily Schrader is the CEO of Social Lite Creative LLC and an ex- antisemitism, and which we can demonstrate with evi- pert in social media campaigns and activism for social causes. She dence leads to real-world violence against our communi- is also a research fellow at the Tel Aviv Institute where she focuses ties, isn’t important enough to these companies for them on women’s rights and online hate speech.
tions; the #NoDenyingIt effort led by the Claims Conference; FACEBOOK HEEDS HOLOCAUST alarming new polling on Holocaust awareness among young MESSAGE people; regulatory pressure in Europe and America; the recent congressional hearings in Washington DC and a hard-hitting let- Naomi Levin ter from 20 state attorneys general,” Greenblatt said. There was an obvious shift of emphasis by Facebook in Octo- fter significant global campaigns led by the World Jewish ber from unfettered free speech towards a more nuanced ap- ACongress and the American Jewish Committee and joined proach. This was reflected in the tech giant’s decision to remove by dozens of key Jewish community organisations, including content associated with increasingly popular conspiracy theory AIJAC, Facebook has agreed to crack down on Holocaust denial QAnon. on its social media platforms. YouTube, owned by Google, announced it too would tighten In a statement on Oct. 12, Vice President of Content Policy the rules on QAnon-related content, which led to the removal Monika Bickert said Facebook would ban any content that of some popular, but dangerous, videos. However, although “denies or distorts the Holocaust”. She added YouTube stopped short of an outright ban, that, starting later this year, anyone who analysts have noted that the majority of the searches for terms associated with Holocaust most popular QAnon Facebook pages and or Holocaust denial will be directed to “cred- groups became inaccessible quite quickly. ible information off Facebook”. Experts have warned, however, that QAnon Facebook’s move against Holocaust denial is already morphing to evade capture, and followed its step earlier this year to prohibit some users are spilling over into less popular users from using the ubiquitous digital plat- – and less regulated – alternative social media form to spread antisemitic stereotypes. platforms. Content that accuses Jews of running the world or con- QAnon – which originated in the US and is based on the trolling the media is no longer permitted to be published on crazy notion that Democrats and Hollywood elites are paedo- Facebook. This ban came after Jewish organisations consulted philic child traffickers and that Donald Trump is working to with Facebook in order to implore the social media giant to #savethechildren – has spread beyond American shores and share some of the responsibility for growing global antisemitic capitalised on the pandemic to pick up thousands of followers sentiment. around the world. In response to the Holocaust denial ban, Greg Schneider, QAnon has been associated with antisemitism, with re- president of the Claims Conference, whose mission is to provide searchers recently finding dozens of graphically violent death a measure of justice to Holocaust survivors, welcomed the threats from QAnon supporters towards Jewish financier and changes. philanthropist George Soros, many references to Rothschild “You cannot deny the atrocities Holocaust survivors suf- banking conspiracies, and connections being drawn between fered; we applaud these first steps. Holocaust survivors bravely the supposed child trafficking ring and the antisemitic canard of came forward to ensure that their voices were heard. We now blood libel. urge Facebook to take immediate action to implement its new American researcher Gregory Stanton put it most suc- policy,” Schneider said. cinctly: “QAnon’s conspiracy theory is a rebranded version of However, Anti-Defamation League (ADL) CEO Jason the Protocols of the Elders of Zion.” Greenblatt accused Facebook of acting too late. With social media the new printing press, tech giants step- “In reality, we believe Facebook is acting now because of ex- ping up to the plate to remove hateful content seems central to ternal pressure coming from a variety of sources: the Stop Hate restraining the spread of racist extremism – and the violence it for Profit campaign led by ADL and other civil rights organisa- can spawn. 21
AIR – November 2020 Instead of talking to the Americans, the Israelis and THE PALESTINIAN SPLIT Arabs who support the idea of making peace with Israel, WITH THE ARABS Abbas is now talking to Hamas, Turkey and Qatar. In early October, he sent a senior delegation of his ruling Fatah fac-
COVERNAME OF SECTION STORIES tion to Istanbul to discuss with Hamas leaders the possi- by Khaled Abu Toameh bility of holding long overdue elections for the PA presi- dency and Palestinian parliament, the Palestine Legislative hortly after Mahmoud Abbas was elected president Council. Sof the Palestinian Authority in January 2005, Egypt’s The two parties said they have agreed to hold new then President Hosni Mubarak was asked what advice he elections within six months. Previous agreements between would give Palestinian leaders. Fatah and Hamas, however, were never implemented as the Mubarak, in an interview with the Al- Arabiya television network, replied: “There has to be a new thinking about the Palestinian issue. Otherwise, we [Arabs] will continue to say no. We have been saying no for the past 50 years, and that is why we missed many opportunities. We said no to the [UN’s 1947] Partition Plan, and in 1967 we said no to recognising Israel in return for a withdrawal [to the 1949 armistice lines]. At the time, we said that what was taken by force can only be restored by force. “They have rejected everything. Now we A worrying embrace: PA President Mahmoud Abbas with Turkish President Recep Tayyip are in a swamp. The Palestinian people are Erdogan suffering due to the economic crisis. In my view, the Palestinian leadership now needs to give peace a two sides continue to engage in a struggle over money and chance. They need to sit at the negotiating table. This will power. send a message to the people that there is hope for peace.” The latest Fatah-Hamas discussions were held under the Fifteen years later, it is evident that Abbas and the Pal- auspices of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who estinian leadership never took Mubarak’s advice seriously. is also opposed to the peace accords between Israel and On the contrary, the Palestinian leaders are continuing to the two Gulf states. After the meeting, the Fatah delega- act not only against the advice of Mubarak and other Arabs, tion, headed by Jibril Rajoub, flew to Qatar in a bid to win but also against the interests of their own people. its backing for any agreement reached with Hamas. The For the past three years, Abbas has cut off all ties Qataris have long been leading supporters of Hamas, an with the US Administration to protest President Donald offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood organisation. Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Erdogan has also fully embraced Hamas, whose charter Since the beginning of this year, Abbas has rejected Trump’s openly calls for the annihilation of Israel. In September, vision for peace in the Middle East, known as “Peace to Erdogan met with a large delegation from Hamas, includ- Prosperity,” and suspended all ties with Israel, including ing Ismail Haniyeh and Saleh Arouri, both of whom have security coordination. been designated by the US State Department as Specially What Abbas has done is to reject peace with Israel and Designated Global Terrorists because of their involvement prosperity for Palestinians to appease Hamas, Turkey and in terrorist attacks against citizens of Israel and the US. Qatar. In mid-October, Abbas talked on the telephone with Abbas and the Palestinian leadership have, in the past Erdogan and Haniyeh about the prospects of achieving few weeks, strongly come out against the peace deals Palestinian “national unity” and foiling US and Israeli “con- signed between Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) spiracies” against the Palestinians. and Bahrain. This position has placed the Palestinians on a Mubarak advised Abbas and the Palestinian leadership collision course with several Arab countries, especially the to give peace a chance, to stop saying no to all peace plans Gulf states. Many Arabs are reportedly furious with the and initiatives and to return to the negotiating table with Palestinian leadership for accusing the UAE and Bahrain of Israel. By associating himself with Erdogan and Hamas, “betraying the Palestinian issue, the Al-Aqsa Mosque and however, Abbas is demonstrating that he would rather give 22 Jerusalem.” Muslim extremists a chance, evidently to advance their
AIR – November 2020 anti-Israel and anti-Western goals and ambitions. is in front of you; it is the corrupt Palestinian Author- Pointedly, a report in a Palestinian media outlet belong- ity. Open the files of the corrupt Palestinian Authority. ing to Abbas’ arch-rival, Mohammed Dahlan, alleged that Check where did the sons of the leaders of the Palestinian the Fatah delegation in Istanbul in early October met with Authority study? What kind of life are they living? How officials from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps did they get their education? They live in peace, stability, COVER STORIES NAME OF SECTION (IRGC), as well as Turkish and Qatari intelligence officers. prosperity and luxury. Take a look at your own children. According to the report, sources in Abbas’ office Your children who are instilled with hatred. What has the revealed that, during his call with Erdogan, the Palestin- Palestinian Authority given you? We are no longer the ian leader bad-mouthed Egyptian President Abdel Fattah generation of revolution and rage; we are a generation Al-Sisi and Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz. The report that aspires to achieve peace and love. We want to live and added that “analysts specializing in the Palestinian issue raise our children in peace and security. We tried wars, commented that Qatar and Turkey will use Abbas to harm now we want to try peace.” the interests of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Bahrain, Abdullah Al-Hakeem, a Saudi political analyst and for- Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Sudan, Mauritania, Morocco and mer director of the Middle East Centre for Strategic and Tunisia.” Legal Studies, concurred: The report also alleged that Qatar recently gave Abbas “The real enemy of the Palestinians is the corrupt and some of his aides “more than $50 million for their per- Palestinian Authority. When I visited Israel, I attended an sonal bank accounts inside banks in Israel and the Palestin- event for a member of the Palestinian Authority, and I saw ian Authority areas.” people queuing up to enter to eat. How much I suffered watching this scene. One of the members of the Palestin- ome Arabs are now trying to advise the Palestinian ian Authority asked me why I left the event. I answered Sleadership in the same way that, already 15 years ago, him that we must make peace with Israel to create a bet- Mubarak did. The voices of these Arabs, nonetheless, do ter reality for the Palestinians. He got angry with me and not seem to be making any more of an impression on stopped talking to me.” Abbas or anyone in the top echelon of the Palestinian Al-Hakeem was apparently referring to poor people leadership than Mubarak’s did. “Palestinian leaders continue to who had come to the event to beg Palestinian leaders continue to say no to the constructive voices for food. say no to the constructive voices in Dr. Khaled Al-Qasimi wrote in the Arab world, while saying yes to in the Arab world, while saying a Yemeni website that the uproar terrorist-promoting Turkey, Qatar yes to terrorist-promoting Turkey, Abbas and the PLO caused over and Hamas. That stance may explain Qatar and Hamas” the UAE normalisation accord with why so many Arabs are frustrated Israel is unacceptable. Palestinian with the Palestinian leadership. leaders, Al-Qasimi said, “do not want to solve the Pales- “The Palestinian leadership has lost its symbolism, even tinian issue because resolving the issue means losing their among the Palestinians,” remarked Abdullah Al-Ghathami, personal benefits.” a respected professor of criticism and theory at King Saud “There is no doubt that the wealth that the Palestinian University. leaders have accumulated during more than half a century “The Palestinian leadership has lost its credibility in the is more important [to them] than the Palestinian people eyes of the new Arab generation, which is a generation and their issue. Wars that have brought us nothing but of technology. Once, for us the homeland was the whole destruction...” Arab world. We were all an army of freedom fighters for Noura Al-Moteari, an Emirati author and political re- the Palestinians. We used to accept their mistakes, even their insults because the Palestinian issue was Number 1 for us. Today the new generation thinks differently. The Palestinian leadership is irrelevant. Palestinians needs [sic] a young leadership that would be able to address the young Arab generation.” Echoing the same sense of disillusionment with the Palestinian leadership in the Arab word, a Syrian journalist based in the UAE, who calls herself Shukran, posted the following advice to the Palestinians: “This is a message directed to the Palestinians who are focusing their efforts on offending the UAE. I just want to say a few words, my dear Palestinians: Your real enemy 23
AIR – November 2020 searcher, advised the Palestinians: Arab Emirates (UAE) is the most advanced nation in the “The only solution available to the Palestinian people is Arab world. Abu Dhabi successfully started up its Barakah to move immediately to remove the dilapidated Palestin- Nuclear Plant in August 2020. The reactor is closely moni- ian leaders. Palestinians need to nominate a transitional tored by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency
COVERNAME OF SECTION STORIES council, as in Sudan, and to work hard to find a Palestin- (IAEA) and is consistent with the US-UAE 123 Agree- ian leadership that can take advantage of peace processes.” ment, which denies the UAE the key capabilities needed As in the past, the Palestinian leadership are continuing to develop an atomic weapon: uranium enrichment and to ignore the advice of their Arab brothers to try peace and plutonium processing. replace their corrupt and incompetent leaders. This refusal With the full peace and normalisation between Israel seems to be the main reason many Arabs today feel that and the UAE, the Barakah reactor is not considered a the Palestinian issue is no longer central to all Arabs and proliferation threat, although there are normal security Muslims. concerns, such as the potential theft of nuclear technology or materials by terrorists or other rogue actors. Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning Palestinian Affairs jour- The push towards atomic energy in other countries in nalist based in Jerusalem, is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the the region remains at earlier stages, and existing nuclear Gatestone Institute. Reprinted from the Gatestone Institute (www. infrastructure appears limited and fully monitored. Jordan gatestoneinstitute.org). © Khaled Abu Toameh, reprinted by per- has moved forward with its plan to build a nuclear power mission, all rights reserved. plant by 2030, signing an agreement with US company X-energy in November 2019. Egypt is expected to issue permits to construct the Dabaa Nuclear Power Station in the second half of 2021. Politically, as long as the govern- PROLIFERATION ments of both these countries remain aligned with the REVELATIONS IN THE West, their nuclear efforts pose little danger of creating a risk to international stability. MIDDLE EAST In September 2020, Iraqi PM Mustafa Al-Kadhimi formed a committee to initiate steps towards building a nuclear research reactor. This appears potentially prob- by Ran Porat lematic given the volatile political situation in Iraq and the fluctuating, but substantial, influence in Baghdad from wo and a half years ago, I wrote an analysis (“Com- neighbouring Iran, leader of the region’s radical camp, and Ting soon – a Nuclear Middle East”, AIR March 2018) its armed loyal militias within Iraq. Hence, although Iraq’s of the implications for Israel of the advancing nuclear nuclear program is in the earliest stages, it is likely that it is capabilities of various Middle Eastern countries. Recent being observed closely by the relevant parties. major developments on this front – involving vari- ous nations, but especially new revelations about Saudi TURKEY Arabia – require an update and a renewed look at Israel’s In September 2019, Turkish President Recep Tayyip security dilemmas in dealing with the regional prolifera- Erdogan warned that he does not accept the prohibition on tion threat. Turkey possessing nuclear arms while other countries are allowed to do so. This stands in direct contrast with Tur- UAE, JORDAN, EGYPT AND IRAQ key’s ratification of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in With regards to nuclear power reactors, the United 1980. Erdogan specifically mentioned Israel, considered an unofficial member of the club of atomic nations: “They scare [other nations] by possessing these. No one can touch With Compliments them,” said Erdogan of Israel. So far there is little indication that Turkey is matching Erdogan’s words with actions. Turkey was once a transit station in the illicit nuclear proliferation network of Paki- stani scientist, Abd Al-Qadir Khan. Today, however, it does Brayelle P/L. not seem to have the ability to divert its monitored civilian nuclear infrastructure – a research reactor, TR-2, and three power plants being built with assistance from Russia, Japan and the US respectively – to military aims. 24 As a NATO member, Turkey hosts around 50 American
AIR – November 2020 ture in 2004 may have been an exception, as Israel report- edly failed to detect that program in advance. From an Israeli perspective, the dilemmas created by the Begin Doctrine have intensified recently. Ironically,
this has happened because of the positive change in rela- NAME OF SECTION tionships between Jerusalem and several countries in the region. Instead of a zero-sum game – Arab countries are either friendly or belligerent – Israel now faces a Middle East which is a web of alliances on a continuum ranging from overtly friendly, to under-the-table friendly, to non- friendly yet potential future allies, to enemies, and every- thing in between. This seismic shift is forcing Israeli policy makers to The UAE’s new Barakah nuclear power plant, the first to come online in the Arab world rethink their policy towards advanced nuclear capabilities in Arab hands. And nowhere is this issue more acute than nuclear warheads at the Incirlik Air Base. Erdogan’s threat in the case of Saudi Arabia. may have been directed at the US following reports that Washington has been considering moving these weapons ISRAEL’S SAUDI DILEMMA out of the country. Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler Crown Prince Moham- mad Bin Salman famously threatened in March 2018 that THE NPT VS. THE “BEGIN DOCTRINE” “without a doubt, if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we The basis for Erdogan’s complaint is the centrally im- will follow suit as soon as possible.” portant 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Technically, Saudi Arabia is years away from possessing Weapons (NPT). According to the NPT, countries with an ability to produce its own bomb. The kingdom’s current nuclear weapons at the time (the US, UK, Soviet Union/ nuclear infrastructure is “embryonic”, focused on civilian Russia, France and China) remained the only ones allowed energy (plans are in place to build 16 reactors by 2040), such an arsenal in exchange for a commitment to supply and is lacking in key elements to produce a bomb. Instead, Riyadh has put its trust nuclear technology for peaceful “Several Middle Eastern states have use to all other nations. Since then, in its strong alliance with the US however, additional countries have been caught with their hands deep and a Pakistani “nuclear umbrella”. sought – some successfully – to in the nuclear cookie jar in violation The Saudis have invested consid- acquire atomic bombs outside the of the NPT – including Iraq under erable sums in Pakistan’s atomic NPT framework, including In- Saddam Hussein, Syria, Libya under weapons program over the years, allegedly with the expectation that dia, Pakistan and, allegedly, Israel Muammar Ghaddafi and Iran” (though some reports say Israel’s Islamabad would use its nuclear nuclear capabilities predate the assets to protect Saudi Arabia in a NPT’s signing). Meanwhile, some signatory states have time of need. used their NPT-sponsored nuclear infrastructure to manu- In August, the media exposed an undeclared Saudi facture nuclear weapons despite its strictures – North nuclear site southwest of Riyadh, built with Chinese as- Korea being the obvious case. sistance. This facility, located at the King Abdulaziz City Several Middle Eastern states have been caught with for Science and Technology (KACST), can process uranium their hands deep in the nuclear cookie jar in violation of ore into “yellowcake” – uranium concentrate powder used the NPT – including Iraq under Saddam Hussein, Syria, in the process of uranium enrichment. Libya under Muammar Ghaddafi and Iran. To tackle this Riyadh’s failure to disclose this facility to the IAEA is threat, Israel’s Prime Minister Menachem Begin is credited a worrying breach of its NPT obligations, with Beijing with devising the “Begin Doctrine”, which says that Israel as an accomplice to this problematic behaviour. China’s has a right and an obligation to make sure its enemies can- role is especially concerning given its close relations with not achieve nuclear weapons capabilities. Saudi Arabia’s arch-nemesis, Iran. China has been a major Since then, Israel has acted directly against emerging customer for Iranian oil,circumventing US sanctions, pro- nuclear threats, bombing reactors in Iraq (1981) and Syria tecting Iran and the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) at the UN (2007). Jerusalem is also deeply involved with the US and Security Council, and more. others in the multifaceted effort against the ambitious Furthermore, Saudi atomic activities are currently Iranian nuclear weapons project that has endured for two not supervised under the maximum safeguard measures. decades now. The dismantling of Libya’s atomic bomb ven- Riyadh refuses to sign either the aforementioned US 123 25
AIR – November 2020 agreement or the IAEA’s “Additional Protocol” for ex- unless you also fight anti-Zionism.” Hirsh expressed his tended monitoring agreement. It is also reportedly declin- concern about the mainstreaming in the left of antisemi- ing to promise it would not pursue nuclear fuel production tism and undemocratic values in general. abilities.
NAME OF SECTION BIBLIO FILE Jerusalem is facing a dilemma deciding how to respond Jonathan Spyer – July 7 to Saudi atomic aspirations. Israel does not want to see a Middle East analyst Spyer’s topic was “The Middle East: nuclear arms race triggered in the Middle East if a nuclear Meltdowns and Mayhem.” He said there is a war currently weapon is introduced to the region by Saudi Arabia (or being fought over the ruins of a chaotic Middle East be- anyone else). At the same time, Riyadh may soon go public tween four forces – Iran and its allies, Turkey and its allies, with its informal secret cooperation with Israel, cemented the Salafists/Jihadists such as ISIS, and a loose grouping in the shadow of the Iranian menace. And in the Middle of status quo states including Israel and moderate Sunni East there are always worries about future internal politi- states. Potential flashpoints include Libya, where Egypt and cal stability. Egypt, for example, flipped from foe, under its allies are concerned at Turkey’s interference, and Syria. Gamal Abd Al-Nasser, to friend, under Anwar Sadat and The Iranian bloc is the most cohesive, but is constrained Hosni Mubarak, then turned hostile again under the Mus- by its economic weakness, he explained, including in Syria lim Brotherhood’s Mohammad Morsi, but again became an and Lebanon, while Turkey’s “very very aggressive and ally under current President Abd Al-Fatah Al-Sissi. ambitious…foreign policy” requires more attention and Thus, instead of choosing to fully pursue the “Begin concern than it receives. Doctrine” in this case, Israel has been following in the foot- steps of another Israeli PM, Yitzhak Shamir. Just like Shamir Danielle Pletka – July 14 quietly communicated to the US a willingness to exercise Senior Fellow in Foreign and Defence Policy Studies at restraint in exchange for American protection after Israel the American Enterprise Institute Danielle Pletka discussed was attacked by Iraq in the First Gulf War (1991), so too Is- “Trump vs Biden: The Future of US Foreign Policy.” She rael seems prepared to put its trust in Washington, privately noted that the Trump Administration had strongly supported relaying its concerns about Saudi Arabia’s nuclear ambitions. Israel and had also managed, against expectations, to not Such a policy solves, for now, its Saudi dilemma, but it may only tear up the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), but to resurface in the not-so-distant future. reinstitute a sanctions regime “that has bitten on the Iranians like nothing they’ve ever seen in their 40 plus year reign.” Dr. Ran Porat is a research associate at the Australian Centre for She warned that Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s policies Jewish Civilisation at Monash University, a research fellow at the might take a worrying direction, given the hostility to Israel International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at the Interdisci- and extreme foreign policy views in part of his party. plinary Centre in Herzliya and a research associate at the Future Directions International Research Institute, Western Australia. Simon Henderson – July 21 Washington Institute Gulf and energy policy expert Henderson, whose topic was “Power Struggles: Energy Wars in the Middle East”, explained there are two areas WORLD OF WEBINARS of potential conflict over energy: the Persian Gulf and the eastern Mediterranean. There is the potential for a vicious succession battle in Saudi Arabia when King Salman dies, by Jamie Hyams he warned. The trouble in the eastern Mediterranean is caused by Turkey, which is disputing the offshore gas and ince the last wrap of AIJAC’s webinars, in the July oil exploration zones of other countries, and has claimed Sedition of the AIR, there have been 16 more AIJAC Live Cyprus’ zone for itself. Online sessions, each of them informative and fascinating. Professor Gerald Steinberg – July 27 Joan Ryan and David Hirsh – June 20 Professor Steinberg is the founder and President of Former British Labour MP Ryan, who grew up with no NGO Monitor. In his webinar, “The Campaign to Delegiti- Jewish links, and academic Hirsh, a former party member, mise Israel within International Institutions,” he explained both left due to the party’s antisemitism and spoke on “An- there was no hope that the institutionally anti-Israel tisemitism in the British Left”. Ryan explained, “I doubt United Nations Human Rights Council would reform. that the Labour Party will ever be able to be united and get Two thirds of its members are always totalitarian states over this problem until it tackles this obsessional obsessive and the Organisation of Islamic Co-operation has a ma- hatred that seems to be part of the Labour Party – hatred jority in three of the five regions which elect members. 26 for Israel.” She added that “You can’t fight antisemitism High Commissioner Michele Bachelet and the secretariat
AIR – November 2020 gence and counterterrorism official, and now Director of the Washington Institute’s program on counterterrorism and intelligence, was adamant the whole of Hezbollah must be banned. He described trying to fight Hezbollah
when only part of the group is designated a terror organ- NAME OF SECTION BIBLIO FILE isation as “trying to play cricket without a bat.” He set out the startling breadth of Hezbollah’s criminal and terror activities worldwide, which can be examined with the user-friendly map and database he has compiled over a few years, available on the Washington Institute website.
AIJAC webinar guests (left to right, top to bottom): Mark Regev, Herb Khaled Abu Toameh – August 24 Keinon, Michael Doran, Jonathan Spyer, Amb. Abdulla Al Sabousi, David Rosen, Danielle Pletka, Matthew Levitt, Khaled Abu Toameh In his webinar, Jerusalem Post Palestinian Affairs corre- spondent Khaled Abu Toameh addressed the question, “The are very sympathetic to its views, and Michael Lynk, its Israel-UAE Peace: What do the Palestinians Want?” He Special Rapporteur for the West Bank and Gaza, has a answered that “The impression among Palestinians is that long history of anti-Zionism, and has said many things that both the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Hamas would contravene the International Holocaust Remem- in Gaza are actually interested in maintaining the status brance Alliance’s definition of antisemitism. Steinberg also quo. The Palestinian Authority’s main goal is to remain revealed that many NGOs are closely connected to Pales- in power… and Hamas also wants to remain in power in tinian terror groups, while others use anti-Israel activists Gaza. That’s actually the only strategy they have.” He noted to compile their supposedly objective reports on Israel and that they were caught by surprise and felt betrayed, and the Palestinians. worried “about the indifference in the Arab world towards the agreement.” Michael Doran – August 6 Doran, a former senior director in the US National Se- Clifford May – August 28 curity Council and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence May, the veteran journalist who founded Washington- in the George W. Bush Administration, spoke on “China and the Middle East: Ongoing challenges for the next US Administration.” He argued that China is in a tacit alliance with Russia and Iran in the Middle East, and is trying to supplant the US with a Sino-centric international order. It WITH COMPLIMENTS FROM won’t yet challenge the US directly, so it uses Russia and Iran as stalking horses, supporting them economically, militarily and diplomatically, and swoops in when terror activities make a US presence difficult.
Yuval Rotem – August 16 Rotem is the recently retired Director-General of Is- rael’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a former Ambassador to Australia. Speaking on “Israel’s Foreign Policy – An In- sider’s Perspective”, he explained that the main dangers in the region are now seen as Iran and Turkey, and some Arab states have been relaxing their previous hostility towards Israel, mostly under the table. He described the agreement with the UAE as the natural evolution of this process, but said we must remember it’s a historic event. It removed the Palestinian veto on Israeli/Arab relations and dis- proved claims that moving of the US embassy to Jerusalem TEL: (03) 9866 2200 would undermine Israel’s position in the Middle East. LEVEL 3, 480 ST KILDA ROAD, Dr Matthew Levitt – August 19 MELBOURNE, VIC 3004 In his webinar “Mapping Hezbollah’s Worldwide Activi- ties”, Dr Levitt, a former US government senior intelli- 27
AIR – November 2020 based think tank, the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies (FDD), spoke on “US Presidential Elections Herb Keinon – September 29 and the Middle East”. He said the Israel policies of a Biden Speaking about “20 years on from the Second Inti- administration would depend on whom he appointed fada,” Jerusalem Post senior contributing editor and analyst
BIBLIO FILE NAME OF SECTION to important posts, and may or may not reflect the left Herb Keinon described the Intifada as a watershed event of the party, but Biden’s support for Obama’s policies is in Israeli history that shaped a generation, and will shape known. He listed Trump Administration pro-Israel policies, the next generation. He explained, “To understand Israel including moving the embassy to Jerusalem, recognising today, to understand so much of what the country does, to Israeli sovereignty in the Golan understand its political turn to the “In an historic event, His Excellency Heights, the proposed peace plan right, why it has voted time and with the Palestinians, facilitating Abdulla Al Subousi, Ambassador time and time again for Benjamin normalisation with Arab states Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Netanyahu, why it has no confi- and withdrawing from the JCPOA the United Arab Emirates to Australia, dence right now in the Palestin- nuclear deal with Iran and impos- spoke on ‘Bridging the Gulf’” ians…is to understand the strain ing subsequent sanctions. and the pressure that everyone in this country encountered or Rabbi David Rosen – September 8 laboured under during that period of the Intifada...” Rabbi Rosen is the American Jewish Committee’s Direc- tor of International Interreligious Affairs, and addressed His Excellency Abdulla Al Subousi – October 7 “Jewish-Muslim Relations and Arab-Israeli Peace”. He noted In an historic event, His Excellency Abdulla Al Subousi, that horror over the September 11 attacks and the threat Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the from Al-Qaeda had motivated a new era of interfaith engage- United Arab Emirates to Australia, spoke on “Bridging the ment in the Arab world. While the softening of attitudes to Gulf”. He stated, “There is no doubt that the peace deal Israel which led to the normalisation deal was initially due to [between the UAE and Israel] will fundamentally change shared strategic threats, most notably from Iran, “Interfaith both the UAE and Israel relations, as well as the entire relations provides... the soft avenue in which you can engage Middle East for the better, I’m sure. It brings a new day without necessarily having to pay any price.” He described where old and outdated antagonisms are swept aside in how the UAE was particularly active in interfaith activity. favour of peace and friendship. The deal will lead to a new era of educational, cultural and personal ties, such as these Behnam Ben Taleblu – September 15 ones, that will deeply enrich our peoples and lives.” He FDD Iran expert Taleblu urged stronger action against explained that the UAE was built on religious tolerance, Iran both to attempt to have Australian-British academic and expressed concern about the activities of Turkey and Kylie Moore-Gilbert freed from Iranian jail and in re- Iran in the region. sponse to the regime’s execution of champion wrestler Navid Afkari. On his topic, “The Iranian Nuclear Crisis and Mark Regev – October 13 the US Election”, he recommended that the US contin- Australian-born Regev, the Israeli PM’s international ues the Trump maximum pressure campaign against Iran, media spokesperson, spoke on the topic, “A New Era for to pressure it to return to negotiations about its nuclear Israeli Foreign Policy”. Noting that until now, Israel’s main weapons and rogue state activities. He argued that “the international relationships were with Western countries, clawing back of this [JCPOA] accord” would not help in- while its own region has been hostile, he said, “for Israel ternational security, just the Iranian regime. now to be expanding our relations so energetically with Arab countries, with Muslim countries, is very, very excit- Michal Cotler-Wunsh – September 24 ing. It’s the dawn of a new era.” He noted that, with the Israeli Knesset member Cotler-Wunsh heads the Knes- “economic clout” of the Gulf States, “this is a sort of peace set’s Committee on Israeli-Diaspora relations. Speaking on agreement that everyone in Israel can feel because it can “Israel, World Jewry and the Fight Against Antisemitism” enhance national prosperity.” He added that the difficult she urged the use of an algorithm based upon accepted position Palestinians are now in could make peace more standards – the International Holocaust Remembrance likely, as it may lead them to re-examine their positions. Alliance’s (IHRA) definition – to combat antisemitism in social media posts. She stressed that efforts to remove To find out what else each of our speakers said, see the references to Israel from the IHRA’s working definition of recordings, video excerpts and reports of the webinars on antisemitism would render it inadequate “because the new the AIJAC website, YouTube channel and Facebook page. antisemitism that we see on and offline actually uses that The webinar program is ongoing, so look out for upcom- 28 ability to... redub the Jew as the ‘Zionist’.” ing events.
AIR – November 2020 condominium with Russia – and to a lesser extent Iran – and the reduc- tion of US and Western presence and ESSAY influence. While Turkey and Russia
are strategic competitors, both view NAME OF SECTION ESSAY the US as the main hindrance to their interests and wish to bilaterally horse- trade spheres of influence in their Ankara Away multiple conflicts. This trend certainly presents overlapping but generally distinct Assessing the Turkish challenge to Israel challenges to Israel’s interests, which include a US-backed regional order. Although Turkey seeks to assert itself by Oved Lobel in multiple areas, Israel should be able to compartmentalise these challenges ranian power is fragile, but and deal with them individually while “Ithe real threat is from Turkey,” maintaining some sort of relationship, Mossad chief Yossi Cohen reportedly however dysfunctional, with Turkey. told the spy chiefs of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE a couple of TURKEY, HAMAS AND THE years ago. PALESTINIANS Israel’s military intelligence alleg- Erdogan’s hostility towards Israel edly classified Turkey as a “challenge” is no surprise. His AKP party is the to Israeli interests for the first time political offspring of Turkey’s older in 2020, tying this challenge di- Given his background, the hostility of Turkish Islamist Welfare Party, whose political rectly to the Turkish President Recep President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Israel is platform pinned all of Turkey’s prob- Tayyip Erdogan and his support for no surprise lems on “world imperialism and Zion- political Islamists like the Muslim sole purpose of threatening Israel; ism, as well as Israel and a handful of Brotherhood. and it retains, despite the rhetoric champagne-drinking collaborators in Israel’s Defence Minister Benny and multiple strategic differences, a the holding companies that feed it.” Gantz, in a recent Zoom briefing healthy trade relationship with Israel, There is little doubt Erdogan was organised by the Arab Council for although official diplomatic ties have looking for an excuse to destroy Tur- Regional Integration following the been on ice since 2018. Furthermore, key’s previous strategic relationship Israeli normalisation with the UAE despite the vitriol, Turkey’s official with Israel, and he found it in Opera- and Bahrain, accused Turkey of pro- position is still to support a two-state tion Cast Lead, Israel’s first major moting instability, declaring that “we resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian offensive against Hamas rocket attacks must take all the options that we have conflict. and attack tunnels in Gaza in 2008- in our hands and try to influence [Tur- The challenge of Turkey is that of 9. Erdogan used the opportunity to key] through international pressure to an aggressive rising power disrupting block Israeli participation in NATO make sure that they are pulling their the status quo in its perceived favour. exercise “Anatolian Eagle,” leading to hands [away] from direct terrorism.” As its military power has grown, par- its cancellation. He then organised While Erdogan is extremely hos- ticularly its mastery of drone warfare the infamous Gaza Freedom Flotilla tile to Israel – though perhaps not as since 2018, so too have its aggres- in 2010, a direct provocation meant hostile as Turkey’s secular opposition, sive attempts to rewrite the regional to resonate politically at home and which accuses Erdogan of being too order and circumvent international justify his attempts to downgrade the soft and all talk – Turkey is not cur- law, which it views as constraining its relationship. rently a comparable threat to Iran. interests and ambitions, using hard Erdogan’s sympathy with and sup- Turkey does not have a revolution- power. port for Hamas is also no surprise, as ary ideology centred on the destruc- All of this is taking place in a stra- his own roots, like Hamas’, are very tion of Israel; it does not stockpile tegic vacuum as the US increasingly much in the Muslim Brotherhood explosives throughout the world disengages from the region. movement. He has always supported or proliferate sophisticated weap- Chief among Turkey’s goals in this the group, and embraced Hamas’ onry and missiles to proxies for the regard is the pursuit of a regional electoral victory in 2006. This sup- 29
AIR – November 2020 port escalated substantially as part of Turkey had given passports to about a relations with Iran, Turkey’s “Muslim the 2010 provocation, with Turkey dozen senior Hamas operatives based Brother” and paragon of “resistance” beginning to host senior Hamas lead- in Istanbul. Meanwhile, Turkey has to the West. Erbakan flew to Iran to ers around 2010-2011 and even alleg- joined Russia in its attempts to unify sign a US$23 billion gas deal in direct
NAME OF SECTION ESSAY edly funding their terrorist operations the major Palestinian groups, Fatah defiance of US efforts. directly. In 2018, Israel’s Shin Bet and Hamas, in the wake of Israel’s Erdogan has picked up where security agency revealed that Hamas’ normalisation with Bahrain and the Erbakan left off, massively expand- military activities were being funded UAE. ing trade with Iran after the rise to and run out of an office in Istanbul Turkey’s soft power push in Je- power of his AKP party in 2002 and overseen by Hamas’ military com- rusalem is also of concern to Israel, attempting another gas deal in 2007. mander of terrorist activities in the especially efforts by the Turkish Co- Erdogan viewed his role as protecting West Bank, Saleh al-Arouri. operation and Coordination Agency Iran’s nuclear program from sanc- As part of the investigation, the (TIKA). This agency reportedly bank- tions, and he has consistently tried Shin Bet fingered Zaher Jabarin as rolls a substantial portion of civil so- to deepen economic ties with Tehe- the terrorist recruiter and arrested ciety activity in east Jerusalem, gives ran. Moreover, once sanctions were Daram Jabarin as a financier. In 2019, cash and food handouts to Palestinians imposed, the Turkish government the US sanctioned Turkey-based Zaher in the city and allegedly collaborates allegedly oversaw the “gas-for-gold” Jabarin, the head of Hamas’ Finance with the controversial Turkish Islamist scheme and other activities to help Office, for using several companies charity IHH. Iran circumvent US pressure. About in Turkey to raise funds for Hamas Another Turkish aid organisation, radical Iranian President Mahmoud activities. The US asserts that Jabarin the International Kanadil Institute for Ahmadinejad, Erdogan said “There and his companies in Turkey are also Humanitarian Aid and Development, is no doubt he is our friend,” and he Hamas’ primary points of contact for was banned in Israel in late 2016 for went out of his way to amplify Iranian Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard allegedly funding Hamas and Muslim propaganda regarding its nuclear Corps (IRGC), the group’s primary Brotherhood-linked projects in Jeru- program. backer. salem. There are reports that Israel’s A recent report alleges that the More concerning is the Shin Bet’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs formulated director of Turkey’s English-language allegation that Turkey provides direct a specific program in 2019 to counter State Broadcaster TRT World, Fatih military assistance to Hamas via Turkish influence in Jerusalem. Er, is being investigated by Turkey’s SADAT, an ostensibly private Turkish Turkey’s expansive soft power judiciary for his role in the IRGC’s security company that seeks “De- role in east Jerusalem is all the more network in Turkey, as was the current fensive Collaboration and Defensive concerning given Erdogan’s statement Minister of Industry and Technology Industrial Cooperation among Islamic to party colleagues on Oct. 1 that Mustafa Varank and Erdogan advisor Countries to help the Islamic World.” “Jerusalem is our city.” Sefer Turan. Further revelations about the Erdogan has not only financially group’s Turkey operations came from TURKEY, IRAN AND facilitated Iranian expansion, but has Suheib Yousef, a son of Hamas co- HEZBOLLAH also allowed the IRGC and its proxies founder Sheikh Hassan Yousef, who Long before the rise of the politi- free rein when it comes to Israel. Er- left the group. Yousef alleges that cal Islamists, Turkey had an ambivalent dogan and his intelligence chief Hakan Hamas also runs signals intelligence relationship with the revolutionary Fidan allegedly began passing on intel- stations in Turkey using “advanced theocracy in Iran, refusing to support ligence from the US and Israel to Iran equipment and computer programs” US sanctions since 1979. Prioritis- and even reportedly blew the cover of to spy on Israel, the Palestinian ing relations with the Muslim Middle an Israeli spy network inside Iran. Authority and Arab States, and then East has been an enduring idea in He has also allegedly helped sells that information to the IRGC in Turkey since the 1970s, an idea that Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, exchange for financial aid. Erdogan’s mentor Necmettin Er- transport weapons and missiles into During a May 2019 flareup in bakan, leader of the Islamic Welfare Lebanon. According to reports, this Gaza, Israel bombed a building it Party, attempted to implement during began during the 2006 war between claimed was being used as a com- his abortive year as Prime Minister. Hezbollah and Israel and continued at mand centre by Hamas and Pales- Erbakan proclaimed that Turkey “will least through 2009 despite multiple tinian Islamic Jihad, a building that set up an Islamic United Nations, an Israeli diplomatic protests. After a not coincidentally housed Turkey’s Islamic NATO and an Islamic version meeting with Hezbollah’s Secretary- state-run news agency Anadolu. In of the European Union.” The lynchpin General Hassan Nasrallah in 2010, 30 August this year, Israel revealed that of this plan was establishing closer Erdogan reportedly defended Hezbol-
AIR – November 2020 lah over accusations that it had killed across the region, especially after the in Turkey. Like Qatar, Turkey has be- former Lebanese Prime Minister Brotherhood gained control of Egypt come a base for Muslim Brotherhood- Rafiq Hariri and dozens of others in under President Mohamed Morsi in aligned broadcasts into countries like 2005, proclaiming “Hezbollah says 2012-13. On the other side, the UAE Egypt. it’s the spirit of resistance in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia reacted with horror While none of this is directly ESSAYNAME OF SECTION and even uses the expression ‘Hariri’s at US disengagement, encouragement threatening to Israel, the stability of shahid.’ [martyr] No one can suspect of the Brotherhood and the collapse its Arab allies is obviously of tremen- it of being involved in this.” In fact, of autocratic allies and client states dous concern. Moreover, the 2017 the UN-backed Special Tribunal for like Egypt. Thus began a Cold War Arab blockade of Qatar, directly Lebanon legally implicated Hezbollah across the Middle East and Africa, as a related to the latter’s support for the in Hariri’s murder in August 2020. conservative alliance led by the UAE Muslim Brotherhood, undermined Turkey does have “In the Middle East, sought to reimpose the ostensible united front against many strategic differ- or prop up military Iran and exacerbated the already tense Turkey has become ences with Iran, most dictatorships in Libya, relations of most Arab states with notably its attempts the primary bastion Sudan, Egypt, Yemen Turkey. to topple the Syrian and safe haven for and elsewhere and This Cold War also directly im- regime of Bashar al- the Muslim Broth- re-establish the status pacts Israel’s attempts to win official Assad, the fulcrum of erhood, which has quo ante, while Turkey diplomatic recognition from other Iran’s “axis of resis- and Qatar promoted Muslim states aside from the UAE and tance” against Israel. been thoroughly Islamist groups, often Bahrain – which may only be possible Turkey also supported crushed as a political under the guise of at if UAE-aligned factions in places like the Saudi-led interven- force in Egypt and least superficial politi- Libya and Sudan are victorious over tion in Yemen against across the region” cal pluralism. their Turkish-backed political and Iran’s local proxy Ansar Like his mentor military opponents. Allah, also known as the Houthis, of- Erbakan, Erdogan is very intent on fering logistical support and declaring setting up an Islamic order with Tur- TURKEY, LIBYA that “Iran and the terrorist groups key as a key leader. Certain initiatives, AND THE EASTERN must withdraw.” such as the Islamist Kuala Lumpur MEDITERRANEAN However, as it does with Russia, Summit in Malaysia in 2019, are There are several interconnected Turkey would much prefer to divide intended to supplant the Saudi-led issues, each aggravating the other, that the region with Iran and manage the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation make up the conflict in the eastern conflicts bilaterally and occasionally (OIC), and Turkey has even seem- Mediterranean between Turkey on trilaterally with Russian participation. ingly succeeded in poaching Paki- the one hand and almost every other Erdogan and the AKP have an ideo- stan, an erstwhile Saudi client state, country there on the other. logical sympathy for a fellow Muslim from Saudi Arabia by involving itself Foremost among these is the issue state under pressure from the US. rhetorically in the Kashmir conflict of the Exclusive Economic Zones At the 6th Turkey-Iran High-Level and defending Pakistan from blacklist- Cooperation Council meeting in Sep- ing by the Financial Action Task Force tember, co-chaired by Erdogan and (FATF) for terrorism funding. With Compliments Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, the In the Middle East, Turkey has two leaders agreed to continue devel- become the primary bastion and safe Geoff Morris & Family oping the economic relationship and haven for the Muslim Brotherhood, to cooperate in the fight against the which has been thoroughly crushed as Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). a political force in Egypt and across and the region. Jordan, aligned with the TURKEY AND POLITICAL UAE camp, dissolved the local Broth- ISLAM erhood branch in July, while the UAE, Ardkeen P/L. The events of the so-called Arab like Saudi Arabia, declared it a terror- Spring in 2011 produced two dia- ist organisation in 2014. metrically opposed regional blocs. In Egypt, the Muslim Brother- On the one hand, Turkey and Qatar hood has allegedly spawned terrorist 162 Victoria Ave threw their weight behind the Mus- offshoots, like the Hasm movement, Dalkeith WA 6009 lim Brotherhood, which for a brief which Egypt claims is controlled by moment seemed politically ascendant senior Muslim Brotherhood figures 31
AIR – November 2020 (EEZs), especially those of a It is still unclear whether myriad tiny Greek Islands off these activities are simply an Turkey’s coast, which have opening gambit by Turkey essentially confined Turkey’s intended to be bargained down
ESSAY maritime zone to a small corner during talks or whether Ankara of the Mediterranean Sea. This actually intends to maintain is why Turkey has refused to these claims. With Turkey’s sign up to the United Nations growing military power, how- Convention for the Law of the ever, the provocations in the Sea (UNCLOS), which it is eastern Mediterranean against trying to circumvent, arguing Greece and Cyprus are likely islands cannot generate EEZs. to become far worse and will The second related problem inevitably implicate Israel. revolves around the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus TURKEY, SYRIA, IRAQ (TRNC), an internationally AND THE KURDS unrecognised entity Turkey Turkey’s extensive occupa- established in the 1970s during Turkey has been aggressively trying to enforce expansive tion of areas of Iraq and Syria Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) for both itself and the “Turk- a conflict with the then Greek ish Republic of Northern Cyprus” in the Mediterranean, includ- is often portrayed as part of an junta over Cyprus. The island is ing by drilling in internationally-recognised Cypriot waters expansionist “neo-Ottoman” still divided today despite de- imperial policy, but it is in fact cades of talks on reunification. Turkey Cyprus and Greece, and the UAE, largely a function of its on-and-off has used its occupation to challenge which has been partaking in exercises war with the PKK and the massive Cyprus’ EEZ by claiming one for the in Greece alongside Israel for several refugee influxes from Syria since 2011 TRNC, while seeking to undermine years, hosted a summit for Cyprus due to the depopulation campaigns by more broadly Cyprus’ claims to and Greece in late 2019. The US has the Assad regime and its supporters. recently-discovered gas reserves and also been increasing its military pres- Turkey initially had a very proactive its cooperation with Greece, Israel, ence and deepening its alliance with policy in Syria to overthrow the Assad Egypt and others in the East Mediter- Greece and Cyprus, even partially regime by backing primarily Islamist ranean Gas Forum (EMGF). lifting the 1970s arms embargo on rebel groups and encouraging a Mus- These gas discoveries have given the latter as it reimposed an unofficial lim Brotherhood dominated opposition impetus to an already-coalescing al- arms embargo on Turkey. A separate movement. The rise of the PKK in liance between Israel, Egypt, Cyprus anti-Turkey alliance involving Egypt, Syria, encouraged by the Assad regime and Greece – encouraged by the US – the UAE, Greece, Cyprus and France and then supercharged by the alliance that Turkey views as an attempt to cut was announced in 2020. of its Syrian branch, the PYD, with the it out of regional gas supply and con- In Libya, Turkey and its proxy, US against the Islamic State, appears tain it, particularly via the proposed the “Government of National Accord to have changed Turkey’s priorities. EastMed pipeline that would bypass (GNA),” are locked in a temporarily- 2015 saw a PKK attempt to take over Turkey and carry gas to Europe. paused war with warlord Khalifa areas of Turkey. Since then, Turkey has Israel is still reportedly involved Haftar and his “Libyan National Army,” focused primarily on limited invasions in talks with Turkey over gas, as it which has been attempting to take of territory controlled by PKK-affili- has been since 2017. Moreover, the full control of the country for several ated groups to clear militants from its viability of the EastMed Pipeline is years with the backing of the UAE, borders and forcibly return some of questionable and remains theoretical Egypt, Russia, France and others. As the approximately 4 million refugees for the time being. Turkey continues part of Turkey’s intervention to halt it hosts. to carry out provocative drilling in Haftar’s advance, it signed a farci- In Iraq, Turkey has an extensive Cyprus’ EEZ, but there are no proven cal deal with the GNA delineating network of bases and tens of thou- gas reserves in the area where it’s maritime borders that essentially gave sands of troops hunting the PKK in its drilling. The conflict, then, is less Turkey full control of the eastern primary base in Qandil and the north about gas per se and more about Mediterranean. This was obviously of the country, using its new-found Turkey demonstrating it won’t be rejected by the international commu- drone capabilities to aggressively pur- excluded or contained. nity and was followed by an equally sue the group. Israel has also been increasing far-fetched deal between Greece and Israel’s current relationship with 32 its trilateral military alliance with Egypt on EEZs. the PKK and associated groups is
AIR – November 2020 unclear, although Israel is allegedly tions with Iran. Furthermore, Iran’s powerful, and its hostility to Israel providing mainly humanitarian aid to penetration of Armenia’s economy is will remain a feature of its politics Syrian Kurdish groups linked to the extensive, and Armenia has reportedly for the foreseeable future. In spite PKK. According to then-Deputy For- supplied weapons to the IRGC. The of this, outright Israeli conflict with eign Affairs Minister Tzipi Hotovely, US even sanctioned Armenia-based Turkey is unlikely, and even Erdogan ESSAY Israel has also forcefully advocated on companies for facilitating Mahan Air, has shown cynical pragmatism in behalf of the Syrian Kurds to the US. a private Iranian airline which alleg- his relations with Israel and com- “The possible collapse of the Kurdish edly acts as the IRGC’s transport and partmentalised various elements of hold in north Syria is a negative and logistics service. the relationship, such as trade and dangerous scenario as far as Israel is It is Turkey that has apparently tourism. Yet judging from recent concerned,” she said. driven the most recent escalation, events, the more powerful Turkey Israel was the only country to dispatching its Syrian mercenar- becomes, the more this pragmatism have publicly supported an indepen- ies and drones to assist Azerbaijan. will recede. Where necessary, Israel dent Kurdish State in Iraq following While there may be tacit coordination is capable of pushing back, directly a referendum there in 2017, a posi- between Israel and Turkey in support or indirectly, and drawing its own tion which infuriated Erdogan and of Azerbaijan, it is far more likely that red lines for Turkey’s brinkmanship led him to accuse the Mossad of being Turkey is trying to edge out Israel. across the region. involved in the independence referen- Azerbaijan is a crucial oil supplier In terms of conventional military dum there. Israel’s natural and histori- for Israel, and became Turkey’s most power, Turkey is much stronger than cal sympathy for Kurdish indepen- important gas supplier in 2020, and Iran, and could represent an existen- dence is unlikely to change regardless Turkey may believe it can outbid tial challenge to Israel if it had the of the relationship with Turkey. Israel’s influence and use gas and oil same genocidal, revolutionary intent supplies as a pressure point. that drives Iran. Thankfully, Erdo- THE CURIOUS CASE Ultimately, Turkey’s likely goal is gan’s actions to date do not match OF AZERBAIJAN AND to supplant the international group his venomous rhetoric. The challenge ARMENIA responsible for mediating the Ar- Turkey presents to Israel is that of Israel and Turkey are both allies of menia/Azerbaijan conflict since the a rising power ruled by an erratic Azerbaijan, and when the historical 1990s, the Organisation for Security dictator seeking to overturn a re- dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) gional order of which Israel is a key region flared into all-out conflict with Minsk Group – co-chaired by the US, element, not a revolutionary power Armenia recently, sophisticated Israeli France, and Russia. It would like to like Iran which has made destroy- drones that had been sold to Azer- replace it with a trilateral arrange- ing Israel a key element of its raison baijan were front and centre. Israel is ment with Russia and Iran, similar to d’etre. As both Turkey and Israel Azerbaijan’s largest arms supplier, and the “Astana” partnership between the have demonstrated, regardless of the an “air train” has reportedly been es- three countries in Syria. rhetoric and ideological conflict, it tablished over the past few weeks for should still be possible to maintain Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence cargo urkey is likely to become more some sort of relationship and avoid planes to fly to Israeli military bases. Taggressive as it becomes more direct clashes. Armenia, on the other hand, has had a historically close relationship with Iran, which has allegedly been With compliments from shipping it arms. Iran is officially neutral in the conflict over Nagorno- Karabakh and, like Russia, has pre- sented itself as a mediator rather than participant. Officially, Iran, like Russia, recognises Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory. On the other hand, some of the most serious IRGC and Hezbollah terrorist plots have been directed at Israeli assets and individuals in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has helped foil these, severely straining its rela- 33
AIR – November 2020 NAME OF SECTION
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AIR – November 2020 THE MONTH IN MEDIA QUOTEDNOTEDNAME OF SECTION AND
A DAY OFF Numerous attempts at reconciliation, it is widely understood that they are The 20th anniversary of the start including a prisoner exchange agree- very unlikely to happen anytime soon, of the Palestinian campaign of terror ment in 2012 and a short-lived coali- if at all. against Israel known as the “Second tion government two years later, have Intifada” was marked by the Daily Tele- failed to close the rift. Including PLO graph’s “On this Day” column (Sept. elections, the agreement paves the STOP CATERING TO THE 28) which stated: way for Hamas to join the organisa- PALESTINIANS “2000 – Israeli opposition leader tion, which unites various Palestinian In the Australian (Oct. 12), Men- Ariel Sharon visits the al-Aqsa mosque factions under Fatah.” zies Research Centre executive site in Jerusalem, known as Temple Senior Palestinian official Hanan director Nick Cater highlighted the Mount, affronting Palestinians and Ashrawi was quoted saying new elec- need to stop funding the Palestinian causing a revolt in which more than tions were a “long overdue” move to leadership which refuses to end the 6500 die.” “revitalise and unify Palestinian ranks” conflict with Israel. Even allowing for the brevity of whilst Saleh al-Arouri, a top Hamas Increasing the number of Arab the section, this is grossly simplistic official, said, “Divisions have damaged countries that make peace with Israel and biased. our national cause and we are work- “ill suits” the Palestinian leadership, Many Palestinian leaders have ing to end that.” “which has turned a historical griev- admitted that after rejecting an Israeli It is obvious that political divisions ance into a successful business model. offer at the Camp David peace sum- have rendered a single Palestinian Their vested interest in perpetuating mit in July 2000 to establish a Pales- position for peace talks with Israel resentment has been one of the larg- tinian state, then-Palestinian Authority impossible, so the question of what est obstacles to peace. Now it finds President Yasser Arafat issued orders might follow any election process, if it itself out in the cold.” to prepare for a campaign of terror actually eventuates, is unclear. He highlighted media reports that and incitement. Sharon’s visit was an “financial aid [to the Palestinians] excuse. And what followed was not a from Arab Gulf states has dried up “revolt” but a campaign of terrorism MIXED MESSAGES since March,” whilst “Ramallah’s total supported by the elected Palestinian SBS TV “World News” reporter revenues are said to have fallen about Authority government. Omar Dehen’s story (Sept. 25) on the 70 per cent this year to $US255m Fatah-Hamas election announcement from $US500m.” included Fatah senior official Jibril In contrast, left-leaning Western NOT SO SWEET Rajoub saying, “restoring our national political parties “are loath to recognise RECONCILIATION unity is a strategic end. Dialogue is the significance of Trump’s initia- The Australian’s report (Sept. 26) the only course to take.” tive… unless an incoming Democrat on Hamas and Fatah announcing an Rajoub – who infamously said he administration… adopts” Trump’s agreement to hold parliamentary and would drop a nuclear bomb on Israel approach, Cater argued. presidential elections in the next six if given the chance – was clearly not months offered clues as to why the referencing trying to end the conflict Israel-Palestinian conflict endures. by talking to Israelis at the negotiating A GULF APART The AFP-sourced report noted table. An SBS TV “World News” report that the last Palestinian parliamentary Dehen said, “the rivals have united (Sept. 23) on the annual world lead- poll in 2006 “resulted in a brief unity in their opposition to Israel’s plans to ers’ speeches to the UN General government, but it soon collapsed annex parts of the West Bank, and its Assembly focused on the ongoing and in 2007 bloody clashes erupted deals with Arab states Bahrain and the conflict over the 2015 Iran nuclear in the Gaza Strip between the two UAE to normalise relations.” deal which the US left in 2018. principal Palestinian factions. Hamas Although Israeli PM Binyamin Ne- After featuring critical comments has since ruled Gaza, while Fatah has tanyahu has insisted that plans to ex- at the UN by Iranian President Hassan run the Palestinian Authority based tend Israeli sovereignty to parts of the Rouhani and French President Em- in the West Bank city of Ramallah. West Bank have only been suspended, manuel Macron directed at the US 35
AIR – November 2020 stance, SBS reporter Matt Connellan the United Nations General Assembly COMING UP TRUMPS pointed out that, “the UN General in which he called on UN Secretary- A number of media commenta- Assembly has long been a forum for General Antonio Guterres to convene tors argued US President Donald taking a pot shot at the US.” an international conference in 2021 Trump has not been given the credit
NOTED AND QUOTEDNOTED AND On Sept. 25, an Australian report that will “have full authority to launch he deserves for his foreign policy noted Saudi Arabia’s King Salman’s a genuine peace process based on achievements. comments to the UN, citing Iranian international law.” In News Corp papers (Oct. 1), attacks on its oilfields in 2019, whilst For a decade, Abbas has at- columnist Andrew Bolt wrote that, the “kingdom’s hands were extended tempted to internationalise the “List some of his achievements and to Iran in peace with a positive and conflict in the hope an imposed you’d swear they were of some peace- open attitude over the past decades, solution – preferably involving the nik president — a Jimmy Carter, but to no avail.” automatic pro-Palestinian majority but with talent… Trump is the first at the UN – will force Israeli with- president since Carter not to send US drawals from the West Bank with- troops to a new war, and has pulled A BIT OF AN IMPOSITION out the need for the Palestinians to them out of Syria. He’s helped to On Sept. 27, the Daily Telegraph actually make peace. negotiate many more peace deals reported on Palestinian Authority than most other presidents – between President Mahmoud Abbas’ speech to Israel and the United Arab Emirates,
Foreign Relations (State and Territory Arrangements) (Conse- AND OUT OF quential Amendments) Bill 2020 and Australia’s Foreign Relations (State and Territory Arrangements) Bill 2020 – Oct. 13 – “I’m particularly interested in the NTEU’s [National Tertiary Education Minister for Foreignˆ Affairs Marise Payne (Lib., NSW) in a Union] thoughts…on what the impact of this legislation would media release – Oct. 4 – “Today I announce the appointment of be, potentially, on academic freedom, particularly on issues… Mr Paul Griffiths as Australia’s next Ambassador to Israel. where civil society may not agree with the foreign policy positions “Australia and Israel have a close relationship underpinned by of our government. I’m thinking, particularly, of our US policy or strong historical connections and significant people-to-people our policy on the relationship with Israel and Palestine.” links. Australia’s vibrant and active Jewish community has made an Jamie Parker (Greens, Balmain) in NSW Parliament – Sept. enduring contribution to the warmth of the bilateral relationship. 17 – “We need to stand against antisemitism and the scourge of Australia established diplomatic relations with the newly-formed Islamophobia where just last month an Australian terrorist— State of Israel in 1949… Australia and Israel have developed that is right, an Australian; it is an issue that we need to face- … substantial cooperation since then, with recently increased en- was sentenced to life in prison for murdering 51 Muslims in gagement on innovation and technology, and enhanced defence attacks in Christchurch. Speaking out is especially important and security links. We also have a growing trade and investment when it comes to incitement to violence by white supremacists relationship, driven by Australia’s innovation Landing Pad in Tel and extremists like Jim Saleam [chairman of the Australia First Aviv and our Trade and Defence Office in Jerusalem… I thank Party] or Ismail al-Wahwah [leader of Hizb ut-Tahrir Australia].” outgoing Ambassador Chris Cannan for his contributions to ad- Natalie Ward MLC (Lib., Northern Province) in NSW Parlia- vancing Australia’s interests in Israel since 2017.” ment – Sept. 15 – “In 2017 Ismail al-Wahwah, the leader of the Senator Kimberley Kitching (ALP, VIC) giving the keynote radical fringe Islamic group Hizb ut-Tahrir, spouted a number of address to a United Nations Roundtable on implementing statements… targeted at the Jewish community… They talked standards and norms for peace and security looking forward about knives, infidels and beheading…On 29 July this year Is- to the UN’s 100th anniversary – Sept. 24 – “The only country mail al-Wahwah emerged from the dark cave of hatred in which that is regularly condemned by the UNHRC [United Nations he resides to repost his vile hate speech from 2017 on a YouTube Human Rights Council] for alleged human rights abuses is Israel, channel… I call out this hateful, violent, offensive behaviour. which is the only country subject to a standing agenda item… No matter your religion, your faith or what you believe in, there “Israel is the only country in the Middle East with free elections, is never an excuse to incite violence against anyone in our com- free media, free trade unions, free civil society, freedom for all munity, particularly based on their faith.” religions, and freedom for women and for LGBTI people. Yet Defence Minister Senator Linda Reynolds (Lib., WA) on Twit- it is regularly condemned by a Council dominated by countries ter – Oct. 16 – “Shalom! Earlier this week I had a productive which have none of these things and which demand a far higher bilateral meeting with Israeli Defence Minister [Benny Gantz]. moral standard by other states than they do of themselves.” We explored opportunities to enhance our dynamic bilateral Senator Janet Rice (Greens, VIC) at the Foreign Affairs, De- relationship – including advancing opportunities for both our 36 fence and Trade Legislation Committee hearing into Australia’s defence industries.”
AIR – November 2020 between Israel and Bahrain, and be- to interpret the constitution, and the Mike Pompeo’s statement that Iran’s tween Afghanistan and the Taliban. law, as it is written” and more likely COVID-19 response will not be ham- “He’s also just brokered a deal to respect the principle of religious pered because the new measures do between Serbia and Kosovo, which freedom, rather than to “discover not affect humanitarian aid. fought each other in a savage ethnic secret, hidden, implied new rights in QUOTEDNOTED AND war just 21 years ago. How could the Constitution which accord with the left not applaud this? No wonder contemporary left-liberal ideology CHEWIN’ THE FATWA Trump now has three nominations and compel people and institutions to On ABC Radio National “Reli- for the Nobel Peace Prize, which he abide by that ideology.” gion and Ethics Report” (Sept. 23), won’t get, of course, because he’s Monash University lecturer Dr. well, Trump.” Ali Alizadeh expressed doubt that Elsewhere, in the Australian Fi- IDA KNOWS increased US sanctions on Iran will nancial Review (Oct. 2), Lowy non- In the Spectator Australia (Oct. make it easier for hardliners to resident fellow Thomas Wright said, 10), Ida Lichter detailed how the EU, portray President Hassan Rouhani’s “Trump’s re-election would initially China and Russia have refused to hold tenure as ending in failure. be broadly welcomed in Israel and the Iran accountable for its “egregious” “I don’t know how much reso- Arab world, where leaders accept his human rights abuses, arming foreign nance it would have with the average maximum pressure campaign on Iran, proxies and the breaches of the 2015 Iranian voter, because many of them his indifference towards democracy nuclear deal. would have never expected for any and human rights, and his transac- Lichter said Iran’s development of regime in Iran to be able to normalise tional nature. However, Trump has missiles capable of carrying a nuclear relations with the US or, in fact, for made it clear that he hopes to strike a warhead has accelerated since the any regime in the US to be favourable deal with Iran on its nuclear program 2015 deal, with the signatories “averse to Iran,” Alizadeh said. and that he has little commitment to to penalising Iran or renegotiating a Host Andrew West asked if it was supporting the regional order.” tighter agreement.” naïve to believe in a fatwa Iranian Recently, she said, “the UK, France Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei al- and Germany (E3) abstained [on legedly issued on acquiring nuclear TRUMP WINS RELIGIOUS voting at the UN Security Council to weapons. VOTE extend the conventional arms em- Dr. Alizadeh said, “if the nuclear Australian Foreign Editor Greg bargo on Iran], despite being targets weapons exist, they exist to be used Sheridan noted (Oct. 17) the paradox of Hezbollah terrorism and depots for not in order to bomb people, but that the “vast majority of churchgoing the militia’s weapons and ammonium to intimidate people…. that’s why Christians, Protestant and Catholic, nitrate explosives.” all sorts of people from all sorts of and the overwhelming majority of These stances have contributed religious backgrounds have developed Orthodox Jews, will vote for Don- to a “prudent alliance against Iran… nuclear weapons because it can be ald Trump on November 3, just as formed between Israel, the UAE and used to pressurise and coerce one’s they did four years ago,” despite the Bahrain,” she wrote. regional rivals, especially in economic “ethical case against Trump” being and trade matters. And the regime “substantial”. feels that if they become a nuclear Sheridan said, “most surveys SANCTION JUNCTION power, then their position domesti- suggest Trump will win the votes On Sept. 23, the Australian’s re- cally will be stabilised and that region- of nearly 90 per cent of Orthodox port on US moves to impose second- ally also they will be able to further Jews, though he will lose among Jews ary sanctions on companies that sell intimidate the regional rivals. First overall.” dual use equipment to Iran “that has and foremost, the Saudis.” Leftist opposition to the Supreme civilian applications but that might be The truth is that the assertion Court nomination for Judge Amy used for military purposes” quoted that Khamenei issued a fatwa against Coney Barrett, a practising Catholic, US special representative for Iran nuclear weapons is unsupported by is an example of why Trump has the and Venezuela and past AIJAC guest any solid evidence – it is nowhere backing of these different religious Elliott Abrams warning countries “to in his official list of fatwas – and is groups despite his ethical shortcom- think twice, the penalties are right an Iranian propaganda claim pushed ings, Sheridan said. around the corner.” by those wanting to pretend Iran is Barrett, he said, is “an immensely An Oct. 10 Australian report noted not seeking nuclear weapons despite distinguished legal academic” and “a further sanctions on Iran’s banking truly overwhelming evidence to the legal conservative” whose “approach is industry and US Secretary of State contrary. 37
AIR – November 2020 Possessing an “arsenal” that would in the relationship with its former be the “envy of any small nation”, largest donor, the US… the threat of POLITICAL SAIKAL Hezbollah is responsible for attacks on coronavirus ripping through refugee On ABC Radio National “Drive” Jews, Israelis and Americans and “for camps... home to many of the 5.6
NOTED AND QUOTEDNOTED AND (Oct. 12), academic Amin Saikal years the group has been making plans million Palestinians supported by suggested that a recent order by Iran and stockpiling weapons for attacks UNRWA.” for Iraqi Shi’ite militias to “lay low” across the globe, including in Africa, The reality is that, since 1949, in- was meant to deny President Trump Asia, Europe and North and South stead of fulfilling its original mandate an excuse to confront Iran for po- America,” he wrote. to resettle Palestinian Arabs displaced litical gain ahead of the Presidential Meanwhile, the Australian’s report in the 1948 war, UNRWA has let elections. (Oct. 16) that Israel and Lebanon held millions of their descendants inherit According to Saikal, “I wouldn’t unprecedented negotiations to demar- refugee status, even when they have be surprised if Iran has instructed its cate the countries’ maritime borders citizenship in countries such as Jordan affiliated Shia militias in Iraq to lay noted that “Hezbollah and Amal or live under Palestinian Authority low and don’t cause major obstruc- issued a statement… bemoaning the rule. It also shamelessly promotes the tions, which could possibly result in presence of civilians in the Lebanese legally baseless and politically impos- a confrontation between Iran and the negotiating team.” sible Palestinian “right of return” to United States. And of course, this Israel, thus becoming a major obstacle would be at a time when the United to a two-state peace, and has a history States or the Trump Administration STOCKHOLM SYNDROME of facilitating terrorism and incite- may well seek some sort of confronta- ABC Radio National “Breakfast” ment via its institutions. tion with Iran given the forthcoming (Oct. 19) asked Stockholm Interna- elections in the United States.” tional Peace Research Institute senior In fact, the record shows that researcher Pieter Wezeman about the JUST CAPITAL Trump has spent his whole term of significance of the arms embargo on The ABC has confirmed it does office studiously avoiding any direct, Iran ending. not consider Tel Aviv to be Israel’s large scale military confrontations with Wezeman said even before the capital, after AIJAC pointed out to the Iran, preferring economic sanctions COVID-19 crisis, Iran’s economy was national broadcaster cases where the and small targeted actions such as the in bad shape, so there is little prospect national broadcaster said it was. hit on Iranian Major General Qassem for large spending. Writing to the ABC, AIJAC Soleimani in Baghdad early this year. Iran would most likely continue pointed out two instances. to develop its native arms industry, A newsreader on the ABC TV 6pm particularly missiles which “don’t have news bulletin (Oct. 4) covering anti- THE WING THING to be hi-tech to be effective if you government protests in Israel had In the Australian (Oct. 12), Swin- want to threaten your neighbours,” he claimed “the biggest demonstrations burne academic Jason Thomas called explained. have been held in the capital, Tel Aviv.” on Australia to follow the UK and In addition,a similar claim had been proscribe Hezbollah in its entirety, on the ABC website since December saying “it’s a pipe dream to believe RAH! RAH! UNRWA! 2018 when Australia recognised west there is a difference between the po- An online Guardian Australia story Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. litical and military wing.” (Oct. 12) claiming people in Gaza AIJAC’s letter pointed out that, Just as AIJAC has done for many are so desperate for food they have “Tel Aviv is not Israel’s capital and no years, Thomas quoted Hezbollah lead- taken to rummaging through garbage Israeli government has ever desig- ers to support this point, including the was a puff piece spruiking the con- nated the city as the country’s capital,” head of its parliamentary bloc Moham- troversial United Nations Relief and adding that, “Although the over- mad Raad, who said in 2013, “the Hez- Works Agency (UNRWA) – which whelming majority of countries keep bollah military wing is a lie invented by has provided free aid, medical assis- their embassies in Tel Aviv, none of the Europeans because they feel a need tance, education and employment to them classify the city as Israel’s capital to communicate with us” and Hezbol- Palestinians since 1949, but has also either.” lah’s second-in-command, Naim Qas- become a major obstacle to peace. The ABC apologised and said the sem’ statement that “The same lead- According to the report, UNRWA incorrect references were removed ership that directs the parliamentary is facing a myriad of challenges, in- from the online version of the Oct. and government work also leads jihad cluding, “seemingly permanent threat 4 TV news bulletin and the 2018 38 actions in the struggle against Israel.” of financial ruin…[a] breakdown webpage.
AIR – November 2020 Allon Lee MEDIA MICROSCOPE DESCENDANTS OF ABRAHAM supporting” Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and “many Media shockwaves from the historic Abraham Accords Palestinians living in Kuwait fled during and immediately signed by Bahrain and the UAE with Israel on Sept. 15 after the Gulf War.” continued to ripple out well into October. Al-Saif said not all Palestinians supported the invasion On ABC Radio National “Saturday Extra” (Sept. 26), for- but “reducing the presence of Palestinians after liberation” mer Palestinian Authority legal adviser Diana Bhuttu said and engagement at the official level whilst maintaining the accords are “not peace agreements…because there was humanitarian aid “speaks to the farsightedness of Kuwaiti no state of war,” adding, “you policymaking.” can’t normalise with a country “Alex Ryvchin said the Accords have Kuwait’s rulers were so that isn’t normal.” shattered the ‘idea that normalisation “farsighted” that today there are Bhuttu dismissed host Ger- of relations between Israel and the Arab only 80,000 Palestinians living aldine Doogue’s question about states was inseparable from the Israeli- in Kuwait, down from 400,000 in 1990. Palestinian rejection of Israeli Palestinian peace process’” offers to create a Palestinian On the same program, state, accusing Israel of never having attempted to “decolo- Lowy Institute analyst Rodger Shanahan said the UAE sign- nise”, i.e. unilaterally uprooting settlements and withdraw- ing was “certainly significant…perhaps less so Bahrain” and ing its army. predicted “a couple of other more fringe countries” might Except, it tried that in Gaza in 2005, but Hamas quickly follow but not “Kuwait or Saudi Arabia.” usurped control and turned the territory into a terrorist base. An informative and balanced ABC Radio National “Rear Bhuttu claimed Israel rejected the March 2002 Saudi Vision” program on Oct. 4 explored the evolving attitudes peace plan which offered Israel peace and normalisation of Arab countries towards Israel from 1948 till 2020. with all Arab countries in exchange for an ending “their In the Spectator Australia (Oct. 17), Executive Council of military rule and… colonisation.” Australian Jewry co-CEO Alex Ryvchin said the Accords The Saudi plan – issued on a take it or leave it basis at have shattered the “idea that normalisation of relations the height of the Second Intifada – was actually similar in between Israel and the Arab states was inseparable from many ways to Israeli offers the Palestinian Authority re- the Israeli-Palestinian peace process” and undermined jected, except it included language insisting on the legally foreign policy experts, such as Obama-era US Secretary of baseless Palestinian “right of return” incompatible with a State John Kerry, who insisted in 2016: ‘There will be no genuine two-state peace. separate peace between Israel and the Arab world. I want Bhuttu also absurdly claimed that Palestinians and Arabs to make that very clear to all of you… Everybody needs to have never “denied… Jewish attachment to the land.” understand that.’” Following Bhuttu, US academic Rashid Khalidi was less Ryvchin said, “The possibility that the Arab world bombastic but equally maximalist in his ideological positions. might be fatigued with the Palestinian issue was not one Dismissing the UAE and Bahrain as “regimes”, he sug- Kerry was willing to entertain. To do so would upend con- gested normalisation with Israel was dishonourable, and ventional wisdom in the Washington and European foreign lamented the PLO’s signing of the Oslo Accords which policy establishments.” “cemented occupation”. Reports about the official Israeli delegation which Apparently referring to the late King Hussein of Jordan travelled to Bahrain to sign a communique establishing and President Anwar Sadat of Egypt, he said “this is not the formal diplomatic ties between the two countries ran first time that unpopular or undemocratic, in many cases only on the ABC website (Oct. 19) and in the Canberra hated Arab regimes, have entered into agreements with Times (Oct. 20). Israel.” SBS’s website reported on the Trump Administration’s On ABC Radio National “Saturday Extra” (Oct. 3), Kuwait push to convince Sudan to make peace with Israel by using University’s Bader Mousa Al-Saif told Doogue that Kuwait the “leverage” of removing it from the US State Sponsor will be “the last Arab country to normalise” because there of Terrorism list. The story noted that “Sudan’s top gen- is “huge pro-Palestinian support… so trying to change that eral, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, in February held a landmark will not come as easily as… in other Gulf capitals.” meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Doogue noted that the Palestinians “were suspected of in Uganda.” 39
AIR – November 2020 NAME OF SECTION Jeremy Jones
EX CATHEDRA Christian) participants found shocking, even morally Some years ago, well before interfaith dialogue was repugnant. commonplace, a group of senior Jewish and Christian lead- The document’s compiler said that he was acting in the ers met in Sydney. appropriate manner for a person who adopted the “soli- There had been a number of reports of preaching darity model” of advocacy. In this template, he explained, which featured antisemitic stereotypes and the circula- you identify the oppressed and the oppressor. You then do tion of material in churches which could inflame not just everything you can to support the oppressed against the contempt but hatred. oppressor. Out of goodwill, the churchmen (they were all male) “Even lie?”, I asked. Yes, you can say anything to support suggested that it would be worthwhile discussing how we the oppressed, including play fast and loose with the truth, could work together to break down stereotypes and sow he informed us. The looks on the faces in the room told the seeds for cooperation on a wider agenda. me that the majority had no idea they had a colleague who We did not come together to agree on theology, to thought truth was expendable in a church publication. endorse social policy platforms or seek to alter political I should mention that the people central to the above opinions, but to address an evil we all saw as a problem incidents were both among those who would be regarded which needed to be confronted. as progressive. Meanwhile, many analyses of the prob- All was going well until one of the lem of antisemitism in churches have Jewish participants noted that in some observed the acceptance of antisemitic of the anti-Israel propaganda circulat- conspiracy theories and the regurgita- ing at the time was a claim that, just as tion of anti-Jewish tropes is a rapidly Jews poisoned the wells of Christians in growing problem in the most extreme the Middle Ages and spread the Black right-wing groups on the Christian Death, Jews were today poisoning the spectrum. water sources of Arabs. Claims of Jewish culpability in the Black A common theme running through One of the church leaders, who was Death find echoes in modern accusations much of the antisemitism of the pro- a figure of some national prominence, against Israel gressive and reactionary Christians is said that this was not antisemitism as it was plausible and, the idea that some incredibly powerful force, labelled “In- when pressed, argued that it was well-known Jews had ternational Zionism,” but with no relationship to Zionism poisoned Christians throughout history. as it is rationally understood, is an existential enemy of all His colleagues then temporarily adjourned the meeting, which is good. before returning and letting us know their now-unanimous The idea that Judaism was superseded when Christianity view that this was, indeed, an antisemitic slur. emerged – often with the associated concept that Jews are Fast forward to another meeting between Jewish and theologically destined to forever wander the world and suf- Christian leaders a decade later, where the subject of dis- fer a variety of indignities as a result of rejecting “the Truth” cussion was a document one Australian church had circu- – is a staple for a spectrum of antisemitic Christians. lated which contained demonstrable untruths and thinly- Within the very broad church which is contemporary veiled antisemitic caricatures when talking about Israelis. Christianity, the battles between those who have neutral or In the context of a constructive attempt to find ways positive views of Jews and those who see Jews as enemies to not just set things right in terms of the false informa- are being fought on many levels, in many different ways. tion, but to also develop a relationship which would limit These issues will be contested within the churches, the prospects of this recurring, among those with the same broad beliefs and philosophical the author of the document and cultural understandings. explained his actions in a way The outcomes will reveal much about the integrity and which the Jewish (and some moral foundations of those who identify as Christians.
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