Cyngor Sir Powys County Council

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CYNGOR SIR POWYS COUNTY COUNCIL

LOCAL HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT

Update 2014

Published: March 2015

Executive Summary

This Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) is an update to the Powys LHMA published in 2010. The Welsh Government’s methodology as set out in the ‘Step by Step Guide’ (2012) was applied, updating and accounting for changes in population and household projections as identified in the initial 2011 Census results, changes in house prices and household income, as well as new information arising from housing registers, local needs surveys and anticipated impacts of the welfare reform. As population and household estimates and projections are constantly being revised, a Population & Housing Topic Paper will be published in addition to this assessment to outline any changes for the purpose of informing the Local Development Plan. This assessment will inform the preparation of both the Powys Local Development Plan and the Powys Housing Strategy. The LHMA will be updated every 2 years in accordance with the requirements set out by the new Housing Act 2014.

There was found to be an increasing need for affordable housing for smaller households (one and two beds). The ageing population of Powys and the need to retain and increase the number of young adult households (particularly people in their 20s and 30s) contributes to this need. A large number of people on the council’s housing register were older persons and providing retirement and sheltered housing could help release homes and go some way to helping younger families and first time buyers. The great challenge of the welfare reform looms for households and social landlords. Whilst it is likely this will cause an increased need for one and two bedroom homes and put more pressure on social landlords, as it is likely to increase the cost of collecting rental income, reducing reserves which could potentially have been invested in the development of new homes, the full impacts are yet to be felt across the County.

The identified need for affordable housing in Powys is shown in the table below:. net social Overall rented intermediate intermediate affordable need rented need for sale need housing need Powys 2011-16 1068 148 18 1,234 BBNP within Powys 2011-2016 432 33 4 469 Powys ex BBNP 2011-2016 636 115 14 765 Powys per year 214 30 4 247 BBNP within Powys per year 86 7 1 94 Powys ex BBNP per year 127 23 3 153

Note rows may not add due to rounding

It comprises:  1,234 additional affordable housing units in Powys (including the Brecon Beacons National Park) over the 5 year period from 2011 to 2016 which equates to:  247 additional affordable housing units per year in Powys split between - . 94 per year in the Brecon Beacons National Park area of Powys . 153 per year in the remaining area of Powys  Of the 247 units/annum in Powys the mix of housing need comprises: . 214 additional social rented housing units per year . 30 additional intermediate rented units per year . 4 additional intermediate / affordable housing for sale units per year

These figures should be used as a guide and not taken as definite housing targets. They are subject to change and any additional information available should be taken into consideration.

Please note that any text or numbers highlighted in the Powys green or red colours featured from chapter 4 onwards, correspond to final affordable housing need calculations as presented in chapter 8. Key pages that summarise and conclude housing data are pages 74-75.

Following approval by portfolio holders and cabinet, this document will be circulated to the Strategic Housing Partnership, across the various Directorates of Powys County Council and to other relevant local authorities.

Contents

1. Introduction ...... 7 2. The Powys Housing Market ...... 9 Powys Rent Prices Overview ...... 10 Powys House Prices Overview ...... 11 Powys Household Tenure Estimates ...... 20 Dwelling Stock Condition ...... 23 Empty Homes ...... 24 Housing Trends ...... 26 Rate of Development ...... 26 Demolitions ...... 27 Affordability ...... 28 Social Rent Affordability ...... 32 Intermediate Rent Affordability ...... 34 Private Rent Affordability ...... 35 Home-Buy Affordability ...... 36 Intermediate / Affordable Housing for Sale Affordability ...... 37 Low Cost Market Housing / Starter Homes Affordability ...... 37 Open Market Housing Affordability ...... 38 Summary of Affordability Assessment Results ...... 39 3. Newly Arising Need from New Households ...... 42 Powys Population Projections ...... 42 Powys Household Projections ...... 45 4. Affordability for Newly Arising Households ...... 50 5. Existing Households Falling into Need ...... 52 Homelessness ...... 52 Welfare Reform Changes ...... 54 6. Backlog of Housing Need ...... 57 Backlog of Social Housing Need ...... 57 Limitations ...... 63 Backlog of Intermediate Housing Need ...... 65 7. Affordable Housing Supply ...... 67 Social Rented Housing ...... 67 Social Rent Turnover ...... 69 Committed Supply of Affordable Housing ...... 71 Summary of Social Housing Supply ...... 72 Empty Homes ...... 73 Limitations ...... 73 8. Net Annual Need for Affordable Housing 2011-2016 ...... 74 9. Local Housing Needs Survey ...... 79 10. Gypsy Traveller Accommodation Needs Assessment ...... 85 11. Conclusions & Recommendations ...... 86 Recommendations ...... 88 Bibliography ...... 90 Appendix A – Adjoining Authorities Local Housing Market Assessments ...... 91 Ceredigion Local Housing Market Assessment 2011 ...... 92 Carmarthenshire Local Housing Market Assessment 2009 Annual Review ...... 93 Western Bay Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2012 ...... 94 Rhondda Cynon Taff County Borough Council Local Housing Market Assessment 2012 ...... 95

Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council Housing Market Assessment 2010...... 96 Blaenau Gwent Local Housing Market Assessment Update 2012 ...... 98 Newport, Torfaen & Monmouthshire Local Housing Market Assessment Update 2010, Torfaen Report ...... 99 West Midlands Strategic Housing Market Assessment, West Housing Market Area, (Shropshire & Herefordshire), June 2008 ...... 101 Denbighshire Local Housing Market Assessment, Update June 2011 ...... 104 North East Wales Housing Market Assessment 2008 ...... 106 North West Wales Local Housing Market Assessment – Gwynedd & Snowdonia 2008 ...... 108 Brecon Beacons National Park Affordable Housing Submarket Areas ...... 109 Conclusions of desk top & engagement work ...... 110 Appendix B – List of Acronyms ...... 111 Appendix C– WG 2011-based Household Projections ...... 112 Principal Projections for 2011 to 2016 ...... 112 Lower Variant Projections for 2011 to 2016 ...... 113

List of Tables

Table 1 – Powys UDP Area Centres & Key Settlements………….………………………… 14 Table 2 – Urban/Rural Settlement Classification Categories…………………………… 16 Table 3 – Powys Urban/Rural House Price Analysis for 2012……………………………… 17 Table 4a – Powys Household Tenure 2011…………………………………………………… 21 Table 4b – Powys household tenure by economic activity 2011………………………… 21 Table 5 – LA and RSL Dwelling Stock Estimates by size…………………………………… 22 Table 6 – LA and RSL Dwelling Stock Estimates by type……………..……………………. 23 Table 7 – Council Tax Empty Property Discount …………………………………………… 24 Table 8 – Powys Joint Housing Land Availability Study: completions 2008 to 2013…… 26 Table 9 – Number of Demolitions in Powys 2000/01 to 2012/13………………...………… 27 Table 10 – Mid 2012 estimate of Households in Powys by type…………………………… 31 Table 11 – Affordability of Average Social Rents in Powys 2012-13 ………………………32 Table 12 – Housing Benefits Claimants in Powys April 2011………………………..…… 34 Table 13 – Local Housing Allowances, Broad Market Rental Areas, Powys 2012/13…… 35 Table 6 – Discounted Open Market Rent 2 bedroom properties, Powys 10/4/2012…..... 35 Table 15 – Open Market Rent 2 bedroom properties, Powys 10/4/2012…………………. 36 Table 7 – Home-Buy Affordability, Powys Terraced Houses, 2012…………………….. 36 Table 8 – Intermediate Housing Prices, Powys 2012…………………………………….. .37 Table 9 – Low Cost Market Housing / Starter Home Prices Powys 2012……………..… 38 Table 10 – Open Market Prices 2012……………………………………………………….. 38 Table 20 – Sources of Evidence on the Population of Powys………………………………. 42 Table 21 – WG 2011-based population projections for Powys applied to BBNP within Powys……/……………………………………………..………………………… 44 Table 11 – 2011 Census Powys Population by Local Housing Market Area…………… 45 Table 12 - Powys Projected Number of Households over LHMA periods…………………. 46 Table 13 – Household Projections by Local Housing Market Area 2011-2016…………… 47 Table 14 – Average Household Size in Powys………………………………………………. 48 Table 26 – Estimated annual newly arising need for affordable housing, Powys LHMAs, 2011-2016…………………………..…………………………………………….… 51 Table 27– Mortgage & Landlord Possession Orders, Powys, 2008 – 2012………….…. 52 Table 28 – Homelessness Presentations, Powys 2008/09 to 2012/13……………….… 52 Table 29 – Estimated Annual Homelessness Presentations by size and Local Housing Market Area………………………………...……………………………………….. 53 Table 30 – Social Renting Tenants in Rent Arrears, Powys, 2008/09 to 2012/13…….. 55 Table 31– Housing Benefits Claimants by tenure, Powys, April 2009 – 2013…………… 56

Table 32a Powys LA housing waiting list by size, November 2012………………………… 58 Table 32b Powys LA housing waiting list by type, November 2012……………………….... 58 Table 33a Powys combined RSL housing waiting list by number of bedrooms, November 2012………………………………………………………………..………….…… 59 Table 33b Powys combined RSL housing waiting list by type of need, November 2012… 60 Table 34a estimated combined gross backlog of social rented housing, by size; Powys, November 2012……………..…………….…………………………………………… 61 Table 34b estimated combined gross backlog of social rented housing by type; Powys, November 2012………………………………………….…………………..……...... 62 Table 35 yearly average LA lets, by size & LHM areas, 2009 – 2012……………...…… 67 Table 36 yearly average of RSL lets, by size & LHM areas, 2009 – 2012………………… 68 Table 37– yearly average of social lets, by size & LHM areas, 2009- 2012……………… 68 Table 38 existing social rented stock, Powys, December 2012……………………………. 69 Table 39 – projected turnover rates for social rented housing, Powys 2011-2016………. 70 Table 40 Affordable Housing through Planning Obligations / Rural Exception Sites Powys 2007/08 to 2011/12……………………………..………………………… 71 Table 41 – Annual Committed Supply of Social Housing, 2012-2014……………………… 72 Table 42 – Combined Annual Average Lets & Supply……………………………………… 72 Table 43 – Summary of affordable housing need by area……………………………..…… 75 Summary Table 44a SOCIAL HOUSING - ANNUAL NEED…………………….. 77 Summary Table 44b SOCIAL HOUSING - ANNUAL SUPPLY……………………. 77 Summary Table 44c SOCIAL HOUSING - ANNUAL NET NEED……………….… 78 Summary Table 44d INTERMEDIATE HOUSING – NEED………………………. 78 Table 45 – Local Housing Needs Survey Results………………………………………….. 80 Table 46 impact of principle projection…………………………………………………..… 112 Table 47 Impact of lower variant projection…………………………………………………… 113

List of Figures

Figure 1 – Bath Analogy……………………………………………………………………...… 8 Figure 2 – Powys Local Housing Markets…………………………………………………… 9 Figure 3 – Graph showing Assessment of House Prices by House Type between 2008 & 2012 ……………………………….…………………………..…………………… 11 Figure 4 – Graph showing Average House Prices 2007-2012……………………………… 12 Figure 5 – Graph showing No. of property sales 2007-2012………………..…………… 13 Figure 6 – Map of ONS Urban/Rural Classification for Powys Census Output Areas…… 15 Figure 7 – Average House prices by Local Housing Market Area 2008-2012………….… 19 Figure 8 – Number of Property Sales by Local Housing Market Area 2007-2012…….… 20 Figure 9 – Empty Homes Before and After……………………………………..………….… 25 Figure 10 – Housing tenures ranked by affordability in Powys………………...……….….. 28 Figure 11 – 2012 Powys Household Incomes percentiles …………………………….……. 30 Figure 12 – Affordability Assessment Summary………………………………………….… 40 Figure 13: Affordable Housing Need………………………………...…………………….…. 41 Figure 14: Powys Population Projections and Mid Year Estimates…………………….…. 43 Figure 15 – Housing Market Areas in Ceredigion…………………………………………….. 92 Figure 16 – Neath Port Talbot Local Development Plan Spatial Areas………………….… 94 Figure 17 – Rhondda Cynon Taff Grouped Sub Market Areas………….……………….. 95 Figure 18 – Merthyr CBC Housing Sub-Market Areas……………………………….…….… 96 Figure 19 – Blaenau Gwent Functional Housing Market Areas………………………….…. 98 Figure 20 – Newport, Torfaen and Monmouthshire Housing Market Areas………………. 99 Figure 21– West Midlands Housing Market Areas………………………………….……..… 101 Figure 22 – Denbighshire Local Housing Market Areas…………………………………… 104 Figure 23 – North East Wales Housing Market Areas…………………………………… 106 Figure 24 – North West Wales Local housing market areas, based on wards……………. 108

1. Introduction 1.1 In 2008 the Council commissioned Glyndwr University to prepare a Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) for Powys which was published in September 2010. Since the preparation of the assessment, a number of key evidence sources and variables have changed including:

 2011 census statistics  2011 based population & household projections & estimates for Powys  Changes in house prices and information sources  Changes in local incomes  Welfare Reform

1.2 The Council has therefore undertaken a review of the LHMA in order to provide an up to date assessment of general & affordable housing needs.

1.3 The conclusions of the LHMA published in 2010 recommended that in a future review, the following be taken into consideration:

 The number of empty homes in Powys  The number of persons on housing needs waiting lists in Powys  Any local housing needs survey results  Cross-border linkages with housing markets outside of Powys

1.4 Information from the Council Tax register and the Council house waiting list was taken from November 2012. The LHMA is required to assess housing needs over a 5 year period – 2011-2016, this is the first five years of the Powys 15 year Local Development Plan period 2011-2026.

1.5 The LHMA step by step guide published in March 2012 advises that: “A LHMA provides a snapshot of the housing market at a particular point in time which is projected forward 5 years.” The guidance also encourages the use of the ‘Bath Analogy’ to identify affordable housing needs. This is demonstrated by the diagram below:

Figure 11 – Bath Analogy

Source: Welsh Government (2012) “A Step by Step Guide”

1.6 The assessment therefore includes the number of households likely to be in need from population and household projections (newly arising need), housing registers and homelessness (backlog of need) and the number of lettings and committed supply (affordable housing supply).

2. The Powys Housing Market 2.1 Brief overviews of LHMAs for adjoining authorities are discussed in Appendix A. 2.2 The Powys LHMA published in 2010 identified 9 different local housing markets as shown below: Figure 12 – Powys Local Housing Markets

Source: Fig.96 Powys Local Housing Markets © Glyndŵr University

2.3 Whilst the local housing market areas themselves have not been reviewed, further consultation has been undertaken with adjoining local authorities where it was highlighted that the housing market area extended outside the Powys boundary and into bordering local authority areas.

Powys Rent Prices Overview 2.4 Data collected from the Powys County Council’s Statistical Research and Information Unit shows the snapshot of numbers and mean average rents for private housing advertised for rent in Powys. This was taken from a search through a selection of commercial websites on 10th April 2012 and does not necessarily include every Powys property advertised for rent. The table below shows the findings : Property Number advertised for Average advertised private rent weekly rent one-bedroom 41 £70.06 two-bedroom 87 £97.97 three bedroom 58 £119.28 four bedroom 17 £144.26 five or more bedroom 3 £241.11 Flats 64 £76.59 houses 142 £116.81 Source: PCC records of properties for rent found advertised on given dates

Powys House Prices Overview

Figure 13 – Graph showing Assessment of House Prices by House Type between 2008 & 2012

£300,000

£250,000

£200,000

£150,000 Montgomeryshire Brecon & Radnorshire Powys £100,000

£50,000

£- 2008 2012 2008 2012 2008 2012 2008 2012 2008 2012 Detached Semi-detached Terrace Flat All Source: Land registry, price paid dataset

2.5 The graph above shows that average house prices in Powys for all different property types steadily decreased from 2008 to 2012. House prices are generally higher in Brecon & Radnorshire than Montgomeryshire; however, both have witnessed decreases in property values.

Figure 14 – Graph showing Average House Prices 2007-2012 £200,000

£195,000

£190,000

£185,000

£180,000

Montgomeryshire £175,000 Brecon & Radnorshire Powys £170,000

£165,000

£160,000

£155,000

£150,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Land Registry price paid dataset

2.6 The graph above shows an overall drop in house prices in Powys between 2007 and 2012. Whilst prices did recover slightly in 2010, they did not match prices paid in 2007.

Figure 15 – Graph showing No. of property sales 2007-2012

2500

2000

1500

Montgomeryshire Brecon & Radnorshire Powys 1000

500

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Land Registry price paid dataset

2.7 The graph above shows that the number of properties sold in Powys declined since the peak of the market in 2007. Sales dropped sharply between 2007 and 2008 and have remained low since. The number of sales in Montgomeryshire compared to Brecon & Radnorshire is roughly equal.

2.8 A comparison of recent house prices between Powys’s towns/urban areas and the countryside/rural areas was undertaken for 2012. Two separate methodologies have been used to assess the differences in house prices. The first looks at the difference between property prices within and outside the development boundaries of Areas Centres and Key Settlements as defined by the Powys Unitary Development Plan (UDP) Settlement Hierarchy. A list of these settlements is provided below:

Table 15 – Powys UDP Area Centres & Key Settlements Powys UDP Area Centres & Key Settlements Abermule Machynlleth Berriew Montgomery Bronllys Newbridge on Wye Builth Wells Newtown Caersws Presteigne Carno Rhayader Churchstoke Trefeglwys Crossgates / Fron Tregynon Four Crosses Trewern Howey Welshpool Kerry Ystradgynlais Knighton Llandinam Llandrindod Wells Llanfair Caereinion Llanfyllin Llanidloes Llansantffraid-ym-Mechain Llanwrtyd Wells

2.9 The second methodology uses the Office of National Statistics (ONS) Urban Rural Classification of census output areas from 2008. The map below shows the urban rural classifications for Powys:

Figure 16 – Map of ONS Urban/Rural Classification for Powys Census Output Areas

2.10 This methodology classifies every Census Output Area in Powys into one of the following Categories: Table 16 – Urban/Rural Settlement Classification Categories Powys Urban/Rural in Settlements Powys Context ONS Classification outside BBNP 1 Urban >10k – Sparse Newtown Urban Llandrindod Wells Urban Llanidloes Welshpool Builth Wells Rhayader Machynlleth Presteigne 2 Town and Fringe – Sparse Knighton 3 Village – Sparse Rural 4 Hamlet & Isolated Dwellings - Sparse Rural 5 Urban >10K - Less Sparse Ystradgynlais Urban 6 Town and Fringe - Less Sparse N/A Urban 7 Village - Less Sparse Rural 8 Hamlet & Isolated Dwellings - Less Rural Spars

2.11 A comparison of recent house prices between Powys’s towns/urban areas and for the purpose of this method, categories 1,2 5 & 6 are considered Urban areas in the Powys context and categories 3, 4, 7 & 8 etc are considered rural in the Powys context. There are no census output areas in Powys in category 6 Town & Fringe - Less Sparse. Further information on the

area classifications can be viewed on the Office for National Statistics website. 2.12 The results of the analysis methodologies are shown in the table below:

Table 17 – Powys Urban/Rural House Price Analysis for 2012 Methodology No. Sales Ave price sold Detached 558 £218,030 Semi- Detached 319 £136,708 All Properties Flat 28 £121,732 Terrace 282 £120,850 All 1187 £170,816 1 Inside Area Detached 207 £184,847 Centre and Semi- Key Settlement Detached 174 £123,369 £61,824 Development Flat 20 £86,700 Boundaries Terrace 158 £104,162 and outside BBNP All 559 £139,394 Outside Area Detached 271 £233,717 Centre and Semi- Key Settlement Detached 69 £128,652 Development Flat 2 £306,000 Boundaries Terrace 46 £114,052 and outside BBNP All 388 £201,218

Urban/Town and fringe compared to Village/hamlet and outside BBNP 2 Urban/Town Detached 42 £159,919

and Fringe Semi- 51 £111,940 £55,848

Detached Flat 4 £82,750 Terrace 49 £89,724 All 146 £117,487 Detached 436 £217,624 Semi- Detached 192 £128,303 Village/Hamlet Flat 18 £111,944 Terrace 155 £111,661 All 801 £173,334 Source: Land registry price paid dataset 2012

2.13 The table above shows there is a difference of approximately £56-£62,000 between urban and rural house prices. The results show very few flat sales, with only 72 during the year in total. The majority of sales in more rural areas were of detached properties, with average prices for this type of property of between £217-234,000.

2.14 An assessment of recent house prices from the Land Registry Price Paid dataset for each of the local housing market areas has been undertaken and results are shown in the graphs below.

2.15 Crickhowell & Llangattock Local Housing Market Area within the Brecon Beacons National Park has significantly higher house prices than other parts of Powys. Ystradgynlais Local Housing Market Area has the lowest house prices in Powys. Both areas experienced a fall in house prices of approximately £20,000 from 2011-2012.

Figure 17 – Average House prices by Local Housing Market Area 2008-2012

£280,000

£260,000 Welshpool, Llanfyllin, Llanfair Caereinion & Montgomery £240,000 Machynlleth

£220,000 Newtown & Llanidloes

£200,000 Knighton & Presteigne

Llandrindod & Rhayader £180,000

Builth & Llanwrtyd £160,000

Brecon, Talgarth & Hay £140,000 Ystradgynlais & Ystradfellte £120,000 Crickhowell & Llangattock

£100,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Land Registry Price Paid dataset 2012

Figure 18 – Number of Property Sales by Local Housing Market Area 2007-2012

500

450 Welshpool, Llanfyllin, Llanfair Caereinion & 400 Montgomery Machynlleth

350 Newtown & Llanidloes

300 Knighton & Presteigne 250 Llandrindod & Rhayader 200 Builth & Llanwrtyd 150 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 100 Ystradgynlais & Ystradfellte 50

Crickhowell & Llangattock 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Land Registry Price Paid dataset 2012

2.16 Property sales in Powys fell significantly during 2007 and stayed low in the Machynlleth, Knighton/Presteigne, Llandrindod, Builth, Ystradgynlais and Crickhowell areas. Property sales in the Welshpool, Newtown and Brecon areas were higher to begin with, around 450 in 2007. Whilst they have remained higher compared with the other Local Housing Market Areas in Powys, property sales have fluctuated since the fall in 2007, but overall decreased since 2010.

Powys Household Tenure Estimates 2.17 The table below shows that there were 58,345 households in Powys recorded in the 2011 Census. Of these 8,161 (14%) were in social rented properties owned by the Council or Registered Social Landlords (RSLs).

Table 18a – Powys Household Tenure 2011 TENURE HOUSEHOLDS percent All categories: Tenure 58,345 100.0

Owned: Total 40,090 68.7 Owned: Owned outright 25,626 43.9 Owned: Owned with a mortgage or loan 14,464 24.8

Shared ownership (part owned and part rented) 179 0.3

Social rented: Total 8,161 14.0 Social rented: Rented from council (Local Authority) 5,371 9.2 Social rented: Other social rented 2,790 4.8

Private rented: Total 8,638 14.8 Private rented: Private landlord or letting agency 7,522 12.9 Private rented: Employer of a household member 207 0.4 Private rented: Relative or friend of household member 742 1.3 Private rented: Other 167 0.3

Living rent free 1,277 2.2 Source ONS 2011 census table QS405EW © Crown Copyright

Table 4b – Powys household tenure by economic activity 2011 All HRP Economically active HRP Econ. inactive Tenure categories: Long- HRP In term Retired Other economic employment Unemployed sick or activity disabled All categories: Tenure 100.0% 61.9% 2.0% 30.4% 3.2% 2.5% Owned or shared ownership: Total 69.0% 43.7% 0.6% 23.2% 0.8% 0.8% Owned: Owned outright 43.9% 21.0% 0.3% 21.4% 0.6% 0.6% Social rented: Total 14.0% 5.8% 0.8% 4.6% 1.7% 1.1% Private rented or living rent free: Total 17.0% 12.4% 0.6% 2.7% 0.7% 0.6% Source ONS 2011 census table DC4601EW © Crown Copyright

2.18 The 2011 census also showed that 43.9% of Powys households own their accommodation outright and in almost half of these (21.4% of all households) the household reference person was retired, see table 4b. An unknown percentage of these will be the so-called “asset-rich, income poor” pensioner households living in homes on which they have paid off the mortgages1

2.19 A snapshot of local authority and RSL data was taken in December 2012 that identified dwelling stock by local housing market area, number of bedrooms and type of need. There has been a slight increase in the numbers of dwelling stock for both Powys County Council and RSLs in Powys since 2011. The local authority stock was found to be 5,589 dwellings and the RSL stock 2,816 dwellings, a combined total of 8,405 dwellings as presented in Tables 5 and 6 below. Table 19 – LA and RSL Dwelling Stock Estimates by size bedrooms 1 2 3 4+ total LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 349 683 615 41 1688 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 59 115 108 8 290 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 533 840 857 83 2313 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 88 182 197 10 477 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 176 340 251 16 783 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 47 136 103 5 291 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 337 459 677 49 1522 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 144 405 234 21 804 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 74 87 71 5 237 Grand Total 1807 3247 3113 238 8405 Source: PCC and RSL stock lists, December 2012

1 The income distribution of retired people has not been modelled

Table 6 – LA and RSL Dwelling Stock Estimates by type

der

nership

S&D

Home Home

TOTAL

DiSabled

Sheltered

Supported

Ow Retirement

Needs General LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 1131 474 0 8 75 0 0 0 1688 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 254 34 1 1 0 0 0 0 290 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 1865 365 0 1 50 0 32 0 2313 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 359 116 0 0 2 0 0 0 477 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 557 174 0 0 15 0 36 1 783 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 192 84 0 0 11 0 0 4 291 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 1046 412 2 0 0 6 24 32 1522 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 524 280 0 0 0 0 0 0 804 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 130 73 0 0 0 0 31 3 237 Grand Total 6058 2012 3 10 153 6 123 40 8405 Source: PCC and RSL stock lists, December 2012

2.20 In terms of stock turnover, Figure 8 shows that the number of property sales in all of the local housing market areas of Powys decreased from 2007-2011. Social rented stock turnover and the potential for meeting need through relets is looked at in chapter 7, and utilised to convert gross shortfall to net shortfall in chapter 8.

Dwelling Stock Condition 2.21 Nationally, the Welsh Government imposed the Welsh Housing Quality Standard requiring all social landlords to improve their housing stock to an acceptable standard by 2012 (although the deadline has been extended for some). The Standard (set out in The Welsh Housing Quality Standard Revised Guidance for Social Landlords on Interpretation and Achievement of the Welsh Housing Quality Standard 2008) aims to ensure good quality homes that are:  In a good state of repair  Safe and secure  Adequately heated, fuel efficient and well insulated

 Contain up to date kitchens and bathrooms  Well managed  Located in an attractive and safe environment  As far as possible suit the specific requirements of the household i.e. specific disabilities. 2.22 Powys County Council acting as a social landlord was projected to achieve the Standard for 52% in 2012-13 and nearing 100% by 2017-18 as set out in the Social Landlords’ Performance in Achieving the Welsh Housing Quality Standard (Revised) 2011. These figures were confirmed again in a more recent report by the Wales Audit Office (January 2012) Progress in delivering the Welsh Housing Quality Standard. As of March 31st 2014 3,327 of the social housing stock in Powys were fully compliant with the Standards according to the Welsh Government’s StatsWales database (https://statswales.wales.gov.uk/Catalogue/Housing/Social-Housing-Quality).

Empty Homes 2.23 An empty property discount for Council Tax is available when a property becomes empty and unfurnished. It is exempt from Council Tax for 6 months after which time 50% of the Council Tax becomes payable. The number of claimants, as shown in the Table 7 below, provides a reasonable indication of the number of empty properties in Powys. Powys County Council works with private landlords to bring these back into use.

Table 7 – Council Tax Empty Property Discount No. of Powys Claimants % Empty Property Discount 1,422 2.2% Powys Council Tax Register 63,457 100% Source: PCC Council Tax Register, 1st April 2013

2.24 The Council currently provide assistance to more than 1,000 private households annually and is set to bring at least 30 empty homes back into use during the financial year (2013-14), as identified in the Powys Change Plan 2013-16. However these figures are best looked at over several years and not just taken from a snapshot in time. Numbers can vary greatly year to year. If we take the financial year 2012-2013, nearly 40 empty homes were brought back into use, but this is one of the exceptional years and often the year immediately before or after could see only 10 for example.

Figure 19 –Empty Homes Before and After

(Source: Powys County Council)

The rate of renewal of the empty homes depends on the available finance over a particular year and quite often there may be a number of homes nearing completion towards the end of one year, but don’t fully complete and could not be counted until the following year. Interest free loans from the Council, as well as renewal area finance, are the mechanisms most commonly used to bring the empty homes back into use. Substantial loans sometimes become available and this can often mean a large number of empty homes are brought back into use very quickly, meaning a boost in figures for one year and a lag the next as it might be a while before the money invested is recycled or similar opportunities come round again. A recent example of the type of loans used is the Welsh Government’s ‘Houses into Homes’ scheme which created a £500,000 fund for

the Council to help private landlords through interest free loans to be paid back within 3 years.

2.25 The number of empty homes likely to be brought back into use (eg 20-25 per annum on average) can contribute to meeting housing needs.

Housing Trends Rate of Development

Table 8 –Powys Joint Housing Land Availability Study: completions 2008 to 2013 Local 6 year Annual Total Planning 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Average Completions Authority Average 2009-13 Powys 366 159 253 239 98 223 1,338 223 194 Brecon Beacons 65 55 45 19 67 87 338 56 55 National Park Source: Powys Joint Housing Land Availability Study 2013

2.26 According to the Powys Joint Housing Land Availability Study (JHLAS) the rate of development in Powys (exc BBNP area) generally fell from 2008 to 2012, but started to rise in 2013. Completions hit a low in 2012 with only 98 dwellings being completed. The decrease in the rate of development is closely linked to the general housing market crash and sustained recession the economy has experienced since 2007. Limited developer finance and mortgage availability have contributed to continued low development rates in Powys. Similarly, the BBNP experienced a decline in the rate of development since 2008 to a low in 2011, however in 2012 & 2013 rates increased back up to a similar level seen in 2008.

Demolitions

Table 9 – Number of Demolitions in Powys 2000/01 to 2012/13 Within Not within Within Not within Clearance Total clearance clearance renewal renewal areas areas areas areas Year 2000-01 0 0 0 . . 2001-02 1 0 1 . . 2002-03 0 0 0 . . 2003-04 0 0 0 . . 2004-05 0 0 0 . . 2005-06 0 0 0 . . 2006-07 0 0 0 . . 2007-08 0 0 0 . . 2008-09 0 0 0 . . 2009-10 0 0 0 0 0 2010-11 1 0 1 0 1 2011-12 0 0 0 0 0 2012-13 0 0 0 0 0 Source: Stats Wales, Welsh Government, Demolitions statistics © Crown Copyright2

2.27 Only one demolition was recorded in 2010-11 as shown in the table above.

Possible Drivers for Change 2.28 The Local Authority Mortgage Scheme has been suspended in Wales but has provided 45 households with access to mortgages in 2012/13. Whilst the reform of the Housing Revenue Account Subsidy will potentially deliver new homes this is not possible to quantify at present but may approach 20 homes over the coming 5 years.

2 https://statswales.wales.gov.uk/Catalogue/Housing/Demolitions/DwellingsDemolished-by-Authority- Clearance

Affordability 2.29 This section provides estimates of the percentages of households that can afford to buy or rent residential properties across Powys as a whole. These county level percentages are applied in chapter 4 to each of the Local Housing Market Areas. 2.30 The figure below gives a list of the various types of housing tenures available in Powys. They are ranked by affordability in terms of the average income required to take up each tenure, from lowest (Social Rented Housing) to highest (Open Market Housing for Sale).

Figure 20 – Housing tenures ranked by affordability in Powys Tenure Basis for Cost Calculations Benchmark Social Rented Housing average rent charged by LA and RSLs. 2 bedrooms Intermediate Rented 80% of average advertised private rent3 OR full 2 bedrooms Housing Local Housing Market Allowance, whichever is the lowest. Intermediate / Affordable 80% mortgage, 20% deposit, (80:20 LVR); terraced Housing for Sale4 Discounted OMV by 31%; Mortgage multiplier = 3.5 * annual income Low Cost Open Market 80% mortgage, 20% deposit, (80:20 LVR); terraced Housing for Sale (Starter purchase at lower quartile open market price; Homes) Mortgage multiplier = 3.5 * annual income. Private Rented Housing average advertised private rent 2 bedrooms Home-Buy / Shared Equity 70% mortgage, 30% deposit provided by RSL; terraced Housing for Sale (Low purchase at average open market price; Cost Home Ownership) Mortgage multiplier = 3.5 * annual income. Open Market Housing for 80% mortgage, 20% deposit, (80:20 LVR); terraced Sale Purchase at average open market price; Mortgage multiplier = 3.5 * annual income.

3 Obtained by PCC Research & Information Unit private rental monitoring 4 as defined by Planning Policy & Supplementary Planning Guidance

2.31 “Low Cost Home Ownership” provides households with a ‘stepping stone’ into home ownership via shared equity or shared ownership arrangements” (WAG, 2011, p.18). It should be noted that shared ownership tenure (50 /50 split between mortgage and rent) has been omitted from this assessment because it is so rarely offered in Powys owing to its lack of affordability.

2.32 The benchmark property is dependent on the tenure being assessed. A two bedroom property has been selected as the benchmark for rented housing, because this is the most common and popular rented property size in Powys. For sale and shared equity properties the benchmark is a terraced house, because these are on average the cheapest properties for sale apart from flats which are not as common or popular in Powys.

2.33 The following data has informed this assessment:  Welsh Government Rent Office benchmark rents, 2012  Average Social Rents 2012-13. Statswales  Welsh Government Rent Office Local Housing Allowance, April 2012  PCC private market rental monitoring, April 2012  Land Registry Price Paid dataset, 2012  PCC in-house model of household incomes distribution 2012  Welsh Government mid-2012 estimate of households in Powys

2.34 As mentioned above, this assessment uses an in-house model of the statistical distribution of household incomes in Powys. The model combines the 2012 median average household incomes estimates published by the Local Government Data Unit from CACI Paycheck, with the distribution of wages for full time employment in Powys 2012 published by the ONS in the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE). The following table and graph show the estimated percentiles of annual household incomes in 2012 derived by this model. Linear interpolation is used

in the affordability assessment to determine the estimated percentage of Powys households with incomes below the threshold for affordability of each tenure type. The interpolated percentages of households below given income thresholds are then applied to the Welsh Government’s mid-2012 estimate of households in Powys, see table 10 below, to give estimated numbers of Powys households that could not afford each type of accommodation in 2012.

Figure 11 2012 Powys Household Incomes percentiles percentile 20% 25% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 75% Income £14.4k £16.2k £18.0k £21.2k £23.6k £27.5k £33.5k £35.4k

Source: PCC in-house incomes distribution model

Table 10 mid 2012 estimate of Households in Powys by type Household type Estimate All types 58,638 1 person 18,637 2 person (no children) 20,511 2 person (1 adult, 1 child) 1,884 3 person (no children) 3,647 3 person (2 adults, 1 children) 3,230 3 person (1 adult, 2 children) 836 4 person (no children) 981 4 person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 5,209 4 person (1 adult, 3 children) 274 5+ person (no children) 332 5+ person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 3,001

5+ person (1 adult, 4+ children) 95 Source WG StatsWales mid-year Household Estimates © Crown Copyright

2.35 Para 6.16 of the Local Housing Market Assessment Guide 2006 advises that; ‘A household should be taken as being able to afford ...(to rent a home)… in cases where the rent payable would constitute no more than 25% of their gross household income.’ This approach has consequently been adopted in the affordability assessment of all rent tenures.

2.36 It has also been assumed that for all purchases the affordable mortgage multiplier is 3.5; in other words a household cannot afford a mortgage that is more than 3.5 times the household’s annual income. The annual income threshold is thus calculated as the mortgage divided by 3.5.

Social Rent Affordability

2.37 The table below compares the average rents charged by the local authority and Registered Social Landlords in Powys in 2012-13 for properties with 1 bedroom and with two or more bedrooms5 .

Table 11 – Affordability of Average Social Rents in Powys 2012-13 All Self- All Self- contained with contained with 1 Property Type 2 or more bedroom, bedrooms including bedsits Average weekly rent £77.36 £68.00 Average rent per year £4,023 £3,536 Annual income threshold £16,091 £14,144 Powys (4 x yearly rent) LA % Powys HHs below 25% 15%><20% income threshold in 2012 Est. no. of Powys HHs with 14,500 income below this 8,800><11,700

threshold in 20126 Average weekly rent £76.63 £64.41 Average rent per year £3,985 £3,349

Annual income threshold £15,939 £13,397 Powys (4 x yearly rent) RSLs % Powys HHs below 24% 15%><20% income threshold in 2012 Est. no. of Powys HHs with 14,200 income below this 8,800><11,700

threshold in 20127 Sources: WG StatsWales Social Rents 20128 & PCC Household Incomes Model The table shows that an average one bedroom RSL rented property required an annual income of £13,397 and by deduction an average two bedroom RSL

5 Data n/a at county level for 2 bedroom properties only 6 Rounded to nearest 100 7 Rounded to nearest 100 8 source http://wales.gov.uk/topics/statistics/headlines/housing2012/120726/?lang=en

rented property in Powys in 2012 required an annual household income somewhere between £13,397 and £15,939.

2.38 Using linear interpolation of the incomes model (see paragraph 2.33 above) the assessment thus shows that somewhere between 15% and 20% (i.e. between 8,800 and 11,700) of Powys households would not be able to afford a one bedroom RSL rented property and between 15% and 24% (i.e. between 8,800 and 14,200) of Powys households would not be able to afford a two bedroom RSL rented property.

2.39 Some of these lowest income households may be amongst the 21.4% potentially “asset-rich, income-poor” elderly home owners, see paragraph 2.18 above, or living in rent free accommodation, or homeless, but the remainder are likely to be spending more than the advised 25% of their income on housing costs even if they are in social rented accommodation and in receipt of housing benefit.

2.40 The 2011 census recorded 8,161 (14%) of all Powys households living in social rented accommodation, see Table 4a above. These were divided approximately 2:1 between households renting their accommodation from the Local Authority (5,371 or 9.2% of all households) and households renting from Registered Social Landlords (2,790 or 4.8% of all households).

2.41 The DWP database of Housing Benefit Claimants shows that in April 2011, just after the 2011 census was taken (27/3/2014), there were 7,581 Housing Benefits claimants in Powys, equivalent to 13% of all households, see table 12 below. 5,106 of these were social tenants and 2,475 were private tenants.

Table 12 Housing Benefits Claimants in Powys April 2011 Claimants Housing Type count Equiv. % of 2011 HH Total 7581 13.0% Social tenants: total 5106 8.8% LA tenant 3368 5.8% Registered social landlord tenant 1738 3.0% Private tenants: total 2475 4.2% Source: DWP Stat-Xplore Housing Benefit Claimants data © Crown Copyright

Intermediate Rent Affordability

2.42 Intermediate rent offers a “mid-market rental housing solution and potentially assists them in the outright purchase of their home in the future” (WAG, 2011, para. 2). An intermediate rent is defined as either the Local Housing Allowance or 80% of average private rent, whichever is the lower.

2.43 The table below shows the local housing allowance rates for the three Broad Market Rental Areas (Brecon and Radnor, Neath Port Talbot and North Powys) which cover parts of Powys. The table shows that 29% of households in North Powys and 33% in South Powys (Neath Port Talbot BMRA) could not afford to pay an intermediate rent at full Local Housing Allowance rate for a 2 bedroom property.9

9 source http://wales.gov.uk/topics/housing-and-regeneration/welfare- reform/rentofficers/publications/lha13/?lang=en

Table 13– Local Housing Allowances, Broad Market Rental Areas, Powys 2012/13 Brecon North Neath Port and Powys Talbot BMRA covering part of Powys Radnor weekly Local Housing Allowance £85 £91 £91

Average Annual Rent £4,420 £4,740 £4,740 Annual Income Threshold (4 x annual rent) £17,680 £18,959 £18,959 % Powys HHs below income threshold in 2012 29% 33% 33% Sources: Rent Officers Wales report Local Housing Allowances 2013 © Crown Copyright & PCC Household Incomes Model 10

2.44 The table below shows that 25% of households could not afford an intermediate rent set at 80% of open market rents for a 2 bedroom property in Powys in April 2012. It should be noted that the data on open market rents is gathered by the Council monthly from a web-monitoring exercise. This rental monitoring is therefore based on advertised rents and not the actual agreed/received rents.

Table 20 - Discounted Open Market Rent 2 bedroom properties, Powys 10/4/2012 2 bedroom properties Average Weekly Open Market Rent £97.97 80% Average Weekly Open Market Rent £78.38 80% Average Annual Open Market Rent £4,075.55 Annual Income Threshold (4 x Annual Rent) £16,302 % Powys HHs below Income Threshold in 2012 25% Sources: PCC Rental Monitor, 10/4/2012 & PCC Household Incomes Model

Private Rent Affordability

2.45 The table below shows that 37% of Powys households could not afford the open market rent of a 2 bedroom property in Powys in April 2012.

10source http://wales.gov.uk/topics/housing-and-regeneration/welfare- reform/rentofficers/publications/lha13/?lang=en

Table 15– Open Market Rent 2 bedroom properties, Powys 10/4/2012 2 bedroom properties Average Weekly Open Market Rent £97.97 Average Annual Open Market Rent £5,094.44 annual income threshold (4 x Open Market Rent) £20,378 % Powys HHs below Income Threshold in 2012 37% Sources: PCC Rental Monitor, 10/4/2012 & PCC Household Incomes Model

Home-Buy Affordability

2.46 This assessment assumes that for all purchases the affordable mortgage multiplier is 3.5; in other words a household cannot afford a mortgage that is more than 3.5 times the household’s annual income. The annual income threshold is thus calculated as the mortgage divided by 3.5.

2.47 It is also assumed for a Home-Buy property purchase that there will be a 70/30 shared equity, with a 70% mortgage taken on by the household and a 30 % deposit provided by the Registered Social Landlord.

2.48 The table below shows that 52% of Powys households could not afford a Home Buy purchase of a terraced property. The product is not popular and not commonly offered by housing associations because of its lack of affordability, although it does give the advantage of not having to save for a deposit.

Table 21 – Home-Buy Affordability, Powys Terraced Houses, 2012 Terraced Houses Average Purchase Price in Powys in 2012 £121,732 Home Buy Mortgage (70% of Purchase Price) £85,212 Annual Income Threshold (mortgage divided by 3.5) £24,346 % Powys HHs below Income Threshold in 2012 52% Sources: Land Registry Price Paid dataset, 2012 © Crown Copyright & PCC Household incomes model

Intermediate / Affordable Housing for Sale Affordability

2.49 The price of properties sold as Affordable Housing for Sale is determined by the Powys Unitary Development Plan 2011-2016 Affordable Housing for Local Needs Supplementary Planning Guidance (SPG)11, specifically Sections 5.19 to 5.1.12 on Affordable Housing for Sale, and Appendix 5. The current discount is 31%, It is assumed that the mortgage multiplier is 3.5 and that the typical loan to value ratio on the open market was 80:20 for first time buyers in June 2012, see press release from Council for Mortgage lenders 12/8/201312

2.50 The table below shows that 33% of Powys households could not afford to purchase a terraced property at the Intermediate /Affordable Housing discount of 31% discount on the open market value.

Table 22 – Intermediate Housing Prices, Powys 2012 Terraced Property Open Market Price £120,850 Intermediate Housing Price (31% discount of OM price) £ 83,387 Mortgage (80% of Intermediate Housing Price) £ 66,709 Annual Income Threshold (mortgage divided by 3.5) £19,060 % Powys HHs below Income Threshold in 2012 33% Sources: Land Registry Price Paid dataset, 2012 © Crown Copyright & PCC Household incomes model

Low Cost Market Housing / Starter Homes Affordability

2.51 The assessment defines Low Cost Market Housing / Starter Homes as lower quartile priced open market housing and assumes the typical loan to value ratio on the open market was 80:20 for First Time Buyers in June 2012,

11 http://pstatic.powys.gov.uk/fileadmin/Docs/Planning/AH_SPG_2011_en.pdf 12 http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3620

see press release from Council for Mortgage lenders 12/8/201313 . The usual mortgage multiplier of 3.5 is assumed.

Table 23 – Low Cost Market Housing / Starter Home Prices Powys 2012 Terraced Property Lower Quartile Open Market Price £85,000 Mortgage (80% of Lower Quartile Open Market Price) £ 68,000 Annual Income Threshold (mortgage divided by 3.5) £19,429 % Powys HHs below Income Threshold in 2012 34% Sources: Land Registry Price Paid dataset, 2012 © Crown Copyright & PCC Household incomes model

2.52 The table above shows that 34% of Powys households could not afford a mortgage for a terraced lower quartile priced property / Starter Home in 2012.

Open Market Housing Affordability

2.53 This assessment considers average open market prices paid for properties in Powys during 2012. It assumes a Loan to Value Ratio of 80:20 and a mortgage multiplier of 3.5. Table 24 – Open Market Prices 2012

Terraced Property Open Market Price £120,850 Mortgage (80% of Open Market Price) £96,680 Annual Income Threshold (mortgage divided by 3.5) £27,623 % Powys HHs below Income Threshold in 2012 60% Sources: Land Registry Price Paid dataset, 2012 © Crown Copyright & PCC Household incomes model

2.54 The table above shows that 60% of Powys households could not afford a mortgage on an average priced open market terraced property in 2012.

13 http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3620

Summary of Affordability Assessment Results

Renting Affordability Conclusions (2 bedroom property)  37% of households could not afford private rents in Powys in 2012.  25% could not afford intermediate rents14  Between 15% and 24% of households could not afford social rents.

Buying Affordability Conclusions (terraced property)  60% households could not afford to buy open market housing with a 20% deposit because their household income would not support their mortgage repayments.  52% of households could not afford to buy open market housing through a home-buy scheme with a 30% interest free deposit.  34% of households could not afford to buy lower quartile open market housing.  33% of households could not afford to buy at the Intermediate / Affordable Housing for Sale discount of 31% on the open market price.

Overall Affordability Conclusions  34% could not afford to buy a lower quartile priced terraced property and 37% could not afford an open market rent for a 2 bed property. Therefore 34% of households are in affordable housing need.  25% of households could not afford intermediate rent for a 2 bedroom property. Therefore 25% are in need of social rented accommodation.

14 assumes intermediate rent is the lesser of 80% of private rents or LHA rate for a 2 bed property

Figure 12 shows a summary of the key results from the affordability assessment.

Figure 12 Affordability Assessment Summary

Source: Powys County Council Affordability Assessment

Affordable Housing Need Conclusion 2.54 The following affordable housing need target could be identified from the affordability assessment. However this must be tested for viability:  34% Affordable Housing, comprising: o 25% Social Rented housing, o 9% Intermediate Housing, with . 1% Intermediate / Affordable Housing for Sale . 8% Intermediate Rented.

Figure 13 below shows how housing need is divided between the different categories.

Figure 13: Affordable Housing Need

Source: Powys County Council Affordability Assessment

3. Newly Arising Need from New Households

Powys Population Projections 3.1 Table 20 summarises the latest sources of evidence on the population of Powys 3.2 It should be noted that the population projections show an increase in the population each year due to net in-migration, continuing the trends of the previous decade. In contrast the mid-year estimates from 2011 to 2013 show the first drop in the Powys population for more than three decades. It can be seen in Figure 14 below the population of Powys is following the zero migration projection at present, owing to there being little or no net gain from people moving into the county in those years. 3.3 It is too soon to determine whether or not the inward migration trends of previous decades will return, as they are closely linked to national economy and housing market conditions. For this edition of the LHMA, it was assumed that this is temporary downturn, and that population and household trends in Powys will return to growth in the near future. This assumption will be reviewed for the next edition.

Table 20 – Sources of Evidence on the Population of Powys Year / Data Source Population

2011 Census 132,976

2011 mid-year estimate 133,071

2012 mid-year estimate 132,952

2013 mid-year estimate 132,705

Principle Projection

2011 projected population (2011 based) 133,071

2016 projected population (2011 based) 134,600

2021 projected population (2011 based) 135,897

2026 projected population (2011 based) 136,489

Source: ONS 2011 Census, mid year estimates & WG 2011 based population projections

Figure 14: Powys Population Projections and Mid Year Estimates

Powys MYE and Projections 155000

150000

145000

140000

135000

130000

125000

2015 2034 2036 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2035

2008 Projection 2011 Projection MYE 2008 Lower variant 2008 Higher variant 2008 Zero migration variant 2011 Lower variant 2011 Higher variant 2011 Zero migration variant 2011 Ten year average migration variant (1)

Source: MYE, 2008, 2011 Population Projections, Welsh Government

3.4 In brief, the population is projected to increase in average age, with an increasing number of people aged 90 plus and a decreasing number of people in their early 20s. Further details about age profile and migration trends can be found in the Population & Housing Topic Paper for the Powys Local Development Plan.

3.5 It is estimated from apportionment of the population for each census output area that 17.71% of the Powys population lives in the Brecon Beacons National Park (BBNP). Table 21 shows this breakdown.

Table 21 – WG 2011-based population projections for Powys applied to BBNP within Powys Powys 2011 based 17.71% of Powys Year population population in BBNP projection

Mid 2011 133,071 23,567

Mid 2016 134,600 23,838

Mid 2021 135,897 24,067

Mid 2026 136,489 24,172

Source: Welsh Government 2011-based population projections © Crown Copyright

3.6 The Welsh Government have yet to publish 2011 based population projections for the National Parks, and the latest set, 2008-based, do not tally with the 2011 census estimates. For this edition of the LHMA, it will be assumed that the population of Powys within the BBNP will remain at 17.71% of the Powys population. This will need to be reviewed when 2011-based Park projections are available. The table below shows the Powys population break down by Local Housing Market Area.

Table 25 – 2011 Census Powys Population by Local Housing Market Area 2011 % of Powys Local Housing Market Area Population Population

LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 31,303 23.5%

LHM2 Machynlleth Border 4,275 3.2%

LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 28,201 21.2%

LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 9,945 7.5%

LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 12,371 9.3%

LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 7,035 5.3%

LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 25,731 19.3%

LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 10,210 7.7%

LHM9 Crickhowell Border 3,905 2.9%

POWYS 132,976 100%

Source: ONS 2011 Census table of COA populations - Crown Copyright

Powys Household Projections

3.7 As stated in Para 9.2.2 of Planning Policy Wales (PPW) 2012: “The latest Welsh Government local authority level Household Projections for Wales should form the starting point for assessing housing requirements.” Appendix C contains further information on the latest set of projections (issued in 2014).

3.8 The Welsh Government 2011-based projections started with the mid 2011 estimate of households in Powys being 58,429, almost 3,000 lower than the previous 2008-based projection for 2011 of 61,398 households.

3.9 Table 23 shows a breakdown of the projected change in numbers of households by different household sizes over the Local Housing Market Assessment period (2011 to 2016) and beyond. Table 23 shows that there will be increasing numbers of 1 and 2 person households, reflecting the trend in decreasing

household size due to greatly increased numbers of elderly person households. There will be decreasing numbers of 3 and 4 person households. The total number of households in Powys is projected to increase by 1,848 between 2011 and 2016, and by 4,535 households between 2011 and 2026.

Table 26 - Powys Projected Number of Households over LHMA periods Household Type 2011 2016 2021 2026 Change

1 person 18,431 19,579 20,735 21,675 3,244

2 person (no children) 20,364 21,433 22,240 22,751 2,387

2 person (1 adult, 1 child) 1,850 2,029 2,204 2,381 531

3 person (no children) 3,660 3,684 3,595 3,420 -240

3 person (2 adults, 1 child) 3,261 3,153 3,044 2,934 -327

3 person (1 adult, 2 children) 848 808 792 777 -71

4 person (no children) 987 983 933 854 -133

4 person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 5,283 5,001 4,818 4,715 -567

4 person (1 adult, 3 children) 278 268 270 274 -4

5 + person (no children) 316 402 462 496 180

5 + person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 3,058 2,839 2,680 2,564 -494

5 + person (1 adult, 4 + children) 93 101 112 122 28

Total 58,429 60,277 61,884 62,964 4,535

5 year growth 1,848 1,606 1,081

Average growth per year 370 321 216

Source: WG 2011-based household projections.

3.10 There is insufficient data to provide a household projection for each local housing market area (LHMA), so the growth in each area is estimated by apportionment of the annual Powys growth according to the 2011 census household percentages of Powys households in each LHMA in 2011. These are shown in

table below, and were derived by summing the 2011 count of households in each area’s constituent census output areas.

3.11 These percentages are then applied to the projected growth in Powys households in each of the five year periods to give a forecast of the average annual growth per year in each local housing market, as shown in the table 24.

3.12 The same methodology is used to give a forecast of the average annual growth per year in the area of Powys within the Brecon Beacons National Park, since the latest available projections for the BBNP are 2008-based, and do not tally with the 2011 census. The 2011 census showed 17.74% of Powys households were within the BBNP, and it is assumed that this proportion will remain the same throughout the LHMA period.

Table 27 – Household Projections by Local Housing Market Area 2011-2016

Projected Annual Total 2011 Household Growth by 5 Household Local Housing Market census year period Growth household 2011-2026 % 2011- 2017- 2021- 2016 2020 2026 LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 23.0% 85 74 50 1041 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 3.3% 12 11 7 149 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 21.0% 78 67 45 952 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 7.6% 28 24 16 346 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 9.9% 37 32 21 450 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 5.3% 19 17 11 239 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 19.2% 71 62 42 871 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 7.8% 29 25 17 354 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 2.9% 11 9 6 133 Powys 100% 370 321 216 4535 Powys within the BBNP 17.74% 66 57 38 804 Source: ONS 2011 Census table KS402EW – Tenure by census output areas & WG 2011-based household projections.

3.13 The table below shows the average household size in Powys is projected to steadily decrease over the LHMA period and beyond. Table 28 – Average Household Size in Powys 2011 2016 2021 2026 2011-based projections 2.244 2.199 2.159 2.127 2011 Census 2.25

Mid-year estimate 2.24

Sources: WG 2011-based projections and mid 2011 household estimates, ONS 2011 Census and mid 2011 population estimate

Part of the decrease in average household size can be attributed to a reduction in the proportion of families with children, and the decrease in the number of children within those families with children. Another contributing factor to the reduction in average household size is the increase in the proportion of people living alone, both younger people before marriage, people after a marriage breaks down and older people after a death in a couple.

3.14 The following population and household trends in Powys have been identified:

 The population in Powys (including the BBNP) is projected to rise from 133,071 in 2011 to 134,600 in 2016 according to the Welsh Government 2011-based population projection; an average increase of 306 people per year from 2011 to 2016.  The population in Powys (excluding the BBNP) is projected to rise from 109,504 in 2011 to 110,762 in 2016; an average increase of 252 people per year from 2011 to 2016.  The number of households in Powys (including the BBNP) is projected to rise from 58,429 in 2011 to 60,277 in 2016, an average increase of 370 households per year from 2011 to 2016, with towns experiencing the most growth.

 The number of households in Powys (excluding Powys in the BBNP) is projected to rise from 48,066 in 2011 to 49,587 in 2016, an average increase of 304 households per year from 2011 to 201615.  The 2011 Census recorded 58,345 households and a population of 132,976 in Powys in 2011.  The average household size in Powys is projected to decline from 2.24 in 2011 to 2.13 in 2026 (see Table 25).

15 PCC estimate derived from 2011-based Welsh Government household projections for Powys

4. Affordability for Newly Arising Households

4.1 Not all of the new households identified in the previous chapter will be in housing need. Some will be able to afford open market house prices and rents.

4.2 There is no data available from which to project changes in house-prices, rents and household incomes so it is assumed that the conclusions of the affordability assessment 2012 in chapter 2 will hold for the first five years of the plan period , 2011-2016. It is also assumed that these conclusions will apply equally to each of the local housing market areas, since there is insufficient evidence to the contrary.

4.3 Table 26 below applies the affordability assessment conclusions from chapter 2, to the projected annual household growth over the period 2011 to 2016 in each local housing market from chapter 3, table 24, to estimate the annual newly arising need in each area.

Table 26 – Estimated annual newly arising need for affordable housing, Powys LHMAs, 2011-2016

Annual Need for Intermediate Housing (9%) Need for Household Social Area Growth, Affordable for Sale Intermediate Rented 2011 - 2016 (1%) Rented (8%) (25%) LHM1 85 1 7 21 LHM2 12 0 1 3 LHM3 78 1 6 19 LHM4 28 0 2 7 LHM5 37 0 3 9 LHM6 19 0 2 5 LHM7 71 1 6 18 LHM8 29 0 2 7 LHM9 11 0 1 3 POWYS 370 4 30 92

Source: 2011 Census, WG Household projections, & PCC Affordability Assessment. Note: Columns may not add due to rounding .

5. Existing Households Falling into Need

Homelessness

5.1 To provide some additional context to the assessment, it is useful to understand existing households that may fall into need as well as newly arising households.

5.2 Table 27 below shows the counts of Mortgage and Landlord Possession Orders over the five years from 2008 to 2012. The overall trend was downwards and the total Possession Orders fell by 24% from 282 in 2008 to 183 in 2012

Table 27 – Mortgage & Landlord Possession Orders, Powys, 2008 - 2012 5 year Annual 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average Mortgage Orders 142 100 75 78 73 94 Landlord Orders 140 149 135 135 110 134 Total Orders 282 249 210 213 183 227 Source: Ministry of Justice mortgage and landlord possession statistics © Crown Copyright

5.3 Table 28 below shows the number of households presenting to the local authority as homeless over the five years from 2008/09 to 2012/13. The average number of annual homelessness presentations over the five years for 2008/9-2012/13 was 480. The overall trend was upwards with the count increasing by 45% from 343 in 2008/09 to 496 in 2012/13. Out of the total number of homelessness presentations the greatest need was for one and two bedrooms.

Table 28 –Homelessness Presentations, Powys 2008/09 to 2012/13 5 year Annual 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Average Homelessness 343 318 564 678 496 480 Presentations Source: Powys County Council Housing, Homelessness Presentations

5.4 The following table gives estimates of the annual number of households that may present to the local authority as homeless over the period 2011 to 2016, by local housing market area and by number of bedrooms required. These were calculated by taking the average over 2008/09 to 2012/13 of the number of households presenting as homeless by number of bedrooms required, shown in the bottom line of table 29, and splitting them between local housing market areas in proportion to the 2011 Census percentages of households (see chapter 3, table 22 above).

Table 29 – Estimated Annual Homelessness Presentations by size and Local Housing Market Area 2011 2 3 4+ Area Census 1 Bedroom Bedroom Bedroom HHs % Bedroom s s s Total LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 23.0% 38 55 14 3 110 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 3.3% 6 8 2 0 16 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 21.0% 35 50 13 2 101 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 7.6% 13 18 5 1 37 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 9.9% 17 24 6 1 48 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 5.3% 9 13 3 1 25 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 19.2% 32 46 12 2 92 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 7.8% 13 19 5 1 37 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 2.9% 5 7 2 0 14 POWYS 100.0% 167 239 63 11 480 Sources Powys County Council Housing, Homelessness Presentations 2008/09 to 2012/13 & ONS 2011 Census table KS402EW – Tenure by census output areas

Welfare Reform Changes

5.5 Existing households may also fall into need due to changes arising from the welfare reform. The introduction of the universal credit system will change the way housing benefit is paid. Claimants receiving a variety of different benefit payments, some paid fortnightly, will receive instead a single monthly benefit payment. Current housing benefit claimants will have their benefits paid directly to the housing department which is likely to result in many households no-longer having access to as much disposable income as previously.

5.6 The Welfare Reform Act 2012 was granted Royal Assent on 8th March 2012. This Act introduces property size criteria for housing benefit claimants living in social housing, commonly referred to as ‘the bedroom tax’. From April 2013, housing benefit for tenants in social housing will be related to the claimants’ income, age, size of property and number of occupants. One bedroom will be allowed for:  Each adult couple, any other person aged 16 or over.  Two children of the same sex under the age of 16  Two children under the age of 10 regardless of their sex  A carer if needed for overnight care.

5.7 These changes will mean that a number of social housing tenants claiming housing benefit will be in ‘under-occupation’ of their homes and will accordingly receive a reduced benefit. In many cases, this reduction in benefit will impact on their ability to pay their rent.

5.8 The amount housing benefit will be reduced by is dependent on the number of surplus/spare bedrooms in the property. Claimants should expect a 14% reduction in housing benefit for 1 spare room and 25% reduction for 2 or more spare rooms.

5.9 The welfare reform changes may lead to increased numbers of tenants being in rent arrears. The table below shows there was already a significant increase in

the number of tenants in rent arrears during the 2 years preceding the implementation of the welfare reform changes.

Table 30 –Social Renting Tenants in Rent Arrears, Powys, 2008/09 to 2012/13 Annual 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- Average 09 10 11 12 13 (1) 2008/09- 2012/13 Less than 13 1435 1428 1513 2025 1995 weeks of arrears 1679 13 weeks

Rent Arrears Rent or 189 195 260 134 137 more arrears 183 Total 1624 1623 1773 2159 2132 1862 Source: WG Social Housing Rent Arrears © Crown Copyright

5.10 The table below shows that on average there were 7,518 Housing Benefit claimants over the five years from April 2009 to April 2013. Of these 45% (3,362) were LA tenants, 23% (1,745) were RSL tenants and the remaining 32% (2,411) were private tenants. The Powys County Council Housing section estimated16 that up to 25% of the LA tenants could be affected by the ‘bedroom tax’ and would be likely to fall into rent arrears unless alternative accommodation was found for them.17

16 Internal communications PCC Housing dept. 2011/2012 17 Editors note: DWP housing benefits database shows that in the first month of operation, May 2013, 23% of LA tenants and 21% of RSL tenants claiming housing benefit in Powys had their benefits reduced by the ‘bedroom tax’.

Table 31– Housing Benefits Claimants by tenure, Powys, April 2009 - 2013 annual average tenure Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 April 2009-2013 LA tenant 3,293 3,365 3,368 3,406 3,376 3,362 RSL tenant 1,594 1,720 1,738 1,821 1,851 1,745 Private tenant 2,052 2,325 2,475 2,594 2,609 2,411 Total 6,935 7,414 7,579 7,823 7,841 7,518 Source DWP Stat-Xplore Housing Benefit Claimants database © Crown Copyright

5.11 These changes are likely to create a surge in demand for households seeking to move to smaller accommodation and transfer applications for social housing are expected to increase. Alternatively, households may turn to the private rented sector in search of more suitable accommodation.

5.12 As a result of these changes, the Council may also witness more people choosing to share accommodation and households considering taking in a lodger to cover the reduction and benefit.

5.13 The Council also, therefore, reasonably expects a significant increase in need for 1 and 2 bed-roomed properties over 3 bed-roomed property and family accommodation.

5.14 At this stage it is difficult to forecast the impact of the Welfare Reform over the LHMA period, other than predicting an increased need for smaller dwellings (one and two bedrooms) due to over occupation and risk of people having their benefits reduced. This will need to be examined in future Local Housing Market Assessments.

6. Backlog of Housing Need

6.1 The backlog of housing need will help to realise whether the number of households in need as recognised on the housing registers, are likely to be met through existing stock and what proportion is likely to be met through new build.

Backlog of Social Housing Need

6.2 A snapshot of the number of households, including number of bedrooms and type of need (general/disabled/elderly) waiting on registers across Powys was taken in November 2012 to understand the current social housing need. Powys does not have a Common Housing Register (CHR), although this is something currently being developed by the Housing team. Information was therefore gathered from 9 housing associations in Powys:  Cantref Housing Association  Clwyd Alyn Housing Association  First Choice Housing Association  Gwalia Housing Association  Melin Homes  Mid-Wales Housing Association  Newydd Housing Association  Tai Clwyd Housing Association (now part of Gwrp Cnefin).  Wales & West Housing Association

6.3 There were 2,203 households on the Council’s waiting list in need of social housing and unable to meet their needs in the market (WAG, 2006i, para. 6.40). Tables 32a and 32b show the breakdown of this figure across the local housing markets by number of bedrooms and type of need respectively.

Table 32a Powys LA housing waiting list by size, November 2012 Number of bedrooms area 1 2 3 4+ total LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 256 237 75 7 575 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 46 44 12 3 105 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 223 173 66 15 477 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 52 58 8 2 120 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 109 66 16 1 192 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 28 31 6 0 65 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 196 162 45 6 409 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 84 51 17 2 154 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 58 37 11 0 106 Grand Total 1052 859 256 36 2203 Source: Powys CC housing waiting list snapshot, November 2012 Note: columns may not add due to rounding

Table 32b Powys LA housing waiting list by type, November 2012 Type of need elderly general & area need disabled elderly disabled total LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 368 169 24 14 575 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 67 36 2 0 105 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 312 120 40 5 477 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 73 1 46 0 120 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 132 0 60 0 192 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 36 0 27 2 65 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 272 2 134 1 409 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 88 62 4 0 154 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 60 0 46 0 106 Grand Total 1408 390 383 22 2203 Source: Powys CC housing waiting list snapshot, November 2012 Note: columns may not add due to rounding

6.4 There were 1, 707 households on at least one of the RSL waiting lists and Table 33a and 33b show the breakdown of this figure across the local housing markets by number of bedrooms and type of need respectively.

Table 33a Powys combined RSL housing waiting list by number of bedrooms, November 2012 Number of bedrooms area 1 2 3 4+ u/k total LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 175 101 57 23 0 356 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 29 11 15 6 0 62 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 286 124 56 23 305 793 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 69 26 10 9 0 114 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 76 40 14 2 2 134 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 43 15 6 1 0 64 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 51 32 7 5 1 96 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 27 22 5 0 0 54 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 25 6 0 1 1 33 Powys 781 376 171 69 309 1,707 Source: Powys RSLs housing waiting list snapshot, November 2012 - Note columns may not add due to rounding

Table 33b Powys combined RSL housing waiting list by type of need, November 2012 Type of need general area needs elderly sheltered disability total LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 294 50 5 7 356 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 52 8 0 2 62 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 663 81 35 15 793 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 69 18 26 1 114 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 112 7 11 4 134 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 46 8 9 2 64 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 53 1 42 0 96 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 52 0 2 0 54 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 8 0 25 0 33 Powys 1,349 173 155 30 1,707

6.5 The total combined number of households on the Council’s and RSL’s waiting lists is 3,910. As already noted, separate housing registers are held in Powys, and so there may be double counting between the LA list and the RSLs, and within the combined RSL list. The gross backlog figure must between 2203 and 3910, since it must be at least the number on the LA list (if all RSL applicants were also on LA list) cannot be more than the total of the two lists (if there were no double counting between any of the lists). A middle figure of 3057, the LA count plus 50% of the combined RSL count has been used, to allow for double counting, as shown in tables 34a and 34b below.

Table 34a estimated combined gross backlog of social rented housing, by size; Powys, November 2012 Est. annual backlog, 2011- area 1 2 3 4+ u/k total 2016 LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 344 287 104 18 0 753 151 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 61 50 20 6 0 136 27 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 366 235 94 26 153 874 175 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 87 71 13 6 0 177 35 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 147 86 23 2 1 259 52 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 49 38 9 0 0 97 19 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 221 178 49 9 1 457 91 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 98 62 19 2 0 181 36 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 71 40 11 1 1 123 25 Grand Total 1442 1047 342 71 155 3057 611 Sources: LA and RSLs housing waiting lists snapshot, November 2012, combined by taking LA counts and adding 50% of the RSL counts to allow for double counting Note columns may not add due to rounding

Table 34b estimated combined gross backlog of social rented housing by type; Powys, November 2012 Category of need Est.

annual

backlog,

2011-

2016

area total

GeneralNeed & Elderly Disabled Elderly Sheltered Disabled LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 515 169 49 3 18 753 151 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 93 36 6 0 1 136 27 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 644 120 80 18 12 874 175 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 108 1 55 13 0 177 35 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 188 0 64 6 2 259 52 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 59 0 31 5 3 97 19 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 299 2 134 21 1 457 91 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 114 62 4 1 0 181 36 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 64 0 46 13 0 123 25 Grand Total 2082 390 469 78 37 3057 611 Sources: LA and RSLs housing waiting lists snapshot, November 2012, combined by taking LA counts and adding 50% of the RSL counts to allow for double counting Note columns may not add due to rounding

6.6 The last columns in tables 34a and 34b above show the totals divided by 5 to give an annual backlog of social housing need of 611 over the LHMA period 2011 to 2016. This is the best estimate taken at the time of writing and should be considered against the limitations of the data as discussed below.

6.7 Tables 34a and 34b above show that the local housing market areas LHM1 Welshpool Triangle and Brecon, LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes and LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay have the highest number of households on housing waiting lists. LHM2 Machynlleth Border, LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells and LHM9

Crickhowell Border local housing markets have the least numbers. In all areas there is the most need for one and two bedroom properties.

Limitations

Data Available 6.8 It was not possible to contact and source data for Bromford & Carinthia Housing Association. Their operational area is mostly outside of Powys over the border into Shropshire and Herefordshire, but they do have an operational area (115 units) just inside the border around the Welshpool area of Powys.

6.9 Collecting data from multiple RSLs inevitably led to receiving varying amounts of data, which is recorded in different formats e.g. the type of housing need in some cases differentiated between a need for general housing and sheltered housing18, whilst others differentiated between a need for general, elderly and disabled housing.

6.10 It was not possible to distinguish between households waiting for minor retrofit adaptations and purpose built adapted properties. If this was the case then the potential need for specific housing complex for older people could be made more apparent, particularly given Powys’s ageing population.

6.11 In recent years, many housing associations have stopped operating a housing waiting list. Due to overwhelming numbers of households in needs, RSLs now operate a system whereby a waiting list is open & closed as & when properties become available e.g. when a new development is completed. All those who register a need on this short-term waiting list must be 'ready to move'. This system prevents households turning down homes for no good reason and avoids long waiting lists and disappointment for fewer applicants. Unlike the Council, RSLs do not have the same duties requiring them to house the homeless;

18 Specialised housing for older people formally known as retirement housing (McCarthy & Stone et al. [2012] Housing in Later Life: Planning Ahead For Specialist Housing For Older People)

however, they do follow the Common Housing Register (CHR) code of practice when developing lettings and local allocations policies.

Double Counting 6.12 Whilst some RSLs in Powys do have waiting lists, given the nature of these lists, it is difficult to identify where double counting has taken place. The Council is currently working with RSLs to develop a common housing register to resolve this issue. Whilst some registers do not record a first choice area and households are able to select multiple areas to live and it was possible to account for this by scaling the number of selections by the total number of households on the register, it was not possible to identify households that had registered a need on more than one register.

Households Not in Housing Need 6.13 It should be noted that the Council housing waiting list in particular is likely to overestimate housing need for a number of reasons. Some applicants who have registered a need for housing have no immediate intention of moving and use the register as an insurance policy to voice housing aspirations, not actual need. This has been confirmed by work being undertaken to prepare the CHR.

6.14 Powys County Council and Housing Association partners in Newtown (Mid Wales Housing Association [HA], Newydd HA and Wales and West HA) have been undertaking work with the intention of developing a Common Allocations Scheme (CAS). The first phase of this work has involved collecting evidence on the accuracy and effectiveness of the current waiting lists in identifying need. Initial indications are that currently a significant proportion of people register for housing “just in case”. Each organisation has examples of people who continue to remain registered for housing for years. We are also aware that except for Wales and West HA none of the registered social landlords ask applicants when they want re-housing. Each application is dealt with on the basis that they want

housing straight away. The Council is aware that other local authorities and RSLs do not ask what now appears to be such an obvious question.

Case Study The Council has one person who has been registered for over 30 years. She is an 85 year old lady living in a housing association maisonette. She is extremely happy in her current accommodation, she has good neighbours and the property is located close to the town centre. She registered for re-housing as she thought that when her health deteriorates she would have to move to a 2 bed bungalow as she couldn’t manage with the stairs in the maisonette. We have recorded this person’s needs for 30 years and she has responded to every 6 monthly reviews. Perhaps the appropriate response to this person’s situation would have been to advise her that she could be eligible for a stair lift instead of registering her housing need application?

6.15 The Council with its partners in Newtown will be piloting a new way of considering requests for housing. This will involve considering each person’s circumstances in detail and providing the housing options for Newtown which will include all options including the private sector. The Council will record the advice and assistance given and record the outcomes and effectiveness. The Council will also be contacting people on waiting lists in Newtown, removing duplicate applicants and actually ascertaining whether people registered have a housing need.

6.16 Any future review of the LHMA for Powys, should therefore take account of this new information once complete, which will help to provide a more accurate picture of the housing need.

Backlog of Intermediate Housing Need

6.17 Intermediate housing is “where prices or rents are above those of social rented housing but below market housing prices or rents” (WAG, 2006ii, p. 19) and it

comprises intermediate rent, Low Cost Home Ownership (LCHO), shared equity/ownership . Powys do not hold a separate register to specifically record the need for such housing, although it is understood that almost all households are looking to rent on the Council waiting list and there is only have one person who has registered an interest on the Council’s waiting list in buying a three bed property in Caersws in LHM3 Newtown, with an income of £20,001 - £25,000.

6.18 It was not possible to access household income and savings data as this is not always recorded. Part of the recommendations of this assessment will be to include this information, once available, in future LHMAs so that household affordability is able to be determined e.g. to decide if Low Cost Home Ownership or intermediate rent is possible for households. For this assessment some affordability data was accessed, not for existing households, but for projected newly arising households (presented in chapter 4) using average incomes in Powys, average house prices and rental values to estimate the percentage of households that would be able to afford a mortgage or intermediate rent in each of the local housing market areas in Powys. Another similar assessment has been undertaken looking more generally at affordability across the County as a whole, an average of what all households across Powys can afford e.g. overall local housing market characteristics as presented in chapter 2.

7. Affordable Housing Supply

7.1 Affordable housing in Powys comprises social rented accommodation and intermediate accommodation (intermediate rented and affordable housing for sale).

Social Rented Housing 7.2 To project the annual supply of social rented housing over the LHMA period, the yearly average of social lets from 2009 to 2012 was used as an estimate of the annual relets, and added to the committed number of social housing units per year amongst RSLs and the local authority.

7.3 The tables below show the number of lets in each local housing market area by the local authority averaged over the four years from 2009 to 2012, firstly by number of bedrooms, and then by type of need catered for.

Table 35 yearly average LA lets, by size & LHM areas, 2009 - 2012 number of bedrooms area 1 2 3 4 total LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 20 47 16 0 83 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 7 6 5 0 17 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 77 56 36 2 171 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 6 10 10 0 26 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 6 31 17 0 55 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 0 6 5 0 11 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 22 22 25 2 71 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 14 58 12 1 84 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 4 2 0 0 6 Grand Total 155 237 125 6 522 Source: PCC Housing database Columns may not add due to rounding

7.4 The table below shows the number of lets by registered social landlords as listed in the previous chapter) by Local Housing Market and number of bedrooms, averaged over the four years from 2009 to 2012. 67

Table 36 yearly average of RSL lets, by size & LHM areas, 2009 - 2012 Number of bedrooms 1 2 3 4+ u/k Total LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 26 16 21 4 10 75 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 7 4 2 1 0 13 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 33 31 22 4 0 90 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 6 10 4 1 0 21 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 18 29 8 0 0 55 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 5 6 3 0 0 13 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 15 21 9 1 0 45 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 7 4 1 1 0 12 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 6 2 0 1 0 9 u/k 0 0 0 0 3 3 Total 120 123 69 11 13 336 Source: RSL databases, collated by Powys CC. Columns may not add due to rounding

7.5 Adding the LA lets and RSL lets together, gives a yearly average of 858 social lets, see table below.

Table 37– yearly average of social lets, by size & LHM areas, 2009- 2012 Number of bedrooms 1 2 3 4+ total LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 45 63 37 4 158* LHM2 Machynlleth Border 13 10 6 1 30 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 110 87 58 6 261 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 12 20 14 1 47 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 24 60 25 1 110 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 5 12 8 0 24 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 36 43 34 3 115 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 20 62 13 1 96 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 10 4 1 1 15 Grand Total 275 360 194 17 858* Sources: PCC Housing database & RSL databases, collated by Powys CC Columns may not add due to rounding, * Total includes 10 properties of unknown size in LHM1 and 3 properties of unknown size and location

7.6 Surplus stock adjustment has not been made as information is not known, so there may be properties that are empty long term, due to be demolished or taken out of management that could reduce this lettings figure.

Social Rent Turnover 7.7 Turnover or churn, i.e. the rate of re-letting per year, is also important in understanding the social rented market. The table below shows the existing social rented stock as audited in December 2012.

Table 38 existing social rented stock, Powys, December 2012 bedrooms 1 2 3 4+ total LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 349 683 615 41 1688 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 59 115 108 8 290 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 533 840 857 83 2313 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 88 182 197 10 477 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 176 340 251 16 783 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 47 136 103 5 291 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 337 459 677 49 1522 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 144 405 234 21 804 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 74 87 71 5 237 Grand Total 1807 3247 3113 238 8405 Source: Powys County Council and RSLs stock audit, December 2012

7.8 The annual turnover on social rented property is calculated as

Turnover rate = Projected Social Lets per year19 / Existing Stock 20

Table 39 below shows that the overall turnover of social rented property in Powys is 10.2% per year; however, turnover in smaller properties tends to be higher21,

19 Projected relets per year estimated from average annual lets excluding transfers 20 Existing stock with exclusion of long term vacancies and properties earmarked for demolition 21 CAVEAT These rates for categories of low stock should be treated with caution : a letting of 1additional unit increases the turnover rate by more in a group where the overall stock is lower 69

the highest being in LHM2 Machynlleth & border, 1 bedroom accommodation, at 22%.

Table 39 – projected turnover rates for social rented housing, Powys 2011-2016 bedrooms 1 2 3 4+ Total LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 13.0% 9.2% 6.0% 8.5% 9.3%* LHM2 Machynlleth Border 22.0% 8.9% 5.6% 12.5% 10.4% LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 20.6% 10.4% 6.8% 7.2% 11.3% LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 13.4% 11.0% 7.2% 10.0% 9.9% LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 13.8% 17.7% 9.8% 3.1% 14.0% LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 10.6% 8.5% 7.3% 5.0% 8.3% LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 10.8% 9.3% 5.0% 5.1% 7.6% LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 14.1% 15.2% 5.3% 6.0% 11.9% LHM9 Crickhowell Border 12.8% 4.3% 0.7% 15.0% 6.1% Total 15.2% 11.1% 6.2% 7.0% 10.2%* Source: derived from tables 37 and 38 above * Total includes 10 properties of unknown size in LHM1 and 3 properties of unknown size and location

7.9 Following the advice given in the original “Getting Started with your Housing Market Assessment, A Step by Step Guide”, WLGA March 201222, these turnover rates will be used in chapter 8 in the calculation of net shortfall of general needs social housing as follows;

Net social rented units shortfall = Gross social units shortfall / (1 + turnover rate)

Example from the Step by Step Guide: page 23 If annual lets = 80, and existing stock = 300, turnover rate = 0.27 If the gross shortfall is 58, the net shortfall is 58 / (1+0.27) = 46

22 NB. This formula was altered in the later edition of the start-up guide, March 2014 to Net shortfall = gross shortfall * (1-turnover rate) But we have used the earlier version which is more intuitively obvious. 70

Committed Supply of Affordable Housing 7.10 This section assesses the known committed supply of affordable housing over the five year period of the LHMA. To set the context, the table below gives the overall number of affordable housing units granted planning permission and the number delivered over 2007/08 to 2011/12, and shows that while an average of 54 a year were granted planning permission; only 20 a year were delivered.

Table 40 Affordable Housing through Planning Obligations / Rural Exception Sites Powys 2007/08 to 2011/12 Granted Granted planning planning permission permission Delivered Delivered New New New New affordable affordable affordable affordable housing housing housing housing units units units units provided provided provided provided on through on rural through rural planning exception planning exception obligations sites . obligations sites . 2007 -08 89 4 93 7 4 11 2008-09 8 0 8 14 0 14 2009-10 31 0 31 52 0 52 2010-11 75 0 75 15 0 15 2011-12 62 0 62 8 0 8 5 year Average 53 1 54 19 1 20 Source: WG Provision of affordable housing through planning obligations and on rural exception sites, © Crown Copyright 23

7.11 The table below shows that the total committed supply of social housing units expected to come forward from 2012-2015 was 272 units in total across the county, with an average commitment of 91 units per year. These counts were derived from the Social Housing Grant Programme Delivery Plan which provides information on developments to come forward with grant funding over the next three years from the RSLs.

Table 41 – Annual Committed Supply of Social Housing, 2012-2014 commitments average commitments Local Housing Market Area 2012 to 2014 per year LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 77 26 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 0 0 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 26 9 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 48 16 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 1 0 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 12 4 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 47 16 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 47 16 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 14 5 Grand Total 272 91 Source: Powys Social Housing Grant Programme Delivery Plan

Summary of Social Housing Supply 7.12 The average annual social lets (table 37) added to the average annual committed supply of social housing units (Table 41 above) gives an average annual supply of 948 social housing units as below: Table 42 – Combined Annual Average Lets & Supply committed area social lets supply total LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 158 26 183 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 30 0 30 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 261 9 269 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 47 16 63 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 110 0 110 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 24 4 28 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 115 16 131 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 96 16 111 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 15 5 19 unknown 3 3 Grand Total 858 91 948 Source: Powys County Council and RSLs

Empty Homes

7.13 The number of homes that are brought back into use each year could help to ease pressure on housing need. It is hard to predict the exact number due to varying amounts of finance available, but as a rough estimate it could be in the range of 10-40 properties.

7.14 The figures stated in this Chapter should be used as a guide and not taken as definite housing targets.

Limitations

7.15 The committed supply data collected is only available in terms of number of units and not number of bedrooms so there can only be a comparison between the overall grand totals of average annual lets in each local housing market with overall number of units for committed supply in each local housing market.

7.16 The need for e.g. general/sheltered/adapted housing/LCHO is not specified as all the committed programme is for general needs because there are requirements that homes are built to an accessible standard and therefore, unless specific need is established, they are not specifically for disabled but can be adapted. Also elderly is now accommodated in the “home for life” concept and it is the property size that guides this.

8. Net Annual Need for Affordable Housing 2011-2016

Newly Arising Need Social rent units = 92

+ Existing Households Falling into Need

Annual homelessness presentations = 480

+ Backlog of Housing Need 1/5th of households on waiting list = 611 -

Supply of Affordable Housing

Annual social lets = 858

Committed supply = 91

Total supply = 948 = Shortfall of Social housing

gross shortfall of social lets = 235

divided by 110.2% (1+ turnover)

Net shortfall of social lets = 214

+ Newly arising intermediate need

Intermediate for rent units = 30

Intermediate for sale units = 4

= Total Annual Need over LHMA period 2011-2016 for Powys 247 Affordable Units (after rounding) of which 94 units are within the BBNP 74

8.1 The table below gives the breakdown of need for affordable housing per year for Powys and the nine Local Housing Markets, calculated by the method shown above. The combined figures for the LHM7 and LHM9 areas are also shown, as a proxy for Powys with the Brecon Beacons National Park, since none of the social housing data was available for this area.

8.2 An estimated 247 affordable housing units will need to be made available on an annual basis to meet the projected increase in household numbers, as well as existing need, over a 5 year period of the plan for Powys. This comprises 214 social rented, 30 intermediate rented and 4 intermediate / affordable for sale units (after rounding to nearest 1).

8.3 It should be noted that LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border and LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader have a projected annual surpluses of 27 and 1 social rented units respectively (shown as negative need), owing to an excess of lets over need. The Powys total is based on the assumption that these surpluses will contribute to reducing the need in adjoining areas. If that were not the case the Powys total need for social rented would increase by 28 units, and the surplus units would eventually become long term vacancies. Table 43 summary of affordable housing need by area all net social intermediate intermediate affordable Area rented rented for sale housing LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 90 7 1 98 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 14 1 0 15 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 23 6 1 30 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 15 2 0 17 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader -1 3 0 2 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 20 2 0 21 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 66 6 1 72 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border -27 2 0 -24 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 21 1 0 22 POWYS 214 30 4 247 LHM7 +LHM9 (proxy for BBNP) 86 7 1 94 Note: Rows and columns may not add, due to rounding. Negative shortfalls represent over- supply

The full calculations behind the above table are given in Summary Tables 44 a-d below.

Summary Table 44a SOCIAL HOUSING - ANNUAL NEED current existing need , newly HH falling backlog newly arising into need, on arising need (25% becoming waiting Total Area HH of new HH) homeless list need LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 85 21 110 151 282 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 12 3 16 27 46 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 78 19 101 175 295 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 28 7 37 35 79 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 37 9 48 52 109 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 19 5 25 19 50 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 71 18 92 91 201 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 29 7 37 36 81 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 11 3 14 25 41 POWYS 370 92 480 611 1184

LHM7 +LHM9 (proxy for BBNP) 82 21 106 116 243 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Note: Rows and columns may not add, due to rounding. Summary Table 44b SOCIAL HOUSING - ANNUAL SUPPLY Area projected relets committed supply Total supply LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 158 26 183 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 30 0 30 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 261 9 269 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 47 16 63 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 110 0 110 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 24 4 28 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 115 16 131 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 96 16 111 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 15 5 19 POWYS 858 91 948 LHM7 +LHM9 (proxy for BBNP) 130 20 150 Chapter 7 Chapter 7 Note: Rows and columns may not add, due to rounding.

Summary Table 44c SOCIAL HOUSING - ANNUAL NET NEED total total gross projected net Area need supply shortfall turnover need LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 282 183 99 9.3% 90 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 46 30 16 10.4% 14 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 295 269 25 11.3% 23 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 79 63 16 9.9% 15 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 109 110 -1 14.0% -1 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 50 28 21 8.3% 20 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 201 131 70 7.6% 66 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 81 111 -30 11.9% -27 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 41 19 22 6.1% 21 POWYS 1184 948 235 10.2% 214

LHM7 +LHM9 (proxy for BBNP) 243 150 93 7.2% 86 Table A Table B Chapter 7 Note: Rows and columns may not add, due to rounding. Negative shortfalls represent over-supply Summary Table 44d INTERMEDIATE HOUSING - NEED Newly Newly arising arising need need for int. newly for int. rent housing for arising (8% of new sale (1% of total Area HH HH) new HH) need LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 85 7 1 8 LHM2 Machynlleth Border 12 1 0 1 LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 78 6 1 7 LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 28 2 0 3 LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rhayader 37 3 0 3 LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 19 2 0 2 LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 71 6 1 6 LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 29 2 0 3 LHM9 Crickhowell Border 11 1 0 1 POWYS 370 30 4 33

LHM7 +LHM9 (proxy for BBNP) 82 7 1 7 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 4 Note: Rows and columns may not add, due to rounding.

9. Local Housing Needs Survey 9.1 In addition to the research above, Local Housing Needs Surveys (LHNSs) have been carried out. A household is considered in 'housing need' if they expect to need to move to more suitable accommodation within the next five years. LHNSs are therefore normally valid for 5 years. The table below collates results of all LHNSs undertaken in Powys to date.

Table 45 – Local Housing Needs Survey Results No. Tenure Size / No. Bedrooms households in need (those who expect to move in LHMA Response next 5 Shire Community Date Rate years) Rent Buy 1 2 3 4 5+

LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Brec Builth Wells Wells 2011 33% 51 13 38 3 19 19 10 0

Llanwrtyd LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Brec Wells Wells 2005 25% 26 6 12 3 15 8 1 0

Llanwrtyd LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Brec Wells Wells 2011 31% 16 16 10 0 5 7 2 0

Mont Banwy LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 2007 33% 13 16 14 2 7 4 0 0

Bettws LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes Mont Cedewain 2012 43% 25

Mont Caersws LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 2006 50% 11 1 20 21 7 0

Mont Castle LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 2004 39% 28

Mont Ceinws LHM2 Machynlleth Border 2005 50% 26

LHM2 Machynlleth Border Unknown Cemmaes & (pre Mont Glantwymwyn 2007) 16% 15

No. Tenure Size / No. Bedrooms households in need (those who expect to move in LHMA Response next 5 Shire Community Date Rate years) Rent Buy 1 2 3 4 5+

Bausley, LHM1 Welshpool Triangle Crewe Green Mont & Criggion 2006 33.60% 11 0 9 1 1 2 1 0

Mont Dwyriw LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 2007 38% 17 11 27 1 6 8 2 0

Forden with LHM1 Welshpool Triangle Leighton and Mont Trelystan 2012 42% 86

Mont Glantwymwyn LHM2 Machynlleth Border 2010 26% 28 19 21

Kerry (Sarn LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes Mont only) 2011 49% 26

Mont Llandinam LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 2004 27% 33 11 25

Llanerfyl / LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Llandrindod Rhayader Mont Wells 2007 34% 168 118 190 19 70 57 18 2

Mont Llanfair LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 2007 30% 44 15 84 1 11 18 10 0

Mont Llanfechain LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 2012 49% 26-30

Mont Llanfyllin LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 2006 22% 41

No. Tenure Size / No. Bedrooms households in need (those who expect to move in LHMA Response next 5 Shire Community Date Rate years) Rent Buy 1 2 3 4 5+

Mont Llangedwyn LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 2005 26% 11 2 5 0 3 5 4 0

Mont Llangyniew LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 2007 46% 14 13 22 2 6 4 0 0

Mont Llangynog LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 2011 48% 17 25 12 5 5 4 2 0

Mont Llanidloes LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 2006 125 65 164 7 47 42 20 0

Mont Manafon LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 2007 40% 18 19 27 1 6 9 1 0

Mont Meifod LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 2011 30% 42

Mont Newtown LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 2006 40% 17 0 7 2 2 2

Penybont LHM1 Welshpool Triangle Mont Fawr 2011 48% 21 10 20 2 7 11 1 0

LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rad Llandrindod Rhayader 2007 168 12 41 19 70 58 18 1

LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & Rad Pantydwr Rhayader 2006 38% 15 5 12 2 6 7 2 0

LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Rad New Radnor Border 2011 45% 13 6 17

Rad LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne 2011 37.40% 80 48 32 Presteigne & 82

No. Tenure Size / No. Bedrooms households in need (those who expect to move in LHMA Response next 5 Shire Community Date Rate years) Rent Buy 1 2 3 4 5+

Norton Border

Llanfihangel LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay Rad Rhydithon 2011 43.60% 8

Total 1035 430 782 69 311 286 101 5

Source Powys County Council Local Housing Needs Survey Results

9.2 There will be some overlap between need identified in waiting lists and LHNSs. However, LHNSs are more likely to identify un-registered needs and intermediate housing needs. The majority of respondents expressed a wish to buy rather than rent.

9.3 Additionally work by rural housing enablers in Wales looked at using the LHNSs to help “predict housing need across rural areas in Wales”, in collaboration with the Local Government Data Unit Wales. In 2013 a technical note was published to capture this information. A sample of 130 housing need surveys were undertaken between 2006-2012 across rural communities in Wales and out of the surveyed communities in Powys (15,293 people), 447 people were identified as being in housing need, calculated as about 29 people in housing need per 1,000 population. A calculation was made for un-surveyed communities (98,934 people); 2,892 people were identified as being in housing need, an overall rural housing need of 3,339. The technical note includes a range of confidence intervals providing a range of values indicating 95% confidence that the true value of housing need is within the range; for Powys the upper rural housing need is 3,450 and the lower is 3,227.

10. Gypsy Traveller Accommodation Needs Assessment 10.1 The Council is in the process of updating the assessment of need published in January 2008 in order to provide an accurate and full picture of Gypsy & Travellers accommodation needs in Powys. Refer to Powys GTAA Update 2014.

11. Conclusions & Recommendations

11.1 Overall Need for additional Affordable Housing in Powys over the period 2011 to 2016 = 1,234 affordable dwellings.

Annual Need for additional Affordable Housing in Powys over the period 2011 to 2016 = 247 affordable dwellings comprising; 214 Social rent units, 30 Intermediate rent units, 4 Intermediate / Affordable Housing for Sale units (all figures rounded to nearest 1).

The need for additional Affordable Housing in Brecon Beacons National Park within Powys over the period 2011 to 2016 = 469 affordable dwellings (94 per annum).

It is anticipated that between 20 and 25 empty dwellings are likely to be brought back into use annually, helping to reduce the overall dwelling requirement.

11.2 The Housing Market: - in Powys 2012 the average house price was just over £170,000 and average weekly rent for a two-bedroom property was £98 (April 2012). Some adjoining authority LHMAs indicated cross-boundary relationships with Powys housing markets such as travel to work patterns. However it was not possible to identify specific cross-boundary issues because of the different methodologies and timescales used by other local authorities.

11.3 Household and Population Trends:  Household size decreasing.  One and two person households increasing owing to the ageing population.  Increasing need for affordable housing compared to open market housing.

 Reduced demand for three and four bedroom homes, possibly because there are fewer families migrating into the county.  Ageing population, increasing the need for elderly person’s accommodation  Fewer young adults, owing to the large net loss of the 18 to 19 year olds leaving the county to go to university, combined with the low wage economy which does not attract sufficient young adult in-movers.

11.4 Need for Specific Accommodation: Gypsy Traveller Accommodation Needs Assessment - 11.5 See GTAA Update 2014.

Specialist Housing for Older People - 11.6 As evidenced in the assessment Powys has an ageing population and a great need to provide appropriate homes for the elderly. Such housing may include sheltered housing/retirement accommodation/residential care homes, helping to release housing for younger generations.

First Time Buyers 11.7 As alluded to above with a likely fall in the number of young adults in their 20s and 30s, it is therefore more important than ever that there are affordable homes available to enable them to stay in their home areas and also attract other young families to the County. Whilst housing is important, it is not the solution alone; jobs and wages also have a key role to play here.

Recommendations

 It is recommended the figures of 1,234 additional affordable dwellings for 2011-2016 in Powys of 469 in Powys within the Brecon Beacons National Park are used as guide figures. (See chapter 8).

 It is recommended that affordable housing for social renting should form between 25 and 60% of all additional dwellings in Powys over the next five years. (See Appendix C).

 It is recommended that intermediate housing options as detailed in Figure 10, be encouraged for at least 9% of additional dwellings in Powys over the next five years, with 8% being Intermediate Rented and 1% being Affordable Housing for Sale.

 Identifying the locations of the 1,422 empty properties (see Table 7) will be a key exercise for Powys County Council, in order to help tackle the need for additional dwellings within identified local housing market areas.

 It is recommended that dwellings for elderly households should consist of bungalows or flats with lift access. Powys County Council should also consider supported/sheltered schemes in future strategic/planning decisions as an alternative option.

 It is recommended that the provision of current Gypsy and Traveller sites and pitches are reviewed to accommodate the need identified in Chapter 10.

 It is recommended that a full review of the LHMA should be undertaken in 2016 and should include the  Evidence of impact of Welfare Reform

 Data from the Common Housing Register once set up to provide a more accurate picture of the number of households on waiting lists and a tailored understanding of specific needs to ensure better provision for needs.  Household income and savings data once recorded on the register, to gain a more accurate understanding of the potential for Low Cost Home Ownership and intermediate rent in the County.  Welsh Government 2011-based population and household projections for the Brecon Beacons National Park, and for the ‘residual area’ of Powys excluding the BBNP, when they are available.

Bibliography i Cardiff: Welsh Government.

Local Government Data Unit – Wales (2012) Local Housing Market Assessment Training Manual Calculating New Housing Need. Cardiff: Welsh Government.

Local Government Data Unit – Wales (2013) Local Housing Market Assessment Training Manual Bringing it all Together. Cardiff: Welsh Government.

Local Government Data Unit – Wales (2013) Predicting Housing Need Across Rural Areas in Wales – technical note. Cardiff. Welsh Government.

WAG [Welsh Assembly Government] (2006i) Local Housing Market Assessment Guide. Cardiff: WAG

WAG [Welsh Assembly Government] (2006ii) Technical Advice Note 2: Planning and Affordable Housing. Cardiff: WAG

WAG [Welsh Assembly Government]. 2011. Rent First – Intermediate rent – Final Guidance. Cardiff: WAG.

Welsh Government. (2011) Social Landlords’ Performance in Achieving the Welsh Housing Quality Standard (Revised). Cardiff: Welsh Government

Welsh Government and Welsh Local Government Association (2012) Getting Started With Your Local Housing Market Assessment A Step by Step Guide.

Appendix A – Adjoining Authorities Local Housing Market Assessments The following cross-border markets have been researched:

 Ystradgynlais LHM – Neath Port Talbot  Machynlleth LHM – South Gwynedd/Ceredigion  Crickhowell LHM – Abergavenny, Monmouthshire & Blaenau Gwent  Welshpool LHM – Oswestry, Shropshire  Knighton & Presteigne LHM – Shropshire & Herefordshire

This research involved a desk top exercise to summarise the results of each adjoining authority LHMA, update stage of preparation if necessary and provide a description of what is in each neighbouring area, identifying common features between areas.

Note outcome of meeting with the Brecon Beacons National Park Authority (BBNPA) re: LHMs sharing the Park area. (Brecon, Talgarth & Hay LHM, the Crickhowell LHM, and the Ystradgynlais LHM).

Ceredigion Local Housing Market Assessment 2011  Ceredigion has two housing markets, Aberystwyth and Lampeter adjoining Powys and Cardigan. The greatest requirement was found to be for two and three bed dwellings. Overall, the 2008 updated Opinion Research Services (ORS) housing market model identifies an overall five-year requirement for 2,129 additional dwellings, including 1,445 additional market units, 279 intermediate affordable housing units and 405 social rented homes.

There is no discussion of any cross border relationship with Powys. Figure 15 – Housing Market Areas in Ceredigion

Source: Ceredigion County Council (Figure 1 from the LHMA)

Carmarthenshire Local Housing Market Assessment 2009 Annual Review  60% of housing demand across Carmarthenshire was for one bed properties. A shortage of four plus bed homes, one and two beds and a fall in the number of three bedroom homes becoming available, was also highlighted.  There are no identified housing market links with Carmarthenshire. No map of local housing market areas is published in the Carmarthenshire LHMA document.

Western Bay Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2012  Neath Port Talbot – report expected in early spring 2013 – (Claire Jones - [email protected]). Will be called Western Bay LHMA (NPT and City & County of Swansea).  Neath Port Talbot’s Local Housing Strategy 2007-2012 highlights that travel to work and migration patterns are directed towards Swansea, Bridgend and Carmarthenshire. Figure 16 – Neath Port Talbot Local Development Plan Spatial Areas

Source: Neath Port Talbot Local Development Plan

Rhondda Cynon Taff County Borough Council Local Housing Market Assessment 2012

 The data was presented using the twelve grouped sub market housing areas as identified in the figure below. Travel to work patterns reveal that whilst a large percentage of the residents surveyed in Rhondda Cynon Taff (RCT) lived and worked within the local authority, there was some cross over into Powys from travel to work patterns, although there was a stronger pull to Cardiff as the RCT County is seen as a commuter belt.

 There was found to be an ageing population in RCT with just over half of the projected households expected to be single persons or couples aged over 60. A great need for LCHO and a small need for intermediate rented units was identified (previously unknown), indicating that more households are unable to afford to buy a house or rent in the private sector. Figure 17 – Rhondda Cynon Taff Grouped Sub Market Areas

Source: Rhondda Cynon Taff LHMA 2012

Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council Housing Market Assessment 2010  The following figure shows the housing sub-market areas within the Merthyr Tydfil County. Powys adjoins the Merthyr Tydfil housing sub-market area.

Figure 18 – Merthyr CBC Housing Sub-Market Areas

Source: Merthyr Tydfil LHMA 2010

 There are no references to any relationships or patterns of work and home between Powys and the Merthyr Tydfil County.

 The assessment reported an increase in the numbers registered for rented accommodation on housing registers, mainly coming from single people. Rents in the Merthyr Tydfil housing submarket area had reduced in the last year from £450 per calendar month (pcm) to £400 pcm for an average 3 bedroom terraced house and from around £400 pcm to £385 pcm for a two bedroom terraced house. A growing demand for intermediate housing to rent was also found.

Blaenau Gwent Local Housing Market Assessment Update 2012  It was found that the requirement for social rent has risen sharply, mainly due to right to buy sales being added back into the social housing requirement. The new supply of two Extra Care schemes in Brynmawr and Ebbw Vale is highlighted, plus there is work currently going on to develop services for older people within the Tredegar area in line with the living independently in Blaenau Gwent strategy. This could be attractive to older people currently living near these areas around the south/southeast border of Powys.  The previous assessment published in 2007 found that travel to work patterns cross over between Powys and the Blaenau Gwent, including people travelling to work to Blaenau Gwent and vice versa, highlighting the relationship between home and work. As the 2012 assessment did not include a map of housing market areas, the four housing market areas identified in the 2007 assessment are shown below: Figure 19 – Blaenau Gwent Functional Housing Market Areas Source: UK Census of Population 2001 (Figure 5 from 2007 Blaenau Gwent LHMA)

Newport, Torfaen & Monmouthshire Local Housing Market Assessment Update 2010, Torfaen Report  The analysis found seven housing sub-market areas, as shown in the figure below. Abergavenny Housing Market in Monmouthshire crosses over into Powys, forming the local housing market 9 (the Crickhowell border) as identified in this Powys LHMA update. The original Newport, Torfaen and Monmouthshire assessment (published 2007) found that Abergavenny is a relatively prosperous housing market, with a high share of its housing being detached, to some extent reflecting the high share of its

population in the 65+ years category. The assessment also identified a net migration from Monmouthshire, Newport and Torfaen into Powys of 100 persons from 2000- 2005. Figure 20 – Newport, Torfaen and Monmouthshire Housing Market Areas

Source: UK Census of Population 2001 (Figure 1 from the Torfaen report)

 In the 2010 update a need for one and two bed dwellings (market and social rented) as well as four beds in the market sector was identified overall for Newport, Torfaen and Monmouthshire. A surplus of three bed dwellings was predicted for all areas, indicating an under occupation at the time of the assessment.

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West Midlands Strategic Housing Market Assessment, West Housing Market Area, (Shropshire & Herefordshire), June 2008 Figure 21– West Midlands Housing Market Areas

Source: West Midlands West Housing Market Area Assessment 2008

 As part of the West Midlands housing market area assessment, both Herefordshire Council and Shropshire Council undertook a joint assessment. Shropshire & Herefordshire are combined in what is described as the ‘West’ Housing Market Area which borders Powys.

 There are a number of settlements situated in this border area, in particular Knighton & Presteigne where the County boundary does not necessarily have an impact on the housing market. Local residents frequently cross the border for employment and retail opportunities and possess close links with settlements such as Kington in Herefordshire. Equally, settlements North West of Welshpool have close ties towards the larger Shropshire settlements of Oswestry and Shrewsbury.

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 The West Market area covers a substantial geographical area and it is likely that there are sub-markets within this area, for example in the major towns such as Shrewsbury & Hereford where the market will look & function differently to the more rural parts of Shropshire & Herefordshire where there market may have more similarities to the rural eastern parts of Powys. However, the west market area is divided into sub-markets by district boundaries.

 The West Midlands HMA describes the West Housing Market area’s demographic & economic context as follows:

 The West Housing Market Area with a total population of around 458,033 is home to only 9% of the West Midlands region population (para 5).  In terms of migration flows (para 9): o North Shropshire gains population through migration primarily from neighbouring districts north, south east and west o Oswestry gains population from its immediate neighbours in Shropshire and Wales o Shrewsbury & Atcham has the lowest net population gain from migration in the West Housing Market Area and it displays the strongest relationships to other West Housing Market Area districts o South Shropshire gains population from across the West Midlands and from Shrewsbury & Atcham and Herefordshire o Herefordshire has a highly dispersed pattern of in-migration, attracting 50% of its population from 30 English and Welsh districts and it has stronger ties to Gloucestershire than to Shropshire.

 Whilst the assessment context above refers to Welsh districts and not Powys specifically, Figure 2-7 shows outmigration from the west area districts is highest to Welsh authorities, principally Powys.

 Other features of the west housing market area described include:

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 High levels of owner occupation & aging population, smaller household size, small BME population – more similar characteristics to Powys.  Predominantly detached dwelling type. Few flats & terraced apart from Shrewsbury & Hereford.  Decreasing social rented sector & increasing private rental sector. House prices in west area are generally high in comparison to other parts of west midlands.  North Shropshire, Shrewsbury & Oswestry have lower average prices in comparison to other parts of the west area. South Shropshire & Bridgenorth have higher prices.

 Trends in house prices for the west market sub-areas are reflected over border in Powys where Brecon & Radnorshire prices are higher than in Montgomeryshire.

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Denbighshire Local Housing Market Assessment, Update June 2011  This assessment is an update for Denbighshire following the publication of the North East Wales Housing Market Assessment in 2008 (details further below).

 Six local housing markets (which supersede those in the North East Wales LHMA) as identified in the figure below:

Figure 22 – Denbighshire Local Housing Market Areas

Source: Glyndwr University (2011) Denbighshire LHMA  The Update highlights the need to increase the supply of two bedroom, and possibly three bedroom dwellings to meet the future needs and demands of smaller households. It recommends that 25-30% of additional dwellings should be designed with the needs of older and/or disabled households as a key consideration e.g. bungalows/flats with lift access/supported/sheltered schemes. The assessment recommends a County wide affordable housing target of 22% for social rented

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affordable housing as part of an overall affordability target of 33% as the starting point for all negotiations of sites qualifying for affordable housing. The assessment also recommends a ‘sliding scale’ be formulated by the Council using an increasing affordable housing target between 30-40% based on minimum site thresholds measured in hectares or number of dwellings, whichever is the smaller and adjusted by a measure of what constitutes a small, medium and large development. The scale can also be further adjusted on specific site requirements where a higher affordable housing target is required to meet a particular identified housing need/intermediate housing demand up to and beyond 50%” (Glyndwr University 2011, Denbighshire LHMA).

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North East Wales Housing Market Assessment 2008

 GVA Grimley LLP were commissioned alongside the University of Bangor by the Partnership of Flintshire and Denbighshire County Councils and Wrexham County Borough Council to undertake a joint LHMA. The results from this have been used to support the information in the more recent assessment just for the Denbighshire area, as this looked more widely at the interaction between bordering economic and housing markets.

 The housing market areas are shown in the figure below:

Source: GVA Grimley

 Travel to work patterns discussed in the assessment from based on a 2004 population study suggests a travel to work flow that almost bypasses North Powys going into England and is not necessarily a work/home destination. However there

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are some links recognised with travelling to work in Wrexham and Oswestry from Powys.

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North West Wales Local Housing Market Assessment – Gwynedd & Snowdonia 2008

 With the most populated areas in North West Wales situated along the northern coast, there is perhaps a focus for housing need away from the Powys boundary, although most of the areas as highlighted in the figure below, along with Powys form the northern part of Central Wales as set out in the Wales Spatial Plan and are recognised as being linked internally. A need for housing was particularly demonstrated in the Snowdonia National Park area (adjacent to the Powys border) due its protected landscape. The Cambrian rail line provides links between the west coast of Wales and Powys, Machynlleth as one of the key stops just over the border into Powys. Figure 24 – North West Wales Local housing market areas, based on wards

LHMA Number Name LHMA01 North Anglesey LHMA02 Holyhead LHMA03 Menai LHMA 04 Caernarfon LHMA05 Llyn Peninsula LHMA06 Llandudno LHMA07 Rhyl LHMA08 Bala LHMA09 South Gwynedd LHMA10 Porthmadog LHMA11 Dyffryn Conwy LHMA12 Vale of Clwyd LHMA13 Bay of Colwyn

Source: Map 12 from the 2008 North West Wales LHMA

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Brecon Beacons National Park Affordable Housing Submarket Areas  These are not housing market areas, but areas of similar house prices to use in affordable housing policy thresholds. Regard will therefore be given to them.

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Conclusions of desk top & engagement work

 Whilst some local authority LHMAs suggested a few cross-boundary relationships, the research and engagement work identified a number of issues and contributing factors why it is not possible to identify specific cross-border market areas:

 Adjoining authorities only indicate relationships, but little further detail available.  Incompatible areas because different methodologies have been used to define local housing market areas. In other words, different building blocks have been used e.g. BBNPA used postcode areas, Powys used Lower Super Output Areas, Ceredigion used travel to work areas etc.  Some markets do cross boundaries, but can only consider need for part of market in Powys. Joint assessment would be complicated because local planning authorities are preparing separate LDPs and Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) charging schedules to different timescales. Also Local Housing Authorities are at different stages of their LHMAs.

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Appendix B – List of Acronyms

Abbreviation Full Term/Definition BBNP/BBNPA Brecon Beacons National Park/ Brecon Beacons National Park Authority CAS Common Allocations Scheme CHR Common Housing Register CIL Community Infrastructure Levy CML Council of Mortgage Lenders GTAA Gypsy Traveller Accommodation Assessment HA Housing Association HH Household LA Local Authority LCHO Low Cost Home Ownership LDP Local Development Plan LHMA Local Housing Market Assessment LHNS Local Housing Needs Survey LVR Loan to Value Ratio MYE Mid Year Estimate OMV Open Market Value ONS Office for National Statistics PCC Powys County Council PPW Planning Policy Wales RSL Registered Social Landlord WG (WAG) Welsh Government (formerly Welsh Assembly Government) WHQS Welsh Housing Quality Standard

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Appendix C – WG 2011-based Household Projections

Principal Projections for 2011 to 2016 The table below demonstrates the impact of the growth predicted by the WG’s principal 2011-based household projections for 2011 to 2016. An increase of 1,848 households over the five years would require 166 intermediate housing units (9%) and 462 social housing units (25%). Table 23 of main report also refers. However 462 social rented units will not address the backlog on waiting lists, nor provide for newly arising homelessness, neither does it take account of the potential supply from relets from existing and new stock and commitments, as described in chapters 6 to 8. Once these are all accounted for, the net social rented need increases to 1,068 units, that is a ratio of 58 new social rented units to every 100 additional households.

Table 46 impact of principal projection

and

need

projected HH increase projected HH (25%) (9%)

Local Housing Market Area Market Local Housing households %of Powys 2011census 2011 2016 to socialrented intermediate Open market (66%) net social need rented & i/clists homeless waiting additional supply net socal rented asgrowth % of LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 23% 424 106 38 280 451 106%

LHM2 Machynlleth Border 3% 61 15 5 40 72 117%

LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 21% 388 97 35 256 114 29%

LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 8% 141 35 13 93 73 52% LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & 10% 184 46 17 121 -5 -3% Rhayader

LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 5% 97 24 9 64 98 101%

LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 19% 355 89 32 234 328 92%

LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 8% 144 36 13 95 -136 -94%

LHM9 Crickhowell Border 3% 54 14 5 36 104 192%

POWYS 100% 1848 462 166 1220 1068 58%

LHM7 +LHM9 (BBNP proxy) 22% 409 102 37 270 432 105% Note: Rows and columns may not add, due to rounding. Negative shortfalls represent over- supply

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It should be noted that while overall household growth and homelessness have been apportioned relative to the number of households in each LHM area, the waiting lists reflect the popularity of the area to households on the register. For this reason some areas eg LHM9 have higher net social rented need than household growth, and some areas such as LHM8 have a surplus of supply over demand and hence a negative net social rented need. The effects of welfare reform and new legislation being rolled out may alter this assumed position.

Alternative Scenario - Lower Variant Projections for 2011 to 2016 If the household growth is lower, for example 1,745 households over 2011-2016 given by the lower variant projections, then the net social rented need decreases also but not by so much, and the effect is to increase the ratio of social rented need to household growth to 60%, as shown in the table below.

Table 47 Impact of lower variant projection

projected HH increase projected HH (25%) (9%)

Local Housing Market Area Market Local Housing households %of Powys 2011census 2011 2016 to socialrented intermediate Open market (66%) net social need rented and & i/clists homeless waiting additional supply net need socal rented asgrowth % of LHM1 Welshpool Triangle 23% 401 100 36 264 445 111%

LHM2 Machynlleth Border 3% 58 14 5 38 71 123%

LHM3 Newtown & Llanidloes 21% 366 92 33 242 109 30%

LHM4 Knighton & Presteigne Border 8% 133 33 12 88 71 54% LHM5 Llandrindod Wells & 10% 173 43 16 114 Rhayader -7 -4%

LHM6 Builth & Llanwrtyd Wells 5% 92 23 8 61 97 106%

LHM7 Brecon, Talgarth & Hay 19% 335 84 30 221 323 96%

LHM8 Ystradgynlais Border 8% 136 34 12 90 -137 -101%

LHM9 Crickhowell Border 3% 51 13 5 34 103 202%

POWYS 100% 1745 436 157 1152 1044 60%

LHM7 +LHM9 (BBNP proxy) 22% 386 97 35 255 426 110% Note: Rows and columns may not add, due to rounding. Negative shortfalls represent over- supply

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