Overview of the 24 May 2011 Tornado Outbreak
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National Weather Service Instruction 10-1601 November 3, 2005
Department of Commerce $ National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration $ National Weather Service NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INSTRUCTION 10-1601 NOVEMBER 3, 2005 Operations and Services Performance, NWSPD 10-16 VERIFICATION PROCEDURES NOTICE: This publication is available at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/. OPR: OS52 (Charles Kluepfel) Certified by: OS5 (Kimberly Campbell) Type of Issuance: Routine SUMMARY OF REVISIONS: This directive supersedes National Weather Service Instruction 10-1601, dated April 10, 2004. The following changes have been made to this directive: 1) Introductory information on the legacy verification systems for public (section 1.1.1) and terminal aerodrome (section 6.1.1) forecasts has replaced outdated information in these sections. 2) The verification of fire weather forecasts (section 1.4) and red flag warnings (section 1.5) has been added. 3) Monthly preliminary reporting requirements for tornado and flash flood warning verification statistics have been discontinued and respectively removed from sections 2.1 and 4.1. 4) Rule 2, implemented January 1, 2002, for short-fused warnings, has been discontinued for all tornado/severe thunderstorm (section 2.1.2) and special marine (section 3.3.2) warnings issued after February 28, 2005. Once VTEC is implemented for flash flood warnings (section 4.1.2), Rule 2 will also be discontinued for all flash flood warnings issued after the change. 5) The time of warning issuance for tornado, severe thunderstorm and special marine warnings is taken from the Valid Time and Event Code (VTEC) line (sections 2.1.3 and 3.3.3). 6) The National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) are now verified. -
New Methods in Tornado Climatology
Geography Compass 9/4 (2015): 157–168, 10.1111/gec3.12205 New Methods in Tornado Climatology Holly M. Widen*, Tyler Fricker and James B. Elsner Florida State University Abstract How climate change might affect tornadoes remains an open scientific question. Climatological studies are often contested due to inconsistencies in the available data. Statistical methods are used to overcome some of the data limitations. A few of these methods including using the proportion of tornadoes occur- ring on big tornado days, estimating tornado energy from the damage path, and modeling counts spatially are described here. The methods move beyond analyses of occurrences by damage ratings and spatial smoothing. Applications of these and related methods will help grow the nascent field of tornado climatology. 1. Introduction Climate change and the recent high-impact tornado events have bolstered interest in the field of tornado climatology (Agee and Childs, 2014; Dixon et al., 2011; Farney and Dixon, 2014; Simmons and Sutter, 2012; Standohar-Alfano and van de Lindt, 2014). There is much to learn about how tornadoes might collectively change as the earth continues to warm. For example, new research shows more tornadoes on fewer days (Brooks et al., 2014; Elsner et al., 2014a), perhaps related to the combination of addi- tional moisture and warming aloft (Elsner et al., 2014a). Yet there is greater uncertainty surrounding the interpretation of such results owing to the nature of the dataset (Kunkel et al., 2013). Methods are needed to model the data that allow more confident physical interpretations. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) contains the most readily available tornado database in the world. -
Article a Climatological Perspective on the 2011 Alabama Tornado
Chaney, P. L., J. Herbert, and A. Curtis, 2013: A climatological perspective on the 2011 Alabama tornado outbreak. J. Operational Meteor., 1 (3), 1925, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2013.0103. Journal of Operational Meteorology Article A Climatological Perspective on the 2011 Alabama Tornado Outbreak PHILIP L. CHANEY Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama JONATHAN HERBERT and AMY CURTIS Jacksonville State University, Jacksonville, Alabama (Manuscript received 23 January 2012; in final form 17 September 2012) ABSTRACT This paper presents a comparison of the recent 27 April 2011 tornado outbreak with a tornado climatology for the state of Alabama. The climatology for Alabama is based on tornadoes that affected the state during the 19812010 period. A county-level risk index is produced from this climatology. Tornado tracks from the 2011 outbreak are mapped and compared with the climatology and risk index. There were 62 tornadoes in Alabama on 27 April 2011, including many long-track and intense tornadoes. The event resulted in 248 deaths in the state. The 2011 outbreak is also compared with the April 1974 tornado outbreak in Alabama. 1. Introduction population density (Gagan et al. 2010; Dixon et al. 2011). Tornadoes have been documented in every state in Alabama is affected in the spring and fall by the United States and on every continent except midlatitude cyclones, often associated with severe Antarctica. The United States has by far the most weather and tornadoes. During summer and fall tornado reports annually of any country, averaging tornadoes also can be produced by tropical cyclones. A about 1,300 yr-1. -
19.4 Updated Mobile Radar Climatology of Supercell
19.4 UPDATED MOBILE RADAR CLIMATOLOGY OF SUPERCELL TORNADO STRUCTURES AND DYNAMICS Curtis R. Alexander* and Joshua M. Wurman Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION evolution of angular momentum and vorticity near the surface in many of the tornado cases is also High-resolution mobile radar observations of providing some insight into possible modes of supercell tornadoes have been collected by the scale contraction for tornadogenesis and failure. Doppler On Wheels (DOWs) platform between 1995 and present. The result of this ongoing effort 2. DATA is a large observational database spanning over 150 separate supercell tornadoes with a typical The DOWs have collected observations in and data resolution of O(50 m X 50 m X 50 m), near supercell tornadoes from 1995 through 2008 updates every O(60 s) and measurements within including the fields of Doppler velocity, received 20 m of the surface (Wurman et al. 1997; Wurman power, normalized coherent power, radar 1999, 2001). reflectivity, coherent reflectivity and spectral width (Wurman et al. 1997). Stemming from this database is a multi-tiered effort to characterize the structure and dynamics of A typical observation is a four-second quasi- the high wind speed environments in and near horizontal scan through a tornado vortex. To date supercell tornadoes. To this end, a suite of there have been over 10000 DOW observations of algorithms is applied to the radar tornado supercell tornadoes comprising over 150 individual observations for quality assurance along with tornadoes. detection, tracking and extraction of kinematic attributes. Data used for this study include DOW supercell tornado observations from 1995-2003 comprising The integration of observations across tornado about 5000 individual observations of 69 different cases in the database is providing an estimate of mesocyclone-associated tornadoes. -
Dixie Alley: Fact Or Fallacy : an in Depth Analysis of Tornado Distribution in Alabama
Mississippi State University Scholars Junction Theses and Dissertations Theses and Dissertations 1-1-2004 Dixie alley: Fact or Fallacy : An In Depth Analysis of Tornado Distribution in Alabama Kristin Nichole Hurley Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarsjunction.msstate.edu/td Recommended Citation Hurley, Kristin Nichole, "Dixie alley: Fact or Fallacy : An In Depth Analysis of Tornado Distribution in Alabama" (2004). Theses and Dissertations. 1549. https://scholarsjunction.msstate.edu/td/1549 This Graduate Thesis - Open Access is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses and Dissertations at Scholars Junction. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholars Junction. For more information, please contact [email protected]. DIXIE ALLEY:FACT OR FALLACY AN IN DEPTH ANALYSIS OF TORNADO DISTRIBUTION IN ALABAMA By Kristin Nichole Hurley A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Mississippi State University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geoscience in the Department of Geosciences Mississippi State, Mississippi May 2004 Copyright by Kristin Nichole Hurley 2004 DIXIE ALLEY: FACT OR FALLACY AN IN DEPTH ANALYSIS OF TORNADO DISTRIBUTION IN ALABAMA By Kristin Nichole Hurley ______________________________ ______________________________ Michael E. Brown Charles L. Wax Assistant Professor of Geosciences Professor of Geosciences (Director of Thesis) (Committee Member) ______________________________ ______________________________ John C. Rodgers, III John E. Mylroie Assistant Professor of Geosciences Graduate Coordinator of the Department (Committee Member) of Geosciences ______________________________ ______________________________ Mark S. Binkley Philip B. Oldham Professor and Head of the Department of Dean and Professor of the College of Geosciences Arts and Sciences Name: Kristin Nichole Hurley Date of Degree: May 8, 2004 Institution: Mississippi State University Major Field: Geoscience Major Professor: Dr. -
4B.5 Connecting the Dots: a Communications Model of the North Texas Integrated Warning Team During the 15 May 2013 Tornado Outbr
4B.5 Connecting the Dots: A Communications Model of the North Texas Integrated Warning Team During the 15 May 2013 Tornado Outbreak 1* 2 1 1 Dennis Cavanaugh , Melissa Huffman , Jennifer Dunn , and Mark Fox 1National Weather Service Forecast Office Fort Worth/Dallas, TX 2National Weather Service Forecast Office Houston, TX On 15 May 2013, 19 tornadoes occurred across North and Central Texas, killing 6, injuring over 50, and causing more than $100 million in property damage. The majority of the impacts to life and property were the direct result of EF-3 and EF-4 tornadoes that affected the communities of Cleburne and Granbury. This study focuses on an examination of the North Texas Integrated Warning Team (IWT) communications through a thorough analysis of interactions between IWT members during this event. Communications from all members of the IWT were collected and organized so that a quantitative analysis of the IWT communications network could be performed. The results of this analysis were used to identify strengths and weaknesses of current IWT communications to improve the consistency of hazardous weather messaging for future high impact weather events. The results also show how effectively communicating within an IWT leads not only to more consistent messaging, but also to broader dissemination of hazardous weather information to the public. The analysis techniques outlined in this study could serve as a model for comprehensive studies of IWTs across the country. 1. INTRODUCTION media representatives, amateur radio operators, * and the National Weather Service (Doswell et al. On 15 May 2013, 19 tornadoes occurred 1999). IWTs work to provide a consistent message across North and Central Texas, killing 6, injuring regarding a hazard because at-risk populations over 50, and causing more than $100 million in will not immediately take action in response to the property damage (NCDC 2013). -
Florida's Tornado Climatology: Occurrence Rates, Casualties, and Property Losses Emily Ryan
Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2018 Florida's Tornado Climatology: Occurrence Rates, Casualties, and Property Losses Emily Ryan Follow this and additional works at the DigiNole: FSU's Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected] FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES & PUBLIC POLICY FLORIDA'S TORNADO CLIMATOLOGY: OCCURRENCE RATES, CASUALTIES, AND PROPERTY LOSSES By EMILY RYAN A Thesis submitted to the Department of Geography in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science 2018 Copyright c 2018 Emily Ryan. All Rights Reserved. Emily Ryan defended this thesis on April 6, 2018. The members of the supervisory committee were: James B. Elsner Professor Directing Thesis David C. Folch Committee Member Mark W. Horner Committee Member The Graduate School has verified and approved the above-named committee members, and certifies that the thesis has been approved in accordance with university requirements. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables . v List of Figures . vi Abstract . viii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Definitions . 1 1.2 Where Tornadoes Occur . 3 1.3 Tornadoes in Florida . 4 1.4 Goals and Objectives . 6 1.5 Tornado Climatology as Geography . 6 1.6 Outline of the Thesis . 7 2 Data and Methods 9 2.1 Data . 9 2.1.1 Tornado Data . 9 2.1.2 Tropical Cyclone Tornado Data . 11 2.1.3 Property Value Data . 13 2.2 Statistical Methods . 15 2.3 Analysis Variables . 16 2.3.1 Occurrence Rates . 16 2.3.2 Casualties . 16 2.3.3 Property Exposures . -
Explaining the Trends and Variability in the United States Tornado Records
www.nature.com/scientificreports OPEN Explaining the trends and variability in the United States tornado records using climate teleconnections and shifts in observational practices Niloufar Nouri1*, Naresh Devineni1,2*, Valerie Were2 & Reza Khanbilvardi1,2 The annual frequency of tornadoes during 1950–2018 across the major tornado-impacted states were examined and modeled using anthropogenic and large-scale climate covariates in a hierarchical Bayesian inference framework. Anthropogenic factors include increases in population density and better detection systems since the mid-1990s. Large-scale climate variables include El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacifc Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The model provides a robust way of estimating the response coefcients by considering pooling of information across groups of states that belong to Tornado Alley, Dixie Alley, and Other States, thereby reducing their uncertainty. The infuence of the anthropogenic factors and the large-scale climate variables are modeled in a nested framework to unravel secular trend from cyclical variability. Population density explains the long-term trend in Dixie Alley. The step-increase induced due to the installation of the Doppler Radar systems explains the long-term trend in Tornado Alley. NAO and the interplay between NAO and ENSO explained the interannual to multi-decadal variability in Tornado Alley. PDO and AMO are also contributing to this multi-time scale variability. SOI and AO explain the cyclical variability in Dixie Alley. This improved understanding of the variability and trends in tornadoes should be of immense value to public planners, businesses, and insurance-based risk management agencies. -
A Sounding Derived Climatology of Significant Tornado Events in The
P12.14 A SOUNDING-DERIVED CLIMATOLOGY OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EVENTS IN THE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG, SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTY WARNING AREA (1948-2006) Justin D. Lane* NOAA/National Weather Service Greer, South Carolina 1. Introduction Based on these results, a region-specific climatology would be beneficial to Numerous climatological studies of forecasters in the southeast United States in soundings and sounding-derived parameters order to identify environments that may be associated with supercells and significant conducive to ST development. This study tornadoes (ST), defined as those rated F2 to will present a climatology of soundings and F5 on the Fujita Scale, exist in the sounding parameters associated with ST in meteorological literature (e.g., Rasmussen the Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (GSP) and Blanchard 1998; Rasmussen 2003; County Warning Area (CWA). Thompson et al. 2003). However, most of these studies have focused on events Section 2 contains the methodology and an occurring in the central portion of the United explanation of the various data sources States. The results of these studies used to create this climatology. Section 3 generally agree that supercell thunderstorms presents several composites of reanalysis and tornadoes typically require moderate to soundings associated with ST occurrence. large levels of instability and high values of Section 4 details the results of a statistical wind shear. However, experienced analysis of various parameters yielded by forecasters in the eastern United States can soundings that were constructed from attest to the fact that this combination is reanalysis data. The paper concludes with a extremely rare. This implies that supercells, discussion of the results in section 5. -
Service Assessment
Service Assessment Record Tornado Outbreaks of May 4-10, 2003 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Silver Spring, Maryland Cover Photographs: Left: F4 tornado near Girard, Kansas, May 4, 2003. (Chuck Robertson) Right: The tornado that moved through Girard later destroyed this home in Liberal, Missouri. The gun safe in the center of the basement was used as shelter by the residents of the home. None of the residents were injured. (Ken Harding, NOAA, NWS Aberdeen, South Dakota) Service Assessment Record Tornado Outbreaks of May 4-10, 2003 December 2003 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Donald L. Evans, Secretary National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., Administrator National Weather Service John J. Kelly, Jr., Assistant Administrator Preface During the period May 4-10, 2003, an unprecedented number of tornadoes affected the central and southern United States. During this period, 393 tornadoes occurred across the central and southern U.S. resulting in 39 deaths across 4 states. Six of these tornadoes were classified as violent (F4) on the Fujita Tornado Intensity Scale. Due to the magnitude of this event, a service assessment team was formed to examine the warning and forecast services provided to emergency managers (EMs), government agencies and the public. Service assessments are used to improve techniques of National Weather Service products and services to the American public through the recommendations in the report. John J. Kelly, -
Emmy-2020-Program-Final.Pdf
TONIGHT’S PROGRAM SATURDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2020 LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT 3 LETTER FROM THE AWARDS CHAIR 4 LONE STAR CHAPTER JUDGING POLICY 5 LONE STAR EMMY® CHAPTER BOARD OF GOVERNORS 6 LONE STAR EMMY® CHAPTER BOARD MEMBERS AND COMMITTEES 7 LONE STAR EMMY® NOMINATIONS NEWS GATHERING 9 SPOT ANNOUNCEMENTS 16 PROGRAMMING (NON-NEWS) 20 NEWS SPECIALTY 24 PROGRAMMING (NON-NEWS) 33 NEWS GATHERING 36 OVERALL EXCELLENCE 41 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 43 LETTER FROM THE 2020 LONE STAR EMMY® A W A R D S 3 PRESIDENT Good evening and welcome to the 2020 Lone Star EMMY® Awards. I also thank the Lone Star Board of Governors, those who have donated their time to keep the Chapter operating during this As President of the Lone Star Chapter, it is my pleasure to welcome challenging time. I’d like to thank Linnea Lewis and our production you to our annual evening of celebration and recognition. Obviously, team for pivoting from a live production to what you see 2020 has been a year like no other, and like so many others, we are tonight. Remember, all of this was done while keeping to the presenting a virtual show tonight. standards and guidelines established by the National Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, and in spite of a pandemic. I am When COVID first broke out, we were hopeful to still meet in proud to say, this group has worked tirelessly to make tonight the San Antonio, but it wasn’t meant to be. Tonight, as we take a best experience possible for you. different approach in this very different year, we continue to honor the very best in regional production. -
Exploring Impacts of Rapid-Scan Radar Data on NWS Warning Decisions
AUGUST 2012 H E I N S E L M A N E T A L . 1031 Exploring Impacts of Rapid-Scan Radar Data on NWS Warning Decisions PAMELA L. HEINSELMAN NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma DAPHNE S. LADUE Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma HEATHER LAZRUS* Social Science Woven into Meteorology, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma (Manuscript received 30 November 2011, in final form 2 April 2012) ABSTRACT Rapid-scan weather radars, such as the S-band phased array radar at the National Weather Radar Testbed in Norman, Oklahoma, improve precision in the depiction of severe storm processes. To explore potential impacts of such data on forecaster warning decision making, 12 National Weather Service forecasters par- ticipated in a preliminary study with two control conditions: 1) when radar scan time was similar to volume coverage pattern 12 (4.5 min) and 2) when radar scan time was faster (43 s). Under these control conditions, forecasters were paired and worked a tropical tornadic supercell case. Their decision processes were observed and audio was recorded, interactions with data displays were video recorded, and the products were archived. A debriefing was conducted with each of the six teams independently and jointly, to ascertain the forecaster decision-making process. Analysis of these data revealed that teams examining the same data sometimes came to different conclusions about whether and when to warn. Six factors contributing toward these dif- ferences were identified: 1) experience, 2) conceptual models, 3) confidence, 4) tolerance of possibly missing a tornado occurrence, 5) perceived threats, and 6) software issues.