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T h e Un i v e r s i t y o f O k l a h o m a G r a d u a t e C o l l e g e WARNING RECEPTION, RESPONSE, AND RISK BEHAVIOR IN THE 3 MAY 1999 OKLAHOMA CITY LONG-TRACK VIOLENT TORNADO A D issertation S u b m it t e d t o t h e G r a d u a t e F a c u l t y in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of D o c t o r o f P h i l o s o p h y By M a t t h e w D a v i d B id d l e Norman, Oklahoma 2007 UMI Number: 3291248 UMJ UMI Microform 3291248 Copyright 2008 by ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest Information and Learning Company 300 North Zeeb Road P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 WARNING RECEPTION, RESPONSE, AND RISK BEHAVIOR IN THE 3 MAY 1999 OKLAHOMA CITY LONG-TRACK VIOLENT TORNADO A DISSERTATION APPROVED FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY BY J. Scott Greene - Chair M ark Meo Karl H. Offen T. H. Lee Williams Charles A. Doswell III © Copyright by Matthew David Biddle 2007 All Rights Reserved. D e d i c a t i o n This work is dedicated to the victims of the tornadoes of 3 May 1999, their families, the first responders, the weather service personnel, and all that were touched by the forces of Mother Nature that fateful Monday evening. The generous gifts of stories and photos, fears and tears, and observations and recommendations are of tremendous value if not only for history’s sake, but with the hope of preventing similar disasters in the future. Damaged Residence in Moore, 4 May 1999 - Todd Lindley - Copyright. and To my daughter - Faith Aleksondra Biddle (b. 2002) - who has been a source of immediate and continuous inspiration, is a source of incessant pride and joy. and will always be the focus of my deepest love. I could not have done this with out the help of many, but 1 likely would not have done this without Faith. I .J t t i S i m Matthew and Faith Biddle • c. October 2004 - Debt Ellis - Copyright -IV- A cknowledgments I would like to thank my parents - Peter and Jan Biddle, and Sondra and John Henry; and family - Andrew, Shawn, and Delaney Biddle; Jason, Nancy, Madison, Luke, Lauren, and Megan Biddle; I love you all. My ex-wife Mamie Sprinkle seems a strange one to thank - but she really was key when the stroke took my life for 20 months (and beyond). Thank you. I would like to thank the Committee - who stayed on with me after I changed topics, but through my stroke - J.Scott Greene, Karl Offen, Mark Meo (all DOG), T.H. Lee Williams (DOG and Graduate College), and Charles Doswell III (SOM). [Department of Geography (DOG) and School of Meteorology (SOM)]. James Goodman (deceased), Gary Thompson, Bret Wallach (all DOG) for believing in me despite the hang ups - which lasted some 20 years. May Yuan, Dustin Howard, William McPherson, Melissa Scott, and Mike Klatt helped with the maps and GIS (all DOG). Catherine Blaha, Lauren Browder, Todd Fagin, Kaye Carter, Melaney Dickens, Marco Micozzi, Dave Robertson, Fred Shelley, Julie Rice, Monica Wilkinson, Helen Robertson, Joyce Green, Melissa Scott (all of DOG); Kathy Kanak (NSSL) and Jerry Straka (SOM); Eve Gruntfest (Univ. of Colorado-Colorado Springs); Duncan Burgess and Elizabeth Woollen (OUPD); David Van Nostrand (OCEM), Gayland Kitch (Moore CEM), John Hansen (OCFD), Susan Ghere and Gary England (KWTX-9); Doris and Tom Grazulis (Tornado Project); Greg Stumpf, Harold Brooks, Kevin Scharfenberg, Ed Kessler (retired), Erik Rasmussen (all NSSL); and Jim Purpura, Dave Andra, Doug Speheger, Dan Miller, and Pat Burke (all WFO-OUN); Roger Edwards and Rich Thompson (SPC); Christine Cagle of the Oklahoma State Medical Examiner’s Office; Keli Tarp (NWC) for help on the dissertation. Mark Askelson (NSSL - and his wife) and Casey Dick (Norman High) who helped with the surveys so long ago. The RNs and MDs and physical / occupational / speech therapists - who helped out not only with the stroke, but with countless things that are too many to name. Julie Jones (Norman Hospital) helped with my speech and the finalizing of the dissertation. I have aphasia, so I think there are some people I didn’t thank but you know who you are. Thank You ........ I have to thank (very much) - Kent Sanmann, Charles Doswell III, Kelly Dixon, Mark Herndon, Debi Ellis, and Melissa Scott for insisting I could do it (even though I answered “yes” to everything for approximately one month after the stroke) and never taking “no” for an answer during my stroke. I thank you for more than this dissertation. Thanks for standing behind me with stroke and recovery, and believing that there is a chance for life after a stroke. I am an expert on aphasia, though I am getting better every month! I am 70 % back from having the stroke, and perhaps in a few years from now, you will not know I had it? But, I thank Faith Aleksondra Biddle for coming along, with the stroke, or not. When the stroke hit, I did not fall into depression, because there is something about a 3 to 5 year old daughter cheering you on. I want her to know that if she reads this one year, or ten years, or fifty years from now, this dissertation was for her benefit even though it’s going to benefit me for the rest of my life. She’s my daughter and I want to find out what she’s going to be (so I am going to be around awhile). Faith: I love you. -V- T a b l e o f C o n t e n t s L ist of T ables ...........................................................................................................................................................................................IX L ist of F ig ures a nd P h o t o g r a ph s ..........................................................................................................................................X A bstr ac t ......................................................................................................................................................................................................XI 1 - I ntroduction ..........................................................................................................................................................................................1 1 .1 - K ey R ese a rc h Q u e s t io n s ........................................................................................................................................2 1.2 - A R eview of N atur a l H a z a r d s and W arning T h e o r y ................................................................. 3 1.3 - E nvironmental R isk and R isk P e r c e p t io n ............................................................................................ 5 1.3.1 - C ommunicating R is k V ia H a z a r d s ................................................................................................ 7 1.3.1.1 - Communicating Uncertainty....................................................................................... 8 1.4 - T he H u m a n E co lo g y of W e a th er W a rning and V ulnerability ........................................ 9 1.4.1 - W a r n in g B e h a v io r a n d C o p in g S t y l e s .........................................................................................13 1.4.1.1 - Confirmation Behavior ................................................................................................. 15 1.4.1.2 - False Alarms, Close Calls, and Cry W olf Syndrom e ..................................... 18 1 A .2 - W a r n in g M e s s a g e C o n t e n t ................................................................................................................. 19 1.4.2.1 - C a ll-to -A c tio n S ta te m e n ts ...............................................................................................20 1.4.2.2 - Spatial and Temporal Information ............................................................................ 20 2 - C ontemporary T o r n a d o W a rning Sy s t e m s.................................................................................................................23 2.1 - E v o lutio n of the W a t c h -W arn in g P r o g r a m ......................................................................................24 l . \ . \ - B r i e f H is t o r y OF N W S Wa r n in g P r o g r a m ...................................................................................25 2.2 - T he US T o r n a d o P r o b l e m .....................................................................................................................................26 2.2.1 - T o r n a d o C l im a t o l o g y a n d t h e G e o g r a p h y o f R i s k ........................................... 27 2.2.1.1 - T o rn a d o E p id e m io lo g y........................................................................................ 29 2.3 - O k l a h o m a T o rn a d o C l im a t o l o g y ................................................................................................................31 2.3.1 - P r e v io u s O K C -A r e a T o r n a d o E v e n t s o f I m p o r t a n c e .......................................................33 2.4 - T he T o r n a d o W ar n in g P ro c ess U nd er the In t eg r a t e d W a r n in g S y s t e m ..................34 2 .5 - D issemination 36 2.5.1 -S i r e n s ...............................................................................................................................................................36 2.5.2 - Te l e v i s i o n ...................................................................................................................................................