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Kinas Bankindustri: Før, Nu Og Fremtid Kandidatafhandling Cand. Merc. Finansiering og Regnskab Copenhagen Business School Kinas bankindustri: Før, nu og fremtid Engelsk titel: Bank Industry of China: Then, Now and the Future Forfatter: Rita Xia Havsholm CPR nr. XXXXXX-XXXX Afleveret: 20. januar 2015 Vejleder: Jens Borges Anslag: 168.469 Antal normalsider: 79 Acknowledgement Thank God that I have finally made it. I would not be able to finish the study without the help from my family, my friends and most importantly my supervisor. I would like to thank my mom Sunny first for her constant support in the last 8 months and the last 27 years; my stepfather Jørn, who made this thesis look amazing; my girlfriends Raluca, Sarah and Julie, who encouraged me and guided me through the dark days; Anders Bredstorff, who proofread the whole thesis and gave me so many ideas; my dear supervisor, who tolerated me whenever I was late or got lazy and kept me going, without your guidance would this thesis never be written. To all of you, I will be forever in gratitude. Executive Summary China has become a hot topic everywhere today. People say that it’s just a matter of time now that China will overtake the throne from the US of being the biggest economy in the world. The truth is that, if the Chinese financial market collapse today, the financial markets all over the world will be dragged down with it tomorrow. Therefore it’s a very necessary and yet interesting to study the real picture inside China’s fast growing economy. The purpose of the thesis will be to describe the Chinese Bank Industry and its essential parts, which are the governmentowned banks, the shadow banks and at last the upcoming private banks. It has been known for many years that China had a government owned financial market, yet now it is allowing privately owned enterprises to open banks. How will the private banks affect the Chinese Bank Industry? Will they be able to compete with the government owned banks? These are the questions that will be answered here. This thesis starts with the banking history in China from hundreds of years ago until the 21st century. It describes in detail how China becomes one of the top economies in the world within 40 years, and illustrates a clear picture of the nowadays Chinese Bank Industry. It will also define Chinese Shadow Banks, as it is somehow different from the ones known from Europe or North America; and find out more about the private banks, and how they will benefit to the unsolved SME-financing problem in China. Since the subprime crisis from 2008, the world economy is still in recovery. Therefore will this thesis also study that, will the high level debt the Chinese government and the local governments have, together with the potential real estate bubble, result in another financial crisis? Though the answer can never be certain to this kind of questions, the study shows somehow that the Chinese government might have its way to prevent it. Indholdsfortegnelse 1. Introduktion ................................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Indledning ................................................................................................................................................ 3 1.2 Problemformulering ................................................................................................................................ 4 1.3 Afgrænsning ............................................................................................................................................. 4 1.4 Struktur og metode ................................................................................................................................. 5 2. Den kinesiske bankindustris udvikling ........................................................................................................... 6 2.1 De kinesiske bankers oprindelse ............................................................................................................. 6 2.2 De sidste 38 år siden Dengs reformer ..................................................................................................... 8 2.2.1 Reform & Opening-up ...................................................................................................................... 8 2.2.2 Finansielle problemer undervejs og deres løsninger ..................................................................... 10 2.2.3 WTO og Kinas bankindustri ............................................................................................................ 16 3. En analyse af det Kinesiske Banksystem i dag ............................................................................................. 18 3.1 Tilsynsmyndigheder ............................................................................................................................... 18 3.2 Centralbanken ....................................................................................................................................... 19 3.3 Politiske banker ..................................................................................................................................... 21 3.4 ”The 5 big” & ”the 4 big” ....................................................................................................................... 22 3.5 Joint-stock commercial banks ............................................................................................................... 25 3.6 Urban and rural commercial banks ....................................................................................................... 27 3.7 Udenlandske banker i Kina .................................................................................................................... 27 4. Shadow Banking .......................................................................................................................................... 29 4.1 Det kinesiske skyggebanksystem ........................................................................................................... 29 4.2 Skyggebankernes opgangstider ............................................................................................................. 33 4.3 En analyse af skyggebankernes aktiviteter ............................................................................................ 37 4.3.1 Wealth Management Products ...................................................................................................... 37 4.3.2 Trust ................................................................................................................................................ 40 4.3.3 Entrusted loans ............................................................................................................................... 43 4.3.4 Interbankmarkedet ......................................................................................................................... 44 5. Privatejede banker i Kina ............................................................................................................................. 46 5.1 Pilotprogram .......................................................................................................................................... 46 5.2 En analyse af ejerforhold ....................................................................................................................... 48 5.2.1 Tianjin Jincheng Bank （天津金城银行） ..................................................................................... 48 1 5.2.2 Shanghai Hua Rui Bank (上海华瑞银行) ........................................................................................ 49 5.2.3 Zhejiang E-Commerce Bank (浙江网商银行)................................................................................. 50 5.2.4 Wenzhou Civil Commercial Bank (温州民商银行) ......................................................................... 51 5.2.5 Qianhai WeBank (前海微众银行) .................................................................................................. 52 5.3 Evaluering af ejer-virksomhederne ................................................................................................... 53 6. Finansiering af mindre virksomheder i Kina ................................................................................................ 54 6.1 Mellem, små og mikrovirksomheder (MSME’er) .................................................................................. 54 6.2 En model af MSME-finansiering med hensyn til bankprofit.................................................................. 58 6.2.1 En stor bank i økonomien. .............................................................................................................. 58 6.2.2 En økonomi med flere finansielle institutter .................................................................................. 62 6.2.3 Test ................................................................................................................................................. 64 6.2.4 Perspektivering ............................................................................................................................... 70 7. En analyse af den kinesiske bankindustris udvikling i den nærmeste fremtid ............................................ 72 7.1 Betydningen af de kommende privatejede banker ............................................................................... 72 7.2 Online banking-tendens .......................................................................................................................
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