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CHINESE BANK's CREDIT RISK ASSESSMENT Doctor CHINESE BANK’S CREDIT RISK ASSESSMENT A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Scottish Graduate Programme in Economics Department of Economics University of Stirling By YUAN MU MSc (SGPE, University of Edinburgh) BA (Peking University) May, 2007 Declaration In accordance with the Regulations for Higher Degrees by Research, I hereby declare that the whole thesis now submitted for the candidature of Doctor of Philosophy is a result of my own research and independent work except there reference is made to published literature. I also hereby certify that the work embodied in this thesis has not ready been submitted in any substance of any degree and is not being concurrently submitted in candidature for any degree from any other institute of higher leaning. I am responsible for any errors and omissions present in the thesis. Candidate: ________________________ Yuan Mu Abstract This thesis studies the Chinese banks’ credit risk assessment using the Post Keynesian approach. We argue that bank loans are the major financial sources in emerging economies and it is uncertainty, an unquantifiable risk, rather than asymmetric information about quantifiable risk, as held by the mainstream approach, which is most important for the risk attached to credit loans, and this uncertainty is particularly important in China. With the universal existence of uncertainty, borrowers and lenders have to make decisions based on convention and experience. With regard to the nature of decision-making, this implies the importance of qualitative methods rather than quantitative methods. The current striking problem in Chinese banking is the large amount of Non- Performing Loans (NPLs) and this research aims to address the NPLs through improving credit risk management. Rather than the previous literature where Western models are introduced into China directly or with minor modification, this work advocates building on China’s conventional domestic methods to deal with uncertainty. We briefly review the background of the Chinese banking history with an evolutionary view and examine Chinese conventions in the development of the credit market. Based on an overview of this history, it is argued that Soft Budget Constraints (SBC) and the underdeveloped risk-assessing mechanism contributed to the accumulation of NPLs. Informed by Western models and experience, we have made several suggestions about rebuilding the Chinese convention of credit risk assessment, based on an analysis of publications and interviews with Chinese bankers. We also suggest some further development of the Asset Management Companies (AMCs) which are used to dispose of the NPLs. i Acknowledgements I owe a great debt to Professor Sheila Dow, who supervised the thesis. Under her encouraging guidance and questioning, the ideas presented here have taken form. During the process I have grown to appreciate her as not only as intellectual mentor, but also as friend. If I could have used my time more wisely, I could learn more from her. I am also indebted to Dr. Dipak Ghosh for co-supervising this thesis. I particularly thank him for all his invaluable suggestions, feedbacks, critical reflections, and his support and patience in helping me in the areas of transition economy and financial derivatives. I am grateful to the members of the Economics Department of Stirling University for their encouragement and friendship; in particular I would like to thank my colleague Kobil Ruziev and Toshtemir Majidov for their friendship and offering me suggestions. My deepest thanks go to my beloved wife, Xiaowei Zhou, who sacrificed most. She has encouraged me to fulfil my ambitions and has supported me during three difficult years travelling between Stirling and Beijing. Most of her income from par- time work was spent on the flight tickets. ii Table of Contents Page Abstract i Acknowledgement ii Table of Contents iii List of Tables vii List of Figures viii List of Abbreviation x Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 2 Money, Banking and Risk Assessment in Credit Market 6 2.1 Financial development and economic growth 8 2.2 Finance: Banking vs. Capital market 11 2.3 Money in the Post Keynesian View 18 2.4 Uncertainty, information and knowledge 23 2.5 Money supply and credit supply 29 2.6 Credit rationing and the New Keynesian’s approach 33 2.7 Minsky’s model and the Post Keynesian approach 36 2.8 The evolution of banking and the credit market 46 2.9 The importance of history in the bank assessment of credit-worthiness 50 2.10 Conclusion 53 Chapter 3 History of Chinese Banking Before 1949 54 3.1 “Three Kingdoms” in the financial market: Background of the 55 appearance of China’s modern banking 3.2 The emergence of modern banks with the collapse of the “Three 60 Kingdoms” 3.3 The “Golden Age” of Modern Chinese Banks (1927-1937) 70 3.4 Modern Chinese Banks in War Period (1937-1949) 76 iii 3.5 Conclusion 82 Chapter 4 Banking and Credit Market in the Planned Economy 84 4.1 The features of the planned economy and China’s socialist 85 transformation 4.2 Planning system in China 91 4.3 Money and payment system (1950-1978) 95 4.4 Centralized banking system and the credit allocation 96 4.5 Soft budget constraint: definition, origin and theories 97 4.6 Conclusion 105 Chapter 5 Banking in Transition and Bank Reform 106 5.1 Political reform in late 1970s. 107 5.2 The dual-track system and the banking reform in China’s transition 108 5.3 Securitization and the growth of stock market 125 5.4 Problems in stock market and Chinese banking in transition 132 5.5 Conclusion 140 Chapter 6 The role of quantitative methods in credit risk assessment: A 142 critical review of literature 6.1 Traditional systems in assessing credit risk: Expert system, credit rating 143 and credit score 6.2 The development of credit risk assessment in the mainstream approach 148 6.3 Popular modern models in assessing credit risk: KMV-Merton model, 155 CreditMetrics, McKensey model and CreditRisk+ model 6.4 Credit derivative market 168 6.5 Background of credit risk assessment in China 170 6.6 Literature review of the risk assessment in China 171 6.7 Conclusion 180 Chapter 7 Evidence of credit risk assessment in China and the UK 182 iv 7.1 The corporate loans structure and procedure in the Chinese banks 184 7.2 My interviews with Chinese bankers 192 7.3 Findings of interviews with Chinese bankers 194 7.4 Analysis of interview with a British banker in the autumn of 2006 203 7.5 A comparison of credit risk control between Chinese style and UK style 218 7.6 The Post Keynesian approach and bank strategy 231 7.7 Conclusion 234 Chapter 8 Dealing with the Existent NPLs 236 8.1 Origin and current situation of the NPLs in Chinese banking 237 8.2 Split NPLs and restructuring through Asset Management Companies 240 (AMCs) 8.3 The experience of other countries (US, Hungary, and Japan) 249 8.4 The existing problems in China’s NPL disposal methods and some 255 suggestions 8.5 Conclusion 269 Chapter 9 Case Studies 271 9.1 Case study (I) – credit risk management in ICBC, the largest state- 272 owned commercial bank in China 9.2 Case study (II) – credit risk control in the banking system of a medium- 279 sized city (City A) in north China 9.3 Conclusion 289 Chapter 10 Conclusion 290 Appendices 301 Appendix 1A Interview Transcripts 1 (I1, English) 302 Appendix 1B Interview Transcripts 2 (I1, Chinese) 308 Appendix 2A Interview Transcripts 3 (I2, English) 312 Appendix 2B Interview Transcripts 4 (I2, Chinese) 318 v Appendix 3A Interview Transcripts 5 (I3, English) 322 Appendix 3B Interview Transcripts 6 (I3, Chinese) 327 Appendix 4A Interview Transcripts 7 (I4, English) 330 Appendix 4B Interview Transcripts 8 (I4, Chinese) 333 Appendix 5 Interview Transcripts 9 (I5, English) 335 Appendix 6 Bank and Credit Survey in Beijing, China (autumn, 2005) 368 Bibliography 389 vi List of Tables Page Chapter 3 Table 3.3.1 Growth of Modern Chinese banks (1927-1936) 71 Table 3.4.1 Price and inflation from 1937 to 1945 80 Table 3.4.2 Inflation from 1945 to 1948 81 Chapter 4 Table 4.1.1 Pre-war and Post-war rates of investment in China (1931-1959) 89 Chapter 8 Table 8.2.1 The general situation of Chinese asset management companies 242 Table 8.2.2 Disposal of non-performing assets by AMCs in 2005 and 2006 245 Table 8.2.3 Disposal of non-performing assets by the four AMCs by the first 246 quarter of 2006 Chapter 9 Table 9.2.1 General situation of the banks in City A 280 Table 9.2.2 General information about deposits and NPLs in the banks of City 286 A vii List of Figures Chapter 2 Page Figure 2.2.1 The Financial Superstructure 17 Figure 2.5.1 An increase of money supply in Horizontalist view 31 Figure 2.7.1 Determinants of a firm’s investment and external finance 40 ratio Figure 2.7.2 Minsky’s model with high level of confidence in 42 expectations Figure 2.7.3 Minsky’s model with lower levels of confidence and low 44 expected Pk Figure 2.7.4: Minsky’s model with no investment 45 Chapter 6 Figure 6.3.1 Credit Metrics Framework 160 Chapter 8 Figure 8.2.1 Organizational structure of AMCs 243 Figure 8.2.2 Disposal of NPLs by Four AMCs (2004-2006Q1) 246 Figure 8.2.3 Quarterly growth rate of NPLs disposal ratio and cash 247 recovery (2004-2006Q1) Figure 8.4.1 Relationships between SOEs, SOBs, AMCs, and 258 government Figure 8.4.2 Accumulative disposal of NPLs 264 Chapter 9 Figure 9.2.1 Distribution of Total Assets (RMB bn) in the banks of City 281 A Figure 9.2.2 Bank Employment Distribution in City A 283 Figure 9.2.3 Growth Rate of Total Assets in the banks of City A 284 viii Figure 9.2.4
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