Aviation Week & Space Technology

Why Are Airliners Still Helicopter Industry Report U.S. Space Force Getting Shot Down? New Decade, Old Problems Takes Shape RICH MEDIA EXCLUSIVE $14.95 JANUARY 27- FEBRUARY 9, 2020

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airbus.com January 27-February 9, 2020 . Volume 182 . Number 2 AVIATIONWEEK 2019Winner Winner 2016 & SPACE TECHNOLOGY

The Spitzer Space Telescope’s observations were the first 16 to reveal the smooth, bright ring of dust (in red) that circles the Sombrero galaxy and that the disk is warped.

DEPARTMENTS BUSINESS 6 | Feedback 16 | Launchpad 25 | IAG architect Willie Walsh 32 | The new trend in acquisitions: 7 | Who’s Where 64 | Classified passes leadership to Iberia CEO mergers of equal but different | First Take 65 | Contact Us 8 26 | Chinese governments expand SPACE 12 | Up Front 65 | Aerospace airline investments 34 | SLS core stage is shipped to 14 Calendar | Going Concerns Stennis for green run 15 | Leading Edge 27 | Malaysia faces lengthy process to regain FAA rating 37 | SpaceX passes last major test DEFENSE before crewed flight FEATURES 29 | U.S. Air Force Death Claw shows 38 | First official member joins the 22 | Deja Vu new way to speed development new U.S. Space Force Airlines are fending for themselves SIMULATION & TRAINING as industry/government conflict- AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT 30 Eye-tracking system is seen as zone measures remain elusive | 40 | European and North Atlantic a new aid for pilot training data-link mandates come due 42 | Helicopter Report Updates on Formula 1 tech for TECHNOLOGY VIEWPOINT rotorcraft, Swiss Kopter and 31 | Research on pilot brain activity is 66 | Governments, not airlines, must Bell 525 program progress, helping with cockpit design decide when it is not safe to fly H160 automation and Russian investment BEHIND THE SCENES 51 | The Engineering Life During a tour of Israel Aerospace The Naval Air Warfare Center’s Industries in early January, Defense Dan Prosser, an Aviation Week 20 Editor Steve Trimble visited “B3,” Twenty of 2013 the third and final prototype from 52 | Aerospace in Israel the Lavi fighter program that Israel Our special report on the country’s canceled in 1987 under heavy distributed command-and-control pressure by the U.S. For a snapshot network, New Space, UAS, sensors, of Israel’s military technology missiles and evolving industry base today, see our special report starting on page 52.

COMMERCIAL AVIATION ISRAELAEROSPACE 18 | Suppliers and customers suffer as ON THE COVER Boeing 737 MAX return slips Israeli Air Force fighters such as the Lockheed Martin F-35I are increasingly employing technologies that can conquer the essential challenge of modern warfare: How to choose the right weapon from the 20 | Boeing knowingly pushed cost right platform within minutes? Defense Editor Steve Trimble’s reporting, informed by a tour of Israeli savings over safety with MAX aerospace and defense companies, begins on page 52. Photo by Amit Agronov. 24 | NATO works with ATC as silent Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/AWST flights spur fighter jet scrambles DIGITAL EXTRAS Access exclusive online features from articles accompanied by this icon.

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 3 FLY ABOVE EXPECTATIONS Editor-In-Chief AT SINGAPORE AIRSHOW 2020 Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors As Asia’s largest aerospace and defence event, Singapore Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Airshow 2020 will play a crucial role in creating opportunities, Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] driving innovations and shaping the future of flight. Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, 5 reasons to visit aviation’s finest Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- • View exhibits from over 1,000 of the world’s leading aerospace companies Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, • Explore disruption solutions devised by entrepreneurial minds at What’s Next Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble startup showcase Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George • Gain insights from world-class though leaders at high-level conferences and Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt business forums including Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell - Singapore Airshow Aviation Leadership Summit (SAALS) Art Director Lisa Caputo - Next Generation MRO in a Digital World Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm - Changing the Game for Manufacturing - How New OEM Business Models are Rewriting Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, the Rule Book for Suppliers Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie - Lindbergh Innovation Forum Production Editor Bridget Horan • Network with leaders in government, defence and commercial sectors Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria • Witness breathtaking aerobatics and static aircraft display Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Register now at www.singaporeairshow.com to visit the show! Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough To start building your show To book your space, contact: For the U.S. Pavilion, contact: Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production marketing plans, contact: Danny Soong / Cathryn Lee Michael Petrassi Terra Deskins Iain Blackhall [email protected] [email protected] Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint [email protected] Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 @OfficialSingaporeAirshow @SGAirshow OFFICIAL MEDIA PARTNER Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 OF THE SINGAPORE AIR SHOW @SingaporeAirshow #SGAirshow2020 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 Bureau Chiefs Auckland Adrian [email protected] Beijing Bradley Perrett [email protected] Cape Canaveral Irene Klotz [email protected] Chicago Lee Ann Shay [email protected] Frankfurt Jens Flottau [email protected] Houston Mark Carreau [email protected] Kuala Lumpur Marhalim Abas [email protected] London Tony Osborne [email protected] Los Angeles Guy Norris [email protected] Lyon Thierry Dubois [email protected] Moscow Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] New Delhi Jay Menon [email protected] Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected]

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4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/awst FLY ABOVE EXPECTATIONS Editor-In-Chief AT SINGAPORE AIRSHOW 2020 Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors As Asia’s largest aerospace and defence event, Singapore Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Airshow 2020 will play a crucial role in creating opportunities, Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] driving innovations and shaping the future of flight. Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, 5 reasons to visit aviation’s finest Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- • View exhibits from over 1,000 of the world’s leading aerospace companies Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, • Explore disruption solutions devised by entrepreneurial minds at What’s Next Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble startup showcase Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George • Gain insights from world-class though leaders at high-level conferences and Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt business forums including Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell - Singapore Airshow Aviation Leadership Summit (SAALS) Art Director Lisa Caputo - Next Generation MRO in a Digital World Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm - Changing the Game for Manufacturing - How New OEM Business Models are Rewriting Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, the Rule Book for Suppliers Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie - Lindbergh Innovation Forum Production Editor Bridget Horan • Network with leaders in government, defence and commercial sectors Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria • Witness breathtaking aerobatics and static aircraft display Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Register now at www.singaporeairshow.com to visit the show! Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough To start building your show To book your space, contact: For the U.S. Pavilion, contact: Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production marketing plans, contact: Danny Soong / Cathryn Lee Michael Petrassi Terra Deskins Iain Blackhall [email protected] [email protected] Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint [email protected] Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 @OfficialSingaporeAirshow @SGAirshow OFFICIAL MEDIA PARTNER Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 OF THE SINGAPORE AIR SHOW @SingaporeAirshow #SGAirshow2020 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 Bureau Chiefs Auckland Adrian [email protected] Beijing EXTREME Bradley Perrett [email protected] Cape Canaveral Irene Klotz [email protected] Advanced thermal management Chicago Lee Ann Shay [email protected] Frankfurt for extreme military environments Jens Flottau [email protected] Houston Mark Carreau [email protected] Kuala Lumpur Around the globe, military and aerospace systems designers Marhalim Abas [email protected] have turned to Meggitt to help them meet thermal and power London Tony Osborne [email protected] management challenges with compact, lightweight, and efficient Los Angeles vapor cycle systems, liquid cooling systems and components Guy Norris [email protected] Lyon including fans, pumps and compressors. Thierry Dubois [email protected] Moscow Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] Meggitt has developed cooling solutions for the most challenging New Delhi flight conditions, missions, and extreme environments. From Jay Menon [email protected] Paris low supersonic flight, to high hot wet hover, to desert and arctic Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] operations, our thermal management solutions are proven and Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] ready to meet the challenge of the more electronic platform and Wichita battlefield. Molly McMillin [email protected]

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www.meggittdefense.com Enabling the Extraordinary To Fly To Power To Live

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/awst FEEDBACK

RISING ABOVE BEHIND THE SCENES Your article “CEO Shuffle” about Boeing (Jan. 13-26, p. 22) touches on a France Bureau Chief sign of the times with any corporation Thierry Dubois in flux as it evolves into the first half experienced live electro­ of the 21st century. But Boeing was caught not having a deep bench. Many encephalography while line managers who came up through flying a Socata TB20 Boeing Commercial Airplanes are light single in Toulouse, to thought to be tainted by the 737 MAX. measure the workload on a The fixer CEO is going to have to be pilot’s brain during various the “perfect Renaissance individual”— phases of flight. His report with a firm vision of Boeing for the begins on page 31. future and a road map on how to lead the company there. The person will re- quire an awesome set of interpersonal FREDERIC DEHAIS/ISAE-SUPAERO skills because they will need to repair and suitably prepared for within ONLINE, the letter from the editor ti­ the very tarnished reputation of automated system instructions. If, on tled “After Muilenburg” (Jan. 13-26, p. 66) Boeing as a company, heal the employ- top of this, the selection of manual has drawn a number of comments: ees, fix the MAX, plan for a future new override itself entails a convoluted set midmarket airplane and, most import- of instructions, we have a recipe for JOSEPH.BRAUCH writes: ant, put the company back in the game disaster. In one report I read about Well written article, sir. I have met of making trusted airplanes based on the 737 MAX crashes, it appeared that Mr. Muilenburg on several occasions sound engineering design, vision, a manual override was possible only via and will attest, he was great for Boeing. command of innovation processes and a system that was an optional extra. However, your assertion on the Boeing’s a heck of a lot of luck. It is common knowledge now that culture is—in my opinion—the genesis of David Calhoun may be that person, airline pilot training entails more the problem. People preach culture . . . but but he now has a “stale by” date on time devoted to learning to operate they do listen when it really is time to his head, with an urgency to perform computerized cockpit systems and listen. Speaking up against a seasoned miracles. As Socrates said: “Man must far too little time on basic stick-and- executive at certain areas within Boeing rise above the Earth—to the top of rudder flying. Some reconsideration will get one black-balled very quickly. The the atmosphere and beyond—for only is necessary on the topic of the flight culture must change now. thus will he fully understand the world control of commercial aircraft—and in which he lives.” the training of aircrew. At this point, MSAROFF opines: I am inclined to drive from point A to McDonnell, an investment bank mas- James Sherrard, Plano, Texas point B. querading as an aviation company, took over Boeing with Boeing’s mon- MANDATORY MANUAL OVERRIDE David Green, Thornhill, Ontario ey, largely as a result of government After reading “Boeing 737 Pilots Focus pressure to merge during the 1990s. on Modified Procedures” (Dec. 23, A DISASTER WAITING TO HAPPEN? Stonecipher broke Boeing, and in 2019- Jan. 12, 2020, p. 12), I think that if Regarding “Nuclear Air Force?” order to fix it, it needs to go back to I were an airline pilot today, I might be (Nov. 25-Dec. 8, 2019, p. 52), I have seen being what Boeing was, a group of en- seriously considering a career change. several mentions of compact nuclear gineers masquerading as a company. At the very least, a prerequisite would power for remote military bases. This The financial engineering, stock be flying aircraft with an absolute is insane. Has the military fought so buybacks, etc., must end. minimum of computer-controlled many low-intensity wars that they flight/cockpit management systems, forget the enemy sometimes shoots where I would be able to quickly select back? Now every base would be a CORRECTION: full manual override by flipping a Chernobyl disaster waiting to happen. “Green Gambit” (Jan. 13-26, p. 38) simple and intuitive switch. A missile or anti-materiel sniper is all should have identified the aircraft All computer-controlled systems— it would take. Boeing acquired from Air China and whether for automated canned food Nuclear power is not a great idea transformed into an ecoDemonstra- production or flight management anyway, but for remote military out- tor as a 777-200. equipment—are software-controlled. posts, it couldn’t get much dumber. Experience has shown that soft- This correction was made to the article ware-code writers cannot be expected Dale Gibby, Columbus, Indiana online and in the Aviation Week archive. to think of every possible event that may require a predetermined set of instructions written into the program. Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, No checklist can be created by fallible 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: humans to ensure that every conceiv- [email protected] Letters may be edited for length and clarity; able possibility has been envisaged a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FEEDBACK WHO’S WHERE

RISING ABOVE BEHIND THE SCENES Your article “CEO Shuffle” about NASA has promoted Safe Flight Instrument Corp., a lift- board. He succeeds Enesa President/ Boeing (Jan. 13-26, p. 22) touches on a France Bureau Chief Robert Pearce to instrumentation and control-systems CEO Chico Pardo, who was lead direc- sign of the times with any corporation Thierry Dubois associate adminis- maker, has promoted tor in January 2016-20. The Aerospace Corp. has elected in flux as it evolves into the first half experienced live electro­ trator for the Aero- Maria Ferrara to vice of the 21st century. But Boeing was nautics Research president of manufac- three new board members: former vice caught not having a deep bench. Many encephalography while Mission Directorate. turing, a new position, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff line managers who came up through flying a Socata TB20 He was acting as- from director of qual- U.S. Air Force Gen. (ret.) Paul J. Selva; Boeing Commercial Airplanes are light single in Toulouse, to sociate administrator and has held ity assurance, during former Defense Department official thought to be tainted by the 737 MAX. measure the workload on a a number of strategic executive and which she oversaw Kathleen H. Hicks; and Massachusetts The fixer CEO is going to have to be pilot’s brain during various program management positions at Safe Flight’s AS9100 Institute of Technology professor and the “perfect Renaissance individual”— phases of flight. His report NASA. Pearce succeeds Jaiwon Shin, certification. Ferrara was BAE Sys- former NASA officialDava J. Newman. Platinum Tools has with a firm vision of Boeing for the begins on page 32. who has retired. tems’ lead quality assurance engineer. future and a road map on how to lead Wizz Air has hired Jourik Hooghe as Virgin Galactic has hired Michelle hired Scott Lipsett the company there. The person will re- executive vice president/chief finan- Kley as general counsel, secretary and as marketing manag- quire an awesome set of interpersonal FREDERIC DEHAIS/ISAE-SUPAERO cial officer. Hooghe had been with the executive vice president of legal. Kley er, succeeding Jason skills because they will need to repair and suitably prepared for within ONLINE, the letter from the editor ti­ Adecco Group. Wizz Air also promot- was senior vice president, chief legal/ Chesla, who recently the very tarnished reputation of automated system instructions. If, on tled “After Muilenburg” (Jan. 13-26, p. 66) ed Iain Wetherall to chief investment compliance officer and secretary at was named national Boeing as a company, heal the employ- top of this, the selection of manual has drawn a number of comments: officer, a new position; Wetherall was Maxar Technologies Inc. accounts manager. ees, fix the MAX, plan for a future new override itself entails a convoluted set chief financial officer. Triumph Group has promoted Thomas Lipsett was brand midmarket airplane and, most import- of instructions, we have a recipe for JOSEPH.BRAUCH writes: The Aerospace Corp. has promoted A. Quigley III to vice president of in- manager at Reactor ant, put the company back in the game disaster. In one report I read about Well written article, sir. I have met Todd Nygren to senior vice president of vestor relations and controller, from Watch. Before join- of making trusted airplanes based on the 737 MAX crashes, it appeared that Mr. Muilenburg on several occasions the engineering and technology group, corporate officer and controller. He ing Platinum Tools sound engineering design, vision, a manual override was possible only via and will attest, he was great for Boeing. which comprises 1,500 engineers and succeeds Michael Pici, who has left. as marketing man- command of innovation processes and a system that was an optional extra. However, your assertion on the Boeing’s scientists. Nygren has held multiple Airlines for Amer- ager in 2016, Chesla a heck of a lot of luck. It is common knowledge now that culture is—in my opinion—the genesis of leadership positions at the company ica has named Riva was a sales and mar- David Calhoun may be that person, airline pilot training entails more the problem. People preach culture . . . but including general manager and chief Khoshaba Parker keting consultant at but he now has a “stale by” date on time devoted to learning to operate they do listen when it really is time to engineer for addressing emerging na- vice president of LiveWire Innovation. his head, with an urgency to perform computerized cockpit systems and listen. Speaking up against a seasoned tional security threats. labor and employ- Lufthansa has added a board-level miracles. As Socrates said: “Man must far too little time on basic stick-and- executive at certain areas within Boeing Northrop Grumman has promoted ment/litigation. position for customer and corporate rise above the Earth—to the top of rudder flying. Some reconsideration will get one black-balled very quickly. The Lesley Kalan to corporate vice presi- Parker had worked responsibility, led by Brussels Airlines the atmosphere and beyond—for only is necessary on the topic of the flight culture must change now. dent and chief strategy and develop- at the Office of the CEO Christina Foerster. It has also thus will he fully understand the world control of commercial aircraft—and ment officer. Kalan was vice president Judge Advocate General of the U.S. appointed Thorsten Dirks to head the in which he lives.” the training of aircrew. At this point, MSAROFF opines: of government relations since Jan. 1, Army and helped create the Army’s new IT, digital and innovation depart- I am inclined to drive from point A to McDonnell, an investment bank mas- 2018, and vice president of legislative first nationwide labor litigation team. ment and Harry Hohmeister to lead the James Sherrard, Plano, Texas point B. querading as an aviation company, affairs since 2010. Ulla Lettijeff has been appointed commercial passenger airlines division. took over Boeing with Boeing’s mon- The American director of Helsinki Airport and a mem- Swiss International Airlines Chief MANDATORY MANUAL OVERRIDE David Green, Thornhill, Ontario ey, largely as a result of government Enterprise Institute ber of Finavia’s executive group, effec- Finanacial OfficerMichael Niggemann After reading “Boeing 737 Pilots Focus pressure to merge during the 1990s. (AEI) has named tive Feb. 6. Lettijeff has held several has joined the board for three years on Modified Procedures” (Dec. 23, A DISASTER WAITING TO HAPPEN? Stonecipher broke Boeing, and in Kori Schake a foreign managerial positions at Fiskars Group and taken over management of human 2019- Jan. 12, 2020, p. 12), I think that if Regarding “Nuclear Air Force?” order to fix it, it needs to go back to and defense policy and Nokia. resources and legal affiars. I were an airline pilot today, I might be (Nov. 25-Dec. 8, 2019, p. 52), I have seen being what Boeing was, a group of en- studies director and The DuPage Airport Authority of seriously considering a career change. several mentions of compact nuclear gineers masquerading as a company. resident scholar. She West Chicago, Illinois, has named Mark HONORS AND ELECTIONS At the very least, a prerequisite would power for remote military bases. This The financial engineering, stock succeeds Danielle Pletka, who remains Doles executive director. He succeeds Makenzie Lystrup be flying aircraft with an absolute is insane. Has the military fought so buybacks, etc., must end. an AEI senior fellow focused on the David Bird, who has retired. Doles was vice president/ minimum of computer-controlled many low-intensity wars that they Middle East and U.S. foreign policy. interim executive director. general manager of flight/cockpit management systems, forget the enemy sometimes shoots Schake was deputy director general of RTCA Inc. has made three board ap- civil space at Ball where I would be able to quickly select back? Now every base would be a CORRECTION: the International Institute for Strategic pointments: Nathan Boelkins, Michael Aerospace, has been full manual override by flipping a Chernobyl disaster waiting to happen. “Green Gambit” (Jan. 13-26, p. 38) Studies in London. Ingram and Lorne Cass. Boelkins heads elected a Fellow simple and intuitive switch. A missile or anti-materiel sniper is all should have identified the aircraft Airbus has created a new commu- Collins Aerospace commercial avionics; of the American All computer-controlled systems— it would take. Boeing acquired from Air China and nications and corporate affairs office Ingram is vice president/general man- Association for the whether for automated canned food Nuclear power is not a great idea transformed into an ecoDemonstra- whose leadership comprises: Maggie ager of Honeywell cockpit systems, and Advancement of Science in recognition of production or flight management anyway, but for remote military out- tor as a 777-200. Bergsma, head of communications for Cass is American Airlines operations/ her distinguished record in the fields of equipment—are software-controlled. posts, it couldn’t get much dumber. commercial aircraft; Yves Barille, head industry affairs vice president. planetary science and infrared astron- Experience has shown that soft- This correction was made to the article of communications for helicopters; D. Scott Davis has been named inde- omy, science policy and advocacy, and ware-code writers cannot be expected Dale Gibby, Columbus, Indiana online and in the Aviation Week archive. Dirk Erat, head of communications for pendent lead director of the Honeywell aerospace industry leadership. c to think of every possible event that defense and space; and Philipp Encz, may require a predetermined set of head of the company’s creative con- To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files (no instructions written into the program. Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, tent teams and internal and external PDFs) and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on No checklist can be created by fallible 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: communications. Guillaume Steuer companies and individuals listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence humans to ensure that every conceiv- [email protected] Letters may be edited for length and clarity; has been appointed head of external Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone able possibility has been envisaged a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required. communications, reporting to Encz. U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 7 FIRST

International Airlines Group has protested BAE Systems has proposed the $2.2 bil- TAKE to the UK government over assistance to lion purchase of Collins Aerospace’s For the latest, go to regional carrier Flybe, describing the res- military GPS business and Raytheon’s AVIATIONWEEK.COM cue effort for the Exeter, England-based airborne tactical radio division, to be di- airline as “a misuse of public funds.” vested as part of United Technologies’ merger with Raytheon. COMMERCIAL AVIATION Boeing is to start again with clean-sheet Leonardo has won another key U.S. de- design of its next commercial aircraft, fense program, receiving a $176 million says President and CEO David Calhoun, contract on Jan. 13 to supply the U.S. revisiting its new midmarket airplane Navy with 32 military trainer versions because of changes in the competitive of the AW119 light helicopter. playing field and a need to start with the flight control laws in the wake of the 737 Indonesian Aerospace rolled out an in- MAX crisis (page 20). digenously designed medium-altitude, long-endurace (MALE) UAV in late Embraer is targeting entry into service by U.S. NAVY December. Two prototypes are to fly in early 2026 for a turboprop airliner that DEFENSE 2020, with military certification planned would be developed under the planned Bell Boeing plans to deliver the U.S. Navy’s for 2023. joint venture with Boeing, says com- first of 44 CMV-22B carrier onboard mercial aircraft President and CEO delivery tiltrotors to the HX-21 test and The U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory’s John Slattery. evaluation squadron in early 2020 after Generation Orbit X-60A hypersonic completing a first flight in December. testbed has moved closer to flight after As it ramps up single-aisle production to 63 a month from 60, Airbus is to build VIEW FROM MONTREAL another final assembly line for the A321neo in Toulouse, in a plant created for the A380, production of which ends Exit Signs at Bombardier? in 2021. Is Bombardier poised to exit aviation? First, the Canadian compa- ny handed a majority stake in its C Series (now A220) passenger The FAA’s certification process is not fun- damentally flawed and “was followed” jet program to Airbus. Then it sold off its storied regional aircraft for the 737 MAX, but shortcomings in business, leaving it focused on business aviation and rail transport. guidance, global perspective, safety as- The five-year turnaround plan led by CEO Alain Bellemare has sessments and agency staffing should be addressed, says an independent com- shored up the company’s liquidity and cash flow, but a surprise an- mittee’s report. nouncement has cast doubt on that strategy ahead of Bombardier’s release of full-year results on Feb. 13. Israeli startup Eviation’s prototype Alice all-electric regional airliner caught The company says it is “reassessing future participation” in the fire during ground testing at Prescott A220 partnership and “actively pursuing alternatives” to accelerate Regional Airport in Arizona on Jan. paydown of its $9 billion debt load. “We speculate that the company 23. Eviation believes a ground battery being used for the test caused the fire. may be looking at strategic alternatives that could include the sale of one of its two remaining divisions,” National Bank of Canada Finan- Japanese automaker Toyota has led a cial Markets analyst Cameron Doerksen wrote in a research note to $590 million investment round at elec- tric vertical-takeoff-and-landing air taxi clients. “The most obvious candidate would be its aviation business.” startup Joby Aviation, contributing $394 Airbus controls the A220 program, but Bombardier is on the million and its manufacturing expertise hook for about 40% of its costs after it completes an investment (page 15). commitment of $925 million. “Keeping up with the cost growth A modified A350-1000 performed auto- is probably not an option, and so it is likely Bombardier will exit mated takeoffs at Toulouse in December the joint venture with only a fraction of the $2 billion at which it is using a computer vision system as part of Airbus’ Autonomous Taxi, Takeoff currently valued,” writes JP Morgan analyst Seth Seifman. and Landing project. Whatever move the company makes will require the blessing of the Beaudoin family, which owns just 12.2% of Bombardier’s equity Fluid- and motion-control systems supplier Woodward and materials leader Hexcel but has 50.9% of voting rights through a special class of stock. “The plan a stock merger to create one of the Beaudoin-Bombardier family’s views are a key variable in how this largest independent aerospace and de- situation will evolve,” Seifman says. fense suppliers (page 32).

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST 43 GALLON TANK 2 HOUR FLIGHT ENDURANCE MILES* OVER 200 NAUTICAL OR R66 OPTIONAL AUX FUEL TANKS Contact Your Local Robinson Dealer Contact Your 23 GALLON TANK 1 HOUR FLIGHT ENDURANCE OVER 100 NAUTICAL MILES* OVER 100 NAUTICAL Optional Aux Fuel Tanks Extend Optional Aux Fuel Tanks to 5 Hours Flight Endurance Up Fly Long Long Fly Fly Far TURBINE *Actual flight endurance and mileage may vary. © Robinson Helicopter Company. R66 is a registered trademark of Robinson Helicopter Company Helicopter Company. © Robinson *Actual flight endurance and mileage may vary.

- an in- the $2.2 bil- key U.S. de U.S. key AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST The U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory’s Research Air Force The U.S. BAE Systems has BAE Systems proposed has Leonardo won another Indonesian rolled Aerospace out digenously digenously designed medium-altitude, long-endurace (MALE) in UAV late prototypes are to Two fly in December. planned certification military with 2020, 2023. for fense program, receiving a $176 million $176 a receiving program, fense on contract 13 Jan. to supply the U.S. with Navy 32 military trainer versions helicopter. light of the AW119 lion lion purchase of Collins Aerospace’s military GPS business and Raytheon’s di- be to division, radio tactical airborne vested as part of Technologies’ United with Raytheon. merger Generation Generation Orbit X-60A hypersonic testbed has moved closer to flight after - U.S. NAVY has protested has the U.S. Navy’s Navy’s U.S. the The five-year turnaround plan led by CEO Alain Bellemare has by CEO Alain Bellemare plan led turnaround The five-year the in participation” future it is “reassessing says The company is on the but Bombardier A220 program, the controls Airbus the blessing of will require makes the company move Whatever Exit Signs at Bombardier? - compa the Canadian First, aviation? poised to exit Bombardier Is A220) passenger in its C Series (now stake handed a majority ny regional aircraft Then it sold off its storied to Airbus. jet program transport. and rail aviation on business it focused business, leaving but a surprise an- and cash flow, liquidity up the company’s shored of Bombardier’s ahead strategy has cast doubt on that nouncement 13. on Feb. results of full-year release to accelerate alternatives” pursuing and “actively A220 partnership the company that speculate “We of its $9 billion debt load. paydown include the sale of could that alternatives strategic be looking at may - Finan Bank of Canada National divisions,” remaining one of its two note to in a research wrote Doerksen Cameron analyst cial Markets business.” be its aviation would candidate clients. “The most obvious an investment after it completes about 40% of its costs hook for growth up with the cost million. “Keeping of $925 commitment will exit Bombardier not an option, and so it is likely is probably it is which of the $2 billion at with only a fraction the joint venture analyst Seth Seifman. writes JP Morgan valued,” currently equity just 12.2% of Bombardier’s owns which the Beaudoin family, a special class of stock. “The through rights of voting but has 50.9% this in how variable a key are views family’s Beaudoin-Bombardier Seifman says. will evolve,” situation VIEW VIEW FROM MONTREAL to the UK government over assistance to assistance over government UK the to res the describing Flybe, carrier regional England-based forthe Exeter, cue effort funds.” misuse of public as “a airline International Airlines Group Airlines International DEFENSE deliver to plans Boeing Bell first first of 44 carrier CMV-22B onboard andtest HX-21 the to tiltrotors delivery after 2020 early in squadron evaluation in December. flight a first completing

- - to by auto

is not fun- not is has led a with clean-sheet For the latest, go to go to the latest, For AVIATIONWEEK.COM TAKE FIRST FIRST early 2026 for a turboprop airliner that that airliner turboprop a for 2026 early planned the under developed be would joint venture with says - com Boeing, mercial aircraft President and CEO Slattery. John damentally andflawed followed” “was for the MAX, 737 but shortcomings in - as safety perspective, global guidance, sessments and staffing agency should - com independent an says addressed, be report. mittee’s $590 $590 million round investment at elec- taxi air vertical-takeoff-and-landing tric $394 contributing Aviation, Joby startup million expertise and its manufacturing 15). (page Israeli startup Eviation’s prototype Alice prototype Israeli startup Eviation’s Japanese automaker Toyota performed A modified A350-1000 supplier systems motion-control and Fluid- 2020 9, 27-FEBRUARY TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY WEEK & SPACE 8 AVIATION COMMERCIAL AVIATION COMMERCIAL Boeing is to start again service into entry targeting is Embraer As it up ramps single-aisle production process certification FAA’s The mated takeoffs at Toulouse in December in Toulouse at takeoffs mated part as system vision computer a using of Airbus’ Autonomous Takeoff Taxi, and Landing project. 63 a month Airbus is from 60, to build another final assembly line for the in a plant created A321neo in Toulouse, production the for of A380, which ends in 2021. all-electric regional airliner caught fire during ground testing at Prescott Regional Airport in Arizona on Jan. 23. Eviation believes a ground battery the test caused the fire. being used for Hexcel leader materials and Woodward the of one create to merger stock a plan and de independent aerospace largest 32). (page suppliers fense design of its next commercial aircraft, Calhoun, David CEO and President says revisiting its airplane new midmarket because of in changes the competitive the with start to need a and field playing 737 the of wake the in laws control flight 20). MAX crisis (page FIRST TAKE MIXED FORTUNES 266 265 an integrated vehicle propulsion system Commercial Helicopter test at Cecil Spaceport in Florida. 209 Deliveries, 2019 vs. 2018

DYNETICS 168 2019 Total: 629 129 119 2018 Total: 646

68 49 Dynetics has conducted the first test flight of the X-61A Gremlins Air Vehicle un- 13 der a DARPA program to demonstrate 8 3 9 airborne launch and recovery of un- Airbus Bell Leonardo Robinson Sikorsky Others manned aircraft systems. Source: Daniel Williams/Aviation Week Intelligence Network

Airbus Helicopters held on to its lead in 2019, but Bell saw good growth as overall com-

LEONARDO mercial turbine helicopter deliveries declined in 2019 amid a continued tough market for heavier aircraft. Our helicopter industry coverage begins on page 42.

ed it to integrate and demonstrate the DASSAULT AVIATION Operational Fires surface-to-surface weapon system. Leonardo flew its Falco Xplorer MALE unmanned aircraft for the first time on Boeing, with the CH-47F, and Sikorsky, Jan. 15, from Trapani air base, Italy. with the CH-53K, have submitted pro- posals for Germany’s STH requirement Lockheed Martin has won its sixth prime for 44-60 heavy-lift helicopters to re- contractor role in a U.S. hypersonic place its CH-53G Stallions. The award missile program as DARPA has select- is expected in 2021.

France has awarded Dassault and Thales a contract to develop the Archange sig- 40 YEARS AGO IN AVIATION WEEK nals-intelligence platform. Based on the The first test flight of the Ariane launch Falcon 8X business jet, three aircraft are to replace two C-160 Gabriel platforms. vehicle took place on Dec. 24, 1979, but it took more than a month for Aviation Week SPACE to publish photos. Our Jan. 28, 1980, cover A SpaceX Falcon 9 lifted off from Kennedy featured a color image of the three-stage, Space Center on Jan. 19 and intention- all-liquid-fueled Ariane 1 lifting off from ally shut down 85 sec. later, setting the the European Space Agency’s spaceport stage for a 131,000-ft. (40-km), Mach 2.2 at Kourou, French Guiana. The mission test of the Dragon capsule launch escape system, the last major milestone before successfully placed a test satellite in a crewed flight test to the International geostationary transfer orbit. Two months Space Station as early as April (page 37). later, Arianespace was established as “the world’s first commercial space transporta- OBITUARY tion company,” and in late 1981 received its Walter Boyne, prolific aviationwriter/his - first commercial launch contract from GTE torian, died on Jan. 9 in Silver Spring, Spacenet. Entering 2020, the company has Maryland. He was 90. A U.S. Air Force bomber and test pilot from 1951-74, Col. launched 449 satellites over 40 years. Boyne was later appointed director of the National Air and Space Museum. Read every issue of Aviation Week back to 1916 at: archive.aviationweek.com He served as chairman of the National Aeronautic Association from 2006-14. c

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FIRST TAKE FAST FIVE WITH HONEYWELL MIXED FORTUNES 266 265 an integrated vehicle propulsion system Commercial Helicopter test at Cecil Spaceport in Florida. Why don’t airlines provide free Wi-Fi? What does Honeywell 209 Deliveries, 2019 vs. 2018 A. Current satellite capacity remains a precious off er to secure Wi-Fi commodity. High-defi nition products consume so much connectivity for crews

DYNETICS 168 2019 Total: 629 of that capacity that for all passengers to have a quality and passengers? JOHN PETERSON experience, there has to be some usage limits. We have A. We’re an innovator VP and General Manager 129 2018 Total: 646 Software Services 119 developed creative ways to manage that capacity, so in how to handle cyber Honeywell Connected Enterprise passengers can stay connected in a responsible way. security using active John Peterson leads the software By 2024-2026, there will be an exponential change in onboard threat detection 68 and services portfolio to create terms of capacity but also in passenger expectations. on the aircraft. Our software solutions, cabin services 49 and connectivity for aircraft Dynetics has conducted the first test flight Airlines and aircraft operators that get the connected surveillance software and passengers. of the X-61A Gremlins Air Vehicle un- aircraft right will enjoy a competitive advantage. ensures that people 8 9 13 der a DARPA program to demonstrate 3 getting on the aircraft don’t bring along a device that has airborne launch and recovery of un- Airbus Bell Leonardo Robinson Sikorsky Others Why is Honeywell an important technology player a bug that could aff ect other passengers and certainly manned aircraft systems. Source: Daniel Williams/Aviation Week Intelligence Network in aircraft connectivity? not the fl ying system. When a threat is detected, we A. When you talk to airliners or bizjet OEMs who want notify the airline’s IT department, so they can decide Airbus Helicopters held on to its lead in 2019, but Bell saw good growth as overall com-

LEONARDO mercial turbine helicopter deliveries declined in 2019 amid a continued tough market for to make things more reliable, they turn to us because how to act upon it. From there, we off er them the ability heavier aircraft. Our helicopter industry coverage begins on page 42. Honeywell is the natural fi t for delivering a packet of data to shut down services, block devices and further fi lter and getting it routed properly. That is a very complex, or shape traffi c, so people are less likely to do malicious sophisticated pathway and Honeywell knows all the or predatory things. ed it to integrate and demonstrate the DASSAULT AVIATION links along that path—sensors, data buses, routers, Operational Fires surface-to-surface satellite links, global ground network and analytical What do you believe 2020 will bring to the connected weapon system. tools to generate alerts or provide guidance on fi xing aircraft and the industry? Leonardo flew its Falco Xplorer MALE problems. We have done unprecedented work over the A. Ninety percent of our engineering hiring is in unmanned aircraft for the first time on Boeing, with the CH-47F, and Sikorsky, past three years to pull that pathway together. software. We are getting candidates who are finding Jan. 15, from Trapani air base, Italy. with the CH-53K, have submitted pro- posals for Germany’s STH requirement how fun it is to be part of this as Honeywell shifts from Lockheed Martin has won its sixth prime for 44-60 heavy-lift helicopters to re- What is Honeywell Forge and how can it help airlines a traditional industrial company to what you would only contractor role in a U.S. hypersonic place its CH-53G Stallions. The award off er free in-fl ight Wi-Fi? see in some of the most innovative software companies. missile program as DARPA has select- is expected in 2021. A. An airline has three key paths to be competitive We’re going to bring forward a 500% to 700% and gain advantage—best ticket price, best on-time reduction in cost to collect and offload data from France has awarded Dassault and Thales a contract to develop the Archange sig- performance, best passenger experience, which includes aircraft. 40 YEARS AGO IN AVIATION WEEK nals-intelligence platform. Based on the connectivity. If there’s a single thing that makes all With Honeywell Forge, all the connectivity pieces

The first test flight of the Ariane launch Falcon 8X business jet, three aircraft are three come together, that’s data, data going through are designed to fi t together and deliver real value to to replace two C-160 Gabriel platforms. vehicle took place on Dec. 24, 1979, but it the aircraft network. the aviation industry. We have met with dozens of Honeywell designed the network in order to maximize airline customers and hundreds of aircraft operators took more than a month for Aviation Week SPACE to publish photos. Our Jan. 28, 1980, cover A SpaceX Falcon 9 lifted off from Kennedy the value it provides to operators. It provides better in 2019. Through their input, we continue to develop featured a color image of the three-stage, Space Center on Jan. 19 and intention- service to passengers and at the same time allows us our platform and overall vision. Our customers have all-liquid-fueled Ariane 1 lifting off from ally shut down 85 sec. later, setting the to process important sensor data from the brakes, the already started initiatives for 2020 which rely heavily the European Space Agency’s spaceport stage for a 131,000-ft. (40-km), Mach 2.2 APU and all the other aircraft subsystems. We aren’t on our new software platform, our connectivity at Kourou, French Guiana. The mission test of the Dragon capsule launch escape giving the airlines a terabyte of data on everything; hardware, and our services. It’ll be a very exciting year system, the last major milestone before successfully placed a test satellite in a crewed flight test to the International we are giving them insight on the factors that drive for all of us and certainly an experience that few could geostationary transfer orbit. Two months Space Station as early as April (page 37). their specifi c key performance indicators. The result is have predicted even 18 months ago! later, Arianespace was established as “the lower maintenance costs, reduced fuel consumption, world’s first commercial space transporta- OBITUARY fewer operational disruptions which all contribute Learn more about Honeywell’s initiatives here. tion company,” and in late 1981 received its Walter Boyne, prolific aviationwriter/his - to the passenger experience. That’s all part of torian, died on Jan. 9 in Silver Spring, first commercial launch contract from GTE Honeywell Forge. Spacenet. Entering 2020, the company has Maryland. He was 90. A U.S. Air Force bomber and test pilot from 1951-74, Col. launched 449 satellites over 40 years. Boyne was later appointed director of Sponsored Content by the National Air and Space Museum. Read every issue of Aviation Week back to 1916 at: archive.aviationweek.com He served as chairman of the National Aeronautic Association from 2006-14. c

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY UP FRONT KEVIN MICHAELS

BOEING’S SHUTDOWN OF 737 MAX 737 MAX Supply Chain Vulnerability production is the issue of the day for com- Shipset Supplier mercial aerospace. This decisive move, Segment Estimate coupled with a company recommendation (U.S. $ million) Vulnerability that pilots undergo full flight-simulator training prior to its return to service—and the fact that there are just 34 A $10-12 simulators in the global inventory—means we could be facing a production shutdown of at least 3-6 months. What are the implications for the supply chain? Which A E 7-9 suppliers are most vulnerable and why? Aerostructures, which has an estimated shipset value of $10-12 million on the MAX, is by far the most vulnerable 5-6 segment. Profitability for these suppliers—typically in the single digits—is closely linked to production volume, and aftermarket revenue is limited. Spirit AeroSystems, A 1.5-2 which derives 50% of its revenue from making the MAX fuselage, has already announced layoffs of 2,800 em- ployees at its Wichita facililities, with more to follow. 5-6 Ducommun, which depends on the MAX for nearly 20% of its business, is another vulnerable Tier 1 supplier. SOURCE: AERODYNAMIC ADVISORY The real concern in aerostructures is with hundreds Aircraft systems and components—hydraulic, fuel, of subtier aerostructures suppliers, many located in the pneumatic components and the like—are worth an esti- Wichita-Dallas/Fort Worth central U.S. aerospace cor- mated $5-6 million per MAX aircraft. Major suppliers in- ridor. OEM supply-chain initiatives like Partnering for clude Collins Aerospace, Honeywell, Safran, Eaton Corp. Success have extended payment terms to 90-120 days and Meggitt. Like aero-engine OEMs, these suppliers or more. This effectively sucked the working capital support a diverse group of civil and military platforms and can lean on a healthy aftermarket revenue stream for profitibility. A typical component OEM derives 35-40% of MAX Production Shutdown its revenue from the aftermarket. Subtier suppliers mak- Which suppliers are most vulnerable? ing engineered components, forgings, castings and such could feel more impact than the OEMs in this sector. out of many suppliers, making them highly vulnerable Major avionics OEMs will be fine, as the majority of to production slowdowns. On top of this, Tier 2 and 3 the MAX’s avionics content is supplied by Collins and aerostructures suppliers were tasked with capitalizing Honeywell. GE Aviation and BAE Systems are also for a MAX production rate of 57 per month before the notable avionics suppliers but part of much larger cor- trouble began. We could see many failures here. This porations. With a MAX avionics shipset value of $1.5-2 means Boeing and its major Tier 1 suppliers must estab- million, the loss of some $80-100 million in avionics de- lish a support program—perhaps maintaining low-rate mand per month will hurt, but avionics suppliers are less production for the most vulnerable suppliers. Tier 4 raw vulnerable than any other segment. material and forging/casting suppliers will also be affect- Finally, what about interiors and inflight entertain- ed. Moody’s estimates that Precision Castparts derives ment? Major suppliers include Collins, Safran, Pana- more than 10% of its revenue from the MAX. sonic, Thales and Boeing itself. Like aerostructures, What about aero engines? CFM International profitability is closely linked with volume, and losing 52 joint-venture partners Safran and GE Aviation, which shipsets per month will be painful. Larger suppliers can are not paid until engines are delivered, have effectively handle a 3-6 month shutdown, but as in the aerostruc- funded the Leap 1B engines produced since last March. tures segment, subtier-parts suppliers are vulnerable. CFM paid its suppliers along the way. While it is pain- In summary, a 3-6-month pause will yield carnage that ful, Safran and GE can absorb a 3-6-month production Boeing and its Tier 1 partners must proactively man- halt. They have a healthy portfolio of military and busi- age to ensure production ecosystem viability. The irony ness aviation engine programs, can shift production to of the situation is that since launching Partnership for the Leap 1A and derive most of their profits from the af- Success in 2013, Boeing’s relationship with its suppliers termarket. The production shutdown will actually stim- has been characterized more by conflict and unlilateral ulate aftermarket demand for legacy CFM56 engines, demands than partnership. Boeing CEO David Calhoun which could grow at a high-single-digit rate in the near would do well to use this crisis as an opportunity to reset future. Like aerostructures, the real concern in the ae- supplier relations to ensure long-term mutual success. c ro-engine supply chain is with subtier suppliers. Many are highly dependent on the Leap programs, and they do Contributing columnist Kevin Michaels is managing director of not benefit from aftermarket profits. AeroDynamic Advisory in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY UP FRONT KEVIN MICHAELS

BOEING’S SHUTDOWN OF 737 MAX 737 MAX Supply Chain Vulnerability production is the issue of the day for com- Shipset Supplier mercial aerospace. This decisive move, Segment Estimate coupled with a company recommendation (U.S. $ million) Vulnerability that pilots undergo full flight-simulator training prior to March 30 - April 2, 2020 its return to service—and the fact that there are just 34 A $10-12 simulators in the global inventory—means we could be facing a production shutdown of at least 3-6 months. What are the implications for the supply chain? Which A E 7-9 suppliers are most vulnerable and why? Aerostructures, which has an estimated shipset value of $10-12 million on the MAX, is by far the most vulnerable 5-6 segment. Profitability for these suppliers—typically in the single digits—is closely linked to production volume, and aftermarket revenue is limited. Spirit AeroSystems, A 1.5-2 which derives 50% of its revenue from making the MAX fuselage, has already announced layoffs of 2,800 em- ployees at its Wichita facililities, with more to follow. 5-6 Ducommun, which depends on the MAX for nearly 20% of its business, is another vulnerable Tier 1 supplier. SOURCE: AERODYNAMIC ADVISORY The real concern in aerostructures is with hundreds Aircraft systems and components—hydraulic, fuel, of subtier aerostructures suppliers, many located in the pneumatic components and the like—are worth an esti- Wichita-Dallas/Fort Worth central U.S. aerospace cor- mated $5-6 million per MAX aircraft. Major suppliers in- ridor. OEM supply-chain initiatives like Partnering for clude Collins Aerospace, Honeywell, Safran, Eaton Corp. Success have extended payment terms to 90-120 days and Meggitt. Like aero-engine OEMs, these suppliers or more. This effectively sucked the working capital support a diverse group of civil and military platforms and can lean on a healthy aftermarket revenue stream for profitibility. A typical component OEM derives 35-40% of MAX Production Shutdown its revenue from the aftermarket. Subtier suppliers mak- Which suppliers are most vulnerable? ing engineered components, forgings, castings and such could feel more impact than the OEMs in this sector. out of many suppliers, making them highly vulnerable Major avionics OEMs will be fine, as the majority of to production slowdowns. On top of this, Tier 2 and 3 the MAX’s avionics content is supplied by Collins and aerostructures suppliers were tasked with capitalizing Honeywell. GE Aviation and BAE Systems are also for a MAX production rate of 57 per month before the notable avionics suppliers but part of much larger cor- trouble began. We could see many failures here. This porations. With a MAX avionics shipset value of $1.5-2 means Boeing and its major Tier 1 suppliers must estab- million, the loss of some $80-100 million in avionics de- lish a support program—perhaps maintaining low-rate mand per month will hurt, but avionics suppliers are less production for the most vulnerable suppliers. Tier 4 raw vulnerable than any other segment. material and forging/casting suppliers will also be affect- Finally, what about interiors and inflight entertain- ed. Moody’s estimates that Precision Castparts derives ment? Major suppliers include Collins, Safran, Pana- more than 10% of its revenue from the MAX. sonic, Thales and Boeing itself. Like aerostructures, What about aero engines? CFM International profitability is closely linked with volume, and losing 52 joint-venture partners Safran and GE Aviation, which shipsets per month will be painful. Larger suppliers can are not paid until engines are delivered, have effectively handle a 3-6 month shutdown, but as in the aerostruc- funded the Leap 1B engines produced since last March. tures segment, subtier-parts suppliers are vulnerable. CFM paid its suppliers along the way. While it is pain- In summary, a 3-6-month pause will yield carnage that ful, Safran and GE can absorb a 3-6-month production Boeing and its Tier 1 partners must proactively man- halt. They have a healthy portfolio of military and busi- age to ensure production ecosystem viability. The irony ness aviation engine programs, can shift production to of the situation is that since launching Partnership for Register Early for Best Savings! the Leap 1A and derive most of their profits from the af- Success in 2013, Boeing’s relationship with its suppliers termarket. The production shutdown will actually stim- has been characterized more by conflict and unlilateral ulate aftermarket demand for legacy CFM56 engines, demands than partnership. Boeing CEO David Calhoun SpaceSymposium.org which could grow at a high-single-digit rate in the near would do well to use this crisis as an opportunity to reset future. Like aerostructures, the real concern in the ae- supplier relations to ensure long-term mutual success. c ro-engine supply chain is with subtier suppliers. Many are highly dependent on the Leap programs, and they do Contributing columnist Kevin Michaels is managing director of +1.800.691.4000 not benefit from aftermarket profits. AeroDynamic Advisory in Ann Arbor, Michigan. +1.800.691.4000+1.800.691.4Share:000 12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY GOING CONCERNS MICHAEL BRUNO

A LITTLE MORE THAN TWO YEARS pected midyear, the roughly $765 million cash infusion ago, then-Canada-based MacDonald, Dett- should cut Maxar’s debt load around 24% and bring its wiler and Associates—better known as net debt-to-pretax-earnings ratio down to 5.24X from MDA—closed on its acquisition of U.S.- around 6.64X. based DigitalGlobe and announced a major transition Weeks before, Maxar closed an expected sale-lease- to a U.S.-headquartered space conglomerate focused back on its key campus in Palo Alto, California, for $291 on Washington customers. Analysts applauded the million. The company signed a 10-year agreement to move as both transformational for MDA and one that continue using the primary facilities there for satellite marked the rise of the commercial space economy. manufacturing, research and development. Palo Alto has been the home of Maxar’s legacy SSL subsidiary. “This transaction—when combined with the re- cently completed sale of real estate in Palo Alto—re- Star-Crossed duces Maxar’s overall debt by more than $1 billion How MDA became Maxar and then sold MDA and significantly reduces Maxar’s leverage ratio,” Maxar Chief Financial Officer Biggs Porter said after So much for that idea. On the penultimate day of the MDA announcement. “Also, the loss of future cash 2019, Maxar Technologies, as the company is now flow from MDA will be significantly offset by interest known, unveiled a deal to sell its MDA Canadian savings from the reduction of debt.” space subsidiary to a group of private equity inves- That may be so, but Porter was not kidding when tors led by Northern Private Capital for about $765 he acknowledged the lost juice. Analysts called MDA million. a high-quality asset responsible for almost 11% of No one saw that coming when MDA bought Digital- Maxar’s annual revenue stream. And while the Palo Globe, itself the end result of a rollup last decade of Alto deal monetizes the property to pay for imme- commercial space imagery providers including Geo- diate demands, the company must pay to increase Eye. Part of the investment proposal back then had worker morale. About 16% of the original campus was been the combined company’s breadth across space sold a little more than year ago, and the employee at- businesses, from building geostationary satellites for trition rate skyrocketed as high as 20% for obvious communications customers to providing intelligence reasons. Attrition there since has dropped below San photographs to the U.S. intelligence community. But Francisco/Silicon Valley Bay Area averages, Porter the best-laid plans sometimes do not work out, and said in early December. they certainly did not for MDA-turned-Maxar. Instead, the sell-off serves as the climax of Westmin- ster, Colorado-based Maxar’s annus horribilis. A year WE’RE NOT EMOTIONALLY OR RELIGIOUSLY ATTACHED that started with the loss of an anchor satellite and “ continued with sudden management turnover, layoffs TO ANYTHING IN THE BUSINESS.” and lingering doubts about whether geosat manufac- turing would ever recover. By autumn, top executives — DAN JABLONSKY, MAXAR CEO were openly advertising that practically anything was for sale for the right price, as they sought to stabilize the corporation’s balance sheet. “We continue to get asked what else we might do; Nevertheless, no one involved in MDA or Max- we continue to look at all alternatives,” CEO Dan ar is likely to forget the past few years. “Over that Jablonsky told an investor conference at the start of two-plus-year period, we’ve seen extremes from the December. “We’re not emotionally or religiously at- potential for great promise for the stock to points of tached to anything in the business.” despair, given what was perceived to be a debilitating Long rumored, the MDA sale was no surprise. It debt load,” said National Bank of Canada Financial includes all of MDA’s Canadian businesses—once the Markets analyst Richard Tse. company’s core assets—encompassing ground sta- Assuming the turnaround works, and Maxar goes tions, radar satellite products, robotics, defense and on as a viable space services company, it will be inter- satellite components, representing 1,900 employees. esting to see if there are lessons learned for the wider It further entails certain radar-related imagery sales space sector. that have historically been included in Maxar’s imag- For his part, Tse —perhaps the most well-acquaint- ery segment. ed analyst covering Maxar dating to its more humble “We think the recently announced MDA sale sig- MDA days —admits a reason to reassess. In a Dec. 31 nificantly derisks the Maxar story by meaningfully investor note, he wrote: “The promise of synergies reducing the likelihood of a liquidity crunch,” Credit touted by the former merger definitely raises ques- Suisse analysts Rob Spingarn and Scott Deuschle said tions in regard to the strategic decision-making by in a Jan. 15 investor note. Once closed, which is ex- the company.” c

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY COMMENTARY GOING CONCERNS LEADING EDGE MICHAEL BRUNO GRAHAM WARWICK

A LITTLE MORE THAN TWO YEARS pected midyear, the roughly $765 million cash infusion “CLOSER THAN YOU THINK” IS A demonstrator flew in 2012; Joby began flight-test- ago, then-Canada-based MacDonald, Dett- should cut Maxar’s debt load around 24% and bring its an unofficial mantra of the nascent ur- ing the S4 in 2017 and applied for FAA certification late wiler and Associates—better known as net debt-to-pretax-earnings ratio down to 5.24X from ban air mobility (UAM) industry, and in 2018. The 2.1 version now flying (pictured) “is near MDA—closed on its acquisition of U.S.- around 6.64X. two events in the first weeks of 2020 to the vehicle we want to operate,” says Sciarra. The based DigitalGlobe and announced a major transition Weeks before, Maxar closed an expected sale-lease- underline the progress made in little more than a piloted five-seater has a cruise speed of 200 mph and to a U.S.-headquartered space conglomerate focused back on its key campus in Palo Alto, California, for $291 decade. a range of up to 150 mi. on a single battery charge. “We on Washington customers. Analysts applauded the million. The company signed a 10-year agreement to On Jan. 6, South Korean carmaker Hyundai unveiled are not assuming any improvement in cells from what move as both transformational for MDA and one that continue using the primary facilities there for satellite its electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) air we are using now,” he says. marked the rise of the commercial space economy. manufacturing, research and development. Palo Alto taxi concept and a plan to invest $1.5 billion in UAM Joby plans to own and fly the vehicles on behalf of has been the home of Maxar’s legacy SSL subsidiary. over the next five years. On Jan. 15, U.S. startup Joby Uber, under its own Part 135 air-taxi operating certif- “This transaction—when combined with the re- Aviation revealed its production prototype cently completed sale of real estate in Palo Alto—re- and a $394 million investment by automaker Star-Crossed duces Maxar’s overall debt by more than $1 billion Toyota, which will also provide its manufac- How MDA became Maxar and then sold MDA and significantly reduces Maxar’s leverage ratio,” turing expertise to the eVTOL developer. Credible Progress Maxar Chief Financial Officer Biggs Porter said after For Uber, which ignited the eVTOL market Automaker involvement boosts UAM prospects So much for that idea. On the penultimate day of the MDA announcement. “Also, the loss of future cash in 2016 with its vision for the Elevate urban 2019, Maxar Technologies, as the company is now flow from MDA will be significantly offset by interest aerial ride-sharing service, the announce- known, unveiled a deal to sell its MDA Canadian savings from the reduction of debt.” ments are a major boost. Performance space subsidiary to a group of private equity inves- That may be so, but Porter was not kidding when and noise figures from flight tests of Joby’s tors led by Northern Private Capital for about $765 he acknowledged the lost juice. Analysts called MDA all-electric aircraft show the vehicle capa- million. a high-quality asset responsible for almost 11% of bilities required to begin limited commercial No one saw that coming when MDA bought Digital- Maxar’s annual revenue stream. And while the Palo service in 2023 can be met with available bat- Globe, itself the end result of a rollup last decade of Alto deal monetizes the property to pay for imme- tery technology. And involvement of two of commercial space imagery providers including Geo- diate demands, the company must pay to increase the world’s largest carmakers holds promise Eye. Part of the investment proposal back then had worker morale. About 16% of the original campus was that urban air taxi operations can be scaled been the combined company’s breadth across space sold a little more than year ago, and the employee at- to large volumes beginning in 2025. businesses, from building geostationary satellites for trition rate skyrocketed as high as 20% for obvious “Three years ago, we presented a crazy communications customers to providing intelligence reasons. Attrition there since has dropped below San white paper here,” Mark Moore, director of photographs to the U.S. intelligence community. But Francisco/Silicon Valley Bay Area averages, Porter aviation for Uber Elevate, told the Vertical the best-laid plans sometimes do not work out, and said in early December. Flight Society’s Transformative Vertical they certainly did not for MDA-turned-Maxar. Flight conference in San Jose, California, on Instead, the sell-off serves as the climax of Westmin- Jan. 21. “Today, we are right on target, exe- ster, Colorado-based Maxar’s annus horribilis. A year WE’RE NOT EMOTIONALLY OR RELIGIOUSLY ATTACHED cuting exactly what we said in that white pa- that started with the loss of an anchor satellite and “ per. Joby’s stunning vehicle shows the capa- continued with sudden management turnover, layoffs bilities we are after are very real.” TO ANYTHING IN THE BUSINESS.” JOBY AVIATION and lingering doubts about whether geosat manufac- But to ex-NASA eVTOL pioneer Moore, turing would ever recover. By autumn, top executives — DAN JABLONSKY, MAXAR CEO Hyundai’s announcement may have even more signif- icate. “We are working on that already,” says Sciarra. were openly advertising that practically anything was icance. It was Google that began developing driver- For both safety and customer adoption, the aircraft for sale for the right price, as they sought to stabilize less cars, he points out. A handful of automakers then will be piloted. “It is not yet clear how fully autono- the corporation’s balance sheet. started working on the technology, and now the entire mous passenger operations can be certified,” he says. “We continue to get asked what else we might do; Nevertheless, no one involved in MDA or Max- automotive industry is investing billions of dollars in “We wanted to get out as quickly as possible before the we continue to look at all alternatives,” CEO Dan ar is likely to forget the past few years. “Over that self-driving vehicles. Within five years, he expects ev- rules are fully set.” Jablonsky told an investor conference at the start of two-plus-year period, we’ve seen extremes from the ery carmaker to be involved in UAM. Operating the vehicles “will allow us to bearhug December. “We’re not emotionally or religiously at- potential for great promise for the stock to points of Secretive Joby took an early lead in developing an the safety early on,” says Sciarra. “We will be able to tached to anything in the business.” despair, given what was perceived to be a debilitating eVTOL air taxi, using computer modeling and subscale choose where and when to operate.” The company is Long rumored, the MDA sale was no surprise. It debt load,” said National Bank of Canada Financial prototypes to investigate dozens of configurations be- planning a production plant in Marina, California, and includes all of MDA’s Canadian businesses—once the Markets analyst Richard Tse. fore settling on the S4 design, with its six tilting pro- as the world’s largest carmaker, Toyota will provide company’s core assets—encompassing ground sta- Assuming the turnaround works, and Maxar goes pellers, in 2014. The guiding principles were safety, expertise in manufacturing, quality and cost control. tions, radar satellite products, robotics, defense and on as a viable space services company, it will be inter- low noise and minimum cost per passenger-mile, says Joby is already using robotic automated fiber place- satellite components, representing 1,900 employees. esting to see if there are lessons learned for the wider founder and CEO JoeBen Bevirt. ment to produce composite structures. It further entails certain radar-related imagery sales space sector. Joby is the first eVTOL manufacturer to commit to With its early market lead and a 150-mi. range, the that have historically been included in Maxar’s imag- For his part, Tse —perhaps the most well-acquaint- deploying vehicles to meet Uber’s 2023 target for be- company is looking at more than just urban trips— ery segment. ed analyst covering Maxar dating to its more humble ginning commercial service in pilot cities, and the $594 suburban, intercity and rural flights are within the “We think the recently announced MDA sale sig- MDA days —admits a reason to reassess. In a Dec. 31 million Series C investment round led by Toyota will vehicle’s capability, says Sciarra. Acoustics are a high nificantly derisks the Maxar story by meaningfully investor note, he wrote: “The promise of synergies take the company through certification into produc- priority for community acceptance, particularly if reducing the likelihood of a liquidity crunch,” Credit touted by the former merger definitely raises ques- tion and putting initial vehicles into service, says Paul flights move out from noisy city centers. A 60-dB noise Suisse analysts Rob Spingarn and Scott Deuschle said tions in regard to the strategic decision-making by Sciarra, Joby executive chairman, early investor and level has been demonstrated, “but we need to continue in a Jan. 15 investor note. Once closed, which is ex- the company.” c Pinterest cofounder. to improve,” says Bevirt. c

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 15 COMMENTARY THE LAUNCHPAD IRENE KLOTZ

IT IS A LITTLE IRONIC THAT NASA’S Another area where Spitzer had a major impact was Spitzer Space Telescope, the final mem- the study of the very distant universe. Together with ber and least expensive of four so-called Hubble, Spitzer imaged the most distant galaxies ever Great Observatories that have operated found, objects that formed when the universe was about across the electromagnetic spectrum to expand human- 3% of its current age. “They probably formed earlier, since ity’s view of the universe, is being decommissioned for by the time we see it the star population is somewhat lack of $14 million a year. mature,” Werner says. Launched on Aug. 25, 2003, the Space Infrared Tele- “It was really not expected that galaxies of this size scope Facility, as it was originally known, joined the would be present in such abundance in the early universe. Hubble Space Telescope, the Compton Gamma Ray Spitzer has seen a number of these objects, studied the Observatory and the Chandra X-Ray Observatory in properties of their stars,” he adds. orbit, though it circled the Sun, not Earth. Following a 2.5-year primary mission, Spitzer was giv- Spitzer also was the only Great Observatory that en four extensions before losing funding priority. It won did not launch on a space a final, one-year reprieve shuttle, the result of a to continue operating redesign following the Spitzer Shutdown through 2019 after techni- 1986 Challenger accident cal problems delayed the and subsequent ban of NASA pulls the plug on a Great Observatory launch of its successor, the liquid-fueled Centaur the James Webb Space upper-stage engine— Visible + Infrared Telescope. needed to put the tele- NASA now plans to scope into its operational cease Spitzer operations orbit—from the shuttle on Jan. 30. Hubble and payload bay. Chandra remain oper- Slimmed down to fly on ational. Compton was a Delta II, Spitzer none- deorbited in 2000 after theless far surpassed its one of its three gyro- mission goals. From an scopes failed, which had Earth-trailing, heliocen- sparked concerns of an tric orbit, scientists had uncontrolled reentry over planned to use the tele- populated areas should scope’s infrared detectors another one falter. to peer inside the veils of Visible Infrared NASA tried to find cosmic dust to study the a private organization early universe, galaxy and to take over Spitzer, star-formation and proto- but neither of the two planetary discs that circle proposals received had young stars. enough funding for op- They ended up doing NASA/JPL/R. KENNICUTT, UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA, SINGS TEAM erations, says Bill Latter, all that and much more, including hunting extrasolar Spitzer program scientist at NASA headquarters in planets, the first of which were discovered only in the Washington. mid-1990s, as Spitzer was under construction. “We had a party, and nobody came with enough money “Because Spitzer was extremely well-designed, stable, to buy a ticket,” Werner adds dolefully. reliable and capable of observing for days on end . . . it Annual operating costs are about $14 million a year. had tremendous impact on the study of exoplanets,” says Spitzer will be put into a safe mode but not deorbited, Project Scientist Mike Werner, with the Jet Propulsion since it is so far from Earth and does not pose an im- Laboratory in Pasadena, California. pact or debris threat. Theoretically, it would be possible “We made the first detection of light from an exoplan- to restore communications with Spitzer, but “it would et, the first measurements of molecules in exoplanets’ be difficult—and before long, impossible,” because the atmospheres, the first measurements of energy transport telescope’s antenna will no longer be pointed at Earth, on exoplanets, and we had some remarkable individual Werner adds. discoveries including the Trappist-1 system,” which con- Shutting down Spitzer will not end its contributions sists of seven rocky, Earth-like planets orbiting the same to science. “We have a tremendous archive of more than faint red star, Werner says. 16 years of very high-quality infrared data, which is pub- Several of the Trappist-1 family orbit their parent licly accessible and for which NASA, in a competitive star at a distance where liquid surface water is possible. process, will award funding,” Werner says. “People will “The Trappist-1 discovery was mind-blowing,” Werner continue to work on the Spitzer data for decades into tells Aviation Week. the future.” c

16 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY THE LAUNCHPAD IRENE KLOTZ

IT IS A LITTLE IRONIC THAT NASA’S Another area where Spitzer had a major impact was Spitzer Space Telescope, the final mem- the study of the very distant universe. Together with ber and least expensive of four so-called Hubble, Spitzer imaged the most distant galaxies ever Great Observatories that have operated found, objects that formed when the universe was about across the electromagnetic spectrum to expand human- 3% of its current age. “They probably formed earlier, since ity’s view of the universe, is being decommissioned for by the time we see it the star population is somewhat lack of $14 million a year. mature,” Werner says. Launched on Aug. 25, 2003, the Space Infrared Tele- “It was really not expected that galaxies of this size scope Facility, as it was originally known, joined the would be present in such abundance in the early universe. Hubble Space Telescope, the Compton Gamma Ray Spitzer has seen a number of these objects, studied the Observatory and the Chandra X-Ray Observatory in properties of their stars,” he adds. orbit, though it circled the Sun, not Earth. Following a 2.5-year primary mission, Spitzer was giv- Spitzer also was the only Great Observatory that en four extensions before losing funding priority. It won did not launch on a space a final, one-year reprieve shuttle, the result of a to continue operating redesign following the Spitzer Shutdown through 2019 after techni- 1986 Challenger accident cal problems delayed the and subsequent ban of NASA pulls the plug on a Great Observatory launch of its successor, the liquid-fueled Centaur the James Webb Space upper-stage engine— Visible + Infrared Telescope. needed to put the tele- NASA now plans to scope into its operational cease Spitzer operations orbit—from the shuttle on Jan. 30. Hubble and payload bay. Chandra remain oper- Slimmed down to fly on ational. Compton was a Delta II, Spitzer none- deorbited in 2000 after theless far surpassed its one of its three gyro- mission goals. From an scopes failed, which had Earth-trailing, heliocen- sparked concerns of an tric orbit, scientists had uncontrolled reentry over planned to use the tele- populated areas should scope’s infrared detectors another one falter. to peer inside the veils of Visible Infrared NASA tried to find cosmic dust to study the a private organization early universe, galaxy and to take over Spitzer, star-formation and proto- but neither of the two planetary discs that circle proposals received had young stars. enough funding for op- They ended up doing NASA/JPL/R. KENNICUTT, UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA, SINGS TEAM erations, says Bill Latter, Thinking ahead – all that and much more, including hunting extrasolar Spitzer program scientist at NASA headquarters in planets, the first of which were discovered only in the Washington. mid-1990s, as Spitzer was under construction. “We had a party, and nobody came with enough money the future of aviation now. “Because Spitzer was extremely well-designed, stable, to buy a ticket,” Werner adds dolefully.

reliable and capable of observing for days on end . . . it Annual operating costs are about $14 million a year. The aviation industry has set itself ambitious targets, including a + had tremendous impact on the study of exoplanets,” says Spitzer will be put into a safe mode but not deorbited, dramatic reduction in emissions by the year 2050. In order to achieve Project Scientist Mike Werner, with the Jet Propulsion since it is so far from Earth and does not pose an im- See us at Laboratory in Pasadena, California. pact or debris threat. Theoretically, it would be possible this, we need aero engine solutions that surpass the technology “We made the first detection of light from an exoplan- to restore communications with Spitzer, but “it would of today. 10,000 MTU experts are already working day-to-day with SINGAPORE et, the first measurements of molecules in exoplanets’ be difficult—and before long, impossible,” because the passion and enthusiasm, bringing visionary ideas to life. AIRSHOW atmospheres, the first measurements of energy transport telescope’s antenna will no longer be pointed at Earth, The future of aviation starts now. on exoplanets, and we had some remarkable individual Werner adds. February 11 – 16, 2020 discoveries including the Trappist-1 system,” which con- Shutting down Spitzer will not end its contributions Booth J65 sists of seven rocky, Earth-like planets orbiting the same to science. “We have a tremendous archive of more than www.mtu.de faint red star, Werner says. 16 years of very high-quality infrared data, which is pub- Several of the Trappist-1 family orbit their parent licly accessible and for which NASA, in a competitive star at a distance where liquid surface water is possible. process, will award funding,” Werner says. “People will “The Trappist-1 discovery was mind-blowing,” Werner continue to work on the Spitzer data for decades into tells Aviation Week. the future.” c

16 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION > MAX thrift over safety p. 20 Conflict-zone issues p. 22 Silent flights and fighter jets p. 24 IAG leadership change p. 25 Chinese airline investments p. 26 Malaysia’s FAA rating p. 27 YEARS OF PAIN > AIRLINES FORCED TO BRIDGE SUMMER WITH MASSIVE CAPACITY SHORTFALL > SUPPLIERS HIT BY MAX PRODUCTION STOP > RECOVERY TO TAKE SEVERAL YEARS

Jens Flottau Dublin and Sean Broderick and Michael Bruno Washington

fter AerCap CEO Aengus Kelly heard Boeing’sBoeing’s Bad Bad Year Year about the latest expected Boeing 737 GROSSGROSS ORDERS ORDERS NETNET ORDERS ORDERS DELIVERIESDELIVERIES MAX return-to-service delay, his 1,1311,131 schedule changed instantly. “I have met 1,0901,090 A 893893 863863 with all the big MAX operators in the last 72 hr.,” 831831 800800 806806 he says. They were meetings of very, very unhap- 747747768768 py customers, united by anger and uncertainty. 380380 That the MAX grounding is now likely to extend another six months has huge consequences across the industry. Air- 246246 lines must rearrange schedules again and endure another 54 54 round of mass cancellations months after expecting the MAX to return, even in their worst-case scenarios. Lessors are 2018201820192019 2018201820192019 2018201820192019 2018201820192019 2018201820192019 2018201820192019 struggling to deal with the fall out, unsure when they can get AirbusAirbus BoeingBoeing AirbusAirbus BoeingBoeing AirbusAirbus BoeingBoeing and place aircraft with customers. Boeing’s suppliers also NN A A 0 0 . . have almost no visibility on the schedule. There will be no Boeing narrowbody deliveries until the summer, and it is on the heels of two MAX accidents in less than fi ve months. increasingly clear that it will take Boeing years to return By the summer, around 800 aircraft will either be stored to the production rates it had reached—and even longer to undelivered or never built as a consequence of the produc- achieve the increased output it had targeted. tion stop. On top of that, almost 400 aircraft had been deliv- There is also growing uncertainty around some wide- ered to operators before the grounding. The resulting airline body programs, including 787 and 777 rates, and Airbus capacity gap will be well more than 1,000 aircraft by summer. continues with production delays at its Hamburg fi nal as- There is little clarity on initial rates following the return to sembly lines. How many aircraft can and will be built and in fl ight, with analyst estimates varying. One industry source what time frame will likely be open questions for years. The believes Renton, Washington, can put out around 32 aircraft once clear path toward much higher narrowbody output is per month initially and step in fi ve-aircraft-per-month incre- blocked for now. ments every six months. Even so, Boeing would not return to “It is a big setback for airlines to have another summer an earlier rate of 52 aircraft per month until around the end gone,” says Kelly about the expected new MAX schedule. of 2022. And some doubt that a target rate of 57 is achievable “It is a very di† cult situation for them.” All have been sell- in the medium term, given uncertainty around demand and ing seats based on now invalid capacity assumptions. As a backlog vulnerability. consequence, there is big demand for lease extensions but In the short term, not everyone thinks that missing the hardly any dry-lease capacity available. Lessors with a MAX MAX fl eet is a bad thing. “We were saved by incompetence,” orderbook are in the same boat: It is “impossible to oˆ er Avitas Senior Vice President Adam Pilarski said at the Airfi - customers a slot” until Boeing sorts out the delivery stream, nance Journal Dublin 2020 conference. Airlines would have Kelly says. And he makes clear that “the damage caused to operated “way too many aircraft” if all had gone according our shareholders has to be compensated by Boeing.” to the overambitious plan, he said, citing slowing passenger “Production will be re invigorated . . . months before [an- demand and the risk of overcapacity. ticipated FAA approval],” Boeing’s new President and CEO The MAX grounding has been “painful for all stakehold- David Calhoun said Jan. 22 during his fi rst press conference. ers,” says Avolon CEO Domhnal Slattery, a major buyer of He mentioned June as a more specifi c target for anticipated the aircraft. Like other lessors, Avolon has “PDPs [pre deliv- FAA certifi cation, before clarifying that he was “not going to ery payments] sitting with Boeing not generating returns.” give [out] a precise date.” However, Slattery considers the latest schedule announce- The supply chain will come online even earlier as part of ment “the best news” coming out of Boeing in a long time a slow ramp-up starting in the idled production line’s fi rst because “I think we are getting near the end game.” position and will include new processes put in place during When aerostructures giant Spirit AeroSystems an- the shutdown, Calhoun said. MAX production halted in Jan- nounced job cuts due to the MAX production halt, managers uary, 10 months after the fl eet’s mid-March 2019 grounding noted further cuts could occur because of the MAX ramp-up

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION > MAX thrift over safety p. 20 Conflict-zone issues p. 22 Silent flights and fighter jets p. 24 IAG leadership change p. 25 Chinese airline investments p. 26 Malaysia’s FAA rating p. 27

Until the January stoppage, most of the supply chain had been bu– ered because Spirit and CFM International, the GE-Safran engine joint venture, OF had maintained production rates at 52 and 42 units YEARS PAIN a month, respectively. But the stoppage means all suppliers will share the pain, with little warning. > AIRLINES FORCED TO BRIDGE SUMMER WITH MASSIVE CAPACITY SHORTFALL In turn, four of 24 suppliers rated by Moody’s have been put on watch for credit downgrades. > SUPPLIERS HIT BY MAX PRODUCTION STOP > RECOVERY TO TAKE SEVERAL YEARS But “hundreds” more unrated suppliers around the world likely will feel the downturn. “The im- pact will be felt for many more months, though, as Jens Flottau Dublin and Sean Broderick and Michael Bruno Washington we expect a very gradual resumption of activity to pregrounding levels over an extended multiyear fter AerCap CEO Aengus Kelly heard Boeing’sBoeing’s Bad Bad Year Year time frame,” add Moody’s analysts. about the latest expected Boeing 737 While the MAX problems are the dominating GROSSGROSS ORDERS ORDERS NETNET ORDERS ORDERS DELIVERIESDELIVERIES industry concern, they are not the only one. Slug- MAX return-to-service delay, his 1,1311,131 gish widebody demand, exacerbated by several schedule changed instantly. “I have met 1,0901,090 market-specifi c headwinds point to potential pro- A 893893 duction-rate cuts for several Airbus and Boeing pro- 863863 with all the big MAX operators in the last 72 hr.,” 831831 800800 806806 grams, a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis contends. 747747768768 he says. They were meetings of very, very unhap- “The 787 is the closest to a cut and needs a book- py customers, united by anger and uncertainty. to-bill of 1 in 2020, since airframers are typically comfortable with about three years of backlog,” 380380 That the MAX grounding is now likely to extend another Bloomberg analyst George Ferguson wrote . Boeing six months has huge consequences across the industry. Air- 246246 has a backlog of 328 787s, the Aviation Week Intelli- lines must rearrange schedules again and endure another 54 54 gence Network’s Commercial Aviation Fleet Discov- round of mass cancellations months after expecting the MAX ery database shows, with a planned production-rate to return, even in their worst-case scenarios. Lessors are 2018201820192019 2018201820192019 2018201820192019 2018201820192019 2018201820192019 2018201820192019 cut to 12 per month, from 14, later this year. struggling to deal with the fall out, unsure when they can get AirbusAirbus BoeingBoeing AirbusAirbus BoeingBoeing AirbusAirbus BoeingBoeing Widebody demand has been sluggish across and place aircraft with customers. Boeing’s suppliers also the board, with Boeing and Airbus combining for NN A A 0 0 . . Sources: Airbus and Boeing have almost no visibility on the schedule. There will be no about 200 net fi rm orders in 2019, compared to 419 Boeing narrowbody deliveries until the summer, and it is on the heels of two MAX accidents in less than fi ve months. deliveries. The fi gures will likely translate into a increasingly clear that it will take Boeing years to return By the summer, around 800 aircraft will either be stored book-to-bill of about 0.5, even after Boeing fi nalizes to the production rates it had reached—and even longer to undelivered or never built as a consequence of the produc- Boeing was forced to its full-year fi rm order totals. achieve the increased output it had targeted. tion stop. On top of that, almost 400 aircraft had been deliv- stop 737 MAX production Boeing’s problems are more acute than those of There is also growing uncertainty around some wide- ered to operators before the grounding. The resulting airline in early January. its European rival, thanks largely to the U.S.-Chi- body programs, including 787 and 777 rates, and Airbus capacity gap will be well more than 1,000 aircraft by summer. na trade rift holding up sales to Chinese airlines. continues with production delays at its Hamburg fi nal as- There is little clarity on initial rates following the return to STEPEN RASEAR/GETTY IMAGES “Without China in the marketplace we have today, sembly lines. How many aircraft can and will be built and in fl ight, with analyst estimates varying. One industry source uncertainty. “Spirit has not received notice from its custom- it’s hard to see rate 12 being sustainable. . . . It wouldn’t be a what time frame will likely be open questions for years. The believes Renton, Washington, can put out around 32 aircraft er, Boeing, on how long the production suspension will last or surprise if we saw it go to rate 10,” Air Lease Corp. President once clear path toward much higher narrowbody output is per month initially and step in fi ve-aircraft-per-month incre- what the production rate will be in the future,” the Wichita and CEO John Plueger says. blocked for now. ments every six months. Even so, Boeing would not return to supplier said Jan. 10. “Spirit believes that, when production The 777 program’s monthly rate was adjusted to three “It is a big setback for airlines to have another summer an earlier rate of 52 aircraft per month until around the end resumes, the levels will be lower than previously expected from 3.5 as part of the bridge to the 777X, and some 777 gone,” says Kelly about the expected new MAX schedule. of 2022. And some doubt that a target rate of 57 is achievable due, in part, to the customer’s need to consume over 100 freighters are being moved up in the production queue to “It is a very di† cult situation for them.” All have been sell- in the medium term, given uncertainty around demand and MAX shipsets currently in storage at Spirit’s facilities. In help accommodate for delays in the 777X program. Boeing’s ing seats based on now invalid capacity assumptions. As a backlog vulnerability. addition, Boeing has several hundred MAX airplanes built notional plans are to ramp up the rate once the 777X is in consequence, there is big demand for lease extensions but In the short term, not everyone thinks that missing the but not yet delivered to its customers.” service, but Ferguson said several factors could force the hardly any dry-lease capacity available. Lessors with a MAX MAX fl eet is a bad thing. “We were saved by incompetence,” Spirit had increasingly dialed back expectations for 737 manufacturer to re examine its strategy. orderbook are in the same boat: It is “impossible to oˆ er Avitas Senior Vice President Adam Pilarski said at the Airfi - production during 2019. By November, it did not expect to ex- The A330 backlog appears solid at 331, thanks in part to an customers a slot” until Boeing sorts out the delivery stream, nance Journal Dublin 2020 conference. Airlines would have ceed a 737 fuselage production rate of 52 new units a month order for 40 A330-900neos Airbus booked in December and a Kelly says. And he makes clear that “the damage caused to operated “way too many aircraft” if all had gone according until 2022. Boeing had initially said it expected to reach rate production rate of four per month that has been in place for a our shareholders has to be compensated by Boeing.” to the overambitious plan, he said, citing slowing passenger 57 in late 2020. But those forecasts were issued before 737 year. But large exposure to AirAsiaX and Iran Air, a combined “Production will be re invigorated . . . months before [an- demand and the risk of overcapacity. work stopped completely and before the latest schedule shift. 35% of the backlog, is cause for concern, Ferguson said. ticipated FAA approval],” Boeing’s new President and CEO The MAX grounding has been “painful for all stakehold- Now fi nancial analysts see a lower-for-longer production Airbus separately decided to build another fi nal assembly David Calhoun said Jan. 22 during his fi rst press conference. ers,” says Avolon CEO Domhnal Slattery, a major buyer of scenario. “Spirit basically just cut 21% of its workforce, and line for the A321neo in Toulouse to be opened in 2022, a con- He mentioned June as a more specifi c target for anticipated the aircraft. Like other lessors, Avolon has “PDPs [pre deliv- it certainly seems like production rates are going to be in the sequence of high demand and serious production problems at FAA certifi cation, before clarifying that he was “not going to ery payments] sitting with Boeing not generating returns.” 40s for the next couple of years,” says Michael Ciarmoli of its Hamburg site. It is producing 60 single-aisle aircraft per give [out] a precise date.” However, Slattery considers the latest schedule announce- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. month—split among Toulouse; Hamburg; Mobile, Alabama; The supply chain will come online even earlier as part of ment “the best news” coming out of Boeing in a long time Credit analysts think most of the supply chain is in for and Tianjin , China—and is ramping up to 63 per month. a slow ramp-up starting in the idled production line’s fi rst because “I think we are getting near the end game.” trouble. “Several companies face potentially signifi cant earn- But even with the new line , overall single-aisle capacity in position and will include new processes put in place during When aerostructures giant Spirit AeroSystems an- ings and cash fl ow pressures that could erode their liquidity Toulouse will remain fl at. Airbus already has two fi nal assem- the shutdown, Calhoun said. MAX production halted in Jan- nounced job cuts due to the MAX production halt, managers in relatively short order,” Moody’s Investors Service said Jan. bly lines for the A320 in need of modernization. As the compa- uary, 10 months after the fl eet’s mid-March 2019 grounding noted further cuts could occur because of the MAX ramp-up 10. How that slows future rate increases is anyone’s guess. ny adds A321neo capacity, it is upgrading the two legacy lines.c

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 1 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

lines Flight 302 in March 2019—that Unsafe Decisions led regulators to ground the MAX in mid-March 2019. The fleet remains grounded while Boeing addresses > NEW DOCUMENTS SHED LIGHT ON BOEING’S DECISION-MAKING regulators’ concerns, including add- ing MCAS training and modifying the > BOEING DOWNPLAYED MCAS TO SKIP REGULATORY SCRUTINY system’s logic. Most pilots did not know the MCAS Sean Broderick Washington existed until after the Lion Air acci- dent. Boeing maintains that it kept the oeing knew in 2013 that intro- emphasize MCAS is a new function, MCAS, designed to be transparent to ducing the Maneuvering Char- there may be a greater certifi cation pilots, out of manuals to simplify pi- Bacteristics Augmentation Sys- and training impact.” lot training, and that an erroneous tem (MCAS) to the 737 MAX might Boeing’s solution: Refer to the MCAS activation would be quickly trigger additional training require- MCAS externally as an addition to diagnosed as a runaway stabilizer. The ments, so it made a decision: refer- the 737 Speed Trim, not by its name. 2013 memo casts doubt on the former, ring to MCAS internally was fi ne. But Boeing knew the approach might be and the two MAX accident sequences externally, particularly when talking questioned, so it sought input from its showed Boeing and regulators were with regulators, the MCAS would not FAA-designated authorized represen- wrong about the latter. be named, but rather described as an tative (AR) “to ensure this strategy is Boeing’s e› orts to win approval for extension of an existing 737 system. acceptable” for certifi cation, an inter- simulator-free MAX transition training Four years later, when Lion Air nal email says. succeeded with FAA approval in Au- was developing its MAX training “After speaking with the [AR], con- gust 2016, nine months before Malindo program in preparation for accepting currence was provided that we can Air become the fi rst customer to take its fi rst deliveries, the airline wanted to include simulator sessions for 737 Many issues Boeing pilots transitioning to the family’s newest version. Boeing pushed back weighed when developing aggressively, arguing that Lion Air the MAX look question- was burdening itself unnecessarily. able in hindsight, but Eventually, the airline relented. others are drawing The two scenarios, revealed in doc- scrutiny based on what uments Boeing recently made public, the company knew at are part of a growing pile of evidence the time. being used to piece together how the MAX program ended up where it is: two fatal accidents, a grounded fl eet, an idle production line, and no clear idea of when things will change. They also offer the clearest evidence yet that Boeing made some of its mon- ey-saving decisions despite having strong indications pointing to safer, more conservative options. Boeing determined early on that ensuring 737 pilots could transition to the MAX without simulator time would be a huge cost advantage when pitching the model to customers. It AVI RYER/GETTY IMAGES also realized that regulators could continue to use the MCAS nomencla- delivery of a MAX. But some MAX cus- consider the extent of the MAX’s ture internally . . . while still consid- tomers and regulators were not con- new features as too much to cover ering MCAS to be an addition to the vinced that CBT, or Level B training, in computer-based training (CBT). Speed Trim function,” the email says. would be suœ cient. Among them: Lion The MCAS, a fl ight control law that “This will allow us to maintain the Air and Indonesia’s Directorate Gener- commands automatic stabilizer move- MCAS nomenclature while not driving al of Civil Aviation (DGCA). ments in certain flight profiles, was additional work due to training impacts Lion Air was the fi rst Asia-Pacifi c chief among them. and maintenance manual expansions.” customer to order the MAX and would A version of the MCAS was devel- The plan extended to keeping men- be one of the model’s fi rst operators. oped for the 767 tanker program, “but tion of the MCAS out of MAX pilot In June 2017, with its fi rst delivery just [treated as an] analogous function, as training materials. Its erroneous ac- days away, the airline was still devel- a speed trim-type function,” a Boeing tivation played key roles in the two oping its training curriculum, and document summarizing a June 2013 MAX accidents—Lion Air Flight 610 simulator sessions were on the table. MAX program meeting said. “If we in October 2018 and Ethiopian Air- The airline’s early entry-into-service

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION lines Flight 302 in March 2019—that status meant other MAX customers FAA Certification Needs Adjustments, Unsafe Decisions led regulators to ground the MAX in would be monitoring its progress mid-March 2019. The fleet remains and fleet-related decisions, including Not Overhaul grounded while Boeing addresses training. > NEW DOCUMENTS SHED LIGHT ON BOEING’S DECISION-MAKING regulators’ concerns, including add- “I would like to discuss what if any THE FAA’S CERTIFICATION PROCESS IS NOT BROKEN, BUT SOME LONG- ing MCAS training and modifying the requirements beyond the Level B CBT standing guidance the agency and industry use needs updating, and product devel- > BOEING DOWNPLAYED MCAS TO SKIP REGULATORY SCRUTINY system’s logic. the DGCA has required of you, or if opment should be done from a systems-safety perspective that better integrates Most pilots did not know the MCAS your airline has determined any addi- design, operations and training. Those are the key takeaways in a final report pro- Sean Broderick Washington existed until after the Lion Air acci- tional training is required,” a Boeing dent. Boeing maintains that it kept the employee asked a Lion Air 737 train- duced by the Special Committee to Review the FAA’s Aircraft Certification Process oeing knew in 2013 that intro- emphasize MCAS is a new function, MCAS, designed to be transparent to ing captain in early June 2017. that examined the 737 MAX as a “case study,” committee chair Lee Moak says. ducing the Maneuvering Char- there may be a greater certifi cation pilots, out of manuals to simplify pi- The captain replied that the airline Commissioned by the U.S. Transportation Department but left to reach its own Bacteristics Augmentation Sys- and training impact.” lot training, and that an erroneous “decided to give the transition pilot conclusions, the committee spent more than six months evaluating the FAA’s prod- tem (MCAS) to the 737 MAX might Boeing’s solution: Refer to the MCAS activation would be quickly one simulator familiarization” in ad- uct-approval protocol. Its 68-page report includes 29 recommendations covering 10 trigger additional training require- MCAS externally as an addition to diagnosed as a runaway stabilizer. The dition to CBT. findings. ments, so it made a decision: refer- the 737 Speed Trim, not by its name. 2013 memo casts doubt on the former, “There is absolutely no reason to Among the key ones: System Safety Assessments (SSA) need to be expanded ring to MCAS internally was fi ne. But Boeing knew the approach might be and the two MAX accident sequences require your pilots to require a MAX externally, particularly when talking questioned, so it sought input from its showed Boeing and regulators were simulator to begin flying the MAX,” “to better consider human–machine interaction,” the report says. “The FAA should with regulators, the MCAS would not FAA-designated authorized represen- wrong about the latter. the Boeing employee replied. “Once consider removing exclusions for skill-related errors associated with manual control be named, but rather described as an tative (AR) “to ensure this strategy is Boeing’s e› orts to win approval for the engines are started, there is only of the airplane and ensure crew interaction with automated systems active in manual extension of an existing 737 system. acceptable” for certifi cation, an inter- simulator-free MAX transition training one difference between NG [Next Gen- flight are systematically assessed.” Four years later, when Lion Air nal email says. succeeded with FAA approval in Au- eration] and MAX procedurally, and Boeing’s SSAs showing how pilots would react to a malfunction of the MAX’s was developing its MAX training “After speaking with the [AR], con- gust 2016, nine months before Malindo that is that there is no OFF position of Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System were wrong. Boeing assumed program in preparation for accepting currence was provided that we can Air become the fi rst customer to take the [landing] gear handle. Boeing does pilots would identify the issue as a runaway stabilizer and react within seconds. But its fi rst deliveries, the airline wanted not understand what is to be gained to include simulator sessions for 737 by a 3-hr. simulator session, when the the crews involved in two fatal MAX accident sequences did not. Many issues Boeing pilots transitioning to the family’s procedures are essentially the same.” “[SSAs] should recognize that human errors are generally inevitable, and consider newest version. Boeing pushed back weighed when developing The Boeing employee then listed six the consequences of an equipment failure compounded with a foreseeable human aggressively, arguing that Lion Air the MAX look question- regulators that “have all accepted the failure,” the report says. was burdening itself unnecessarily. able in hindsight, but CBT requirement as the only training The committee recommended mandating safety management systems (SMS) for Eventually, the airline relented. others are drawing required” to transition to the MAX. manufacturers to help them adopt a holistic approach to product development. The two scenarios, revealed in doc- scrutiny based on what “I’d be happy to share the operational It also found that the FAA’s certification process is too U.S.-centric. “The FAA uments Boeing recently made public, the company knew at difference training with you, to help are part of a growing pile of evidence you understand that a MAX simulator should acknowledge the international profile of operators of U.S. State of Design the time. being used to piece together how the is both impractical and unnecessary aircraft and implement the necessary changes for its aircraft certification system to MAX program ended up where it is: for your pilots.” take into account differences in operations, training, and oversight across states,” two fatal accidents, a grounded fl eet, In a subsequent email, the Boeing the report says. The agency is already making changes in this area by using 737 an idle production line, and no clear employee provided presentations on pilots from a variety of non-U.S. carriers to evaluate changes to the MAX flight control idea of when things will change. They the MAX technical and operational system logic and related training. also offer the clearest evidence yet differences for the Lion Air captain The committee urged the FAA to go further, codifying requirements directly in type that Boeing made some of its mon- and his team. The Boeing employee ey-saving decisions despite having also urged Lion Air to consider alter- certificates, similar to the European Union Aviation Safety Agency. strong indications pointing to safer, natives to simulator time, such as a The committee also determined that certifying the MAX as a new design, rather more conservative options. flight-hour minimum in 737s or ensur- than a derivative, would not have changed the outcome. It “would not have produced Boeing determined early on that ing a pilot’s first MAX flight is always more rigorous scrutiny . . . and would not have produced a safer airplane,” the report ensuring 737 pilots could transition done alongside a pilot with MAX ex- says. to the MAX without simulator time perience. “However, the committee concluded that additional consideration of the interface would be a huge cost advantage when The following day, the Boeing em- between the changed item and the rest of the system, as well as the impact of mul- pitching the model to customers. It AVI RYER/GETTY IMAGES ployee followed up, again pitching al- also realized that regulators could continue to use the MCAS nomencla- delivery of a MAX. But some MAX cus- ternatives to simulator sessions. “I am tiple changes over time, should be required,” the report says. “This includes assess- consider the extent of the MAX’s ture internally . . . while still consid- tomers and regulators were not con- concerned that if [Lion Air] chooses ment of their combined effect on the flight crew’s ability to safely manage operational new features as too much to cover ering MCAS to be an addition to the vinced that CBT, or Level B training, to require a MAX simulator for its pi- tasks.” in computer-based training (CBT). Speed Trim function,” the email says. would be suœ cient. Among them: Lion lots beyond what all other regulators FAA Administrator Steve Dickson “welcomed” the recommendations, calling out The MCAS, a fl ight control law that “This will allow us to maintain the Air and Indonesia’s Directorate Gener- are requiring, that it will be creating the SMS and systems-safety aspects specifically.c commands automatic stabilizer move- MCAS nomenclature while not driving al of Civil Aviation (DGCA). a difficult and unnecessary training ments in certain flight profiles, was additional work due to training impacts Lion Air was the fi rst Asia-Pacifi c burden for your airline, as well as po- chief among them. and maintenance manual expansions.” customer to order the MAX and would tentially establish a precedent in your A version of the MCAS was devel- The plan extended to keeping men- be one of the model’s fi rst operators. region for other MAX customers,” the which the FAA says it will consider as es to at least six checklists are among oped for the 767 tanker program, “but tion of the MCAS out of MAX pilot In June 2017, with its fi rst delivery just Boeing employee wrote. it evaluates Boeing’s proposed train- the updates Boeing is making to the [treated as an] analogous function, as training materials. Its erroneous ac- days away, the airline was still devel- Boeing in early January changed ing revamp—is based on simulator MAX to satisfy regulators’ concerns. a speed trim-type function,” a Boeing tivation played key roles in the two oping its training curriculum, and its position that 737 pilots do not trials last month during which some It is also modifying the MAX’s flight document summarizing a June 2013 MAX accidents—Lion Air Flight 610 simulator sessions were on the table. need simulator sessions before flying line pilots did not follow checklists control computer software, including MAX program meeting said. “If we in October 2018 and Ethiopian Air- The airline’s early entry-into-service a MAX. Its new recommendation— during emergency scenarios. Chang- the MCAS. c

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 21 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

tic missile attack from inside the country on U.S. forces based Deja Vu in Iraq. The international aviation response was uncoordinated. Shortly after Iran’s strike, the U.S. FAA warned civil aircraft to > HIGH-RISK AIRSPACE IS NOT ALWAYS FLAGGED avoid the Baghdad Flight Information Region, which includes Iraqi airspace. (U.S. economic sanctions prevent its airlines > OPERATORS ARE USUALLY LEFT TO MAKE from serving Iran.) Many international airlines continued to THEIR OWN DECISIONS fly to Iran. “The airport was fully operational, and there was no suspen- > GLOBAL STATE COOPERATION REMAINS ELUSIVE sion from Iranian aviation authorities, no warnings,” Ukraine International Airlines President Yevhenii Dykhne said Jan. 10. Jens Flottau Frankfurt and Sean Broderick Washington About 20 aircraft movements at Imam Khomeini took place after the Iranian missile strikes, and flights continued after he downing of Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 was shot down. 752 (PS752) comes five years after a similar occurrence It took the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) Ttouched off calls for aviation and governments to im- until Jan. 11—three days after the disaster—to recommend prove at steering aircraft away from risky airspace. But the avoiding Iran overflights at any altitude. EASA has no man- disaster underscores that clear deficiencies remain, and the date to force European airlines into action, which left carriers loss of all 176 people minutes into a routine, scheduled flight making their own decisions on serving Iranian airports. Most has jump-started discussions about what to do next. continued flights, despite seemingly apparent risks. PS752 was hit by two ground-to-air missiles minutes af- “Unfortunately, our flight was at the wrong place, at the ter departure from Teheran’s Imam Khomeini International wrong time,” Dykhne says. “Any other aircraft could [have Airport on Jan. 8. It took Iran several days to concede that been] in its place.” someone in its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) EASA followed up on its initial recommendation on Jan. 16 had mistakenly identified the aircraft as a U.S. missile nearing with a more formal yet less stringent Conflict Zone Informa- Tehran—a scenario that IRGC was poised for in the hours tion Bulletin (CZIB), valid until July 16. “Due to the hazard- after Iran struck U.S. facilities in Iraq. ous security situation, and poor coordination between civil aviation and military operations, there is a risk of misidentification of civil aircraft,” it states. “Due to the presence of advanced air-defence systems, it is advised to be cautious with the risk associated to civil aviation. The risk to operations is assessed to be high for flight levels below 250.” The original recommendation remains in place. More than five years after the July 2014 down- ing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17) over Eastern Ukraine ignited global efforts to keep air transport flights out of high-risk airspace, there is still no infrastructure in place to guide airlines and civil authorities’ fly/no-fly decisions. International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) guidance and international consensus is clear: It is up to states Iran put its air defenses to protect aircraft in their airspace, even if that on high alert following its means closing it down, if risks warrant. But that strike on U.S. forces, but does not always happen. did not shut down its airspace. An ICAO information repository meant to support global analysis has been abandoned, AKBAR TAVAKOLI/IRNA/AFP/GETTY IMAGES and lead aviation authorities the FAA and EASA The International Air Transport Association (IATA) called make their own judgments based on intelligence of varying the event “an outrage” and demanded that “no effort should quality. Many governments make no serious effort to par- be spared to make sure that such a tragedy is never repeated.” ticipate in the process, even though they are responsible for IATA Director of Aviation Security Matthew Vaughn adds their own air carriers’ safety. Airlines are often left making that it was “shocking” that the governments of Iraq and Iran their own calls. “failed across several [ICAO] Annexes by not providing any “We have no trust in the intelligence our government information to the airlines even many days after the event.” provides,” says an executive at a major airline. “There are Tension in the region was especially high following the Jan. no useful recommendations. Our decisions are all based on 3 U.S. strike on an Iranian military convoy near Iraq’s Baghdad information gathered in informal networks.” These unoffi- International Airport that killed IRGC Gen. Qasem Soleimani. cial links—between airlines or airlines and authorities—are Iran struck back in the early hours of Jan. 8, launching a ballis- considered the strongest source of information. The situation varies from state to state. For instance, the Check 6 Aviation Week editors discuss events surrounding the U.S. typically has “great information-sharing” among intel- PS752 tragedy and what can be done to prevent similar future ligence agencies and aviation officials, says FAA safety chief tragedies: AviationWeek.com/podcast Ali Bahrami.

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION Notable Airliner Shootdowns Since World War II

July 23, 1954 Cathay Pacific Douglas DC-4 enroute from Bang- tic missile attack from inside the country on U.S. forces based But as political tensions between the U.S. and many long- kok to Hong Kong was shot down by Chinese Air Force Lavochkin in Iraq. time allies have risen, there is evidence of less cross-border Deja Vu La-7 fighters off the coast of Hainan Island. Ten on board died. The international aviation response was uncoordinated. intelligence-sharing, putting more of a strain on the informal Shortly after Iran’s strike, the U.S. FAA warned civil aircraft to networks tasked with filing in gaps. July 27, 1955 El Al Lockheed L-049 Constellation from Vienna to Tel > HIGH-RISK AIRSPACE IS NOT ALWAYS FLAGGED avoid the Baghdad Flight Information Region, which includes “It is clear that we cannot rely on conflict-stressed states to Aviv, Israel, was shot down by two Bulgarian MiG-15s after straying Iraqi airspace. (U.S. economic sanctions prevent its airlines restrict or close their own airspace,” says European Cockpit into Bulgarian airspace. Fifty-eight crew and passengers died. > OPERATORS ARE USUALLY LEFT TO MAKE from serving Iran.) Many international airlines continued to Association (ECA) Secretary General Philip von Schoppen- THEIR OWN DECISIONS fly to Iran. thau. “We must in principle rely on our national authorities Feb. 21, 1973 Libyan Arab Airlines Boeing 727 from Tripoli, Libya, “The airport was fully operational, and there was no suspen- and our airlines to make sure that the lives of passengers to Cairo shot down by two Israeli Air Force McDonnell Douglas > GLOBAL STATE COOPERATION REMAINS ELUSIVE sion from Iranian aviation authorities, no warnings,” Ukraine and crew are adequately protected and this unchecked risk F-4s. Five of the 113 on board survived. International Airlines President Yevhenii Dykhne said Jan. 10. is addressed. However, purely national, uncoordinated action April 20, 1978 Korean Air Lines Boeing 707 from Seoul to Paris Jens Flottau Frankfurt and Sean Broderick Washington About 20 aircraft movements at Imam Khomeini took place has not done the job in the past and won’t do it in the future.” was forced down by Soviet Sukhoi Su-15s near Murmansk after after the Iranian missile strikes, and flights continued after Georg Fongern, head of security at Germany’s pilot union straying into Soviet airspace. Despite losing part of a wingtip to an he downing of Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 was shot down. Vereinigung Cockpit (VC), laments that the conflict-zone is- air-to-air missile, the crew landed on a frozen lake. Two passengers 752 (PS752) comes five years after a similar occurrence It took the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) sue “has existed for decades” but prompted little meaningful died, but 107 survived. Ttouched off calls for aviation and governments to im- until Jan. 11—three days after the disaster—to recommend action. “We have all known the risks, but the community has prove at steering aircraft away from risky airspace. But the avoiding Iran overflights at any altitude. EASA has no man- not had the courage to take painful decisions,” he says. “There Sept. 3, 1978 Air Rhodesia Vickers Viscount from Kariba to Salis- disaster underscores that clear deficiencies remain, and the date to force European airlines into action, which left carriers have been several shootdowns, and nothing has happened.” bury was shot down by Zimbabwe People’s Revolutionary Army loss of all 176 people minutes into a routine, scheduled flight making their own decisions on serving Iranian airports. Most The Dutch-led probe into MH17 generated a series of con- (ZIPRA) guerrillas using a Strela 2 surface-to-air missile. Although has jump-started discussions about what to do next. continued flights, despite seemingly apparent risks. flict-zone recommendations. ICAO, prompted in part by the 18 of the 56 passengers survived the crash, 10 were massacred PS752 was hit by two ground-to-air missiles minutes af- “Unfortunately, our flight was at the wrong place, at the report, spearheaded development of a risk-assessment man- by the guerrillas at the crash site. ter departure from Teheran’s Imam Khomeini International wrong time,” Dykhne says. “Any other aircraft could [have ual for operations over or near conflict zones. The guidance Feb. 12, 1979 Air Rhodesia Vickers Viscount from Kariba and Airport on Jan. 8. It took Iran several days to concede that been] in its place.” supports ICAO’s foundational standards in its annexes, which Salisbury was shot down by ZIPRA guerrillas using a Strela 2 mis- someone in its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) EASA followed up on its initial recommendation on Jan. 16 all ICAO signatories have pledged to follow but do not carry sile. None of the 59 passengers or crew survived. had mistakenly identified the aircraft as a U.S. missile nearing with a more formal yet less stringent Conflict Zone Informa- legal obligation. The manual also notes that it does not “cov- Tehran—a scenario that IRGC was poised for in the hours tion Bulletin (CZIB), valid until July 16. “Due to the hazard- er the risk that arises at lower altitudes (including during Feb. 8, 1980 Linhas Aereas de Angola Yakovlev Yak-40 shot down after Iran struck U.S. facilities in Iraq. ous security situation, and poor coordination between civil takeoff and landing phases) from short-range surface-to-air near Matala, Angola, with the loss of 19 passengers and crew, be- aviation and military operations, there is a risk of missiles”—precisely the scenario for PS752. lieved to have been fired on by a Zambian Shenyang J-6 (MiG-19). misidentification of civil aircraft,” it states. “Due The manual was one of several high-level initiatives stem- Sept. 1, 1983 Korean Air Lines Boeing 747-200 enroute from New to the presence of advanced air-defence systems, ming from MH17. EASA held a conflict-zone workshop in De- York to Seoul via Anchorage was shot down by a Sukhoi Su-15TM it is advised to be cautious with the risk associated cember 2019 with government and industry experts partici- just west of Sakhalin Island after entering Soviet airspace. All 269 to civil aviation. The risk to operations is assessed pating. Three working groups were established to deal with passengers and crew perished. to be high for flight levels below 250.” The original three items: creation of a point-of-contact available 24/7 for recommendation remains in place. airlines to get viable conflict-zone information, harmonization July 3, 1988 Iran Air Airbus A300B2 from Bandar Abbas, Iran, More than five years after the July 2014 down- of terminology and the creation of an information-sharing to Dubai was misidentified and shot down by a RIM-66 Standard ing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17) over mechanism that is open to all stakeholders. EASA says it is surface-to-air missile from the U.S. Navy guided missile cruiser Eastern Ukraine ignited global efforts to keep air “now defining in more detail how an expert group compris- USS Vincennes. All 290 passengers and crew died. transport flights out of high-risk airspace, there is ing aviation stakeholders (EU national aviation authorities, still no infrastructure in place to guide airlines and airlines, representatives from EU institutions) could work Oct. 4, 2001 Siberian Airlines Tupolev Tu-154 was hit by an S-200 civil authorities’ fly/no-fly decisions. International together to improve information-sharing in a timely manner.” surface-to-air missile over the Black Sea enroute from Tel Aviv, Isra- Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) guidance and VC welcomes that idea, among others, because the EASA el, to Novosibirsk, Russia. The missile was launched in error during international consensus is clear: It is up to states scheme appears to be open to stakeholders, including unions. a Ukrainian military exercise. All 66 passengers and 12 crew died. Iran put its air defenses to protect aircraft in their airspace, even if that IATA’s Vaughan also sees the initiative as positive in principle Nov. 22, 2003 DHL Airbus A300-200F freighter was hit by a on high alert following its means closing it down, if risks warrant. But that but cautions that there are still governance and legal ques- surface-to-air missile when enroute from Baghdad to Muharraq, strike on U.S. forces, but does not always happen. tions that need to be answered. Bahrain. Despite the loss of hydraulics, the crew managed a suc- did not shut down its airspace. An ICAO information repository meant to The ECA does not see a pan-European or internation- cessful emergency landing, and there were no casualties. support global analysis has been abandoned, al body forming to take on the role, meaning stakeholders AKBAR TAVAKOLI/IRNA/AFP/GETTY IMAGES and lead aviation authorities the FAA and EASA must step up using the information they have. “What we July 17, 2014 Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200ER, enroute from The International Air Transport Association (IATA) called make their own judgments based on intelligence of varying urgently need is a method of sharing and acting, not upon Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was hit over Ukraine by a Buk sur- the event “an outrage” and demanded that “no effort should quality. Many governments make no serious effort to par- closely guarded intelligence, but upon the outcome of risk face-to-air missile believed to have been launched by pro-Russian be spared to make sure that such a tragedy is never repeated.” ticipate in the process, even though they are responsible for analysis about conflict zones,” says ECA President Jon Horne. separatists. All 283 passengers and 15 crew were killed. IATA Director of Aviation Security Matthew Vaughn adds their own air carriers’ safety. Airlines are often left making “With these outcomes from different European airlines and that it was “shocking” that the governments of Iraq and Iran their own calls. states swiftly shared amongst each other and authorities, no “failed across several [ICAO] Annexes by not providing any “We have no trust in the intelligence our government European airline or pilot should be left in the dark—all have For now, one challenge remains even if changes are made: information to the airlines even many days after the event.” provides,” says an executive at a major airline. “There are the opportunity to benefit from the effect of the privileged EASA’s initiative is mainly regional, IATA initiatives would Tension in the region was especially high following the Jan. no useful recommendations. Our decisions are all based on information of the best informed.” be sectoral – there is still no global system in sight that every- 3 U.S. strike on an Iranian military convoy near Iraq’s Baghdad information gathered in informal networks.” These unoffi- Airlines also are reassessing their position on what role one contributes to and everyone can use. Given the politics International Airport that killed IRGC Gen. Qasem Soleimani. cial links—between airlines or airlines and authorities—are they should play. “After MH17, there was a decision made to involved and many other limitations, the industry may well Iran struck back in the early hours of Jan. 8, launching a ballis- considered the strongest source of information. not get involved in the tactical level,” says IATA’s Vaughan. have to live with the idea that there will never be one. The situation varies from state to state. For instance, the Members gave the association a more strategic mandate re- Ideally, VC’s Fongern says, flight crews would get unfiltered Check 6 Aviation Week editors discuss events surrounding the U.S. typically has “great information-sharing” among intel- flected in around 120 security standards to be met as part of information fast, even en route to a crisis zone, and be em- PS752 tragedy and what can be done to prevent similar future ligence agencies and aviation officials, says FAA safety chief the IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA). “Now the question powered by employers to act accordingly—and with impunity. tragedies: AviationWeek.com/podcast Ali Bahrami. is being asked again.” “The captain’s decisions have to be accepted.” c

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NATO Works With ATC Initial steps include an advisory campaign that is distributing lists of best practices and procedures for pilots and air traffic as Silent Flights Prompt controllers who face radio communication loss. Attention also is turning to the general and business avi- Fighter Jet Scrambles ation community. NATO has records of two incidents where the same private aircraft was intercepted twice in six days > MOST INCIDENTS CAUSED BY TECHNICAL ERROR after being uncommunicative for nearly an hour. The need for air policing is unlikely to go away, but coun- > NATO SEEKS CROSS-BORDER ARRANGEMENTS tries are taking steps to share the burden. Perhaps the most significant of these is the Benelux air-po- Tony Osborne Brussels and Siauliai, Lithuania licing initiative, in which Belgium and the Netherlands take turns every four months to police the airspace of the two ATO and Eurocontrol air traffic management are nations and Luxembourg. working to reduce the number of incidents in which “We were both facing aging and reducing numbers of air- Nfighters are scrambled in response to a lack of com- craft which were sometimes operating really close to each munications from commercial aircraft. [other] and doing the same mission for a small part of the The alliance recorded nearly 500 so-called Comloss inci- NATO and national airspace,” says Col. Geert De Decker, dents within European airspace in 2019. Although the ma- Belgian Air Force chief of staff. jority are resolved in minutes, around a sixth of those cases The four aircraft on quick-reaction alert (QRA) are “iso- prompt the scrambling of fighters, equivalent to some 80 lated, and that is demanding on the fleet,” De Decker says. fighter launches a year. With shared air-policing re- Officials admit the number Comloss Incidents sponsibilities across three rela- of incidents is small when com- and Fighter Scrambles tively small countries, the QRA pared to the increasing level of fighters can reach anywhere in Number of Number of Comloss-Prompted air traffic zipping through Eu- Year the three countries within a few rope’s busy airspace: Around Incidents Fighter Scrambles minutes. 30,000 flights are recorded dai- 2019 489 80 Few other nations in Europe ly. Launching a fighter aircraft is 2018 590 77 have a relationship as close as the three Benelux countries, but far from cheap, but it is often the 2017 816 82 only way to establish contact. Habersetzer is hopeful that fu- “Any incident is one incident 2016 504 76 ture air-policing arrangements too many, but when you look at 2015 470 79 in Europe could allow fighters the amount of air traffic, we are 2014 307 54 from one country to continue to unlikely to reduce that to zero,” intercept or shadow an aircraft says Lt. Gen. Klaus Habersetzer, Source: NATO in the airspace of another. “This commander of NATO’s Combined Air Operations Centre would make it a lot easier for handover and takeover,” he says. (CAOC) at Uedem, Germany. The CAOC in Uedem is the NATO nations without combat aircraft to perform the location where NATO monitors military and civil air traf- air-policing mission rely on others to provide airspace secu- fic in Northern Europe and where the decision is made to rity. For example, in Slovenia the mission is shared by the air scramble fighters. A second CAOC, located in Torrejon, forces of Hungary and Italy. The Italian Air Force also shares Spain, monitors the airspace across Southern Europe and the air-policing mission of Albania and Montenegro with the the Mediterranean. Hellenic Air Force. “The good news is that in more than 90% [of Comloss in- The mission in the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lith- cidents] it is pilot or technical error setting the wrong fre- uania continues, with NATO countries providing detachments quency,” Habersetzer says. of fighters to Amari air base, Estonia, and Siauliai, Lithuania, Nonetheless, prolonged loss of contact can look sinister. for four months a year. Currently, the mission is performed by After all, a loss of contact with four aircraft preceded the ter- Belgium, as the lead nation, flying F-16s from Lithuania, while rorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, as well as the loss of the Ger- the Polish fly F-16s from Amari. Armed with beyond-visu- manwings Airbus A320 in France in 2015, officials point out. al-range and within-visual-range air-to-air missiles, the fight- In one incident in December 2017, the crew of a commercial ers have made regular intercepts of Russian military aircraft flight from Moscow to Milan was noncommunicative with air transiting from St. Petersburg to the Kaliningrad Oblast via traffic control for 51 min. as the aircraft crossed the Czech -Re the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea. public and Austria and headed into Italy, from where fighters Although the number of intercepts had tailed off this winter, were scrambled. Once the fighters were alongside the airliner, the Belgian Air Force detachment has reported intercepts of the crew quickly reestablished contact. fighter aircraft, strategic bombers and transports. The de- “The passengers didn’t know the aircraft had been uncom- tachment also has had to deal with one commercial airliner municative until the fighters were there,” said one NATO of- that had been noncommunicative with air traffic control. ficial briefing journalists in Brussels. NATO aircraft intercepts reached 200 in 2019 according to Eurocontrol describes the Comloss incidents as a “disrup- NATO figures, the highest recorded figure since the Russian tion to the wider air traffic management system, and a waste annexation of Crimea in 2014. of scarce national resources.” “By intercepting [Russian aircraft], we send a clear sig- Together, NATO and Eurocontrol have established joint nal of being vigilant. That is good sign of deterrence and working groups to work on solutions to Comloss situations. defense,” Habersetzer says. c

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NATO Works With ATC Initial steps include an advisory campaign that is distributing Change at the Top of IAG acquisition, Roeska added. “With the lists of best practices and procedures for pilots and air traffic deal targeted to close in the second as Silent Flights Prompt controllers who face radio communication loss. as Challenges Loom half of 2020, having a stable manage- Attention also is turning to the general and business avi- ment team to oversee the integration Fighter Jet Scrambles ation community. NATO has records of two incidents where > WALSH WILL STEP DOWN AS CEO IN MARCH AND RETIRE IN JUNE should be preferred. Furthermore, this the same private aircraft was intercepted twice in six days acquisition is being made by Iberia — > MOST INCIDENTS CAUSED BY TECHNICAL ERROR after being uncommunicative for nearly an hour. > CURRENT IBERIA CEO WILL TAKE THE HELM and with Mr. Gallego moving up to the The need for air policing is unlikely to go away, but coun- group CEO role, we would expect Ibe- > NATO SEEKS CROSS-BORDER ARRANGEMENTS tries are taking steps to share the burden. Perhaps the most significant of these is the Benelux air-po- Gallego will preside over the renewal Tony Osborne Brussels and Siauliai, Lithuania licing initiative, in which Belgium and the Netherlands take of a large part of the IAG eet. turns every four months to police the airspace of the two ATO and Eurocontrol air traffic management are nations and Luxembourg. ria to have appointed and embedded a working to reduce the number of incidents in which “We were both facing aging and reducing numbers of air- new CEO at the time when the integra- Nfighters are scrambled in response to a lack of com- craft which were sometimes operating really close to each tion work and synergy reali zation be- munications from commercial aircraft. [other] and doing the same mission for a small part of the gins, hopefully minimizing disruption The alliance recorded nearly 500 so-called Comloss inci- NATO and national airspace,” says Col. Geert De Decker, during that period.” dents within European airspace in 2019. Although the ma- Belgian Air Force chief of staff. Gallego is another aviation veter- jority are resolved in minutes, around a sixth of those cases The four aircraft on quick-reaction alert (QRA) are “iso- OEPRIESAVIATIONNET an: He started in the industry in 1997 prompt the scrambling of fighters, equivalent to some 80 lated, and that is demanding on the fleet,” De Decker says. Helen Massy-Beresford Paris with Air Nostrum and served as Iberia fighter launches a year. With shared air-policing re- CEO since 2014, leading the airline’s Officials admit the number Comloss Incidents sponsibilities across three rela- illie Walsh, the man behind ORL TRAVEL AN TORISM ONIL transformation and improvement to of incidents is small when com- and Fighter Scrambles tively small countries, the QRA the success of International its fi nances over the years. pared to the increasing level of fighters can reach anywhere in Airlines Group (IAG) over Gallego will also oversee a shift in Number of Number of Comloss-Prompted W air traffic zipping through Eu- Year the three countries within a few the past decade, has announced he will the airline group’s growth strategy. rope’s busy airspace: Around Incidents Fighter Scrambles minutes. retire in June, leaving his successor, IAG said Nov. 8 at its capital markets 30,000 flights are recorded dai- 2019 489 80 Few other nations in Europe Iberia CEO Luis Gallego, to manage day that it was revising its capacity ly. Launching a fighter aircraft is 2018 590 77 have a relationship as close as the challenges that lie ahead for the planning downward for the next three the three Benelux countries, but years, revealing plans to grow capac- far from cheap, but it is often the 2017 816 82 airline group. only way to establish contact. Habersetzer is hopeful that fu- Walsh is a former Aer Lingus pilot IMAGES LEAL OLIVAS/AFPGETTY ANIEL ity by an average of 3.4% in 2020-22. “Any incident is one incident 2016 504 76 ture air-policing arrangements who rose through the ranks to become This growth figure is down from a too many, but when you look at in Europe could allow fighters the Irish carrier’s CEO in 2001, then previous target of a 7.4% compound 2015 470 79 Willie Walsh (left), the architect of the amount of air traffic, we are 2014 307 54 from one country to continue to British Airways’ (BA) CEO in 2005, annual growth rate and will lead to unlikely to reduce that to zero,” intercept or shadow an aircraft and fi nally head of the group formed by IAG, will be succeeded as CEO by the group o£ ering 13.3% less capacity says Lt. Gen. Klaus Habersetzer, Source: NATO in the airspace of another. “This BA’s merger with Iberia in 2011, gain- Iberia chief executive Luis Gallego. in 2022 than it had originally planned. commander of NATO’s Combined Air Operations Centre would make it a lot easier for handover and takeover,” he says. ing a reputation for determination and The decision comes after the group (CAOC) at Uedem, Germany. The CAOC in Uedem is the NATO nations without combat aircraft to perform the straight talking along the way. economic weakness, overcapacity, already reduced its 2019 expansion. location where NATO monitors military and civil air traf- air-policing mission rely on others to provide airspace secu- “Willie has been the main driver of and fi erce competition from low-cost The original plan saw IAG’s airlines of- fic in Northern Europe and where the decision is made to rity. For example, in Slovenia the mission is shared by the air this unique idea that is IAG,” group carriers, not to mention the growing fering 5.9% more capacity in 2019, but scramble fighters. A second CAOC, located in Torrejon, forces of Hungary and Italy. The Italian Air Force also shares Chairman Antonio Vazquez said Jan. 9. scrutiny of aviation’s impact on cli- that was revised downward to 4% as Spain, monitors the airspace across Southern Europe and the air-policing mission of Albania and Montenegro with the Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska mate change. general economic growth weakened. the Mediterranean. Hellenic Air Force. agreed, writing in a Jan. 9 research Gallego will now be the one to over- Gallego will also preside over the re- “The good news is that in more than 90% [of Comloss in- The mission in the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lith- note: “Under Willie Walsh’s tenure at see IAG’s €1 billion ($1.1 billion) pur- newal of a large part of the IAG fl eet, cidents] it is pilot or technical error setting the wrong fre- uania continues, with NATO countries providing detachments British Airways and IAG, the company chase of Air Europa in a transaction with 51 long-haul and 92 short-haul quency,” Habersetzer says. of fighters to Amari air base, Estonia, and Siauliai, Lithuania, has been transformed. He has overseen that is set to be completed in the sec- aircraft set to arrive over three years. Nonetheless, prolonged loss of contact can look sinister. for four months a year. Currently, the mission is performed by the integration of BA with Iberia, and ond half of 2020. The move is seen as In parallel, IAG—which has blazed After all, a loss of contact with four aircraft preceded the ter- Belgium, as the lead nation, flying F-16s from Lithuania, while then Vueling and Aer Lingus. The im- a key strategic step for IAG, aimed at a trail in the aviation sector with its rorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, as well as the loss of the Ger- the Polish fly F-16s from Amari. Armed with beyond-visu- plementation of the holding company boosting its Madrid base to rival the airline holding model, in large part manwings Airbus A320 in France in 2015, officials point out. al-range and within-visual-range air-to-air missiles, the fight- model has been a resounding success.” biggest hubs across Europe. thanks to Walsh’s efforts—is now In one incident in December 2017, the crew of a commercial ers have made regular intercepts of Russian military aircraft Walsh had already said in Novem- Gallego said in November when being copied by others including flight from Moscow to Milan was noncommunicative with air transiting from St. Petersburg to the Kaliningrad Oblast via ber that he planned to retire within the deal was announced: “This is of Ryanair. IAG has also said it wanted traffic control for 51 min. as the aircraft crossed the Czech -Re the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea. the next two years, so the transition strategic importance for the Madrid to push for closer integration. public and Austria and headed into Italy, from where fighters Although the number of intercepts had tailed off this winter, comes at a key moment for IAG, the hub, which in recent years has lagged Walsh said Nov. 8 that responsibil- were scrambled. Once the fighters were alongside the airliner, the Belgian Air Force detachment has reported intercepts of parent company of British Airways, behind other European hubs. Follow- ities for some areas of the business the crew quickly reestablished contact. fighter aircraft, strategic bombers and transports. The de- Iberia, Aer Lingus, Vueling and Level. ing this agreement, Madrid will be such as pricing and revenue manage- “The passengers didn’t know the aircraft had been uncom- tachment also has had to deal with one commercial airliner Appointing a company insider to able to compete with other European ment, sales and distribution, loyalty municative until the fighters were there,” said one NATO of- that had been noncommunicative with air traffic control. succeed Walsh implies a welcome hubs on equal terms, with a better programs and fleet planning would ficial briefing journalists in Brussels. NATO aircraft intercepts reached 200 in 2019 according to sense of continuity, Roeska wrote. position on Europe-to-Latin America be transferred from the individual Eurocontrol describes the Comloss incidents as a “disrup- NATO figures, the highest recorded figure since the Russian Like its European airline peers, routes and the possibility to become airlines to IAG itself. Network devel- tion to the wider air traffic management system, and a waste annexation of Crimea in 2014. IAG is taking steps to shore up its a gateway between Asia and Latin opment will now be decided jointly of scarce national resources.” “By intercepting [Russian aircraft], we send a clear sig- activities amid a tough environment America.” with IAG, marking the next step in Together, NATO and Eurocontrol have established joint nal of being vigilant. That is good sign of deterrence and for legacy airline groups—contend- The timing of the transition also the development of the airline holding working groups to work on solutions to Comloss situations. defense,” Habersetzer says. c ing with geopolitical tensions and makes sense given the Air Europa company’s strategy. c

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Chinese Governments tember, the government said it aimed to develop Changsha Huanghua In- Expand Airline Investments ternational Airport as a hub for cen- tral China. The provincial and muni- ONE PRIVATE AIRLINE IS NOW UNDER FULL MUNICIPAL OWNERSHIP cipal governments covering Wuhan > and Zhengzhou, cities to the north of > SETTING UP A NEW MAINLINE CARRIER IS NOW DIFFICULT Changsha, have similar aims for their main airports. Until 2016 Hunan could Bradley Perrett Beijing have gained a new airline by offering capital and other incentives to an airline rivate ownership is a dimin- closure of a local carrier, because air group, typically HNA, to establish one. ishing factor in Chinese com- links are valued for helping to promote But the Civil Aviation Administration of Pmercial aviation—not because economic growth. Qingdao Airlines has China now is disinclined to license new the central government is trying to 25 Airbus A320s, of which 17 are leased. mainline passenger carriers. stamp it out, but because the indus- The city was a shareholder in Faced with the same problem, try keeps drawing investments from Qingdao Airlines when it began flying in Tongcheng bought control of Hongtu supportive municipal and provincial 2014. The city and another official share- Airlines in 2017, changing the brand governments. holder, Shandong Airlines, sold their to Air Travel. The group, which has a In the past five weeks, one city has shares in 2015 when Nanshan Group travel agency, aims to copy the model said it would take over an airline com- was embroiled in a corruption scandal. of Spring Travel, which set up bud- pletely, a province has put money into One stimulus for municipal invest- get carrier Spring Airlines in 2005. another to persuade it to shift its head- ment is the risk that a local carrier Spring’s agency business feeds traffic quarters, and two more HNA local car- could be rustled by another govern- to its sibling airline. riers have become the group’s latest to ment offering capital and support. Under the Hongtu name, Air Trav- receive investments from their home That happened with privately owned el began flying in 2016 with an Airbus municipalities. Injecting capital may be- Air Travel, an airline formerly based A321. It aimed at the tourism market come a more common way for Chinese in the southwestern province of Yun- in Yunnan. A few months before Tong- local governments to back local airlines, nan. It has moved to Changsha, the cheng bought control of the airline, the group made early moves to set up a re- gional carrier. That apparently has not proceeded, though Tongcheng has not said it has given up.

NANSHAN GROUP In 2018 HNA began relinquishing shareholdings in airlines it had set up for and with local governments, though it is not always clear whether new gov- ernment money has gone to the group or has simply strengthened the carrier in question. Although HNA has been under severe financial pressure, indus- try officials say it has excellent relations with the many Chinese provincial and municipal governments for which it has Qingdao Airlines has been taken into complete public ownership, part of a set up airlines. And those governments Chinese trend to support local carriers that help local economies. are often keen to provide further sup- port for what they see as their airlines. since the central government is dis- capital of Hunan, following investment The latest such transaction is a couraging industry subsidies (AW&ST from that province. “shareholding reorganization” of HNA’s Dec. 23, 2019-Jan. 12, 2020, p. 106). Hunan has become a 26% sharehold- Air Guilin with the government of its Qingdao Airlines is the carrier that er in Air Travel, the national corpora- home city, Guilin. The municipality will has been taken into complete public tion registry shows. Travel specialist become the indirect majority owner of ownership. The government of its home Tongcheng Group retains the largest the airline. HNA will continue to supply city, Qingdao in eastern China, is using a holding. The transaction was complet- managerial staff, the parties say. subsidiary to buy the airline along with ed in December. The arrangement is similar to a the other aviation assets of the private Hunan and Changsha are in the capital reorganization of HNA’s West Nanshan Group, including business avi- south-center of China’s main popula- Air announced on Dec. 2. In that case, ation operator Nanshan Jet. tion zone. Air Travel has 12 aircraft the government of the airline’s home- The reasons for the 6.85 billion yuan of the Airbus A320 family in four ver- town, Chongqing, agreed to increase its ($983 million) acquisition have not sions, including three A320neos. The shareholding to at least 70%. Again, op- been stated, but the five-year-old air- registered capital of Air Travel has erations remain an HNA responsibility. line has reported a profit only once, for risen by 694 million yuan, presumably West Air says it has four Airbus A319s 2017. Any Chinese municipal govern- the amount invested by the province. and 31 A320s, which operate 114 routes ment would be alarmed at the possible Announcing the transaction in Sep- serving 51 cities. c

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Chinese Governments tember, the government said it aimed Malaysia Faces Lengthy Process nam was granted Category 1 status in to develop Changsha Huanghua In- February 2019, although this was not Expand Airline Investments ternational Airport as a hub for cen- to Regain FAA Rating technically an upgrade since it had not tral China. The provincial and muni- previously been classified by the FAA. MALAYSIA IS THE LATEST ASIAN NATION HIT BY FAA DOWNGRADE ONE PRIVATE AIRLINE IS NOW UNDER FULL MUNICIPAL OWNERSHIP cipal governments covering Wuhan > Thailand is still attempting to regain > and Zhengzhou, cities to the north of FAA Category 1 status. The country’s FLAWS FOUND WITH REGULATORS, BUT RESTRICTIONS APPLY > SETTING UP A NEW MAINLINE CARRIER IS NOW DIFFICULT Changsha, have similar aims for their > oversight agency was downgraded in main airports. Until 2016 Hunan could TO AIRLINES late 2015. Thailand was also put on Bradley Perrett Beijing have gained a new airline by offering ICAO’s “red flag” list, which prompted capital and other incentives to an airline Adrian Schofield other nations to impose restrictions on rivate ownership is a dimin- closure of a local carrier, because air group, typically HNA, to establish one. Thai carriers. The ICAO warning has ishing factor in Chinese com- links are valued for helping to promote But the Civil Aviation Administration of viation oversight deficien- compliance with ICAO standards are since been removed, but Thailand re- Pmercial aviation—not because economic growth. Qingdao Airlines has China now is disinclined to license new cies are once again under the rated Category 1, while those that are mains in the FAA’s Category 2. the central government is trying to 25 Airbus A320s, of which 17 are leased. mainline passenger carriers. Aspotlight in Southeast Asia, not are classified as Category 2. Cur- Malaysia’s case is a little different stamp it out, but because the indus- The city was a shareholder in Faced with the same problem, as Malaysian authorities consider rently seven are in the latter category. from Thailand’s, as it has not been try keeps drawing investments from Qingdao Airlines when it began flying in Tongcheng bought control of Hongtu how they can convince the FAA to When a country is designated Cate- red-flagged by ICAO. The CAAM has supportive municipal and provincial 2014. The city and another official share- Airlines in 2017, changing the brand reverse its downgrade of the coun- gory 2, its airlines cannot add or start stressed that it is “fully in compliance governments. holder, Shandong Airlines, sold their to Air Travel. The group, which has a try’s safety rating. service to the U.S. While they can with all ICAO standards and legisla- In the past five weeks, one city has shares in 2015 when Nanshan Group travel agency, aims to copy the model Malaysian leaders recognize the im- maintain existing flights, they cannot tion,” having been audited by ICAO as said it would take over an airline com- was embroiled in a corruption scandal. of Spring Travel, which set up bud- portance of restoring the FAA safety change to a different aircraft type and recently as the middle of 2019. Howev- pletely, a province has put money into One stimulus for municipal invest- get carrier Spring Airlines in 2005. another to persuade it to shift its head- ment is the risk that a local carrier Spring’s agency business feeds traffic quarters, and two more HNA local car- could be rustled by another govern- to its sibling airline. Malaysia-based carriers such as AirAsia X have restrictions riers have become the group’s latest to ment offering capital and support. Under the Hongtu name, Air Trav- imposed on adding or changing service to the U.S. after the receive investments from their home That happened with privately owned el began flying in 2016 with an Airbus country’s regulator was downgraded by the FAA. municipalities. Injecting capital may be- Air Travel, an airline formerly based A321. It aimed at the tourism market come a more common way for Chinese in the southwestern province of Yun- in Yunnan. A few months before Tong- local governments to back local airlines, nan. It has moved to Changsha, the cheng bought control of the airline, the group made early moves to set up a re- gional carrier. That apparently has not proceeded, though Tongcheng has not said it has given up.

NANSHAN GROUP In 2018 HNA began relinquishing shareholdings in airlines it had set up for and with local governments, though it is not always clear whether new gov- ernment money has gone to the group or has simply strengthened the carrier in question. Although HNA has been under severe financial pressure, indus- TENGKU BAHAR/AFP-GETTY IMAGES try officials say it has excellent relations rating and are calling for urgency in are subject to heightened surveillance er, the CAAM also acknowledges that with the many Chinese provincial and addressing problems. However, the by the FAA. There are also certain the FAA is “within its rights” to make municipal governments for which it has recent history of similar downgrades restrictions on codeshares with U.S. its own assessment of compliance. Qingdao Airlines has been taken into complete public ownership, part of a set up airlines. And those governments in Asia shows that gaining an FAA up- airlines. The CAAM says it has asked the Chinese trend to support local carriers that help local economies. are often keen to provide further sup- grade can take years. And while the The FAA assigned a Category 1 rat- FAA to conduct a reassessment with- port for what they see as their airlines. FAA’s assessment applies only to the ing to Malaysia in 2003. The reassess- in the next 12 months. “Plans are al- since the central government is dis- capital of Hunan, following investment The latest such transaction is a regulator, it is the airlines that suffer ment was conducted in April 2019, and ready underway to address the find- couraging industry subsidies (AW&ST from that province. “shareholding reorganization” of HNA’s the commercial consequences. a meeting with the CAAM was held in ings of the [FAA] audit,” according to Dec. 22, 2019-Jan. 12, 2020, p. 106). Hunan has become a 26% sharehold- Air Guilin with the government of its The FAA announced in November July to discuss the results. The FAA a CAAM statement. Qingdao Airlines is the carrier that er in Air Travel, the national corpora- home city, Guilin. The municipality will that it would downgrade the safety rat- has not publicly released specifics of its The Malaysian regulator says it has been taken into complete public tion registry shows. Travel specialist become the indirect majority owner of ing of the Civil Aviation Authority of findings, but said the Category 2 rating “takes the FAA’s assessment construc- ownership. The government of its home Tongcheng Group retains the largest the airline. HNA will continue to supply Malaysia (CAAM) to Category 2, after means the CAAM “is deficient in one or tively and has moved to make serious city, Qingdao in eastern China, is using a holding. The transaction was complet- managerial staff, the parties say. determining the CAAM did not meet more areas, such as technical exper- changes in its structure and opera- subsidiary to buy the airline along with ed in December. The arrangement is similar to a International Civil Aviation Organiza- tise, trained personnel, record keeping, tions.” The CAAM’s CEO resigned just the other aviation assets of the private Hunan and Changsha are in the capital reorganization of HNA’s West tion (ICAO) safety standards. The FAA and/or inspection procedures.” before the downgrade, and a commit- Nanshan Group, including business avi- south-center of China’s main popula- Air announced on Dec. 2. In that case, conducted an audit in Malaysia in April Other Southeast Asian nations have tee has been established to oversee the ation operator Nanshan Jet. tion zone. Air Travel has 12 aircraft the government of the airline’s home- 2019, under its International Aviation been downgraded by the FAA in recent authority’s operations. The reasons for the 6.85 billion yuan of the Airbus A320 family in four ver- town, Chongqing, agreed to increase its Safety Assessment (IASA) program. years, including Indonesia, the Philip- “Some shortcomings do exist” in its ($983 million) acquisition have not sions, including three A320neos. The shareholding to at least 70%. Again, op- IASA enables the FAA to evaluate pines and Thailand. Indonesia was role as aviation regulator, the CAAM been stated, but the five-year-old air- registered capital of Air Travel has erations remain an HNA responsibility. the oversight capabilities of countries restored to Category 1 in August 2016, admits. It notes that the FAA audit cov- line has reported a profit only once, for risen by 694 million yuan, presumably West Air says it has four Airbus A319s that have airlines either serving the after being downgraded in 2007. The ered areas such as legislation, oversight, 2017. Any Chinese municipal govern- the amount invested by the province. and 31 A320s, which operate 114 routes U.S. or codesharing with U.S. carriers. Philippines was reduced to Category delegation of authority and the number ment would be alarmed at the possible Announcing the transaction in Sep- serving 51 cities. c National regulators found to be in full 2 in 2008 and upgraded in 2014. Viet- of technical personnel employed.

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In one early move, the government Malaysia Airlines flights, as required often needed major changes in legisla- has merged the CAAM with the Ma- by the FAA, although the Malaysian tion, procedures, staffing and resourc- laysian Aviation Commission, which is carrier can still codeshare on Ameri- es. Factors such as these “are not easily the economic and commercial regula- can Airlines flights. fixed in the short term,” says Herdman. tor. This merger will give the CAAM Like AirAsia X, Malaysia Airlines Increasing the number of trained more financial independence and help says it will “give its full support to and qualified staff can be a particular it hire more technical employees, says CAAM to [restore] its rating to Catego- problem for aviation regulators. Herd- Transport Minister Anthony Loke. ry 1.” The airline has been “continuous- man notes that oversight bodies are The only Malaysian carrier with ly and successfully recertified” under generally competing with airlines for direct service to the U.S. is AirAsia the IOSA program since 2005. Malay- the same personnel, and rapid growth X, which has a flight to Honolulu via sia Airlines also holds maintenance, in the region’s aviation industry has re- Osaka, Japan. The airline confirmed repair and overhaul approvals from duced their availability. Even when a it will maintain this service. AirAsia X the European Union Aviation Safety country’s aviation industry is thriving, has previously discussed serving the Agency and the FAA. All companies in its regulators can still face resource U.S. mainland with Airbus A330neos, the airline group “consistently subject and manpower issues, Herdman ex- but any such plans would be delayed by themselves to various audits to ensure plains. This can lead to oversight not the FAA downgrade. they are [on] par with international keeping pace with industry growth. While the downgrade is “disappoint- best practices in all aspects of safety Although the downgrade applies to ing,” AirAsia X will “remain committed management,” the carrier says. the regulator, it is still “commercially to supporting CAAM and our industry The CAAM could face a multiyear damaging to airlines,” Herdman says. colleagues in developing and maintain- process to address the FAA’s concerns For example, restrictions on code- ing the highest safety standards,” the and restore the country’s safety rat- shares with U.S. airlines have market- airline’s CEO Benyamin Ismail says. ing, warns Andrew Herdman, direc- ing and revenue implications. There is “By keeping the lines of communication tor general of the Association of Asia also the risk that other jurisdictions open with regulators and industry, we Pacific Airlines. may take the FAA findings into account are confident that Malaysia will soon While the FAA has not publicly when considering applications for new restore its Category 1 rating,” he adds. revealed its specific areas of concern service from Malaysian carriers. The airline stressed it has achieved ac- regarding the CAAM, recent experi- Airlines are usually eager to help creditation under the International Air ence with downgrades of other nations their national authorities regain FAA Transport Association’s Operational shows that “whatever the [FAA’s] find- Category 1 status, Herdman says. In Safety Audit (IOSA) program. ings are, remedying them takes time,” some cases, carriers have financed ex- Malaysia Airlines does not serve the Herdman tells Aviation Week. Malay- ternal experts to come to their coun- U.S. with its own flights. It relies on its sian regulators are showing urgency in tries to advise the regulatory bodies partners to provide codeshare access starting to address the FAA’s concerns, or to second their own qualified staff. to the U.S., particularly through fellow but “realistically it takes a year or two, However, Herdman stresses that it is Oneworld member American Air- or maybe longer,” he says. ultimately the governments and regu- lines. However, this arrangement has When other Asian countries have lators that have to be responsible for changed due to the FAA downgrade. been affected by FAA downgrades in improving oversight and providing American has stopped codesharing on recent years, their regulators have sufficient resources. c

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION DEFENSE

In one early move, the government Malaysia Airlines flights, as required often needed major changes in legisla- has merged the CAAM with the Ma- by the FAA, although the Malaysian tion, procedures, staffing and resourc- Death Claw Shows Path school rather than at the Air Force’s laysian Aviation Commission, which is carrier can still codeshare on Ameri- es. Factors such as these “are not easily laboratories, which, in fact, experi- the economic and commercial regula- can Airlines flights. fixed in the short term,” says Herdman. to Faster Development mented with similar concepts in the tor. This merger will give the CAAM Like AirAsia X, Malaysia Airlines Increasing the number of trained early 1980s. more financial independence and help says it will “give its full support to and qualified staff can be a particular > U.S. AIR FORCE DEVELOPING AUTO-GUNNERY MODE FOR F-16s The Air Force is growing impa- it hire more technical employees, says CAAM to [restore] its rating to Catego- problem for aviation regulators. Herd- tient with decades-long development Transport Minister Anthony Loke. ry 1.” The airline has been “continuous- man notes that oversight bodies are > TWO-YEAR-OLD DEMONSTRATION PROVED ACCURACY IMPROVEMENT programs. Acquisition leaders are The only Malaysian carrier with ly and successfully recertified” under generally competing with airlines for calling for ways to compress the de- direct service to the U.S. is AirAsia the IOSA program since 2005. Malay- the same personnel, and rapid growth Steve Trimble velopment phase for upgrades and X, which has a flight to Honolulu via sia Airlines also holds maintenance, in the region’s aviation industry has re- new platforms. The Digital Century Osaka, Japan. The airline confirmed repair and overhaul approvals from duced their availability. Even when a 40-year-old idea to improve demonstration program in late 2017 to Series launched in October is even it will maintain this service. AirAsia X the European Union Aviation Safety country’s aviation industry is thriving, strafing accuracy by transfer- prove it could work. seeking to invent a development pro- has previously discussed serving the Agency and the FAA. All companies in its regulators can still face resource Aring flight control of a manned “Some of our engineers were chat- cess that could field advanced new ca- U.S. mainland with Airbus A330neos, the airline group “consistently subject and manpower issues, Herdman ex- fighter to the autopilot to aim the gun ting about how it would be cool if an pabilities within five-year increments. but any such plans would be delayed by themselves to various audits to ensure plains. This can lead to oversight not is being revived as the U.S. Air Force autopilot could aim the gun,” Gray says. As much as the Air Force pushes to the FAA downgrade. they are [on] par with international keeping pace with industry growth. looks internally for innovations that The test pilot school owns the F-16 accelerate development, the ques- While the downgrade is “disappoint- best practices in all aspects of safety Although the downgrade applies to can be demonstrated and delivered Variable stability Inflight Simulator tion still remains how much schedule ing,” AirAsia X will “remain committed management,” the carrier says. the regulator, it is still “commercially quickly. Test Aircraft (VISTA), an aircraft compression is possible during the to supporting CAAM and our industry The CAAM could face a multiyear damaging to airlines,” Herdman says. An operational version of the Dig- specially modified to allow inflight test-and-evaluation phase. colleagues in developing and maintain- process to address the FAA’s concerns For example, restrictions on code- itally Enhanced Aiming Through changes to the flying qualities. “I re- In the case of Death Claw, the test ing the highest safety standards,” the and restore the country’s safety rat- shares with U.S. airlines have market- Control Law (Death Claw) system is alized it would be a relatively simple pilot school used a live demonstration airline’s CEO Benyamin Ismail says. ing, warns Andrew Herdman, direc- ing and revenue implications. There is in development less than two years modification to adjust the control of to prove a basic autopilot capability. “By keeping the lines of communication tor general of the Association of Asia also the risk that other jurisdictions after the U.S. Air Force Test Pilot that airplane to actually test this to do Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works is open with regulators and industry, we Pacific Airlines. may take the FAA findings into account School conceived and

are confident that Malaysia will soon While the FAA has not publicly when considering applications for new performed an eight- U.S. AIR FORCE restore its Category 1 rating,” he adds. revealed its specific areas of concern service from Malaysian carriers. month demonstration. The airline stressed it has achieved ac- regarding the CAAM, recent experi- Airlines are usually eager to help In effect, Death Claw creditation under the International Air ence with downgrades of other nations their national authorities regain FAA has two functions. As a Transport Association’s Operational shows that “whatever the [FAA’s] find- Category 1 status, Herdman says. In new automated flight Safety Audit (IOSA) program. ings are, remedying them takes time,” some cases, carriers have financed ex- mode, it solves a prac- Malaysia Airlines does not serve the Herdman tells Aviation Week. Malay- ternal experts to come to their coun- tical problem for pilots U.S. with its own flights. It relies on its sian regulators are showing urgency in tries to advise the regulatory bodies of F-16s and potentially partners to provide codeshare access starting to address the FAA’s concerns, or to second their own qualified staff. to the U.S., particularly through fellow but “realistically it takes a year or two, However, Herdman stresses that it is Flight tests showed Oneworld member American Air- or maybe longer,” he says. ultimately the governments and regu- aircraft-pointing lines. However, this arrangement has When other Asian countries have lators that have to be responsible for accuracy improves changed due to the FAA downgrade. been affected by FAA downgrades in improving oversight and providing significantly when American has stopped codesharing on recent years, their regulators have sufficient resources. c Death Claw is en- gaged (left) compared to pilot control. other fly-by-wire fighters. The system the concept exploration,” he says. now working on an improved opera- also highlights a path to introducing The Death Claw demonstration tional version of the new autopilot gun- aircraft upgrades faster by involving conducted 12 test flights in November nery mode, but the Air Force collected the test community up front. 2017-January 2018. The Air Force com- the data it needed to make a decision The practical problem has been pared the accuracy of autopilot-con- with a rudimentary system created known for decades. Like any modern trolled gun firings to pilot-controlled within four months in 2017. The test fighter, the F-16’s sensors and flight shots. The F-16 VISTA lacks a gun, but community also now has experience computer can precisely calculate accuracy was calculated based on how with the technology, which could help where the F-16 needs to be pointed for closely the aircraft was pointed com- focus the follow-on test schedule the 20-mm rounds from the fighter’s pared to the gunsight-piper. In almost “Bring the test enterprise in early, M61 cannon to hit a moving target in every attempt, the autopilot proved so that we can help define what those the air or on the ground. But the com- more accurate than the pilot at aiming questions are that we have to answer,” puter still relies on the human pilot to the aircraft. says Col. Mark Massaro, chief of the accurately point the aircraft at the spot “To a P-51 pilot, the gun was pre - Air Force’s test and evaluation group’s indicated on the gunsight-piper on the cise, it was your precision. Well, now policy, programs and resources division head-up display. the gun is the least precise weapon on at the Pentagon. “If you make your de- The answer seems obvious. Add the F-16,” Gray says. “Death Claw was sign consider these particular things, an “auto-gunnery mode” to the flight basically a project to make the gun a you might be able to get a better design control law, and allow the autopilot precision weapon.” coming out of it, or you may be able to control to point the aircraft when the In the process, it showed a different help testing go quicker, because you’re gun is engaged. Bill Gray, chief test pi- way of approaching innovation. The designing in the ability to get the data lot of the test pilot school, launched a idea was conceived at the test pilot that we need out of it during design.” c

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Eye-Tracking System Seen The word’s similarity with “hindsight” was not intended but makes sense. as New Aid for Pilot Training Dehais’ team participated in a wide-ranging experiment led by the > LAB SPINOFF OFFERS TOOL TO ENHANCE SIMULATOR SESSIONS BEA, the French bureau of air accident investigations, in 2012-13. It focused on > EYE-TRACKING TO BECOME WIDESPREAD IN DAILY LIFE the loss of situational awareness during an unexpected go-around. It was one of Thierry Dubois Toulouse the first major studies that underlined the role of eye-tracking in understand- fter a training session in a flight be seen. Some examples include: game ing a pilot’s behavior and possibly im- simulator, the instructor gives consoles and inflight entertainment proving human performance. Acritical feedback to the student systems that include eye-tracking and The BEA and its partners document- pilot. Depending on the appraisal, the high-end cars that use eye-tracking ed situations when pilots no longer co- student may gain self-confidence, cor- systems to detect distraction. L3 has operate or monitor the aircraft’s speed. rect errors or pass an exam. However, delivered simulators with eye-track- Thanks to eye-tracking, “the pilot could as with every human-to-human pro- ing systems for the use of head-up take a step back and reflect on his ocular cess, it is not perfect. displays. strategy,” says Vandebrouck. The BEA Sometimes, the instructor notices The laboratory in which Hinfact was recommended OEMs study visual pat- the student has failed to complete a born is the neuroergonomics and hu- terns to improve cockpit procedures. procedure but the student is adamant man factors department of the ISAE Hinfact’s target customers are carri- he or she has checked every item. SupAero, or the French national high- ers and training centers. Gazecraft can Sometimes, a mistake goes unnoticed. er institute of aeronautics and space’s be customized at the user’s level. HINFACT If a number of students fail in a giv- en procedure, the chief instructor will be notified, and the procedure may be questioned. Vandebrouck hopes to sign the first sales contract in the middle of this year. Thus far, some revenues have come from airlines that have integrated Gazecraft into simulators for evaluation purposes. “Integration is a lot of work,” says Vandebrouck. “We have to install the cameras and stream the simulator’s data to our system.” One of Gazecraft’s main design driv- ers is the need to monitor a behavior, he emphasizes. The interface therefore For the instructor, using an eye-tracking system and accompanying tablet was made as straightforward as pos- may help provide more relevant feedback to the student. sible. In contrast, a comparable tool designed by Thales for helicopter pilot training produces a number of graph- Hinfact, a startup company created engineering division. Frederic Dehais, ics for an instructor. Dubbed HuMans, as a spinoff from a research laborato- head of the department and a Hinfact it was designed to help an instructor ry in Toulouse, may have developed a co-founder, received a Laureate Award understand a pilot’s cognitive state. solution with its Gazecraft system. The from Aviation Week in 2019. Such tools may help in critical solution makes the most of eye-track- Gazecraft’s designers strived to flight phases, suggests Vincent Gilles, ing, thanks to systems that are increas- alleviate the instructor’s workload. vice president of the SNPL France ingly cheap, easy to install, and accurate A high level of automation for watch- Alpa airline pilots union. “During and reliable. Gazecraft is part of a trend ing students was devised to help the approach and landing, the transition in which new tools may make training instructor make relevant comments between instrument flight and the more effective. And at a time when the after a 4-hr. training session. exclusive use of external visual cues global demand for pilots is growing, the Using a tablet, an instructor can is key,” he says. tools may be adopted quickly. bookmark an event for reference If eye-tracking proves useful in Gazecraft monitors the pilot’s adher- during the post-training discussion. training, what may be next? In Europe, ence to a procedure. The system can After the session, the instructor can beginning in 2022, the automotive in- notice the absence of a control input, replay a sequence to show the student dustry will have to integrate systems a forgotten gaze at an instrument or a missed a step. They use recorded facts to detect drowsiness and distraction missed callout to another crewmember. as opposed to subjective memory. The in every new car. This may contribute Hinfact’s Gazecraft system also “H” in Hinfact stands for “human,” says to a cultural change when it comes to marks the success of eye-tracking, co-founder and Chief Technology Offi- monitoring a driver and thereby open whose utility may just be beginning to cer Thibault Vandebrouck. the door to inflight pilot monitoring.c

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SIMULATION AND TRAINING TECHNOLOGY

Eye-Tracking System Seen The word’s similarity with “hindsight” was not intended but makes sense. as New Aid for Pilot Training Dehais’ team participated in a wide-ranging experiment led by the > LAB SPINOFF OFFERS TOOL TO ENHANCE SIMULATOR SESSIONS BEA, the French bureau of air accident investigations, in 2012-13. It focused on > EYE-TRACKING TO BECOME WIDESPREAD IN DAILY LIFE the loss of situational awareness during an unexpected go-around. It was one of Thierry Dubois Toulouse the first major studies that underlined the role of eye-tracking in understand- fter a training session in a flight be seen. Some examples include: game ing a pilot’s behavior and possibly im- simulator, the instructor gives consoles and inflight entertainment proving human performance. Acritical feedback to the student systems that include eye-tracking and The BEA and its partners document- pilot. Depending on the appraisal, the high-end cars that use eye-tracking ed situations when pilots no longer co- student may gain self-confidence, cor- systems to detect distraction. L3 has operate or monitor the aircraft’s speed. Inflight encephalography measures rect errors or pass an exam. However, delivered simulators with eye-track- Thanks to eye-tracking, “the pilot could the workload in a pilot brain’s and as with every human-to-human pro- ing systems for the use of head-up take a step back and reflect on his ocular displays active areas. cess, it is not perfect. displays. strategy,” says Vandebrouck. The BEA

Sometimes, the instructor notices The laboratory in which Hinfact was recommended OEMs study visual pat- ISAE SUPAERO/INTHEON the student has failed to complete a born is the neuroergonomics and hu- terns to improve cockpit procedures. procedure but the student is adamant man factors department of the ISAE Hinfact’s target customers are carri- Research on Brain Activity EEG. The pilot hears regular bass he or she has checked every item. SupAero, or the French national high- ers and training centers. Gazecraft can and treble beeps throughout the flight Sometimes, a mistake goes unnoticed. er institute of aeronautics and space’s be customized at the user’s level. To Help Cockpit Design and is requested to mentally count the HINFACT If a number of students fail in a giv- treble ones. The point in gathering en procedure, the chief instructor will BRAIN “CONNECTION” LINKED TO EFFECTIVE COOPERATION electrophysiological parameters is to be notified, and the procedure may be > correlate them with flight phases and, questioned. FUTURE FLIGHT DECKS MAY INCLUDE AI AND ATTENTION MONITORING more precisely, the flightpath. Vandebrouck hopes to sign the first > During the taxi phase, for a person sales contract in the middle of this year. Thierry Dubois Toulouse without regular practice, counting is Thus far, some revenues have come still doable. But as soon as the work- from airlines that have integrated light crews are not always on the They must communicate to accomplish load increases, such as during takeoff Gazecraft into simulators for evaluation same wavelength, but advances different tasks in a common goal. and turns, it is not. Conversely, the purposes. “Integration is a lot of work,” Fin artificial intelligence (AI) may Electroencephalography (EEG) test flight instructor’s workload is so says Vandebrouck. “We have to install help solve that gap and also improve shows “connected” brain areas when low that, as he demonstrates the aero- the cameras and stream the simulator’s human-machine interaction. cooperation is successful. At the same dynamics of a flat turn, he notices the data to our system.” The phrase “being on the same time, heartbeats partly synchronize, pilot’s glance at a “low fuel” light (a be- One of Gazecraft’s main design driv- wavelength” traces its roots to radio says Frederic Dehais, head of the de- nign artifact). ers is the need to monitor a behavior, communications. It is even more mean- partment. Whether the apparent brain An encephalogram confirms an im- he emphasizes. The interface therefore ingful than it seems. The brains of two and heart connections are a cause or a pression of overload. For the instructor, using an eye-tracking system and accompanying tablet was made as straightforward as pos- people who cooperate effectively have consequence of good cooperation has After the flight, the pilot is unable may help provide more relevant feedback to the student. sible. In contrast, a comparable tool brain waves in key areas running on the yet to be ascertained. to evaluate its duration. The brain had designed by Thales for helicopter pilot same frequency band, recent research The experiment has also been used categorized measuring time, as count- training produces a number of graph- work shows. to study human-AI cooperation. The ing beeps, as irrelevant. Hinfact, a startup company created engineering division. Frederic Dehais, ics for an instructor. Dubbed HuMans, Such progress in neuroscience, human operator was not told when AI The beeps the pilot is supposed to as a spinoff from a research laborato- head of the department and a Hinfact it was designed to help an instructor applied to human factors in aviation, was replacing the other participating count serve as a probe, says Dehais. ry in Toulouse, may have developed a co-founder, received a Laureate Award understand a pilot’s cognitive state. opens up possibilities for improving human. The test proved it is best if They elicit different brain responses solution with its Gazecraft system. The from Aviation Week in 2019. Such tools may help in critical crew coordination. It may help make both AI and the human operator strict- depending on workload. Dehais is look- solution makes the most of eye-track- Gazecraft’s designers strived to flight phases, suggests Vincent Gilles, relevant use of AI. In parallel, nonintru- ly use the agreed-on phraseology. ing for another stimulus that could be ing, thanks to systems that are increas- alleviate the instructor’s workload. vice president of the SNPL France sive monitoring of a pilot’s brain during Analysis is ongoing, but an outcome unconscious but that would trigger a ingly cheap, easy to install, and accurate A high level of automation for watch- Alpa airline pilots union. “During flight may help them better perceive may be to design a communications cerebral response. The pilot would no and reliable. Gazecraft is part of a trend ing students was devised to help the approach and landing, the transition their own workload. system that switches to AI if it notices longer have to count, but workload in which new tools may make training instructor make relevant comments between instrument flight and the The neuroergonomics and human poor cooperation. would still be measured. more effective. And at a time when the after a 4-hr. training session. exclusive use of external visual cues factors department of ISAE Supaero, Dehais’ team is upgrading its flight Experiments have shown the brain global demand for pilots is growing, the Using a tablet, an instructor can is key,” he says. the French national higher institute simulator to enable similar observation processes some information even tools may be adopted quickly. bookmark an event for reference If eye-tracking proves useful in of aeronautics and space engineering of a commercial crew. In that environ- if we are not aware of perceiving it. Gazecraft monitors the pilot’s adher- during the post-training discussion. training, what may be next? In Europe, division, has been working on how to ment, resorting to AI would be offered The brain processes every stimulus ence to a procedure. The system can After the session, the instructor can beginning in 2022, the automotive in- determine whether two people are co- as an option or automated, depending but keeps only those relevant for the notice the absence of a control input, replay a sequence to show the student dustry will have to integrate systems ordinating well. on the pilots’ mental state (such as task at hand, says Dehais. If a stimulus a forgotten gaze at an instrument or a missed a step. They use recorded facts to detect drowsiness and distraction The framework is France’s Man overloaded) and level of cooperation. does not even elicit an unconscious re- missed callout to another crewmember. as opposed to subjective memory. The in every new car. This may contribute Machine Teaming (MMT) defense re- During a flight on a single-engine sponse, it means the brain is really too Hinfact’s Gazecraft system also “H” in Hinfact stands for “human,” says to a cultural change when it comes to search program. In an experiment, two Socata TB20, Aviation Week tested busy, says Dehais. marks the success of eye-tracking, co-founder and Chief Technology Offi- monitoring a driver and thereby open people play the role of a fighter pilot pilot brain monitoring. A headset is He sees his work as eventually find- whose utility may just be beginning to cer Thibault Vandebrouck. the door to inflight pilot monitoring.c and a joint terminal attack controller. equipped with electrodes for a live ing a way to prevent the onset of at-

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 31 TECHNOLOGY

tention tunneling. “Humans have the France Bureau Chief Thierry Dubois ex- capability to deal with complexity, but perienced live electroencephalography the brain selects among pieces of infor- while flying a Socata TB20 light single mation,” he says. to measure the workload in a pilot To prevent tunneling, the pilot’s vi- sual pattern may be followed. If it fails brain’s during various phases of flight. to meet predefined expectations, a some of its own activity. Such active system may request the pilot to take inhibition has a cost, Dehais says. a deep breath and check situational Some other mechanisms are better awareness, Dehais suggests. known, such as why changing habits Or the pilot may be trained to reach is difficult. “Learning and automating a high level of concentration. That level decisions is a long process, and then may be displayed on a light, the color they are engraved; finding a new strat- of which would vary with brain waves. egy is costly,” says Dehais. This is why The pilot could thus monitor his or her FREDERIC DEHAIS/ISAE-SUPAERO crews too rarely perform a go-around own mental state. in prey-predator behaviors, Dehais sug- when facing difficulties in approach. Many aspects of brain function re- gests. But then the way the brain uses “The brain’s perspective is that landing main intriguing. The origin of attention energy is paradoxical. In an attention works every time, while a go-around is a tunneling, for example, might be found tunneling situation, the brain inhibits series of actions it seldom performs.” c

BUSINESS

greater portions of A&D systems and The New Trend in Acquisitions: parts may well become more common- place. Last summer, L3 Technologies Mergers of Equal But Different and Harris paired to form L3Harris Technologies. By summer 2020, Unit- > SUPPLIERS WOODWARD, HEXCEL PROPOSE MERGER OF EQUALS ed Technologies and Raytheon are expected to close their own “merger > MAJOR SUPPLIERS, SPECIALISTS SEEK SAFETY IN SIZE AND DIVERSITY of equals” to become Raytheon Tech- nologies. Michael Bruno Washington “I think this deal is very similar to several other aerospace deals that oodward, Hexcel, United A330neo and A350; the Boeing 737 we’ve seen the last three, four years,” Technologies, Raytheon, L3 MAX, 777X, 787 and Apache helicop- Credit Suisse analyst Rob Spingarn WTechnologies and Harris at ter; Bombardier Global 7500; Embraer says of Woodward Hexcel. “Right off first glance have relatively little in E-Jets E2; Gulfstream G500/600; and the bat, it looks a lot like Harris and common except that they are most- Lockheed Martin F-35 and CH-53. L3. If you line up the PowerPoint pre- ly midsize suppliers and specialists Perhaps more important for share- sentations from the two deals, they are primarily serving the aerospace and holders, the “merger of equals” be - almost mirror images of each other.” defense (A&D) market. tween Woodward and Hexcel could To that end, all of these compa- Increasingly, that is exactly why increase shareholder value. Accord- nies have talked about increasing the they are pairing up—and if other re- ing to the companies, their combined amount they spend on research and cent deals are an indication, it could revenue of $5.3 billion would place development (R&D). However, the be one of the leading trends this year a merged Woodward Hexcel sixth so-called synergies from the combi- in A&D mergers and acquisitions among major A&D suppliers (see nation of Raytheon Technologies are (M&A). chart). What is more, the combined years off—assuming they occur at On Jan. 12, aircraft motion-control company, which will be based in Fort all—while rewards for shareholders specialist Woodward and compos- Collins, Colorado, should generate will be almost immediate. ites leader Hexcel proposed a stock about $1 billion in free cash flow— The CEOs of Woodward and Hexcel merger that would create one of the the proceeds from which could boost assert they will spend $250 million on largest independent A&D suppliers, shareholder returns in its first year. R&D in the first full year after the deal with capabilities spanning wing and Around $1.5 billion is expected to be closes, which according to analysts, is engine parts to advanced materials sent to shareholders within 18 months roughly in line with what they were used to make aircraft construction of the deal’s completion, which is ex- going to spend separately. At the same lighter. The companies have minimal pected to close in the third quarter of time, the combined company expects sales overlap, which could help ease 2020. to cut at least $125 million worth of approval by antitrust regulators. Initially, financial analysts who recurring and redundant costs. The combined company, Woodward cover publicly traded A&D compa- Of course, each deal has its own Hexcel, would hold key supplier posi- nies were surprised by the proposed criteria for justification: United Tech- tions on most major A&D programs, combination. But tie-ups that see mid- nologies looked to gain heft to fight including: the Airbus A220, A320neo, size specialists combining to provide off Airbus and Boeing supply-chain

32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS How 1+1 Makes Sixth With Woodward and Hexcel tention tunneling. “Humans have the France Bureau Chief Thierry Dubois ex- How 1+1 Makes Sixth With Woodward and Hexcel capability to deal with complexity, but perienced live electroencephalography Premier Independent erospace and efense Supplier b eenue the brain selects among pieces of infor- while flying a Socata TB20 light single Premier Independent erospace and efense Supplier b eenue mation,” he says. to measure the workload in a pilot To prevent tunneling, the pilot’s vi- sual pattern may be followed. If it fails brain’s during various phases of flight. to meet predefined expectations, a some of its own activity. Such active Spirit AeroSystemsArconic AerospaceTransDigm MTU Aero GKN Aero WoodwardTriumph Hexcel Meggitt Parker HannifinCurtiss-Wright Aero Heico Hexcel Eaton AeroMoog Woodward Senior AerospaceCrane Aero Latecoere& ElectronicsAstronics Barnes AerospaceHeroux system may request the pilot to take inhibition has a cost, Dehais says. Spirit AeroSystemsArconic AerospaceTransDigm MTU Aero GKN Aero WoodwardTriumph Hexcel Meggitt Parker HannifinCurtiss-Wright Aero Heico Hexcel Eaton AeroMoog Woodward Senior AerospaceCrane Aero Latecoere& ElectronicsAstronics Barnes AerospaceHeroux a deep breath and check situational Some other mechanisms are better awareness, Dehais suggests. known, such as why changing habits Or the pilot may be trained to reach is difficult. “Learning and automating a high level of concentration. That level decisions is a long process, and then Sources: Woodward and Hexcel may be displayed on a light, the color they are engraved; finding a new strat- of which would vary with brain waves. egy is costly,” says Dehais. This is why squeezes; Raytheon needed deeper in 2020, although not universally But consolidation in space may take The pilot could thus monitor his or her FREDERIC DEHAIS/ISAE-SUPAERO crews too rarely perform a go-around pockets to fund defense technology across the industry. top billing among the bevy of startups own mental state. in prey-predator behaviors, Dehais sug- when facing difficulties in approach. plays; and L3 and Harris each want- For instance, subtier commercial funded by the venture capital surge of Many aspects of brain function re- gests. But then the way the brain uses “The brain’s perspective is that landing ed to become defense primes. Last but aviation suppliers like “mom and pop recent years, with major assets such as main intriguing. The origin of attention energy is paradoxical. In an attention works every time, while a go-around is a not least, Woodward and Hexcel CEOs shops” will continue to be gobbled Maxar Technologies’ MDA subsidiary tunneling, for example, might be found tunneling situation, the brain inhibits series of actions it seldom performs.” c say they see genuine opportunities up, especially by private equity (PE) being sold to PE investors at the end to help commercial aviation become investors directly or through holding of December. more sustainable through the lighter, companies as they seek to form new Space-sector combinations could be BUSINESS more efficient design of aircraft and middleweight suppliers. Defense tech- another major trend for 2020, accord- engines. nology specialists also remain hot tar- ing to Matt O’Connell, managing part- greater portions of A&D systems and A&D M&A consultants are prepar- gets, as evidenced by the mid-Decem- ner at Seraphim Capital—the firm that The New Trend in Acquisitions: parts may well become more common- ing to release their year-end summa- ber announcement that government funded the buildup of GeoEye, now a place. Last summer, L3 Technologies ries for 2019, but dealmakers already services heavyweight Leidos is buying core part of Maxar after MDA. “I think Mergers of Equal But Different and Harris paired to form L3Harris are telling Aviation Week they expect boutique aircraft and defense systems there are a lot of deals out there, wait- Technologies. By summer 2020, Unit- a robust environment for M&A deals provider Dynetics for $1.65 billion. ing to be done,” he says. c > SUPPLIERS WOODWARD, HEXCEL PROPOSE MERGER OF EQUALS ed Technologies and Raytheon are expected to close their own “merger > MAJOR SUPPLIERS, SPECIALISTS SEEK SAFETY IN SIZE AND DIVERSITY of equals” to become Raytheon Tech- nologies. Michael Bruno Washington “I think this deal is very similar to several other aerospace deals that oodward, Hexcel, United A330neo and A350; the Boeing 737 we’ve seen the last three, four years,” MARCH 12, 2020 | Washington, DC Technologies, Raytheon, L3 MAX, 777X, 787 and Apache helicop- Credit Suisse analyst Rob Spingarn Category Winners Announced! WTechnologies and Harris at ter; Bombardier Global 7500; Embraer says of Woodward Hexcel. “Right off first glance have relatively little in E-Jets E2; Gulfstream G500/600; and the bat, it looks a lot like Harris and common except that they are most- Lockheed Martin F-35 and CH-53. L3. If you line up the PowerPoint pre- Celebrate the year’s most outstanding ly midsize suppliers and specialists Perhaps more important for share- sentations from the two deals, they are primarily serving the aerospace and holders, the “merger of equals” be - almost mirror images of each other.” contributors to aviation, aerospace and defense. defense (A&D) market. tween Woodward and Hexcel could To that end, all of these compa- Increasingly, that is exactly why increase shareholder value. Accord- nies have talked about increasing the COMMERCIAL AVIATION SPACE Platforms – Airbus A321LR Launch Services – Spaceflight Industries they are pairing up—and if other re- ing to the companies, their combined amount they spend on research and Leadership – David Neeleman, Airline Entrepreneur Space Science – Chang’e 4 Moon Landing cent deals are an indication, it could revenue of $5.3 billion would place development (R&D). However, the Airline Strategy – Adel Ali, CEO, Air Arabia Platforms – Mars Cube One Mission be one of the leading trends this year a merged Woodward Hexcel sixth so-called synergies from the combi- Propulsion – Rolls-Royce Operations – HawkEye 360 in A&D mergers and acquisitions among major A&D suppliers (see nation of Raytheon Technologies are Sustainability – Boeing ecoDemonstrator Propulsion – Reaction Engines (M&A). chart). What is more, the combined years off—assuming they occur at Air Traffic Management – Aireon Supplier Innovation – OneWeb Satellites On Jan. 12, aircraft motion-control company, which will be based in Fort all—while rewards for shareholders MRO – Donecle Technology & Innovation – RemoveDEBRIS Mission specialist Woodward and compos- Collins, Colorado, should generate will be almost immediate. DEFENSE BUSINESS AVIATION ites leader Hexcel proposed a stock about $1 billion in free cash flow— The CEOs of Woodward and Hexcel Platforms – Bell V-280 Valor Platform – Gulfstream G500/G600 merger that would create one of the the proceeds from which could boost assert they will spend $250 million on Best New Product – Embraer KC-390 Safety – Garmin Autoland largest independent A&D suppliers, shareholder returns in its first year. R&D in the first full year after the deal Manufacturing – Northrop Grumman F-35 Propulsion – Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6E with capabilities spanning wing and Around $1.5 billion is expected to be closes, which according to analysts, is Center Fuselage Production Operations – Rega Swiss Air-Rescue engine parts to advanced materials sent to shareholders within 18 months roughly in line with what they were MRO – BAE Systems Typhoon Total MRO – Robotic Skies Availability Enterprise Technology & Innovation – Wing Aviation used to make aircraft construction of the deal’s completion, which is ex- going to spend separately. At the same Propulsion – AFRL Medium Scale Critical lighter. The companies have minimal pected to close in the third quarter of time, the combined company expects Components Scramjet Program LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT sales overlap, which could help ease 2020. to cut at least $125 million worth of Technology & Innovation – Kratos XQ-58 Valkyrie Robert Leduc – President, Pratt & Whitney approval by antitrust regulators. Initially, financial analysts who recurring and redundant costs. Weapons – Missile Defense Agency Ground-based The combined company, Woodward cover publicly traded A&D compa- Of course, each deal has its own Midcourse Defense FTG-11 Join the Celebration Hexcel, would hold key supplier posi- nies were surprised by the proposed criteria for justification: United Tech- laureates.aviationweek.com tions on most major A&D programs, combination. But tie-ups that see mid- nologies looked to gain heft to fight including: the Airbus A220, A320neo, size specialists combining to provide off Airbus and Boeing supply-chain

32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 33 SPACE Moon Rocket Core Stage Ships Out for Testing Irene Klotz New Orleans hen the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump de- Wcided last year to speed up NASA’s human lunar exploration blue- print by four years, it immediately hit a formidable obstacle: The fi rst Space Launch System (SLS) core stage , ear- marked for an uncrewed mid-2020 fl ight test around the Moon, was not ex- pected to be fi nished until August 2020. To save time, NASA considered skip- ping a green-run test-fi ring of the core’s four shuttle-era Aerojet Rocketdyne RS-25 engines at the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi. The agency mulled other launch-vehicle options to the long-delayed and overbudget SLS. > STATIC TEST FIRE Ultimately, NASA challenged prime EXPECTED MIDYEAR contractor Boeing to come up with a plan to complete assembly of the fi rst > SECOND CORE BUILD core stage by the end of 2019. UNDERWAY With a fi nal push over the holidays, the 212-ft.-long (65-m), 27.6-ft.-dia. vehicle rolled out Jan. 8 from NASA’s Michoud Assembly Facility in eastern New Orleans and was loaded onto NASA’s refurbished Pegasus barge for shipment to Stennis Space Center in Bay St. Louis, Mississippi. Pulled by two tugboats, the barge departed at 2:40 a.m. on Jan. 12 and reached Stennis 14 hr. later, setting the

NASA Human Spacefl ight Plans, 2005-20 2010 NASA adapts requirements for the NASA begins work on the Constellation human Constellation launch vehicle space ight program, aiming to return humans and crew capsule, continuing to the Moon and send a crew to Mars. Included development through the development of Ares 1 launch vehicle and Orion Space Launch System (SLS) Crew Exploration Vehicle. and Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle programs.

Facing acquisition and funding issues, the Obama administration cancels Constellation in February. 2011-12

Sources: analss o S docuens and ror reors S oos 2005

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE

The 212-ft.-long Space Launch Moon Rocket Core Stage System core stage heads out from stage for a series of integrated propul- services industry has transformed, an assembly hangar at NASA’s sion system tests on the B-2 test stand with private companies, including Michoud Assembly Facility in east that will take most of the year. If the SpaceX and Blue Origin, bankrolling Ships Out for Testing New Orleans on Jan. 8, heading to the green run goes as planned, the vehi- development of superheavy-lift, hu- waiting Pegasus barge for transport to cle should be shipped out to Kennedy man-class, deep-space transportation Irene Klotz New Orleans Stennis Space Center in Mississippi. Space Center in Florida in late August systems. NASA is counting on private or September, says John Shannon, industry partnerships to develop lu- hen the administration of U.S. Boeing SLS program manager. nar landing systems in time to support President Donald Trump de- “Seven years ago, we had a prelim- a targeted 2024 crewed mission to the Wcided last year to speed up inary design and no real factory, and Moon’s south pole. For now, the SLS, NASA’s human lunar exploration blue- here she is,” Jim Chilton, senior vice with an initial lift capacity of 77 tons to print by four years, it immediately hit president of Boeing’s Space and Launch low Earth orbit (or roughly 57,000 lb. a formidable obstacle: The fi rst Space division, told several hundred employ- to trans-lunar injection) is the quick- Launch System (SLS) core stage , ear- ees gathered at the Michoud plant to est route to get there. marked for an uncrewed mid-2020 watch the core stage depart. SLS development—accounting for fl ight test around the Moon, was not ex- “This is not a trivial accomplish- more than $10 billion in costs to date — pected to be fi nished until August 2020. ment. In the last year and a half, the has been largely paced by the core To save time, NASA considered skip- NASA-Boeing team invented how to stage, which is powered by four refur- ping a green-run test-fi ring of the core’s build one of these things,” Chilton add- bished liquid-hydrogen- and liquid-oxy- four shuttle-era Aerojet Rocketdyne ed, noting that the SLS core stage is gen-fed RS-25 engines previously used RS-25 engines at the Stennis Space roughly equivalent to the instrument for multiple space shuttle missions. Center in Mississippi. The agency unit and two stages of a Saturn V Boeing grappled with technical is- mulled other launch-vehicle options to rocket NASA built more than 50 years sues up until the night before the core the long-delayed and overbudget SLS. > STATIC TEST FIRE ago to send astronauts to the Moon stage rollout. The last problem to crop Ultimately, NASA challenged prime EXPECTED MIDYEAR under the Apollo program. up was how to attach a protective cov- contractor Boeing to come up with a “Nothing this complicated has ever er onto the vehicle’s forward section, plan to complete assembly of the fi rst > SECOND CORE BUILD come out of this factory,” says Shan- as winds were too high to do the work core stage by the end of 2019. UNDERWAY non, a former NASA fl ight director and outside as planned. In a fl ight confi g- With a fi nal push over the holidays, space shuttle program manager. The uration, the core stage forward skirt the 212-ft.-long (65-m), 27.6-ft.-dia. Boeing team, he adds , comprising 400 will be beneath the upper stage and vehicle rolled out Jan. 8 from NASA’s engineers and 250 technicians, “has covered by an adapter. Michoud Assembly Facility in eastern built a new capability for the nation that A small team came up with the idea to New Orleans and was loaded onto is going to be used over and over again.” fl ip the vehicle, which had been backed NASA’s refurbished Pegasus barge for Or not. Following the cancellation into Michoud’s Building 110, so that the shipment to Stennis Space Center in of the predecessor Constellation lunar forward section was inside the high bay. Bay St. Louis, Mississippi. initiative under the administration of The cover could then be installed inside Pulled by two tugboats, the barge former U.S. President Barack Obama, the hangar, bypassing weather issues. departed at 2:40 a.m. on Jan. 12 and NASA kicked oœ the SLS program in The fi nal “pucker moment,” Shannon reached Stennis 14 hr. later, setting the 2011. But in the years since, the launch says , came as technicians attempted to ASA NASA Human Spacefl ight Plans, 2005-20 2010 NASA adapts Under the Journey to Mars campaign, NASA 2020 requirements for the develops capabilities to send astronauts In March, the White House directs NASA begins work on the Constellation human Constellation launch vehicle to Mars. The plan includes the Asteroid NASA to accelerate the timeline space ight program, aiming to return humans and crew capsule, continuing Redirect Mission, which entailed sending to land humans on the Moon in to the Moon and send a crew to Mars. Included 2017 development through the astronauts to an asteroid boulder that 2024. NASA in May requests an development of Ares 1 launch vehicle and Orion Space Launch System (SLS) NASA would have placed in lunar orbit to additional $1.6 billion in ‹ scal Crew Exploration Vehicle. and Orion Multi-Purpose test technologies for deep-space missions. 2020 to speed up the timeline. It Crew Vehicle programs. The program was canceled in 2017. receives $600 million.

President Donald Trump signs Space First SLS core stage reach- Facing acquisition and funding Policy Directive 1 in December, calling es Stennis Space Center in issues, the Obama administration for the U.S. to lead the return of humans January for green-run test, cancels Constellation in February. to the Moon for long-term exploration culminating in a mid-year and utilization, followed by missions static ‹ ring of the core’s 2011-12 2015 to Mars and other destinations. four RS-25 engines. NASA establishes the goal of landing 2019 Sources: analss o S docuens and ror reors S oos astronauts on the Moon by 2028. 2005

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 3 SPACE NASA

The first SLS core stage will be put through a series of tests at NASA’s Stennis Space Center, culminating in a full-duration static test fire expected in June.

attach the cover, since the practice run SLS core, particularly since the first on the core stage pathfinder, which was build of the vehicle—which comprises slightly out of round, was not success- a forward skirt, liquid oxygen tank, in- ful. “Once we got that forward cover tertank, liquid hydrogen tank and en- on, I knew we could make it,” he says. gine section—served as both manufac- Boeing’s real breakthrough came turing prototype and flight hardware. in early 2019, when, faced with an un- “We’re actually building the system acceptable eight-month delay, a small to build a lot of these core stages, and team came up with a plan to assem- we’re putting the system together in Go beyond the ble the stage horizontally, rather than parallel with building the first one,” news of the day vertically. That enabled parallel oper- says NASA SLS Program Manager ations so assembly was not dependent John Honeycutt. “That’s not normally with Aviation Week on completion of the complicated en- the way you do things. We had a flat gine section at the base of the vehicle. budget; we didn’t have this big develop- Intelligence Network’s “That was a big thing,” Shannon ment spike, so we worked really, really tells Aviation Week. “People thought hard to be as efficient as we could.” Market Briefi ngs. we were going to build a rocket one Also contributing to the problems way for about five years, and they was a perspective that since Boeing • Stay ahead of the were really wedded to the idea. had built the International Space Sta- “When we first went out and said, tion and currently builds airplanes, it market ‘We think we have a better way to do should be able to build a rocket as well, • Identify new this’ . . . I got told a couple times that Honeycutt adds. it was a harebrained scheme,” he says. “We basically just had an empty opportunities In March, after Vice President Mike factory for them, and I think there Pence, who chairs the National Space was a mindset that they have a facili- • Drive revenue Council, called on NASA to speed ty, they have a design. Why can’t they up its planned 2028 Moon landing to just build a rocket? We were seeing 2024, Boeing “really got the message schedule improvement along the way, Learn more: that we had to do something com- and if you look back over the last 12-18 aviationweek.com/ pletely different,” Shannon adds. months, Boeing did a pretty dang good The same team that hatched the job holding schedule,” Honeycutt says. marketbriefi ngs horizontal work plan handled final ve- With the first core stage at Sten- hicle assembly and integration. “The nis for testing, Boeing is focusing on mindset that we were going to make building the second core, which is ear- the end of the year just permeated the marked for the Artemis-2 mission, a whole team,” Shannon says. crewed lunar flight test targeted for In hindsight, Boeing and NASA 2022-23. Rollout from Michoud is ex- sorely underestimated the time and pected in March 2022, and no green technical complexity of building the run is planned. c

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE

NASA SpaceX Nails Crew Dragon Launch Escape System Test A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket shut down > DRAGON FLIES OFF SIMULATED FAILED BOOSTER midair as its payload, a Crew Dragon capsule, rocketed off the booster for > STARLINER TIMER ANOMALY UNDER INVESTIGATION a test of its launch escape system on Jan. 18. Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral

fireball in the skies over Cape Canaveral is not typ- istrator Jim Bridenstine told reporters af- ically a marker of a good day. But when a SpaceX ter launch. AFalcon 9 shut down 85 sec. after liftoff on Jan. 18 any “It went as well as one can possibly ex- tension in Firing Room 4 at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center pect,” added Elon Musk, the chief engineer, was immediately eased by the sight of a small capsule soar- CEO and founder of SpaceX. “I’m super ing up and away from the ominous clouds triggered by the fired-up. This is great.” booster’s breakup over the Atlantic Ocean. In addition to a thorough analysis of the The rocket actually did not fail. Rather, its nine Merlin flight-test data, NASA wants two more para- engines shut down as planned to simulate a launch abort, chute system tests before it will clear Behnken The first SLS core stage will be put through a series of tests at NASA’s Stennis allowing it to tumble in the supersonic airstream, where and Hurley to fly on another Crew Dragon to Space Center, culminating in a full-duration static test fire expected in June. it was ripped apart. Meanwhile, at the moment of engine the ISS, a mission known as Demo 2. Launch cutoff the Crew Dragon capsule perched on the rocket’s could take place as early as April. attach the cover, since the practice run SLS core, particularly since the first on the core stage pathfinder, which was build of the vehicle—which comprises nose fired up its eight Super Draco engines for an 8-sec. Demo 1, an unmanned Crew Dragon test slightly out of round, was not success- a forward skirt, liquid oxygen tank, in- burn, accelerating the spacecraft from 1,200 mph (536 flight to the ISS, was successfully completed ful. “Once we got that forward cover tertank, liquid hydrogen tank and en- m/sec.) to 1,500 mph in approximately 7 sec. in March 2019. on, I knew we could make it,” he says. gine section—served as both manufac- No one was aboard Dragon for the Inflight Abort NASA also is working with Boeing on its CST- Boeing’s real breakthrough came turing prototype and flight hardware. Test (IFA), the last major milestone before SpaceX 100 Starliner crew transportation system in an in early 2019, when, faced with an un- “We’re actually building the system launches veteran NASA astronauts Robert Behnken effort to restore U.S. human spaceflight services acceptable eight-month delay, a small to build a lot of these core stages, and and Douglas Hurley for a trial run to the International to the ISS, which ended in 2011 with the retire- team came up with a plan to assem- we’re putting the system together in Go beyond the ble the stage horizontally, rather than parallel with building the first one,” Space Station (ISS). ment of the space shuttles. news of the day vertically. That enabled parallel oper- says NASA SLS Program Manager But it would not have been a bad ride had crew Both companies have faced technical challeng- ations so assembly was not dependent John Honeycutt. “That’s not normally flown Dragon’s escape system, which generated a es and lengthy delays. SpaceX, which had planned with Aviation Week on completion of the complicated en- the way you do things. We had a flat combined 64,000 lb. of thrust, subjecting a pair of the IFA for last spring, lost the Crew Dragon cap- gine section at the base of the vehicle. budget; we didn’t have this big develop- anthropomorphic test articles inside the capsule to sule earmarked for flight on a test stand while Intelligence Network’s “That was a big thing,” Shannon ment spike, so we worked really, really 3.3 times the normal force of gravity. pressurizing the propulsion system for a static tells Aviation Week. “People thought hard to be as efficient as we could.” Two min. and 25 sec. after launch, Dragon coast- test fire. Market Briefi ngs. we were going to build a rocket one Also contributing to the problems way for about five years, and they was a perspective that since Boeing ed to a peak altitude of 131,000 ft., jettisoned its un- The Starliner’s orbital flight debut in December • Stay ahead of the were really wedded to the idea. had built the International Space Sta- pressurized trunk section and fired up its smaller was marred by a mission-elapsed timer that was “When we first went out and said, tion and currently builds airplanes, it Draco thrusters to reorient itself so that its heat set 11 hr. ahead of the actual mission elapsed time, market ‘We think we have a better way to do should be able to build a rocket as well, shield was positioned in the direction of travel causing the spacecraft to run short of propellant for • Identify new this’ . . . I got told a couple times that Honeycutt adds. for atmospheric reentry. an engine burn to reach the station. An investigation it was a harebrained scheme,” he says. “We basically just had an empty Two min. later, at an altitude of about is underway. opportunities In March, after Vice President Mike factory for them, and I think there 20,000 ft., Dragon jettisoned a panel near its NASA needs both companies’ services and has Pence, who chairs the National Space was a mindset that they have a facili- • Drive revenue Council, called on NASA to speed ty, they have a design. Why can’t they nosecone, allowing mortars to fire to deploy downplayed any competition between the two to be up its planned 2028 Moon landing to just build a rocket? We were seeing a pair of drogue parachutes. Four 116-ft.-dia., the first to carry crew. For now, Russia operates the 2024, Boeing “really got the message schedule improvement along the way, orange-and-white main parachutes shot out only crew ferry flights to the ISS. NASA’s last reser- Learn more: that we had to do something com- and if you look back over the last 12-18 1 min. later and unfurled to slow Dragon’s de- vation for a seat on a Russian Soyuz capsule is for a aviationweek.com/ pletely different,” Shannon adds. months, Boeing did a pretty dang good scent to 20-25 ft./sec. flight set to launch in April. The same team that hatched the job holding schedule,” Honeycutt says. Dragon splashed down about 26 mi. east The agency is mulling mission extensions to both marketbriefi ngs horizontal work plan handled final ve- With the first core stage at Sten- of Kennedy Space Center at 10:38 a.m. EST, Boeing and SpaceX upcoming crew flight tests to help hicle assembly and integration. “The nis for testing, Boeing is focusing on mindset that we were going to make building the second core, which is ear- ending an 8-min. 54-sec. flight test. “There’s fill the gap in ISS staffing. NASA also is negotiating with the end of the year just permeated the marked for the Artemis-2 mission, a a lot left to do . . . but by all accounts this Russia for an additional seat should either of its Com- whole team,” Shannon says. crewed lunar flight test targeted for was a very successful test,” NASA Admin- mercial Crew partners stumble in the home stretch. c In hindsight, Boeing and NASA 2022-23. Rollout from Michoud is ex- sorely underestimated the time and pected in March 2022, and no green SPACEX technical complexity of building the run is planned. c

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 37 SPACE

though, that we will rely very heavily Introducing U.S. Space Force on the Air Force to operate those bas- es, but will work to rename those to > QUESTIONS REMAIN ON SPACE FORCE UNIFORMS, LOGO, ANTHEM match the mission,” Raymond says. Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett SPACE FORCE ROLLOUT OVER THE NEXT 18 MONTHS > is still assessing where U.S. Space Command’s headquarters will reside; Lee Hudson Washington options include Alabama, California and Colorado. he U.S. has not established a are not technically “transferred” to Creating a Space Force is seen by new armed service in over 70 the new service. That formal step can some inside the Pentagon as a tool to Tyears. Now it has a Space Force, only occur for officers through a new improve recruiting and retention of with a newly sworn-in commander and appointment or by being enlisted into space personnel. There is even buzz troops on loan from the Air Force. But the new service. The Department of from Hollywood about Steve Carell before becoming operational, plenty of the Air Force will provide information and Greg Daniels creating a web- details must be worked out. to personnel to guide their decision. based television series for Netflix The Space Force received its first The new law has the headquarters called “Space Force,” which is expect- member Jan. 14 when Gen. John and units fold into the Space Force im- ed to come out this year. Raymond was sworn in at the White mediately. A legislative proposal the Historically, most space jobs were House by Vice President Mike Pence Pentagon sent to Congress on creating in support of the government. But as the nation’s first chief of space a Space Force says the military needs now the military is competing for operations. 60-90 days to assemble the initial staff talent with commercial companies “There are, as you can imagine, and one year to bring in units. such as Blue Origin and SpaceX. The thousands and thousands of actions Over the last nine months, the Pen- Space Force is trying to ride the wave that are going to have to take place— tagon had a planning team figuring out of interest by hiring civilian person- everything from what does a uniform the next steps for establishing a new nel with general service-15 salaries in look like to a logo, all the way up to service, and the Defense Department Washington starting at $142,701. who is in the Space Force and who intends to roll out the Space Force over Both Army and Navy personnel isn’t in the Space Force,” Raymond the next 18 months. “We’re not going to have participated in Space Force says. be in a rush to get something and not planning, and the National Guard and Reserve have also expressed inter- est, Barrett says. However, the Fiscal 2020 NDAA does not assign person- nel from the other services, only from the Air Force. Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy recently met with Raymond and other officials for 2 hr. to discuss the Space Force’s standup. Among the topics: “What are the things that need to stay organic to the Army,” McCarthy says. “Helicopters are in the Army and the Air Force. Are there organic space capabilities that need to stay in the Army, and what do you have to divest to the Space Force?” He declined to specify what capa- bilities he would like to see remain in The chief of space operations for the the Army. U.S. Space Force displays the new service’s The Space Force will not be mea- uniform name tapes in the Pentagon. sured by the number of people that make up its force structure because TECH. SGT. ROBERT BARNETT/U.S. AIR FORCE it is not labor-intensive like the other The Space Force became a real- do that right,” Raymond says. “This is military services. Instead, it is mea- ity Dec. 20 when President Donald not a farce. This is nationally critical.” sured by technology and capabilities. Trump signed the Fiscal 2020 Nation- In the near term, there may be For example, 40 operators control al Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) announcements about renaming Air the entire GPS system, and roughly into law. With a swipe of a pen, over Force bases as Space bases for instal- a half-dozen personnel are on shift at 16,000 active duty and civilian person- lations that focus on space to better one time, Barrett says. nel from Air Force Space Command align with the nascent service. Ray- “It’s a different sort of portfolio were assigned to the Space Force. mond gave Vandenberg in California than what we might be thinking of Although the 16,000 personnel are and Buckley (in Colorado) AFBs as when we generally think about war- “assigned” to the Space Force, they examples. “I just want to point out, fighting regimes,” Barrett says.

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE Gen. John Raymond Introducing U.S. Space Force though, that we will rely very heavily Few members of the U.S. military have focused their on the Air Force to operate those bas- career on space, but Gen. John Raymond is one of them. es, but will work to rename those to He commanded the 5th Space Surveillance Sqdn. in > QUESTIONS REMAIN ON SPACE FORCE UNIFORMS, LOGO, ANTHEM match the mission,” Raymond says. Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett the UK, led the 30th Operations Group at Vandenberg SPACE FORCE ROLLOUT OVER THE NEXT 18 MONTHS > is still assessing where U.S. Space AFB, California, the 21st Space Wing at Peterson AFB, Command’s headquarters will reside; Colorado, and the 14th Air Force and the Joint Force Lee Hudson Washington options include Alabama, California Space Component Command. The 14th Air Force was and Colorado. he U.S. has not established a are not technically “transferred” to Creating a Space Force is seen by transferred in December by Air Force Secretary Barbara new armed service in over 70 the new service. That formal step can some inside the Pentagon as a tool to Barrett to the Space Force and is now known as the Tyears. Now it has a Space Force, only occur for officers through a new improve recruiting and retention of Space Operations Center. In 2015-16 Raymond served with a newly sworn-in commander and appointment or by being enlisted into space personnel. There is even buzz as a space-focused deputy chief of sta‘ operations at troops on loan from the Air Force. But the new service. The Department of from Hollywood about Steve Carell the Pentagon, followed by leading the Air Force Space before becoming operational, plenty of the Air Force will provide information and Greg Daniels creating a web- details must be worked out. to personnel to guide their decision. based television series for Netflix Command and U.S. Space Command (Spacecom). Ray- The Space Force received its first The new law has the headquarters called “Space Force,” which is expect- mond is now serving a dual-hatted role as the chief of member Jan. 14 when Gen. John and units fold into the Space Force im- ed to come out this year. space operations and the head of Spacecom. Raymond was sworn in at the White mediately. A legislative proposal the Historically, most space jobs were House by Vice President Mike Pence Pentagon sent to Congress on creating in support of the government. But as the nation’s first chief of space a Space Force says the military needs now the military is competing for Gen. John Raymond during his swearing-in U.S. AIR FORCE operations. 60-90 days to assemble the initial staff talent with commercial companies ceremony at the White House as the nation’s “There are, as you can imagine, and one year to bring in units. such as Blue Origin and SpaceX. The  rst chief of space operations. thousands and thousands of actions Over the last nine months, the Pen- Space Force is trying to ride the wave TRUMP’S INFLUENCE The SDA is preparing to be ab- that are going to have to take place— tagon had a planning team figuring out of interest by hiring civilian person- Raymond in his role as chief of Trump’s interest in creating the sorbed by the Space Force at that everything from what does a uniform the next steps for establishing a new nel with general service-15 salaries in space operations will report directly Space Force reenergized the move- time instead of residing within the Of- look like to a logo, all the way up to service, and the Defense Department Washington starting at $142,701. to Barrett and is mandated by law to ment and convinced skeptics in the fi ce of the Secretary of Defense. The who is in the Space Force and who intends to roll out the Space Force over Both Army and Navy personnel become a member of the Joint Chiefs Senate, according to House Armed nascent agency released a short-term isn’t in the Space Force,” Raymond the next 18 months. “We’re not going to have participated in Space Force of Staff after one year. Lawmakers Services Committee Reps. Jim acquisition strategy that includes says. be in a rush to get something and not planning, and the National Guard and agreed to have an assistant secretary Cooper (D-Tenn.) and Mike Rogers launching a multilayer small satellite Reserve have also expressed inter- of defense for space policy as the se- (R-Ala.). Discussion on creating a constellation beginning in fi scal 2022. est, Barrett says. However, the Fiscal nior civilian in the O ce of the Sec- Space Force began five years ago, It is yet to be seen once the SDA is 2020 NDAA does not assign person- retary of Defense conducting space beginning with Cooper and Rogers. folded into the Space Force if it will nel from the other services, only from warfi ghting oversight. Much of the information that con- cease to exist or continue along the the Air Force. Congress will continue to use the vinced the two lawmakers of the need established path. Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy power of the purse to conduct strict for a separate military service focused The short-term acquisition strate- recently met with Raymond and other oversight of the new service. The fi s- on space is classifi ed. But the military gy is to accept bids from companies officials for 2 hr. to discuss the Space cal 2020 defense appropriations bill is beginning to see the importance of that can o– er technologies ready for Force’s standup. Among the topics: directs Barrett to submit a monthly declassifying some space threat infor- launch within 18-24 months and at a “What are the things that need to stay “spend plan” for the Space Force. mation. Barrett acknowledges that price point of tens of millions of dol- organic to the Army,” McCarthy says. “The spend plan shall include, but most Americans do not realize how lars as opposed to exquisite satellites “Helicopters are in the Army and the not be limited to, funding for civilian large an impact space has on their traditionally purchased by the Air Air Force. Are there organic space personnel (including the number of daily lives. Force with a hefty price tag. capabilities that need to stay in the full-time equivalents), supplies and One concern the Senate had was Allowing the Space Force to take Army, and what do you have to divest materials, and contract support,” the that the House was trying to force too control of the SDA is a concession to the Space Force?” explanatory statement accompanying much change at once. Altering the the House made during conference. He declined to specify what capa- the bill says. “If there is a change to plan by establishing a Space Force in “The Senate wanted that, and they bilities he would like to see remain in the spend plan in any given quarter, a gradual process put senators more get a say-so on this too, whether we The chief of space operations for the the Army. the Secretary of the Air Force shall at ease, Rogers says. like it or not,” Rogers says. U.S. Space Force displays the new service’s The Space Force will not be mea- provide written notification to the A Senate-confirmed assistant The greatest resistance to creat- uniform name tapes in the Pentagon. sured by the number of people that congressional defense committees not secretary of the Air Force for space ing a Space Force came from the Air make up its force structure because later than 10 business days following acquisition and integration is to Force, because the service wanted to TECH. SGT. ROBERT BARNETT/U.S. AIR FORCE it is not labor-intensive like the other the end of that quarter explaining any serve as the Pentagon’s senior space continue using the space budget as a The Space Force became a real- do that right,” Raymond says. “This is military services. Instead, it is mea- adjustments.” architect. This individual will chair piggybank to fund air dominance pro- ity Dec. 20 when President Donald not a farce. This is nationally critical.” sured by technology and capabilities. Asked whether the Pentagon had the Space Force Acquisition Council grams, Rogers says. Trump signed the Fiscal 2020 Nation- In the near term, there may be For example, 40 operators control considered launching a contest where and oversee and direct the Space “There was political pressure to al Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) announcements about renaming Air the entire GPS system, and roughly service members could submit ideas and Missile Systems Center, Space not birth this baby,” Rogers says. into law. With a swipe of a pen, over Force bases as Space bases for instal- a half-dozen personnel are on shift at for the Space Force’s anthem, Penta- Rapid Capabilities O ce and Space “People tried to kill this baby in the 16,000 active duty and civilian person- lations that focus on space to better one time, Barrett says. gon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman Development Agency (SDA). The po- womb for the last three years. I be- nel from Air Force Space Command align with the nascent service. Ray- “It’s a different sort of portfolio said during a briefi ng: “That entire sition will take on service acquisition lieve there’s going to be some people were assigned to the Space Force. mond gave Vandenberg in California than what we might be thinking of idea makes me uncomfortable. I will executive responsibilities for space who want to see it die in the crib over Although the 16,000 personnel are and Buckley (in Colorado) AFBs as when we generally think about war- check with Gen. Raymond the next systems and programs beginning the next few years. We’re not going to “assigned” to the Space Force, they examples. “I just want to point out, fighting regimes,” Barrett says. time I see him on anthem plans.” Oct. 1, 2022. let that happen.” c

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 3 AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT

Data-Link Mandates Come Due The original DLS implementation regulation the European Commission (EC) issued in 2009 called for aircraft > NORTH ATLANTIC DATA-LINK MANDATE IS EXPANDED to be equipped by February 2015. But EUROPEAN DATA-LINK SERVICES RULE TAKES EFFECT that year, compliance dates for the > ground infrastructure and aircraft > BUSINESS AIRCRAFT EXEMPTED FOR EUROPE’S RULE were postponed to 2018 and 2020, re- spectively, due to technical problems. Bill Carey Washington The EC approved the changes af- ter a European Union Aviation Safety eparate mandates requiring air- 1/A) construct developed by Boeing Agency investigation revealed a sys- craft to be fitted with data-link and Airbus in the 1990s. temic issue of data-link disconnec- Savionics when operating over The objective of the North Atlan- tions called “provider aborts” (PA). Europe and in the North Atlantic air- tic Systems Planning Group, an In- The MUAC had reported an abnormal space have come due. ternational Civil Aviation Organiza- number of PAs in 2008. Similarly, oth- Phase 2C of the North Atlantic tion regional planning entity, is that er ANSPs and aircraft operators were Data Link Mandate requires that by 95% of aircraft operating at or above experiencing technical issues, particu- Jan. 30 aircraft flying between 29,000 29,000 ft. in North Atlantic airspace be larly involving disconnections. and 41,000 ft. be capable of interact- equipped with FANS 1/A by this year. Last July, the EC amended the DLS ing with air traffic control through Europe’s Data Link Services (DLS) regulation further to exempt aircraft the use of satellite-routed control- mandate requiring that aircraft flying certificated before January 1995; air- ler-pilot data-link communications above 28,500 ft. be CPDLC-capable craft certificated before December (CPDLC) and periodically reporting takes effect on Feb. 5. The European 2003 that will cease operating by Dec. their position by automatic depen- regulation specifies the Aeronauti- 31, 2022; aircraft fitted with data-link

ATN B M P C M E

2017 23.2%

2018 36.2%

2020 66.0%

Source: Sesar Deployment Manager The Sesar Deployment Manager estimates 66% of aircraft in Europe will be equipped with ATN B1 data-link capability this year.

dent surveillance-contract (ADS-C). cal Telecommunications Network B1 equipment prior to 2018; and aircraft Exceptions are made for airspace (ATNB1) message protocol, which dif- with a seating capacity of 19 passen- north of 80 deg. N., the New York Oce- fers from the FANS 1/A message set gers and a maximum takeoff weight of anic East flight information region, used by the U.S. Data Comm program. less than 100,000 lb. (45,359 kg). certain “Tango” routes and airspace Both are transmitted over land by “Acknowledging the issues and cor- where surveillance is maintained by VHF Data Link Mode 2 (VDL2) radio. rective actions taken and recognizing radar and/or automatic dependent sur- FANS-equipped aircraft are exempt the objective that at least 75% of the veillance-broadcast (ADS-B) coupled from the DLS mandate, and some air flights should be equipped with data with very-high-frequency (VHF) radio. navigation service providers (ANSP) link capability, the criteria for ex - The mandate has been implement- such as Eurocontrol’s Maastricht Up- emptions should be amended,” the ed in phases since 2013, when aircraft per Area Control Center (MUAC) will EC states. flying at 36,000-39,000 ft. along two continue providing data-link service “Those criteria should remain ef- specified tracks within the North to FANS aircraft. European and FAA fective, without placing an undue Atlantic Organized Track System plans call for transitioning to an ATN economic burden on specific opera- required avionics for CPDLC and Baseline 2 communications protocol tor categories which contribute sig- ADS-C, components of the Future over VDL2 around 2030 to harmonize nificantly less to the overall number of Air Navigation System 1/A (FANS U.S. and European requirements. flights,” the amendment adds. “Such

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT

Data-Link Mandates Come Due The original DLS implementation categories should include operators COLLINS AEROSPACE five times until today. regulation the European Commission of aircraft with FANS 1/A systems While at the same (EC) issued in 2009 called for aircraft installed, operators of older aircraft time the PA rate de - > NORTH ATLANTIC DATA-LINK MANDATE IS EXPANDED to be equipped by February 2015. But and of aircraft designed to carry 19 creased with a factor EUROPEAN DATA-LINK SERVICES RULE TAKES EFFECT that year, compliance dates for the passengers or less.” of 7,” the agency writes > ground infrastructure and aircraft The amendment effectively ex- in its report. But fur- > BUSINESS AIRCRAFT EXEMPTED FOR EUROPE’S RULE were postponed to 2018 and 2020, re- cuses most business and general ther investments will spectively, due to technical problems. aviation aircraft from the regulation, be needed to reach the Bill Carey Washington The EC approved the changes af- with the exception of very-large-cabin goal of one PA per 100 ter a European Union Aviation Safety business jets such as the Gulfstream hr. of CPDLC usage, eparate mandates requiring air- 1/A) construct developed by Boeing Agency investigation revealed a sys- G650ER and airliner variants pro - the authors add. craft to be fitted with data-link and Airbus in the 1990s. temic issue of data-link disconnec- duced by Boeing Business Jets and As of a monitoring Savionics when operating over The objective of the North Atlan- tions called “provider aborts” (PA). Airbus Corporate Jets, notes the Na- exercise it conducted Europe and in the North Atlantic air- tic Systems Planning Group, an In- The MUAC had reported an abnormal tional Business Aviation Association. last May, the Sesar space have come due. ternational Civil Aviation Organiza- number of PAs in 2008. Similarly, oth- Last November, the EC permanent- DM found that the Phase 2C of the North Atlantic tion regional planning entity, is that er ANSPs and aircraft operators were ly exempted certain older aircraft A Collins IDC-900 integrated data-link ANSPs of 18 countries provided DLS Data Link Mandate requires that by 95% of aircraft operating at or above experiencing technical issues, particu- types and early versions including controller displays CPDLC messages. in compliance with the regulation. Jan. 30 aircraft flying between 29,000 29,000 ft. in North Atlantic airspace be larly involving disconnections. Airbus A300s, A330s and A340s; Boe- Five other countries provided service and 41,000 ft. be capable of interact- equipped with FANS 1/A by this year. Last July, the EC amended the DLS ing 737s, 747s, 757s and 767s; Fokker implementation of Sesar programs, but were not fully compliant, and sev- ing with air traffic control through Europe’s Data Link Services (DLS) regulation further to exempt aircraft 70s and 100s, and all Ilyushin Il-76s. said CPDLC usage on the continent en—Cyprus, Greece, Lithuania, Mal- the use of satellite-routed control- mandate requiring that aircraft flying certificated before January 1995; air- “The exemptions should maintain the has grown from just over 0 hr. in Jan- ta, Norway, Romania and Slovakia— ler-pilot data-link communications above 28,500 ft. be CPDLC-capable craft certificated before December objective . . . that at least 75% of flights uary 2013 to a total of 40,000 hr. last were not providing service. (CPDLC) and periodically reporting takes effect on Feb. 5. The European 2003 that will cease operating by Dec. should be equipped with data link ca- July. This has been coupled with a The Sesar DM estimates 66% of their position by automatic depen- regulation specifies the Aeronauti- 31, 2022; aircraft fitted with data-link pability,” the commission says. “massive performance improvement” more than 18,000 aircraft in Europe In a report dated Dec. 19, the Sin- in PAs. will be ATN-B1-capable this year. The gle European Sky ATM Research “Starting the analysis from the agency expects to release updated in- ATN B M P C Deployment Manager (Sesar DM), a middle of 2016, it is visible that the formation on operators’ compliance M E Brussels-based agency that oversees CPDLC usage has grown around with the mandate by April. c

2017 23.2%

2018 36.2% Take part in the Aerospace Innovation Forum!

April 20 – 21, 2020 | Montréal, Québec Palais des congrès de Montréal 2020 66.0%

Source: Sesar Deployment Manager The Sesar Deployment Manager estimates 66% of aircraft in Europe will be Take part in one of the largest get-togethers of the global equipped with ATN B1 data-link capability this year. aerospace industry in North America! dent surveillance-contract (ADS-C). cal Telecommunications Network B1 equipment prior to 2018; and aircraft Exceptions are made for airspace (ATNB1) message protocol, which dif- with a seating capacity of 19 passen- Bfifififififihfifihfififififioffififififififiusfifiy-fifififififigfifivfififififififiofififioffifihfifiwofififi’sfifiofififififiosfififififi north of 80 deg. N., the New York Oce- fers from the FANS 1/A message set gers and a maximum takeoff weight of fififififififis,fiffififiufififigfikfiyfiofififisfififikfifisfifififififiofiffifififififisfiofifisfififififigfifififihfififis,fififififiufififigfi anic East flight information region, used by the U.S. Data Comm program. less than 100,000 lb. (45,359 kg). certain “Tango” routes and airspace Both are transmitted over land by “Acknowledging the issues and cor- AfifiosfififififiDfigfififififiShfiffi,fiEfifififififififififiAfififiTfififisfiofifi,fiNfiwfiSfifififififififififififiyfifiofifi. where surveillance is maintained by VHF Data Link Mode 2 (VDL2) radio. rective actions taken and recognizing radar and/or automatic dependent sur- FANS-equipped aircraft are exempt the objective that at least 75% of the •fi 1,200fifififififififififififis REGISTER NOW at veillance-broadcast (ADS-B) coupled from the DLS mandate, and some air flights should be equipped with data with very-high-frequency (VHF) radio. navigation service providers (ANSP) link capability, the criteria for ex - •fi 100fifififififififififiofifififisfififikfifis https://www.aeromontreal.ca/aerospace- The mandate has been implement- such as Eurocontrol’s Maastricht Up- emptions should be amended,” the •fi 1,400fiB2Bfififififififigs innovation-forum-2020.html ed in phases since 2013, when aircraft per Area Control Center (MUAC) will EC states. flying at 36,000-39,000 ft. along two continue providing data-link service “Those criteria should remain ef- specified tracks within the North to FANS aircraft. European and FAA fective, without placing an undue Offifififififififififififififififififififi Atlantic Organized Track System plans call for transitioning to an ATN economic burden on specific opera- required avionics for CPDLC and Baseline 2 communications protocol tor categories which contribute sig- ADS-C, components of the Future over VDL2 around 2030 to harmonize nificantly less to the overall number of Air Navigation System 1/A (FANS U.S. and European requirements. flights,” the amendment adds. “Such

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 41 ROTORCRAFT > Formula 1 tech for helos p. 46 Bell 525 p. 47 H160 automation p. 48 Russian investment p. 49 ALPINE CHALLENGER

> KOPTER CLOSE TO FINALIZING CONFIGURATION OF SH09

> SINGLE-ENGINE IFR CAPABILITY PLANNED FOR 2022

> CLOSE RELATIONSHIP ESTABLISHED WITH KAI IN SOUTH KOREA

Tony Osborne Pozzallo, Sicily witzerland’s Kopter Group believes it can shake up the light-single-engine rotorcraft Smarket with its SH09 helicopter.

As a newcomer in an industry with been arguably starved of innovation for the class of Airbus’ H135 and the Bell tall barriers to entry, the fledgling decades. Airbus’ H125 Ecureuil, or AS- 429 are looking at the SH09 because company is making major strides in tar as it is known to the U.S. market, is of the improved economics associated flight-testing progress as it aims to the reference point for the SH09, as is with a single engine. bring its distinctive helicopter to mar- Bell’s 407. Kopter already has secured a site ket in 2020. The 407 is a more powerful deriv- for future final assembly in the U.S., “The market is big,” says Kopter ative of Bell’s 1960s-era LongRanger, at Lafayette, Louisiana, beginning CEO Andreas Lowenstein, “and bigger while the H125 was born from Aero- in 2025 and has made some inroads than what the forecasters are saying.” spatiale’s AS350, which fi rst fl ew in the into the Asia-Pacifi c market (AW&ST Lowenstein, a former Eurocopter ex- 1970s. Both have undergone iterative March 11-24, 2019, p. 40). ecutive, says the rotorcraft market is upgrades over the years, receiving up- In October, the company signed an “oš er-driven market . . . if you come rated engines and new avionics. a framework agreement with Korea up with the right product at the right The Honeywell HTS900-powered Aerospace Industries (KAI) for mar- cost, safety, payload and economic per- SH09 already appears to have secured keting, sales and potential assembly of formance, and if the equation is right, some market share, with 70 fi rm orders the helicopter in South Korea. you can resize the market .” and more being saved up for announce- Lowenstein reports the Koreans are He points to the Leonardo AW139 ment at Heli-Expo. Lowenstein says the potentially interested in the SH09 as twin-engine medium rotorcraft as an company has “solidly sold” the first a training platform for the military, example, which entered a market pre- three years of production output, with which could lead to a “joint industry viously dominated by Airbus AS365/ some customers now ordering for the project to cover Korean needs.” EC155 Dauphins, Sikorsky S-76s and fourth and fi fth years . “Today, we have working groups Bell 412s. “People are waiting for this aircraft, [with KAI] progressing on a program “When the AW139 arrived, it was a and we are seeing bigger operators in which has a number of phases looking real game changer,” he says. “Sudden- the EMS [emergency medical services ] at what markets we can tackle, work on ly, the market was 1.5-2.5 times bigger and tourism, being extremely interest- industry and about potential technolo- than in the past. I feel if we can do it ed,” says Lowenstein. gy transfer,” he explains. right, we can provoke the same eš ect.” He also notes that the customers Lowenstein says the SH09’s hidden The vision is not too farfetched, as who previously would have been in the benefi t has been its size. The helicopter the SH09 is entering a market that has market for a twin-engine helicopter in oš ers a cabin not dissimilar in size to

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST ROTORCRAFT > Formula 1 tech for helos p. 46 Bell 525 p. 47 H160 automation p. 48 Russian investment p. 49

ON OSORNEAS mediately and a new one found, it would take months before the new compo- nents would be ready . The decision was made to fl y with a limited fl ight envelope with the best of the castings, and several ALPINE CHALLENGER of the worst were broken as the compa- ny worked to defi ne load limits. “We had to convince ourselves fi rst > KOPTER CLOSE TO FINALIZING that it was safe enough to fl y in a lim- CONFIGURATION OF SH09 ited envelope with the fl awed casting,” says Riccobono. “Once they saw how we approached it, EASA (the Europe- > SINGLE-ENGINE IFR an Union Aviati on Safety Agency) gave CAPABILITY PLANNED us the clearance.” The casting was instrumented, and FOR 2022 the limitations in the flight envelope were severe. Even during takeoŸ , the CLOSE RELATIONSHIP crew could not apply lateral cyclic, so > Good visibility makes SH09 attractive the aircraft had to take off and land ESTABLISHED WITH for tourism and utility operators. sliding sideways. KAI IN SOUTH KOREA “With that gearbox, we achieved a lot,” says Riccobono. “We reached 11,300-ft. density altitude and a speed Kopter SH09 of 125 kt., and we were able to fi ne-tune Tony Osborne Pozzallo, Sicily e er the aerodynamics.” Retrofitting the gearbox with a re- witzerland’s Kopter Group Wei nine ...... Honeywell HTS 900 vised upper housing provided by the new Max. takeoff (internal) . . . 2,850 kg /6,284 lb. errne supplier in September was a “relief” believes it can shake up the Max. takeoff (external) . . 3,000 kg /6,614 lb. Cruise speed ...... 260 kph /140 kt. says Kopter’s chief test pilot, Russ Grant. light-single-engine rotorcraft Max. payload (external) . . . 1,500 kg/3,300 lb. Range ...... 800 km/430 nm “We could fi nally start fl ying with the pi- market with its SH09 helicopter. ein 1+8 Endurance ...... 5 hr. lots fl ying the helicopter rather than the S Source: opter helicopter fl ying the pilots,” he adds. “If we had not spotted the issues, most likely we would have had a serious As a newcomer in an industry with been arguably starved of innovation for the class of Airbus’ H135 and the Bell its twin-engine competitors, capable co Swisshelicopter. An initial prototype, accident,” says Riccobono, pointing out tall barriers to entry, the fledgling decades. Airbus’ H125 Ecureuil, or AS- 429 are looking at the SH09 because of seating up to eight passengers with P1, which fl ew in 2014 was a “proof of the defective castings could carry only company is making major strides in tar as it is known to the U.S. market, is of the improved economics associated a single pilot. In the rear under the concept,” says Michele Riccobono, one-third of the expected load. flight-testing progress as it aims to the reference point for the SH09, as is with a single engine. tail boom, large clamshell doors pro- Kopter’s chief technical o– cer and head Internally, the SH09’s main gearbox bring its distinctive helicopter to mar- Bell’s 407. Kopter already has secured a site vide access to the rear cabin to load a of flight oper ations. P2, which flew in diŸ ers from other helicopter s, as it uses ket in 2020. The 407 is a more powerful deriv- for future final assembly in the U.S., stretcher or baggage. Loading at the February 2016, took the concept a little an architecture in which the planetary “The market is big,” says Kopter ative of Bell’s 1960s-era LongRanger, at Lafayette, Louisiana, beginning rear can be done with the engines run- further, but it was P3, which took to the stage employs stationary planet gears CEO Andreas Lowenstein, “and bigger while the H125 was born from Aero- in 2025 and has made some inroads ning, thanks to the shrouded Maestro air in November 2018, that the compa- and a rotating ring that is connected than what the forecasters are saying.” spatiale’s AS350, which fi rst fl ew in the into the Asia-Pacifi c market (AW&ST anti-torque system. ny says represents a “reset” in terms of to the main rotor mast. This contrasts Lowenstein, a former Eurocopter ex- 1970s. Both have undergone iterative March 11-24, 2019, p. 40). Up front, the current prototype, P3, design and development. Both P1 and with most light helicopters, which use ecutive, says the rotorcraft market is upgrades over the years, receiving up- In October, the company signed is using a Sagem-developed avionics P2 have been withdrawn. a fi xed ring, with the main rotor mast an “oš er-driven market . . . if you come rated engines and new avionics. a framework agreement with Korea suite, but production aircraft will use Testing did not start well, however, connected to planet gears rotating up with the right product at the right The Honeywell HTS900-powered Aerospace Industries (KAI) for mar- the Garmin G3000H system, which when it was discovered through non- around a sun gear. Kopter says its pat- cost, safety, payload and economic per- SH09 already appears to have secured keting, sales and potential assembly of allows the aircraft to be single-engine destructive testing that the castings ented design makes it easier to lubri- formance, and if the equation is right, some market share, with 70 fi rm orders the helicopter in South Korea. IFR-ready (instrument flight rules) of the upper housing of P3’s main cate the planetary gears and bearings you can resize the market .” and more being saved up for announce- Lowenstein reports the Koreans are once development of a four-axis auto- gearbox had major defects . Engineers as one oil-jet nozzle can be provided for He points to the Leonardo AW139 ment at Heli-Expo. Lowenstein says the potentially interested in the SH09 as pilot is complete and certified. The noted shrinkage, porosity and even ar- each gear. The gearbox is less likely to twin-engine medium rotorcraft as an company has “solidly sold” the first a training platform for the military, company’s road map for this work fore- eas that had been repaired by welding jam in the event of planet-gear failure . example, which entered a market pre- three years of production output, with which could lead to a “joint industry sees the SH09 being IFR-ready in 2022. with the wrong fi ller. None of the issues Since the gearbox retrofi t , the fl ight- viously dominated by Airbus AS365/ some customers now ordering for the project to cover Korean needs.” IFR-capable single-engine helicopters had been reported by the supplier. The test team has been steadily increasing EC155 Dauphins, Sikorsky S-76s and fourth and fi fth years . “Today, we have working groups are coming back into fashion, in part gearbox is critical as it also features aircraft weight to 2.6 metric tons, mov- Bell 412s. “People are waiting for this aircraft, [with KAI] progressing on a program prompted by the U.S. Navy’s need for four load-bearing arms that connect it ing toward the planned maximum take- “When the AW139 arrived, it was a and we are seeing bigger operators in which has a number of phases looking an IFR-certified training helicopter, to the helicopter’s airframe. oŸ weight of 2.85 metric tons. real game changer,” he says. “Sudden- the EMS [emergency medical services ] at what markets we can tackle, work on but industry is already seeing growing “If I have to list the important jeop- Flight testing is underway in Poz- ly, the market was 1.5-2.5 times bigger and tourism, being extremely interest- industry and about potential technolo- interest from the EMS industry, partic- ardizing issue for the SH09 develop- zallo, a small heliport on the southern than in the past. I feel if we can do it ed,” says Lowenstein. gy transfer,” he explains. ularly in the U.S. ment, it is the gearbox. . . . The after- coast of Sicily. The area is blessed right, we can provoke the same eš ect.” He also notes that the customers Lowenstein says the SH09’s hidden Development of the SH09 has taken math cost us close to nine months of with open unrestricted airspace and The vision is not too farfetched, as who previously would have been in the benefi t has been its size. The helicopter place in fi ts and starts since the concept delay,” says Riccobono. much better weather than Kopter’s the SH09 is entering a market that has market for a twin-engine helicopter in oš ers a cabin not dissimilar in size to was unveiled in 2011 by the then-Maren- Although the supplier was fi red im- Swiss home, where restrictions mean

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 4 TONY OSBORNE/AW&ST

flying cannot take place even during Safran’s Zodiac. The new configuration lunchtime. During December, the en- uses fuel bags and concertina fuel lines gineering team began testing a new that can cope with the drop-test impact. rotor head and main rotor blades with The SH09 also will be equipped with the aim of installing them in January, a cockpit voice recorder as standard bringing the aircraft closer to its final equipment to support post-accident production standard configuration. analysis. Such equipment is not stan- Test pilots say the aircraft is flying dard in this class. well, with low vibration, a comfortable Work is now underway to gear up ride and low pilot workload, but in for production in Switzerland. The some corners of the envelope “it shows The Maestro shrouded tail rotor company’s facilities at Mollis will be big some weaknesses,” says Grant. “It is a helps improve safety on the ground, enough for the initial production phase case of finessing those corners of the particularly during loading and of around 25-30 aircraft per year. Ar- flight envelope.” unloading with the engine running. chitects are putting finishing touches The company is targeting certifica- on plans for a new 24,000-ft.2 facility tion this year under EASA’s CS27 stan- flying in Colorado. These trials will be that will join the company’s geograph- dard for small rotorcraft, with Kopter performed by production-standard ically separated facilities under one planning to introduce additional capa- prototypes PS4 and PS5, with PS4 en- roof. The aim is to have the facilities bilities through the notification of the visioned to fly later this year. ready for 2022, for an envisaged ramp- design-change process. Other upcoming changes include a up in production. The first certification step will be new fuel tank configuration. Currently Lowenstein says the company wants to have the aircraft approved for visu- the aircraft uses tanks made of Kevlar, to stay under the radar and not attract al-flight-rules operations to a density with two fitted under the cabin and one too much attention from its larger com- altitude of 16,000 ft. and a tempera- each in the rear cabin walls for a total ca- petitors. “There is no reason to excite ture operating range of -10 to 35C. The pacity of 750 liters. However, drop tests everybody today . . . but I think it is company then plans to extend that revealed the tanks could not sustain difficult to do much better than what temperature range with cold-weather the impact, prompting the company to we are doing, and we are a number of trials in Alaska and then hot-and-high adopt a new configuration developed by years ahead,” he says. c

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44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST TONY OSBORNE/AW&ST

flying cannot take place even during Safran’s Zodiac. The new configuration lunchtime. During December, the en- uses fuel bags and concertina fuel lines gineering team began testing a new that can cope with the drop-test impact. rotor head and main rotor blades with The SH09 also will be equipped with the aim of installing them in January, a cockpit voice recorder as standard bringing the aircraft closer to its final equipment to support post-accident production standard configuration. analysis. Such equipment is not stan- Test pilots say the aircraft is flying dard in this class. well, with low vibration, a comfortable Work is now underway to gear up ride and low pilot workload, but in for production in Switzerland. The some corners of the envelope “it shows The Maestro shrouded tail rotor company’s facilities at Mollis will be big some weaknesses,” says Grant. “It is a helps improve safety on the ground, enough for the initial production phase case of finessing those corners of the particularly during loading and of around 25-30 aircraft per year. Ar- flight envelope.” unloading with the engine running. chitects are putting finishing touches The company is targeting certifica- on plans for a new 24,000-ft.2 facility tion this year under EASA’s CS27 stan- flying in Colorado. These trials will be that will join the company’s geograph- dard for small rotorcraft, with Kopter performed by production-standard ically separated facilities under one planning to introduce additional capa- prototypes PS4 and PS5, with PS4 en- roof. The aim is to have the facilities bilities through the notification of the visioned to fly later this year. ready for 2022, for an envisaged ramp- design-change process. Other upcoming changes include a up in production. The first certification step will be new fuel tank configuration. Currently Lowenstein says the company wants to have the aircraft approved for visu- the aircraft uses tanks made of Kevlar, to stay under the radar and not attract al-flight-rules operations to a density with two fitted under the cabin and one too much attention from its larger com- altitude of 16,000 ft. and a tempera- each in the rear cabin walls for a total ca- petitors. “There is no reason to excite ture operating range of -10 to 35C. The pacity of 750 liters. However, drop tests everybody today . . . but I think it is company then plans to extend that revealed the tanks could not sustain difficult to do much better than what temperature range with cold-weather the impact, prompting the company to we are doing, and we are a number of trials in Alaska and then hot-and-high adopt a new configuration developed by years ahead,” he says. c

Fleet Discovery Military

Discover Opportunity with Unparalleled Tracking of Global Military Fleets

Aviation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery Military Edition simplifi es tracking global military aircraft and engines — piloted and unpiloted, fi xed wing and rotary — so you can discover new opportunities to grow your business. ● Featuring over 70,000 aircraft and 110,000 engines in service with more than 400 military operators. ● Searchable and fi lterable by aircraft, engine, category, mission, lift type, weight class and more. See for yourself how Fleet Discovery Military can help you track aircraft and engines so you never miss a business opportunity.

To learn more, go to aviationweek.com/FDMilitary Or call: Anne McMahon +1 646 291 6353 | Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST ROTORCRAFT

Formula 1 Technology Inspires sumers.” Remote pilotage will facilitate one-way trips and shared ownership. British Helicopter Proposal On routine flights, the pilot would not have a heavy workload, perhaps > HORIZON LOOKS FOR INVESTORS TO TAKE PROJECT TO CONCEPT flying “hands-off” for most of the time, he adds. A flight planning and > AUTO-COPTER TO BE POWERED BY SMALL ENGINES OR BATTERIES management system will map out and fly routes avoiding high ground, Tony Osborne London weather, buildings and prohibited airspace, while sensor-like Lidar will team of British engineers and power needed to drive both the main watch out for upcoming obstacles entrepreneurs are proposing rotor and propulsor fan. Using three and, if necessary, take avoiding action. Athe development of a new, engines will give the Horizon machine The aircraft would be equipped largely autonomous rotorcraft for the Category A performance, Stewart with a health and usage monitoring general aviation air taxi market and says, a capability afforded only to system, with the fly-by-wire and hap- urban air mobility mission. twin- and triple-engine helicopters tic flying controls helping to keep the At a time when billions of dollars that allows the aircraft to continue its Auto-Copter in a safe flight envelope have been invested in fully elec- flight safely in the event of an engine with low maintenance costs. tric-powered vertical-takeoff-and-land- failure. Such a capability should en- A key focus of the team has been ing (VTOL) aircraft, the team at Hori- able the aircraft to perform urban air on weight reduction, driving the zon is proposing a more conventional mobility (UAM) missions, for example, extensive use of carbon fiber in the single main rotor configuration—but operating from the tops of buildings. structure and the fuselage—even as one with a relatively unconventional Stewart also notes that a casing on the main gearbox. architecture. Horizon will also produce a bat- Ron Stewart, Horizon’s chief tech- tery-powered version, but Stewart nology officer, who has been working points out that the range, endurance on the concept since 2014, says the and speed of the aircraft will be signifi- Horizon Auto-Copter cantly reduced, given the current is envisioned battery technologies. However, as “disruptive” emerging battery

and “technologically advanced” HORIZON HELICOPTERS CONCEPT technologies will al- but also has been designed to be leviate this to some a “simple, cheaper and custom- degree. Gas-tur- er-friendly product.” bine variants of the The former Smiths aircraft will be fueled Aerospace vice either by normal jet fuel, president is pro- diesel, E85 biofuel or carbon-zero syn- posing a family of thetic jet fuel. Horizon aircraft with a seating Stewart and his team have already capacity of 2-8 people, a total generated substantial investor interest weight up to 2 metric tons and a in the concept, and they are currently design tailored to be flown by cus- involved in putting together the launch tomers with a private pilot’s license. Auto-Copters would be offered in group of investors. The company plans Horizon’s proposal will be a three-en- different configurations from 2-8 to pursue UK government grants. gine electric-hybrid coaxial compound seats, with or without wings and Stewart says the cost of bringing rotorcraft with forward propulsion pro- either with a conventional or the aircraft to market will be “sub - vided by a ducted fan fitted to the rear. battery-powered propulsion system. stantial,” but he is confident about the Rather than flying the aircraft like returns it will generate. The team has a helicopter—with cyclic, collective a hybrid propulsion system gives the already identified suppliers in the UK and anti-torque pedals—the Horizon designers more freedom in placing and U.S. for major components, all of aircraft will use a multichannel fly- parts of the drive system. The Hori- them medium-size enterprises. Stew- by-wire flight control system with the zon team is also studying options for art also believes the personal trans- pilot controlling the aircraft through both fixed-pitch and variable-pitch port variants of the aircraft could a three-axis joystick for directional propulsor fans, with the variable pitch be sold, especially to high-net-worth control and a propulsor power lever. being looked at for its ability to slow individuals through automobile-like Three engines may sound thirsty, the Auto-Copter down for hover, ap- showrooms. “They go looking to buy but Stewart is not proposing the use proach and landing. a Ferrari and end up with a Horizon of traditional helicopter turboshafts. “It will fly just like a fixed-wing air- Auto-Copter,” says Stewart. Target Instead, micro gas-turbine generators, craft, flying level rather than nose down price for the Auto-Copter family derived from technology currently like a helicopter,” explains Stewart. “By would start at around $800,000 and seen in the MGU-H (Motor Generator making it easier to fly, almost as easy as climb to around $1.2 million for the Unit, Heat) component of a Formula 1 [driving] a car, we are opening the mar- larger, professionally flown fare-pay- racing car will produce the electrical ket up to a much larger number of con- ing passenger models.c

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST ROTORCRAFT ROTORCRAFT

Formula 1 Technology Inspires sumers.” Remote pilotage will facilitate Bell 525 Aces Customer Evaluations representative missions. After certifica- one-way trips and shared ownership. tion, Ship 15 will be Bell’s demonstrator. British Helicopter Proposal On routine flights, the pilot would as Certification Draws Closer A close inspection of Ship 15 at Bell’s not have a heavy workload, perhaps Flight Research Center in nearby Ar- > HORIZON LOOKS FOR INVESTORS TO TAKE PROJECT TO CONCEPT flying “hands-off” for most of the > FLIGHT TESTING PASSES THE TWO-THIRDS MARK lington, Texas, underscored the 525’s time, he adds. A flight planning and size and highlighted its sophisticated > AUTO-COPTER TO BE POWERED BY SMALL ENGINES OR BATTERIES management system will map out > FLY-BY-WIRE SOFTWARE QUALIFICATION ON TRACK cockpit, capacious interior even in the and fly routes avoiding high ground, high-density four-abreast offshore lay- Tony Osborne London weather, buildings and prohibited Graham Warwick Fort Worth out, large windows and a high standard airspace, while sensor-like Lidar will of aircraft completion. team of British engineers and power needed to drive both the main watch out for upcoming obstacles ell is entering the final stages of schedule for qualification in the sec- Despite the progress, Bell “can’t set entrepreneurs are proposing rotor and propulsor fan. Using three and, if necessary, take avoiding action. certification testing on the 525 ond quarter. accurate expectations on certification, Athe development of a new, engines will give the Horizon machine The aircraft would be equipped BRelentless, buoyed by positive In 2019, Ship 2 completed cold-weath- but I think we will soon,” says O’Neil. largely autonomous rotorcraft for the Category A performance, Stewart with a health and usage monitoring initial feedback from customers. The er testing and control-law tuning. Work Because of its FBW system, certifica- general aviation air taxi market and says, a capability afforded only to system, with the fly-by-wire and hap- boost comes as the eighth year of devel- to be completed in 2020 includes tests tion of the 525 involves a number of urban air mobility mission. twin- and triple-engine helicopters tic flying controls helping to keep the opment of the super-medium twin-tur- of handling qualities and noise, after industry firsts. At a time when billions of dollars that allows the aircraft to continue its Auto-Copter in a safe flight envelope bine helicopter draws to a close, with which Ship 2 will be used as the ground These include a nondepletable emer- have been invested in fully elec- flight safely in the event of an engine with low maintenance costs. several months of testing still ahead. endurance test vehicle, then retired and gency power system. This is attached tric-powered vertical-takeoff-and-land- failure. Such a capability should en- A key focus of the team has been Bell is not saying when it expects modified into a maintenance trainer. to the main rotor and provides power ing (VTOL) aircraft, the team at Hori- able the aircraft to perform urban air on weight reduction, driving the to certify the 525, but with 1,500 hr. Ship 3 completed load-level surveys to the triplex flight-control computers, zon is proposing a more conventional mobility (UAM) missions, for example, extensive use of carbon fiber in the logged, the helicopter is more than two- including slope landings in 2019. Its electrics and hydraulics as long as the single main rotor configuration—but operating from the tops of buildings. structure and the fuselage—even as thirds of the way through its planned next tasks are one-engine inoperative, rotor is turning, so the systems are not one with a relatively unconventional Stewart also notes that a casing on the main gearbox. flight-test program. FAA certification height/velocity curve and Category lost if the engines fail. architecture. Horizon will also produce a bat- by the summer is “mathematically de- BELL Ron Stewart, Horizon’s chief tech- tery-powered version, but Stewart fensible,” says Josh O’Neil, manager of nology officer, who has been working points out that the range, endurance technology and evaluation. on the concept since 2014, says the and speed of the aircraft will be signifi- The 525 is all-new, Bell’s largest he- Horizon Auto-Copter cantly reduced, given the current licopter yet and the first commercial is envisioned battery technologies. However, helicopter with fly-by-wire (FBW) as “disruptive” emerging battery flight controls. It marks a return to a and “technologically advanced” HORIZON HELICOPTERS CONCEPT technologies will al- market the company once served with but also has been designed to be leviate this to some the 214ST. But with a maximum gross a “simple, cheaper and custom- degree. Gas-tur- weight of 20,500 lb., the 525 is substan- er-friendly product.” bine variants of the tially heavier and more capable. The former Smiths aircraft will be fueled Flight testing has been underway Aerospace vice either by normal jet fuel, for four years and is supported by four president is pro- diesel, E85 biofuel or carbon-zero syn- aircraft. Ships 2, 3 and 14 were joined posing a family of thetic jet fuel. in late 2019 by Ship 15, the first with Bell 525 Ship 15 will conduct function and reliability testing, the final step Horizon aircraft with a seating Stewart and his team have already a production 16-passenger interior de- before expected FAA certification. capacity of 2-8 people, a total generated substantial investor interest signed for offshore operations. The first weight up to 2 metric tons and a in the concept, and they are currently aircraft was lost in July 2016 in a fatal A takeoff testing. Ship 3 also will test The 525 also has autorotation entry design tailored to be flown by cus- involved in putting together the launch accident, which delayed the program flight-control failure modes and han- assist, which is unique to FBW and tomers with a private pilot’s license. Auto-Copters would be offered in group of investors. The company plans by more than a year. dling qualities and conduct a search- was tested by Ship 2 in 2019. The first Horizon’s proposal will be a three-en- different configurations from 2-8 to pursue UK government grants. While it declines to commit to a date and-rescue loads survey. second after power failure is the most gine electric-hybrid coaxial compound seats, with or without wings and Stewart says the cost of bringing for certification, Bell reports significant In 2019, Ship 14 completed snow and important, says O’Neil. “For certifica- rotorcraft with forward propulsion pro- either with a conventional or the aircraft to market will be “sub - progress with testing. By early Decem- propulsion testing, including operation tion, we assume the pilot does not do vided by a ducted fan fitted to the rear. battery-powered propulsion system. stantial,” but he is confident about the ber, five of eight drive-system qualifica- in full blowing snow and compatibili- anything for that first second, then gets Rather than flying the aircraft like returns it will generate. The team has tion tests had been completed, includ- ty testing of the engine and auxiliary on the controls. We lose that second,” he a helicopter—with cyclic, collective a hybrid propulsion system gives the already identified suppliers in the UK ing running the transmission without power unit. On the to-do test list for says. In the 525, if power fails the FBW and anti-torque pedals—the Horizon designers more freedom in placing and U.S. for major components, all of lubrication for 1 hr. to meet the Europe- 2020 are inlet distortion, propulsion immediately begins making inputs to aircraft will use a multichannel fly- parts of the drive system. The Hori- them medium-size enterprises. Stew- an Union Aviation Safety Agency’s 30- and avionics cooling, flight director and the controls, lowering collective pitch by-wire flight control system with the zon team is also studying options for art also believes the personal trans- min. run-dry requirement. Drive-sys- emergency floats. to maintain rotor speed. This will be pilot controlling the aircraft through both fixed-pitch and variable-pitch port variants of the aircraft could tem certification testing is expected In addition to the initial customer part of the initial certification, he says. a three-axis joystick for directional propulsor fans, with the variable pitch be sold, especially to high-net-worth to be completed in the second quarter. evaluations by pilots and passengers, Despite a flat market, customers control and a propulsor power lever. being looked at for its ability to slow individuals through automobile-like General Electric has certified the Ship 15 has been used for high-intensi- are eagerly awaiting the 525, says Bell. Three engines may sound thirsty, the Auto-Copter down for hover, ap- showrooms. “They go looking to buy 1,800-shp, digitally controlled CT7-2F1 ty radiated-field and low-level lightning Initial pilot evaluations rated the han- but Stewart is not proposing the use proach and landing. a Ferrari and end up with a Horizon engine. Suppliers had completed 170 of tests. Next up are fuel system calibra- dling qualities as impressive, while of traditional helicopter turboshafts. “It will fly just like a fixed-wing air- Auto-Copter,” says Stewart. Target 190 qualification tests by early Decem- tion, fire extinguishing, emergency passengers praised the smooth ride, Instead, micro gas-turbine generators, craft, flying level rather than nose down price for the Auto-Copter family ber and were on track to complete their egress, and electrical and avionics describing the seating as a step-change derived from technology currently like a helicopter,” explains Stewart. “By would start at around $800,000 and work in the first quarter. Development testing. in comfort over current offshore heli- seen in the MGU-H (Motor Generator making it easier to fly, almost as easy as climb to around $1.2 million for the of flight-control and avionics software Production-configuration Ship 15 will copters. It has been a long road, but Bell Unit, Heat) component of a Formula 1 [driving] a car, we are opening the mar- larger, professionally flown fare-pay- is “keeping track with certification be used for FAA function and reliability increasingly is confident the 525 is the racing car will produce the electrical ket up to a much larger number of con- ing passenger models.c requirements,” says O’Neil, and on testing—an extended period of flying on right helicopter for the market. c

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 47 ROTORCRAFT

Airbus Boosts Automation Features in the H160

> FIRST H160 DELIVERIES WITH CERTIFICATION ARE IMMINENT

> AIRBUS HAS DEVELOPED A VORTEX-RING-STATE WARNING SYSTEM FOR CREW

Tony Osborne Marseille, France

irbus is in the final throes of approaches market entry, the compa- min., with the procedure managed by certifying its H160 twin-en- ny has revealed more detail about the the full-authority digital engine con- Agine medium rotorcraft, which capabilities of the latest version of the trol. An onboard training mode can emerged out of the company’s X4 pro- helicopter’s Helionix avionics suite. simulate engine-out conditions even gram in 2015. The helicopter is expect- The internally developed system was during takeoff. ed to reach its first customer—an un- introduced on the H225 twin-engine One focus has been on providing a disclosed buyer in the U.S.—during heavy helicopter and since has been high level of equipment on the base- the second half of 2020, followed by included on the H175 as well as the line aircraft, notes Gensse. Standard deliveries to global launch operator H135 and H145 at the lighter end of equipment includes a weather radar, Babcock. the Airbus product range. traffic-alert and collision-avoidance With a maximum takeoff weight of “A lot of time has been spent on de- system (TCAS II), and a helicopter ter- 6,050 kg (13,340 lb.), the Safran Ar- veloping the human-machine inter- rain-awareness and warning system. rano 1A-powered aircraft is aimed face and reducing the workload of the With the development of a four-axis for an anticipated wave of orders as crew,” says Oliver Gensse, chief test autopilot, the team has introduced a operators plan to replace Bell 412s, pilot for the H160 program. recovery system that returns the heli- early-model Leonardo AW139s and Helionix has a “complex architec- copter to stable level flight at the last Sikorsky S-76s. The H160 also is in- ture,” he says, yet that complexity is recorded speed and altitude. Gensse tended to fit into the product family not passed to the pilot. Instead, the explains the system has been designed space held by the H155, whose devel- system manages activity in the back- for regular use and not just emergency opment is being transferred to Korea ground and only “lets the pilot know situations, and can be activated with the Aerospace Industries as the basis for if necessary.” double-click of a button on the cyclic. its Light Civil Helicopter and Light Demonstrating the aircraft’s sys- According to Gensse, the recovery Armed Helicopter. tems during a flight in January us - button could be used if the pilot be- As part of the H160’s develop - ing the third prototype H160, Gensse comes disorientated in low visibility ment, Airbus focused on producing showed how the Arrano engines can or when sudden maneuvers are re - a more automated aircraft and as it be started and brought to idle in just 2 quired to take avoidance action. Even

48 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST ROTORCRAFT

but he says the version on the H160 is The aircraft’s hockey-stick-like Blue the most advanced. Edge main rotor blades have helped Gensse and the engineering team to reduce noise, while the use of the are particularly proud of the addition Fenestron antitorque system reduces of a vortex-ring-state (VRS) warning noisy interactions between the two dy- system that provides visual and aural namic systems. The engineering team alarms when the aircraft is approach- has prided itself on not having to use ing VRS flight conditions. sound- and vibration-cancellation sys- VRS, also known as settling with tems in the cabin, although they are an power, occurs when the main rotor option for VIPs’ aircraft. Airbus Boosts loses lift, and it often results in a loss The H160’s orderbook has been slow to fill, in part due to the ongoing A U.S. customer will be one of the weakness in the oil-and-gas market Automation Features first to receive an H160 later this year. and because the aircraft is arriving slightly later on the market than orig- in the H160 of control and high sink rates. Gensse inally planned. When launched, the says the VRS warning system predicts aircraft was expected to hit the mar- flight conditions ahead over a 10-sec. ket in 2018. FIRST H160 DELIVERIES WITH > period, initially providing visual warn- However, the company has secured CERTIFICATION ARE IMMINENT ings on the main multifunction display orders for several corporate and and then aural alarms in the final sec- VIP-configured machines. Babcock, > AIRBUS HAS DEVELOPED A onds. The VRS warning system has which signed a five-year agreement VORTEX-RING-STATE WARNING not been designed to take corrective to purchase an undisclosed number action, but instead prompts the pilot of helicopters in 2018, is expected to SYSTEM FOR CREW to do so. use the H160 to support its emergen- Autopilot development also has cy medical service business around led to the creation of an automatic Europe. takeoff mode, which will set up the Assembly of production aircraft is helicopter to perform a Category A well underway, with the second se - takeoff, where the aircraft will lift rial-number H160 flying for the first into the hover and climb slowly back- time in December. The aircraft also ward. In this situation, should an will form the basis of the French mili- engine fail, the helicopter can settle tary’s new Joint Light Helicopter to be Tony Osborne Marseille, France back onto the landing area or depart used by the Air Force, Army and Navy; in stabilized single-engine flight. The 169 machines will be purchased to re- autopilot also is designed to fly land- place four types in the inventory. This ERIC RAZ/AIRBUS HELICOPTERS ing approaches to within a few feet, military order is expected to bring irbus is in the final throes of approaches market entry, the compa- min., with the procedure managed by the shock of a bird strike on a wind- although the pilot will have to perform additional innovation with plans to certifying its H160 twin-en- ny has revealed more detail about the the full-authority digital engine con- shield can result in pilot feedback into the actual landing. use Thales’ FlytX suite. Airbus plans Agine medium rotorcraft, which capabilities of the latest version of the trol. An onboard training mode can the controls, which can be recovered Other areas of focus are on reduc- to make FlytX with its touchscreen, emerged out of the company’s X4 pro- helicopter’s Helionix avionics suite. simulate engine-out conditions even using the system. The H175 super-me- ing vibration and lowering noise levels widescreen display panels available gram in 2015. The helicopter is expect- The internally developed system was during takeoff. dium platform has a similar system, in part to improve passenger comfort. for the commercial version as well. c ed to reach its first customer—an un- introduced on the H225 twin-engine One focus has been on providing a disclosed buyer in the U.S.—during heavy helicopter and since has been high level of equipment on the base- the second half of 2020, followed by included on the H175 as well as the line aircraft, notes Gensse. Standard deliveries to global launch operator H135 and H145 at the lighter end of equipment includes a weather radar, In Siberia, Russian Helo ished construction site, with alumi- Babcock. the Airbus product range. traffic-alert and collision-avoidance num panels half-enclosing a frame of With a maximum takeoff weight of “A lot of time has been spent on de- system (TCAS II), and a helicopter ter- Maker Invests To Grow steel beams. “The new logistics center: 6,050 kg (13,340 lb.), the Safran Ar- veloping the human-machine inter- rain-awareness and warning system. [also] more than 1 billion rubles. You rano 1A-powered aircraft is aimed face and reducing the workload of the With the development of a four-axis INDIAN KA-226T ORDER IS PENDING FINAL SIGNATURE also see the press and decal production for an anticipated wave of orders as crew,” says Oliver Gensse, chief test autopilot, the team has introduced a > center: also around 1 billion rubles. We operators plan to replace Bell 412s, pilot for the H160 program. recovery system that returns the heli- > VRT-500 AND BAIKAL BIPLANE POISED TO ENTER FACTORY plan to build a new galvanizing shop: early-model Leonardo AW139s and Helionix has a “complex architec- copter to stable level flight at the last also 1 billion rubles. The overall invest- Sikorsky S-76s. The H160 also is in- ture,” he says, yet that complexity is recorded speed and altitude. Gensse Steve Trimble Ulan Ude, Russia ment over the last five years: more tended to fit into the product family not passed to the pilot. Instead, the explains the system has been designed than 8 billion rubles. We plan to have space held by the H155, whose devel- system manages activity in the back- for regular use and not just emergency eonid Belykh is preparing the rattles off a list of capital investment approximately 10 billion rubles invest- opment is being transferred to Korea ground and only “lets the pilot know situations, and can be activated with the Ulan Ude Aviation Plant for projects, starting with a newly opened ment in the next 10 years.” Aerospace Industries as the basis for if necessary.” double-click of a button on the cyclic. Lan improbably historic growth paint hangar. Such capital spending would have its Light Civil Helicopter and Light Demonstrating the aircraft’s sys- According to Gensse, the recovery spurt. Belykh started working at the “This is one of our investment proj- seemed unlikely only five years ago. Armed Helicopter. tems during a flight in January us - button could be used if the pilot be- sprawling aircraft factory deep in the ects: More than 1 billion rubles ($16.3 By then, orders by China for the Ulan As part of the H160’s develop - ing the third prototype H160, Gensse comes disorientated in low visibility Siberian taiga 50 years ago as a cir- million),” Belykh says through an Ude Aviation Plant’s signature prod- ment, Airbus focused on producing showed how the Arrano engines can or when sudden maneuvers are re - cuit installer, so now, as general man- English translator. uct—the multi-purpose Mil Mi-171 heli- a more automated aircraft and as it be started and brought to idle in just 2 quired to take avoidance action. Even ager, his paternal pride shows as he Belykh then points to a half-fin- copter, the export version of Russia’s

48 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 49 ROTORCRAFT

domestic Mi-8 medium-twin—had light-single launched last year to serve Alexander Mikheev, the head of Roso- dried up as Chinese-built alternatives the urban air taxi market. boronexport, told reporters at the entered the market. Internal demand But the potential growth for Be - Dubai air show that he expected India within Russia the Mi-8 continued, but lykh’s Siberian aircraft plant still isn’t to sign the contract before May 2020. not at sufficient levels to support three assured. The new aircraft projects are President Vladimir Putin has person- final assembly sites, including in Ulan based on new, uncertified designs. ally intervened in the potential, $1 bil- Ude, Kazan and Moscow. More important, India still hasn’t lion transaction, offering Indian Prime As Belykh scrambled to find new consummated the Ka-226T selection Minister Narendra Modi a tour of the foreign patrons, India offered a life- five years ago with a signed aircraft aircraft during an event in Vladivostok line. Needing to replace Cheetah and order. Last year, reports emerged of in September. Chetak light utility helicopters for the friction between India and Russia The threat of U.S. sanctions does air force and army, India’s Ministry of over the amount of local content for not seem to concern Russian officials. Defense selected in 2015 the Ka-226T, Indian companies. In response to Russian meddling in Kamov’s coaxial, light-twin reengined Russian Helicopters initially agreed 2016 elections, the U.S. issued a blanket with Safran Arrius 2G1 engines. To to assemble the first 60 airframes in threat against any company that con- support India’s requirement for 200 Ulan Ude, then install the French- ducts a transaction with Rosoboronex- helicopters, Rostec reassigned final made engines in India. Ulan Ude port, Russia’s arms export agency. More assembly for the Ka-226 from a plant would continue to build up the air- recently, U.S. diplomats have narrowed in Kumertau, Russia, to Ulan Ude. frame kits for the final 140 Ka-226Ts, the threat to only certain transactions, Moreover, the remote Siberian but the remaining aircraft would be excluding certain deals between tradi- factory also has attracted some of assembled in India. Last February, tional Russian customers. It is not clear the Russian aviation industry’s most the Russian manufacturer announced how the narrower U.S. policy applies to innovative aircraft concepts, includ- agreements with five Indian compa- the Ka-226T order, but Belykh dismiss- ing potential production of the Baikal nies to supply parts for the Ka-226T’s es any concerns. biplane. Though most Russian air- fuselage, rotor blades, radios and “When you came here, you thought craft production centers concentrate landing gear, but other components that the plant was stalled, that produc- on either fixed- or rotary-wing, Ulan will continue to be sourced from Rus- tion was halted, that sanctions make it Ude historically has assembled both, sia’s facility in Kumertau. so we cannot build any more helicop- including the Sukhoi Su-25 attack jet. After a half-decade of negotiations, ters,” he said. “But sanctions would not Russian Helicopters also has selected there are signs that the deal could stop us from building our helicopters. Ulan Ude to assemble the VRT-500, a be completed soon. In November, It will not happen.” c STEVE TRIMBLE/AW&ST

As an Mi-171 performed a flight test in September at the Ulan Ude Aviation Plant, Russian Helicopters was searching for new export customers, from Kazakhstan to India to Africa.

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST ROTORCRAFT THE ENGINEERING LIFE DAN PROSSER FOUND THAT WHAT HE LIKED AND WHAT HE WAS GOOD AT WERE ONEAND THE SAME— computer programming and simulations—while an undergraduate student at Rochester Institute of domestic Mi-8 medium-twin—had light-single launched last year to serve Alexander Mikheev, the head of Roso- Technology. He took that interest to the Georgia Institute of Technology to earn a Ph.D. in aero- dried up as Chinese-built alternatives the urban air taxi market. boronexport, told reporters at the space engineering . His work in grad school is where he found his future, evaluating and ana- entered the market. Internal demand But the potential growth for Be - Dubai air show that he expected India lyzing simulations. “I like being on the cutting edge of the tools the Navy is working on— within Russia the Mi-8 continued, but lykh’s Siberian aircraft plant still isn’t to sign the contract before May 2020. the aircraft and everything that goes on it,” Prosser says. “I like the stability of working not at sufficient levels to support three assured. The new aircraft projects are President Vladimir Putin has person- final assembly sites, including in Ulan based on new, uncertified designs. ally intervened in the potential, $1 bil- for the government. We have good bene‘ ts and vacation time. My work situation is Ude, Kazan and Moscow. More important, India still hasn’t lion transaction, offering Indian Prime good, and I have every other Friday o“ , and while salary [as a priority] comes after As Belykh scrambled to find new consummated the Ka-226T selection Minister Narendra Modi a tour of the the life I wanted for my family, we are paid well.” foreign patrons, India offered a life- five years ago with a signed aircraft aircraft during an event in Vladivostok line. Needing to replace Cheetah and order. Last year, reports emerged of in September. Chetak light utility helicopters for the friction between India and Russia The threat of U.S. sanctions does air force and army, India’s Ministry of over the amount of local content for not seem to concern Russian officials. Defense selected in 2015 the Ka-226T, Indian companies. In response to Russian meddling in Kamov’s coaxial, light-twin reengined Russian Helicopters initially agreed 2016 elections, the U.S. issued a blanket with Safran Arrius 2G1 engines. To to assemble the first 60 airframes in threat against any company that con- support India’s requirement for 200 Ulan Ude, then install the French- ducts a transaction with Rosoboronex- helicopters, Rostec reassigned final made engines in India. Ulan Ude port, Russia’s arms export agency. More assembly for the Ka-226 from a plant would continue to build up the air- recently, U.S. diplomats have narrowed in Kumertau, Russia, to Ulan Ude. frame kits for the final 140 Ka-226Ts, the threat to only certain transactions, Moreover, the remote Siberian but the remaining aircraft would be excluding certain deals between tradi- tional Russian customers. It is not clear factory also has attracted some of assembled in India. Last February, OPERATING IN THE MESH the Russian aviation industry’s most the Russian manufacturer announced how the narrower U.S. policy applies to innovative aircraft concepts, includ- agreements with five Indian compa- the Ka-226T order, but Belykh dismiss- As naval aircraft grow increasingly complex, ing potential production of the Baikal nies to supply parts for the Ka-226T’s es any concerns. Prosser is involved with mesh generation. In this biplane. Though most Russian air- fuselage, rotor blades, radios and “When you came here, you thought technique, a large area surrounding an aircraft craft production centers concentrate landing gear, but other components that the plant was stalled, that produc- in simulation is broken into small cells, with on either fixed- or rotary-wing, Ulan will continue to be sourced from Rus- tion was halted, that sanctions make it equations in each cell solved and then ag- DEVELOPING AND Ude historically has assembled both, sia’s facility in Kumertau. so we cannot build any more helicop- gregated to identify how  uid dynamics NAVAL AIR PROVIDING TOOLS including the Sukhoi Su-25 attack jet. After a half-decade of negotiations, ters,” he said. “But sanctions would not form around the vehicle. Some mesh WARFARE CENTER’S Prosser’s daily work involves Russian Helicopters also has selected there are signs that the deal could stop us from building our helicopters. Ulan Ude to assemble the VRT-500, a be completed soon. In November, It will not happen.” c generations take months to run, and assuring that tools being used automation in software development to assess new aircraft and STEVE TRIMBLE/AW&ST is helping to make the operation DANIEL PROSSER systems are doing their jobs, As an Mi-171 performed a flight more e cient. Prosser works with from computation simulations test in September at the Ulan fellow aerospace engineer Jacob One of Aviation Week’s 20 Twenties in 2013, of  uid dynamics to basic Ude Aviation Plant, Russian Allen (below) on the mesh-genera- Presser provides program support at the quality assurance for the High- Helicopters was searching for tion techniques that are used. Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division, Performance Computing testing aircraft and systems being new export customers, from Modernization Program acquired for the (HPCMP). He checks the varied Kazakhstan to India to Africa. U.S. Navy. simulations as they are running and how the data is coming in, and then he analyzes that data. The HPCMP provides the tools used in evaluating systems being acquired, including computational research and engineering ac- quisition tools and environment.

TEACHING THE TOOLS In addition to assuring the quality of the simulation and evaluation tools, Presser’s division assigns engineers to teach courses three times a year at varied locations to help users gain expertise. The tools, which assist programmers as they code software, come with use cases that allow the students to play with new features while allowing Prosser to contribute to how the code is developed.

S AV TS

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 5 AEROSPACE IN ISRAEL > Militarizing space p. 56 Industry evolution p. 58 UAS market shifts p. 61 Declassified sensors p. 62 Precision weapons p. 63 NETWORK NEWS

> ISRAEL’S BNET DATA LINK HAS BEEN INTEGRATED ON F-35I

> OPAL COMBAT CLOUD SYSTEM RECENTLY DECLASSIFIED

> SMART TRIGGER NOW CLEARED FOR EXPORT MARKET AS FIRE WEAVER

Steve Trimble Tel Aviv

his is the scenario: A soldier identifi es a target—say, Aviation Week revealed how far the the third window from the left on the fourth fl oor of a Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have come toward conquering this chal- nondescript structure deep inside a crowded city—but lenge. As a self-contained unit spared it is beyond the eŽ ective range of his rifl e. the restrictions of adhering to NATO T standards, Israeli companies have Now the search begins. The soldier crowded, urban environment, but it developed and delivered a battle- needs to fi nd a friendly “shooter”—an applies anywhere—a clash with non- fi eld network for the IDF powered by unmanned aircraft system (UAS), uniformed insurgents a few blocks high-bandwidth data links and an An- tank crew or even a Lockheed Martin down the street or armies operating droid-like, common operating system. F-35I—who is within range, carrying a long-range, mobile missile launchers At a time when the U.S. Air Force’s weapon that is neither too big nor too spread across an operational theater pursuit of distributed battle manage- small and, last but not least, can be spanning oceans, coastlines, moun- ment and command and control is lim- verbally directed to the right window, tains and deserts. To dominate a ited to demonstrations of connecting even when viewed from a different modern adversary, deploying weapons fl eets of diŽ erent stealthy aircraft, the angle. The process takes time, but it with su† cient precision and range is IDF has fi elded combined arms units must be resolved before the target no longer enough. The urgent new up to the battalion level with a sys- drifts to another fl oor or fl ees to an- challenge is to employ the right weap- tem called Smart Trigger developed other building. on from the right platform within sec- by state-owned arms supplier Rafael. Such a situation is one of the de- onds or minutes—not hours or days. How does Smart Trigger work? fi ning problems of modern warfare. A tour of Israeli aerospace and de- A Rafael employee, who requested This particular scenario involves a fense companies in early January by anonymity for security reasons, told

5 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AEROSPACE IN ISRAEL > Militarizing space p. 56 Industry evolution p. 58 UAS market shifts p. 61 Declassified sensors p. 62 Precision weapons p. 63

ISRAELI AIR FORCE The fundamental elements of the Smart Trigger system—a mobile, ad hoc mesh network; high-bandwidth data links; and a common, open archi tecture operating system—have NETWORK evolved over decades but only recently have come together to form an oper- ational network. NATO forces have standardized around the Link 16 network developed under the the Joint Tactical Informa- tion Distribution System (JTIDS), NEWS a time-division-multiple-access (TDMA) network that provided a state-of-the-art capability to transmit and receive data between aircraft and ground stations at rates up to about ISRAEL’S BNET DATA LINK 150 kbps when it was deployed in the > 1980s and 1990s. Attempts within HAS BEEN INTEGRATED NATO to replace Link 16 with a mod- ON F-35I ern, high-bandwidth internet-proto- col-based network have largely failed, with certain one-off exceptions such OPAL COMBAT CLOUD as the Tactical Targeting Network > Technology deployed on the U.S. Na- SYSTEM RECENTLY vy’s E-2D fleet. DECLASSIFIED As a non-NATO member that pre- fers to operate independently, Israel’s defense industry was never restrained by the limitations imposed by the al- > SMART TRIGGER NOW liance’s rigid standards. As a result, CLEARED FOR EXPORT Rafael developed and deployed the MARKET AS FIRE WEAVER Ravnet-300 airborne data link for Israeli fighters 20 years ago, providing the Israeli Air Force with data trans- mission speeds an order of magnitude faster than those offered by JTIDS. Given a relatively small, self-con- tained military, Israel also has anoth- Steve Trimble Tel Aviv By combining wideband data links, a combat cloud architecture and collaborative ap- er advantage compared to NATO: an plications, the IDF has conquered the challenge of distributed command and control. ability to affordably upgrade networks his is the scenario: A soldier identifi es a target—say, Aviation Week revealed how far the over time. The introduction of fast- the third window from the left on the fourth fl oor of a Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have Aviation Week how the IDF’s existing clude whether they are close enough er microprocessors during the last come toward conquering this chal- technology solves the urban threat and carrying a weapon that complies decade, such as the Intel i3, allowed nondescript structure deep inside a crowded city—but lenge. As a self-contained unit spared recognition problem within seconds. with the rules of engagement. The Rafael to take the next step. Although it is beyond the eŽ ective range of his rifl e. the restrictions of adhering to NATO Take, for example, the target on the network then selects the best option. somewhat unnoticed outside the coun- T standards, Israeli companies have fourth floor of the urban building. If the selected platform is the armed try, the IDF has deployed Rafael’s new Now the search begins. The soldier crowded, urban environment, but it developed and delivered a battle- Instead of keying a voice radio, the UAS, the drone’s remote operator BNET data link across the military needs to fi nd a friendly “shooter”—an applies anywhere—a clash with non- fi eld network for the IDF powered by soldier presses a button on the “smart sitting in a ground control station over the last five years. In a largely unmanned aircraft system (UAS), uniformed insurgents a few blocks high-bandwidth data links and an An- sight” of his M-16. The battlefield has receives automated notification as unheralded achievement, Rafael has tank crew or even a Lockheed Martin down the street or armies operating droid-like, common operating system. already been indexed at the individual a target marker appears on the sen- integrated BNET on the F-35I—one of F-35I—who is within range, carrying a long-range, mobile missile launchers At a time when the U.S. Air Force’s pixel level on a geospatial reference sor display. The marker identifies the the key upgrades, along with an Israe- weapon that is neither too big nor too spread across an operational theater pursuit of distributed battle manage- system. Moreover, each of the bat - same window seen by the rifleman, li electronic warfare suite, for Israel’s small and, last but not least, can be spanning oceans, coastlines, moun- ment and command and control is lim- talion’s nodes, from the M-16 to the but from the perspective of the sen- unique variant of the Lightning II. verbally directed to the right window, tains and deserts. To dominate a ited to demonstrations of connecting tank to the UAS, are using the same sor onboard the UAS. The UAS oper- “If our competitors talked about even when viewed from a different modern adversary, deploying weapons fl eets of diŽ erent stealthy aircraft, the network. The press of the button on a ator communicates by secure voice or one, two, five or 10 [Mbps], we talk angle. The process takes time, but it with su† cient precision and range is IDF has fi elded combined arms units soldier’s weapon sends a tender, or re- video chat with the rifleman to confirm about 20 and 40 [Mbps] on the recep- must be resolved before the target no longer enough. The urgent new up to the battalion level with a sys- quest, to a processor on the network. the target is still valid. If the solider tion rate,” another Rafael employee drifts to another fl oor or fl ees to an- challenge is to employ the right weap- tem called Smart Trigger developed The processor’s operating system au- confirms, the UAS operator is cleared says, describing BNET. other building. on from the right platform within sec- by state-owned arms supplier Rafael. tomatically invites each of the nodes to fire. In ideal terms, the entire “sen- As a software-defined radio, the Such a situation is one of the de- onds or minutes—not hours or days. How does Smart Trigger work? to bid on the platform best placed to sor-to-shooter loop,” which involves BNET data link is able to transmit fi ning problems of modern warfare. A tour of Israeli aerospace and de- A Rafael employee, who requested engage the target. The bid responses multiple platforms and complex coor- and receive using multiple wave - This particular scenario involves a fense companies in early January by anonymity for security reasons, told are evaluated on parameters that in- dination, is closed in less than 10 sec. forms, solving one of the hardest

5 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 53 AEROSPACE IN ISRAEL

problems of interoperability with- talk to helicopters, and another radio ber-channel databus and downloads in a military. By using a directional to receive videos from di erent sourc- the data collected by the sensors, antenna with a narrow 1.2 deg. of di- es. Now, all this is done in a single box: says an IAI employee. The aircraft’s vergence, transmissions have a low common voice, video and data.” sensor information is now available probability of intercept. But the communication system is on the network, using BNET or any But a network based on soft- only part of the IDF’s capability. In other data link. The system also in- ware-defi ned radios implies another addition to a common network, the cludes an application framework critical shift in military communica- IDF also has deployed a fully devel- layer, allowing users to develop their tions. It is similar to the difference oped combat cloud. In 2019, the IDF own “apps.” between communicating by a walk- fi rst declassifi ed the Israel Aerospace The overall system, including the

A formation of F-35Is  ies over Jerusalem. The Israeli Air Force has integrated BNET tactical radios in the F-35I, allowing the stealthy  ghter to communicate with all friendly forces on a wideband data link.

ISRAELI AIR FORCE ie-talkie and a smartphone. Tradi- Industries (IAI) command and control BNET data link, Opal combat cloud tional military radios are designed to system called Opal. In reality, Opal is and Smart Trigger application, are al- communicate only with other radios a box that is installed on the IDF’s ready in operation by the IDF. Some sharing the same frequency. A com- various platforms. By plugging Opal elements, including Opal, were intro- mercial smartphone, by contrast, is into a network such as BNET, the duced over 15 years ago, while others, designed to communicate with any IDF’s units are able to share a com- such as BNET, appeared in the last other compatible device, even those mon operational picture that displays few years. The IDF now has cleared that do not share the same network real-time situational awareness with the technologies for sale on the ex- or operating system. The BNET uses multilevel security, depending on the port market. The BNET is o ered as a similar approach. user’s access. It is similar to a wide-ar- Global Link, and Smart Trigger is sold “Coming from the military side, ea network in an o‘ ce building, but to foreign militaries under the Fire usually for every type of communica- deployed on moving platforms in a Weaver brand. Export customers for tion, there’s a special box,” the Rafael battlefi eld environment. BNET now include India, which is de- employee said. “You have one radio to In an aircraft, Opal connects to a ploying hundreds of the radios within talk to an aircraft, another radio to military standard 1553 databus or fi - its military, Rafael says. c

5 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AEROSPACE IN ISRAEL DISCOVER ANALYZE problems of interoperability with- talk to helicopters, and another radio ber-channel databus and downloads PLAN in a military. By using a directional to receive videos from di erent sourc- the data collected by the sensors, antenna with a narrow 1.2 deg. of di- es. Now, all this is done in a single box: says an IAI employee. The aircraft’s FORECAST vergence, transmissions have a low common voice, video and data.” sensor information is now available probability of intercept. But the communication system is on the network, using BNET or any But a network based on soft- only part of the IDF’s capability. In other data link. The system also in- ware-defi ned radios implies another addition to a common network, the cludes an application framework critical shift in military communica- IDF also has deployed a fully devel- layer, allowing users to develop their tions. It is similar to the difference oped combat cloud. In 2019, the IDF own “apps.” between communicating by a walk- fi rst declassifi ed the Israel Aerospace The overall system, including the

A formation of F-35Is  ies over Jerusalem. The Israeli Air Force has integrated BNET tactical radios in the F-35I, allowing the stealthy  ghter to communicate with all friendly forces on a wideband data link. Predictive Intelligence to Drive Results

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ISRAELI AIR FORCE Take your business to the next level. ie-talkie and a smartphone. Tradi- Industries (IAI) command and control BNET data link, Opal combat cloud tional military radios are designed to system called Opal. In reality, Opal is and Smart Trigger application, are al- communicate only with other radios a box that is installed on the IDF’s ready in operation by the IDF. Some For more information, visit sharing the same frequency. A com- various platforms. By plugging Opal elements, including Opal, were intro- mercial smartphone, by contrast, is into a network such as BNET, the duced over 15 years ago, while others, aviationweek.com/forecasts designed to communicate with any IDF’s units are able to share a com- such as BNET, appeared in the last or call 866.857.0148 other compatible device, even those mon operational picture that displays few years. The IDF now has cleared that do not share the same network real-time situational awareness with the technologies for sale on the ex- or +1.847.763.9147 or operating system. The BNET uses multilevel security, depending on the port market. The BNET is o ered as a similar approach. user’s access. It is similar to a wide-ar- Global Link, and Smart Trigger is sold Available for: “Coming from the military side, ea network in an o‘ ce building, but to foreign militaries under the Fire COMMERCIAL usually for every type of communica- deployed on moving platforms in a Weaver brand. Export customers for tion, there’s a special box,” the Rafael battlefi eld environment. BNET now include India, which is de- MILITARY employee said. “You have one radio to In an aircraft, Opal connects to a ploying hundreds of the radios within BUSINESS talk to an aircraft, another radio to military standard 1553 databus or fi - its military, Rafael says. c HELICOPTER

5 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AEROSPACE IN ISRAEL

clients rather than commercial cus- New Space Embrace tomers. The transition implies a major shift in direction for Israeli companies that > RAFAEL WINS SECRET SATELLITE ORDER have previously specialized in build- IAI CONSIDERS ON-DEMAND LAUNCH SERVICE ing and launching large, sophisticated > spacecraft from purpose-built rock- ets, but industry officials agree that Steve Trimble Tel Aviv change is necessary. fter entering the space busi- constellation for research purposes, “If we stay in the same place, the ness more than 30 years ago, officials say. market will move away,” says Boaz ARafael’s strategy has added The spacecraft for both of Rafael’s Levy, general manager and executive a recent twist. No longer content to future constellations fall within the vice president of IAI’s Systems, Mis- remain a subcontractor for satellites niche of nanosatellites, a category siles and Space Group. “So we need and rocket launchers, Israel’s sec - defined by a mass less than about 10 to follow the market, and that’s what ond-largest state-owned aerospace kg (22 lb.). The development of such we are doing.” company has decided to challenge proliferated constellations for low In fact, IAI launched a 5-kg nano- Israel Aerospace Industries’ (IAI) Earth orbit (LEO) has spawned mul- satellite into orbit in 2017 for a compa- grip on the military space market at tiple “New Space” startups in North ny-funded research mission. But that the prime contractor level. America, Europe and Asia focused was only the first step. The company Although some details of Rafael’s mainly on the commercial market, is now working on plans to develop progress and plans are classified, but the trend had largely bypassed a proliferated constellation in LEO IAI

the Haifa-based company confirms Israel’s broad and mature space in- A key to Rafael’s ambitions in the it has made significant progress in a dustry—until recently. New Space market is the electric new quest to become an internation- But the New Space trend now has propulsion system set to be engaged al leader in the military sector of the firmly arrived in Israel, with a fa- this year on the joint French-Israeli New Space market. miliar local tilt toward the military A customer, whose identity and sector. During Aviation Week’s re - VENuS satellite (above). mission remain “very secret,” has se- cent tour of the country’s aerospace using spacecraft weighing up to 12 kg lected Rafael to develop and deploy a industry, all three major prime con- each, Levy says. Startups have the new satellite constellation in 2022, Ra- tractors—Elbit Systems, IAI and technology to develop commercial fael officials tell Aviation Week. During Rafael—confirmed active develop- products, but only established space the same year, Rafael also plans to ment in the New Space market, al- companies like IAI have the capabil- launch a company-funded satellite though mainly focused on military ities to pursue more sophisticated

56 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AEROSPACE IN ISRAEL ELBIT SYSTEMS clients rather than commercial cus- market niches, such as space-based, New Space Embrace tomers. space situational awareness for mili- The transition implies a major shift tary customers, he said. in direction for Israeli companies that “This is something that the big com- > RAFAEL WINS SECRET SATELLITE ORDER have previously specialized in build- panies can bring to the table because IAI CONSIDERS ON-DEMAND LAUNCH SERVICE ing and launching large, sophisticated it requires all of the data that was on > spacecraft from purpose-built rock- the big satellites as well,” Levy says. ets, but industry officials agree that Another IAI capability—space Steve Trimble Tel Aviv change is necessary. launch—is ripe for expanding in the fter entering the space busi- constellation for research purposes, “If we stay in the same place, the New Space era. Despite Israel’s geo- ness more than 30 years ago, officials say. market will move away,” says Boaz graphic position, which requires ener- ARafael’s strategy has added The spacecraft for both of Rafael’s Levy, general manager and executive gy-consuming westward launch trajec- a recent twist. No longer content to future constellations fall within the vice president of IAI’s Systems, Mis- tories, IAI already supplies the Shavit remain a subcontractor for satellites niche of nanosatellites, a category siles and Space Group. “So we need rocket with the capability of lofting and rocket launchers, Israel’s sec - defined by a mass less than about 10 to follow the market, and that’s what payloads up to 250 kg into orbit. The ond-largest state-owned aerospace kg (22 lb.). The development of such we are doing.” company is also interested in adding a company has decided to challenge proliferated constellations for low In fact, IAI launched a 5-kg nano- new capability for on-demand launch- Israel Aerospace Industries’ (IAI) Earth orbit (LEO) has spawned mul- satellite into orbit in 2017 for a compa- es, Levy says. As such, the Haifa-based grip on the military space market at tiple “New Space” startups in North ny-funded research mission. But that aerospace manufacturer is analyzing the prime contractor level. America, Europe and Asia focused was only the first step. The company several options for on-demand launch Although some details of Rafael’s mainly on the commercial market, is now working on plans to develop systems. Asked if IAI was considering Two Israeli aerospace contractors have launched nanosatellites, including progress and plans are classified, but the trend had largely bypassed a proliferated constellation in LEO only ground-launched options, Levy Elbit’s Nanova (above) spacecraft, as they research options for launching replied: “Not necessarily.” future constellations in low Earth orbit. IAI Elbit Systems, an established suppli- er of advanced electro-optical camera and make it better,” a Rafael em- example, we could put that same size payloads for satellites, also has moved ployee says. inside a more advanced electro-optical toward entering the New Space field. In One approach is to adapt the sys- design that allows multiple sensors. December, Elbit successfully launched tem to a military customer. A com- Then, all of a sudden, you’re getting the 5 kg Nanova satellite with a com- mercial startup such as Planet Labs resolution and you’re getting swath.” munication payload into a polar orbit. constructs an updated, composite im- Israel’s space industry also has The Nanova, which was developed with age of the Earth every day, albeit at a unique technologies in development. an American company, resulted from a resolution of about 3-5 m. That suits One of the factors that determines the “medium-level” internal investment in the requirements for a diverse com- image resolution of a nanosatellite is nanosatellite technology, says Joseph mercial customer base needing only the altitude of the orbit. A lower al- Gaspar, Elbit’s executive vice president aggregated data. But a military oper- titude produces sharper images, but and chief financial officer. ator is usually interested in revisiting the relatively higher concentration of “We are not really sure at this point only certain areas daily rather than atmospheric molecules increases the in time how this market is going to the entire planet, the employee says. drag. The exposure to greater atmo- develop,” Gaspar says. “We’re keeping “So maybe in our solution we could spheric resistance limits the space- our hands on that technology. But if be a bit more humble and not image craft’s lifetime in orbit. you ask: ‘Do we invest a lot of money the whole world, but bring better However, two decades ago Rafael in that?’ I would say, no. We do invest, value to a defense customer because started working on a potential solu- and if something explodes in that area we’re only going to be imaging the tion to this problem: a family of small, we will be able to bring our solutions.” area that’s interesting to him and so subkilowatt electric propulsion sys- The challenges of adapting nano- maybe produce that higher resolu- tems. In partnership with the French and small-scale satellites to a military tion,” the Rafael employee says. space agency CNES, the company is application are not trivial. Comple- Another factor in Rafael’s favor, set to test a Hall effect thruster in or- mentary metal-oxide-semiconductor the employee adds, is the company’s bit this year. IAI’s Vegetation and En- (CMOS)-based electro-optical sensors experience in the airborne market. vironment monitoring on a New Micro are deployed on commercial nanosat- The company’s Lightning 5 targeting Satellite (VENuS) launched in August ellites, but the rules of physics in such pod, for example, has improved signifi- 2017 to an altitude of 720 km. By acti- the Haifa-based company confirms Israel’s broad and mature space in- A key to Rafael’s ambitions in the a small payload limit image resolution cantly over five generations, but the vating Rafael’s R-400EPS thrusters, it has made significant progress in a dustry—until recently. New Space market is the electric to about 3-5 m. For the purposes of size and weight of the sensor has not the satellite will reposition later this new quest to become an internation- But the New Space trend now has propulsion system set to be engaged identification, tracking and targeting, changed, the employee says. To that year to a lower altitude of 410 km. al leader in the military sector of the firmly arrived in Israel, with a fa- military operators often require reso- end, aerospace companies under- “If I have an amazing electric pro- this year on the joint French-Israeli New Space market. miliar local tilt toward the military lution at the sub-meter level. stand how to make generational im- pulsion system in-house, I’m able to go A customer, whose identity and sector. During Aviation Week’s re - VENuS satellite (above). This is where Israeli aerospace provements in sensor quality without to lower altitudes,” the Rafael employ- mission remain “very secret,” has se- cent tour of the country’s aerospace using spacecraft weighing up to 12 kg industry’s depth in developing space increasing the size of the payload. ee says. “I’m able to [do so] with the lected Rafael to develop and deploy a industry, all three major prime con- each, Levy says. Startups have the and airborne sensors, lightweight ma- “We’re taking that capability and same satellite image at higher resolu- new satellite constellation in 2022, Ra- tractors—Elbit Systems, IAI and technology to develop commercial terials and advanced analytics may applying it to our space payloads, tions and be able to have a longer life. fael officials tell Aviation Week. During Rafael—confirmed active develop- products, but only established space come into play. getting the most amount of resolu- When everyone out there is talking the same year, Rafael also plans to ment in the New Space market, al- companies like IAI have the capabil- “So the question is, how can we do tion while still confining ourselves to about electrical propulsion, I actually launch a company-funded satellite though mainly focused on military ities to pursue more sophisticated the same thing in that same package a small size,” the employee says. “For have one.” c

56 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 57 AEROSPACE IN ISRAEL

Industry Evolution Continues idation seem remote. In June, IAI Chairman Harel Locker, the prime Amid Israeli Political Crisis minister’s former chief of staff, told Aviation Week that a merger with Ra- > MINORITY OFFERING FOR IAI SET TO MOVE FORWARD fael, the second-largest, state-owned defense company, was necessary and > COMMERCIAL DIVISION’S WEAKNESS HAS BEEN MITIGATED “inevitable.” By October, however, Locker had backed off those state - Steve Trimble Haifa and Tel Aviv, Israel ments, telling the Israeli press there were no plans for any such move. yearlong political crisis that 20-year-old proposal for the initial Instead, IAI is preparing for an IPO has paralyzed policymaking public offering (IPO). that is expected to produce a financial A and procurement decisions Moreover, two of Israel’s industry windfall of about 4 billion shekels ($1.16 seems to have bypassed Israel’s aero- stalwarts have addressed two areas of billion), the proceeds of which would space and defense industry. Instead financial weakness over the last year. be split between the state treasury, the of waiting patiently for Israeli voters In 2019, Elbit Systems consummated defense ministry and IAI. to finally approve a permanent gov- a six-year-old plan to acquire former- The partial privatization also would ernment, the industry has acceler- ly state-owned and financially fragile add momentum toward efforts to re- ated what company executives have Israel Military Industries (IMI), the form IAI’s business culture. The com- called a long-overdue internal trans- maker of the Delilah cruise missile pany’s commercial aircraft business formation. and other munitions. Rafael subse- Most recently, Israel’s defense min- quently acquired Aeronautics, a pre- Israel’s aerospace industry is istry approved a proposal to allow viously independent manufacturer seeking to become more competitive Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) to of small unmanned aircraft systems. through consolidation and by publicly offer a minority of shares in Meanwhile, IAI has reorganized a the company to private investors. The commercial aircraft division respon- reforming traditionally underperform- prime minister’s office has yet to make sible for $600 million in losses over ing sectors such as IAI’s commercial a final decision, but IAI’s management the last decade. aircraft division and the recently has never come closer to fulfilling a The chances of further consol - acquired Israel Military Industries. IAI

58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AEROSPACE IN ISRAEL

Industry Evolution Continues idation seem remote. In June, IAI Chairman Harel Locker, the prime Amid Israeli Political Crisis minister’s former chief of staff, told Aviation Week that a merger with Ra- > MINORITY OFFERING FOR IAI SET TO MOVE FORWARD fael, the second-largest, state-owned defense company, was necessary and > COMMERCIAL DIVISION’S WEAKNESS HAS BEEN MITIGATED “inevitable.” By October, however, Locker had backed off those state - Steve Trimble Haifa and Tel Aviv, Israel ments, telling the Israeli press there were no plans for any such move. yearlong political crisis that 20-year-old proposal for the initial Instead, IAI is preparing for an IPO has paralyzed policymaking public offering (IPO). that is expected to produce a financial A and procurement decisions Moreover, two of Israel’s industry windfall of about 4 billion shekels ($1.16 seems to have bypassed Israel’s aero- stalwarts have addressed two areas of billion), the proceeds of which would MAY 12-13, 2020 space and defense industry. Instead financial weakness over the last year. be split between the state treasury, the of waiting patiently for Israeli voters In 2019, Elbit Systems consummated defense ministry and IAI. Belmond Charleston Place to finally approve a permanent gov- a six-year-old plan to acquire former- The partial privatization also would ernment, the industry has acceler- ly state-owned and financially fragile add momentum toward efforts to re- Charleston, SC ated what company executives have Israel Military Industries (IMI), the form IAI’s business culture. The com- called a long-overdue internal trans- maker of the Delilah cruise missile pany’s commercial aircraft business formation. and other munitions. Rafael subse- Designed for LEADERS and DECISION-MAKERS from OEMs to supplier Most recently, Israel’s defense min- quently acquired Aeronautics, a pre- Israel’s aerospace industry is istry approved a proposal to allow viously independent manufacturer seeking to become more competitive tiers in the Aerospace Manufacturing Industry Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) to of small unmanned aircraft systems. through consolidation and by publicly offer a minority of shares in Meanwhile, IAI has reorganized a the company to private investors. The commercial aircraft division respon- reforming traditionally underperform- The SpeedNews 8th Annual Aerospace Manufacturing Conference Topics focus on key components driving prime minister’s office has yet to make sible for $600 million in losses over ing sectors such as IAI’s commercial will bring together leading manufacturers and suppliers in the the industry: a final decision, but IAI’s management the last decade. aircraft division and the recently aerospace industry to present updates and developments in The future of aerospace manufacturing has never come closer to fulfilling a The chances of further consol - acquired Israel Military Industries. Operations: systems integration and agile manufacturing operations, capabilities and processes, innovation manufacturing IAI within manufacturing, modern machining technologies, and How automation and digitalization will transform aerospace manufacturing industry automation. How suppliers need to adopt and adapt to the new manufacturing era Delegates will gain a full understanding of the latest trends, challenges and Implication of additive manufacturing when forecasts in the aerospace manufacturing industry, and be provided with implementing advanced manufacturing insider knowledge and examples of products that can have a direct impact on How can innovation around manufacturing contribute to job creation and workforce diversity their operations and improve productivity and profitability. Who benefits from attending?

Equipment OEMs, sub-tier manufacturers, 81% 93% material and parts suppliers Supply chain executives and senior decision makers First time Delegates report they Delegates report they would Strategic planning, marketing executives and would “likely” or “very likely” recommend a Conference business development leaders attend another Conference. to a colleague or peer. Executives in production, operations, research & development, technology and engineering ShowCase Your Products or Services The ShowCase at SpeedNews’ Aerospace Manufacturing Conference is offering Sponsorships Sponsorships enable you to promote your brand, a select number of manufacturing, technology and product/service providers the products and/or services on the expansive Aviation opportunity to join this exclusive event. As a ShowCase sponsor, you will benefit from Week Network, and on-site throughout the Conference. Customized sponsorships are also available. The earlier two days of networking, knowledge building and learning about trends, innovations you begin your Sponsorship – the more valuable and issues affecting the global aerospace supply chain. it is! The Aviation Week Network averages more than two million page views per month – that’s millions of potential views of your logo if you start today! NEW! Take the Stage. Impress the Audience. To become a Sponsor contact Joanna Speed, Managing Director, A&D Conferences at +1-310-857-7691. Getting noticed is the initial step to selling into the industry. We are selecting three organizations to demonstrate their latest innovation in front of senior leaders and decision-makers. This is an unmatched opportunity to showcase your product to the industry in a 5-minute pitch!

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traces its roots to within four years rocket. We’re talking now to commu- of Israel’s independence in 1948, but nicate between several sources so that that segment has struggled in the last you optimize the trajectory to hit at the decade. Demand for IAI’s converted right place. Boeing freighters was inconsistent, “We acquired a losing business, but and the company failed to make a prof- we also paid according to the money,” it as a subcontractor building G280 Gaspar continues. “So I think it’s a good business jets for Gulfstream. During deal, both financially and from the stra- the last year, IAI has consolidated the tegic opportunities that we have today.” aircraft business from three units into Indeed, Elbit expects a “small oper- a single division. ational profit” for IMI’s financial finish Elbit faced a similar challenge to to 2019, Gaspar says, a turnaround af- absorb IMI, another state-owned ter years of red ink. business that operated at a loss. Still, The goal now for IMI is to enlarge privately owned Elbit considered IMI the business, especially on the export a good match, pairing the latter’s mu- market. Before the merger, about 80% nitions with Elbit’s electronics. By of IMI’s revenues came from Israel’s combining both portfolios, Elbit plans defense ministry, a rarity in Israel’s to launch new and improved weapons export-oriented defense industry. El- for foreign and domestic customers. Joseph Gaspar, chief financial officer bit’s relationship with IMI during 2019 In fact, Elbit has already won the opened the company’s sales prospects, first such contract to develop a new of Elbit Systems leading to a significant rebalancing. weapon based on IMI’s products, says and put in a lot more electronics with “It’s actually closer to 60/40 now. Joseph Gaspar, Elbit’s executive vice more software and things like ter- That is 40% international and 60% Is- president and chief financial officer. rain-following radar, correlations and raeli,” Gaspar says. “Looking into the Gaspar declined to offer further de- image identification,” Gaspar says. “By future, I think we’ll bring them up to tails, citing security restrictions. the way, we’re not talking now just to the [Isareli average]—maybe not 80% “You take whatever they have done communicate to that missile or to that exports, but maybe 70%.” c

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Elbit Systems unveiled the Hermes traces its roots to within four years rocket. We’re talking now to commu- Israeli UAS Market Shifts From 900 over a decade ago but has since of Israel’s independence in 1948, but nicate between several sources so that shifted from a platform-centric to a that segment has struggled in the last you optimize the trajectory to hit at the Platforms to Networks, Gap-fillers solution-oriented approach for the decade. Demand for IAI’s converted right place. Boeing freighters was inconsistent, “We acquired a losing business, but > RECENT CONTRACT WIN TIPS OFF NEW STRATEGY UAS market. and the company failed to make a prof- we also paid according to the money,” MICRO-UAVS, LOITERING really of interest. So you have to put it as a subcontractor building G280 Gaspar continues. “So I think it’s a good > artificial intelligence on the platform. business jets for Gulfstream. During deal, both financially and from the stra- MUNITIONS GAIN TRACTION It’s a combination of requirements the last year, IAI has consolidated the tegic opportunities that we have today.” that, by the end of the day, provides a aircraft business from three units into Indeed, Elbit expects a “small oper- real-time, updated, situational recon- a single division. ational profit” for IMI’s financial finish naissance picture.” Elbit faced a similar challenge to to 2019, Gaspar says, a turnaround af- The trend also shows in the types of absorb IMI, another state-owned ter years of red ink. new UAS that have appeared on the ex- business that operated at a loss. Still, The goal now for IMI is to enlarge port market the last two years. Instead privately owned Elbit considered IMI the business, especially on the export of large, multipurpose platforms, the a good match, pairing the latter’s mu- market. Before the merger, about 80% industry has invested to fill a variety nitions with Elbit’s electronics. By of IMI’s revenues came from Israel’s of niche UAS categories for a variety combining both portfolios, Elbit plans defense ministry, a rarity in Israel’s of military operations. An example is to launch new and improved weapons export-oriented defense industry. El- the Elbit MAGNI, a vehicle-launched, for foreign and domestic customers. bit’s relationship with IMI during 2019 multirotor microdrone for land forces, Joseph Gaspar, chief financial officer ELBIT SYSTEMS In fact, Elbit has already won the opened the company’s sales prospects, Steve Trimble Haifa and Tel Aviv, Israel unveiled in November. Likewise, IAI an- first such contract to develop a new of Elbit Systems leading to a significant rebalancing. nounced in 2018 a project to integrate weapon based on IMI’s products, says and put in a lot more electronics with “It’s actually closer to 60/40 now. $153 million contract award nautical Systems (GA-ASI) Predator a BirdEye 650D UAS on a RoBattle Joseph Gaspar, Elbit’s executive vice more software and things like ter- That is 40% international and 60% Is- announced by Elbit Systems on B. Meanwhile, Israel and the U.S. have Unmanned Ground Vehicle. president and chief financial officer. rain-following radar, correlations and raeli,” Gaspar says. “Looking into the AOct. 6 last year did not seem ob- lost a duopoly position in the MALE RAFAEL Gaspar declined to offer further de- image identification,” Gaspar says. “By future, I think we’ll bring them up to viously significant. A Southeast Asian UAS market, as new competitors have tails, citing security restrictions. the way, we’re not talking now just to the [Isareli average]—maybe not 80% country had ordered a package of the emerged in Italy, Turkey and China. “You take whatever they have done communicate to that missile or to that exports, but maybe 70%.” c Israeli company’s unmanned aircraft The U.S. Defense Department has systems (UAS), including thousands of continued expanding its large-UAS THOR mini-UAS, “scores” of tactical inventory over the past decade by dis- Skylark UAS and the medium-altitude closing the existence of the GA-ASI long endurance (MALE) Hermes 450, Predator C, Lockheed Martin RQ-170 which is already operated in the region and funding development of the Boeing by Singapore and Thailand. MQ-25. Similar programs to develop But the order was anything but stealthy, large UAS have emerged in routine. Within the Haifa, Israel-based Russia and China. UAS and defense electronics company, Israel, meanwhile, has taken a dif- the program itself offered validation of ferent approach in the export market. a strategic shift in the UAS market that Although the country remains active in is reshaping the competitive landscape bidding competitions for MALE UAS in Israel started using fixed-wing in Israel and potentially beyond. Canada, Europe and elsewhere, there loitering munitions in the 1990s, but “That’s a strategic change,” says are no acknowledged plans by Elbit and the technology continues to evolve, Joseph Gaspar, Elbit’s executive vice IAI to develop a replacement for the including Rafael’s newly launched president and chief financial officer. Hermes and Heron UAS families. vertical-takeoff-and-landing Firefly. “But I’m not sure everybody has un- Instead, the companies have been derstood that yet. What we see in the focusing on new ways to improve the Moreover, Israeli industry has picked market is that whoever has the capa- value of the existing platforms while up on increasing demand for loitering Feb 24, 2020: Summit bility to integrate all of this—from filling gaps as new niches in the market munitions, a category IAI helped pop- Conrad Dubai communication channels to artificial gain popularity, such as vertical-take- ularize in the 1990s with the anti-radi- intelligence to smart ground stations off-and-landing drones and the next ation Harpy UAS. In 2019, IAI revealed Feb 25-26, 2020: Exhibition and smart airborne platforms—has a wave of loitering munitions. the “Mini Harpy,” a 45-kg (99-lb.) loiter- Dubai World Trade Center DESTINATION DUBAI significant advantage. And now we’re The Southeast Asia order last Octo- ing missile designed to strike a variety (Za’abeel Halls 2&3) not competing on UAV vs. UAV, per se. ber reflected that shift in market strat- of targets, including radars. Rafael also But you are competing on the solution egy. Instead of developing large new picked up on the trend by unveiling Attend the region’s leading conference and exhibition of a system.” platforms, the emphasis is on improv- Firefly, a loitering munition with verti- for commercial aviation maintenance. A decade has passed since the first ing the enablers for a network-based cal-takeoff-and-landing capability. Co-located with flight of the Hermes 900, Elbit’s last solutions approach, Gaspar says. “The Firefly is maybe the only mu- • 5,000+ attendees from airlines, manufacturers and the supply chain major product in the MALE UAS cat- “If we’re talking about this solution, nition in the world that you send on • 3 days of networking and learning with a 1 day summit and 2 day exhibition egory. It has been even longer since then there is a lot of value in improv- a mission and, if it doesn’t attack a • 330+ exhibitors showcasing the latest technology first flight, around 2004, of the Israel ing the communication links between target, you press ‘home’ and it comes Aerospace Industries (IAI) Heron TP, a the different platforms,” says Gaspar. back,” a Rafael employee says. “So it’s Register at mromiddleeast.aviationweek.com 5-ton MALE UAS in the same mission “You have to do some processing on the actually a flying grenade that comes class as the General Atomics Aero- platform itself so you transmit what’s back to you.” c

60 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 61 AEROSPACE IN ISRAEL

Declassified Sensors Fill Cracks in A software update shortly after the attacks began allowed the system to Israeli Air and Missile Defense Net automatically detect and classify such targets, the Rafael employee says. > RAFAEL ELABORATES ON NEW SKY SPOTTER TECHNOLOGY The declassification of the sensor allows Rafael to export Sky Spotter, > UPGRADE IN DEVELOPMENT FOR IRON DOME’S PRIMARY SENSOR and the company has identified a po- tential market broader than tradition- al military purposes. In November, for example, the airspace in Washington, D.C., was shut down briefly because air traffic surveillance radars mistook a large flock of birds for a potential unau-

Optical systems have joined Israel’s air surveillance net. Rafael’s declassi- fied Sky Spotter uses a combination of sensors to detect missed targets or those hidden from radar. thorized aircraft. Adding a wide-area optical sensor to the surveillance net- work can prevent such costly errors. Meanwhile, Israel continues to im- prove the country’s elaborate radio-fre- RAFAEL quency-based surveillance network for Steve Trimble Haifa and Tel Aviv, Israel air and missile threats. An order signed in December by the Czech Republic is srael’s multilayered surveil- es of 30-60 km (19-37 mi.). The system the first export sale of an improved lance network is evolving as local makes use of a midwave infrared sen- version of the ELM-2084 Multi-Mission Ithreats have expanded to include sor (MWIR), says a Rafael employee, Radar, the primary sensor for the Iron Russian stealth fighters, Iranian pre- who requested to remain anonymous Dome low-altitude air defense system. cision-guided rockets and kite-borne for security reasons. Elta Systems—the radar house of explosives from Gaza. By using geometric processing Israel Aerospace Industries—intro- And as Israel’s defense industry techniques from multiple angles, the duced gallium-nitride semiconductors works to field a new generation of pow- wide-area MWIR sensors are able to in the active, electronically scanned erful S-band air and missile defense classify and track the target as well array (AESA)-based ELM-2084 over radars, the country’s borders are now as determine its speed and trajecto- a decade ago, but the most recent ringed by a recently declassified net- ry, the Rafael employee said. The Sky version deployed by Elta uses a more work of stealth-exposing, ground-based Spotter can then slew a narrow-field- powerful, second-generation version of infrared sensors. of-view, short-wave infrared camera, an the processor material. Observers at the Paris Air Show ideal sensor to penetrate light clouds A company official also confirmed last year noticed a display at the or haze, or a charged-coupled device, that Elta has started development on a Rafael pavilion showing a new infra- like a telescopic sensor, to identify the further improvement of the ELM-2804 red wide-area surveillance sensor for target, the employee said. with a third generation of gallium-ni- export customers called Spy Spotter. The system also can receive cues tride material. The upgraded version Although it had been recently declas- from radars or radio-frequency receiv- is jointly funded by Israel’s defense sified by the Israel Defense Forces, ers to provide a visual identification of ministry and Elta’s internal research Rafael executives still were not allowed a target, rather than just its signature and development budget. Each im- to comment on the display during the in the radio-frequency spectrum, the provement drives a generational leap show or provide any further details of employee adds. in processing power. The range of a the system to foreign journalists. Israel’s interest in such technology is radio-frequency system is a function Some of the restrictions have since specifically security related. It fills a gap of transmitter power and aperture been lifted, and Rafael agreed to speak in an extensive radio-frequency-based size. Given that Elta has not adjusted about unclassified details of the system surveillance net for targets with a the aperture of the ELM-2084, any for the first time in early January. low-radar cross section or those aircraft increase in range must be driven by A chain of overlapping Sky Spot- that have an unclear signature. A recent more powerful and efficient uses of gal- ter sensors now on Israel’s borders move by Gaza-based insurgents to loft lium-nitride material. In this case, Elta is scanning a 20 X 90-deg. box of explosives over the border on kites and is still designing the new version of the the country’s airspace for incoming balloons offers a case in point. Such an ELM-2084, but the company expects threats, with the capability to detect improvised weapon has little signature a 10-25% increase in detection range, the infrared signature of fighters— in the radio-frequency spectrum, but depending on the final configuration stealthy or conventional—at distanc- they show up clearly on Sky Spotter. and when it is fielded.c

62 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AEROSPACE IN ISRAEL RAFAEL

Declassified Sensors Fill Cracks in A software update shortly after the attacks began allowed the system to Israeli Air and Missile Defense Net automatically detect and classify such targets, the Rafael employee says. > RAFAEL ELABORATES ON NEW SKY SPOTTER TECHNOLOGY The declassification of the sensor allows Rafael to export Sky Spotter, > UPGRADE IN DEVELOPMENT FOR IRON DOME’S PRIMARY SENSOR and the company has identified a po- tential market broader than tradition- al military purposes. In November, for example, the airspace in Washington, D.C., was shut down briefly because air Israel’s Precision Munitions traffic surveillance radars mistook a large flock of birds for a potential unau- Embraced by U.S. Market Optical systems have joined Israel’s > U.S. ARMY SELECTS SPIKE NLOS FOR AH-64E Rafael’s Spike NLOS has become a air surveillance net. Rafael’s declassi- popular munition option for helicop- fied Sky Spotter uses a combination > RAFAEL TEAMS WITH LOCKHEED MARTIN FOR SPICE 1000 PITCH ters since Israel declassi ed it of sensors to detect missed targets a decade ago. It will now enter the or those hidden from radar. Steve Trimble Haifa, Israel, and Lee Hudson Amarillo, Texas U.S. military’s weapons inventory. thorized aircraft. Adding a wide-area afael’s precision weapons are promised,” says Weiss, a former Israeli Israel fi rst demonstrated the maturi- optical sensor to the surveillance net- on a roll in the U.S. market. Air Force F-15 pilot. ty of the weapon decades ago. Although work can prevent such costly errors. ROnly a few months after Con- The guidance dilemma—along with declassifi ed in 2011, Israel’s domestic Meanwhile, Israel continues to im- gress approved funding to buy the new interest in long-range weapons— version, called Tammuz, was developed prove the country’s elaborate radio-fre- Iron Dome air defense system, the are driving the Army to consider al- based on lessons learned from the Yom RAFAEL quency-based surveillance network for U.S. Army decided to buy the Israeli ternatives to the AH-64’s standard Kippur War in 1973, when Israel was Steve Trimble Haifa and Tel Aviv, Israel air and missile threats. An order signed munition specialist’s long-range, an- munitions, which include the Lock- invaded by waves of heavy armored in December by the Czech Republic is ti-tank missile for the Boeing AH- heed Martin AGM-114 Hellfi re missile divisions launched almost simultane- srael’s multilayered surveil- es of 30-60 km (19-37 mi.). The system the first export sale of an improved 64E. Rafael also has teamed up with and guided rockets. In lance network is evolving as local makes use of a midwave infrared sen- version of the ELM-2084 Multi-Mission Lockheed Martin, a traditional com- the long term, the Army Ithreats have expanded to include sor (MWIR), says a Rafael employee, Radar, the primary sensor for the Iron petitor, to o„ er a precision-guided, plans to acquire a Long- Russian stealth fighters, Iranian pre- who requested to remain anonymous Dome low-altitude air defense system. 1,000-lb. bomb to the Air Force. Range Precision Muni- cision-guided rockets and kite-borne for security reasons. Elta Systems—the radar house of The new interest from the world’s tion (LRPM) with a range explosives from Gaza. By using geometric processing Israel Aerospace Industries—intro- largest weapons buyer marks a greater than 25 mi. In the And as Israel’s defense industry techniques from multiple angles, the duced gallium-nitride semiconductors change. In the past, the U.S. Defense meantime, the Army is works to field a new generation of pow- wide-area MWIR sensors are able to in the active, electronically scanned Department has acquired other types moving forward with an erful S-band air and missile defense classify and track the target as well array (AESA)-based ELM-2084 over of Israeli military technology such as interim acquisition of radars, the country’s borders are now as determine its speed and trajecto- a decade ago, but the most recent unmanned aircraft systems, sensors Spike Non-Line-of-Sight ringed by a recently declassified net- ry, the Rafael employee said. The Sky version deployed by Elta uses a more and electronics, but with a few minor (NLOS) missiles. work of stealth-exposing, ground-based Spotter can then slew a narrow-field- powerful, second-generation version of exceptions the U.S. has preferred to Late last year, the The Spice 1000 has become infrared sensors. of-view, short-wave infrared camera, an the processor material. buy large numbers of precision weap- Army Requirements Israel’s go-to weapon for air Observers at the Paris Air Show ideal sensor to penetrate light clouds A company official also confirmed ons from domestic suppliers. Oversight Council ap- strikes in Syria. last year noticed a display at the or haze, or a charged-coupled device, that Elta has started development on a Nonetheless, Israel’s weapons tech- proved a “directed re- Rafael pavilion showing a new infra- like a telescopic sensor, to identify the further improvement of the ELM-2804 nology has become more attractive as quirement for an inter- red wide-area surveillance sensor for target, the employee said. with a third generation of gallium-ni- requirements for navigation, guidance im capability, but that will be a limited ously by Syria and Egypt. The Tammuz export customers called Spy Spotter. The system also can receive cues tride material. The upgraded version and, in some cases, range adapt in re- fi elding,” said Brig. Gen. Walter Rugen, was developed secretly to use in a sur- Although it had been recently declas- from radars or radio-frequency receiv- is jointly funded by Israel’s defense sponse to new threats. As threats have director of the Army’s cross-function- prise counterattack. By the mid-1990s, sified by the Israel Defense Forces, ers to provide a visual identification of ministry and Elta’s internal research shifted from insurgents and rogue al team for Future Vertical Lift. the Israel Defense Forces had also Rafael executives still were not allowed a target, rather than just its signature and development budget. Each im- states to great power competitors The decision comes five months developed the capability to have the to comment on the display during the in the radio-frequency spectrum, the provement drives a generational leap that can jam satellite signals, military after the Army staged a demonstration Elbit Systems Hermes 450 serve as a show or provide any further details of employee adds. in processing power. The range of a planners in the U.S. are scrambling to of the Spike NLOS on the AH-64E in tank-spotter for a Tammuz launched the system to foreign journalists. Israel’s interest in such technology is radio-frequency system is a function fi nd alternatives to GPS navigation for late August at Yuma Proving Ground by aircraft such as the AH-1 Cobra. Some of the restrictions have since specifically security related. It fills a gap of transmitter power and aperture precision weapons. in Arizona. The Army’s testers fired Rafael’s large, precision-guided been lifted, and Rafael agreed to speak in an extensive radio-frequency-based size. Given that Elta has not adjusted The GPS access problem is already the Spike from an AH-64E hovering bombs, including the Spice 1000, were about unclassified details of the system surveillance net for targets with a the aperture of the ELM-2084, any felt in Israel. Gideon Weiss, Rafael’s 200 ft. above the highest obstacle on developed with a similar guidance for the first time in early January. low-radar cross section or those aircraft increase in range must be driven by deputy general manger for business the range. The target was a mockup of doctrine. An onboard scene-matching A chain of overlapping Sky Spot- that have an unclear signature. A recent more powerful and efficient uses of gal- development, marketing and strategy, a Russian Tor M1 air defense system algorithm compares an image from ter sensors now on Israel’s borders move by Gaza-based insurgents to loft lium-nitride material. In this case, Elta noted in a Jan. 1 interview with Avia- 28.5 km. away. Moments before impact, the electro-optical seeker to an im- is scanning a 20 X 90-deg. box of explosives over the border on kites and is still designing the new version of the tion Week that his o• ce in Haifa sits the testers intentionally shut o„ a data age in the computer’s threat library. the country’s airspace for incoming balloons offers a case in point. Such an ELM-2084, but the company expects 40 km (25 mi.) from the Israeli border link used to send guidance updates to If the scene-match is correct, Spice threats, with the capability to detect improvised weapon has little signature a 10-25% increase in detection range, where Russian forces based in Syria the missile to see if would still hit the automatically acquires the target and the infrared signature of fighters— in the radio-frequency spectrum, but depending on the final configuration use electronic warfare. target. “It did so in a fi ery explosion,” homes in on the location provided by stealthy or conventional—at distanc- they show up clearly on Sky Spotter. and when it is fielded.c “The entire spectrum is now com- stated an Army report on the test. the seeker. c

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When Not To Fly By Mark Zee

ntil Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 Libya, Mali, North Korea, Somalia, Syria and Turkey. Only (PS752) was shot down just before dawn in Teh- on one occasion—Pakistan, in 2019—has a national authority Uran on Jan. 8, the tempting narrative was that the closed its airspace for reasons of conflict-zone risk. Govern- destruction of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in 2014 was a ments have more pressing motivations in trade, tourism and black swan event. commerce. This will not change. Iran’s acknowledgment that it shot down PS752 removes And yet government involvement is what is needed to that doubt and painfully validates our 5.5 years of work on solve things. The civil aviation industry has done what is airspace risk awareness, but it also makes clear that this within its power—there are no new initiatives that can work was not enough to prevent a repeat tragedy. It is now take us further.

evident that governments AFP/GETTY IMAGES The position that aircraft must play a more active role operators are solely responsi- in preventing airlines from ble for making risk decisions flying in conflict zones. favors the handful of large air- The work the aviation in- lines that have the resources dustry has done post-MH17 to continually assess risk. has not been for nothing. The overwhelming majority Far from it. Cooperation and cannot. For thousands of op- collaboration around risk erators, relying on internal among airlines and among or external support to make government departments, qualified, informed essential which was largely frowned risk decisions is simply not upon before MH17, has be- practical. The operational come acceptable. staffing of even a medium-size Risk awareness is higher airline is small, especially at than ever before. Informa- night, when most rapid-onset tion-sharing has moved from risk situations occur. small, closed circles to large, LIKE BUSINESSES UNDER Right now, only a handful of open groups. countries are active in prohib- But underlying that work iting their carriers from risky was an uncertainty around PRESSURE TO FLY THROUGH areas. But it works. the need for it all. The reason: On the night in question, Risk is nebulous. CONFLICT ZONES, COUNTRIES the U.S. had issued a notice A decision to avoid risk to airmen that prevented averts a situation that might CANNOT BE RELIED UPON its pilots and carriers from occur. Despite the usual operating in Iran, several scales of low, medium, and TO CLOSE RISKY AIRSPACE. hours before the shootdown. high, the true likelihood is al- If there were going to be an ways low. There is no data to incident, it would not involve provide answers afterward: a U.S. aircraft. What did not happen cannot be measured. Airline security When the U.S. prevents its carriers from flying through a managers are therefore under tremendous pressure. Money conflict zone, many airlines follow—especially when backed spent on risk avoidance has no clear billing code. But the up by Germany, France or the UK. But no system, orga- temptation to err on the side of saving costs is ever present. nization or clear channel exists for that information to be Herein lies the impasse. The ultimate final decision in ap- passed to all concerned. This must change. proach to risk lies with the airline or aircraft operator, which Each state has a duty to care for its citizens. Most gov- is in most cases a business. Passengers and pilots have an ernments have the resources to assess risk. This duty undeniable first priority to stay alive. of care needs to be extended to pilots and passengers A business has the same priority, of course. Every decision aboard aircraft. in a business will ultimately be a commercial decision to In the first weeks of 2020, international travel advice ensure it stays alive. This explains why airlines continued about Iraq and Iran from the foreign affairs departments of to fly to Tehran even when it was abundantly clear this was many countries was clear: Do not travel. That same advice a shootdown event. needs to extend to aircraft operators: Do not fly. c A lesson from the last five years of our work is that like businesses under pressure to fly through conflict zones, Mark Zee is the founder of Opsgroup, an organization of 7,000 members countries cannot be relied upon to close risky airspace or working in international flight operations that share information to improve issue damaging guidance about their own territories. Iran is awareness of risk, operational procedures and changes after MH17 exposed not alone in this. A string of other nations have made simi- the lack of collaboration in the industry. He also manages Safe Airspace: The lar decisions: Cyprus, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iraq, Japan, Kenya, Conflict Zone & Risk Database.

66 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 27-FEBRUARY 9, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST VIEWPOINT MILITARY AVIATION April 28-29, 2020 • Dallas, TX When Not To Fly LOGISTICS & MAINTENANCE By Mark Zee SYMPOSIUM (MALMS) ntil Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 Libya, Mali, North Korea, Somalia, Syria and Turkey. Only (PS752) was shot down just before dawn in Teh- on one occasion—Pakistan, in 2019—has a national authority Uran on Jan. 8, the tempting narrative was that the closed its airspace for reasons of conflict-zone risk. Govern- destruction of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in 2014 was a ments have more pressing motivations in trade, tourism and Network with Military and black swan event. commerce. This will not change. Iran’s acknowledgment that it shot down PS752 removes And yet government involvement is what is needed to that doubt and painfully validates our 5.5 years of work on solve things. The civil aviation industry has done what is Industry Sustainment Leaders airspace risk awareness, but it also makes clear that this within its power—there are no new initiatives that can work was not enough to prevent a repeat tragedy. It is now take us further. Join the conversation on improving military sustainment with the evident that governments AFP/GETTY IMAGES The position that aircraft must play a more active role operators are solely responsi- people that are driving process changes and readiness operations. in preventing airlines from ble for making risk decisions flying in conflict zones. favors the handful of large air- The work the aviation in- lines that have the resources dustry has done post-MH17 to continually assess risk. has not been for nothing. The overwhelming majority Far from it. Cooperation and cannot. For thousands of op- collaboration around risk erators, relying on internal among airlines and among or external support to make government departments, qualified, informed essential which was largely frowned risk decisions is simply not upon before MH17, has be- practical. The operational come acceptable. staffing of even a medium-size Risk awareness is higher airline is small, especially at than ever before. Informa- night, when most rapid-onset tion-sharing has moved from risk situations occur. small, closed circles to large, LIKE BUSINESSES UNDER Right now, only a handful of open groups. countries are active in prohib- But underlying that work iting their carriers from risky Speakers include: was an uncertainty around PRESSURE TO FLY THROUGH areas. But it works. the need for it all. The reason: On the night in question, Steven Morani Roberto Lt. Gen. Risk is nebulous. CONFLICT ZONES, COUNTRIES the U.S. had issued a notice Assistant Secretary Guerrero Warren Berry A decision to avoid risk to airmen that prevented of Defense for Deputy Assistant Deputy Chief of averts a situation that might CANNOT BE RELIED UPON its pilots and carriers from Materiel Readiness, Secretary of the Staff for Logistics, occur. Despite the usual operating in Iran, several OSD Air Force, Engineering and scales of low, medium, and TO CLOSE RISKY AIRSPACE. hours before the shootdown. Operational Energy, Force Protection, high, the true likelihood is al- If there were going to be an USAF USAF ways low. There is no data to incident, it would not involve provide answers afterward: a U.S. aircraft. What did not happen cannot be measured. Airline security When the U.S. prevents its carriers from flying through a managers are therefore under tremendous pressure. Money conflict zone, many airlines follow—especially when backed Brig. Gen. Brig. Gen. Dennis DÕAngelo spent on risk avoidance has no clear billing code. But the up by Germany, France or the UK. But no system, orga- John Kubinec Linda Hurry Director 448th temptation to err on the side of saving costs is ever present. nization or clear channel exists for that information to be Commander, Director of Logistics Supply Chain Herein lies the impasse. The ultimate final decision in ap- passed to all concerned. This must change. Warner Robins DCS/Logistics, Management proach to risk lies with the airline or aircraft operator, which Each state has a duty to care for its citizens. Most gov- Air Logistics Engineering & Force Wing, Air Force is in most cases a business. Passengers and pilots have an ernments have the resources to assess risk. This duty Complex, USAF Protection, USAF Sustainment Center, undeniable first priority to stay alive. of care needs to be extended to pilots and passengers Tinker AFB A business has the same priority, of course. Every decision aboard aircraft. in a business will ultimately be a commercial decision to In the first weeks of 2020, international travel advice ensure it stays alive. This explains why airlines continued about Iraq and Iran from the foreign affairs departments of to fly to Tehran even when it was abundantly clear this was many countries was clear: Do not travel. That same advice a shootdown event. needs to extend to aircraft operators: Do not fly. c A lesson from the last five years of our work is that like Registration is FREE for active, uniformed service men and women • Co-located with MRO Americas businesses under pressure to fly through conflict zones, Mark Zee is the founder of Opsgroup, an organization of 7,000 members countries cannot be relied upon to close risky airspace or working in international flight operations that share information to improve Learn more at militarylogistics.aviationweek.com issue damaging guidance about their own territories. Iran is awareness of risk, operational procedures and changes after MH17 exposed not alone in this. A string of other nations have made simi- the lack of collaboration in the industry. He also manages Safe Airspace: The #MALMS lar decisions: Cyprus, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iraq, Japan, Kenya, Conflict Zone & Risk Database.

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