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General Mills ? attract customers. General Mills Despite several headwinds, this food company should Therefore, we expect General Mills operating margins to remain relatively intact over the next five years. continue to grow faster than the industry. However, the next year may be bumpy because the company's margins might be pressured by rising commodity costs. If the market overreacts to flat or slight by Mark Hugh Sam, CFA Thesis declines in profits and sends the stock to 5-star territory, Stock Analyst General Mills has a diversified and appetizing brand we'd gladly scoop up the shares. [email protected] Mark Hugh Sam, CFA does not have portfolio that is seeing sales growth above the a position in this stock. industry's 3% annual rate. We've awarded the firm a Date of Analysis October 27, 2004 narrow economic moat. Valuation Price as of Analysis $43.82 Our fair value estimate for General Mills remains $55 Helped by the marketing prowess of Betty Crocker and per share. We now assume that annualized sales the Pillsbury Doughboy, General Mills has the growth will average 5% (down from 6%) over the next five Stock Price ($) 47.0 number-one or -two market position in 13 food categories, years. We also now assume that operating margins will ranging from cereals to fruit snacks. These dominant stay flat at about 18.8% over this period. Previously we 37.0 brands contribute 80% of the company's sales. General expected margins to expand by more than 1 percentage Mills has more than 100 brands; 30 produce more than point over the next five years. We also have reduced our 27.0 $100 million in annual sales. Strong brands allow the capital expenditure assumptions to reflect the slower 00 01 02 03 04 company to garner favorable shelf space and premium assumed growth and have reduced our pension Morningstar Rating prices and give it an economic moat. assumptions to reflect improvement in the company's Last Closing Price $44.25 pension liability. Fair Value $55.00 We think General Mills should be able to at least Consider Buy $46.90 maintain its narrow moat. Its business has high Consider Sell $72.20 Business Risk Below Avg barriers to entry, including economy of scale requirements Risk Economic Moat Narrow to cover branding and distribution costs as well as finite General Mills' debt load remains high. Until the firm Industry Food Mfg. shelf space in stores. Agricultural trade barriers keep reduces its financial leverage, we'll be keeping a Sector Consumer Goods foreign competition to a minimum. General Mills close eye on the balance sheet. Ticker GIS continues to beef up its competitive advantages and Data as of last close: 10/29/2004 increase sales through product innovation and improved distribution. Bulls Say About 80% of General Mills' foods are ready to eat or General Mills constantly launches new products and require less than 15 minutes to prepare, catering to our flavors catering to the major trends of healthy and time-starved culture. convenient foods. New products like Nouriche are part of We expect the company's two international joint the 25% of the firm's major brands that are increasing ventures for cereal and snacks to double sales by 2010 sales about 10% annually. In addition, General Mills is with double-digit margins. finding new ways to distribute its products, including The dividend yield is well above 2%. General Mills has airlines (Total cereal with Yoplait yogurt for breakfast), paid dividends uninterrupted and without reduction for convenience stores, natural-food stores, and restaurants, 106 consecutive years. where it is now the number-two food-service General Mills' cereal division increased its dollar manufacturer with $1.8 billion in annual sales. market share from 23% in 1982 to 32% in 2002. Yoplait is the number-one yogurt brand in the United Even though many food makers are experiencing States with about 37% share, and it's still growing at pricing pressure (and margin compression) as a result double-digit rates, thanks to new products like of the Wal-Mart effect and consolidation among food Nouriche. retailers, we don't think General Mills will be hurt as badly as smaller players in the industry. The retailers need General Mills' dominant brands to fill shelf space and Bears Say Analyst Report Continued Stock Price as of Analysis Date: $43.82 Cheerios, Lucky Charms, Yoplait, Progresso, and Old El Close Competitors TTM Sales $Mil Market Cap $Mil Paso. Sales within the United States account for about General Mills 11,137 16,815 80% of the company's total revenue. PepsiCo 28,104 83,990 Kraft Foods 31,708 57,132 Sara Lee 19,059 18,399 Strategy: General Mills aims for profitable growth Morningstar data as of October 29, 2004. through four main drivers: product innovation in its current and new brands, channel expansion (vending machines, convenience stores, natural and organic stores, The firm reduced its earnings forecast twice in fiscal etc.), international expansion (through its $1 billion wholly 2004 and has already reduced its outlook for fiscal owned subsidiary), and margin expansion from cost 2005. This questions management's ability to accurately synergies and productivity improvements. gauge its business prospects. General Mills is under investigation by the Securities Management: Steve Sanger joined the company in 1974 and Exchange Commission. This brings into question and has been chairman and CEO since 1995. He management's integrity, but we believe any SEC action previously ran Yoplait USA and Big G, the company's will not be severe. cereal division. Most employees own stock; the top The company won't be able to significantly increase officers own shares averaging 11 times their base salary. earnings per share through stock buybacks for the next In the past, the true cost of options issued has been buried couple of years, as it is allocating cash flow to reduce in the footnotes. If options had been accounted for on the debt. income statement in 2002, earnings would have fallen Diageo still owns about 29 million shares or about 8% 15%. General Mills has changed its current option plan to of General Mills' shares. This overhang in the market a combination option and restricted-stock plan in 2004. may keep the stock price from advancing significantly. We are indifferent between issuing options or restricted shares as long as the firm expenses the costs on the income statement. Financial Overview Growth: Revenue increased 5% in fiscal 2004. Over the past five years, annual compound growth has been terrific, with revenue up 16% through internal growth and acquisitions. Diluted earnings per share increased 13% annually over that time. Profitability: General Mills' operating margins and returns on assets have generally placed the firm in the top quintile of food companies. Financial Health: The company has very high financial leverage because of the $5 billion of Pillsbury's debt assumed in the merger. We will feel much more comfortable when General Mills completes its planned repayment of $2 billion in debt by 2006. Company Overview Profile: General Mills is the second-largest U.S.-based food company. It employs some of the best-known food personalities, including Betty Crocker, the Pillsbury Doughboy, and the Green Giant. Other brands include © 2004 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Intended for U.S. residents only. Data as originally reported. Certain financial data is proprietary to Mergent, Inc., S&P Comstock and Multex.com, Inc. The information contained ® herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely. This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. To order reprints or get permission to use this information, call 312-696-6100. ß .
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