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Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, August 05, 2021

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Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, August 05, 2021 Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, August 05, 2021 FROM EQUITY REPORT KEY INDEX KEY INDEX Chg Ytd Vol Chg Ytd Vol Ramayana Lestari Sentosa: Decent Turnaround, Close Close Challenging Outlook (RALS.IJ IDR 620 BUY TP. IDR 850) (%) (%) (US$ m) (%) (%) (US$ m) 1H21 earnings reached IDR147.2bn as the Idul Fitri shopping season Asean - 5 Asean - 5 fell in 2Q21 this year, still below our forecast but in-line with Indonesia 6.159 0,5 3,0 913 Indonesia 6,134 0.1 (1.0) 318 consensus estimates as the 2Q21 sales were half of the 2Q19 sales. Thailand 1.546 0,3 6,7 2.022 Thailand 1,568 (0.1) 0.2 1,454 The 1H21 GPM jumped to 44.5% as net consignments surged 40% Philippines 6.585 0,4 (7,8) 90 Philippines 7,855 (0.3) 5.2 87 yoy while opex was -1.9% yoy. Emergency PPKM will hit RALS’ Malaysia 1.491 (0,6) (8,4) 643 Malaysia 1,562 (0.5) (7.6) 338 customers as economic activities ground to a halt at the end of Jun Singapore 3.183 1,1 11,9 1.117 Singapore 3,173 (0.5) 3.4 908 to Aug 9, causing 34 temporary store closures while traffic will also Regional Regional tumble in the opened stores. Against this background, we revise our China 3.477 0,8 0,1 125.831 China 2,885 0.3 15.7 28,889 earnings estimates by -46.6% in 21F and -23.9% in 22F factoring in Hong Kong 26.427 0,9 (3,0) 21.697 Hong Kong 26,391 (0.2) 2.1 9,093 the anemic purchasing power. Maintain BUY with a TP of IDR850 (- Japan 27.584 (0,2) 0,5 14.454 Japan 23,380 (0.6) 16.8 10,278 IDR150). Korea 3.287 0,2 14,4 10.908 Korea 2,068 (0.8) 1.3 3,790 To see the full version of this report, please click here Taiwan 17.624 0,4 19,6 13.536 Taiwan 11,532 0.2 18.5 3,534 India 54.370 1,0 13,9 851 India 40,675 (0.3) 12.8 495 MARKET NEWS Nasdaq 14.781 0,1 14,7 249.192 Nasdaq 8,521 (0.6) 28.4 116,797 Dow Jones 34.793 (0,9) 13,7 12.070 Dow Jones 27,503 (1.0) 17.9 11,490 SECTOR ▪ Coal Mining: Indonesia coal reference price (HBA) of CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE USD130.99/ton for Aug 21. w-w m-m ytd w-w m-m ytd Rate Rate CORPORATE (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) ▪ Mitratel further strenghtening its tower portfolio Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14.313 1,2 1,1 (1,9) Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,115 (0.2) (0.7) 1.9 BI7DRRR % 3,50 - - (0,3) BI7DRRR % 5.00 - (0.3) (1.0) 10y Gov Indo bond 6,25 (0,1) (0,3) 0,4 10y Gov Indo bond 7.16 0.1 0.2 (0.9) PREVIOUS REPORTS HARD COMMODITY HARD COMMODITY ▪ Chandra Asri Petrochemical: Better-than-expected industry d-d m-m ytd d-d m-m ytd Unit Price Unit Price and future strategic alignment (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) ▪ Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa: The transformation programs Coal US$/ton 154 1,1 10,9 91,8 Coal US$/ton 67 (0.3) 0.2 (34.0) are bearing fruit Gold US$/toz 1.811 (0,0) 1,1 (4,6) Gold US$/toz 1,478 (0.0) (2.1) 15.2 ▪ Mitra Adiperkasa: An Arduous 2H21 Ahead Nickel US$/mt.ton 19.235 (0,8) 4,8 16,2 Nickel US$/mt.ton 13,315 (2.5) (20.7) 25.6 ▪ Semen Indonesia: Set for improvements in the second half Tin US$/mt.ton 35.940 (0,3) 9,5 74,9 Tin US$/mt.ton 16,771 1.5 1.7 (14.1) ▪ Adhi Karya: Weak results from higher non-operating SOFT COMMODITY SOFT COMMODITY expenses d-d m-m ytd d-d m-m ytd Unit Price Unit Price ▪ Harum Energy: Better core earnings - above expectations (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) ▪ Malindo Feedmill Indonesia: Hit by lower feed and DOC Cocoa US$/mt.ton 246 (2,3) (11,3) 32,9 Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,476 (1.0) 1.3 4.7 margins Corn US$/mt.ton 68 0,0 (9,3) 40,5 Corn US$/mt.ton 141 1.7 (2.5) 5.6 ▪ Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate: Recovery yet to be seen Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 70 (0,0) (8,8) 35,8 Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 56 0.6 (0.2) 24.3 ▪ Jasa Marga: Lifted by one-time gains Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 4.449 (0,5) 12,9 17,4 Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 61 (0.2) (1.4) 13.0 ▪ Kino Indonesia: Still struggling Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 170 (0,2) 5,3 12,8 Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,632 (1.3) 11.4 34.8 ▪ Kalbe Farma: Riding the health wave Rubber USd/kg 1.205 N/A 2,8 20,5 Rubber USd/kg 142 0.9 6.9 13.6 ▪ Surya Citra Media: Robust Performance, 2H21 still uncertain Pulp US$/tonne 447 (0,5) (0,7) 6,3 Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5 ▪ Covid-19: Weekly Update: Emerging signs of recovery Coffee US$/60kgbag 195 (0,3) 9,5 13,4 Coffee US$/60kgbag 72 0.3 7.9 3.5 ▪ Chandra Asri Petrochemical: The Wait is Over Sugar US$/MT 63 (0,8) (6,1) 44,9 Sugar US$/MT 345 0.7 1.3 3.6 ▪ Astra International : Better quarterly earnings Wheat US$/ton 1.404 - (3,3) 6,7 Wheat US$/ton 143 (1.9) 0.7 (5.1) Soy Oil US$/lb 246 (2,3) (11,3) 32,9 Soy Oil US$/lb 30 0.1 (3.4) 8.9 SoyBean US$/by 68 0,0 (9,3) 40,5 Soy Bean US$/by 871 0.1 (5.8) (1.3) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT Equity Research Company Update Wednesday,04 August 2021 BUY Ramayana Lestari Sentosa(RALS IJ) Maintained Decent Turnaround, Challenging Outlook Last price (IDR) 620 1H21 earnings reached IDR147.2bn as the Idul Fitri shopping season fell in Target Price (IDR) 850 2Q21 this year, still below our forecast but in-line with consensus estimates Upside/Downside 37.1% as the 2Q21 sales were half of the 2Q19 sales. The 1H21 GPM jumped to 44.5% Previous Target Price (IDR) 1,000 as net consignments surged 40% yoy while opex was -1.9% yoy. Emergency PPKM will hit RALS’ customers as economic activities ground to a halt at the Stock Statistics end of Jun to Aug 9, causing 34 temporary store closures while traffic will also Sector Retail tumble in the opened stores. Against this background, we revise our earnings Bloomberg Ticker RALS IJ estimates by -46.6% in 21F and -23.9% in 22F factoring in the anemic No of Shrs (mn) 7,096 purchasing power. Maintain BUY with a TP of IDR850 (-IDR150). Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 4,506/311 Below our initially expected rapid recovery. With the crucial 2Q21 sales of Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 20.0/1.4 IDR1.2tn (+119.8% yoy and 149.7% qoq), the 1H21 sales of IDR 1.7tn (+16.5% Major shareholders (%) yoy) are below our forecast and the consensus. The 2Q21 sales were still half the 2Q19 sales reflecting weak purchasing power in the mid-low income PT Ramayana Makmursentosa 55.9 segment during the pandemic. The GPM jumped 2.8 p.p yoy in 1H21 to 44.5% Paulus Tumewu 3.7 mainly driven by a +40% yoy increase in net consignments, yet still 44.7% below Estimated free float 37.1 the 2Q19 pre pandemic period. Opex was slightly down by -1.9% in 1H21 despite a 32.6% yoy increase in 2Q21 as Idul Fitri period sales were better than EPS Consensus (IDR) in the gloomy 2Q20. This culminated in IDR147.2bn of net income in 1H21, 2021F 2022F 2023F below our initial estimate but in line with the consensus. Danareksa 24.4 49.0 72.0 Consensus 33.2 51.9 59.7 An anaemic 2H21 is to be expected. Against the backdrop of the Delta Covid- 19 variant leading to a surge in new Covid-19 cases forcing the government to Danareksa/Cons (26.6) (5.6) 20.6 impose stricter PPKM since late Jun21 to 9 August 2021. The latest trend shows RALS relative to JCI Index fewer cases and with vaccination efforts being ramped up, traffic might gradually recover starting in the 3rd week of August. Nevertheless, especially for RALS, 2H21 will be slow, as the mid-low segment has suffered some disposable income losses for almost 2 months. Some negative impact too will be carried over to 2022, thus requiring a downward revision to earnings. Earnings estimates cut by -46.6% (21F) and -23.9% (22F). As we factor in net store closures, the challenging 2H21 and a slower 2022F. Sales are -17.7% and -16.6% for 2021F and 2022F, respectively, vs our previous figures. The result is forecast net income of IDR173.0bn (-46.6% vs our prev estimate) in 2021F and IDR347.8bn (-23.9% vs our prev estimate) in 2022F to be more conservative. Maintain BUY with a TP of IDR850 as we roll over our earnings to 2022F and apply lower estimates now at an average of 16.8x from previously 21.4x Source : Bloomberg (+1STD).
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