Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

NNoovvaa SSccoottiiaa Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

Prepared For: Prepared By:

Canmac Economics Limited April, 2012 Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

SECTION 1 - NOVA SCOTIA TRADING PARTNERS

GLOBAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

The Global economy continued to exhibit a fragile recovery in 2011 – with rescue plans for Greece and worries about Spanish banks adding to an uncertain recovery. Table 1.1 provides the latest World Bank Global Outlook (January, 2012). Overall world growth is expected to reach 2.5 percent in 2012 and 3.1 percent in 2013. Thereafter one can expect the next three years to exhibit growth in the 3.5 percent to 4.0 percent range as the world economy moves from recovery to the normal phase of the business cycle.

Table 1.1 The Global Outlook Summary Real GDP growth 2009 2010 2011e 2012f 2013f World -2.3 4.1 2.7 2.5 3.1 Memo item: World (PPP weights) -0.9 5.0 3.7 3.4 4.0 High income -3.7 3.0 1.6 1.4 2.0 Euro Area -4.2 1.7 1.6 -0.3 1.1 Japan -5.5 4.5 -0.9 1.9 1.6 United States -3.5 3.0 1.7 2.2 2.4 Developing Countries 2.0 7.3 6.0 5.4 6.0 East Asia and Pacific 7.5 9.7 8.2 7.8 7.8 Europe and Central Asia -6.5 5.2 5.3 3.2 4.0 Latin America and Caribbean -2.0 6.0 4.2 3.6 4.2 Middle East and N. Africa 4.0 3.6 1.7 2.3 3.2 South Asia 6.1 9.1 6.6 5.8 7.1 Sun-Saharan Africa 2.0 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.6 Source: World Bank. Notes: PPP = purchasing power parity, e = estimate, f = forecast.

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

Both the U.S. and Canadian economy are showing signs of revival from the recent recessionary period. The main forecast risk moving forward is for a high inflationary period followed by high interest rates to curb inflation. To date the U.S. and Canadian monetary policy authorities have been very accommodating.

The following assumptions are used in Canmac’s econometric simulation model to project Nova Scotia’s economic outlook.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -2021 Canadian GDP % Growth 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.1 US GDP % Growth (2002 $billions) 1.7 2.2 2.4 3.1 3.1

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

SECTION 2 - NOVA SCOTIA OUTLOOK GEARING UP FOR PROSPERITY

In 2010, the Nova Scotia economy stood at 945,000 persons. The economy had an economic output (Real GDP millions of $2002) of $29,951 and employed 452 thousand persons. The inflation rate was 2.2 percent and the unemployment rate was 9.3 percent. Historically, the Nova Scotia economy has underperformed relative to the Canadian economy. Charts 2.1 to 2.3 show that Nova Scotia’s average GDP growth

has been 1.3 percent compared to the average of all Canadian provinces of 1.5 percent. Nova Scotia’s personal disposable income per capita in 2010 was $27,308 compared to the all province average of $28,828. Finally, the province’s unemployment rate was 9.3 percent compared to the all province average of 8.6 percent.

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

By 2021, Canmac projects that:

• the economy will grow to 34,522 ($2002 millions); • the labour force will be 469.5 persons; • the inflation rate will be 2.5 percent, and • the unemployment rate will be 2.1 percent.

STRATEGIC DRIVERS ON THE DEMAND SIDE – TRADITIONAL MARKETS

Nova Scotia’s future economic success, like all small open economies, depends on the success of its export markets. It is export markets that drive provincial prosperity by earning income outside the province’s boundaries that are then respent in the domestic market. Figure 2.1 shows the province’s exports disaggregated into exports to Canada and international exports. The rest of Canada is a slightly more important market for Nova Scotia than the rest of the world with 53.8 percent of total exports. Exports to the rest of Canada is dominated by service exports (78.2 percent of total service exports) whereas international exports have 58.8 percent of total goods exports. In addition to the official exports, it should be mentioned that Nova Scotia has a high concentration of defence related establishments. Nova Scotia has approximately 40 percent of all Canadian military assets. Hence, Nova Scotia is also a high ‘exporter’ of defence services to the rest of Canada. Employment in this sector totaled over 10,000 in 2010 (military personnel only).

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

STRATEGIC DRIVER ON DEMAND SIDE - LARGE SCALE PROJECTS

Over the medium to long term, the Nova Scotia economy is poised for a major surge as its traditional ‘export’ markets receive a major boost from large projects. There are many exciting developments gathering momentum in the Nova Scotia economy. Some of the major projects are: 1) The $960 million Deep Panuke natural gas field is about to start production. 2) A $25 billion Irving Shipyard federal shipbuilding contract is in the planning stages. 3) A successful Shell bid of $971 million for offshore oil exploration rights was completed – the largest bid of its kind ever seen in Atlantic Canada. 4) A joint venture between the Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador governments to develop a hydro project on the lower sector of the Churchill River in Labrador will help boost investment and provide jobs for Nova Scotians between 2013-16. The $6.2 billion Lower Churchill Power Project includes a 180-kilometre, subsea transmission cable costing $1.2 billion that will bring hydro electricity to Cape Breton, Nova Scotia.

The total amount of new projects is impressive. Currently on the province’s books are major projects (over $300 million) in the following categories: • Shipbuilding, Energy, Oil & Gas Exploration and Development – $27.5+ billion. • Residential Development - $3.5+ billion. • Infrastructure and Education - $0.9+ billion.

In addition, there are other major projects (over $300 million) either nearing approval or under active consideration. These include: • Energy Related - $2.4+ billion. • Infrastructure and residential - $2.2+ billion.

Appendix A provides a more detailed listing of these projects.

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

LARGE PROJECT ECONOMIC IMPACTS

The potential economic impacts of these large capital projects will have a significant positive impact on Nova Scotia in the coming years. The Deep Panuke natural gas project is scheduled to come on stream in 2012 and provide direct employment of 200 workers and pump $150 million per year into the economy. The Shell exploration project will provide direct employment during the exploration phase but the real payoff will come with the potential development of further oil and gas in the offshore. The Lower Churchill project is expected to provide over 1,200 jobs to the Nova Scotia economy during the construction phase.

The major economic impact for the Nova Scotia economy will be the construction of Canada’s combat vessels at the Irving Shipyard in Halifax.

ECONOMIC IMPACT – IRVING SHIPBUILDING CONTRACT

An economic impact assessment of the $25 billion Irving Shipyard contract was completed by the Conference Board of Canada as part of the Irving Shipyard bid proposal. Chart 2.4 shows Nova Scotia real GDP emanating from the contract. As shown in the figure, output increases beginning in 2012 at $344 million greater than would be the case without the contract. Thereafter output increases steadily to a maximum of almost $1 billion ($977) in 2021 and stays over $800 million

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

until the conclusion of the project in 2030. This output change is due to three effects, 1) the direct project expenditures (less imports), 2) the respending of the project expenditures on local suppliers, and 3) the respending by households in Nova Scotia on Nova Scotia goods and services. In 2010, Nova Scotia’s real GDP was $29,951 million (2002$). It’s growth from 2010 was 1.91 percent. To a first approximation, a 1 percent increase in Nova Scotia real GDP implies a growth of $300 million (2002$). In 2012, the shipyard project will increase GDP growth by 1.14 percent over and above that expected by forecasters before the project award. This represents an almost doubling of the provincial forecast by what was expected before the contract award.

Total employment increases resulting from the shipyard project are provided in Chart 2.5. Employment will increase from 4,423 in 2012 and peak at 11,495 in 2020. Table 2.1 shows the distribution of total employment in 2020. As expected, manufacturing has the majority of employment opportunities. Interpretation of the Conference Board’s impacts suggests that a major portion of employment opportunities will come not from the existing resident labour force but new additions to the labour force (which occurs by decreasing out migration or by in migration).

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

Table 2.1 – Irving Shipyard Contract Nova Scotia Distribution of Total Employment 2020 Industry Distribution Total employment 11,495 Agriculture & other primary sector 34 Manufacturing 7,397 Construction 353 Utilities 50 Transportation & warehousing 127 Wholesale and retail trade 1,171 Finance, insurance and real estate 240 Other commercial service industries 2,040 Public administration & defence 84 Unemployment -5,095 Source: Conference Board of Canada

STRATEGIC DRIVER ON THE DEMAND SIDE – FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TRANSFERS

The other key demand driver for the Nova Scotia economy is federal government transfers. On balance, more comes into the province than leaves in taxes. In 2009, the Federal government spent $12.2 billion and had revenues of $5.0 billion in Nova Scotia. In particular, transfers for Canada pension payments and old age security will rise over the forecast period and provide an important stimulus to consumer expenditures.

STRATEGIC DRIVERS ON THE SUPPLY SIDE – DEMOGRAPHICS

It has been said that demographics explains 2/3 of everything. Accordingly, we have conducted a simulation projection with the Canmac Demographic Model. The overall assumptions follow historic trends with the exception of migration.

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

The overall demographic assumptions are 1) a fertility rate of 1.6 and 2) a net in-migration rate of 2,000 persons per year. These assumptions reflect historic fertility rates and a modest increase in net migration to reflect attraction of workers for the Shipyard contract and an increased emphasis by the provincial government to attract new migrants. A major feature of the demographic landscape is the contracting of the population cohorts for males and females 15-24 and 25-54 age groups. As shown in Charts 2.6 and 2.7 these age cohorts started declining in the mid 1990’s and continue to do so. In contrast, the 55+ age group has been growing.

Nova Scotia labour productivity – Real GDP per employee has averaged 1 percent growth over the historic period 1990 – 2010. There will be added pressure over the forecast period to counter the shrinking labour force. In our base case forecast we assume labour productivity will rise to 1.25 percent per year to overcome the potential labour supply shortage.

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

BASE CASE MACRO FORECAST

In summary, Nova Scotia’s economic drivers are:

Driver Outlook

Export of Good & Services Traditional exports and services slowing growth due to slow growth in major trading partners U.S. and the rest of Canada.

Upside potential for new markets in fast growing South East Asia.

Strong resurgence in shipbuilding markets and strong upside potential in oil and gas.

Defence Expenditures Excluding shipbuilding, defence expenditures will exhibit modest belt tightening.

Federal Government & Corporate Transfers Rise in pensions, etc. from ageing population.

Fall in employment insurance as unemployment rate falls.

Demographics In-migration up and fertility rate 1.6.

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

Based on these assumptions and conducting simulations with Canmac’s proprietory demographic – econometric macro model we find that:

• Overall Nova Scotia population (census adjusted) will grow from 945,206 in 2011 to 946,229 by 2021.

• Labour force population for the core labour force (15-64) will decrease from 647,595 in 2011 to 596,699 by 2021.

• The population 65+ will make up an increasing share of the total population from 162,780 in 2011 to 227,158 in 2021.

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

Chart 2.11 GDP at 2002 Prices Over the forecast period 2011 to %Change

2021 the Nova Scotia economy 2.5 will exhibit GDP growth in the 1.5 2 Average 1.35 1.5 percent range to 2016 and as the 1 Shipyard contract slows down 0.5 growth will slow to 1.1 percent. 0

Inflation rates, which are the 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Satatistics Canada, Canmac Economics consequence primarily of inflation Chart 2.12 - Nova Scotia Unemployment Rate in its trading partners will remain 12 low – in the 2.5 percent range. 10

The unemployment rate will fall 8 over the period reaching 2.1 6 percent by 2021. 4 2 The major forecast result and 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 strategic challenge over the Source: Satatistics Canada, Canmac Economics forecast period is that the Nova Chart 2.13 - Nova Scotia CPI Scotia economy’s growth is labour % Change 3 constrained. The economy has the 2.5 demand potential to reach higher 2 1.5 levels of growth but will be 1 constrained by available labour 0.5 0 supply. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Satatistics Canada, Canmac Economics

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

Labour supply can be increased by three generic methods: 1) increase in migration, 2) increase in productivity, and 3) increase in labour force participation rates. Hence over the forecast period, these will be the three policy priorities as businesses seek to increase production and governments seek to raise revenues to overcome the demands for health care from retiring baby boomers, etc.

The major message coming from the forecast simulations is the major structural change in the provincial economy – moving from a weak demand potential to a constrained supply potential. Historically, the province has had surplus labour. It is now entering a period of constrained labour. The provincial economy does not achieve its demand potential because it will lack the productive capacity to deliver the goods and services that are demanded under this scenario, there are upside risks to higher inflation rates as wage pressure builds. However, wage rates will make the province uncompetitive if not accompanied by productivity. The net results of this is a long period of stagnation – not unlike the Japanese experience.

An alternative scenario is possible – an era of high growth and modest inflation. The demand for the province’s goods and services have the potential to be realized if productivity growth is achieved.

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

SECTION 3 – NOVA SCOTIA RESIDENTIAL OUTLOOK

Nova Scotia’s residential sector is expected to show modest and then slow growth over the forecast period. Bright spots in the market will be upscale homes and new home construction for the Halifax market.

Nova Scotia’s residential sector is driven by demographics first and foremost and then by income levels. The young adult population is the most important source of household growth and in the coming decades, as the number of Nova Scotians in this age group diminishes then so will the overall demand for housing. Table 3.1 shows headship rates from the 2006 census data. Applying these to the Canmac population forecasts provides a projection of future household levels. These are provided in Chart 3.1.

Table 3.1 Nova Scotia Headship Rates Age Population Households Headship Rate 18-24 80,715 14,315 0.177352 25-34 105,225 49,195 0.467522 35-44 136,640 73,255 0.536117 45-54 148,900 82,640 0.555003 55-64 119,815 68,670 0.573134 65-74 73,300 46,260 0.631105 75+ 64,915 42,510 0.654856 Source: Computed from Statistics Canada

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

Housing starts in any given year depend on the projected household levels and the general state of the economy in a given year. Two additional sources for new housing starts not captured by headship rates are, 1) vacation homes and 2) population shifts within the province. The vacation home market is a growing market in Nova Scotia as the resident population with rising incomes acquire a vacation home. In addition there is a growing market from non-residents building a second home in the province.

The growth in the Halifax Region has resulted in a vibrant demand for new housing. The latest census data show strong growth in the Halifax Region and surrounding areas. Halifax County grew by 4.7 percent and Hants county by 2.7 percent.

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

Table 3.2 Population Growth Nova Scotia Counties 2006 – 2011 County 2006 Census 2011 Census % Change

Annapolis 21,438 20,756 -3.2 Antigonish 18,836 19,589 4 Cape Breton 105,928 101,619 -4.1 Colchester 50,023 50,968 1.9 Cumberland 32,046 31,353 -2.2 Digby 18,992 18,036 -5 Guysborough 9,058 8,143 -10.1 Halifax 372,858 390,328 4.7 Hants 41,182 42,304 2.7 Inverness 19,036 17,947 -5.7 Kings 60,035 60,589 0.9 Lunenburg 47,150 47,313 0.3 Pictou 46,513 45,643 -1.9 Queens 11,212 10,960 -2.2 Richmond 9,740 9,293 -4.6 Shelburne 15,544 14,496 -6.7 Victoria 7,594 7,115 -6.3 Yarmouth 26,277 25,275 -3.8 Statistics Canada Census Profile 2011 Catalogue no. 98-316-XWE. Ottawa. Released February 8, 2012.

Canmac’s Econometric Model predicts housing starts to average 4,087 units over the 2011 to 2021 period. Overtime, the changing demographics will trend the housing starts down so that by the end of the forecast period, housing starts will be 2,617 compared to the 2011 value of 4,695.

While the overall trend for new housing is down, it is likely that over the medium term, there is an increase in demand for the higher end market since the 55+ cohort is a growing segment of the population. However as this age cohort moves up in average age there will likely be a trend to downsize and of course ultimately to senior housing.

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

Appendix A – Major Projects

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

MAJOR PROJECTS

A review of existing and proposed major capital projects in Nova Scotia provides the basis for a solid economic performance over the medium term. The major projects are centered around Nova Scotia ocean industry cluster – shipbuilding and offshore oil and gas exploration.

SHIPBUILDING

1) Combat shipbuilding - $25 billion, 2012 – 2030

The Irving Halifax Shipyard was awarded the $25 billion contract to construct Arctic/offshore patrol ships and Canadian surface combatants ships.

2) Frigate Modernization and Life Extension Contract

The Halifax Shipyard was awarded one of two contracts to upgrade the Halifax class patrol frigates for the Canadian navy. The modernization will include a new command and control system, new radar capability, a new electronic warfare system and upgraded communications and missiles. Separate refit and stand-alone projects will include installation of new mechanical systems and modifications to accommodate the new Cyclone helicopters and new military satellite communications system.

OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION

1) Deep Panuke Natural Gas Development, 2008 - 2012

First gas from EnCana’s $960 million project near Sable Island is planned for the fourth quarter of 2011. The delivery of the production field centre (PFC) by Single Buoy Moorings Inc. (SBM) is expected in late June with hook-up and commissioning in the third quarter. SBM was awarded the contract to construct and operate the $350 million PFC (which is not included in the $960 million construction cost). The PFC will be leased by EnCana for the duration of operations at Deep Panuke. Irving Shipbuilding delivered a $60 million supply boat for the project in February that will also be leased for the project. Work highlights for 2011 include: the return of UK- based Subsea 7 (formerly Acergy) who will install the subsea lines to the PFC, Tideway of the Netherlands will begin rock placement operations on the flowlines and the gas export pipeline and Aecon Fabco of Nova Scotia will continue to work on protection structures for various components of the project. Natural gas reserves

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

are estimated to be 632 billion cubic feet with production peaking at 300 million cubic feet per day. Repsol YPF, the lead partner in the Canaport LNG project in Saint John, signed a deal in 2009 to purchase all the gas produced from Deep Panuke.

2) Shell Canada Offshore Exploration Program - $97 million, 2013 – 2022

Shell Canada has successfully bid on a set of offshore permits totaling $971 million which will see survey work starting in 2013.

Other major projects (over $300 million) are:

• Bedford West Development - $1 billion, 2008 – 2027 • The Ravines of Bedford South - $600 million, 2003 – 2017 • King’s Wharf Waterfront Development - $500 million, 2010 – 2017 • Sydney Tar Ponds Clean-up - $400 million, 2005 – 2014 • Russell Lake West Development - $400 million, 2005 – 2013 • Portland Hills - $370 million, 2000 – 2016 • Gas Tax Funding for Municipalities - $335 million, 2007 – 2014 • School Construction Program - $307 million, 2009 – 2015 • Dalhousie University Capital Projects - $304 million, 2008 – 2013 • Bedford Common Development - $300 million, 2006 – 2017 • Hubbards Residential Development - $300 million, 2010 -2017

In addition, there are a number of large projects (over $300 million) nearing approval:

• Shell Canada Offshore Oil and Gas Exploration - $971 million • Maritime Link Power Transmission Line - $600 million, 2013 – 2016 • Wind Power Expansion - $500 million, 2013 – 2014 • Halifax Convention Centre - $500 million, 2011 – • Donkin Coal Mine Development - $350 million, 2011 – 2013

Large projects (over $300 million) under active consideration:

• Forest Lakes Country Club - $1 billion • Strait Area Container Terminal - $475 million • Bayer’s Lake Business Park Expansion - $300 million

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

APPENDIX B – FORECAST TABLES

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

2021 122,372 596,699 227,158 946,229 427,481 2,681 2,681

2020 123,113 603,647 220,644 947,403 426,143 3,061 3,061

2019 123,787 610,526 213,928 948,241 424,590

3,462

2018 124,667 616,746 207,348 948,762 422,781 3,853 2017 125,513 622,174 201,307 948,994 420,671 4,168 4,168 2016 126,555 626,983 195,411 948,949 418,412 4,538 4,538 2015 127,698 631,702 189,258 948,658 415,788 4,738 4,738 2014 129,416 635,609 183,093 948,118 412,957 4,836 4,836 2013 130,917 639,644 176,798 947,359 410,031 4,891 4,891 2012 132,733 643,810 169,851 946,394 407,069 4,944 4,944 2011 134,831 647,595 162,780 945,206 403,874 4,750 4,750 Demographic Indicators Demographic Year Population 0-14 Population 15-64 Population 65+ Total Population Households Housing Starts Model Economic - Demographic Canmac Source:

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

APPENDIX C – HALIFAX SHIPYARD IMPACT

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

Table C1 – Halifax Shipyard Project Nova Scotia Key Economic Indicators Year Real GDP at market Labour Force Employment prices (millions of constant (2002$) 2012 344 2,454 4,423 2013 352 2,708 4,880 2014 426 3,275 5,909 2015 417 2,973 5,354 2016 399 2,840 5,094 2017 514 3,531 6,337 2018 559 3,800 6,799 2019 854 5,543 9,966 2020 991 6,400 11,495 2021 977 6,393 11,419 2022 896 5,944 10,530 2023 923 6,083 10,728 2024 883 5,784 10,115 2025 893 5,795 10,080 2026 884 5,693 9,840 2027 887 5,629 9,666 2028 886 5,557 9,478 2029 887 5,496 9,311 2030 891 5,452 9,177 Source: Conference Board of Canada

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

96 63 40 46 934 167 345 2030 3,725 5,686 1,801 9,177

- 87 70 40 38 914 175 369 2029 3,816 5,802 1,817 9,311

- 84 77 39 33 898 184 396 2028 3,921 5,920 1,846 9,478

- 81 86 39 27 895 199 425 2027 4,037 6,029 1,888 9,666

- 99 38 21 132 952 208 387 2026 4,146 6,105 1,888 9,840

- 39 17 125 946 121 218 427 2025 4,285 6,284 1,903 10,080

- 36 12 958 173 114 214 465 2024 4,332 6,297 1,845 10,115

- 41 20 188 116 247 512 2023 1,027 4,644 6,557 2,019 10,728

- 37 11 928 171 137 223 516 2022 4,586 6,593 1,914 10,530

- 45 22 120 114 242 467 2021 1,068 5,026 7,252 2,089 11,419

- 84 50 34 127 240 353 2020 1,171 5,095 7,397 2,040 11,495

- 68 46 36 114 234 275 2019 1,085 4,423 6,292 9,966 1,815

- 82 27 12 115 581 152 288 2018 2,999 4,272 6,799 1,270

- 70 26 15 113 540 147 281 2017 2,805 3,942 6,337 1,203

- 3 93 17 117 356 108 233 931 2016 2,254 3,236 5,094

- 70 15 19 114 394 101 247 992 2015 2,380 3,402 5,354

- 82 75 28 23 112 480 2014 2,634 2,816 1,147 5,909 1,146

- 60 60 33 23 109 526 232 865 902 2013 2,174 4,880

- 86 92 31 39 26 348 490 909 2012 1,969 2,402 4,423

- Wholesale & retail trade retail & Wholesale Unemployment Transportation warehousing & Table C2 - Project -Table C2 Halifax Shipyard Incremental Employment Canada of Board Conference Source: Year Manufacturing Finance, insurance real & estate Construction Total Employment Other commercial service industries Public administration defence & Agriculture & other primary sector primary other & Agriculture Utilities