Macquarie Backwardation Vs Contango Index
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Futures and Options Workbook
EEXAMININGXAMINING FUTURES AND OPTIONS TABLE OF 130 Grain Exchange Building 400 South 4th Street Minneapolis, MN 55415 www.mgex.com [email protected] 800.827.4746 612.321.7101 Fax: 612.339.1155 Acknowledgements We express our appreciation to those who generously gave their time and effort in reviewing this publication. MGEX members and member firm personnel DePaul University Professor Jin Choi Southern Illinois University Associate Professor Dwight R. Sanders National Futures Association (Glossary of Terms) INTRODUCTION: THE POWER OF CHOICE 2 SECTION I: HISTORY History of MGEX 3 SECTION II: THE FUTURES MARKET Futures Contracts 4 The Participants 4 Exchange Services 5 TEST Sections I & II 6 Answers Sections I & II 7 SECTION III: HEDGING AND THE BASIS The Basis 8 Short Hedge Example 9 Long Hedge Example 9 TEST Section III 10 Answers Section III 12 SECTION IV: THE POWER OF OPTIONS Definitions 13 Options and Futures Comparison Diagram 14 Option Prices 15 Intrinsic Value 15 Time Value 15 Time Value Cap Diagram 15 Options Classifications 16 Options Exercise 16 F CONTENTS Deltas 16 Examples 16 TEST Section IV 18 Answers Section IV 20 SECTION V: OPTIONS STRATEGIES Option Use and Price 21 Hedging with Options 22 TEST Section V 23 Answers Section V 24 CONCLUSION 25 GLOSSARY 26 THE POWER OF CHOICE How do commercial buyers and sellers of volatile commodities protect themselves from the ever-changing and unpredictable nature of today’s business climate? They use a practice called hedging. This time-tested practice has become a stan- dard in many industries. Hedging can be defined as taking offsetting positions in related markets. -
The Information Content of Put Warrant Issues
The Information Content of Put Warrant Issues Scott Gibson a Paul Povel b Rajdeep Singh b February 2006 a Department of Economics and Finance, School of Business, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA 23187. b Department of Finance, Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota, 321 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455. Email: [email protected] (Gibson), [email protected] (Povel) and [email protected] (Singh). We are grateful to Sugato Bhattacharyya, Francesca Cornelli, Gustavo Grullon, Dirk Jenter, Jack Kareken, Ross Levine, Bob McDonald, Roni Michaely, Sheridan Titman, Andrew Winton, and seminar participants at the 11th annual Financial Economics and Accounting conference at Ann Arbor, MI, and at University of Minnesota and Cornell University for their helpful comments. The Information Content of Put Warrant Issues Abstract We analyze why ¯rms may want to issue put warrants, i.e., promises to repurchase their own shares at a given price in the future. We describe four alternative explanations, one of which is novel: that put warrants are issued by ¯rms that wish to signal their good future prospects to their investors (who undervalue the ¯rms in the eyes of their managers). We test the validity of the four alternative explanations, using a new, hand-collected data set on put warrant issues in the U.S. between 1993 and 1999. We ¯nd evidence that is inconsistent with three of the four explanations. Only the signaling explanation is consistent with the empirical evidence. Put warrant issuers strongly outperform their peers in the years after the put warrant issues; they enjoy valuable and improving investment opportunities, and they invest heavily. -
Evaluating the Performance of the WTI
An Evaluation of the Performance of Oil Price Benchmarks During the Financial Crisis Craig Pirrong Professor of Finance Energy Markets Director, Global Energy Management Institute Bauer College of Business University of Houston I. IntroDuction The events of late‐summer, 2008 through the spring of 2009 have attracted considerable attention to the performance of oil price benchmarks, most notably the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract (“WTI” or “CL” hereafter) and ICE Futures’ Brent crude oil contract (“Brent futures” or “CB” hereafter). In particular, the behavior of spreads between the prices of futures contracts of different maturities, and between futures prices and cash prices during the period following the Lehman Brothers collapse has sparked allegations that futures prices have become disconnected from the underlying cash market fundamentals. The WTI contract has been the subject of particular criticisms alleging the unrepresentativeness of the Midcontinent market as a global price benchmark. I have analyzed extensive data from the crude oil cash and futures markets to evaluate the performance of the WTI and Brent futures contracts during the LH2008‐FH2009 period. Although the analysis focuses on this period, it relies on data extending back to 1990 in order to put the performance in historical context. I have also incorporated some data on physical crude market fundamentals, most 1 notably stocks, as these are essential in providing an evaluation of contract performance and the relation between pricing and fundamentals. My conclusions are as follows: 1. The October, 2008‐March 2009 period was one of historically unprecedented volatility. By a variety of measures, volatility in this period was extremely high, even compared to the months surrounding the First Gulf War, previously the highest volatility period in the modern oil trading era. -
Asset Swaps and Credit Derivatives
PRODUCT SUMMARY A SSET S WAPS Creating Synthetic Instruments Prepared by The Financial Markets Unit Supervision and Regulation PRODUCT SUMMARY A SSET S WAPS Creating Synthetic Instruments Joseph Cilia Financial Markets Unit August 1996 PRODUCT SUMMARIES Product summaries are produced by the Financial Markets Unit of the Supervision and Regulation Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Product summaries are pub- lished periodically as events warrant and are intended to further examiner understanding of the functions and risks of various financial markets products relevant to the banking industry. While not fully exhaustive of all the issues involved, the summaries provide examiners background infor- mation in a readily accessible form and serve as a foundation for any further research into a par- ticular product or issue. Any opinions expressed are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System. Should the reader have any questions, comments, criticisms, or suggestions for future Product Summary topics, please feel free to call any of the members of the Financial Markets Unit listed below. FINANCIAL MARKETS UNIT Joseph Cilia(312) 322-2368 Adrian D’Silva(312) 322-5904 TABLE OF CONTENTS Asset Swap Fundamentals . .1 Synthetic Instruments . .1 The Role of Arbitrage . .2 Development of the Asset Swap Market . .2 Asset Swaps and Credit Derivatives . .3 Creating an Asset Swap . .3 Asset Swaps Containing Interest Rate Swaps . .4 Asset Swaps Containing Currency Swaps . .5 Adjustment Asset Swaps . .6 Applied Engineering . .6 Structured Notes . .6 Decomposing Structured Notes . .7 Detailing the Asset Swap . -
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in Conservatorship: Frequently Asked Questions
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in Conservatorship: Frequently Asked Questions Updated May 31, 2019 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R44525 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in Conservatorship: Frequently Asked Questions Summary Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are chartered by Congress as government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to provide liquidity in the mortgage market and promote homeownership for underserved groups and locations. The GSEs purchase mortgages, retain the credit risk (for a fee), and package them into mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) that they either keep as investments or sell to institutional investors. In the years following the housing and mortgage market turmoil that began around 2007, the GSEs experienced financial difficulty. By 2008, the GSEs’ financial condition had weakened, generating concerns over their ability to meet their combined obligations on $1.2 trillion in bonds and $3.7 trillion in MBSs that they had guaranteed at the time. In response, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the GSEs’ primary regulator, took control of them in a process known as conservatorship. Subject to the terms of the Senior Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements (PSPAs) between the U.S. Treasury and the GSEs, Treasury provided funds to keep the GSEs solvent. The GSEs initially agreed to pay Treasury a 10% cash dividend on funds received, and dividends were suspended for all other GSE stockholders. If the GSEs had enough profit at the end of the quarter, the dividend came out of the profit. When the GSEs did not have enough cash to pay their dividend to Treasury, they asked for additional cash to make the payment instead of issuing additional stock. -
Encana Distinguished Lecture Series
Oil Futures Prices and OPEC Spare Capacity J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities Encana Distinguished Lecture Series September 18, 2014 Ms. Hilary Till, Principal, Premia Risk Consultancy, Inc., http://www.premiarisk.com; Research Associate, EDHEC-Risk Institute, http://www.edhec-risk.com; and Co-Editor, Intelligent Commodity Investing, http://www.riskbooks.com/intelligent-commodity-investing Disclaimers • This presentation is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. • The opinions expressed during this presentation are the personal opinions of Hilary Till and do not necessarily reflect those of other organizations with which Ms. Till is affiliated. • The information contained in this presentation has been assembled from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by the presenter. • Any (inadvertent) errors and omissions are the responsibility of Ms. Till alone. 2 Oil Futures Prices and OPEC Spare Capacity I. Crude Oil’s Importance for Commodity Indexes II. Structural Curve Shape of Individual Futures Contracts III. Structural Curve Shape and the Implications for Crude Oil Futures Contracts IV. Commodity Futures Curve Shape and Inventories Icon above is based on the statue in the Chicago Board of Trade plaza. 3 Oil Futures Prices and OPEC Spare Capacity V. Special Features of Crude Oil Markets VI. What Happens When OPEC Spare Capacity Becomes Quite Low? VII. The Plausible Link Between OPEC Spare Capacity and a Crude Oil Futures Curve Shape VIII. Current (Official) Expectations on OPEC Spare Capacity IX. Trading and Investment Conclusion 4 Oil Futures Prices and OPEC Spare Capacity Appendix A: Portfolio-Level Returns from Rebalancing Appendix B: Month-to-Month Factors Influencing a Crude Oil Futures Curve Appendix C: Consideration of the “1986 Oil Tactic” 5 I. -
Collateralized Loan Obligations (Clos) July 2021 ASSET MANAGEMENT | FACT SHEET
® Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) July 2021 ASSET MANAGEMENT | FACT SHEET Conning believes that CLOs are a compelling asset class for insurers in today’s market. As floating-rate securities, they offer income protection in varying market environments while also minimizing duration. At the same time, CLO securities (i.e. tranches) typically offer higher yields than similarly rated corporate bonds and other structured products. The asset class also provides strong capital preservation through structural protections and investor-oriented covenants. Historically, the CLO structure has proven to be extremely resilient through multiple market cycles. In fact there has never been a default in the AAA and AA -rated CLO debt tranches.1 Negative correlation to U.S. Treasury Bonds and low correlations to U.S. investment grade corporate bonds and equities present valuable diversification benefits. CLOs also offer an opportunity to access debt issuers that do not participate in the high-yield bond markets. How CLOs Work Team The CLO collateral manager purchases a portfolio of loans (typically 150-300) Andrew Gordon using the proceeds from the sale of CLO tranches (debt & equity). The interest Octagon, CEO earned from the loan collateral pool is used to pay the coupon to the CLO liabili- 37 years of experience ties. The residual cash flow, after paying the interest on the CLO liabilities and all expenses, is distributed to the holders of the CLO equity. Notably, loan portfolio Gretchen Lam, CFA losses are first absorbed by these equity investors. CLOs are typically rated by Octagon, Senior Portfolio Manager S&P, Moody’s and / or Fitch. -
Inflation Expectations and the News
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Inflation Expectations and the News Michael D. Bauer Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco March 2014 Working Paper 2014-09 http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/wp2014-09.pdf The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Inflation Expectations and the News Michael D. Bauer∗ March 27, 2014 Abstract This paper provides new evidence on the importance of inflation expectations for vari- ation in nominal interest rates, based on both market-based and survey-based measures of inflation expectations. Using the information in TIPS breakeven rates and inflation swap rates, I document that movements in inflation compensation are important for explaining variation in long-term nominal interest rates, both unconditionally as well as conditionally on macroeconomic data surprises. Daily changes in inflation compensation and changes in long-term nominal rates generally display a close statistical relationship. The sensitivity of inflation compensation to macroeconomic data surprises is substantial, and it explains a sizable share of the macro response of nominal rates. The paper also documents that survey expectations of inflation exhibit significant comovement with variation in nominal interest rates, as well as significant responses to macroeconomic news. Keywords: inflation expectations, macroeconomic -
VIX Futures As a Market Timing Indicator
Journal of Risk and Financial Management Article VIX Futures as a Market Timing Indicator Athanasios P. Fassas 1 and Nikolas Hourvouliades 2,* 1 Department of Accounting and Finance, University of Thessaly, Larissa 41110, Greece 2 Department of Business Studies, American College of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki 55535, Greece * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +30-2310-398385 Received: 10 June 2019; Accepted: 28 June 2019; Published: 1 July 2019 Abstract: Our work relates to the literature supporting that the VIX also mirrors investor sentiment and, thus, contains useful information regarding future S&P500 returns. The objective of this empirical analysis is to verify if the shape of the volatility futures term structure has signaling effects regarding future equity price movements, as several investors believe. Our findings generally support the hypothesis that the VIX term structure can be employed as a contrarian market timing indicator. The empirical analysis of this study has important practical implications for financial market practitioners, as it shows that they can use the VIX futures term structure not only as a proxy of market expectations on forward volatility, but also as a stock market timing tool. Keywords: VIX futures; volatility term structure; future equity returns; S&P500 1. Introduction A fundamental principle of finance is the positive expected return-risk trade-off. In this paper, we examine the dynamic dependencies between future equity returns and the term structure of VIX futures, i.e., the curve that connects daily settlement prices of individual VIX futures contracts to maturities across time. This study extends the VIX futures-related literature by testing the market timing ability of the VIX futures term structure regarding future stock movements. -
What's Price Got to Do with Term Structure?
What’s Price Got To Do With Term Structure? An Introduction to the Change in Realized Roll Yields: Redefining How Forward Curves Are Measured Contributors: Historically, investors have been drawn to the systematic return opportunities, or beta, of commodities due to their potentially inflation-hedging and Jodie Gunzberg, CFA diversifying properties. However, because contango was a persistent market Vice President, Commodities condition from 2005 to 2011, occurring in 93% of the months during that time, [email protected] roll yield had a negative impact on returns. As a result, it may have seemed to some that the liquidity risk premium had disappeared. Marya Alsati-Morad Associate Director, Commodities However, as discussed in our paper published in September 2013, entitled [email protected] “Identifying Return Opportunities in A Demand-Driven World Economy,” the environment may be changing. Specifically, the world economy may be Peter Tsui shifting from one driven by expansion of supply to one driven by expansion of Director, Index Research & Design demand, which could have a significant impact on commodity performance. [email protected] This impact would be directly related to two hallmarks of a world economy driven by expansion of demand: the increasing persistence of backwardation and the more frequent flipping of term structures. In order to benefit in this changing economic environment, the key is to implement flexibility to keep pace with the quickly changing term structures. To achieve flexibility, there are two primary ways to modify the first-generation ® flagship index, the S&P GSCI . The first method allows an index to select contracts with expirations that are either near- or longer-dated based on the commodity futures’ term structure. -
Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities
www.pwc.com 2015 Derivative instruments and hedging activities www.pwc.com Derivative instruments and hedging activities 2013 Second edition, July 2015 Copyright © 2013-2015 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the United States member firm, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. This publication has been prepared for general information on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice on facts and circumstances specific to any person or entity. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication. The information contained in this material was not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, for purposes of avoiding penalties or sanctions imposed by any government or other regulatory body. PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, its members, employees and agents shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person or entity who relies on this publication. The content of this publication is based on information available as of March 31, 2013. Accordingly, certain aspects of this publication may be superseded as new guidance or interpretations emerge. Financial statement preparers and other users of this publication are therefore cautioned to stay abreast of and carefully evaluate subsequent authoritative and interpretative guidance that is issued. This publication has been updated to reflect new and updated authoritative and interpretative guidance since the 2012 edition. -
Structural Position-Taking in Crude Oil Futures Contracts
Structural Position-Taking in Crude Oil Futures Contracts November 2015 Hilary Till Research Associate, EDHEC-Risk Institute Principal, Premia Research LLC Abstract Should an investor enter into long-term positions in oil futures contracts? In answering this question, this paper will cover the following three considerations: (1) the case for structural positions in crude oil futures contracts; (2) useful indicators for avoiding crash risk; and (3) financial asset diversification for downside hedging of oil price risk. This paper will conclude by noting the conditions under which one might consider including oil futures contracts in an investment portfolio. This paper is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. The views expressed in this article are the personal opinions of Hilary Till and do not necessarily reflect the views of institutions with which Ms. Till is affiliated. Research assistance from Katherine Farren, CAIA, of Premia Risk Consultancy, Inc. is gratefully acknowledged. EDHEC is one of the top five business schools in France. Its reputation is built on the high quality of its faculty and the privileged relationship with professionals that the school has cultivated since its establishment in 1906. EDHEC Business School has decided to draw on its extensive knowledge of the professional environment and has therefore focused its research on themes that satisfy the needs of professionals. EDHEC pursues an active research policy in the field of finance. EDHEC-Risk Institute carries out numerous research programmes in the areas of asset allocation and risk management in both the 2 traditional and alternative investment universes.