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Donald Trump Surprised Many by Staying Atop the GOP Presidential Polls for So Long in 2015

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Donald Trump Surprised Many by Staying Atop the GOP Presidential Polls for So Long in 2015 1/13/2016 2016 primary elections: Top races to watch - POLITICO 2016 Top 9 primaries to watch in 2016 Members of Congress from both parties will face dangerous challenges long before November. By SCOTT BLAND, THEODORIC MEYER, ELENA SCHNEIDER and KEVIN ROBILLARD | 01/02/16 08:01 AM EST | Updated 01/02/16 07:29 PM EST Sen. John McCain’s unfavorable ratings among Republicans are a warning sign after years of GOP primary trouble. | Getty Donald Trump surprised many by staying atop the GOP presidential polls for so long in 2015. But a huge chunk of voters previewed his rise when they spent all of 2014 actually casting ballots for “outsider” candidates. That's why even though only four http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/senate-house-primaries-to-watch-2016-217118 1/11 1/13/2016 2016 primary elections: Top races to watch - POLITICO members of Congress lost primaries in 2014, the political environment is more dangerous for them, particularly Republicans, than it has been in decades. The primary headliner in 2014 was Dave Brat, the Republican college professor who shockingly took down House Majority Leader Eric Cantor — and got potential primary challengers around the country thinking: “Why not me?” While few other incumbents lost, more than usual got pulled into tricky intraparty contests. Three Republican senators got less than 50 percent of the vote in their primaries, while two others got less than 60 percent. On the House side, 16 Republicans and three Democrats finished below that 60 percent threshold in 2014, about double the rate of “close calls” in the preceding decade. More media attention and money than ever is fueling anti-incumbent campaigns: Candidates challenging sitting senators in 2014 primaries raised about as much money for those elections as their counterparts from 2008, 2010 and 2012 put together. 2016 Kids and candidates a potent combination By BEN SCHRECKINGER Primaries are so volatile and fluid that this list is bound to change — in fact, it did just last week, when GOP Rep. Richard Hanna decided to retire rather than run for reelection in 2016, when he was set to face another tough primary challenge. So far, though, nine incumbent primary challenges stick out as particularly notable, interesting or dangerous heading into the election year. Here they are: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/senate-house-primaries-to-watch-2016-217118 2/11 1/13/2016 2016 primary elections: Top races to watch - POLITICO Rep. Frank Guinta (pictured in 2010) admitted this year to campaign finance violations that he had denied since 2010. | Getty 1. New Hampshire’s 1st District: GOP Rep. Frank Guinta Guinta came under heavy pressure to step down this past spring after admitting to campaign finance violations that he had denied since 2010. Plenty of politicians have survived a flap over donations, but this one was different: Sen. Kelly Ayotte, the New Hampshire Union Leader and other top state Republicans called for Guinta to resign, and his poll numbers sank. But Guinta insisted he’d remain in office and run for reelection, creating an opening for a primary challenge. Dan Innis, the former University of New Hampshire business school dean who ran a strong campaign against Guinta in 2014, when the seat was held by a Democrat, is challenging him again. But state Rep. Pamela Tucker is also considering a run, which could potentially split the anti-Guinta vote and help the incumbent win the nomination again. Even that could be difficult, though: Only 5 percent of Republicans said they'd definitely vote for Guinta in a recent WMUR Granite State Poll, while 33 percent said they definitely wouldnt vote for him. Also, whoever wins the nomination will face a tough general election in a prototypical swing district next year. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/senate-house-primaries-to-watch-2016-217118 3/11 1/13/2016 2016 primary elections: Top races to watch - POLITICO A member of Rep. Mike Honda’s own party could end his congressional career in 2016. | Getty 2. California’s 17th District: Democratic Rep. Mike Honda OK, this one isn’t technically a primary. But make no mistake: A member of Honda’s own party could end his congressional career in 2016. Democrat Ro Khanna took advantage of California’s nonpartisan, top-two primary system to set up a rare intraparty general election fight with Honda in 2014. Now, Khanna is back after an unexpectedly close, 4-percentage-point loss, and he has swept up endorsements from former Honda supporters like Secretary of State Alex Padilla while Honda has faced a string of ethics questions. If Honda can’t arrest Khanna’s upward momentum in 2016, he could be the latest incumbent to fall victim to an intraparty challenger since California installed its new election rules in 2012. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/senate-house-primaries-to-watch-2016-217118 4/11 1/13/2016 2016 primary elections: Top races to watch - POLITICO Becky Gerritson has gone after Rep. Martha Roby (pictured) for voting for a spending bill that would fund Amtrak, among other things. | Getty 3. Alabama’s 2nd District: GOP Rep. Martha Roby Capitol Hill incumbents could get a sense of the electorate’s mood on the very first day of the 2016 congressional primaries, March 1. Becky Gerritson, who could be one of the tea party’s clearest avatars among next year’s candidates, has gone after Roby for voting for a spending bill that would fund Amtrak, among other things. “This is a very conservative district and every conservative organizations rates her tenure in Congress a failure,” Gerritson said at her campaign’s launch party. Roby has a 56 percent lifetime rating from Club for Growth, and a 54 percent lifetime rating from Heritage Action for America. The three-term incumbent has a substantial cash advantage, with about $734,000 in her campaign account at the end of the third quarter. But outside groups have aired radio ads bashing her voting record, and heavy turnout by Donald Trump or Ted Cruz supporters in the simultaneous GOP presidential primary could give Gerritson a boost. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/senate-house-primaries-to-watch-2016-217118 5/11 1/13/2016 2016 primary elections: Top races to watch - POLITICO Rep. Scott DesJarlais barely survived a primary challenge last year after the transcript from his divorce trial became public. | AP Photo 4. Tennessee’s 4th District: GOP Rep. Scott DesJarlais DesJarlais barely survived a primary challenge last year after the transcript from his divorce trial became public. It revealed that DeJarlais, a physician, had slept with patients and supported his ex-wife's decision to have two abortions. (DesJarlais is now adamantly anti-abortion.) Grant Starrett, a young lawyer originally from California, is running to unseat DesJarlais this time around, but he hasn’t attacked DesJarlais over the divorce revelations (at least not yet). Instead, Starrett is trying to run to DesJarlais’ right as a constitutional conservative. It won't be easy — DesJarlais, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, is one of the more conservative members of Congress. But Starrett has also built an unusual cash advantage for a challenger, with about $694,000 at the end of the third quarter to DesJarlais‘ $208,000. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/senate-house-primaries-to-watch-2016-217118 6/11 1/13/2016 2016 primary elections: Top races to watch - POLITICO A quirk of North Carolina election law could help Rep. Renee Ellmers survive the primary. | Getty 5. North Carolina’s 2nd District: GOP Rep. Renee Ellmers The conservative Club for Growth doesn’t always win when it supports incumbent primary challengers, but its record in those contests — and the money it sends to challengers — means it’s worth taking note when they get involved. The Club anointed retired businessman Jim Duncan with its first challenger endorsement of 2016, setting up a showdown with the establishment-backed Ellmers. Once again, the increased turnout from the presidential race adds a level of uncertainty to this contest, and a quirk of North Carolina election law could help Ellmers survive, too. Like many Southern states, North Carolina candidates can go to one-on-one primary runoffs if no candidate gets enough votes, but Ellmers would need a 40-percent plurality to avoid a matchup with a single challenger instead of a crowded field. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/senate-house-primaries-to-watch-2016-217118 7/11 1/13/2016 2016 primary elections: Top races to watch - POLITICO Rep. Gene Green has been aggressively touting support from Latino leaders who have worked with him for years. | AP Photo 6. Texas’ 29th District: Democratic Rep. Gene Green However critical the Latino vote has become in some states, there’s still more potential than actual political influence in the population. Former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia hopes to show that 2016 is the year that will change. He has no policy quarrel with Green, but Green’s Houston district is nearly 80 percent Latino, and the two-decade incumbent is white. Garcia’s made his Democratic primary expressly about identity politics, and if he can activate a new pool of voters, he could surprise Green. In response, Green has been aggressively touting support from Latino leaders who have worked with him for years. It will be Garcia’s daunting task — one that has fazed many Latino candidates before him — to mobilize Hispanics who do not often vote to support his campaign. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/senate-house-primaries-to-watch-2016-217118 8/11 1/13/2016 2016 primary elections: Top races to watch - POLITICO Sen.
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